{
  "alt": "County map of the United States colored by each county's swing relative to the national swing, with a slider over three pairs of elections. In 2020 to 2024, {fact:map_within_2024} of counties fall in the palest class, within {fact:band} points of the national swing, against {fact:map_within_1216} in 2012 to 2016. The reddest counties with {fact:ext_min_votes} or more votes in 2020 to 2024 lie along the Rio Grande, in the Imperial Valley, in the New York City area and in Miami-Dade, and each has a Hispanic share of {fact:ext_low_hisp_min_2024} or more. The data table lists the ten counties at each end for each pair, with their swings and characteristics.",
  "caption": "Red counties moved further toward the Republicans than the nation did (the national swing was {fact:nat_swing_2024} points in 2020 to 2024) and blue counties less far, so blue does not mean a move toward the Democrats. The average county's swing minus the national swing is {fact:t_all_u} points, counting each county once, and {fact:map_within_2024} of counties fall in the palest class, within {fact:band} points of the national swing, against {fact:map_within_1216} in 2012 to 2016. Among counties with {fact:ext_min_votes} or more votes, the reddest in 2020 to 2024 lie along the Rio Grande, in the Imperial Valley, in the New York City area and in Miami-Dade.",
  "data": [
    {
      "college_share": 14.6,
      "county": "Schuylkill, PA",
      "fips": "42107",
      "foreign_born_share": 1.8,
      "hispanic_share": 3.2,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -29.3,
      "swing": -31.2,
      "votes": 60771
    },
    {
      "college_share": 17.2,
      "county": "Trumbull, OH",
      "fips": "39155",
      "foreign_born_share": 1.5,
      "hispanic_share": 1.5,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -28,
      "swing": -29.9,
      "votes": 92038
    },
    {
      "college_share": 16.6,
      "county": "St. Clair, MI",
      "fips": "26147",
      "foreign_born_share": 2.7,
      "hispanic_share": 3,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -24.1,
      "swing": -26.1,
      "votes": 73604
    },
    {
      "college_share": 21.9,
      "county": "Mahoning, OH",
      "fips": "39099",
      "foreign_born_share": 3,
      "hispanic_share": 5,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -23.4,
      "swing": -25.4,
      "votes": 110997
    },
    {
      "college_share": 21.3,
      "county": "Luzerne, PA",
      "fips": "42079",
      "foreign_born_share": 5.2,
      "hispanic_share": 8.1,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -23,
      "swing": -25,
      "votes": 130395
    },
    {
      "college_share": 18.2,
      "county": "Monroe, MI",
      "fips": "26115",
      "foreign_born_share": 2.1,
      "hispanic_share": 3.2,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -22.4,
      "swing": -24.4,
      "votes": 70124
    },
    {
      "college_share": 17.7,
      "county": "Jefferson, MO",
      "fips": "29099",
      "foreign_born_share": 1.7,
      "hispanic_share": 1.7,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -22.3,
      "swing": -24.2,
      "votes": 100519
    },
    {
      "college_share": 25.6,
      "county": "Lackawanna, PA",
      "fips": "42069",
      "foreign_born_share": 4.9,
      "hispanic_share": 5.6,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -22.1,
      "swing": -24,
      "votes": 100367
    },
    {
      "college_share": 19.6,
      "county": "Androscoggin, ME",
      "fips": "23001",
      "foreign_born_share": 3,
      "hispanic_share": 1.7,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -21.4,
      "swing": -23.3,
      "votes": 51164
    },
    {
      "college_share": 14.4,
      "county": "Fayette, PA",
      "fips": "42051",
      "foreign_born_share": 0.9,
      "hispanic_share": 0.9,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -21.3,
      "swing": -23.2,
      "votes": 52536
    },
    {
      "college_share": 31.8,
      "county": "Salt Lake, UT",
      "fips": "49035",
      "foreign_born_share": 12.3,
      "hispanic_share": 17.4,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 35,
      "swing": 33,
      "votes": 313906
    },
    {
      "college_share": 34.7,
      "county": "Davis, UT",
      "fips": "49011",
      "foreign_born_share": 4.8,
      "hispanic_share": 8.7,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 28.3,
      "swing": 26.4,
      "votes": 90995
    },
    {
      "college_share": 36.9,
      "county": "Utah, UT",
      "fips": "49049",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.1,
      "hispanic_share": 10.9,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 25.7,
      "swing": 23.8,
      "votes": 130704
    },
    {
      "college_share": 72.5,
      "county": "Arlington, VA",
      "fips": "51013",
      "foreign_born_share": 23,
      "hispanic_share": 15.2,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 25.5,
      "swing": 23.6,
      "votes": 112202
    },
    {
      "college_share": 22.7,
      "county": "Weber, UT",
      "fips": "49057",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.3,
      "hispanic_share": 17.2,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 21.4,
      "swing": 19.4,
      "votes": 63366
    },
    {
      "college_share": 61.3,
      "county": "Alexandria, VA",
      "fips": "51510",
      "foreign_born_share": 26.4,
      "hispanic_share": 16.4,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 20.2,
      "swing": 18.2,
      "votes": 70527
    },
    {
      "college_share": 59.2,
      "county": "Fairfax, VA",
      "fips": "51059",
      "foreign_born_share": 29.8,
      "hispanic_share": 15.8,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 19.6,
      "swing": 17.7,
      "votes": 512843
    },
    {
      "college_share": 45.3,
      "county": "Travis, TX",
      "fips": "48453",
      "foreign_born_share": 17.7,
      "hispanic_share": 33.6,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 18.7,
      "swing": 16.7,
      "votes": 435469
    },
    {
      "college_share": 37.5,
      "county": "Orange, CA",
      "fips": "06059",
      "foreign_born_share": 30.4,
      "hispanic_share": 33.9,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 17.5,
      "swing": 15.5,
      "votes": 1106504
    },
    {
      "college_share": 34.7,
      "county": "Gwinnett, GA",
      "fips": "13135",
      "foreign_born_share": 25.1,
      "hispanic_share": 20.3,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 17.4,
      "swing": 15.5,
      "votes": 313142
    },
    {
      "college_share": 18.1,
      "county": "Webb, TX",
      "fips": "48479",
      "foreign_born_share": 26,
      "hispanic_share": 95.5,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -32.2,
      "swing": -29.6,
      "votes": 67718
    },
    {
      "college_share": 18.4,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "fips": "48215",
      "foreign_born_share": 27.1,
      "hispanic_share": 91.9,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -27.2,
      "swing": -24.7,
      "votes": 218726
    },
    {
      "college_share": 29,
      "county": "Miami-Dade, FL",
      "fips": "12086",
      "foreign_born_share": 53.1,
      "hispanic_share": 67.3,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -25.4,
      "swing": -22.9,
      "votes": 1150697
    },
    {
      "college_share": 17.5,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "fips": "48061",
      "foreign_born_share": 23.3,
      "hispanic_share": 89.4,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -22.9,
      "swing": -20.4,
      "votes": 113095
    },
    {
      "college_share": 14.7,
      "county": "Imperial, CA",
      "fips": "06025",
      "foreign_born_share": 31,
      "hispanic_share": 83.7,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -21.8,
      "swing": -19.2,
      "votes": 55525
    },
    {
      "college_share": 19.7,
      "county": "Bronx, NY",
      "fips": "36005",
      "foreign_born_share": 34.8,
      "hispanic_share": 55.7,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -15,
      "swing": -12.5,
      "votes": 423114
    },
    {
      "college_share": 20.9,
      "county": "Osceola, FL",
      "fips": "12097",
      "foreign_born_share": 20,
      "hispanic_share": 52.5,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -14.5,
      "swing": -12,
      "votes": 170777
    },
    {
      "college_share": 22.9,
      "county": "El Paso, TX",
      "fips": "48141",
      "foreign_born_share": 24.6,
      "hispanic_share": 82.2,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -12.2,
      "swing": -9.7,
      "votes": 262457
    },
    {
      "college_share": 32,
      "county": "Queens, NY",
      "fips": "36081",
      "foreign_born_share": 47.2,
      "hispanic_share": 27.9,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -11.7,
      "swing": -9.1,
      "votes": 781703
    },
    {
      "college_share": 36.5,
      "county": "Kings, NY",
      "fips": "36047",
      "foreign_born_share": 36.4,
      "hispanic_share": 19.1,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -10.6,
      "swing": -8.1,
      "votes": 906082
    },
    {
      "college_share": 27.8,
      "county": "Henry, GA",
      "fips": "13151",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.4,
      "hispanic_share": 6.7,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 13.6,
      "swing": 16.2,
      "votes": 121702
    },
    {
      "college_share": 51.6,
      "county": "Forsyth, GA",
      "fips": "13117",
      "foreign_born_share": 16.5,
      "hispanic_share": 9.4,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 13.5,
      "swing": 16,
      "votes": 127331
    },
    {
      "college_share": 27.1,
      "county": "Douglas, GA",
      "fips": "13097",
      "foreign_born_share": 8.7,
      "hispanic_share": 9.4,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 11.8,
      "swing": 14.3,
      "votes": 68268
    },
    {
      "college_share": 19.8,
      "county": "Kaufman, TX",
      "fips": "48257",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.7,
      "hispanic_share": 20.8,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 11.6,
      "swing": 14.1,
      "votes": 56029
    },
    {
      "college_share": 57.8,
      "county": "Hamilton, IN",
      "fips": "18057",
      "foreign_born_share": 8.1,
      "hispanic_share": 3.9,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 11.3,
      "swing": 13.9,
      "votes": 189977
    },
    {
      "college_share": 37.6,
      "county": "El Paso, CO",
      "fips": "08041",
      "foreign_born_share": 7,
      "hispanic_share": 16.8,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 11,
      "swing": 13.6,
      "votes": 364769
    },
    {
      "college_share": 46.3,
      "county": "Fayette, GA",
      "fips": "13113",
      "foreign_born_share": 9.7,
      "hispanic_share": 7.2,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.7,
      "swing": 13.3,
      "votes": 71018
    },
    {
      "college_share": 51.7,
      "county": "Collin, TX",
      "fips": "48085",
      "foreign_born_share": 20.2,
      "hispanic_share": 15.2,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.7,
      "swing": 13.3,
      "votes": 483263
    },
    {
      "college_share": 24.3,
      "county": "Paulding, GA",
      "fips": "13223",
      "foreign_born_share": 5.8,
      "hispanic_share": 6.1,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.5,
      "swing": 13,
      "votes": 84212
    },
    {
      "college_share": 39.3,
      "county": "Stafford, VA",
      "fips": "51179",
      "foreign_born_share": 9.8,
      "hispanic_share": 12.3,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.5,
      "swing": 13,
      "votes": 77881
    },
    {
      "college_share": 15.7,
      "county": "Imperial, CA",
      "fips": "06025",
      "foreign_born_share": 30.9,
      "hispanic_share": 85.3,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -19.7,
      "swing": -25.8,
      "votes": 52629
    },
    {
      "college_share": 20.1,
      "county": "Webb, TX",
      "fips": "48479",
      "foreign_born_share": 25.4,
      "hispanic_share": 95.3,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -19.6,
      "swing": -25.7,
      "votes": 65336
    },
    {
      "college_share": 21.3,
      "county": "Bronx, NY",
      "fips": "36005",
      "foreign_born_share": 34.6,
      "hispanic_share": 55.6,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -16.4,
      "swing": -22.5,
      "votes": 359844
    },
    {
      "college_share": 34.8,
      "county": "Queens, NY",
      "fips": "36081",
      "foreign_born_share": 47.2,
      "hispanic_share": 28,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -14.9,
      "swing": -21,
      "votes": 701910
    },
    {
      "college_share": 25,
      "county": "El Paso, TX",
      "fips": "48141",
      "foreign_born_share": 23.5,
      "hispanic_share": 82.7,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -14.3,
      "swing": -20.4,
      "votes": 248280
    },
    {
      "college_share": 20,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "fips": "48215",
      "foreign_born_share": 26.2,
      "hispanic_share": 92.1,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -14,
      "swing": -20.1,
      "votes": 215277
    },
    {
      "college_share": 30.2,
      "county": "Passaic, NJ",
      "fips": "34031",
      "foreign_born_share": 32.6,
      "hispanic_share": 43.1,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -13.6,
      "swing": -19.7,
      "votes": 196110
    },
    {
      "college_share": 20.1,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "fips": "48061",
      "foreign_born_share": 22.9,
      "hispanic_share": 89.6,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -13,
      "swing": -19.1,
      "votes": 115249
    },
    {
      "college_share": 32.5,
      "county": "Miami-Dade, FL",
      "fips": "12086",
      "foreign_born_share": 54.3,
      "hispanic_share": 68.7,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -12.8,
      "swing": -18.9,
      "votes": 1085945
    },
    {
      "college_share": 46.4,
      "county": "Hudson, NJ",
      "fips": "34017",
      "foreign_born_share": 43.2,
      "hispanic_share": 41.7,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest below the national swing",
      "relative_swing": -11.9,
      "swing": -18,
      "votes": 224678
    },
    {
      "college_share": 28.8,
      "county": "Henry, GA",
      "fips": "13151",
      "foreign_born_share": 8.3,
      "hispanic_share": 7.7,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 15.2,
      "swing": 9.2,
      "votes": 128235
    },
    {
      "college_share": 29.5,
      "county": "Douglas, GA",
      "fips": "13097",
      "foreign_born_share": 9.3,
      "hispanic_share": 11.1,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 12.3,
      "swing": 6.2,
      "votes": 70236
    },
    {
      "college_share": 23.3,
      "county": "Kaufman, TX",
      "fips": "48257",
      "foreign_born_share": 9.5,
      "hispanic_share": 24.9,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 12.3,
      "swing": 6.2,
      "votes": 68789
    },
    {
      "college_share": 26.7,
      "county": "Paulding, GA",
      "fips": "13223",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.1,
      "hispanic_share": 7.7,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 11.3,
      "swing": 5.2,
      "votes": 94571
    },
    {
      "college_share": 35.4,
      "county": "Island, WA",
      "fips": "53029",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.7,
      "hispanic_share": 8.4,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.7,
      "swing": 4.6,
      "votes": 50562
    },
    {
      "college_share": 34,
      "county": "Henderson, NC",
      "fips": "37089",
      "foreign_born_share": 7.5,
      "hispanic_share": 11.6,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.4,
      "swing": 4.3,
      "votes": 68858
    },
    {
      "college_share": 22.9,
      "county": "Newton, GA",
      "fips": "13217",
      "foreign_born_share": 6.8,
      "hispanic_share": 6.5,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 10.3,
      "swing": 4.2,
      "votes": 58732
    },
    {
      "college_share": 29.9,
      "county": "Mesa, CO",
      "fips": "08077",
      "foreign_born_share": 4.1,
      "hispanic_share": 15.1,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 9.9,
      "swing": 3.8,
      "votes": 89412
    },
    {
      "college_share": 48.3,
      "county": "Fayette, GA",
      "fips": "13113",
      "foreign_born_share": 10.6,
      "hispanic_share": 8,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 9.8,
      "swing": 3.7,
      "votes": 73999
    },
    {
      "college_share": 43.6,
      "county": "Buncombe, NC",
      "fips": "37021",
      "foreign_born_share": 6.4,
      "hispanic_share": 7.6,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "position": "Ten furthest above the national swing",
      "relative_swing": 9.8,
      "swing": 3.7,
      "votes": 157678
    }
  ],
  "id": "swing_map",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so the map draws no intervals. Counties are drawn on 2020 boundaries and matched across elections on FIPS code; a county with no return in one of the two elections draws as no data. Jackson County, Missouri is left blank in 2020 to 2024 because Kansas City's votes are a separate unit in 2024. The data table lists the ten counties at each end for each pair, not the whole map."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2012-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, not weighted; tooltip characteristics from the county demographics panel (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years)",
  "spec": {
    "fips": "fips",
    "frame": "pair",
    "frames": [
      "2012–16",
      "2016–20",
      "2020–24"
    ],
    "legendLabel": "County swing minus national swing (points)",
    "payload": "swing_map.json",
    "scale": {
      "domain": [
        -40,
        40
      ],
      "palette": "party",
      "type": "diverging"
    },
    "tooltipKeys": [
      "swing",
      "college_share",
      "hispanic_share"
    ],
    "value": "relative_swing",
    "valueFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    }
  },
  "subtitle": "County swing in the Democratic minus Republican margin, minus the national swing, in percentage points, for the pairs 2012 to 2016, 2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2024",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "pair",
        "label": "Pair of elections"
      },
      {
        "key": "position",
        "label": "Position"
      },
      {
        "key": "county",
        "label": "County"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "relative_swing",
        "label": "Swing minus national swing (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "swing",
        "label": "Swing (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "hispanic_share",
        "label": "Hispanic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "foreign_born_share",
        "label": "Foreign-born share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "college_share",
        "label": "College share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "votes",
        "label": "Two-party votes, later election"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In 2020 to 2024, {fact:map_within_2024} of counties were within {fact:band} points of the national swing, and the counties furthest below it were high-Hispanic",
  "type": "county-map",
  "width": "full"
}