{
  "alt": "Three stacked plots of dots with intervals, one per 2024 sample, each showing the change in the other-party rating from 2020 to 2024 for all partisans, Democrats and Republicans around a line at zero; a second view adds the subgroups by strength of attachment and interest in the campaign. For all partisans the change is {fact:thaw_all_all} across all 2024 interviews, {fact:thaw_web_all} among 2024 web respondents and {fact:thaw_ftf_all} among 2024 face-to-face respondents. Across the subgroups the interval excludes zero for {fact:n_excl_all} of {fact:n_sub_all} in all interviews, {fact:n_excl_web} of {fact:n_sub_web} among web respondents and {fact:n_excl_ftf} of {fact:n_sub_ftf} among face-to-face respondents.",
  "caption": "The 2024 web sample is the closest match to the online, video and telephone interviews of 2020: the point estimates for all partisans, Democrats and Republicans are below zero there, and only the interval for Democrats excludes zero. Among 2024 face-to-face respondents every interval lies above zero, but 2020 had no face-to-face interviews, and the 2020 comparison is always the all-interview mean. Each dot is the 2024 mean minus the 2020 mean with a confidence interval.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 2.44677,
      "conf_low": 0.327549,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": 1.38716,
      "kind_of_group": "All partisans",
      "level_2020": 19.2427,
      "level_2024": 20.6299,
      "n": 5080,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "All partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.97086,
      "conf_low": -0.968442,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": 0.501208,
      "kind_of_group": "Party",
      "level_2020": 20.5786,
      "level_2024": 21.0798,
      "n": 2631,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.89893,
      "conf_low": 0.847031,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": 2.37298,
      "kind_of_group": "Party",
      "level_2020": 17.773,
      "level_2024": 20.146,
      "n": 2449,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.20362,
      "conf_low": -1.29946,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -0.0479212,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 13.0823,
      "level_2024": 13.0344,
      "n": 2472,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Strong partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.92185,
      "conf_low": -2.55888,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -0.318518,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 28.1563,
      "level_2024": 27.8378,
      "n": 1190,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Weak partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.02705,
      "conf_low": 1.77655,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 3.9018,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 22.7023,
      "level_2024": 26.6041,
      "n": 1418,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.0431,
      "conf_low": -0.584055,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 0.729523,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 14.9176,
      "level_2024": 15.6472,
      "n": 2550,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Very interested in the campaign"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.32509,
      "conf_low": -0.371122,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 1.47698,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 23.6681,
      "level_2024": 25.1451,
      "n": 1768,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Somewhat interested"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.76344,
      "conf_low": -1.13722,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 2.31311,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 24.5486,
      "level_2024": 26.8617,
      "n": 547,
      "sample": "2024 all interviews",
      "subgroup": "Not much interested"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.113231,
      "conf_low": -2.68154,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": -1.28415,
      "kind_of_group": "All partisans",
      "level_2020": 19.2427,
      "level_2024": 17.9586,
      "n": 1850,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "All partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.362645,
      "conf_low": -4.14469,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": -2.25367,
      "kind_of_group": "Party",
      "level_2020": 20.5786,
      "level_2024": 18.325,
      "n": 966,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.84598,
      "conf_low": -2.28314,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": -0.21858,
      "kind_of_group": "Party",
      "level_2020": 17.773,
      "level_2024": 17.5545,
      "n": 884,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0703974,
      "conf_low": -3.2483,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -1.58895,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 13.0823,
      "level_2024": 11.4934,
      "n": 900,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Strong partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.964084,
      "conf_low": -4.98895,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -2.01243,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 28.1563,
      "level_2024": 26.1439,
      "n": 454,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Weak partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.30668,
      "conf_low": -2.32966,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 0.48851,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 22.7023,
      "level_2024": 23.1909,
      "n": 496,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.30046,
      "conf_low": -3.27634,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -1.48794,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 14.9176,
      "level_2024": 13.4297,
      "n": 886,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Very interested in the campaign"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.389882,
      "conf_low": -4.31734,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -1.96373,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 23.6681,
      "level_2024": 21.7044,
      "n": 734,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Somewhat interested"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.13004,
      "conf_low": -6.32796,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": -2.09896,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 24.5486,
      "level_2024": 22.4496,
      "n": 230,
      "sample": "2024 web respondents only",
      "subgroup": "Not much interested"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.22404,
      "conf_low": 4.32119,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": 6.27261,
      "kind_of_group": "All partisans",
      "level_2020": 19.2427,
      "level_2024": 25.5154,
      "n": 960,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "All partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.63021,
      "conf_low": 3.11767,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": 5.87394,
      "kind_of_group": "Party",
      "level_2020": 20.5786,
      "level_2024": 26.4526,
      "n": 522,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Democrats"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.44379,
      "conf_low": 3.93656,
      "core": true,
      "estimate": 6.69018,
      "kind_of_group": "Party",
      "level_2020": 17.773,
      "level_2024": 24.4632,
      "n": 438,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Republicans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.58108,
      "conf_low": 0.765755,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 3.17342,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 13.0823,
      "level_2024": 16.2558,
      "n": 407,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Strong partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.14226,
      "conf_low": 1.23162,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 5.18694,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 28.1563,
      "level_2024": 33.3433,
      "n": 223,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Weak partisans"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.8273,
      "conf_low": 3.88825,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 7.35777,
      "kind_of_group": "Strength of attachment",
      "level_2020": 22.7023,
      "level_2024": 30.0601,
      "n": 330,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Leaners"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.65257,
      "conf_low": 1.92453,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 4.28855,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 14.9176,
      "level_2024": 19.2062,
      "n": 492,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Very interested in the campaign"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.58989,
      "conf_low": 2.91771,
      "core": false,
      "estimate": 6.2538,
      "kind_of_group": "Interest in the campaign",
      "level_2020": 23.6681,
      "level_2024": 29.9219,
      "n": 333,
      "sample": "2024 face-to-face respondents only (2020 had no face-to-face interviews)",
      "subgroup": "Somewhat interested"
    }
  ],
  "id": "group_change",
  "notes": [
    "n is the smaller of the 2020 and 2024 cell sizes. Subgroups with fewer than {fact:floor_cell} respondents or an effective sample below that in either year are not shown.",
    "The intervals treat the 2020 and 2024 samples as independent. The all-interview 2024 sample includes respondents who were also interviewed in 2020, so its intervals are wider than needed; the web and face-to-face comparisons use fresh 2024 samples."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 2020 and 2024; partisans including leaners; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_web and weight_ftf for the 2024 mode samples)",
  "spec": {
    "facet": "sample",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -8,
      12
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Change in the mean rating, 2020 to 2024 (points)",
    "y": "subgroup"
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the mean thermometer rating of the other party from the 2020 all-interview mean to the 2024 mean, points, partisans including leaners, by 2024 sample",
  "title": "Compared with 2020, the other-party rating differs by {fact:thaw_web_all} points among 2024 web respondents and {fact:thaw_ftf_all} among 2024 face-to-face respondents",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "core": true
      },
      "id": "core",
      "label": "All partisans and party"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The same comparison for subgroups by party, strength of attachment and interest in the campaign. Across all 2024 interviews {fact:n_excl_all} of {fact:n_sub_all} changes have an interval that excludes zero, among web respondents {fact:n_excl_web} of {fact:n_sub_web} do (Democrats, below zero), and among face-to-face respondents {fact:n_excl_ftf} of {fact:n_sub_ftf} do.",
      "id": "all",
      "label": "All subgroups"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}