{
  "alt": "Table with {fact:n_measures} rows, one for each version of the spread of county swings. In each row the value for 2020 to 2024 is lower than the value for the next lowest pair; the smallest difference is {fact:robust_gap_min} points.",
  "caption": "In every row the value for 2020 to 2024 is below the next lowest pair's. The smallest margin is {fact:robust_gap_min} points.",
  "data": [
    {
      "counting": "Weighted by votes",
      "latest": 4.46754,
      "margin": 0.505181,
      "measure": "Standard deviation",
      "next_pair": "2008–12",
      "next_value": 4.97272
    },
    {
      "counting": "Weighted by votes",
      "latest": 4.46713,
      "margin": 0.503299,
      "measure": "Standard deviation without small counties",
      "next_pair": "2008–12",
      "next_value": 4.97043
    },
    {
      "counting": "Weighted by votes",
      "latest": 4.19159,
      "margin": 0.810888,
      "measure": "Standard deviation on the fixed panel of counties",
      "next_pair": "2008–12",
      "next_value": 5.00248
    },
    {
      "counting": "Weighted by votes",
      "latest": 3.97748,
      "margin": 0.212866,
      "measure": "Median absolute deviation, scaled",
      "next_pair": "2008–12",
      "next_value": 4.19034
    },
    {
      "counting": "Weighted by votes",
      "latest": 3.96261,
      "margin": 0.31233,
      "measure": "Interquartile range, scaled",
      "next_pair": "2008–12",
      "next_value": 4.27494
    },
    {
      "counting": "Each county counted once",
      "latest": 3.36354,
      "margin": 1.82537,
      "measure": "Standard deviation",
      "next_pair": "2016–20",
      "next_value": 5.18891
    },
    {
      "counting": "Each county counted once",
      "latest": 3.30668,
      "margin": 1.81743,
      "measure": "Standard deviation without small counties",
      "next_pair": "2016–20",
      "next_value": 5.12411
    },
    {
      "counting": "Each county counted once",
      "latest": 2.83921,
      "margin": 1.51456,
      "measure": "Standard deviation on the fixed panel of counties",
      "next_pair": "2016–20",
      "next_value": 4.35377
    },
    {
      "counting": "Each county counted once",
      "latest": 2.73514,
      "margin": 1.46746,
      "measure": "Median absolute deviation, scaled",
      "next_pair": "2016–20",
      "next_value": 4.20259
    },
    {
      "counting": "Each county counted once",
      "latest": 2.75692,
      "margin": 1.46127,
      "measure": "Interquartile range, scaled",
      "next_pair": "2016–20",
      "next_value": 4.21819
    }
  ],
  "id": "robustness_versions",
  "notes": [
    "Full counts of votes: there is no sampling, so the estimates have no confidence interval.",
    "Dropping small counties removes counties with fewer than {fact:small_floor} two-party votes in either election of a pair. The fixed panel keeps the {fact:n_panel} counties with a positive two-party vote in all {fact:n_elections} elections. The scaled median absolute deviation and the scaled interquartile range are rescaled to equal the standard deviation for a normal distribution."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; county swings weighted by two-party votes in the later election unless stated",
  "spec": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "measure",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "counting",
        "label": "Counted"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "latest",
        "label": "2020 to 2024 (points)"
      },
      {
        "key": "next_pair",
        "label": "Next lowest pair"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "next_value",
        "label": "Its value (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "margin",
        "label": "Margin (points)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Spread of county swings for 2020 to 2024 and for the next lowest pair under five measures, each weighted by votes and with each county counted once, percentage points",
  "title": "2020 to 2024 is the lowest pair under all {fact:n_measures} versions of the spread",
  "type": "table",
  "width": "wide"
}