{
  "alt": "County map of the United States with a slider for 2000 and 2024, colored by each county's margin minus the margin fitted by five county characteristics. In 2024 the vote-weighted mean gap is {fact:res_south_2024} points in the Census South and {fact:res_rest_2024} points in the rest of the country, and the mean gap is {fact:res_vt_2024} points in Vermont and {fact:res_tx_2024} points in Texas. The data table lists the sixteen counties with {fact:res_cut} or more votes at the largest gaps in each year.",
  "caption": "Blue counties voted more Democratic than the five axes fit and red counties more Republican, and the gaps run by region, with a mean of {fact:res_south_2024} points in the Census South in 2024 and {fact:res_rest_2024} elsewhere. The fit is a vote-weighted regression of the county margin on college share, median household income, the white share, median age and rural share, estimated separately for each election. Among counties with {fact:res_cut} or more two-party votes, the largest gaps in 2024 are above the fit in Clayton (Georgia), Sonoma (California) and Prince George's (Maryland) counties and below it in Forsyth (Georgia), Williamson (Tennessee) and Shelby (Alabama) counties.",
  "data": [
    {
      "county": "Forsyth, GA",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "13117",
      "fitted": 19.4,
      "gap": -52.9,
      "margin": -33.5,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 136790
    },
    {
      "county": "Williamson, TN",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "47187",
      "fitted": 19.2,
      "gap": -52.1,
      "margin": -32.9,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 142257
    },
    {
      "county": "Shelby, AL",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "01117",
      "fitted": 6.1,
      "gap": -47.4,
      "margin": -41.3,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 112753
    },
    {
      "county": "Comal, TX",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "48091",
      "fitted": 0.9,
      "gap": -46.8,
      "margin": -46,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 102436
    },
    {
      "county": "Miami-Dade, FL",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "12086",
      "fitted": 35.3,
      "gap": -46.8,
      "margin": -11.5,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 1085945
    },
    {
      "county": "Lubbock, TX",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "48303",
      "fitted": 6.2,
      "gap": -46.2,
      "margin": -39.9,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 123695
    },
    {
      "county": "Montgomery, TX",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "48339",
      "fitted": -0.8,
      "gap": -45.2,
      "margin": -45.9,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 304241
    },
    {
      "county": "Collin, TX",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "48085",
      "fitted": 33.5,
      "gap": -45,
      "margin": -11.4,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 501649
    },
    {
      "county": "Clayton, GA",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "13063",
      "fitted": 17.4,
      "gap": 52.2,
      "margin": 69.6,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 111080
    },
    {
      "county": "Sonoma, CA",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "06097",
      "fitted": -0.4,
      "gap": 48.2,
      "margin": 47.8,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 243026
    },
    {
      "county": "Prince George's, MD",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "24033",
      "fitted": 29,
      "gap": 48.1,
      "margin": 77,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 392046
    },
    {
      "county": "Santa Cruz, CA",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "06087",
      "fitted": 9.8,
      "gap": 46.8,
      "margin": 56.6,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 128976
    },
    {
      "county": "Baltimore City, MD",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "24510",
      "fitted": 32.2,
      "gap": 42.7,
      "margin": 74.9,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 223093
    },
    {
      "county": "Multnomah, OR",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "41051",
      "fitted": 21.8,
      "gap": 42.5,
      "margin": 64.3,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 396686
    },
    {
      "county": "Marin, CA",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "06041",
      "fitted": 25.6,
      "gap": 40.1,
      "margin": 65.7,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 140206
    },
    {
      "county": "St. Louis, MN",
      "election": "2024",
      "fips": "27137",
      "fitted": -22.8,
      "gap": 36.8,
      "margin": 14,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 116400
    },
    {
      "county": "Collin, TX",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "48085",
      "fitted": -0.9,
      "gap": -49,
      "margin": -49.9,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 171063
    },
    {
      "county": "Montgomery, TX",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "48339",
      "fitted": -14.7,
      "gap": -40.5,
      "margin": -55.2,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 103886
    },
    {
      "county": "Utah, UT",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "49049",
      "fitted": -31.8,
      "gap": -39.5,
      "margin": -71.3,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 114700
    },
    {
      "county": "Greenville, SC",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "45045",
      "fitted": 1.2,
      "gap": -37,
      "margin": -35.8,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 136524
    },
    {
      "county": "Sarasota, FL",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "12115",
      "fitted": 30.4,
      "gap": -36.9,
      "margin": -6.6,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 155986
    },
    {
      "county": "Fort Bend, TX",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "48157",
      "fitted": 15.4,
      "gap": -36.9,
      "margin": -21.5,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 121136
    },
    {
      "county": "Lee, FL",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "12071",
      "fitted": 17.7,
      "gap": -35.9,
      "margin": -18.1,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 179722
    },
    {
      "county": "Denton, TX",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "48121",
      "fitted": -7.9,
      "gap": -35.7,
      "margin": -43.6,
      "position": "Largest gaps below the fit",
      "votes": 142315
    },
    {
      "county": "Bristol, MA",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "25005",
      "fitted": -8.8,
      "gap": 45.7,
      "margin": 36.9,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 199173
    },
    {
      "county": "Bronx, NY",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "36005",
      "fitted": 33.1,
      "gap": 42.9,
      "margin": 76,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 302046
    },
    {
      "county": "Philadelphia, PA",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "42101",
      "fitted": 22.7,
      "gap": 40.6,
      "margin": 63.3,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 550141
    },
    {
      "county": "Kings, NY",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "36047",
      "fitted": 27.5,
      "gap": 40,
      "margin": 67.5,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 594122
    },
    {
      "county": "Suffolk, MA",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "25025",
      "fitted": 17.1,
      "gap": 38.3,
      "margin": 55.4,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 199329
    },
    {
      "county": "Baltimore City, MD",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "24510",
      "fitted": 33.3,
      "gap": 37.5,
      "margin": 70.8,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 185915
    },
    {
      "county": "District Of Columbia , DC",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "11001",
      "fitted": 44.2,
      "gap": 36.8,
      "margin": 81,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 189996
    },
    {
      "county": "Providence, RI",
      "election": "2000",
      "fips": "44007",
      "fitted": 3.1,
      "gap": 36.6,
      "margin": 39.8,
      "position": "Largest gaps above the fit",
      "votes": 203847
    }
  ],
  "id": "residual_map",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so the map draws no intervals. The map is drawn on 2020 county boundaries and a county with no fit draws as no data. Alaska is not in the sample, because it reports returns by election district; the Connecticut counties draw in 2000 and not in 2024, because they lack 2024 census measures; Kansas City is added to Jackson County, Missouri in 2024.",
    "The data table lists the eight counties at each end of the gap for each year, among counties above the vote cut named in the caption, not the whole map."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000 and 2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes; fitted values from a regression weighted by two-party votes on county characteristics from the census and American Community Survey",
  "spec": {
    "fips": "fips",
    "frame": "election",
    "frames": [
      "2000",
      "2024"
    ],
    "legendLabel": "County margin minus the margin fitted by the five axes (points)",
    "payload": "residual_map.json",
    "scale": {
      "domain": [
        -40,
        40
      ],
      "palette": "party",
      "type": "diverging"
    },
    "tooltipKeys": [
      "margin",
      "fitted"
    ],
    "tooltipLabels": {
      "fitted": "Fitted margin (points)",
      "margin": "Margin (points)"
    },
    "value": "gap",
    "valueFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    }
  },
  "subtitle": "County two-party margin minus the margin fitted by a regression on the five axes weighted by two-party votes, 2000 and 2024, in percentage points of margin",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "election",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "position",
        "label": "Position"
      },
      {
        "key": "county",
        "label": "County"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "gap",
        "label": "Margin minus fit (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "margin",
        "label": "Margin (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "fitted",
        "label": "Fitted margin (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "votes",
        "label": "Two-party votes"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In 2024 the mean gap between a county's margin and the five-axis fit is {fact:res_south_2024} points in the Census South and {fact:res_rest_2024} points in the rest of the country, vote-weighted",
  "type": "county-map",
  "width": "full"
}