{
  "alt": "Line chart of the Republican minus Democratic gap by survey year, with confidence bands, for all ANES respondents from 1992 to 2024, in-person ANES respondents from 2008, and the GSS from 1994 to 2024. The lines are lower before 2014 than from 2016 on. The all-respondent ANES gap is {fact:a_gap_1992} points in 1992, {fact:a_gap_2012} in 2012, {fact:a_gap_2016} in 2016 and {fact:a_gap_2024} in 2024, and the in-person ANES gap is {fact:a_gap_2024_ftf} in 2024. The GSS gap is {fact:g_gap_2004} in 2004, {fact:g_gap_2016} in 2016 and {fact:g_gap_2024} in 2024. Open GSS points before 2004 are earlier forms of the question. A shaded band marks the ANES mode change from 2016 to 2020.",
  "caption": "Both gaps are smaller before 2014 than from 2016 on, when they are {fact:a_gap_2016} points in the ANES and {fact:g_gap_2016} in the GSS in 2016. In 2024 the gap is {fact:g_gap_2024} in the GSS, {fact:a_gap_2024} among all ANES respondents and {fact:a_gap_2024_ftf} among in-person ANES respondents, who are the like-for-like series from 2008. A value above zero means Republicans were more likely than Democrats to give the restrictive answer. Each line joins survey years, each band is a 95% confidence interval, open points are earlier forms of the GSS question, and the shaded band marks the change in ANES survey mode between 2016 and 2020.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 7.85659,
      "conf_low": -1.24538,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 3.3056,
      "n": 1898,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.08714,
      "conf_low": -3.34928,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 1.86893,
      "n": 1545,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.761,
      "conf_low": -0.960147,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 4.90043,
      "n": 1367,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.54761,
      "conf_low": -5.52435,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 1.01163,
      "n": 1094,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.6053,
      "conf_low": 2.39448,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 7.99987,
      "n": 1515,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.2836,
      "conf_low": -2.79647,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 4.24354,
      "n": 933,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.4686,
      "conf_low": -0.31002,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 5.57929,
      "n": 1799,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.9076,
      "conf_low": 11.2126,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 15.0601,
      "n": 4664,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.2745,
      "conf_low": 30.3747,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 34.3246,
      "n": 3140,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.3977,
      "conf_low": 27.7357,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 30.5667,
      "n": 6486,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.3704,
      "conf_low": 24.3099,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 28.3401,
      "n": 4560,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.4686,
      "conf_low": -0.31002,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 5.57929,
      "n": 1799,
      "survey": "ANES in person",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.5207,
      "conf_low": 3.05408,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 9.7874,
      "n": 1632,
      "survey": "ANES in person",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.5527,
      "conf_low": 23.8155,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 31.1841,
      "n": 930,
      "survey": "ANES in person",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": null,
      "n": null,
      "survey": "ANES in person",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.1304,
      "conf_low": 11.4568,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 20.2936,
      "n": 849,
      "survey": "ANES in person",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.8178,
      "conf_low": 1.8168,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 10.3173,
      "n": 735,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.1691,
      "conf_low": 10.404,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 16.2865,
      "n": 1550,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2006
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.9081,
      "conf_low": 0.403903,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 7.65599,
      "n": 1074,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.8448,
      "conf_low": 11.3581,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 18.6015,
      "n": 1119,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2010
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.748,
      "conf_low": 4.77184,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 12.7599,
      "n": 994,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.3629,
      "conf_low": 15.4577,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 21.9103,
      "n": 1261,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2014
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 40.2239,
      "conf_low": 28.5257,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 34.3748,
      "n": 1479,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.2479,
      "conf_low": 25.3688,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 32.3083,
      "n": 1175,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.4472,
      "conf_low": 34.8567,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 39.652,
      "n": 2038,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 47.2097,
      "conf_low": 35.93,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 41.5698,
      "n": 2511,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52.4866,
      "conf_low": 42.4686,
      "early": false,
      "estimate": 47.4776,
      "n": 2301,
      "survey": "GSS",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.6138,
      "conf_low": 0.334556,
      "early": true,
      "estimate": 6.47419,
      "n": 1174,
      "survey": "GSS earlier forms",
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.3555,
      "conf_low": -0.273918,
      "early": true,
      "estimate": 6.5408,
      "n": 958,
      "survey": "GSS earlier forms",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.0897,
      "conf_low": -3.46727,
      "early": true,
      "estimate": 3.31121,
      "n": 1027,
      "survey": "GSS earlier forms",
      "year": 2000
    }
  ],
  "id": "gap_by_year",
  "notes": [
    "The in-person ANES line uses the mode weights of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024 and has no 2020 point because the 2020 study had no in-person interviews; all-respondent ANES estimates from 2012 combine in-person and web samples.",
    "Open GSS points before 2004 use two earlier GSS variables with the same five answers: letin in 1994 and 2000 and letin1 in 1996. The GSS asked both letin1 and letin1a in 2004, 2014 and 2024; the text compares the two forms in those years.",
    "GSS interviews were mostly in person through 2018, mostly on the web in 2021, and in both modes in 2022 and 2024. A party cell needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100; a gap needs both parties to clear that floor."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1992-2024, and General Social Survey, 1994-2024; weighted (weight, VCF0009z; weight_use)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No gap",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      },
      {
        "label": "ANES mode change",
        "type": "band",
        "x1": 2016,
        "x2": 2020
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "ANES": "cat1",
      "ANES in person": "cat3",
      "GSS": "cat2",
      "GSS earlier forms": "cat2"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "ANES in person",
      "GSS",
      "GSS earlier forms"
    ],
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "hollow": "early",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "survey",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1991,
      2025
    ],
    "xLabel": "Survey year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -15,
      60
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Republican minus Democratic gap (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Republican minus Democratic share wanting the number of immigrants decreased (ANES) or reduced (GSS), party identifiers including leaners, 1992 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "survey",
        "label": "Survey"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Year"
      },
      {
        "key": "early",
        "label": "Earlier GSS form"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Republicans and Democrats grew apart on wanting fewer immigrants in both surveys",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}