{
  "alt": "Four small panels of lines with interval bands, two issues to a row. In {fact:n_party_up_panels} panels the dark between-party gap line rises from the left to the right; on repeal of the ACA it is nearly level. The blue and red place gap lines stay below the party gap line in every panel, with wide bands in the early cycles, and the Democratic line on a path to legal status drops between the 2012 and 2016 cycles.",
  "caption": "The dark between-party gap line rises from the first to the last cycle on {fact:n_party_up_panels} of the {fact:n_trend_items} issues and stays above both place gap lines in every cycle. Each panel is one issue; the solid blue line is the Democratic place gap and the dashed red line is the Republican place gap. Bands are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 33.0555,
      "conf_low": 20.7602,
      "cycle": 2004,
      "estimate": 27.7831,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 367,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2007"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.4465,
      "conf_low": 2.24088,
      "cycle": 2004,
      "estimate": 11.1574,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 367,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2007"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.27862,
      "conf_low": -3.50721,
      "cycle": 2004,
      "estimate": 1.94167,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 367,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2007"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.9106,
      "conf_low": 29.2611,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "estimate": 32.1363,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 2932,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2010 and 2011"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.77,
      "conf_low": 4.1866,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "estimate": 9.16143,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 2932,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2010 and 2011"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.89804,
      "conf_low": -0.59493,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "estimate": 2.74125,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 2932,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2010 and 2011"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.1248,
      "conf_low": 32.8824,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 35.6831,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 6215,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.5481,
      "conf_low": 5.48154,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 9.01864,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 6215,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.80074,
      "conf_low": 0.201159,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 3.77105,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 6215,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 41.9972,
      "conf_low": 37.7237,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 39.9621,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 5394,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2016 and 2017 and 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.7079,
      "conf_low": -0.0248725,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 1.8696,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 5394,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2016 and 2017 and 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.53891,
      "conf_low": -0.427703,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 3.48042,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 5394,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2016 and 2017 and 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45.3327,
      "conf_low": 41.4112,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 43.3295,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 4267,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.64791,
      "conf_low": -0.188804,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 1.70957,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 4267,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.2457,
      "conf_low": -0.421393,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 2.485,
      "issue": "Path to legal status",
      "n": 4267,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.9365,
      "conf_low": 20.5451,
      "cycle": 2004,
      "estimate": 30.1379,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 367,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2007"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.7173,
      "conf_low": -2.60102,
      "cycle": 2004,
      "estimate": 6.22346,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 367,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2007"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.40212,
      "conf_low": -11.5269,
      "cycle": 2004,
      "estimate": -2.82406,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 367,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2007"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 31.446,
      "conf_low": 26.9743,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "estimate": 29.4165,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 2932,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2010 and 2011"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.2839,
      "conf_low": 5.90756,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "estimate": 9.53835,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 2932,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2010 and 2011"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.73612,
      "conf_low": -1.52203,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "estimate": 2.25661,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 2932,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2010 and 2011"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 35.9277,
      "conf_low": 30.6009,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 33.1748,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 6215,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.61394,
      "conf_low": 2.39198,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 6.10327,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 6215,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.93817,
      "conf_low": 0.0902457,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 3.66639,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 6215,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.8719,
      "conf_low": 38.9068,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 40.9916,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 5396,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2016 and 2017 and 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.1803,
      "conf_low": 3.43409,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 6.79836,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 5396,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2016 and 2017 and 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.89726,
      "conf_low": 1.67036,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 4.02555,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 5396,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2016 and 2017 and 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 48.7914,
      "conf_low": 45.0766,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 46.8181,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 4271,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.842,
      "conf_low": 3.40399,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 7.49136,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 4271,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.64986,
      "conf_low": 1.95664,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 4.56865,
      "issue": "Border security",
      "n": 4271,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 55.8379,
      "conf_low": 51.7836,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 53.7876,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 6062,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.6226,
      "conf_low": 5.4864,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 8.59631,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 6062,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.66157,
      "conf_low": -0.362695,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 2.31703,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 6062,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2012 to 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 61.4545,
      "conf_low": 57.9805,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 59.5196,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 8476,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2016 to 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.0462,
      "conf_low": -1.75911,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 1.16979,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 8476,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2016 to 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.92466,
      "conf_low": 3.35874,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 5.24297,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 8476,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2016 to 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 57.6653,
      "conf_low": 54.2252,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 55.7555,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 4262,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.97075,
      "conf_low": -2.76425,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 0.216536,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 4262,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.04455,
      "conf_low": 1.65807,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 4.49414,
      "issue": "Repeal the ACA",
      "n": 4262,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.2949,
      "conf_low": 36.9244,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 39.6247,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 3052,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2014 and 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.1893,
      "conf_low": 9.60894,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 14.5859,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 3052,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2014 and 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.807,
      "conf_low": 8.99981,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "estimate": 13.8208,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 3052,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2014 and 2015"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.2414,
      "conf_low": 44.2859,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 46.456,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 8493,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2016 to 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.7442,
      "conf_low": 5.57465,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 9.15356,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 8493,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2016 to 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.3029,
      "conf_low": 11.3323,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "estimate": 15.5669,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 8493,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2016 to 2019"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 55.7186,
      "conf_low": 50.4168,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 52.9751,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 4273,
      "series": "Between-party gap",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.23226,
      "conf_low": 1.99527,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 4.89813,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 4273,
      "series": "Place gap, Democrats",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.6847,
      "conf_low": 7.51762,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "estimate": 11.9902,
      "issue": "Abortion legal",
      "n": 4273,
      "series": "Place gap, Republicans",
      "survey_years": "2020 and 2021"
    }
  ],
  "id": "gap_trend",
  "notes": [
    "A presidential cycle pools the surveys from one presidential election to the next and uses the county margin of that election. Not every issue was asked in every survey, so the first and last cycle of an issue can rest on one or two surveys. Survey years behind the first and last cycle of each panel: Path to legal status, 2004 cycle 2007 and 2020 cycle 2020 and 2021; Border security, 2004 cycle 2007 and 2020 cycle 2020 and 2021; Repeal the ACA, 2012 cycle 2012 to 2015 and 2020 cycle 2020 and 2021; Abortion legal, 2012 cycle 2014 and 2015 and 2020 cycle 2020 and 2021. The data table gives the survey years behind every point.",
    "The 2004 cycle rests on one survey year, so its bands are wide. A cycle with a party by county-type group below the suppression floor would be dropped; none was. The number in a tooltip is the smallest of the four party by county-type groups behind the estimate.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that resamples whole states; they are model based and ignore the design of the panel."
  ],
  "source": "CES cumulative common content, 2006-2021; county returns for the two-party margin; weighted (weight_cumulative)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Between-party gap": "total",
      "Place gap, Democrats": "dem",
      "Place gap, Republicans": "rep"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "Place gap, Republicans"
    ],
    "endLabels": false,
    "facet": "issue",
    "facetColumns": 2,
    "series": "series",
    "x": "cycle",
    "xDomain": [
      2003,
      2021
    ],
    "xLabel": "Presidential cycle (election year of the county margin)",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -20,
      70
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Gap in points"
  },
  "subtitle": "Gap in points (share taking the Democratic side) by presidential cycle, Democrats and Republicans in deep counties; four issues; CES surveys 2006 to 2021",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "issue",
        "label": "Issue"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Series"
      },
      {
        "key": "cycle",
        "label": "Presidential cycle"
      },
      {
        "key": "survey_years",
        "label": "Survey years"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Estimate"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "High"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Smallest group, n"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The party gap rose on {fact:n_party_up_panels} of these {fact:n_trend_items} issues across presidential cycles and stayed above both place gaps",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "full"
}