{
  "abortion_gap_1980": {
    "ci": [
      -1.8,
      8.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "3.5",
    "estimand": "weighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'",
    "n": 1313,
    "note": "",
    "period": "1980",
    "population": "Democratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion question",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "percentage points",
    "value": 3.53928,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)"
  },
  "abortion_gap_2024": {
    "ci": [
      48.8,
      55.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "52.3",
    "estimand": "weighted Democratic share minus weighted Republican share; the ANES four-category abortion question, answer 'always allowed as a matter of personal choice'",
    "n": 4666,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "Democratic and Republican identifiers (leaners included) who answered the ANES abortion question",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "percentage points",
    "value": 52.3394,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z; equals 1 for every respondent from 1980 to 1990, so those years are unweighted)"
  },
  "anes_n_1972": {
    "display": "1,545",
    "estimand": "count of respondents who answered both questions",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972",
    "population": "ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "respondents",
    "value": 1545,
    "weights": "unweighted count of respondents"
  },
  "anes_n_2024": {
    "display": "4,716",
    "estimand": "count of respondents who answered both questions",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "respondents",
    "value": 4716,
    "weights": "unweighted count of respondents"
  },
  "anes_r_1972": {
    "ci": [
      0.27,
      0.36
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.32",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 1545,
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972",
    "population": "ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.320158,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "anes_r_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.7,
      0.74
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.72",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 4716,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.722886,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "band": {
    "display": "5",
    "estimand": "definition of 'near the national swing'",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "half-width of the band around the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 5,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ces_r_2008": {
    "ci": [
      0.67,
      0.68
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.68",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 29939,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008",
    "population": "CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded)",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.677448,
    "weights": "weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years)"
  },
  "ces_r_2016": {
    "ci": [
      0.58,
      0.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.59",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 58788,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded)",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.590016,
    "weights": "weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years)"
  },
  "ces_r_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.71,
      0.73
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.72",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 55835,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded)",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.719097,
    "weights": "weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years)"
  },
  "counties_within_1976": {
    "display": "21.2%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 21.2219,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "counties_within_latest": {
    "display": "75.6%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of matched counties",
    "value": 75.5706,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "econcult_r_1984": {
    "ci": [
      0.05,
      0.15
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.10",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval)",
    "n": 1508,
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984",
    "population": "adults with at least two of three items answered on each index",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.101899,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "econcult_r_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.48,
      0.55
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.51",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval)",
    "n": 4387,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "adults with at least two of three items answered on each index",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.514442,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "econcult_rc_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.65,
      0.74
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.69",
    "estimand": "observed correlation divided by the square root of the product of the two alphas (bootstrap percentile interval)",
    "n": 4387,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "adults with at least two of three items answered on each index",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.69338,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "economy_own_party_gap": {
    "ci": [
      32.5,
      35.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "34.0",
    "estimand": "mean of the yearly premiums, each survey counted once; the interval covers sampling error within each survey only",
    "n": 20874,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2024 (four surveys)",
    "population": "ANES respondents who identify with or lean toward a party and answered the item",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "percentage points",
    "value": 33.9864,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "gss_ip_2018": {
    "ci": [
      0.51,
      0.59
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.55",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 1920,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2018, in-person interviews",
    "population": "GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "source": "gss",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.554609,
    "weights": "weight_use"
  },
  "gss_ip_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      0.61
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.56",
    "estimand": "weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "n": 1029,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024, in-person interviews",
    "population": "GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement",
    "source": "gss",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1",
    "value": 0.559311,
    "weights": "weight_use"
  },
  "income_gap_2008": {
    "ci": [
      -12.9,
      -5.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−9.1",
    "estimand": "Democratic share in the highest bracket minus that in the lowest; weighted regression on the two brackets, state-clustered standard errors",
    "n": 5534,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008",
    "population": "highest minus lowest bracket, two-party presidential voters who reported household income",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "percentage points of Democratic two-party vote share",
    "value": -9.14298,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative"
  },
  "income_gap_2024": {
    "ci": [
      1.1,
      10.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+5.7",
    "estimand": "Democratic share in the highest bracket minus that in the lowest; weighted regression on the two brackets, state-clustered standard errors",
    "n": 12281,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "highest minus lowest bracket, two-party presidential voters who reported household income",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "percentage points of Democratic two-party vote share",
    "value": 5.67832,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative"
  },
  "n_pairs": {
    "display": "39",
    "estimand": "count of pairs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1868-2024",
    "population": "counties with returns, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs of consecutive presidential elections",
    "value": 39,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "nat_swing_latest": {
    "display": "−6.1",
    "estimand": "change in the summed two-party margin of matched counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -6.09671,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "off_gss_k": {
    "display": "19",
    "estimand": "count of matched survey years",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1974-2024",
    "population": "years in which both the ANES and the GSS asked both questions",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "survey years",
    "value": 19,
    "weights": "count of yearly estimates, each weighted"
  },
  "off_gss_sig": {
    "display": "17",
    "estimand": "count of matched years in which the interval of the ANES minus GSS difference lies above zero",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1974-2024",
    "population": "matched ANES and GSS survey years",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "survey years",
    "value": 17,
    "weights": "count of yearly estimates, each weighted"
  },
  "off_inperson_k": {
    "display": "4",
    "estimand": "count of matched years with mode information in both surveys",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008-2024",
    "population": "years in which both the ANES and the GSS identify in-person interviews",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "survey years",
    "value": 4,
    "weights": "count of yearly estimates, each weighted"
  },
  "other_party_1978": {
    "ci": [
      47.1,
      48.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "48.0",
    "estimand": "weighted mean rating (95% interval from the Kish effective sample size)",
    "n": 1723,
    "note": "",
    "period": "1978",
    "population": "partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer",
    "value": 47.9954,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "other_party_2024": {
    "ci": [
      19.8,
      21.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "20.6",
    "estimand": "weighted mean rating (95% interval from the Kish effective sample size)",
    "n": 5080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "partisans, leaners included, with a rating of both parties",
    "source": "anes",
    "unit": "points on the 0 to 100 feeling thermometer",
    "value": 20.6299,
    "weights": "weight (VCF0009z)"
  },
  "party_gap_max": {
    "ci": [
      62.5,
      65.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "64.1",
    "estimand": "largest party gap over the issues (border wall)",
    "n": 60875,
    "note": "",
    "period": "CES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was asked",
    "population": "Democrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or more",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)",
    "value": 64.1331,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)"
  },
  "party_gap_mean": {
    "ci": [
      41.8,
      44.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "43.1",
    "estimand": "average over the issues of the party gap: Democratic minus Republican share taking the Democratic side, averaged over deep-red and deep-blue counties",
    "n": 118638,
    "note": "",
    "period": "CES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was asked",
    "population": "Democrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or more",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)",
    "value": 43.0936,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)"
  },
  "party_gap_min": {
    "ci": [
      12,
      14.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "13.3",
    "estimand": "smallest party gap over the issues (universal background checks)",
    "n": 96237,
    "note": "",
    "period": "CES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was asked",
    "population": "Democrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or more",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)",
    "value": 13.3144,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)"
  },
  "place_gap_max": {
    "ci": [
      9.2,
      14.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "12.0",
    "estimand": "largest place gap over the issues (abortion)",
    "n": 113602,
    "note": "",
    "period": "CES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was asked",
    "population": "Democrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or more",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)",
    "value": 11.9612,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)"
  },
  "place_gap_mean": {
    "ci": [
      4.7,
      6.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.6",
    "estimand": "average over the issues of the place gap: deep-blue minus deep-red county share taking the Democratic side, averaged over Democrats and Republicans",
    "n": 118638,
    "note": "",
    "period": "CES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was asked",
    "population": "Democrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or more",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)",
    "value": 5.63409,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)"
  },
  "place_gap_min": {
    "ci": [
      0.9,
      3.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "2.1",
    "estimand": "smallest place gap over the issues (universal background checks)",
    "n": 96237,
    "note": "",
    "period": "CES survey years 2013 to 2021, each issue in the years it was asked",
    "population": "Democrats and Republicans (three-point party identification, leaners excluded) in counties with a two-party presidential margin of 20 points or more",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points (difference in the share taking the Democratic side, on a 0 to 100 scale)",
    "value": 2.0564,
    "weights": "weight_cumulative (CES cumulative weight; each survey year carries the same total weight)"
  },
  "south_above_1976": {
    "display": "93.5%",
    "estimand": "share of counties that swung 5 or more points more toward the Democrats than the nation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1972 to 1976",
    "population": "counties in the Census South region",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of counties in the Census South region",
    "value": 93.5302,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  }
}