{
  "alt": "Line chart of standardized coefficients of five axes in a joint regression of the county margin in seven presidential elections, in four views. Vote-weighted, college share rises from {fact:b_edu_2000_w} to {fact:b_edu_2024_w}, the white share runs from {fact:b_race_2000_w} to {fact:b_race_2024_w}, income stays negative at {fact:b_inc_2000_w} in 2000 and {fact:b_inc_2024_w} in 2024, median age falls from {fact:b_age_2000_w} to {fact:b_age_2024_w}, and rural share is {fact:b_rural_2000_w} in 2000 and {fact:b_rural_2024_w} in 2024.",
  "caption": "College share's coefficient rises through 2024 while the white share's stays between {fact:b_race_2024_w} and {fact:b_race_2016_w}, and median age's falls from {fact:b_age_2000_w} in 2000 to {fact:b_age_2024_w}. Each line is the standardized coefficient of one axis in a regression of the standardized margin on all five standardized axes, counties weighted by two-party votes. Bands are 95% intervals with errors clustered by state, drawn for education, income and race and ethnicity only.",
  "data": [
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      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.394,
      "band_low": 0.112,
      "conf_high": 0.394,
      "conf_low": 0.112,
      "estimate": 0.253,
      "first_share": 0.5,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.624,
      "band_low": 0.351,
      "conf_high": 0.624,
      "conf_low": 0.351,
      "estimate": 0.487,
      "first_share": 50.8,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.62,
      "band_low": 0.395,
      "conf_high": 0.62,
      "conf_low": 0.395,
      "estimate": 0.507,
      "first_share": 54.8,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.626,
      "band_low": 0.402,
      "conf_high": 0.626,
      "conf_low": 0.402,
      "estimate": 0.514,
      "first_share": 27.4,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.708,
      "band_low": 0.541,
      "conf_high": 0.708,
      "conf_low": 0.541,
      "estimate": 0.624,
      "first_share": 65.3,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.744,
      "band_low": 0.582,
      "conf_high": 0.744,
      "conf_low": 0.582,
      "estimate": 0.663,
      "first_share": 98.7,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
      "band_high": 0.795,
      "band_low": 0.63,
      "conf_high": 0.795,
      "conf_low": 0.63,
      "estimate": 0.712,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.06,
      "band_low": -0.277,
      "conf_high": -0.06,
      "conf_low": -0.277,
      "estimate": -0.169,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.197,
      "band_low": -0.417,
      "conf_high": -0.197,
      "conf_low": -0.417,
      "estimate": -0.307,
      "first_share": 0.1,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.405,
      "conf_high": -0.171,
      "conf_low": -0.405,
      "estimate": -0.288,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.428,
      "conf_high": -0.169,
      "conf_low": -0.428,
      "estimate": -0.298,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.367,
      "conf_high": -0.126,
      "conf_low": -0.367,
      "estimate": -0.247,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.357,
      "conf_high": -0.101,
      "conf_low": -0.357,
      "estimate": -0.229,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.402,
      "conf_high": -0.109,
      "conf_low": -0.402,
      "estimate": -0.255,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.353,
      "band_low": -0.655,
      "conf_high": -0.353,
      "conf_low": -0.655,
      "estimate": -0.504,
      "first_share": 96.5,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.33,
      "band_low": -0.615,
      "conf_high": -0.33,
      "conf_low": -0.615,
      "estimate": -0.473,
      "first_share": 48.9,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.616,
      "conf_high": -0.358,
      "conf_low": -0.616,
      "estimate": -0.487,
      "first_share": 45.2,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.688,
      "conf_high": -0.422,
      "conf_low": -0.688,
      "estimate": -0.555,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.696,
      "conf_high": -0.481,
      "conf_low": -0.696,
      "estimate": -0.589,
      "first_share": 34.6,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.63,
      "conf_high": -0.392,
      "conf_low": -0.63,
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      "first_share": 1.3,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.569,
      "conf_high": -0.291,
      "conf_low": -0.569,
      "estimate": -0.43,
      "first_share": 0.1,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.486,
      "conf_low": 0.102,
      "estimate": 0.294,
      "first_share": 1.1,
      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "band_low": null,
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      "conf_low": 0.085,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "band_low": null,
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      "conf_low": 0.022,
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    },
    {
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      "band_low": null,
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
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    {
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      "band_low": null,
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    },
    {
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "band_low": null,
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      "conf_low": -0.379,
      "estimate": -0.246,
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    {
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    {
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    {
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
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    },
    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
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      "conf_high": 0.377,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
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      "conf_high": 0.459,
      "conf_low": 0.227,
      "estimate": 0.343,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.605,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
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    },
    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
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    },
    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "model": "All five together",
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    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "model": "All five together",
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    },
    {
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "band_low": null,
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "conf_high": 0.209,
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "conf_high": 0.202,
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.123,
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      "estimate": -0.202,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "conf_high": -0.063,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.078,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "conf_high": -0.085,
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      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "conf_high": -0.095,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3111,
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      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "conf_high": -0.098,
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      "model": "All five together",
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      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "conf_high": -0.105,
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      "model": "All five together",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.384,
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      "estimate": 0.263,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.62,
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      "estimate": 0.474,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.617,
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      "estimate": 0.489,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.596,
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      "estimate": 0.471,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.704,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "band_low": 0.603,
      "conf_high": 0.742,
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      "estimate": 0.673,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.803,
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      "estimate": 0.729,
      "first_share": 89.8,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "conf_high": -0.175,
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      "estimate": -0.249,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.424,
      "conf_high": -0.308,
      "conf_low": -0.424,
      "estimate": -0.366,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.437,
      "conf_high": -0.32,
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      "estimate": -0.379,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.453,
      "conf_high": -0.33,
      "conf_low": -0.453,
      "estimate": -0.391,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.293,
      "band_low": -0.401,
      "conf_high": -0.293,
      "conf_low": -0.401,
      "estimate": -0.347,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.305,
      "band_low": -0.428,
      "conf_high": -0.305,
      "conf_low": -0.428,
      "estimate": -0.367,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.478,
      "conf_high": -0.331,
      "conf_low": -0.478,
      "estimate": -0.405,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.638,
      "band_low": -0.904,
      "conf_high": -0.638,
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      "estimate": -0.771,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.889,
      "conf_high": -0.659,
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      "estimate": -0.774,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.647,
      "band_low": -0.876,
      "conf_high": -0.647,
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      "estimate": -0.762,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
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      "band_low": -0.912,
      "conf_high": -0.703,
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      "estimate": -0.808,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.712,
      "band_low": -0.875,
      "conf_high": -0.712,
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      "estimate": -0.793,
      "first_share": 99.8,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.578,
      "band_low": -0.813,
      "conf_high": -0.578,
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      "estimate": -0.695,
      "first_share": 59.7,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.479,
      "band_low": -0.764,
      "conf_high": -0.479,
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      "estimate": -0.621,
      "first_share": 10.2,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "estimate": 0.218,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "estimate": 0.228,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "conf_high": 0.246,
      "conf_low": 0.049,
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      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "conf_high": 0.159,
      "conf_low": 0.04,
      "estimate": 0.1,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "estimate": -0.098,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
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      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "estimate": 0.331,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "estimate": 0.35,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.416,
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      "estimate": 0.336,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "conf_high": 0.556,
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      "estimate": 0.492,
      "first_share": 0.1,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "band_low": 0.469,
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      "estimate": 0.526,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Education",
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      "estimate": 0.537,
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      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.227,
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      "estimate": -0.152,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.306,
      "conf_high": -0.182,
      "conf_low": -0.306,
      "estimate": -0.244,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
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      "band_low": -0.279,
      "conf_high": -0.17,
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      "estimate": -0.225,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.171,
      "band_low": -0.284,
      "conf_high": -0.171,
      "conf_low": -0.284,
      "estimate": -0.228,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.15,
      "band_low": -0.239,
      "conf_high": -0.15,
      "conf_low": -0.239,
      "estimate": -0.195,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.137,
      "band_low": -0.224,
      "conf_high": -0.137,
      "conf_low": -0.224,
      "estimate": -0.181,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Income",
      "band_high": -0.125,
      "band_low": -0.226,
      "conf_high": -0.125,
      "conf_low": -0.226,
      "estimate": -0.176,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.596,
      "band_low": -0.763,
      "conf_high": -0.596,
      "conf_low": -0.763,
      "estimate": -0.68,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.615,
      "band_low": -0.785,
      "conf_high": -0.615,
      "conf_low": -0.785,
      "estimate": -0.7,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.659,
      "band_low": -0.847,
      "conf_high": -0.659,
      "conf_low": -0.847,
      "estimate": -0.753,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.707,
      "band_low": -0.89,
      "conf_high": -0.707,
      "conf_low": -0.89,
      "estimate": -0.799,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.748,
      "band_low": -0.911,
      "conf_high": -0.748,
      "conf_low": -0.911,
      "estimate": -0.83,
      "first_share": 100,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.68,
      "band_low": -0.864,
      "conf_high": -0.68,
      "conf_low": -0.864,
      "estimate": -0.772,
      "first_share": 99.9,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Race and ethnicity",
      "band_high": -0.614,
      "band_low": -0.839,
      "conf_high": -0.614,
      "conf_low": -0.839,
      "estimate": -0.727,
      "first_share": 98,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.175,
      "conf_low": 0.057,
      "estimate": 0.116,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.195,
      "conf_low": 0.069,
      "estimate": 0.132,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.173,
      "conf_low": 0.06,
      "estimate": 0.116,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.179,
      "conf_low": 0.076,
      "estimate": 0.127,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.157,
      "conf_low": 0.071,
      "estimate": 0.114,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.148,
      "conf_low": 0.059,
      "estimate": 0.103,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Age",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.152,
      "conf_low": 0.056,
      "estimate": 0.104,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.05,
      "conf_low": -0.169,
      "estimate": -0.11,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": 0.016,
      "conf_low": -0.103,
      "estimate": -0.044,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.007,
      "conf_low": -0.116,
      "estimate": -0.062,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.016,
      "conf_low": -0.119,
      "estimate": -0.067,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.029,
      "conf_low": -0.124,
      "estimate": -0.077,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.049,
      "conf_low": -0.141,
      "estimate": -0.095,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "axis": "Rurality",
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "conf_high": -0.06,
      "conf_low": -0.152,
      "estimate": -0.106,
      "first_share": 0,
      "model": "All five with state baselines",
      "n_units": 3103,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "joint_by_year",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.",
    "Standardization uses the weighted mean and standard deviation of the weighting shown, in the election shown."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Age": "cat6",
      "Education": "cat1",
      "Income": "cat3",
      "Race and ethnicity": "cat7",
      "Rurality": "cat2"
    },
    "hi": "band_high",
    "lo": "band_low",
    "series": "axis",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1999,
      2025
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Presidential election",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -1,
      1
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "yLabel": "Standardized coefficient with the other four axes held fixed"
  },
  "subtitle": "Standardized coefficients from a regression of the county two-party margin on all five axes, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "key": "model",
        "label": "Model"
      },
      {
        "key": "axis",
        "label": "Axis"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Coefficient"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "first_share",
        "label": "Share of resamples with the largest absolute coefficient (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_units",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Held together, college share's coefficient rose from {fact:b_edu_2000_w} in 2000 to {fact:b_edu_2024_w} in 2024 and income's was below zero in every election, vote-weighted",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "model": "All five together",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes",
      "label": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once, the white share has the largest coefficient in the point estimates through 2016 and college share from 2020, when college share leads in {fact:jfirst_edu_2020_u} of resamples; income's coefficient is {fact:b_inc_2024_u} in 2024. Each line is a standardized coefficient from a regression of the county margin on the five axes; bands are 95% intervals with errors clustered by state, drawn for education, income and race and ethnicity only.",
      "filter": {
        "model": "All five together",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal",
      "label": "County-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, college share's coefficient rose from {fact:b_edu_2000_u} in 2000 to {fact:b_edu_2024_u} in 2024 and is the largest in {fact:jfirst_edu_2024_u} of resamples in 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "With a baseline margin for each state the white share has the largest coefficient in the point estimates through 2020 and college share in 2024, when college share leads in {fact:jffirst_edu_2024_w} of resamples. Income's coefficient is larger in size in every election than without baselines, {fact:bfe_inc_2024_w} in 2024. Each line is a standardized coefficient from a regression on the five axes and a baseline for each state; bands are 95% intervals with errors clustered by state, drawn for education, income and race and ethnicity only.",
      "filter": {
        "model": "All five with state baselines",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes_fe",
      "label": "Vote-weighted, with state baselines",
      "title": "With a baseline for each state, the white share's coefficient is {fact:bfe_race_2000_w} in 2000 and {fact:bfe_race_2024_w} in 2024, vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "With state baselines and each county counted once, the white share has the largest coefficient in the point estimates in every election, {fact:bfe_race_2000_u} in 2000 and {fact:bfe_race_2024_u} in 2024, and college share is {fact:bfe_edu_2024_u} in 2024. Each line is a standardized coefficient with a baseline for each state; bands are 95% intervals with errors clustered by state, drawn for education, income and race and ethnicity only.",
      "filter": {
        "model": "All five with state baselines",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal_fe",
      "label": "County-equal, with state baselines",
      "title": "Counting each county once and adding state baselines, the white share's coefficient is {fact:bfe_race_2024_u} in 2024 and is the largest in {fact:jffirst_race_2024_u} of resamples"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}