{
  "alt": "Line chart of R-squared from 2000 to 2024 for four regressions of the county margin, in six views. Vote-weighted, the five-axis R-squared rises from {fact:r2_2000_w} in 2000 to {fact:r2_2016_w} in 2016 and is {fact:r2_2024_w} in 2024; with state baselines it rises from {fact:r2fe_2000_w} to {fact:r2fe_2024_w}; state baselines alone move from {fact:r2st_2000_w} to {fact:r2st_2024_w}; and the nine-measure regression rises from {fact:r2fu_2000_w} to {fact:r2fu_2024_w}.",
  "caption": "The five-axis share rises from {fact:r2_2012_w} in 2012 to {fact:r2_2016_w} in 2016 and is {fact:r2_2020_w} in 2020 and {fact:r2_2024_w} in 2024, while state baselines alone stay near {fact:r2st_2000_w} in 2000 and {fact:r2st_2024_w} in 2024. Each line is the R-squared of a weighted regression of the county margin: on the five axes, on the five axes with a baseline for each state, on state baselines alone, and on nine measures that add the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share to the five axes. Bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states, drawn for the first three series.",
  "data": [
    {
      "band_high": 56,
      "band_low": 29.6,
      "conf_high": 56,
      "conf_low": 29.6,
      "estimate": 40.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 56.7,
      "band_low": 34.6,
      "conf_high": 56.7,
      "conf_low": 34.6,
      "estimate": 43.5,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 59.8,
      "band_low": 39.6,
      "conf_high": 59.8,
      "conf_low": 39.6,
      "estimate": 48.2,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 63.2,
      "band_low": 44.3,
      "conf_high": 63.2,
      "conf_low": 44.3,
      "estimate": 52.3,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 79.3,
      "band_low": 67,
      "conf_high": 79.3,
      "conf_low": 67,
      "estimate": 72.2,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 79.5,
      "band_low": 67.1,
      "conf_high": 79.5,
      "conf_low": 67.1,
      "estimate": 72,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 78.1,
      "band_low": 63.1,
      "conf_high": 78.1,
      "conf_low": 63.1,
      "estimate": 68.6,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 82,
      "band_low": 64.8,
      "conf_high": 82,
      "conf_low": 64.8,
      "estimate": 74.1,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 81.9,
      "band_low": 67.9,
      "conf_high": 81.9,
      "conf_low": 67.9,
      "estimate": 74.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 85.4,
      "band_low": 74.6,
      "conf_high": 85.4,
      "conf_low": 74.6,
      "estimate": 79.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 86.8,
      "band_low": 77.1,
      "conf_high": 86.8,
      "conf_low": 77.1,
      "estimate": 81.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 91.7,
      "band_low": 86.6,
      "conf_high": 91.7,
      "conf_low": 86.6,
      "estimate": 88.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 91.4,
      "band_low": 85.6,
      "conf_high": 91.4,
      "conf_low": 85.6,
      "estimate": 88.3,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 90.4,
      "band_low": 83.6,
      "conf_high": 90.4,
      "conf_low": 83.6,
      "estimate": 86.6,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.7,
      "band_low": 24.3,
      "conf_high": 42.7,
      "conf_low": 24.3,
      "estimate": 34.2,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.7,
      "band_low": 21.1,
      "conf_high": 37.7,
      "conf_low": 21.1,
      "estimate": 29.5,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 38.2,
      "band_low": 24.1,
      "conf_high": 38.2,
      "conf_low": 24.1,
      "estimate": 31.6,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 38.6,
      "band_low": 23.2,
      "conf_high": 38.6,
      "conf_low": 23.2,
      "estimate": 31.4,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.2,
      "band_low": 18.5,
      "conf_high": 37.2,
      "conf_low": 18.5,
      "estimate": 28.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 36.7,
      "band_low": 19.2,
      "conf_high": 36.7,
      "conf_low": 19.2,
      "estimate": 28.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 34.4,
      "band_low": 19,
      "conf_high": 34.4,
      "conf_low": 19,
      "estimate": 27.4,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 62.8,
      "conf_low": 38.6,
      "estimate": 49.2,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 61.5,
      "conf_low": 41.8,
      "estimate": 50.1,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 62.6,
      "conf_low": 44.6,
      "estimate": 52.1,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 66.5,
      "conf_low": 49.3,
      "estimate": 56.4,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 80.8,
      "conf_low": 69.1,
      "estimate": 73.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 80.5,
      "conf_low": 69.8,
      "estimate": 73.4,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 79.2,
      "conf_low": 67.2,
      "estimate": 71.1,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 33.3,
      "band_low": 11.4,
      "conf_high": 33.3,
      "conf_low": 11.4,
      "estimate": 19.6,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 34.3,
      "band_low": 11.7,
      "conf_high": 34.3,
      "conf_low": 11.7,
      "estimate": 19.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 39.9,
      "band_low": 17.4,
      "conf_high": 39.9,
      "conf_low": 17.4,
      "estimate": 25.5,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 48.8,
      "band_low": 23.9,
      "conf_high": 48.8,
      "conf_low": 23.9,
      "estimate": 33.1,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 70.2,
      "band_low": 49.1,
      "conf_high": 70.2,
      "conf_low": 49.1,
      "estimate": 57.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 71.9,
      "band_low": 50.6,
      "conf_high": 71.9,
      "conf_low": 50.6,
      "estimate": 59.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 71.4,
      "band_low": 49.4,
      "conf_high": 71.4,
      "conf_low": 49.4,
      "estimate": 58.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 66.8,
      "band_low": 53.9,
      "conf_high": 66.8,
      "conf_low": 53.9,
      "estimate": 60.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 68.4,
      "band_low": 56.6,
      "conf_high": 68.4,
      "conf_low": 56.6,
      "estimate": 63,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 75.3,
      "band_low": 65.4,
      "conf_high": 75.3,
      "conf_low": 65.4,
      "estimate": 70.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 78.1,
      "band_low": 68.9,
      "conf_high": 78.1,
      "conf_low": 68.9,
      "estimate": 74,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 84.8,
      "band_low": 78.9,
      "conf_high": 84.8,
      "conf_low": 78.9,
      "estimate": 81.9,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 86,
      "band_low": 80.8,
      "conf_high": 86,
      "conf_low": 80.8,
      "estimate": 83.4,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 84.9,
      "band_low": 79.2,
      "conf_high": 84.9,
      "conf_low": 79.2,
      "estimate": 82,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.6,
      "band_low": 23.4,
      "conf_high": 42.6,
      "conf_low": 23.4,
      "estimate": 33.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.5,
      "band_low": 22.8,
      "conf_high": 41.5,
      "conf_low": 22.8,
      "estimate": 33.1,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.3,
      "band_low": 26.2,
      "conf_high": 43.3,
      "conf_low": 26.2,
      "estimate": 35.5,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.6,
      "band_low": 26.9,
      "conf_high": 43.6,
      "conf_low": 26.9,
      "estimate": 35.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.5,
      "band_low": 24.3,
      "conf_high": 41.5,
      "conf_low": 24.3,
      "estimate": 33,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.4,
      "band_low": 26.7,
      "conf_high": 42.4,
      "conf_low": 26.7,
      "estimate": 34.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.6,
      "band_low": 26.7,
      "conf_high": 41.6,
      "conf_low": 26.7,
      "estimate": 34.6,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 38.2,
      "conf_low": 19.6,
      "estimate": 26.6,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 39,
      "conf_low": 21,
      "estimate": 27.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 43.1,
      "conf_low": 23.1,
      "estimate": 30.5,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 52,
      "conf_low": 29.8,
      "estimate": 38.8,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 72.2,
      "conf_low": 54,
      "estimate": 62.2,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 74.1,
      "conf_low": 58.7,
      "estimate": 65.7,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 74.3,
      "conf_low": 59,
      "estimate": 66,
      "measures": "Election-year census measures",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 48.1,
      "band_low": 26.7,
      "conf_high": 48.1,
      "conf_low": 26.7,
      "estimate": 35.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 51.4,
      "band_low": 32.8,
      "conf_high": 51.4,
      "conf_low": 32.8,
      "estimate": 39.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 56.5,
      "band_low": 37.9,
      "conf_high": 56.5,
      "conf_low": 37.9,
      "estimate": 45.2,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 61,
      "band_low": 42.2,
      "conf_high": 61,
      "conf_low": 42.2,
      "estimate": 49.7,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 78.2,
      "band_low": 65,
      "conf_high": 78.2,
      "conf_low": 65,
      "estimate": 70.5,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 79.4,
      "band_low": 66.6,
      "conf_high": 79.4,
      "conf_low": 66.6,
      "estimate": 71.5,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 78.1,
      "band_low": 63.1,
      "conf_high": 78.1,
      "conf_low": 63.1,
      "estimate": 68.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 77.1,
      "band_low": 59.8,
      "conf_high": 77.1,
      "conf_low": 59.8,
      "estimate": 68.8,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 79.3,
      "band_low": 62.8,
      "conf_high": 79.3,
      "conf_low": 62.8,
      "estimate": 70.9,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 84.2,
      "band_low": 71.7,
      "conf_high": 84.2,
      "conf_low": 71.7,
      "estimate": 77.8,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 85.9,
      "band_low": 74.6,
      "conf_high": 85.9,
      "conf_low": 74.6,
      "estimate": 80.3,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 91.2,
      "band_low": 85.9,
      "conf_high": 91.2,
      "conf_low": 85.9,
      "estimate": 88.4,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 91.4,
      "band_low": 85.6,
      "conf_high": 91.4,
      "conf_low": 85.6,
      "estimate": 88.3,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 90.4,
      "band_low": 83.6,
      "conf_high": 90.4,
      "conf_low": 83.6,
      "estimate": 86.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.9,
      "band_low": 23.2,
      "conf_high": 42.9,
      "conf_low": 23.2,
      "estimate": 33.8,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.9,
      "band_low": 20.9,
      "conf_high": 37.9,
      "conf_low": 20.9,
      "estimate": 29.4,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.6,
      "band_low": 23.7,
      "conf_high": 37.6,
      "conf_low": 23.7,
      "estimate": 31.4,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.6,
      "band_low": 22.6,
      "conf_high": 37.6,
      "conf_low": 22.6,
      "estimate": 31.2,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.2,
      "band_low": 18.3,
      "conf_high": 37.2,
      "conf_low": 18.3,
      "estimate": 28.8,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 36.7,
      "band_low": 19.2,
      "conf_high": 36.7,
      "conf_low": 19.2,
      "estimate": 28.9,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 34.4,
      "band_low": 19,
      "conf_high": 34.4,
      "conf_low": 19,
      "estimate": 27.4,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 57,
      "conf_low": 34.8,
      "estimate": 43.5,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 57.1,
      "conf_low": 39.5,
      "estimate": 45.9,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 59.6,
      "conf_low": 42.5,
      "estimate": 49.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 64.4,
      "conf_low": 47.1,
      "estimate": 53.9,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 79.4,
      "conf_low": 67.4,
      "estimate": 72.2,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 80.5,
      "conf_low": 69.2,
      "estimate": 73,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 79.2,
      "conf_low": 67.2,
      "estimate": 71.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 29.5,
      "band_low": 11.4,
      "conf_high": 29.5,
      "conf_low": 11.4,
      "estimate": 17.8,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 31.9,
      "band_low": 13.1,
      "conf_high": 31.9,
      "conf_low": 13.1,
      "estimate": 19.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.5,
      "band_low": 16.7,
      "conf_high": 37.5,
      "conf_low": 16.7,
      "estimate": 24.3,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 47,
      "band_low": 21.7,
      "conf_high": 47,
      "conf_low": 21.7,
      "estimate": 31.2,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 68.3,
      "band_low": 45.9,
      "conf_high": 68.3,
      "conf_low": 45.9,
      "estimate": 55.5,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 71.2,
      "band_low": 49.3,
      "conf_high": 71.2,
      "conf_low": 49.3,
      "estimate": 58.7,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 71.4,
      "band_low": 49.4,
      "conf_high": 71.4,
      "conf_low": 49.4,
      "estimate": 58.7,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 61.7,
      "band_low": 48.3,
      "conf_high": 61.7,
      "conf_low": 48.3,
      "estimate": 55.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 64.5,
      "band_low": 52.1,
      "conf_high": 64.5,
      "conf_low": 52.1,
      "estimate": 58.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 72.1,
      "band_low": 62.5,
      "conf_high": 72.1,
      "conf_low": 62.5,
      "estimate": 67.7,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 75.4,
      "band_low": 67,
      "conf_high": 75.4,
      "conf_low": 67,
      "estimate": 71.4,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 83,
      "band_low": 76.6,
      "conf_high": 83,
      "conf_low": 76.6,
      "estimate": 79.9,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 85.3,
      "band_low": 79.7,
      "conf_high": 85.3,
      "conf_low": 79.7,
      "estimate": 82.5,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 84.9,
      "band_low": 79.2,
      "conf_high": 84.9,
      "conf_low": 79.2,
      "estimate": 82,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.8,
      "band_low": 23.5,
      "conf_high": 42.8,
      "conf_low": 23.5,
      "estimate": 33.7,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.5,
      "band_low": 22.5,
      "conf_high": 41.5,
      "conf_low": 22.5,
      "estimate": 33.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.1,
      "band_low": 26.2,
      "conf_high": 43.1,
      "conf_low": 26.2,
      "estimate": 35.4,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.4,
      "band_low": 26.8,
      "conf_high": 43.4,
      "conf_low": 26.8,
      "estimate": 35.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 40.7,
      "band_low": 24.2,
      "conf_high": 40.7,
      "conf_low": 24.2,
      "estimate": 32.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.4,
      "band_low": 26.6,
      "conf_high": 42.4,
      "conf_low": 26.6,
      "estimate": 34.8,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.6,
      "band_low": 26.7,
      "conf_high": 41.6,
      "conf_low": 26.7,
      "estimate": 34.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 36.6,
      "conf_low": 19.8,
      "estimate": 26.2,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3102,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 38.3,
      "conf_low": 21.9,
      "estimate": 28.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 41.2,
      "conf_low": 22.3,
      "estimate": 29.7,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 50.5,
      "conf_low": 28,
      "estimate": 37.5,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 70.6,
      "conf_low": 52,
      "estimate": 60.6,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 73.7,
      "conf_low": 57.8,
      "estimate": 65.1,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3104,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 74.3,
      "conf_low": 59,
      "estimate": 66,
      "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 56,
      "band_low": 29.6,
      "conf_high": 56,
      "conf_low": 29.6,
      "estimate": 40.8,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 56.5,
      "band_low": 33.3,
      "conf_high": 56.5,
      "conf_low": 33.3,
      "estimate": 43.1,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 60.2,
      "band_low": 38,
      "conf_high": 60.2,
      "conf_low": 38,
      "estimate": 47.9,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 64.5,
      "band_low": 43.4,
      "conf_high": 64.5,
      "conf_low": 43.4,
      "estimate": 52.8,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 79.7,
      "band_low": 64.9,
      "conf_high": 79.7,
      "conf_low": 64.9,
      "estimate": 72,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 79,
      "band_low": 65.4,
      "conf_high": 79,
      "conf_low": 65.4,
      "estimate": 71.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 76.6,
      "band_low": 61.1,
      "conf_high": 76.6,
      "conf_low": 61.1,
      "estimate": 67.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 82,
      "band_low": 64.8,
      "conf_high": 82,
      "conf_low": 64.8,
      "estimate": 74.1,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 82,
      "band_low": 67.5,
      "conf_high": 82,
      "conf_low": 67.5,
      "estimate": 74.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 85.1,
      "band_low": 73.7,
      "conf_high": 85.1,
      "conf_low": 73.7,
      "estimate": 79.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 86.4,
      "band_low": 76.4,
      "conf_high": 86.4,
      "conf_low": 76.4,
      "estimate": 81.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 90.8,
      "band_low": 85.3,
      "conf_high": 90.8,
      "conf_low": 85.3,
      "estimate": 88,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 89.8,
      "band_low": 83.2,
      "conf_high": 89.8,
      "conf_low": 83.2,
      "estimate": 86.4,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 88.1,
      "band_low": 80.7,
      "conf_high": 88.1,
      "conf_low": 80.7,
      "estimate": 84,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.7,
      "band_low": 24.3,
      "conf_high": 42.7,
      "conf_low": 24.3,
      "estimate": 34.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.7,
      "band_low": 21.1,
      "conf_high": 37.7,
      "conf_low": 21.1,
      "estimate": 29.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 38.2,
      "band_low": 24.1,
      "conf_high": 38.2,
      "conf_low": 24.1,
      "estimate": 31.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 38.6,
      "band_low": 23.2,
      "conf_high": 38.6,
      "conf_low": 23.2,
      "estimate": 31.3,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 37.2,
      "band_low": 18.4,
      "conf_high": 37.2,
      "conf_low": 18.4,
      "estimate": 28.9,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 36.8,
      "band_low": 19.3,
      "conf_high": 36.8,
      "conf_low": 19.3,
      "estimate": 29,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 35.1,
      "band_low": 19.2,
      "conf_high": 35.1,
      "conf_low": 19.2,
      "estimate": 27.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 62.8,
      "conf_low": 38.6,
      "estimate": 49.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 61.3,
      "conf_low": 41.1,
      "estimate": 49.8,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 62.8,
      "conf_low": 43.7,
      "estimate": 52.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 67.5,
      "conf_low": 49.1,
      "estimate": 57.4,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 81,
      "conf_low": 68.2,
      "estimate": 74.3,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 80.5,
      "conf_low": 68.6,
      "estimate": 73.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 78.6,
      "conf_low": 65.8,
      "estimate": 70.8,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 33.3,
      "band_low": 11.4,
      "conf_high": 33.3,
      "conf_low": 11.4,
      "estimate": 19.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 34.2,
      "band_low": 10.8,
      "conf_high": 34.2,
      "conf_low": 10.8,
      "estimate": 19.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 40.3,
      "band_low": 16.7,
      "conf_high": 40.3,
      "conf_low": 16.7,
      "estimate": 25.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 49.6,
      "band_low": 22.5,
      "conf_high": 49.6,
      "conf_low": 22.5,
      "estimate": 33,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 70.6,
      "band_low": 47.3,
      "conf_high": 70.6,
      "conf_low": 47.3,
      "estimate": 57.4,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 72.5,
      "band_low": 48.7,
      "conf_high": 72.5,
      "conf_low": 48.7,
      "estimate": 59.1,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 71.8,
      "band_low": 47.8,
      "conf_high": 71.8,
      "conf_low": 47.8,
      "estimate": 58.4,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "Five axes",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 66.8,
      "band_low": 53.9,
      "conf_high": 66.8,
      "conf_low": 53.9,
      "estimate": 60.7,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 68.6,
      "band_low": 56.7,
      "conf_high": 68.6,
      "conf_low": 56.7,
      "estimate": 63.1,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 75.4,
      "band_low": 66,
      "conf_high": 75.4,
      "conf_low": 66,
      "estimate": 71.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 78.5,
      "band_low": 69.9,
      "conf_high": 78.5,
      "conf_low": 69.9,
      "estimate": 74.7,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 85.1,
      "band_low": 79.9,
      "conf_high": 85.1,
      "conf_low": 79.9,
      "estimate": 82.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 86.1,
      "band_low": 81.2,
      "conf_high": 86.1,
      "conf_low": 81.2,
      "estimate": 83.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 85.2,
      "band_low": 80.1,
      "conf_high": 85.2,
      "conf_low": 80.1,
      "estimate": 82.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "Five axes and state baselines",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.6,
      "band_low": 23.4,
      "conf_high": 42.6,
      "conf_low": 23.4,
      "estimate": 33.7,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.5,
      "band_low": 22.8,
      "conf_high": 41.5,
      "conf_low": 22.8,
      "estimate": 33.1,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.3,
      "band_low": 26.2,
      "conf_high": 43.3,
      "conf_low": 26.2,
      "estimate": 35.5,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.4,
      "band_low": 26.7,
      "conf_high": 43.4,
      "conf_low": 26.7,
      "estimate": 35.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": 41.5,
      "band_low": 24.3,
      "conf_high": 41.5,
      "conf_low": 24.3,
      "estimate": 32.9,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": 43.2,
      "band_low": 26.8,
      "conf_high": 43.2,
      "conf_low": 26.8,
      "estimate": 35.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": 42.4,
      "band_low": 26.9,
      "conf_high": 42.4,
      "conf_low": 26.9,
      "estimate": 35.1,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "State baselines alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 38.2,
      "conf_low": 19.6,
      "estimate": 26.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 38.7,
      "conf_low": 19.7,
      "estimate": 26.8,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 43.1,
      "conf_low": 21.8,
      "estimate": 29.6,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 52.1,
      "conf_low": 27.8,
      "estimate": 37.7,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 72.1,
      "conf_low": 52.1,
      "estimate": 61.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 73.9,
      "conf_low": 56.3,
      "estimate": 64.2,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 73.6,
      "conf_low": 56.7,
      "estimate": 64.3,
      "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
      "n_units": 3110,
      "series": "Nine measures",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "r2_by_year",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.",
    "In the last four views the counties that lack the fixed census measures are dropped from every election."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Five axes": "cat1",
      "Five axes and state baselines": "accent",
      "Nine measures": "cat6",
      "State baselines alone": "muted"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "Nine measures"
    ],
    "hi": "band_high",
    "lo": "band_low",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1999,
      2025
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Presidential election",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      0,
      100
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0,
      "suffix": "%"
    },
    "yLabel": "Variance of the county margin reproduced (R-squared, %)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Share of the variance of the county two-party margin reproduced by regressions on county characteristics, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "key": "measures",
        "label": "Census measures"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Regression"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "R-squared (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_units",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Vote-weighted, the five axes reproduce {fact:r2_2000_w} of the variance of the county margin in 2000 and {fact:r2_2024_w} in 2024, and {fact:r2fe_2024_w} in 2024 with state baselines",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "measures": "Election-year census measures",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes",
      "label": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once, the five axes reproduce less of the variance than vote-weighted in every election, and with state baselines the share is {fact:r2fe_2000_u} in 2000 and {fact:r2fe_2024_u} in 2024. Each line is the R-squared of a regression of the county margin; bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states, drawn for the first three series.",
      "filter": {
        "measures": "Election-year census measures",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal",
      "label": "County-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, the five axes reproduce {fact:r2_2000_u} of the variance of the county margin in 2000 and {fact:r2_2024_u} in 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Holding the census measures at their 2024 values makes the 2000 share lower than with the measures of the year, so the rise from 2000 is not an artifact of interpolating the measures. The counties are those that also have 2024 measures, a few fewer than in the main sample. Each line is an R-squared; bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states.",
      "filter": {
        "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes_24",
      "label": "Vote-weighted, 2024 census measures",
      "title": "With the 2024 census measures for every election, the vote-weighted R-squared of the five axes is {fact:v24r2_2000_w} in 2000 and {fact:v24r2_2024_w} in 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The same check counting each county once: the share in 2000 is lower than with the census measures of the year. Each line is an R-squared; bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states.",
      "filter": {
        "measures": "2024 census measures for every election",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal_24",
      "label": "County-equal, 2024 census measures",
      "title": "Counting each county once, with the 2024 census measures for every election, the five axes reproduce {fact:v24r2_2000_u} in 2000 and {fact:v24r2_2024_u} in 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The rise from 2012 to 2016 is {fact:v00chg_2012_2016_w} points with the 2000 measures against {fact:chv_five_2012_2016_w} with the measures of the year, and the change from 2016 to 2024 is {fact:v00chg_2016_2024_w} against {fact:chv_five_2016_2024_w}. The counties are those that also have 2000 measures. Each line is an R-squared; bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states.",
      "filter": {
        "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes_00",
      "label": "Vote-weighted, 2000 census measures",
      "title": "With the 2000 census measures for every election, the vote-weighted R-squared of the five axes is {fact:v00r2_2000_w} in 2000, {fact:v00r2_2016_w} in 2016 and {fact:v00r2_2024_w} in 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The same check counting each county once. Each line is an R-squared; bands are 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states.",
      "filter": {
        "measures": "2000 census measures for every election",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal_00",
      "label": "County-equal, 2000 census measures",
      "title": "Counting each county once, with the 2000 census measures for every election, the five axes reproduce {fact:v00r2_2000_u} in 2000 and {fact:v00r2_2024_u} in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}