{
  "alt": "Line chart from 2000 to 2024 of four standard deviations of the county margin in two views. Vote-weighted, the spread of the margin rises from {fact:sdt_2000_w} to {fact:sdt_2016_w} points in 2016 and is {fact:sdt_2024_w} in 2024, the fitted part rises from {fact:sde_2000_w} to {fact:sde_2024_w}, the left-over part falls from {fact:sdr_2000_w} to {fact:sdr_2024_w}, and the part left over after state baselines falls from {fact:sdrf_2000_w} to {fact:sdrf_2024_w}.",
  "caption": "The rise in R-squared combines a wider fitted part ({fact:chs_explained_2000_2024_w} points from 2000 to 2024) and a narrower left-over part ({fact:chs_resid_2000_2024_w}): the spread of the margin rose from {fact:sdt_2000_w} to {fact:sdt_2016_w} points in 2016 and was {fact:sdt_2024_w} in 2024. Each line is a weighted standard deviation across counties, in percentage points of margin. The left-over part is the standard deviation of the regression residual, with and without a baseline for each state. Bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states, drawn for the fitted and left-over series.",
  "data": [
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 28.6,
      "conf_low": 24,
      "estimate": 26.52,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 29.07,
      "conf_low": 25.16,
      "estimate": 27.35,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 30.69,
      "conf_low": 26.51,
      "estimate": 28.77,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 33.14,
      "conf_low": 28.67,
      "estimate": 31.07,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 37.9,
      "conf_low": 33.34,
      "estimate": 35.9,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 36.07,
      "conf_low": 31.82,
      "estimate": 34.09,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 34.96,
      "conf_low": 30.62,
      "estimate": 32.84,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 20.85,
      "band_low": 13.38,
      "conf_high": 20.85,
      "conf_low": 13.38,
      "estimate": 16.94,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 21.39,
      "band_low": 14.98,
      "conf_high": 21.39,
      "conf_low": 14.98,
      "estimate": 18.04,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 23.11,
      "band_low": 17.04,
      "conf_high": 23.11,
      "conf_low": 17.04,
      "estimate": 19.96,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 25.7,
      "band_low": 19.48,
      "conf_high": 25.7,
      "conf_low": 19.48,
      "estimate": 22.46,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 33.29,
      "band_low": 27.66,
      "conf_high": 33.29,
      "conf_low": 27.66,
      "estimate": 30.49,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 31.8,
      "band_low": 26.41,
      "conf_high": 31.8,
      "conf_low": 26.41,
      "estimate": 28.92,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 30.44,
      "band_low": 24.7,
      "conf_high": 30.44,
      "conf_low": 24.7,
      "estimate": 27.2,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 21.87,
      "band_low": 17.98,
      "conf_high": 21.87,
      "conf_low": 17.98,
      "estimate": 20.41,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 21.66,
      "band_low": 18.37,
      "conf_high": 21.66,
      "conf_low": 18.37,
      "estimate": 20.56,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 22.2,
      "band_low": 18.1,
      "conf_high": 22.2,
      "conf_low": 18.1,
      "estimate": 20.71,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 23.02,
      "band_low": 18.79,
      "conf_high": 23.02,
      "conf_low": 18.79,
      "estimate": 21.47,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 20.27,
      "band_low": 16.49,
      "conf_high": 20.27,
      "conf_low": 16.49,
      "estimate": 18.94,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 19.27,
      "band_low": 15.52,
      "conf_high": 19.27,
      "conf_low": 15.52,
      "estimate": 18.04,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 19.68,
      "band_low": 15.53,
      "conf_high": 19.68,
      "conf_low": 15.53,
      "estimate": 18.41,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.68,
      "band_low": 11.73,
      "conf_high": 14.68,
      "conf_low": 11.73,
      "estimate": 13.49,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.94,
      "band_low": 11.87,
      "conf_high": 14.94,
      "conf_low": 11.87,
      "estimate": 13.77,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 13.89,
      "band_low": 11.26,
      "conf_high": 13.89,
      "conf_low": 11.26,
      "estimate": 12.9,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.33,
      "band_low": 11.54,
      "conf_high": 14.33,
      "conf_low": 11.54,
      "estimate": 13.2,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 13.03,
      "band_low": 10.41,
      "conf_high": 13.03,
      "conf_low": 10.41,
      "estimate": 11.96,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 12.55,
      "band_low": 10.19,
      "conf_high": 12.55,
      "conf_low": 10.19,
      "estimate": 11.66,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 12.93,
      "band_low": 10.37,
      "conf_high": 12.93,
      "conf_low": 10.37,
      "estimate": 12.01,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 26.31,
      "conf_low": 22.28,
      "estimate": 24.51,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 27.05,
      "conf_low": 23.19,
      "estimate": 25.35,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 30.12,
      "conf_low": 25.66,
      "estimate": 28.14,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 32.31,
      "conf_low": 27.43,
      "estimate": 30.07,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 34.47,
      "conf_low": 29.82,
      "estimate": 32.3,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 34.78,
      "conf_low": 30.33,
      "estimate": 32.65,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 33.71,
      "conf_low": 29.47,
      "estimate": 31.66,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Margin",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.33,
      "band_low": 8.17,
      "conf_high": 14.33,
      "conf_low": 8.17,
      "estimate": 10.85,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.88,
      "band_low": 8.59,
      "conf_high": 14.88,
      "conf_low": 8.59,
      "estimate": 11.27,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 17.69,
      "band_low": 11.66,
      "conf_high": 17.69,
      "conf_low": 11.66,
      "estimate": 14.2,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 21.04,
      "band_low": 14.55,
      "conf_high": 21.04,
      "conf_low": 14.55,
      "estimate": 17.3,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 27.91,
      "band_low": 21.83,
      "conf_high": 27.91,
      "conf_low": 21.83,
      "estimate": 24.55,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 28.82,
      "band_low": 22.42,
      "conf_high": 28.82,
      "conf_low": 22.42,
      "estimate": 25.23,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 27.76,
      "band_low": 21.32,
      "conf_high": 27.76,
      "conf_low": 21.32,
      "estimate": 24.25,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Fitted by the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 23.89,
      "band_low": 19.22,
      "conf_high": 23.89,
      "conf_low": 19.22,
      "estimate": 21.97,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 24.53,
      "band_low": 19.79,
      "conf_high": 24.53,
      "conf_low": 19.79,
      "estimate": 22.7,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 26.5,
      "band_low": 20.92,
      "conf_high": 26.5,
      "conf_low": 20.92,
      "estimate": 24.29,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 27.06,
      "band_low": 20.84,
      "conf_high": 27.06,
      "conf_low": 20.84,
      "estimate": 24.59,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 23.17,
      "band_low": 17.59,
      "conf_high": 23.17,
      "conf_low": 17.59,
      "estimate": 20.98,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 22.99,
      "band_low": 17.14,
      "conf_high": 22.99,
      "conf_low": 17.14,
      "estimate": 20.73,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 22.63,
      "band_low": 16.88,
      "conf_high": 22.63,
      "conf_low": 16.88,
      "estimate": 20.35,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 16.44,
      "band_low": 14.03,
      "conf_high": 16.44,
      "conf_low": 14.03,
      "estimate": 15.37,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 16.43,
      "band_low": 14.18,
      "conf_high": 16.43,
      "conf_low": 14.18,
      "estimate": 15.41,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 16.11,
      "band_low": 13.98,
      "conf_high": 16.11,
      "conf_low": 13.98,
      "estimate": 15.17,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 16.29,
      "band_low": 14.15,
      "conf_high": 16.29,
      "conf_low": 14.15,
      "estimate": 15.34,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.68,
      "band_low": 12.51,
      "conf_high": 14.68,
      "conf_low": 12.51,
      "estimate": 13.73,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.28,
      "band_low": 12.09,
      "conf_high": 14.28,
      "conf_low": 12.09,
      "estimate": 13.32,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 14.44,
      "band_low": 12.12,
      "conf_high": 14.44,
      "conf_low": 12.12,
      "estimate": 13.45,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Left over after the five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "spread_by_year",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Fitted by the five axes": "cat1",
      "Left over after the five axes": "highlight",
      "Left over after the five axes and state baselines": "accent",
      "Margin": "total"
    },
    "hi": "band_high",
    "lo": "band_low",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1999,
      2025
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Presidential election",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      0,
      40
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Standard deviation across counties (percentage points of margin)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Standard deviation across counties of the two-party margin, the margin fitted by the five axes and the margin left over, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Part of the margin"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Standard deviation (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_units",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Vote-weighted, the part of the county margin that the five axes leave over narrowed from {fact:sdr_2000_w} to {fact:sdr_2024_w} points while the part they fit widened from {fact:sde_2000_w} to {fact:sde_2024_w}",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes",
      "label": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once, the spread of the margin rose from {fact:sdt_2000_u} to {fact:sdt_2024_u} points; the fitted part widened from {fact:sde_2000_u} to {fact:sde_2024_u} and the left-over part narrowed from {fact:sdr_2000_u} to {fact:sdr_2024_u}. Each line is a standard deviation across counties; bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states, drawn for the fitted and left-over series.",
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal",
      "label": "County-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, the part of the margin that the five axes leave over narrowed from {fact:sdr_2000_u} to {fact:sdr_2024_u} points while the part they fit widened from {fact:sde_2000_u} to {fact:sde_2024_u}"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}