{ "alt": "Two panels, Democrats and Republicans, each with three lines for the liberal, moderate and conservative shares. Among Democrats the liberal line rises and the conservative line falls. Among Republicans the conservative line rises and the liberal line falls, and in both panels the moderate line ends lower or level. The GSS view shows the same pattern from 1974. The CES view starts in 2006: the liberal line among Democrats rises from {fact:ces_dem_lib_2006} to {fact:ces_dem_lib_2024}, and the conservative line among Republicans goes from {fact:ces_rep_con_2006} to {fact:ces_rep_con_2024}.", "caption": "In the ANES and GSS views, the liberal share of Democrats and the conservative share of Republicans are larger at the end than at the start; in the ANES the opposite camps are smaller. Each line is the share of one party's identifiers in one camp. Liberal and conservative are the three points on each side of the middle in the ANES and GSS scales and the two points on each side in the CES scale.", "data": [ { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 39.5223, "conf_low": 32.7798, "estimate": 36.0825, "n": 776, "n_eff": 776, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1972 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 44.0291, "conf_low": 34.8476, "estimate": 39.3443, "n": 573, "n_eff": 431.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 40.2312, "conf_low": 33.1047, "estimate": 36.5946, "n": 725, "n_eff": 698.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 40.4059, "conf_low": 33.9867, "estimate": 37.1396, "n": 867, "n_eff": 867, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 42.1285, "conf_low": 33.7793, "estimate": 37.8641, "n": 515, "n_eff": 515, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 38.5977, "conf_low": 30.1291, "estimate": 34.238, "n": 479, "n_eff": 479, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 44.1021, "conf_low": 36.9449, "estimate": 40.4729, "n": 719, "n_eff": 719, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 39.0833, "conf_low": 32.4292, "estimate": 35.6873, "n": 793, "n_eff": 793, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 41.9165, "conf_low": 34.4016, "estimate": 38.0878, "n": 638, "n_eff": 638, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 40.4087, "conf_low": 33.1449, "estimate": 36.7013, "n": 673, "n_eff": 673, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 47.3801, "conf_low": 40.789, "estimate": 44.0583, "n": 871, "n_eff": 868, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1992 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 39.8024, "conf_low": 31.4408, "estimate": 35.5111, "n": 622, "n_eff": 499.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 45.1382, "conf_low": 36.8486, "estimate": 40.9289, "n": 667, "n_eff": 536.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 42.7495, "conf_low": 33.6831, "estimate": 38.1128, "n": 515, "n_eff": 437.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 50.2079, "conf_low": 38.1189, "estimate": 44.0756, "n": 319, "n_eff": 255.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 51.5711, "conf_low": 41.4797, "estimate": 46.4894, "n": 568, "n_eff": 371.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 49.3765, "conf_low": 39.2084, "estimate": 44.232, "n": 438, "n_eff": 362.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 55.8587, "conf_low": 47.5091, "estimate": 51.6957, "n": 894, "n_eff": 546.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 51.564, "conf_low": 46.3661, "estimate": 48.9623, "n": 2709, "n_eff": 1417.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 64.1699, "conf_low": 58.2045, "estimate": 61.2293, "n": 1467, "n_eff": 1021.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 67.3182, "conf_low": 62.8502, "estimate": 65.1174, "n": 3277, "n_eff": 1744.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2020 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 64.5451, "conf_low": 58.7743, "estimate": 61.701, "n": 2310, "n_eff": 1086.7, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 42.7852, "conf_low": 35.9284, "estimate": 39.3041, "n": 776, "n_eff": 776, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1972 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 42.3682, "conf_low": 33.2587, "estimate": 37.7049, "n": 573, "n_eff": 431.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.0231, "conf_low": 35.7961, "estimate": 39.3514, "n": 725, "n_eff": 698.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.0886, "conf_low": 36.5862, "estimate": 39.7924, "n": 867, "n_eff": 867, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 38.3747, "conf_low": 30.2091, "estimate": 34.1748, "n": 515, "n_eff": 515, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 44.7451, "conf_low": 35.9939, "estimate": 40.2923, "n": 479, "n_eff": 479, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 40.8672, "conf_low": 33.816, "estimate": 37.274, "n": 719, "n_eff": 719, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.17, "conf_low": 36.3743, "estimate": 39.7226, "n": 793, "n_eff": 793, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 38.254, "conf_low": 30.8973, "estimate": 34.4828, "n": 638, "n_eff": 638, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.1624, "conf_low": 33.8687, "estimate": 37.4443, "n": 673, "n_eff": 673, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 35.764, "conf_low": 29.5403, "estimate": 32.5754, "n": 871, "n_eff": 868, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1992 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 46.2375, "conf_low": 37.6196, "estimate": 41.8665, "n": 622, "n_eff": 499.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.482, "conf_low": 33.3274, "estimate": 37.3146, "n": 667, "n_eff": 536.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 45.0786, "conf_low": 35.9185, "estimate": 40.4151, "n": 515, "n_eff": 437.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 39.6684, "conf_low": 28.1526, "estimate": 33.6685, "n": 319, "n_eff": 255.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.2778, "conf_low": 27.8052, "estimate": 32.361, "n": 568, "n_eff": 371.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 44.8025, "conf_low": 34.7846, "estimate": 39.6855, "n": 438, "n_eff": 362.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 35.757, "conf_low": 27.9756, "estimate": 31.7388, "n": 894, "n_eff": 546.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 39.1116, "conf_low": 34.103, "estimate": 36.571, "n": 2709, "n_eff": 1417.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 31.3005, "conf_low": 25.7744, "estimate": 28.4567, "n": 1467, "n_eff": 1021.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 30.4577, "conf_low": 26.2342, "estimate": 28.2983, "n": 3277, "n_eff": 1744.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2020 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 32.9121, "conf_low": 27.4646, "estimate": 30.1183, "n": 2310, "n_eff": 1086.7, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.7643, "conf_low": 21.7126, "estimate": 24.6134, "n": 776, "n_eff": 776, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1972 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.1477, "conf_low": 19.2315, "estimate": 22.9508, "n": 573, "n_eff": 431.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.3602, "conf_low": 21.0317, "estimate": 24.0541, "n": 725, "n_eff": 698.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.9873, "conf_low": 20.3864, "estimate": 23.0681, "n": 867, "n_eff": 867, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 31.9896, "conf_low": 24.2591, "estimate": 27.9612, "n": 515, "n_eff": 515, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 29.556, "conf_low": 21.7738, "estimate": 25.4697, "n": 479, "n_eff": 479, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.4364, "conf_low": 19.3648, "estimate": 22.2531, "n": 719, "n_eff": 719, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.7051, "conf_low": 21.7203, "estimate": 24.5902, "n": 793, "n_eff": 793, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 31.0188, "conf_low": 24.1103, "estimate": 27.4295, "n": 638, "n_eff": 638, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 29.2928, "conf_low": 22.6901, "estimate": 25.8544, "n": 673, "n_eff": 673, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 26.295, "conf_low": 20.6723, "estimate": 23.3663, "n": 871, "n_eff": 868, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1992 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 26.4911, "conf_low": 19.1713, "estimate": 22.6224, "n": 622, "n_eff": 499.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.4404, "conf_low": 18.4739, "estimate": 21.7565, "n": 667, "n_eff": 536.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.5604, "conf_low": 17.8807, "estimate": 21.4721, "n": 515, "n_eff": 437.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.7474, "conf_low": 17.5867, "estimate": 22.2559, "n": 319, "n_eff": 255.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.5864, "conf_low": 17.3032, "estimate": 21.1496, "n": 568, "n_eff": 371.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 20.2149, "conf_low": 12.6608, "estimate": 16.0825, "n": 438, "n_eff": 362.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 19.9134, "conf_low": 13.6842, "estimate": 16.5654, "n": 894, "n_eff": 546.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 16.3942, "conf_low": 12.7314, "estimate": 14.4668, "n": 2709, "n_eff": 1417.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 12.3303, "conf_low": 8.5951, "estimate": 10.314, "n": 1467, "n_eff": 1021.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 7.8459, "conf_low": 5.5134, "estimate": 6.5843, "n": 3277, "n_eff": 1744.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2020 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 9.9613, "conf_low": 6.6947, "estimate": 8.1807, "n": 2310, "n_eff": 1086.7, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 16.0594, "conf_low": 10.6324, "estimate": 13.1092, "n": 595, "n_eff": 595, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1972 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 15.4393, "conf_low": 8.2702, "estimate": 11.3712, "n": 404, "n_eff": 303.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 12.531, "conf_low": 7.5884, "estimate": 9.7849, "n": 581, "n_eff": 558.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 12.8925, "conf_low": 7.8967, "estimate": 10.1243, "n": 563, "n_eff": 563, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 13.235, "conf_low": 7.2043, "estimate": 9.8143, "n": 377, "n_eff": 377, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 10.6882, "conf_low": 4.9814, "estimate": 7.3394, "n": 327, "n_eff": 327, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 14.0446, "conf_low": 9.2613, "estimate": 11.437, "n": 682, "n_eff": 682, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 13.5957, "conf_low": 8.778, "estimate": 10.9568, "n": 648, "n_eff": 648, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 12.4155, "conf_low": 7.8105, "estimate": 9.8765, "n": 648, "n_eff": 648, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 15.0633, "conf_low": 9.5974, "estimate": 12.0658, "n": 547, "n_eff": 547, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 11.7714, "conf_low": 7.5872, "estimate": 9.4745, "n": 759, "n_eff": 756.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1992 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 7.27, "conf_low": 3.5458, "estimate": 5.095, "n": 657, "n_eff": 547.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 8.7086, "conf_low": 4.2848, "estimate": 6.134, "n": 566, "n_eff": 460.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 11.7394, "conf_low": 5.8658, "estimate": 8.3443, "n": 407, "n_eff": 345.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 12.9997, "conf_low": 5.7862, "estimate": 8.7421, "n": 284, "n_eff": 239.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 11.4137, "conf_low": 6.1242, "estimate": 8.3981, "n": 603, "n_eff": 427.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 9.6688, "conf_low": 4.4277, "estimate": 6.5786, "n": 411, "n_eff": 351.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 7.8478, "conf_low": 3.4686, "estimate": 5.2418, "n": 554, "n_eff": 409.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 5.9123, "conf_low": 3.4988, "estimate": 4.5557, "n": 1904, "n_eff": 1161.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 5.3776, "conf_low": 2.997, "estimate": 4.0218, "n": 1482, "n_eff": 1063.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 4.7162, "conf_low": 2.9617, "estimate": 3.7413, "n": 3076, "n_eff": 1816.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2020 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 5.7938, "conf_low": 3.2841, "estimate": 4.3701, "n": 2172, "n_eff": 1034.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.3318, "conf_low": 29.7713, "estimate": 33.4454, "n": 595, "n_eff": 595, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1972 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.9036, "conf_low": 27.4189, "estimate": 32.4415, "n": 404, "n_eff": 303.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 33.9772, "conf_low": 26.3926, "estimate": 30.0486, "n": 581, "n_eff": 558.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 32.2813, "conf_low": 24.8496, "estimate": 28.4192, "n": 563, "n_eff": 563, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 27.5887, "conf_low": 19.1083, "estimate": 23.0769, "n": 377, "n_eff": 377, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 30.6868, "conf_low": 21.2539, "estimate": 25.6881, "n": 327, "n_eff": 327, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 28.6118, "conf_low": 22.1056, "estimate": 25.2199, "n": 682, "n_eff": 682, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 33.8914, "conf_low": 26.8353, "estimate": 30.2469, "n": 648, "n_eff": 648, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 28.3145, "conf_low": 21.6733, "estimate": 24.8457, "n": 648, "n_eff": 648, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.1387, "conf_low": 29.2763, "estimate": 33.0896, "n": 547, "n_eff": 547, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 30.1755, "conf_low": 23.8658, "estimate": 26.9039, "n": 759, "n_eff": 756.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1992 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 28.6498, "conf_low": 21.4252, "estimate": 24.8623, "n": 657, "n_eff": 547.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 26.6071, "conf_low": 18.9906, "estimate": 22.572, "n": 566, "n_eff": 460.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 31.4339, "conf_low": 22.1567, "estimate": 26.5371, "n": 407, "n_eff": 345.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 31.397, "conf_low": 20.4181, "estimate": 25.5214, "n": 284, "n_eff": 239.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 26.4524, "conf_low": 18.5807, "estimate": 22.2694, "n": 603, "n_eff": 427.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 27.4522, "conf_low": 18.7081, "estimate": 22.7859, "n": 411, "n_eff": 351.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 22.7145, "conf_low": 15.1772, "estimate": 18.6542, "n": 554, "n_eff": 409.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 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"conf_low": 59.9503, "estimate": 65.1186, "n": 407, "n_eff": 345.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 71.4542, "conf_low": 59.5223, "estimate": 65.7365, "n": 284, "n_eff": 239.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 73.5171, "conf_low": 64.8033, "estimate": 69.3325, "n": 603, "n_eff": 427.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 75.1539, "conf_low": 65.6708, "estimate": 70.6355, "n": 411, "n_eff": 351.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 79.9816, "conf_low": 71.7407, "estimate": 76.104, "n": 554, "n_eff": 409.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 76.199, "conf_low": 71.1432, "estimate": 73.7494, "n": 1904, "n_eff": 1161.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "ANES", "year": 2012 }, { 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"year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 39.3636, "conf_low": 30.5699, "estimate": 34.8377, "n": 719, "n_eff": 447.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1985 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 35.333, "conf_low": 27.7355, "estimate": 31.4099, "n": 703, "n_eff": 570.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 42.2936, "conf_low": 34.6294, "estimate": 38.3895, "n": 961, "n_eff": 615.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1987 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 43.4746, "conf_low": 35.398, "estimate": 39.3637, "n": 697, "n_eff": 558.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 45.4902, "conf_low": 36.9318, "estimate": 41.1441, "n": 666, "n_eff": 504.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1989 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 42.5794, "conf_low": 33.7506, "estimate": 38.0664, "n": 590, "n_eff": 461.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 43.3638, "conf_low": 34.9234, "estimate": 39.0618, "n": 655, "n_eff": 509.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1991 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 44.8567, "conf_low": 36.7941, "estimate": 40.7633, "n": 725, "n_eff": 567.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1993 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 42.198, "conf_low": 36.3677, "estimate": 39.2445, "n": 1370, "n_eff": 1074.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 39.8217, "conf_low": 33.8456, "estimate": 36.7829, "n": 1272, "n_eff": 996.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 41.8465, "conf_low": 35.776, "estimate": 38.7677, "n": 1274, "n_eff": 986.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 39.1609, "conf_low": 32.9494, "estimate": 35.9965, "n": 1189, "n_eff": 914, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 42.0693, "conf_low": 32.9126, "estimate": 37.378, "n": 596, "n_eff": 425.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 44.6286, "conf_low": 35.2042, "estimate": 39.8222, "n": 588, "n_eff": 410.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 45.3676, "conf_low": 40.0215, "estimate": 42.6732, "n": 1918, "n_eff": 1311.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 45.518, "conf_low": 37.9753, "estimate": 41.6981, "n": 954, "n_eff": 652.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 51.028, "conf_low": 42.8519, "estimate": 46.9193, "n": 932, "n_eff": 568.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 47.2129, "conf_low": 39.3435, "estimate": 43.2355, "n": 902, "n_eff": 605.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 44.9439, "conf_low": 38.2052, "estimate": 41.535, "n": 1143, "n_eff": 818, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 52.0565, "conf_low": 45.4096, "estimate": 48.7274, "n": 1334, "n_eff": 865.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 56.0205, "conf_low": 48.2813, "estimate": 52.1639, "n": 1013, "n_eff": 636.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2018 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 61.1277, "conf_low": 55.408, "estimate": 58.2958, "n": 1818, "n_eff": 1138.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2021 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 63.6821, "conf_low": 55.804, "estimate": 59.8064, "n": 1416, "n_eff": 591.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2022 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 62.7204, "conf_low": 54.8905, "estimate": 58.8616, "n": 1215, "n_eff": 603.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.2742, "conf_low": 35.7945, "estimate": 39.4727, "n": 789, "n_eff": 652.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 44.5007, "conf_low": 36.8083, "estimate": 40.5968, "n": 766, "n_eff": 622.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1975 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 46.2898, "conf_low": 38.6572, "estimate": 42.4284, "n": 791, "n_eff": 640.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 44.5661, "conf_low": 37.1091, "estimate": 40.7846, "n": 841, "n_eff": 663.7, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1977 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.8664, "conf_low": 35.1436, "estimate": 39.4208, "n": 756, "n_eff": 478.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 49.4363, "conf_low": 40.6274, "estimate": 44.9926, "n": 741, "n_eff": 486.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": 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"survey": "GSS", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.7877, "conf_low": 35.7509, "estimate": 38.726, "n": 1272, "n_eff": 996.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.9318, "conf_low": 35.8589, "estimate": 38.8521, "n": 1274, "n_eff": 986.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 46.7957, "conf_low": 40.38, "estimate": 43.5609, "n": 1189, "n_eff": 914, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 47.9193, "conf_low": 38.5469, "estimate": 43.172, "n": 596, "n_eff": 425.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.7852, "conf_low": 34.3952, "estimate": 38.9882, "n": 588, "n_eff": 410.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 42.2843, "conf_low": 36.9976, "estimate": 39.6106, "n": 1918, "n_eff": 1311.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 44.6776, "conf_low": 37.1574, "estimate": 40.864, "n": 954, "n_eff": 652.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.2518, "conf_low": 33.3311, "estimate": 37.2056, "n": 932, "n_eff": 568.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 43.3324, "conf_low": 35.5703, "estimate": 39.3844, "n": 902, "n_eff": 605.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 45.403, "conf_low": 38.6539, "estimate": 41.991, "n": 1143, "n_eff": 818, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 38.4679, "conf_low": 32.1143, "estimate": 35.2258, "n": 1334, "n_eff": 865.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 39.2646, "conf_low": 31.8505, "estimate": 35.4704, "n": 1013, "n_eff": 636.3, "party": "Democrats", 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"party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 26.6731, "conf_low": 20.2509, "estimate": 23.3084, "n": 841, "n_eff": 663.7, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1977 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 30.908, "conf_low": 22.9978, "estimate": 26.768, "n": 756, "n_eff": 478.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 30.9296, "conf_low": 23.0769, "estimate": 26.8216, "n": 741, "n_eff": 486.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 28.6544, "conf_low": 21.7011, "estimate": 25.0171, "n": 1041, "n_eff": 593.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 30.4749, "conf_low": 20.1728, "estimate": 24.9711, "n": 420, "n_eff": 268.7, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1983 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 31.5854, "conf_low": 23.5138, "estimate": 27.3645, "n": 724, "n_eff": 465.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 29.0264, "conf_low": 21.0455, "estimate": 24.8217, "n": 719, "n_eff": 447.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1985 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 29.0441, "conf_low": 21.9227, "estimate": 25.3182, "n": 703, "n_eff": 570.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 24.7018, "conf_low": 18.2416, "estimate": 21.2935, "n": 961, "n_eff": 615.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1987 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.6431, "conf_low": 20.5815, "estimate": 23.9343, "n": 697, "n_eff": 558.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 24.2356, "conf_low": 17.2018, "estimate": 20.4957, "n": 666, "n_eff": 504.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1989 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 28.9502, "conf_low": 21.0876, "estimate": 24.8108, "n": 590, "n_eff": 461.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 26.2705, "conf_low": 19.0416, "estimate": 22.45, "n": 655, "n_eff": 509.8, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1991 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.887, "conf_low": 20.8523, "estimate": 24.1961, "n": 725, "n_eff": 567.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1993 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.3617, "conf_low": 20.3521, "estimate": 22.7598, "n": 1370, "n_eff": 1074.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 27.2551, "conf_low": 21.9228, "estimate": 24.4911, "n": 1272, "n_eff": 996.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.0858, "conf_low": 19.8889, "estimate": 22.3802, "n": 1274, "n_eff": 986.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 23.1782, "conf_low": 17.9544, "estimate": 20.4426, "n": 1189, "n_eff": 914, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 23.4779, "conf_low": 15.9689, "estimate": 19.45, "n": 596, "n_eff": 425.4, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 25.3984, "conf_low": 17.5146, "estimate": 21.1896, "n": 588, "n_eff": 410.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 19.876, "conf_low": 15.745, "estimate": 17.7162, "n": 1918, "n_eff": 1311.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 20.5366, "conf_low": 14.7201, "estimate": 17.4379, "n": 954, "n_eff": 652.9, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 19.1065, "conf_low": 13.1018, "estimate": 15.8752, "n": 932, "n_eff": 568.6, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 20.6024, "conf_low": 14.5693, "estimate": 17.3801, "n": 902, "n_eff": 605.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 19.1717, "conf_low": 14.0897, "estimate": 16.474, "n": 1143, "n_eff": 818, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 18.642, "conf_low": 13.7518, "estimate": 16.0468, "n": 1334, "n_eff": 865.1, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 15.1516, "conf_low": 10.0316, "estimate": 12.3658, "n": 1013, "n_eff": 636.3, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2018 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 11.1479, "conf_low": 7.7647, "estimate": 9.3194, "n": 1818, "n_eff": 1138.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2021 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 12.8256, "conf_low": 7.9506, "estimate": 10.1308, "n": 1416, "n_eff": 591.5, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2022 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 14.1984, "conf_low": 9.1159, "estimate": 11.413, "n": 1215, "n_eff": 603.2, "party": "Democrats", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 23.4262, "conf_low": 15.3248, "estimate": 19.0483, "n": 419, "n_eff": 359.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 22.8116, "conf_low": 14.8107, "estimate": 18.4786, "n": 430, "n_eff": 360.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1975 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 23.2661, "conf_low": 14.9391, "estimate": 18.7496, "n": 404, "n_eff": 336.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 25.5941, "conf_low": 17.3323, "estimate": 21.1699, "n": 449, "n_eff": 373.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1977 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 25.2124, "conf_low": 15.9727, "estimate": 20.2008, "n": 469, "n_eff": 288.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 25.5406, "conf_low": 16.6199, "estimate": 20.728, "n": 448, "n_eff": 315.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 18.3592, "conf_low": 10.6731, "estimate": 14.0833, "n": 487, "n_eff": 314.9, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 20.5438, "conf_low": 10.0801, "estimate": 14.548, "n": 258, "n_eff": 174.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1983 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 16.5912, "conf_low": 9.3448, "estimate": 12.5257, "n": 520, "n_eff": 321.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 18.473, "conf_low": 11.4886, "estimate": 14.639, "n": 597, "n_eff": 393.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1985 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 18.118, "conf_low": 11.4441, "estimate": 14.4641, "n": 518, "n_eff": 426.9, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 21.1089, "conf_low": 13.7136, "estimate": 17.0961, "n": 541, "n_eff": 397.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1987 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 19.6383, "conf_low": 12.8765, "estimate": 15.9696, "n": 551, "n_eff": 450.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 20.356, "conf_low": 13.784, "estimate": 16.8154, "n": 612, "n_eff": 496.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1989 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 22.8252, "conf_low": 15.6284, "estimate": 18.9668, "n": 572, "n_eff": 454.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 21.6384, "conf_low": 14.9831, "estimate": 18.0732, "n": 624, "n_eff": 512.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1991 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 16.7007, "conf_low": 10.6779, "estimate": 13.406, "n": 622, "n_eff": 492.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1993 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 17.3176, "conf_low": 12.5964, "estimate": 14.8021, "n": 1101, "n_eff": 869.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 13.5557, "conf_low": 9.3474, "estimate": 11.2814, "n": 1040, "n_eff": 870.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 15.5576, "conf_low": 10.7941, "estimate": 12.9912, "n": 937, "n_eff": 766.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 15.603, "conf_low": 10.8048, "estimate": 13.017, "n": 924, "n_eff": 756.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 14.2602, "conf_low": 7.8375, "estimate": 10.6287, "n": 465, "n_eff": 356.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 13.7489, "conf_low": 7.6005, "estimate": 10.2743, "n": 504, "n_eff": 377.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 10.9058, "conf_low": 7.4246, "estimate": 9.015, "n": 1447, "n_eff": 1044, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 8.55, "conf_low": 4.2122, "estimate": 6.0256, "n": 657, "n_eff": 471.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 13.4372, "conf_low": 7.7786, "estimate": 10.2677, "n": 651, "n_eff": 444.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 11.5015, "conf_low": 5.7894, "estimate": 8.2035, "n": 585, "n_eff": 359.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 9.7932, "conf_low": 5.5474, "estimate": 7.3946, "n": 779, "n_eff": 589.9, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 8.9404, "conf_low": 5.0675, "estimate": 6.7508, "n": 911, "n_eff": 652.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 11.7206, "conf_low": 6.3979, "estimate": 8.6977, "n": 777, "n_eff": 435, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2018 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 5.215, "conf_low": 2.6367, "estimate": 3.7165, "n": 1228, "n_eff": 845.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2021 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 6.554, "conf_low": 2.6565, "estimate": 4.1916, "n": 1106, "n_eff": 421.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2022 }, { "camp": "Liberal", "conf_high": 7.9328, "conf_low": 4.1173, "estimate": 5.7339, "n": 1089, "n_eff": 580.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 44.2202, "conf_low": 34.1837, "estimate": 39.0865, "n": 419, "n_eff": 359.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1974 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 42.071, "conf_low": 32.1504, "estimate": 36.9733, "n": 430, "n_eff": 360.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1975 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 38.0651, "conf_low": 28.0716, "estimate": 32.8749, "n": 404, "n_eff": 336.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1976 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.9492, "conf_low": 28.4551, "estimate": 33.0295, "n": 449, "n_eff": 373.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1977 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.9677, "conf_low": 27.2293, "estimate": 32.3667, "n": 469, "n_eff": 288.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1978 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.5584, "conf_low": 27.2977, "estimate": 32.214, "n": 448, "n_eff": 315.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1980 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 42.2263, "conf_low": 31.635, "estimate": 36.7712, "n": 487, "n_eff": 314.9, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1982 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 38.3928, "conf_low": 24.7693, "estimate": 31.1754, "n": 258, "n_eff": 174.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1983 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.2627, "conf_low": 30.8354, "estimate": 35.8824, "n": 520, "n_eff": 321.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1984 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 42.3076, "conf_low": 32.7888, "estimate": 37.4267, "n": 597, "n_eff": 393.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1985 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.871, "conf_low": 28.9663, "estimate": 33.2695, "n": 518, "n_eff": 426.9, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1986 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 39.4346, "conf_low": 30.1179, "estimate": 34.629, "n": 541, "n_eff": 397.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1987 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 37.2112, "conf_low": 28.5753, "estimate": 32.7474, "n": 551, "n_eff": 450.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1988 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 40.5685, "conf_low": 32.1439, "estimate": 36.2507, "n": 612, "n_eff": 496.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1989 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 35.3865, "conf_low": 26.9132, "estimate": 30.9905, "n": 572, "n_eff": 454.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1990 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 41.2664, "conf_low": 32.9349, "estimate": 37.0039, "n": 624, "n_eff": 512.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1991 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 38.4011, "conf_low": 30.0548, "estimate": 34.1049, "n": 622, "n_eff": 492.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1993 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 31.6986, "conf_low": 25.7006, "estimate": 28.6055, "n": 1101, "n_eff": 869.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1994 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 35.7962, "conf_low": 29.5788, "estimate": 32.6111, "n": 1040, "n_eff": 870.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1996 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 33.0785, "conf_low": 26.6178, "estimate": 29.7471, "n": 937, "n_eff": 766.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 1998 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 33.7823, "conf_low": 27.2393, "estimate": 30.4118, "n": 924, "n_eff": 756.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2000 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 34.2568, "conf_low": 24.8407, "estimate": 29.3282, "n": 465, "n_eff": 356.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2002 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 36.4241, "conf_low": 27.0849, "estimate": 31.5688, "n": 504, "n_eff": 377.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2004 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 31.5248, "conf_low": 26.0442, "estimate": 28.7065, "n": 1447, "n_eff": 1044, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 33.3342, "conf_low": 25.1609, "estimate": 29.0784, "n": 657, "n_eff": 471.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 31.4936, "conf_low": 23.251, "estimate": 27.1768, "n": 651, "n_eff": 444.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 30.9521, "conf_low": 21.8982, "estimate": 26.1732, "n": 585, "n_eff": 359.5, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 32.3907, "conf_low": 25.1147, "estimate": 28.6143, "n": 779, "n_eff": 589.9, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 32.6153, "conf_low": 25.6655, "estimate": 29.0175, "n": 911, "n_eff": 652.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 35.7556, "conf_low": 27.0756, "estimate": 31.2515, "n": 777, "n_eff": 435, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2018 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 27.6978, "conf_low": 21.8946, "estimate": 24.6817, "n": 1228, "n_eff": 845.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "GSS", "year": 2021 }, { "camp": "Moderate", 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"estimate": 24.7986, "n": 14662, "n_eff": 11342.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 24.4201, "conf_low": 20.7448, "estimate": 22.5294, "n": 3720, "n_eff": 1983.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2007 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 22.0383, "conf_low": 20.4599, "estimate": 21.2384, "n": 13561, "n_eff": 10314.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 22.4756, "conf_low": 20.0285, "estimate": 21.2263, "n": 5278, "n_eff": 4288.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2009 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 20.7793, "conf_low": 19.1253, "estimate": 19.9394, "n": 23078, "n_eff": 8964.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 24.0158, "conf_low": 21.3232, "estimate": 22.6412, "n": 7150, "n_eff": 3709.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2011 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 21.1573, "conf_low": 19.4847, "estimate": 20.3082, "n": 20074, "n_eff": 8887.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 23.7333, "conf_low": 20.5934, "estimate": 22.1235, "n": 5147, "n_eff": 2683.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2013 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 23.7355, "conf_low": 21.9701, "estimate": 22.8408, "n": 18534, "n_eff": 8686.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 25.5426, "conf_low": 22.3414, "estimate": 23.9053, "n": 4726, "n_eff": 2725.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2015 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 25.5708, "conf_low": 24.0041, "estimate": 24.7791, "n": 20298, "n_eff": 11664.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 23.5707, "conf_low": 20.5343, "estimate": 22.0149, "n": 5619, "n_eff": 2859.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2017 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 21.7558, "conf_low": 20.2289, "estimate": 20.9822, "n": 20977, "n_eff": 10925.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2018 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 21.4896, "conf_low": 19.0277, "estimate": 20.2307, "n": 6313, "n_eff": 4089.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2019 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 23.0918, "conf_low": 21.5542, "estimate": 22.3136, "n": 19768, "n_eff": 11264.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2020 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 23.2876, "conf_low": 21.0404, "estimate": 22.1436, "n": 7876, "n_eff": 5244, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2021 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 24.164, "conf_low": 22.4778, "estimate": 23.3103, "n": 19639, "n_eff": 9659.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2022 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 26.5942, "conf_low": 24.2115, "estimate": 25.3844, "n": 8550, "n_eff": 5123.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2023 }, { "camp": "Moderate", "conf_high": 25.4213, "conf_low": 23.5357, "estimate": 24.4662, "n": 20761, "n_eff": 7983.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2024 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 73.656, "conf_low": 72.0192, "estimate": 72.8454, "n": 14662, "n_eff": 11342.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2006 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 77.2851, "conf_low": 73.4987, "estimate": 75.4411, "n": 3720, "n_eff": 1983.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2007 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 76.7843, "conf_low": 75.1354, "estimate": 75.9696, "n": 13561, "n_eff": 10314.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2008 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 77.8425, "conf_low": 75.309, "estimate": 76.5996, "n": 5278, "n_eff": 4288.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2009 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 78.5708, "conf_low": 76.8483, "estimate": 77.7214, "n": 23078, "n_eff": 8964.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2010 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 76.8057, "conf_low": 74.0366, "estimate": 75.4475, "n": 7150, "n_eff": 3709.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2011 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 78.341, "conf_low": 76.6045, "estimate": 77.4846, "n": 20074, "n_eff": 8887.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2012 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 76.9862, "conf_low": 73.7283, "estimate": 75.3936, "n": 5147, "n_eff": 2683.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2013 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 75.8267, "conf_low": 74.004, "estimate": 74.9263, "n": 18534, "n_eff": 8686.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2014 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 75.3821, "conf_low": 72.0805, "estimate": 73.7648, "n": 4726, "n_eff": 2725.3, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2015 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 73.537, "conf_low": 71.921, "estimate": 72.7365, "n": 20298, "n_eff": 11664.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2016 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 77.6482, "conf_low": 74.524, "estimate": 76.1211, "n": 5619, "n_eff": 2859.1, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2017 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 76.8642, "conf_low": 75.2644, "estimate": 76.0735, "n": 20977, "n_eff": 10925.6, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2018 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 77.2669, "conf_low": 74.6492, "estimate": 75.9824, "n": 6313, "n_eff": 4089.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2019 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 75.1829, "conf_low": 73.5709, "estimate": 74.3852, "n": 19768, "n_eff": 11264.4, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2020 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 76.273, "conf_low": 73.9334, "estimate": 75.1216, "n": 7876, "n_eff": 5244, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2021 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 74.8662, "conf_low": 73.117, "estimate": 74.0011, "n": 19639, "n_eff": 9659.2, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2022 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 72.3918, "conf_low": 69.9119, "estimate": 71.1677, "n": 8550, "n_eff": 5123.8, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2023 }, { "camp": "Conservative", "conf_high": 74.1806, "conf_low": 72.2383, "estimate": 73.2207, "n": 20761, "n_eff": 7983.7, "party": "Republicans", "survey": "CES", "year": 2024 } ], "id": "camps", "notes": [ "Respondents who did not place themselves are left out of every share, and the share who placed themselves is reported in the text." ], "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024 (weight VCF0009z); GSS, 1974-2024 (weight_use); CES cumulative file, 2006-2024 (weight); all estimates weighted", "spec": { "colors": { "Conservative": "highlight", "Liberal": "accent", "Moderate": "muted" }, "facet": "party", "facetColumns": 2, "hi": "conf_high", "lo": "conf_low", "n": "n", "series": "camp", "x": "year", "xDomain": [ 1972, 2024 ], "xLabel": "Survey year", "y": "estimate", "yDomain": [ 0, 100 ], "yFormat": { "digits": 0, "suffix": "%" }, "yLabel": "Share of the party's identifiers (%)" }, "subtitle": "Share of each party's identifiers (leaners included) who place themselves as liberal, moderate or conservative, among identifiers who placed themselves, with 95% intervals; liberal and conservative include slightly liberal and slightly conservative on the seven-point scales of the ANES and GSS", "table": { "columns": [ { "key": "survey", "label": "Survey" }, { "key": "party", "label": "Party" }, { "key": "camp", "label": "Camp" }, { "key": "year", "label": "Year" }, { "format": { "digits": 1, "suffix": "%" }, "key": "estimate", "label": "Share" }, { "format": { "digits": 1, "suffix": "%" }, "key": "conf_low", "label": "Interval low" }, { "format": { "digits": 1, "suffix": "%" }, "key": "conf_high", "label": "Interval high" }, { "format": { "digits": 0, "thousands": true }, "key": "n", "label": "Respondents" }, { "format": { "digits": 0, "thousands": true }, "key": "n_eff", "label": "Effective n" } ] }, "title": "Larger shares of Democrats are liberal and of Republicans conservative than in the 1970s", "type": "line", "views": [ { "filter": { "survey": "ANES" }, "id": "anes", "label": "ANES" }, { "filter": { "survey": "GSS" }, "id": "gss", "label": "GSS" }, { "caption": "The CES starts in 2006, so it covers a shorter span than the ANES and the GSS. The liberal share of Democrats goes from {fact:ces_dem_lib_2006} in 2006 to {fact:ces_dem_lib_2024} in 2024, while the conservative share of Republicans goes from {fact:ces_rep_con_2006} to {fact:ces_rep_con_2024}, and those two intervals overlap. Liberal and conservative are the two points on each side of the middle in the CES scale.", "filter": { "survey": "CES" }, "id": "ces", "label": "CES", "title": "In the CES, the liberal share of Democrats rose between 2006 and 2024 and the conservative share of Republicans did not change detectably" } ], "width": "wide" }