{
  "alt": "A line chart of the Republican share of two-party white voters in three groups by racial resentment, from 1988 to 2024. The most resentful third rises to a very high share, the least resentful third falls to a very low share, and the middle third is level after 2004. The lines are closest in 1988 and farthest apart from 2016 on.",
  "caption": "The lines fan out after 2008: the line for the most resentful third rises, the line for the least resentful third falls, and the gap between them widens most from 2012 to 2016. Each point is the weighted Republican share of two-party voters in a group defined by rank on the index inside each election year, with ties split so that the groups are equal in size; the shaded years are the Obama presidency.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 53.2,
      "conf_low": 42.2,
      "estimate": 47.7,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 322,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.1,
      "conf_low": 27.6,
      "estimate": 32.3,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 385,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.6,
      "conf_low": 32.7,
      "estimate": 38.7,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 318,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43.2,
      "conf_low": 29,
      "estimate": 36.1,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 247,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.7,
      "conf_low": 22.9,
      "estimate": 28.8,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 302,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 30.6,
      "conf_low": 23.3,
      "estimate": 27,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 962,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.5,
      "conf_low": 13.7,
      "estimate": 17.1,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 672,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.3,
      "conf_low": 6,
      "estimate": 7.6,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1927,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.7,
      "conf_low": 6.6,
      "estimate": 9.1,
      "group": "Least resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1107,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 69.1,
      "conf_low": 58.6,
      "estimate": 63.8,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 400,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56.4,
      "conf_low": 46.5,
      "estimate": 51.4,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 505,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 62.2,
      "conf_low": 50.1,
      "estimate": 56.2,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 418,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 71.6,
      "conf_low": 57.8,
      "estimate": 64.7,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 227,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 67.6,
      "conf_low": 55,
      "estimate": 61.3,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 304,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 69.5,
      "conf_low": 61.9,
      "estimate": 65.7,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1126,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 70,
      "conf_low": 61.8,
      "estimate": 65.9,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 821,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 66.7,
      "conf_low": 60.3,
      "estimate": 63.5,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1668,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 63.9,
      "conf_low": 55,
      "estimate": 59.5,
      "group": "Middle third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1189,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 76.2,
      "conf_low": 66.3,
      "estimate": 71.2,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 426,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 64.4,
      "conf_low": 54.3,
      "estimate": 59.4,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 365,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 73.7,
      "conf_low": 62.4,
      "estimate": 68.1,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 331,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 80.7,
      "conf_low": 67.8,
      "estimate": 74.3,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 245,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 84.9,
      "conf_low": 73.9,
      "estimate": 79.4,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 323,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 82.1,
      "conf_low": 75.3,
      "estimate": 78.7,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 849,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 91.9,
      "conf_low": 86.3,
      "estimate": 89.1,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 702,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 92,
      "conf_low": 88,
      "estimate": 90,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1475,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 91.1,
      "conf_low": 85.4,
      "estimate": 88.2,
      "group": "Most resentful third",
      "grouping": "exact",
      "n": 1028,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.3,
      "conf_low": 42.4,
      "estimate": 47.8,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 322,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.5,
      "conf_low": 29,
      "estimate": 33.7,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 385,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.7,
      "conf_low": 32.7,
      "estimate": 38.7,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 318,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43.1,
      "conf_low": 28.8,
      "estimate": 36,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 206,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 31.2,
      "conf_low": 18.7,
      "estimate": 24.9,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 228,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27,
      "conf_low": 19.4,
      "estimate": 23.2,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 780,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.6,
      "conf_low": 21.6,
      "estimate": 25.1,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 838,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.9,
      "conf_low": 21.4,
      "estimate": 23.7,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 2530,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.6,
      "conf_low": 22.3,
      "estimate": 25.5,
      "group": "Index of 50 or less",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 1561,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 69.5,
      "conf_low": 60.2,
      "estimate": 64.9,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 407,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56,
      "conf_low": 46.3,
      "estimate": 51.2,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 411,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 63,
      "conf_low": 51,
      "estimate": 57,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 316,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 72,
      "conf_low": 58.4,
      "estimate": 65.2,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 227,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 67.2,
      "conf_low": 54.8,
      "estimate": 61,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 304,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 69.1,
      "conf_low": 61.3,
      "estimate": 65.2,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 912,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 76.9,
      "conf_low": 68.1,
      "estimate": 72.5,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 555,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 82.4,
      "conf_low": 76.2,
      "estimate": 79.3,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 1126,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 80,
      "conf_low": 71.1,
      "estimate": 75.5,
      "group": "Index above 50 to 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 782,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 78.5,
      "conf_low": 66.8,
      "estimate": 72.6,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 223,
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 68.9,
      "conf_low": 57,
      "estimate": 63,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 256,
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 75,
      "conf_low": 62.6,
      "estimate": 68.8,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 253,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 82.1,
      "conf_low": 67.7,
      "estimate": 74.9,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 168,
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 85.1,
      "conf_low": 74,
      "estimate": 79.5,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 250,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 81.8,
      "conf_low": 74.9,
      "estimate": 78.3,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 849,
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 93,
      "conf_low": 86.9,
      "estimate": 90,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 549,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 94.5,
      "conf_low": 90.1,
      "estimate": 92.3,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 918,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 93.8,
      "conf_low": 87.2,
      "estimate": 90.5,
      "group": "Index above 75",
      "grouping": "fixed",
      "n": 625,
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_levels",
  "notes": [
    "The resentment index was not asked in 1996, so no group is drawn for that year. In the default view the groups are exact weighted thirds inside each year, with respondents who share an index score split in proportion across the cut. In the fixed-cut view the cuts are at the same index scores in every year (50 and 75, the pooled terciles of white two-party voters), so the groups change in size from year to year. All interview modes are pooled; the mode comparison is in the previous figure. Intervals assume a simple random sample of the weighted respondents (the Kish effective sample size); they do not use the survey's sampling design."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1964-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; mode weights VCF0009x and VCF0009y for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 50
      }
    ],
    "breaks": [
      1996
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Index above 50 to 75": "muted",
      "Index above 75": "cat2",
      "Index of 50 or less": "cat1",
      "Least resentful third": "cat1",
      "Middle third": "muted",
      "Most resentful third": "cat2"
    },
    "eras": [
      {
        "label": "Obama presidency",
        "x1": 2009,
        "x2": 2017
      }
    ],
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "group",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1986,
      2026
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      0,
      100
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "suffix": "%"
    },
    "yLabel": "Republican share of the two-party vote (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Republican share of the two-party presidential vote among white non-Hispanic voters in the lowest, middle and highest group of the racial resentment index (thirds inside each election year, or fixed index cuts), percent, ANES 1988 to 2024, 95% intervals",
  "title": "The Republican share among the most resentful third of white voters rose from {fact:lv_high_2008} in 2008 to {fact:lv_high_2016} in 2016, and fell among the least resentful third from {fact:lv_low_2008} to {fact:lv_low_2016}",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "grouping": "exact"
      },
      "id": "exact",
      "label": "Thirds inside each year"
    },
    {
      "caption": "With cuts at the same index scores in every year the groups change in size, and the gap rises most from 2004 to 2008 and rises again from 2012 to 2016 while the 2008 to 2012 change is within sampling error. Each point is the weighted Republican share of two-party voters in one group; the shaded years are the Obama presidency.",
      "filter": {
        "grouping": "fixed"
      },
      "id": "fixed",
      "label": "Fixed index cuts",
      "title": "With fixed index cuts the gap between the highest and lowest group changed by {fact:fxgapch_0408} points from 2004 to 2008 and {fact:fxgapch_1216} from 2012 to 2016"
    }
  ]
}