{
  "alt": "Dot chart in four panels, one for each span of presidential cycles, with one row for each issue and an interval on each dot and a rule at no change. Border security and a path to legal status, asked over the longest span, have the largest rises and the widest intervals. Among the issues asked over the 2012 to 2020 cycles, abortion has the largest rise. The dot for universal background checks lies to the left of the rule, and the intervals for legal gay marriage, repeal of the ACA and cutting legal immigration reach across it.",
  "caption": "The interval for the change lies above zero on {fact:n_party_up} issues and includes zero on {fact:n_party_flat}, and the two issues asked over the longest span have the widest intervals. Each dot is the change in the party gap, in points, between the first and the last presidential cycle in which the issue was asked; the panels group issues by that span. Whiskers are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "change": 16.6802,
      "change_per_cycle": 4.17005,
      "conf_high": 26.0167,
      "conf_low": 9.37397,
      "first_cycle": "2004",
      "first_years": "2007",
      "issue": "Border security",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 2767,
      "place_change": 4.3303,
      "place_change_hi": 10.5612,
      "place_change_lo": -2.62807,
      "span": "Cycles 2004 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 15.5464,
      "change_per_cycle": 3.8866,
      "conf_high": 22.9003,
      "conf_low": 10.1714,
      "first_cycle": "2004",
      "first_years": "2007",
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 2767,
      "place_change": -4.45224,
      "place_change_hi": 0.890536,
      "place_change_lo": -9.76437,
      "span": "Cycles 2004 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 13.3504,
      "change_per_cycle": 6.67522,
      "conf_high": 17.0482,
      "conf_low": 9.81255,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2014 and 2015",
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 20940,
      "place_change": -5.75915,
      "place_change_hi": -2.38512,
      "place_change_lo": -8.71442,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 10.3486,
      "change_per_cycle": 5.17428,
      "conf_high": 13.4224,
      "conf_low": 7.57361,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2013 to 2015",
      "issue": "Assault weapons ban",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 25669,
      "place_change": -1.51405,
      "place_change_hi": 1.3709,
      "place_change_lo": -4.54811,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 6.81566,
      "change_per_cycle": 3.40783,
      "conf_high": 10.18,
      "conf_low": 3.84065,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2013 to 2015",
      "issue": "Concealed carry",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 25716,
      "place_change": -0.8888,
      "place_change_hi": 1.77145,
      "place_change_lo": -3.69766,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 3.51051,
      "change_per_cycle": 1.75526,
      "conf_high": 7.22728,
      "conf_low": 0.256658,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2014 and 2015",
      "issue": "EPA regulates CO2",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 20800,
      "place_change": -0.963293,
      "place_change_hi": 2.2609,
      "place_change_lo": -4.44894,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 1.96796,
      "change_per_cycle": 0.983978,
      "conf_high": 4.14422,
      "conf_low": -0.0415444,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2012 to 2015",
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 31281,
      "place_change": -3.10133,
      "place_change_hi": -0.949859,
      "place_change_lo": -5.28993,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": -3.26709,
      "change_per_cycle": -1.63355,
      "conf_high": -0.724813,
      "conf_low": -5.98062,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2013 to 2015",
      "issue": "Background checks",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2021",
      "n": 9240,
      "place_change": -1.271,
      "place_change_hi": 1.11727,
      "place_change_lo": -3.55697,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": -2.08352,
      "change_per_cycle": -2.08352,
      "conf_high": 0.540215,
      "conf_low": -4.33667,
      "first_cycle": "2012",
      "first_years": "2012 to 2015",
      "issue": "Gay marriage",
      "last_cycle": "2016",
      "last_years": "2016",
      "n": 24606,
      "place_change": -4.24023,
      "place_change_hi": -1.8389,
      "place_change_lo": -6.37307,
      "span": "Cycles 2012 to 2016"
    },
    {
      "change": 6.06313,
      "change_per_cycle": 6.06313,
      "conf_high": 8.27436,
      "conf_low": 4.12183,
      "first_cycle": "2016",
      "first_years": "2017 and 2018",
      "issue": "Border wall",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 29562,
      "place_change": -0.299226,
      "place_change_hi": 1.55654,
      "place_change_lo": -2.23515,
      "span": "Cycles 2016 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": 5.68284,
      "change_per_cycle": 5.68284,
      "conf_high": 8.45167,
      "conf_low": 3.17447,
      "first_cycle": "2016",
      "first_years": "2018 and 2019",
      "issue": "Medicare for All",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020 and 2021",
      "n": 29844,
      "place_change": -1.60917,
      "place_change_hi": 0.818908,
      "place_change_lo": -4.13307,
      "span": "Cycles 2016 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "change": -0.486754,
      "change_per_cycle": -0.486754,
      "conf_high": 2.10078,
      "conf_low": -2.99412,
      "first_cycle": "2016",
      "first_years": "2018 and 2019",
      "issue": "Cut immigration",
      "last_cycle": "2020",
      "last_years": "2020",
      "n": 22064,
      "place_change": 0.17046,
      "place_change_hi": 2.38549,
      "place_change_lo": -2.01909,
      "span": "Cycles 2016 to 2020"
    }
  ],
  "id": "party_gap_change",
  "notes": [
    "Issues were asked over different spans, so the cycles differ by row. The survey years behind each cycle, the change per cycle and the change in the place gap with its interval are in the data table. The number in a tooltip is the size of the smaller of the two endpoint cycles.",
    "Universal background checks were not asked in 2020, so the last cycle for that issue rests on the 2021 survey alone.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that resamples whole states; they are model based and ignore the design of the panel."
  ],
  "source": "CES cumulative common content, 2006-2021; county returns for the two-party margin; weighted (weight_cumulative)",
  "spec": {
    "facet": "span",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No change",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "change",
    "xDomain": [
      -10,
      30
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Change in the party gap (points)",
    "y": "issue"
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the between-party gap in points (share taking the Democratic side), first to last presidential cycle in which each issue was asked, grouped by span; Democrats and Republicans in deep counties; CES surveys 2006 to 2021",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "issue",
        "label": "Issue"
      },
      {
        "key": "span",
        "label": "Cycles"
      },
      {
        "key": "first_years",
        "label": "Survey years, first cycle"
      },
      {
        "key": "last_years",
        "label": "Survey years, last cycle"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change",
        "label": "Party gap change"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "High"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change_per_cycle",
        "label": "Party gap change per cycle"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "place_change",
        "label": "Place gap change"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "place_change_lo",
        "label": "Place gap change, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "place_change_hi",
        "label": "Place gap change, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Smaller endpoint, n"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The party gap rose on {fact:n_party_up} of {fact:n_issues} issues over spans that differ by issue, and fell on background checks",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "id": "party",
      "label": "Party gap"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The interval for the change in the average place gap lies below zero on {fact:n_place_change_sig} issues, abortion, legal gay marriage and repeal of the ACA, and above zero on none. The place gap is averaged over Democrats and Republicans, and the panels and row order match the party gap view. Whiskers are 95% intervals.",
      "id": "place",
      "label": "Place gap",
      "spec": {
        "hi": "place_change_hi",
        "lo": "place_change_lo",
        "x": "place_change",
        "xDomain": [
          -10,
          15
        ],
        "xLabel": "Change in the place gap (points)"
      },
      "title": "The average place gap fell on {fact:n_place_change_sig} of {fact:n_issues} issues and rose on none"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}