{
  "alt": "Dot chart in six panels of the share giving a doubting answer: an inaccurate count expected before the election, votes counted fairly less than most of the time, little or no trust in local election officials, Trump the legitimate 2020 winner, the FBI account of the January 2021 events, and Harris the legitimate 2024 winner. Rows are all adult citizens, Democrats, adults naming neither party and Republicans. The Republican share is {fact:acc_low_rep} on the count against {fact:acc_low_dem} for Democrats, and {fact:trump20_rep} on the 2020 winner against {fact:trump20_dem}. On the 2024 winner the Democratic share is {fact:harris24_dem} and the Republican share {fact:harris24_rep}. A second view removes leaners from the party groups.",
  "caption": "Republican dots are to the right of Democratic dots in five panels and to the left in the panel on the 2024 winner. The neither party dot lies between the two parties in four of the six panels. Each dot is the weighted share giving the answer named above the panel among adult citizens who answered, and each line is a 95% interval that follows the sampling design.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 23.3875,
      "conf_low": 20.1678,
      "estimate": 21.7776,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 5478,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.73493,
      "conf_low": 6.67992,
      "estimate": 8.20742,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 2638,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.6695,
      "conf_low": 23.1441,
      "estimate": 29.9068,
      "group": "Neither party",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 373,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.9423,
      "conf_low": 32.3057,
      "estimate": 35.124,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 2444,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.3969,
      "conf_low": 25.9593,
      "estimate": 27.6781,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 4926,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.2321,
      "conf_low": 17.5485,
      "estimate": 19.8903,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 2407,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.1187,
      "conf_low": 36.4469,
      "estimate": 44.7828,
      "group": "Neither party",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 320,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 35.8182,
      "conf_low": 30.4922,
      "estimate": 33.1552,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 2177,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.2124,
      "conf_low": 20.8567,
      "estimate": 22.5345,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 5243,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.7843,
      "conf_low": 9.98367,
      "estimate": 11.884,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 2551,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.3895,
      "conf_low": 23.339,
      "estimate": 30.8643,
      "group": "Neither party",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 349,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 35.8066,
      "conf_low": 30.2343,
      "estimate": 33.0205,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 2323,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 30.9988,
      "conf_low": 27.3122,
      "estimate": 29.1555,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 4612,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.7372,
      "conf_low": 3.32535,
      "estimate": 4.53128,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 2297,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 40.4985,
      "conf_low": 24.4873,
      "estimate": 32.4929,
      "group": "Neither party",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 289,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 58.4789,
      "conf_low": 52.6171,
      "estimate": 55.548,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 2009,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.4405,
      "conf_low": 22.5904,
      "estimate": 24.5154,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 4551,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.98035,
      "conf_low": 3.46785,
      "estimate": 4.7241,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 2291,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.022,
      "conf_low": 20.1271,
      "estimate": 28.0746,
      "group": "Neither party",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 284,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.7124,
      "conf_low": 43.0145,
      "estimate": 46.3635,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 1965,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.567,
      "conf_low": 8.03163,
      "estimate": 9.29933,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 4633,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.8706,
      "conf_low": 12.4351,
      "estimate": 14.6528,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 2283,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.2107,
      "conf_low": 9.50109,
      "estimate": 16.3559,
      "group": "Neither party",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 293,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.37208,
      "conf_low": 1.24905,
      "estimate": 2.31056,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 2042,
      "variant": "with leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.3875,
      "conf_low": 20.1678,
      "estimate": 21.7776,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 5478,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.99998,
      "conf_low": 5.43053,
      "estimate": 7.21525,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 1926,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.1222,
      "conf_low": 20.7792,
      "estimate": 23.9507,
      "group": "Independents and leaners",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 1795,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.8248,
      "conf_low": 32.5046,
      "estimate": 35.6647,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)",
      "n": 1734,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.3969,
      "conf_low": 25.9593,
      "estimate": 27.6781,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 4926,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.5038,
      "conf_low": 15.8688,
      "estimate": 18.6863,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 1765,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.7294,
      "conf_low": 27.2408,
      "estimate": 30.9851,
      "group": "Independents and leaners",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 1597,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.3334,
      "conf_low": 30.4087,
      "estimate": 33.8711,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)",
      "n": 1542,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.2124,
      "conf_low": 20.8567,
      "estimate": 22.5345,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 5243,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.1005,
      "conf_low": 7.65059,
      "estimate": 9.87553,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 1863,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.8444,
      "conf_low": 23.0887,
      "estimate": 26.4665,
      "group": "Independents and leaners",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 1715,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.0615,
      "conf_low": 29.361,
      "estimate": 32.7112,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)",
      "n": 1645,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 30.9988,
      "conf_low": 27.3122,
      "estimate": 29.1555,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 4612,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.28058,
      "conf_low": 2.46827,
      "estimate": 3.87443,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 1684,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 31.028,
      "conf_low": 23.7264,
      "estimate": 27.3772,
      "group": "Independents and leaners",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 1487,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 63.6274,
      "conf_low": 56.229,
      "estimate": 59.9282,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)",
      "n": 1424,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.4405,
      "conf_low": 22.5904,
      "estimate": 24.5154,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 4551,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.58137,
      "conf_low": 3.32237,
      "estimate": 4.95187,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 1681,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.5272,
      "conf_low": 22.1511,
      "estimate": 25.8391,
      "group": "Independents and leaners",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 1459,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.9572,
      "conf_low": 42.2875,
      "estimate": 46.1224,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)",
      "n": 1400,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.567,
      "conf_low": 8.03163,
      "estimate": 9.29933,
      "group": "All adult citizens",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 4633,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.2088,
      "conf_low": 12.9686,
      "estimate": 15.5887,
      "group": "Democrats",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 1675,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.9452,
      "conf_low": 6.72542,
      "estimate": 8.83533,
      "group": "Independents and leaners",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 1497,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.81702,
      "conf_low": 1.10648,
      "estimate": 2.46175,
      "group": "Republicans",
      "measure": "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)",
      "n": 1446,
      "variant": "without leaners"
    }
  ],
  "id": "counts_and_legitimacy",
  "notes": [
    "The first view counts leaners with the party they lean toward and shows adults who name neither party separately. The second view counts only strong and not very strong identifiers as Democrats or Republicans and groups the remaining adults as independents and leaners.",
    "Two measures come from the pre-election interview and use the pre-election weight; the other four come from the post-election interview and use the post-election weight. Party identification comes from the pre-election interview in all six.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from a Taylor-series variance that uses the survey strata and primary sampling units, with the t distribution and the design degrees of freedom. A cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of 100; no plotted cell fell below that floor.",
    "Refusals, break-offs and respondents not asked are left out of each share. The paper questionnaire omitted most of these questions."
  ],
  "source": "ANES 2024 Time Series, pre-election interviews (August to November 2024) and post-election interviews (November 2024 to February 2025); weighted (V240107a and V240107b); 95% design-based intervals",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "All adult citizens": "total",
      "Democrats": "dem",
      "Independents and leaners": "ind",
      "Neither party": "ind",
      "Republicans": "rep"
    },
    "facet": "measure",
    "facetColumns": 3,
    "group": "group",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "legend": false,
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      70
    ],
    "xDomains": {
      "Expected count inaccurate (before the election)": [
        0,
        50
      ],
      "FBI account of the January 2021 events (after)": [
        0,
        60
      ],
      "Harris the legitimate 2024 winner (after)": [
        0,
        30
      ],
      "Little or no trust in local election officials (before)": [
        0,
        50
      ],
      "Trump the legitimate 2020 winner (after)": [
        0,
        70
      ],
      "Votes counted fairly less than most of the time (after)": [
        0,
        60
      ]
    },
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0,
      "suffix": "%"
    },
    "xLabel": "Share of the group (%)",
    "y": "group"
  },
  "subtitle": "Share giving the doubting answer on six measures, by party identification; two measures from the pre-election interview and four from the post-election interview, 2024",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "variant",
        "label": "Grouping"
      },
      {
        "key": "measure",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Republicans doubted the count and the 2020 result more often than Democrats did, and Democrats doubted the 2024 result more often",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "variant": "with leaners"
      },
      "id": "with",
      "label": "With leaners"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "variant": "without leaners"
      },
      "id": "without",
      "label": "Without leaners"
    }
  ]
}