{
  "alt": "Table with five rows. The share of the {fact:decline_cf}-point fall from the 1970s to the 2020s that the mix of cohorts accounts for is {fact:share_a} with every cohort at its 1970s rate, {fact:share_b} with every cohort at its entry rate, {fact:share_bs} and {fact:share_bl} under a stricter and a looser rule for a well-observed cell, and {fact:share_c} when the cohorts born after 1958 keep their own 2020s rates.",
  "caption": "The share is {fact:share_a} with every cohort at its 1970s rate, {fact:share_b} at entry rates ({fact:share_bs} with a stricter rule for a well-observed cell and {fact:share_bl} with a looser one) and {fact:share_c} when the cohorts born after 1958 keep their own 2020s rates, so the data do not choose among the assumptions. The last row is a limiting case: an extreme assumption that counts the fall inside those cohorts as a fixed cohort trait.",
  "data": [
    {
      "change": 0.0526754,
      "change_high": 0.289707,
      "change_low": -0.182083,
      "share": -0.410373,
      "share_high": 1.44255,
      "share_low": -2.23707,
      "version": "Every cohort at its 1970s rate"
    },
    {
      "change": -3.23872,
      "change_high": -1.33321,
      "change_low": -4.98889,
      "share": 25.2316,
      "share_high": 37.9587,
      "share_low": 10.7799,
      "version": "Every cohort at its entry rate"
    },
    {
      "change": -2.75147,
      "change_high": -1.08454,
      "change_low": -4.39919,
      "share": 21.4356,
      "share_high": 32.6424,
      "share_low": 9.00494,
      "version": "Entry rates, stricter rule for a well-observed cell"
    },
    {
      "change": -3.3437,
      "change_high": -1.40329,
      "change_low": -5.14289,
      "share": 26.0495,
      "share_high": 38.8738,
      "share_low": 11.6063,
      "version": "Entry rates, looser rule for a well-observed cell"
    },
    {
      "change": -9.50107,
      "change_high": -8.42801,
      "change_low": -10.6542,
      "share": 74.019,
      "share_high": 77.7598,
      "share_low": 70.5742,
      "version": "Cohorts born after 1958 at their own 2020s rates (limiting case)"
    }
  ],
  "id": "mix_versions",
  "notes": [
    "The change from the mix is the frozen-rate share in the 2020s minus the frozen-rate share in the 1970s, in percentage points; the share of the fall is that change divided by the observed change. Differences are computed from unrounded values, so a printed difference can differ in the last digit from the difference of the printed shares."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included; intervals from a bootstrap over respondents within pooled decades",
  "spec": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "version",
        "label": "Assumption about cohort rates"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change",
        "label": "Change from the mix (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change_low",
        "label": "95% interval low (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change_high",
        "label": "95% interval high (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share",
        "label": "Share of the fall (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_low",
        "label": "95% interval low (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_high",
        "label": "95% interval high (%)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the cross-pressured share of placed partisans from the 1970s to the 2020s that the mix of birth cohorts produces under five assumptions about cohort rates, with 95% bootstrap intervals",
  "title": "The share of the fall due to the mix of cohorts ranges from {fact:share_a} to {fact:share_c} depending on the rates given to later cohorts",
  "type": "table",
  "width": "wide"
}