{
  "age_old_cut": {
    "display": "65",
    "estimand": "age at which the older-adult share starts",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "residents",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "years of age",
    "value": 65,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "age_young_cut": {
    "display": "30",
    "estimand": "age below which the younger share counts",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "residents",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "years of age",
    "value": 30,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "b_age_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.1,
      0.49
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.29",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median age in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.29425,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_age_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.13,
      0.21
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.04",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median age in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.0375984,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_edu_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.09,
      0.14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.03",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.0250131,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "b_edu_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.11,
      0.39
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.25",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.253233,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_edu_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.48,
      0.64
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.56",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.561353,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "b_edu_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.63,
      0.79
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.71",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.712294,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_inc_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.28,
      -0.06
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.17",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.168642,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_inc_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.23,
      -0.06
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.14",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.141094,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "b_inc_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.4,
      -0.11
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.26",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.255234,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_race_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.65,
      -0.35
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.50",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.50409,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_race_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.7,
      -0.48
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.59",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.588624,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_race_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.57,
      -0.29
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.43",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.430006,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_rural_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.38,
      -0.11
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.25",
    "estimand": "coefficient on rural share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.246142,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "b_rural_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.25,
      0.01
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.12",
    "estimand": "coefficient on rural share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.122474,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "bfe_age_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.02,
      0.13
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.08",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median age in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.0755182,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "bfe_edu_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.48,
      0.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.54",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.537393,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "bfe_edu_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.65,
      0.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.73",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 0.728579,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "bfe_inc_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.48,
      -0.33
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.40",
    "estimand": "coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.404709,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "bfe_race_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.76,
      -0.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.68",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.679899,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "bfe_race_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.9,
      -0.64
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.77",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.771026,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "bfe_race_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.84,
      -0.61
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.73",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.726544,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "bfe_race_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.76,
      -0.48
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.62",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.621476,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "bfe_rural_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.14,
      -0.04
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.09",
    "estimand": "coefficient on rural share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -0.0898067,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "big_cut": {
    "display": "250,000",
    "estimand": "vote cut for a large county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes",
    "value": 250000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_n_2000": {
    "display": "76",
    "estimand": "count of counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 76,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_n_2024": {
    "display": "135",
    "estimand": "count of counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 135,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_share_2000": {
    "display": "35%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "share of two-party votes",
    "value": 35.0928,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_share_2024": {
    "display": "46%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "share of two-party votes",
    "value": 46.3997,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "chr_edu_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.31,
      0.47
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.38",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the correlation of the county margin with college share (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "change in correlation",
    "value": 0.381019,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chr_race_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.13,
      0.03
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.05",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the correlation of the county margin with non-Hispanic white share (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "change in correlation",
    "value": -0.0544002,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chr_rural_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.27,
      -0.11
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.19",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the correlation of the county margin with rural share (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "change in correlation",
    "value": -0.191699,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chs_explained_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      7,
      13.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+10.3",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 10.2529,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chs_resid_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -3.6,
      -0.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.0",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -1.99136,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chv_five_2000_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      22,
      39.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+31.3",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 31.3407,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chv_five_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      18.9,
      37.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+27.8",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 27.7561,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chv_five_2012_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      15.3,
      23.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+19.9",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 19.8969,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chv_five_2016_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -7.1,
      1.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−3.6",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": -3.58461,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "chv_state_2000_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -16.8,
      4.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−6.7",
    "estimand": "change between the two elections in the R-squared of a baseline for each state alone (the same states are drawn for both elections)",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": -6.71964,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "ct_votes_2020": {
    "display": "1.16%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in the Connecticut counties left out for a missing census measure",
    "n": 8,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "two-party votes in counties with returns, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes",
    "value": 1.15772,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ct_votes_2024": {
    "display": "1.14%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in the Connecticut counties left out for a missing census measure",
    "n": 8,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "two-party votes in counties with returns, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes",
    "value": 1.13755,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "first_edu_2020_u": {
    "display": "34%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 33.75,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_edu_2020_w": {
    "display": "17%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 17.35,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_edu_2024_u": {
    "display": "59%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 58.75,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_edu_2024_w": {
    "display": "60%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 59.9,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_race_2000_w": {
    "display": "87%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 86.85,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_race_2016_u": {
    "display": "85%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 85.25,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_race_2016_w": {
    "display": "79%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 78.7,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_race_2020_u": {
    "display": "52%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 52,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_race_2020_w": {
    "display": "23%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 22.6,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_race_hi_u": {
    "display": "98%",
    "estimand": "highest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2016",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 98.2,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_race_hi_w": {
    "display": "93%",
    "estimand": "highest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2016",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 93.35,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_race_lo_u": {
    "display": "70%",
    "estimand": "lowest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2016",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 69.95,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_race_lo_w": {
    "display": "76%",
    "estimand": "lowest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2016",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 75.85,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_rural_2020_u": {
    "display": "14%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 14.25,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "first_rural_2020_w": {
    "display": "60%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 60.05,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "first_rural_2024_w": {
    "display": "38%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "2,000 resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 37.9,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "gap_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.04,
      0.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.03",
    "estimand": "absolute correlation of the first-ranked axis minus that of the second-ranked axis",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in absolute correlation",
    "value": 0.0288267,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "gap_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.05,
      0.09
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.01",
    "estimand": "absolute correlation of the first-ranked axis minus that of the second-ranked axis",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in absolute correlation",
    "value": 0.0102116,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jffirst_edu_2024_w": {
    "display": "90%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression with state baselines",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 89.85,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jffirst_race_2000_w": {
    "display": "100%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression with state baselines",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 100,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jffirst_race_2024_u": {
    "display": "98%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression with state baselines",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 97.95,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "jfirst_edu_2004_w": {
    "display": "51%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2004 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 50.85,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_edu_2008_w": {
    "display": "55%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 54.75,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_edu_2016_w": {
    "display": "65%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 65.35,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_edu_2020_u": {
    "display": "56%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 55.5,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "jfirst_edu_2024_u": {
    "display": "77%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 76.8,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "jfirst_edu_2024_w": {
    "display": "100%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 99.95,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_race_2000_w": {
    "display": "97%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 96.5,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_race_2004_w": {
    "display": "49%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2004 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 48.85,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_race_2008_w": {
    "display": "45%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2008 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 45.25,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "jfirst_race_2012_w": {
    "display": "73%",
    "estimand": "share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 presidential election",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of resamples",
    "value": 72.65,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_age29_w": {
    "ci": [
      0,
      0.25
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.12",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with share under 30",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.124716,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_age65_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.45,
      -0.23
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.34",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with share aged 65 and over",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.342794,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_age_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.41,
      -0.21
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.31",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with median age",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.309849,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_asian_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.36,
      0.69
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.52",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic Asian share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.52467,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_ba_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.6,
      0.72
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.66",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with bachelor's degree or more",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.662876,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_black_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.24,
      0.54
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.39",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic Black share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.385523,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_foreign_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.37,
      0.72
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.54",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with foreign-born share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.541321,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_hisp_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.09,
      0.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.11",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with hispanic share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.105479,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "m_hisp_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.1,
      0.38
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.24",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with hispanic share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.239099,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_inc_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.29,
      0.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.40",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with median household income",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.397315,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_lesshs_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      0.14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.03",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with no high school diploma",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.0286329,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_pci_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.47,
      0.64
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.55",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with per capita income",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.552717,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_pov_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.14,
      0.09
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.03",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with poverty rate",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.0265024,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_rucc_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.58,
      -0.44
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.51",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural-urban continuum code",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.512548,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_rural_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.74,
      -0.56
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.65",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.652664,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "m_white_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.71,
      -0.44
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.57",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.573538,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "n_max": {
    "display": "3,113",
    "estimand": "largest number of counties in an election's sample",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3113,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_min": {
    "display": "3,103",
    "estimand": "smallest number of counties in an election's sample",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3103,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_reps": {
    "display": "2,000",
    "estimand": "number of bootstrap replicates",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "resamples of states",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "bootstrap replicates",
    "value": 2000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "pg_race_inc_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.05,
      0.34
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.18",
    "estimand": "absolute correlation of non-Hispanic white share minus that of median household income",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in absolute correlation",
    "value": 0.176223,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "pts_edu_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      3,
      10.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+6.7",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 6.71667,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "pts_edu_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      20.7,
      26.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+23.4",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": 23.3951,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "pts_race_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -17.4,
      -9.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−13.4",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -13.3703,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "pts_race_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -18.7,
      -9.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−14.1",
    "estimand": "coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis",
    "value": -14.1234,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      11,
      33
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "20%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 19.6126,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      30,
      56
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "41%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 40.8102,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2_2012_u": {
    "ci": [
      24,
      49
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "33%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 33.1032,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2_2012_w": {
    "ci": [
      44,
      63
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "52%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 52.2541,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2_2016_u": {
    "ci": [
      49,
      70
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "58%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 57.8024,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      67,
      79
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "72%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 72.1509,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2_2020_w": {
    "ci": [
      67,
      80
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "72%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 71.9876,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      49,
      71
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "59%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 58.6844,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      63,
      78
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "69%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 68.5663,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2cf_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      53,
      71
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "61%",
    "estimand": "R-squared in 2024 if the left-over spread of the five-axis regression stayed at its 2000 value",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 61.4002,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2cfgap_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      2.5,
      13.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.2",
    "estimand": "part of the 2000 to 2024 rise in R-squared that comes from the narrower left-over spread",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 7.16609,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2d_2000": {
    "ci": [
      9.5,
      31.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+21.2",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression minus the county-equal R-squared",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 21.1976,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2d_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.8,
      18.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+9.9",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression minus the county-equal R-squared",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 9.88188,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2dfe_2000": {
    "ci": [
      5.3,
      20.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+13.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression with state baselines minus the county-equal R-squared",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 13.443,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2dfe_2024": {
    "ci": [
      1.2,
      8.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+4.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression with state baselines minus the county-equal R-squared",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 4.67453,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2fe_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      54,
      67
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "61%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 60.6739,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2fe_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      65,
      82
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "74%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 74.1169,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2fe_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      79,
      85
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "82%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 81.9505,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r2fe_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      84,
      90
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "87%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 86.625,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2fu_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      39,
      63
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "49%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes plus the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share (nine measures)",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 49.2295,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2fu_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      67,
      79
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "71%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes plus the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share (nine measures)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 71.1278,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2st_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      24,
      43
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "34%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on a baseline for each state alone",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 34.1557,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2st_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      19,
      34
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "27%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on a baseline for each state alone",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 27.436,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2wi_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      50,
      72
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "61%",
    "estimand": "share of the within-state variance of the county margin that the five axes reproduce",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the within-state variance of the county margin",
    "value": 60.6905,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r2wi_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      77,
      88
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "82%",
    "estimand": "share of the within-state variance of the county margin that the five axes reproduce",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the within-state variance of the county margin",
    "value": 81.568,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_age_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.19,
      0.04
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.08",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with median age",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.0755157,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_age_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.41,
      -0.21
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.31",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with median age",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.309849,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_edu_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.01,
      0.19
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.10",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with college share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.0998055,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r_edu_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.18,
      0.38
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.28",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with college share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.281856,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_edu_2020_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.45,
      0.61
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.53",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with college share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.529699,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r_edu_2020_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.58,
      0.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.64",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with college share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.637249,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_edu_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.47,
      0.64
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.56",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with college share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.556093,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r_edu_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.6,
      0.72
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.66",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with college share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.662876,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_inc_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.01,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.10",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with median household income",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.0961055,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_inc_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.29,
      0.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.40",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with median household income",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.397315,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_race_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.68,
      -0.36
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.52",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.519138,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_race_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.79,
      -0.57
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.68",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.682274,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_race_2020_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.73,
      -0.33
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.53",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.529541,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r_race_2020_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.75,
      -0.51
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.63",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.633056,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_race_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.71,
      -0.44
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.57",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.573538,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_rural_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.36,
      -0.18
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.27",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.268522,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "r_rural_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.56,
      -0.36
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.46",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.460965,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_rural_2020_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.76,
      -0.58
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.67",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.668092,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "r_rural_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.74,
      -0.56
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.65",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.652664,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rc_rucc_2016_w": {
    "display": "−0.51",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with the rural-urban continuum code (edition 2013)",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.508003,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rc_rucc_2020_w": {
    "display": "−0.52",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with the rural-urban continuum code (edition 2023)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.524609,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rc_rural_2016_w": {
    "display": "−0.65",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share of residents",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.650104,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rc_rural_2020_w": {
    "display": "−0.67",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share of residents",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.668092,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcm_12086_2024": {
    "display": "−11.5",
    "estimand": "county two-party margin, Democratic positive",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -11.5324,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "rcp_12086_2024": {
    "display": "+35.3",
    "estimand": "county margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 35.273,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_01117_2024": {
    "display": "−47.4",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -47.3969,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_06097_2024": {
    "display": "+48.2",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 48.2302,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_12086_2024": {
    "display": "−46.8",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -46.8053,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_13063_2024": {
    "display": "+52.2",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 52.171,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_13117_2024": {
    "display": "−52.9",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -52.8526,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_24033_2024": {
    "display": "+48.1",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 48.0545,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rcr_47187_2024": {
    "display": "−52.1",
    "estimand": "county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -52.15,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_band": {
    "display": "20",
    "estimand": "distance from the fitted margin used to flag a county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 20,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "res_big_2000": {
    "display": "35%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes in counties whose margin is more than 20 points from the five-axis fit",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of two-party votes",
    "value": 34.7307,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_big_2024": {
    "display": "25%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes in counties whose margin is more than 20 points from the five-axis fit",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of two-party votes",
    "value": 25.3979,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_cut": {
    "display": "100,000",
    "estimand": "vote cut for naming counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes",
    "value": 100000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "res_rest_2000": {
    "display": "+6.0",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties outside the Census South",
    "n": 1690,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 5.98059,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_rest_2024": {
    "display": "+6.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties outside the Census South",
    "n": 1681,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 6.70131,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_sd_2000": {
    "display": "20.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of the five-axis residual",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 20.406,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_sd_2024": {
    "display": "18.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of the five-axis residual",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 18.4146,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_south_2000": {
    "display": "−11.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties in the Census South",
    "n": 1423,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -11.5181,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_south_2024": {
    "display": "−10.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties in the Census South",
    "n": 1422,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -10.824,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_tx_2024": {
    "display": "−21.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression in TX counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": -21.7248,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "res_vt_2024": {
    "display": "+42.6",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression in VT counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 42.5732,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "rural_mean_p_2012": {
    "display": "19.4%",
    "estimand": "mean rural share of residents across counties, weighted by county population",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 19.3915,
    "weights": "county population"
  },
  "rural_mean_p_2020": {
    "display": "20.0%",
    "estimand": "mean rural share of residents across counties, weighted by county population",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 20.0373,
    "weights": "county population"
  },
  "rural_mean_u_2012": {
    "display": "59.6%",
    "estimand": "mean rural share of residents across counties, each county counted once",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 59.5783,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "rural_mean_u_2020": {
    "display": "64.0%",
    "estimand": "mean rural share of residents across counties, each county counted once",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 63.9937,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sde_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      8.2,
      14.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "10.9",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 10.8523,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sde_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      13.4,
      20.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "16.9",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 16.9441,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sde_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      21.3,
      27.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "24.3",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 24.2544,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sde_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      24.7,
      30.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "27.2",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 27.197,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdr_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      19.2,
      23.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "22.0",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 21.9709,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sdr_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      18,
      21.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "20.4",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 20.406,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdr_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      16.9,
      22.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "20.4",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 20.351,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sdr_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      15.5,
      19.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "18.4",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 18.4146,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdrf_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      11.7,
      14.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "13.5",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 13.4941,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdrf_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      10.4,
      12.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "12.0",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes and a baseline for each state",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 12.0119,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdt_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      22.3,
      26.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "24.5",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the county margin",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 24.505,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sdt_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      24,
      28.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "26.5",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the county margin",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 26.5237,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdt_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      33.3,
      37.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "35.9",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the county margin",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 35.8958,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdt_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      29.5,
      33.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "31.7",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the county margin",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 31.6613,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "sdt_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      30.6,
      35
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "32.8",
    "estimand": "weighted standard deviation of the county margin",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of margin",
    "value": 32.8447,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdx_edu_2024_w": {
    "display": "11.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of college share across counties",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of adults",
    "value": 11.8149,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sdx_race_2024_w": {
    "display": "21.1",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of non-Hispanic white share across counties",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of residents",
    "value": 21.1248,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_age_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0,
      2.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.1",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when median age is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 0.106996,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_edu_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      5.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "2.4",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when college share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 2.41442,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_edu_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      8.6,
      16.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "12.8",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when college share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 12.8341,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "uniq_edu_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      12.1,
      22.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "16.9",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when college share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 16.8971,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_inc_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.8,
      6.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "2.7",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when median household income is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 2.7388,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_race_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      6.9,
      23.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "15.1",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when non-Hispanic white share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 15.0531,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_race_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      8,
      31.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "17.6",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when non-Hispanic white share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 17.5996,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "uniq_race_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      5.1,
      17.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "11.0",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when non-Hispanic white share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 11.0299,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "uniq_rural_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0,
      2.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.7",
    "estimand": "drop in R-squared when rural share is removed from the five-axis regression",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 0.664433,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v00chg_2012_2016_w": {
    "display": "+19.3",
    "estimand": "change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 19.2934,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v00chg_2016_2024_w": {
    "display": "−4.5",
    "estimand": "change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": -4.4522,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v00r2_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      11,
      33
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "20%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 19.6126,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "v00r2_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      30,
      56
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "41%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 40.8102,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v00r2_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      65,
      80
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "72%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 72.0468,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v00r2_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      48,
      72
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "58%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 58.41,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "v00r2_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      61,
      77
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "68%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 67.5946,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v24chg_2012_2016_w": {
    "display": "+20.9",
    "estimand": "change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3104,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 20.855,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v24chg_2016_2024_w": {
    "display": "−2.0",
    "estimand": "change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": -1.97574,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v24r2_2000_u": {
    "ci": [
      11,
      29
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "18%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 17.75,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "v24r2_2000_w": {
    "ci": [
      27,
      48
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "35%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 35.137,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v24r2_2016_w": {
    "ci": [
      65,
      78
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "71%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3104,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 70.5421,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "v24r2_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      49,
      71
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "59%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 58.6844,
    "weights": "none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "v24r2_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      63,
      78
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "69%",
    "estimand": "R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of the county margin",
    "value": 68.5663,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "wd_age_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.03,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.09",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of median age with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": 0.0931742,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_age_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      -0.01
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.11",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of median age with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": -0.114871,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_edu_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.09,
      0.26
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.18",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of college share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": 0.182051,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_edu_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.02,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.11",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of college share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": 0.106783,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_inc_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.05,
      0.19
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.08",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of median household income with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": 0.0777174,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_inc_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -0.04,
      0.22
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.09",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of median household income with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": 0.0934771,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_race_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -0.17,
      0.04
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.08",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of non-Hispanic white share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": -0.0774816,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_rural_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.26,
      -0.12
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.19",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of rural share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": -0.192443,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  },
  "wd_rural_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      -0.05
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.13",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation of rural share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation",
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024 presidential election",
    "population": "counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference in correlation",
    "value": -0.125398,
    "weights": "two-party votes minus none (each county counts once)"
  }
}