{
  "alt": "A scatter plot with one point for each of the {fact:n_anes_years} ANES surveys. The horizontal axis is the share of the president's party saying the economy got better and the vertical axis is the in-party premium, which never exceeds that share. The {fact:n_low} surveys with a premium below {fact:low_cut} points are labelled by year. All of them except 1994 lie at the left, at or below {fact:in_share_max_low5}. The 1994 survey has an in-party share of {fact:in_share_1994} and a premium of {fact:anes_prem_1994}. The other {fact:n_high} surveys have in-party shares of at least {fact:in_share_min_high}.",
  "caption": "Surveys at the left are those in which the president's own party was least likely to say the economy got better, and the premium cannot exceed that share, which the dashed y = x line marks. The horizontal rule separates the {fact:n_low} surveys with a premium below {fact:low_cut} points, which are labelled by year. 1994 lies apart from the other low surveys.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 3.40461,
      "conf_low": -0.583293,
      "group": "Premium below 10 points",
      "in_share": 4.27873,
      "label": "1980",
      "n": 1341,
      "premium": 1.41066,
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.4851,
      "conf_low": 11.8396,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 22.7586,
      "label": "1982",
      "n": 1193,
      "premium": 16.1623,
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.1454,
      "conf_low": 33.7768,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 63.8249,
      "label": "1984",
      "n": 1881,
      "premium": 37.9611,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.6455,
      "conf_low": 10.5157,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 32.3179,
      "label": "1986",
      "n": 1798,
      "premium": 14.5806,
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.0586,
      "conf_low": 14.597,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 29.0886,
      "label": "1988",
      "n": 1721,
      "premium": 18.3278,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.95368,
      "conf_low": -1.62973,
      "group": "Premium below 10 points",
      "in_share": 3.66197,
      "label": "1990",
      "n": 1710,
      "premium": 0.161972,
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.62525,
      "conf_low": 3.68166,
      "group": "Premium below 10 points",
      "in_share": 8.0983,
      "label": "1992",
      "n": 2135,
      "premium": 5.65346,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.25407,
      "conf_low": -1.23526,
      "group": "Premium below 10 points",
      "in_share": 37.2117,
      "label": "1994",
      "n": 1560,
      "premium": 4.00941,
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.6352,
      "conf_low": 17.0544,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 48.5649,
      "label": "1996",
      "n": 1537,
      "premium": 22.3448,
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.6213,
      "conf_low": 8.89958,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 53.6849,
      "label": "1998",
      "n": 1114,
      "premium": 15.2604,
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.5089,
      "conf_low": 18.1091,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 49.605,
      "label": "2000",
      "n": 1555,
      "premium": 23.309,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.92672,
      "conf_low": 0.171221,
      "group": "Premium below 10 points",
      "in_share": 6.71014,
      "label": "2002",
      "n": 1368,
      "premium": 3.04897,
      "year": 2002
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.0133,
      "conf_low": 26.9858,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 42.5653,
      "label": "2004",
      "n": 1064,
      "premium": 32.4995,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.9969,
      "conf_low": 0.313325,
      "group": "Premium below 10 points",
      "in_share": 3.53361,
      "label": "2008",
      "n": 2013,
      "premium": 2.15511,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.3541,
      "conf_low": 36.4322,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 48.8125,
      "label": "2012",
      "n": 5083,
      "premium": 39.3931,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.9805,
      "conf_low": 30.544,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 44.9989,
      "label": "2016",
      "n": 3660,
      "premium": 33.7622,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.3342,
      "conf_low": 28.6688,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 36.2067,
      "label": "2020",
      "n": 7254,
      "premium": 31.0015,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.7901,
      "conf_low": 28.7874,
      "group": "Premium of 10 points or more",
      "in_share": 36.5377,
      "label": "2024",
      "n": 4877,
      "premium": 31.7887,
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "premium_vs_in_share",
  "notes": [
    "The chart shows each survey's estimate without its interval; the data table gives the interval of each premium."
  ],
  "source": "American National Election Studies Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Premium below 10 points": "highlight",
      "Premium of 10 points or more": "accent"
    },
    "group": "group",
    "highlight": [
      "1980",
      "1990",
      "1992",
      "1994",
      "2002",
      "2008"
    ],
    "identity": true,
    "label": "label",
    "quadrants": {
      "labels": [
        "",
        "Premium of 10 points or more",
        "",
        "Premium below 10 points"
      ],
      "x": -100,
      "y": 10
    },
    "x": "in_share",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      70
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "suffix": "%"
    },
    "xLabel": "Said the economy got better, president's party (% of partisans)",
    "y": "premium",
    "yDomain": [
      -5,
      45
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "In-party premium (percentage points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "In-party premium against the share of the president's party saying the economy got better, one point per ANES survey, 1980 to 2024; percent and percentage points",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Survey year"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "in_share",
        "label": "President's party saying better (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "premium",
        "label": "Premium (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The premium is below {fact:low_cut} points in {fact:n_low} ANES surveys, and in all but 1994 no more than {fact:in_share_max_low5} of the president's party said the economy got better",
  "type": "scatter",
  "width": "wide"
}