{
  "alt": "A line chart from 1988 to 2024 of the association between four racial attitudes and the Republican presidential vote among white voters, with two points for a CES affirmative action measure in 2008 and 2012. The racial resentment line rises from the low teens to the mid-30s, with the largest step between 2012 and 2016 and almost no step between 2008 and 2012. The other attitudes follow a similar rise, and the CES points for 2008 and 2012 are level.",
  "caption": "The resentment line climbs in steps and the 2008 to 2012 step is within sampling error, in person and in the CES, while 2012 to 2016 is the largest. Each point is a weighted linear probability slope on the standardized attitude with a 95% interval; a positive slope means the more racially conservative attitude goes with a more Republican vote. The shaded years are the Obama presidency; the vote is for the election that ended each year.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 13.2,
      "conf_low": 6.8,
      "estimate": 10,
      "n": 867,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.1,
      "conf_low": 9.2,
      "estimate": 12.2,
      "n": 984,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.7,
      "conf_low": 12.1,
      "estimate": 15.4,
      "n": 778,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.6,
      "conf_low": 2.3,
      "estimate": 7.5,
      "n": 443,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.8,
      "conf_low": 15.1,
      "estimate": 19,
      "n": 547,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.5,
      "conf_low": 15.5,
      "estimate": 19,
      "n": 688,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.2,
      "conf_low": 20.3,
      "estimate": 22.3,
      "n": 2345,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 30.6,
      "conf_low": 26.8,
      "estimate": 28.7,
      "n": 1797,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.9,
      "conf_low": 31.7,
      "estimate": 32.8,
      "n": 4291,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.6,
      "conf_low": 28.9,
      "estimate": 30.7,
      "n": 2710,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.6,
      "conf_low": 1.3,
      "estimate": 4.5,
      "n": 922,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.4,
      "conf_low": -0.8,
      "estimate": 2.3,
      "n": 1032,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.3,
      "conf_low": 0.8,
      "estimate": 4.5,
      "n": 808,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.2,
      "conf_low": 0,
      "estimate": 3.6,
      "n": 827,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.5,
      "conf_low": -3.3,
      "estimate": 1.1,
      "n": 588,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.4,
      "conf_low": 2.8,
      "estimate": 6.6,
      "n": 767,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.9,
      "conf_low": 5.2,
      "estimate": 7.6,
      "n": 2526,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.8,
      "conf_low": 8.9,
      "estimate": 11.3,
      "n": 1919,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.5,
      "conf_low": 9.9,
      "estimate": 11.7,
      "n": 4412,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.5,
      "conf_low": 5.4,
      "estimate": 7.9,
      "n": 2827,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.2,
      "conf_low": 4.3,
      "estimate": 7.2,
      "n": 1025,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.5,
      "conf_low": 4.4,
      "estimate": 8.4,
      "n": 778,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12,
      "conf_low": 4.8,
      "estimate": 8.4,
      "n": 822,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.8,
      "conf_low": 10.2,
      "estimate": 14,
      "n": 573,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.6,
      "conf_low": 9.5,
      "estimate": 13.1,
      "n": 738,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.1,
      "conf_low": 11.9,
      "estimate": 14.5,
      "n": 2489,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.1,
      "conf_low": 16.4,
      "estimate": 18.7,
      "n": 1911,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.7,
      "conf_low": 22.3,
      "estimate": 24,
      "n": 4504,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.4,
      "conf_low": 22.4,
      "estimate": 24.4,
      "n": 2921,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.2,
      "conf_low": 24.8,
      "estimate": 25.5,
      "n": 19797,
      "other": true,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (CES)",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.6,
      "conf_low": 24.2,
      "estimate": 24.9,
      "n": 30271,
      "other": true,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (CES)",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.1,
      "conf_low": 7.1,
      "estimate": 10.1,
      "n": 952,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.3,
      "conf_low": 11.2,
      "estimate": 13.8,
      "n": 1052,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.3,
      "conf_low": 9.5,
      "estimate": 12.9,
      "n": 887,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.5,
      "conf_low": 14.1,
      "estimate": 17.8,
      "n": 601,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25,
      "conf_low": 19.2,
      "estimate": 22.1,
      "n": 782,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25,
      "conf_low": 21.3,
      "estimate": 23.2,
      "n": 2541,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.8,
      "conf_low": 29.9,
      "estimate": 31.3,
      "n": 1942,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 35.7,
      "conf_low": 34,
      "estimate": 34.9,
      "n": 4574,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.4,
      "conf_low": 31.6,
      "estimate": 33,
      "n": 2968,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "all_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.5,
      "conf_low": 15.5,
      "estimate": 19,
      "n": 688,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.6,
      "conf_low": 17,
      "estimate": 20.8,
      "n": 539,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.2,
      "conf_low": 24.2,
      "estimate": 28.2,
      "n": 483,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.1,
      "conf_low": 27.9,
      "estimate": 32.5,
      "n": 447,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Black people should help themselves (aid item)",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.4,
      "conf_low": 2.8,
      "estimate": 6.6,
      "n": 767,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.3,
      "conf_low": 3,
      "estimate": 7.1,
      "n": 602,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.2,
      "conf_low": 8.8,
      "estimate": 14,
      "n": 511,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.9,
      "conf_low": 6.6,
      "estimate": 11.8,
      "n": 488,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Colder rating of Black Americans",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.6,
      "conf_low": 9.5,
      "estimate": 13.1,
      "n": 738,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.4,
      "conf_low": 5.9,
      "estimate": 10.7,
      "n": 566,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.9,
      "conf_low": 14.2,
      "estimate": 19.1,
      "n": 506,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.4,
      "conf_low": 24.8,
      "estimate": 28.6,
      "n": 476,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.2,
      "conf_low": 24.8,
      "estimate": 25.5,
      "n": 19797,
      "other": true,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (CES)",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.6,
      "conf_low": 24.2,
      "estimate": 24.9,
      "n": 30271,
      "other": true,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Opposes affirmative action (CES)",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25,
      "conf_low": 19.2,
      "estimate": 22.1,
      "n": 782,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.6,
      "conf_low": 18.1,
      "estimate": 21.8,
      "n": 609,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.5,
      "conf_low": 27.5,
      "estimate": 30.5,
      "n": 523,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.5,
      "conf_low": 31.9,
      "estimate": 34.7,
      "n": 495,
      "other": false,
      "panel": "ftf_free",
      "series": "Racial resentment index",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_assoc",
  "notes": [
    "Attitudes are oriented so that a high value is the more racially conservative pole: higher resentment, a colder rating of Black Americans, placing Black people's aid on the self-help end, and opposing affirmative action. Each attitude is standardized within the estimation sample, so a slope is per standard deviation of that sample. Party identification is not held fixed in this figure.",
    "The resentment items were not asked in 1996, so that line joins 1992 and 2000; the affirmative action item was not asked in 1988. ANES 2020 has no mode weights, so it is missing from the face-to-face view, and the CES is an online opt-in panel in both years, so its intervals are model based. Intervals are HC3."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1964-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; mode weights VCF0009x and VCF0009y for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024); Cooperative Election Study, 2008 and 2012; weighted (single-wave weight)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "bandSeries": [
      "Racial resentment index"
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Black people should help themselves (aid item)": "cat2",
      "Colder rating of Black Americans": "cat3",
      "Opposes affirmative action (ANES)": "cat4",
      "Opposes affirmative action (CES)": "highlight",
      "Racial resentment index": "cat1"
    },
    "eras": [
      {
        "label": "Obama presidency",
        "x1": 2009,
        "x2": 2017
      }
    ],
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "hollow": "other",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1986,
      2026
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -5,
      40
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Points of Republican vote per standard deviation of the attitude"
  },
  "subtitle": "Percentage points of the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote per standard deviation of each racial attitude, white non-Hispanic voters, ANES 1988 to 2024 and CES 2008 and 2012",
  "title": "Among white voters the tie between racial resentment and the Republican vote rose from 1988 to 2004 and from 2012 to 2016, with no rise distinguishable from zero from 2008 to 2012",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "all_free"
      },
      "id": "all_free",
      "label": "All interviews"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "ftf_free"
      },
      "id": "ftf_free",
      "label": "Face to face only",
      "title": "In face-to-face interviews alone the resentment slope shows no change distinguishable from zero from 2008 to 2012 and rose by 2016"
    }
  ]
}