{
  "alt": "Line chart of support for universal background checks across seven bins of county margin, with five lines and interval bands. The Democratic and leaning Democratic lines sit near the top and are flat. The Republican line runs from {fact:bg_rep_min} to {fact:bg_rep_max} and rises a little. The independent and leaning Republican lines start lowest in the most Republican counties and rise to the right.",
  "caption": "Support is higher in the most Democratic bin than in the most Republican bin for independents with no lean and for Republican leaners, and shows no clear change for Democrats and Democratic leaners. Solid lines are Democrats, Republicans and independents, dashed lines are leaners (Lean Dem. and Lean Rep.), and bands are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "bin": "Below -40",
      "conf_high": 96.807,
      "conf_low": 94.8107,
      "estimate": 95.9125,
      "margin": -53.3459,
      "n": 7003,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-40 to -20",
      "conf_high": 95.8704,
      "conf_low": 94.2067,
      "estimate": 95.0199,
      "margin": -29.0913,
      "n": 11448,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-20 to -5",
      "conf_high": 96.7841,
      "conf_low": 95.4611,
      "estimate": 96.196,
      "margin": -12.7026,
      "n": 11168,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-5 to 5",
      "conf_high": 97.0911,
      "conf_low": 95.3119,
      "estimate": 96.2945,
      "margin": 0.11198,
      "n": 10899,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "5 to 20",
      "conf_high": 96.4638,
      "conf_low": 95.2266,
      "estimate": 95.8693,
      "margin": 12.2018,
      "n": 20631,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "20 to 40",
      "conf_high": 96.7006,
      "conf_low": 95.372,
      "estimate": 96.0359,
      "margin": 28.4766,
      "n": 17396,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "Above 40",
      "conf_high": 96.6123,
      "conf_low": 95.058,
      "estimate": 95.8031,
      "margin": 56.2558,
      "n": 22518,
      "party_id": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "bin": "Below -40",
      "conf_high": 96.6552,
      "conf_low": 92.9054,
      "estimate": 94.7658,
      "margin": -53.3459,
      "n": 2183,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "-40 to -20",
      "conf_high": 96.2329,
      "conf_low": 93.868,
      "estimate": 95.0592,
      "margin": -29.0913,
      "n": 3477,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "-20 to -5",
      "conf_high": 95.6601,
      "conf_low": 92.4117,
      "estimate": 94.0604,
      "margin": -12.7026,
      "n": 3152,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "-5 to 5",
      "conf_high": 96.7736,
      "conf_low": 93.5162,
      "estimate": 95.1767,
      "margin": 0.11198,
      "n": 2952,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "5 to 20",
      "conf_high": 97.0644,
      "conf_low": 95.6376,
      "estimate": 96.373,
      "margin": 12.2018,
      "n": 5520,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "20 to 40",
      "conf_high": 97.2275,
      "conf_low": 94.1051,
      "estimate": 95.6131,
      "margin": 28.4766,
      "n": 4321,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "Above 40",
      "conf_high": 97.1294,
      "conf_low": 95.4556,
      "estimate": 96.2083,
      "margin": 56.2558,
      "n": 4813,
      "party_id": "Lean Dem."
    },
    {
      "bin": "Below -40",
      "conf_high": 82.1172,
      "conf_low": 75.6493,
      "estimate": 78.951,
      "margin": -53.3459,
      "n": 5500,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-40 to -20",
      "conf_high": 83.9168,
      "conf_low": 79.8912,
      "estimate": 82.0604,
      "margin": -29.0913,
      "n": 6604,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-20 to -5",
      "conf_high": 85.3635,
      "conf_low": 78.8346,
      "estimate": 82.5061,
      "margin": -12.7026,
      "n": 5603,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-5 to 5",
      "conf_high": 87.8737,
      "conf_low": 82.4398,
      "estimate": 85.1754,
      "margin": 0.11198,
      "n": 4769,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "5 to 20",
      "conf_high": 86.6134,
      "conf_low": 83.5794,
      "estimate": 85.1298,
      "margin": 12.2018,
      "n": 8452,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "20 to 40",
      "conf_high": 87.7021,
      "conf_low": 83.3014,
      "estimate": 85.6718,
      "margin": 28.4766,
      "n": 6078,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "Above 40",
      "conf_high": 87.8103,
      "conf_low": 83.7644,
      "estimate": 86.0922,
      "margin": 56.2558,
      "n": 5701,
      "party_id": "Independents"
    },
    {
      "bin": "Below -40",
      "conf_high": 73.6783,
      "conf_low": 68.6744,
      "estimate": 70.9516,
      "margin": -53.3459,
      "n": 3870,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "-40 to -20",
      "conf_high": 74.7391,
      "conf_low": 68.6289,
      "estimate": 71.9121,
      "margin": -29.0913,
      "n": 4417,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "-20 to -5",
      "conf_high": 77.8784,
      "conf_low": 70.7619,
      "estimate": 74.3451,
      "margin": -12.7026,
      "n": 3652,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "-5 to 5",
      "conf_high": 78.9053,
      "conf_low": 73.1019,
      "estimate": 76.1454,
      "margin": 0.11198,
      "n": 2888,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "5 to 20",
      "conf_high": 81.738,
      "conf_low": 76.6734,
      "estimate": 79.3821,
      "margin": 12.2018,
      "n": 4687,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "20 to 40",
      "conf_high": 83.1516,
      "conf_low": 77.3655,
      "estimate": 80.468,
      "margin": 28.4766,
      "n": 3132,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "Above 40",
      "conf_high": 82.1545,
      "conf_low": 75.7359,
      "estimate": 79.2752,
      "margin": 56.2558,
      "n": 2270,
      "party_id": "Lean Rep."
    },
    {
      "bin": "Below -40",
      "conf_high": 81.7911,
      "conf_low": 78.6303,
      "estimate": 80.3076,
      "margin": -53.3459,
      "n": 11459,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-40 to -20",
      "conf_high": 82.3649,
      "conf_low": 78.7871,
      "estimate": 80.7341,
      "margin": -29.0913,
      "n": 13038,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-20 to -5",
      "conf_high": 83.1485,
      "conf_low": 79.2519,
      "estimate": 81.4999,
      "margin": -12.7026,
      "n": 9468,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "bin": "-5 to 5",
      "conf_high": 84.3775,
      "conf_low": 80.0262,
      "estimate": 82.2645,
      "margin": 0.11198,
      "n": 7663,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "bin": "5 to 20",
      "conf_high": 84.2832,
      "conf_low": 80.8475,
      "estimate": 82.8371,
      "margin": 12.2018,
      "n": 11619,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "bin": "20 to 40",
      "conf_high": 86.1745,
      "conf_low": 82.4464,
      "estimate": 84.4172,
      "margin": 28.4766,
      "n": 7804,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "bin": "Above 40",
      "conf_high": 85.6654,
      "conf_low": 80.2949,
      "estimate": 83.6594,
      "margin": 56.2558,
      "n": 5571,
      "party_id": "Republicans"
    }
  ],
  "id": "bg_checks_by_party_id",
  "notes": [
    "The vertical axis starts at {fact:bg_axis_start}%, not at zero, so slopes look steeper than in the county-margin figure with a full axis.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that resamples whole states; they are model based and ignore the design of the panel."
  ],
  "source": "CES cumulative common content, 2013-2021; county returns for the two-party margin; weighted (weight_cumulative)",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Democrats": "dem",
      "Independents": "ind",
      "Lean Dem.": "dem",
      "Lean Rep.": "rep",
      "Republicans": "rep"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "Lean Dem.",
      "Lean Rep."
    ],
    "series": "party_id",
    "x": "margin",
    "xDomain": [
      -70,
      70
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "County two-party margin (points, Democratic minus Republican)",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      60,
      100
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Share supporting (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Share supporting universal background checks (%) by party identification and two-party margin of the respondent's county, seven bins of counties; CES survey years 2013 to 2021",
  "title": "Support for background checks rises with county margin among independents and Republican leaners, not among Democrats",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}