{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with four rows and two dots per row, county and ZIP code area correlations with the 2016 to 2020 swing. Hispanic share is {fact:r_hispanic_1620_w} in counties and {fact:z_hispanic} in ZIP code areas, foreign-born share {fact:r_foreign_1620_w} and {fact:z_foreign}, Black share {fact:r_black_1620_w} and {fact:z_black}, and college share {fact:r_college_1620_w} and {fact:z_college}.",
  "caption": "Dots that sit close together mean the county correlation is reproduced at the finer grain, as for Hispanic and foreign-born share; the college dots differ in level and in measure, because counties use the bachelor's degree share and ZIP code areas use the atlas's college-education share.",
  "data": [
    {
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "county": 0.245831,
      "county_high": 0.407697,
      "county_low": 0.106679,
      "n_county": 3113,
      "n_zip": 29323,
      "zip_area": 0.46885,
      "zip_high": 0.552693,
      "zip_low": 0.417078
    },
    {
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "county": -0.4765,
      "county_high": -0.199125,
      "county_low": -0.62103,
      "n_county": 3113,
      "n_zip": 29323,
      "zip_area": -0.498829,
      "zip_high": -0.2932,
      "zip_low": -0.595417
    },
    {
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "county": -0.500309,
      "county_high": -0.104306,
      "county_low": -0.668835,
      "n_county": 3113,
      "n_zip": 29323,
      "zip_area": -0.462225,
      "zip_high": -0.144178,
      "zip_low": -0.605307
    },
    {
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "county": -0.126159,
      "county_high": -0.00153312,
      "county_low": -0.290126,
      "n_county": 3113,
      "n_zip": 29323,
      "zip_area": -0.182248,
      "zip_high": -0.106461,
      "zip_low": -0.286283
    }
  ],
  "id": "zip_code_check",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods.",
    "ZIP code area votes are estimates allocated from precinct returns, so they carry allocation error. There is no ZIP code area release for 2024, so the 2020 to 2024 pair cannot be checked below the county. The {fact:zcta_n_dropped} areas for which the atlas codes one of the four characteristics as missing, with a negative value, are dropped."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the later election or county-equal, as stated; ZIP code areas from precinct votes allocated to census geographies (Fekrazad 2025), 2016 and 2020, weighted by 2020 presidential votes",
  "spec": {
    "hi1": "county_high",
    "hi2": "zip_high",
    "label1": "Counties",
    "label2": "ZIP code areas",
    "lo1": "county_low",
    "lo2": "zip_low",
    "n1": "n_county",
    "n2": "n_zip",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "county",
    "x2": "zip_area",
    "xDomain": [
      -1,
      1
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Correlation with the swing, 2016 to 2020, vote-weighted",
    "y": "characteristic"
  },
  "subtitle": "Vote-weighted correlation of four characteristics with the swing in the Democratic minus Republican margin between 2016 and 2020, at county and ZIP code area grain",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "characteristic",
        "label": "Characteristic"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "county",
        "label": "County"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "county_low",
        "label": "County, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "county_high",
        "label": "County, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_county",
        "label": "Counties"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "zip_area",
        "label": "ZIP code area"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "zip_low",
        "label": "ZIP, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "zip_high",
        "label": "ZIP, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_zip",
        "label": "ZIP code areas"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "ZIP code areas give Hispanic and foreign-born correlations similar to counties for 2016 to 2020, and a larger college correlation with a different college measure",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "width": "wide"
}