{
  "alt": "Dot chart with five panels, one for each axis, and a row for each measure in the axis, showing the 2024 correlation with the county margin vote-weighted and county-equal. College share is {fact:m_ba_w} and the share without a high school diploma {fact:m_lesshs_w}; median household income is {fact:m_inc_w} and per capita income {fact:m_pci_w}; the white share is {fact:m_white_w} and the Asian share {fact:m_asian_w}; rural share is {fact:m_rural_w} and the rural-urban code {fact:m_rucc_w}.",
  "caption": "Within race and ethnicity the white share ({fact:m_white_w}) is negative while the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share are positive, and within income per capita income ({fact:m_pci_w}) has a larger correlation than median household income ({fact:m_inc_w}). Each dot is the correlation across the same counties with a 95% interval with errors clustered by state.",
  "data": [
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "conf_high": 0.722,
      "conf_low": 0.604,
      "estimate": 0.663,
      "measure": "Bachelor's degree or more",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "conf_high": 0.638,
      "conf_low": 0.474,
      "estimate": 0.556,
      "measure": "Bachelor's degree or more",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "conf_high": 0.139,
      "conf_low": -0.196,
      "estimate": -0.029,
      "measure": "No high school diploma",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "conf_high": -0.041,
      "conf_low": -0.259,
      "estimate": -0.15,
      "measure": "No high school diploma",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "conf_high": 0.504,
      "conf_low": 0.29,
      "estimate": 0.397,
      "measure": "Median household income",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "conf_high": 0.434,
      "conf_low": 0.173,
      "estimate": 0.304,
      "measure": "Median household income",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "conf_high": 0.64,
      "conf_low": 0.465,
      "estimate": 0.553,
      "measure": "Per capita income",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "conf_high": 0.51,
      "conf_low": 0.266,
      "estimate": 0.388,
      "measure": "Per capita income",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "conf_high": 0.089,
      "conf_low": -0.142,
      "estimate": -0.027,
      "measure": "Poverty rate",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "conf_high": 0.198,
      "conf_low": -0.094,
      "estimate": 0.052,
      "measure": "Poverty rate",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": -0.44,
      "conf_low": -0.707,
      "estimate": -0.574,
      "measure": "Non-Hispanic white share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": -0.285,
      "conf_low": -0.707,
      "estimate": -0.496,
      "measure": "Non-Hispanic white share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.535,
      "conf_low": 0.236,
      "estimate": 0.386,
      "measure": "Non-Hispanic Black share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.522,
      "conf_low": 0.35,
      "estimate": 0.436,
      "measure": "Non-Hispanic Black share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.38,
      "conf_low": 0.098,
      "estimate": 0.239,
      "measure": "Hispanic share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.304,
      "conf_low": -0.093,
      "estimate": 0.105,
      "measure": "Hispanic share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.693,
      "conf_low": 0.356,
      "estimate": 0.525,
      "measure": "Non-Hispanic Asian share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.585,
      "conf_low": 0.311,
      "estimate": 0.448,
      "measure": "Non-Hispanic Asian share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.718,
      "conf_low": 0.365,
      "estimate": 0.541,
      "measure": "Foreign-born share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "conf_high": 0.526,
      "conf_low": 0.216,
      "estimate": 0.371,
      "measure": "Foreign-born share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "conf_high": -0.214,
      "conf_low": -0.406,
      "estimate": -0.31,
      "measure": "Median age",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "conf_high": -0.118,
      "conf_low": -0.272,
      "estimate": -0.195,
      "measure": "Median age",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "conf_high": -0.235,
      "conf_low": -0.451,
      "estimate": -0.343,
      "measure": "Share aged 65 and over",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "conf_high": -0.117,
      "conf_low": -0.282,
      "estimate": -0.2,
      "measure": "Share aged 65 and over",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "conf_high": 0.253,
      "conf_low": -0.004,
      "estimate": 0.125,
      "measure": "Share under 30",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "conf_high": 0.215,
      "conf_low": 0.053,
      "estimate": 0.134,
      "measure": "Share under 30",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "conf_high": -0.564,
      "conf_low": -0.741,
      "estimate": -0.653,
      "measure": "Rural share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "conf_high": -0.462,
      "conf_low": -0.592,
      "estimate": -0.527,
      "measure": "Rural share",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "conf_high": -0.444,
      "conf_low": -0.581,
      "estimate": -0.513,
      "measure": "Rural-urban continuum code",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "conf_high": -0.338,
      "conf_low": -0.489,
      "estimate": -0.414,
      "measure": "Rural-urban continuum code",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    }
  ],
  "id": "measures_2024",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.",
    "Poverty rate is listed with income because it measures the same dimension from the other end; the chapters on hardship take it up. The rural-urban continuum code runs from the most urban class to the most rural class, in the 2023 edition."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "County-equal": "highlight",
      "Vote-weighted": "total"
    },
    "facet": "axis",
    "facetColumns": 1,
    "group": "weighting",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "legend": true,
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -0.9,
      0.9
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Correlation with the county two-party margin (Democratic positive)",
    "y": "measure"
  },
  "subtitle": "Correlation of fifteen county measures, grouped by the five axes, with the county two-party margin in 2024, vote-weighted and county-equal",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "axis",
        "label": "Axis"
      },
      {
        "key": "measure",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Correlation"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_units",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The correlation depends on the measure within an axis in 2024, from {fact:m_lesshs_w} for the share without a high school diploma to {fact:m_ba_w} for college share, vote-weighted",
  "type": "dot",
  "width": "wide"
}