{ "alt": "Scatter plot of {fact:n_analysis_2024} counties, with Hispanic share on the horizontal axis and swing relative to the national swing on the vertical axis, and two lines joining the means of four groups of counties. The lines fall as Hispanic share rises, faster at higher shares: the vote-weighted mean is {fact:g_hisp_lt10_rel_w} points among counties under {fact:g_cut10} Hispanic and {fact:g_hisp_50p_rel_w} among counties at {fact:g_cut50} or more. In the college-share view the vote-weighted group means show little slope and the county-equal ones rise from the lowest group and level off.", "caption": "Dots fall to the right as the Hispanic share rises, and the drop from one group to the next gets larger. The solid line joins the vote-weighted means of four groups of counties (under {fact:g_cut10} Hispanic, {fact:g_cut10} to under {fact:hisp_cut}, {fact:hisp_cut} to under {fact:g_cut50}, and {fact:g_cut50} or more), each drawn at its group's median share, and the dashed line does the same counting each county once; whiskers are 95% intervals from resampling states and dot area is two-party votes in 2024. The correlation with the swing is {fact:r_hispanic_2024_w} vote-weighted and {fact:r_hispanic_2024_u} county-equal.", "data": [ { "college": 28.7, "county": "Autauga, AL", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 4.5, "votes": 27923 }, { "college": 32.8, "county": "Baldwin, AL", "hispanic": 5.2, "rel": 1.9, "votes": 120732 }, { "college": 11.1, "county": "Barbour, AL", "hispanic": 5.3, "rel": -1, "votes": 9764 }, { "college": 11.5, "county": "Bibb, AL", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": -0.4, "votes": 9191 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "Blount, AL", "hispanic": 9.8, "rel": 5.2, "votes": 27930 }, { "college": 9.2, "county": "Bullock, AL", "hispanic": 7, "rel": 2.1, "votes": 4084 }, { "college": 14.7, "county": "Butler, AL", "hispanic": 1.6, "rel": -0.9, "votes": 8423 }, { "college": 19.8, "county": "Calhoun, AL", "hispanic": 4.2, "rel": 0.5, "votes": 48106 }, { "college": 14.7, "county": "Chambers, AL", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": -1.5, "votes": 14116 }, { "college": 14.7, "county": "Cherokee, AL", "hispanic": 1.8, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 12911 }, { "college": 15, "county": "Chilton, AL", "hispanic": 9, "rel": 1.5, "votes": 19618 }, { "college": 14.6, "county": "Choctaw, AL", "hispanic": 0.9, "rel": -2.2, "votes": 6618 }, { "college": 14.4, "county": "Clarke, AL", "hispanic": 0.9, "rel": 1, "votes": 11892 }, { "college": 13.2, "county": "Clay, AL", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": -1.3, "votes": 6727 }, { "college": 16.5, "county": "Cleburne, AL", "hispanic": 2.3, "rel": 3.2, "votes": 7593 }, { "college": 22.1, "county": "Coffee, AL", "hispanic": 8.8, "rel": 1.5, "votes": 22096 }, { "college": 19.5, "county": "Colbert, AL", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": -1.3, "votes": 26851 }, { "college": 13.6, "county": "Conecuh, AL", "hispanic": 0.8, "rel": -0.5, "votes": 6003 }, { "college": 12.7, "county": "Coosa, AL", "hispanic": 1.9, "rel": -3.6, "votes": 5236 }, { "college": 16.4, "county": "Covington, AL", "hispanic": 1.9, "rel": 1.9, "votes": 16991 }, { "college": 18.6, "county": "Crenshaw, AL", "hispanic": 2.2, "rel": -0.6, "votes": 6457 }, { "college": 17.6, "county": "Cullman, AL", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 42743 }, { "college": 19.3, "county": "Dale, AL", "hispanic": 6.9, "rel": 0.3, "votes": 18960 }, { "college": 17.1, "county": "Dallas, AL", "hispanic": 0.6, "rel": 1, "votes": 15426 }, { "college": 14, "county": "DeKalb, AL", "hispanic": 15.9, "rel": 2.2, "votes": 29391 }, { "college": 25.6, "county": "Elmore, AL", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 41148 }, { "college": 13, "county": "Escambia, AL", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": -2.8, "votes": 14848 }, { "college": 17.9, "county": "Etowah, AL", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 0.9, "votes": 45680 }, { "college": 13.6, "county": "Fayette, AL", "hispanic": 0.7, "rel": 1.5, "votes": 8300 }, { "college": 15.4, "county": "Franklin, AL", "hispanic": 19.1, "rel": -1.2, "votes": 11985 }, { "college": 13.2, "county": "Geneva, AL", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 3, "votes": 12320 }, { "college": 12.6, "county": "Greene, AL", "hispanic": 1.4, "rel": -1.2, "votes": 4018 }, { "college": 16.6, "county": "Hale, AL", "hispanic": 0.7, "rel": -6, "votes": 7237 }, { "college": 20.4, "county": "Henry, AL", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": -1.6, "votes": 9252 }, { "college": 22.6, "county": "Houston, AL", "hispanic": 4, "rel": 1.2, "votes": 43821 }, { "college": 16.1, "county": "Jackson, AL", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 23349 }, { "college": 35.1, "county": "Jefferson, AL", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 293235 }, { "college": 11.7, "county": "Lamar, AL", "hispanic": 1.8, "rel": 2.3, "votes": 6839 }, { "college": 27.4, "county": "Lauderdale, AL", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": -0.5, "votes": 43034 }, { "college": 15.5, "county": "Lawrence, AL", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": -1.5, "votes": 16007 }, { "college": 39.4, "county": "Lee, AL", "hispanic": 4.6, "rel": -1.6, "votes": 71818 }, { "college": 27.6, "county": "Limestone, AL", "hispanic": 6.7, "rel": 5.1, "votes": 52468 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "Lowndes, AL", "hispanic": 0.3, "rel": -2.5, "votes": 5625 }, { "college": 20.8, "county": "Macon, AL", "hispanic": 1.3, "rel": -1.6, "votes": 7766 }, { "college": 45.1, "county": "Madison, AL", "hispanic": 5.9, "rel": 5.1, "votes": 193254 }, { "college": 18.3, "county": "Marengo, AL", "hispanic": 2.6, "rel": 1, "votes": 9626 }, { "college": 13.3, "county": "Marion, AL", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 13442 }, { "college": 21.1, "county": "Marshall, AL", "hispanic": 15.7, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 39987 }, { "college": 25.2, "county": "Mobile, AL", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": 1.5, "votes": 172814 }, { "college": 12.6, "county": "Monroe, AL", "hispanic": 0.3, "rel": -1.2, "votes": 9747 }, { "college": 34.1, "county": "Montgomery, AL", "hispanic": 4.2, "rel": 5.3, "votes": 88423 }, { "college": 22.3, "county": "Morgan, AL", "hispanic": 9.5, "rel": 3, "votes": 52841 }, { "college": 16.8, "county": "Perry, AL", "hispanic": 1.1, "rel": 0.5, "votes": 4443 }, { "college": 13.8, "county": "Pickens, AL", "hispanic": 4.2, "rel": -1, "votes": 8853 }, { "college": 28.8, "county": "Pike, AL", "hispanic": 2.5, "rel": -1.7, "votes": 13123 }, { "college": 17.7, "county": "Randolph, AL", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 0, "votes": 11022 }, { "college": 17.8, "county": "Russell, AL", "hispanic": 5.8, "rel": 1.3, "votes": 20500 }, { "college": 19.7, "county": "St. Clair, AL", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": 6.2, "votes": 43141 }, { "college": 45.5, "county": "Shelby, AL", "hispanic": 6.6, "rel": 5.9, "votes": 112753 }, { "college": 18.7, "county": "Sumter, AL", "hispanic": 0.9, "rel": -1.3, "votes": 5267 }, { "college": 15.9, "county": "Talladega, AL", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": -2.1, "votes": 32998 }, { "college": 19.6, "county": "Tallapoosa, AL", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": -0.1, "votes": 19859 }, { "college": 31.6, "county": "Tuscaloosa, AL", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 0.5, "votes": 84123 }, { "college": 15, "county": "Walker, AL", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 29566 }, { "college": 15.7, "county": "Washington, AL", "hispanic": 1, "rel": -0.7, "votes": 8397 }, { "college": 12.3, "county": "Wilcox, AL", "hispanic": 0.2, "rel": 0, "votes": 5242 }, { "college": 13.8, "county": "Winston, AL", "hispanic": 3.4, "rel": 4.6, "votes": 11075 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "Apache, AZ", "hispanic": 6.5, "rel": -8.8, "votes": 31667 }, { "college": 26.8, "county": "Cochise, AZ", "hispanic": 35.1, "rel": 2.6, "votes": 58232 }, { "college": 39, "county": "Coconino, AZ", "hispanic": 14.9, "rel": 1.7, "votes": 69080 }, { "college": 19, "county": "Gila, AZ", "hispanic": 18.5, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 27405 }, { "college": 14.7, "county": "Graham, AZ", "hispanic": 31.9, "rel": 2.9, "votes": 15044 }, { "college": 18.8, "county": "Greenlee, AZ", "hispanic": 47, "rel": -0.8, "votes": 3262 }, { "college": 12.6, "county": "La Paz, AZ", "hispanic": 26.6, "rel": 0.9, "votes": 7571 }, { "college": 35, "county": "Maricopa, AZ", "hispanic": 31.2, "rel": 0.4, "votes": 2031547 }, { "college": 14.3, "county": "Mohave, AZ", "hispanic": 16.9, "rel": 1.9, "votes": 109764 }, { "college": 17.6, "county": "Navajo, AZ", "hispanic": 11.3, "rel": -2.9, "votes": 50234 }, { "college": 35.2, "county": "Pima, AZ", "hispanic": 37, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 507119 }, { "college": 21.7, "county": "Pinal, AZ", "hispanic": 30.1, "rel": 1.4, "votes": 207582 }, { "college": 22, "county": "Santa Cruz, AZ", "hispanic": 82.9, "rel": -11, "votes": 18964 }, { "college": 28.3, "county": "Yavapai, AZ", "hispanic": 15, "rel": 1.6, "votes": 148063 }, { "college": 16.1, "county": "Yuma, AZ", "hispanic": 64.5, "rel": -8.2, "votes": 67568 }, { "college": 15, "county": "Arkansas, AR", "hispanic": 3.7, "rel": 1.8, "votes": 5454 }, { "college": 12.5, "county": "Ashley, AR", "hispanic": 6, "rel": 2, "votes": 6919 }, { "college": 18.6, "county": "Baxter, AR", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": 3, "votes": 20594 }, { "college": 36.2, "county": "Benton, AR", "hispanic": 17.6, "rel": 5.7, "votes": 125138 }, { "college": 17.5, "county": "Boone, AR", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 3.4, "votes": 16822 }, { "college": 14.6, "county": "Bradley, AR", "hispanic": 15.7, "rel": -1.8, "votes": 3174 }, { "college": 15.3, "county": "Calhoun, AR", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": -2.3, "votes": 2053 }, { "college": 20.6, "county": "Carroll, AR", "hispanic": 15.4, "rel": 3.4, "votes": 11282 }, { "college": 16.3, "county": "Chicot, AR", "hispanic": 6.1, "rel": -2.6, "votes": 3454 }, { "college": 25.7, "county": "Clark, AR", "hispanic": 5.2, "rel": -0.2, "votes": 7485 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "Clay, AR", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 5.2, "votes": 4875 }, { "college": 17.6, "county": "Cleburne, AR", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 12536 }, { "college": 17.8, "county": "Cleveland, AR", "hispanic": 0.7, "rel": 0.6, "votes": 3328 }, { "college": 21.2, "county": "Columbia, AR", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": 1.4, "votes": 7833 }, { "college": 18.8, "county": "Conway, AR", "hispanic": 4.4, "rel": 1.9, "votes": 8342 }, { "college": 28.4, "county": "Craighead, AR", "hispanic": 5.7, "rel": 4.1, "votes": 36362 }, { "college": 19.1, "county": "Crawford, AR", "hispanic": 8.3, "rel": 4.7, "votes": 23368 }, { "college": 17.2, "county": "Crittenden, AR", "hispanic": 3, "rel": 1, "votes": 14390 }, { "college": 16.5, "county": "Cross, AR", "hispanic": 2.2, "rel": 4.7, "votes": 6395 }, { "college": 11.2, "county": "Dallas, AR", "hispanic": 1.4, "rel": 0.2, "votes": 2280 }, { "college": 13.3, "county": "Desha, AR", "hispanic": 6.8, "rel": -1.2, "votes": 3443 }, { "college": 24.1, "county": "Drew, AR", "hispanic": 4, "rel": 0, "votes": 6253 }, { "college": 33.5, "county": "Faulkner, AR", "hispanic": 4.9, "rel": 3.4, "votes": 53109 }, { "college": 12.9, "county": "Franklin, AR", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 5, "votes": 6814 }, { "college": 14.6, "county": "Fulton, AR", "hispanic": 1.3, "rel": 1.3, "votes": 4946 }, { "college": 24.1, "county": "Garland, AR", "hispanic": 6.6, "rel": 3.9, "votes": 41374 }, { "college": 20.9, "county": "Grant, AR", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 4.6, "votes": 7947 }, { "college": 17.1, "county": "Greene, AR", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 5, "votes": 15552 }, { "college": 16.2, "county": "Hempstead, AR", "hispanic": 14.1, "rel": 0.9, "votes": 5969 }, { "college": 16.4, "county": "Hot Spring, AR", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 12044 }, { "college": 15, "county": "Howard, AR", "hispanic": 12.6, "rel": 1.7, "votes": 4404 }, { "college": 18.3, "county": "Independence, AR", "hispanic": 7.7, "rel": 5.4, "votes": 13712 }, { "college": 17.1, "county": "Izard, AR", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 5803 }, { "college": 13.2, "county": "Jackson, AR", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": 1.5, "votes": 4692 }, { "college": 19, "county": "Jefferson, AR", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 21270 }, { "college": 17.2, "county": "Johnson, AR", "hispanic": 13.9, "rel": 4.1, "votes": 8873 }, { "college": 11.5, "county": "Lafayette, AR", "hispanic": 1.8, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 2287 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "Lawrence, AR", "hispanic": 1.9, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 5573 }, { "college": 8, "county": "Lee, AR", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 4.7, "votes": 2451 }, { "college": 10.2, "county": "Lincoln, AR", "hispanic": 4.6, "rel": 0.3, "votes": 3315 }, { "college": 15.7, "county": "Little River, AR", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 1.4, "votes": 4828 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "Logan, AR", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 3.9, "votes": 8031 }, { "college": 21.3, "county": "Lonoke, AR", "hispanic": 5, "rel": 6.1, "votes": 30015 }, { "college": 12.5, "county": "Madison, AR", "hispanic": 6.2, "rel": 3.2, "votes": 7376 }, { "college": 15.5, "county": "Marion, AR", "hispanic": 2.5, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 7731 }, { "college": 16.5, "county": "Miller, AR", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 1.9, "votes": 15611 }, { "college": 14.6, "county": "Mississippi, AR", "hispanic": 4.6, "rel": -3, "votes": 10537 }, { "college": 12.7, "county": "Monroe, AR", "hispanic": 2, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 2387 }, { "college": 15.9, "county": "Montgomery, AR", "hispanic": 4.6, "rel": 2.9, "votes": 3632 }, { "college": 12.9, "county": "Nevada, AR", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": -1.4, "votes": 2851 }, { "college": 15.8, "county": "Newton, AR", "hispanic": 1.3, "rel": 4.5, "votes": 3707 }, { "college": 14.9, "county": "Ouachita, AR", "hispanic": 2.5, "rel": 0.7, "votes": 8468 }, { "college": 17.1, "county": "Perry, AR", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 2.2, "votes": 4482 }, { "college": 15.2, "county": "Phillips, AR", "hispanic": 2, "rel": -0.3, "votes": 4852 }, { "college": 18.7, "county": "Pike, AR", "hispanic": 7.3, "rel": 1.2, "votes": 4306 }, { "college": 11.4, "county": "Poinsett, AR", "hispanic": 3.5, "rel": 2.8, "votes": 6966 }, { "college": 16.5, "county": "Polk, AR", "hispanic": 6.8, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 8132 }, { "college": 24.6, "county": "Pope, AR", "hispanic": 10.1, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 23605 }, { "college": 16.7, "county": "Prairie, AR", "hispanic": 2.1, "rel": 1.3, "votes": 3152 }, { "college": 36.6, "county": "Pulaski, AR", "hispanic": 7.3, "rel": 5.7, "votes": 150015 }, { "college": 12.9, "county": "Randolph, AR", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 4.1, "votes": 6505 }, { "college": 12.6, "county": "St Francis, AR", "hispanic": 4.5, "rel": 1.6, "votes": 5862 }, { "college": 28.5, "county": "Saline, AR", "hispanic": 6.1, "rel": 7.3, "votes": 56345 }, { "college": 12.6, "county": "Scott, AR", "hispanic": 7.9, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 3338 }, { "college": 13, "county": "Searcy, AR", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 3816 }, { "college": 23.3, "county": "Sebastian, AR", "hispanic": 15.2, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 44371 }, { "college": 11.4, "county": "Sevier, AR", "hispanic": 34.5, "rel": -1.3, "votes": 4634 }, { "college": 12.2, "county": "Sharp, AR", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 4.1, "votes": 7294 }, { "college": 14.2, "county": "Stone, AR", "hispanic": 2.1, "rel": 2.3, "votes": 5897 }, { "college": 20.1, "county": "Union, AR", "hispanic": 4.4, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 15215 }, { "college": 15.4, "county": "Van Buren, AR", "hispanic": 3.3, "rel": 2.8, "votes": 7460 }, { "college": 34.2, "county": "Washington, AR", "hispanic": 17.8, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 94022 }, { "college": 20.6, "county": "White, AR", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 3.9, "votes": 30155 }, { "college": 15.6, "county": "Woodruff, AR", "hispanic": 0.8, "rel": 1.6, "votes": 2273 }, { "college": 14.1, "county": "Yell, AR", "hispanic": 20.9, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 6360 }, { "college": 50.5, "county": "Alameda, CA", "hispanic": 22.8, "rel": -1.7, "votes": 640340 }, { "college": 39.7, "county": "Alpine, CA", "hispanic": 14.6, "rel": 6.6, "votes": 722 }, { "college": 20.3, "county": "Amador, CA", "hispanic": 15.2, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 21801 }, { "college": 30.1, "county": "Butte, CA", "hispanic": 18.4, "rel": 1.2, "votes": 91407 }, { "college": 21.8, "county": "Calaveras, CA", "hispanic": 13.5, "rel": 1.6, "votes": 25806 }, { "college": 15.6, "county": "Colusa, CA", "hispanic": 61.3, "rel": -5.9, "votes": 6845 }, { "college": 44.3, "county": "Contra Costa, CA", "hispanic": 26.7, "rel": -0.9, "votes": 511316 }, { "college": 18.4, 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"Beckham, OK", "hispanic": 14.2, "rel": 8.2, "votes": 7567 }, { "college": 18.7, "county": "Blaine, OK", "hispanic": 12.4, "rel": 6.1, "votes": 3725 }, { "college": 24.6, "county": "Bryan, OK", "hispanic": 7.2, "rel": 4.3, "votes": 17568 }, { "college": 15.5, "county": "Caddo, OK", "hispanic": 15.2, "rel": 2.9, "votes": 9300 }, { "college": 30.1, "county": "Canadian, OK", "hispanic": 10.7, "rel": 9.3, "votes": 71589 }, { "college": 20.1, "county": "Carter, OK", "hispanic": 8.2, "rel": 4, "votes": 19222 }, { "college": 28.3, "county": "Cherokee, OK", "hispanic": 7.8, "rel": 2.9, "votes": 17463 }, { "college": 14.4, "county": "Choctaw, OK", "hispanic": 4.8, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 5577 }, { "college": 30, "county": "Cimarron, OK", "hispanic": 24.2, "rel": 6.9, "votes": 926 }, { "college": 35.2, "county": "Cleveland, OK", "hispanic": 10, "rel": 5.3, "votes": 116657 }, { "college": 17.8, "county": "Coal, OK", "hispanic": 4.6, "rel": 3.4, "votes": 2500 }, { "college": 23.7, "county": "Comanche, OK", "hispanic": 14.1, "rel": 3, "votes": 33646 }, { "college": 19.1, "county": "Cotton, OK", "hispanic": 8, "rel": 6.7, "votes": 2459 }, { "college": 14.8, "county": "Craig, OK", "hispanic": 3.9, "rel": 5.6, "votes": 5952 }, { "college": 17.4, "county": "Creek, OK", "hispanic": 4.9, "rel": 5.3, "votes": 30741 }, { "college": 29, "county": "Custer, OK", "hispanic": 19.1, "rel": 6.4, "votes": 9972 }, { "college": 19, "county": "Delaware, OK", "hispanic": 4.2, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 17882 }, { "college": 21.6, "county": "Dewey, OK", "hispanic": 6.8, "rel": 6.9, "votes": 2193 }, { "college": 20.9, "county": "Ellis, OK", "hispanic": 8.4, "rel": 10.7, "votes": 1782 }, { "college": 23.3, "county": "Garfield, OK", "hispanic": 14, "rel": 6.4, "votes": 21442 }, { "college": 17, "county": "Garvin, OK", "hispanic": 9.9, "rel": 4.5, "votes": 10865 }, { "college": 22.1, "county": "Grady, OK", "hispanic": 6.6, "rel": 6, "votes": 24914 }, { "college": 22.7, "county": "Grant, OK", "hispanic": 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"votes": 3227 }, { "college": 13, "county": "Latimer, OK", "hispanic": 4.1, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 4037 }, { "college": 15.6, "county": "Le Flore, OK", "hispanic": 7.6, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 18517 }, { "college": 15.4, "county": "Lincoln, OK", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 6.1, "votes": 15207 }, { "college": 30.3, "county": "Logan, OK", "hispanic": 7.7, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 23649 }, { "college": 15, "county": "Love, OK", "hispanic": 17.2, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 4199 }, { "college": 27, "county": "McClain, OK", "hispanic": 9, "rel": 6.5, "votes": 21036 }, { "college": 15.4, "county": "McCurtain, OK", "hispanic": 6.6, "rel": 3.7, "votes": 11181 }, { "college": 14.5, "county": "McIntosh, OK", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 8324 }, { "college": 20.1, "county": "Major, OK", "hispanic": 10.5, "rel": 6.5, "votes": 3414 }, { "college": 16.7, "county": "Marshall, OK", "hispanic": 18.1, "rel": 5.3, "votes": 6517 }, { "college": 16.3, "county": "Mayes, OK", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 3.7, "votes": 17043 }, { "college": 19.1, "county": "Murray, OK", "hispanic": 7.1, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 5769 }, { "college": 19.3, "county": "Muskogee, OK", "hispanic": 7, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 23950 }, { "college": 20, "county": "Noble, OK", "hispanic": 4.4, "rel": 6, "votes": 4862 }, { "college": 15.1, "county": "Nowata, OK", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": 5.2, "votes": 4494 }, { "college": 12.8, "county": "Okfuskee, OK", "hispanic": 4.1, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 3934 }, { "college": 34.5, "county": "Oklahoma, OK", "hispanic": 18.9, "rel": 5.5, "votes": 282387 }, { "college": 15.9, "county": "Okmulgee, OK", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 0.5, "votes": 14079 }, { "college": 21, "county": "Osage, OK", "hispanic": 4.2, "rel": 4.3, "votes": 20271 }, { "college": 15.1, "county": "Ottawa, OK", "hispanic": 6, "rel": 3.9, "votes": 11001 }, { "college": 17.3, "county": "Pawnee, OK", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": 5.1, "votes": 6760 }, { "college": 38.8, "county": "Payne, OK", "hispanic": 5.7, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 28522 }, { "college": 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13.5, "county": "Logan, WV", "hispanic": 0.9, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 11348 }, { "college": 6.8, "county": "McDowell, WV", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 3.7, "votes": 5346 }, { "college": 25.1, "county": "Marion, WV", "hispanic": 1.5, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 24066 }, { "college": 19.5, "county": "Marshall, WV", "hispanic": 1.1, "rel": 5.4, "votes": 12994 }, { "college": 16.7, "county": "Mason, WV", "hispanic": 0.7, "rel": 1.1, "votes": 10343 }, { "college": 21.5, "county": "Mercer, WV", "hispanic": 1.3, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 23223 }, { "college": 20.7, "county": "Mineral, WV", "hispanic": 1.1, "rel": 3.2, "votes": 12730 }, { "college": 9.8, "county": "Mingo, WV", "hispanic": 0.5, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 8386 }, { "college": 46.3, "county": "Monongalia, WV", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": 2.9, "votes": 40349 }, { "college": 15.5, "county": "Monroe, WV", "hispanic": 0.8, "rel": 1.1, "votes": 6244 }, { "college": 18.3, "county": "Morgan, WV", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 2.8, "votes": 8956 }, { "college": 20.5, "county": "Nicholas, WV", "hispanic": 0.8, "rel": 2.6, "votes": 9879 }, { "college": 32.7, "county": "Ohio, WV", "hispanic": 1.4, "rel": 5.7, "votes": 18320 }, { "college": 18.2, "county": "Pendleton, WV", "hispanic": 1.6, "rel": 1, "votes": 3367 }, { "college": 12.4, "county": "Pleasants, WV", "hispanic": 2.5, "rel": 5.4, "votes": 3288 }, { "college": 16.6, "county": "Pocahontas, WV", "hispanic": 1, "rel": 1.6, "votes": 3816 }, { "college": 16.9, "county": "Preston, WV", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 3.8, "votes": 14129 }, { "college": 27.7, "county": "Putnam, WV", "hispanic": 1.4, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 26992 }, { "college": 21.2, "county": "Raleigh, WV", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 2, "votes": 30460 }, { "college": 17.8, "county": "Randolph, WV", "hispanic": 1, "rel": 3.2, "votes": 11364 }, { "college": 13.1, "county": "Ritchie, WV", "hispanic": 0.4, "rel": 4.3, "votes": 3990 }, { "college": 14.1, "county": "Roane, WV", "hispanic": 1.2, "rel": -0.2, "votes": 5407 }, { "college": 17.4, "county": "Summers, WV", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 1.2, "votes": 5157 }, { "college": 19.6, "county": "Taylor, WV", "hispanic": 1, "rel": 4.3, "votes": 7116 }, { "college": 21.5, "county": "Tucker, WV", "hispanic": 0.5, "rel": 6.5, "votes": 3559 }, { "college": 16.1, "county": "Tyler, WV", "hispanic": 0.8, "rel": 4.6, "votes": 3545 }, { "college": 17.2, "county": "Upshur, WV", "hispanic": 1.4, "rel": 3.2, "votes": 9666 }, { "college": 18.3, "county": "Wayne, WV", "hispanic": 0.8, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 15466 }, { "college": 11.7, "county": "Webster, WV", "hispanic": 0.4, "rel": 2.3, "votes": 2957 }, { "college": 14.8, "county": "Wetzel, WV", "hispanic": 1.2, "rel": 2, "votes": 6012 }, { "college": 13, "county": "Wirt, WV", "hispanic": 0.2, "rel": 2.6, "votes": 2529 }, { "college": 23, "county": "Wood, WV", "hispanic": 1.3, "rel": 5, "votes": 36697 }, { "college": 12.5, "county": "Wyoming, WV", "hispanic": 0.6, "rel": 5.1, "votes": 7483 }, { "college": 16.2, "county": "Adams, WI", "hispanic": 4.3, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 12206 }, { "college": 21.9, "county": "Ashland, WI", "hispanic": 3, "rel": -0.2, "votes": 8803 }, { "college": 21.9, "county": "Barron, WI", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 2.2, "votes": 25667 }, { "college": 33.5, "county": "Bayfield, WI", "hispanic": 2.2, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 10967 }, { "college": 31.9, "county": "Brown, WI", "hispanic": 9.6, "rel": 5.8, "votes": 147069 }, { "college": 20.6, "county": "Buffalo, WI", "hispanic": 2.6, "rel": 1.1, "votes": 7978 }, { "college": 21.7, "county": "Burnett, WI", "hispanic": 2, "rel": 3.6, "votes": 10673 }, { "college": 31.4, "county": "Calumet, WI", "hispanic": 5, "rel": 5.8, "votes": 32415 }, { "college": 23.2, "county": "Chippewa, WI", "hispanic": 1.9, "rel": 3.6, "votes": 37972 }, { "college": 13.2, "county": "Clark, WI", "hispanic": 5.7, "rel": 4, "votes": 14990 }, { "college": 25.1, "county": "Columbia, WI", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 3, "votes": 34376 }, { "college": 18.6, "county": "Crawford, WI", "hispanic": 1.8, "rel": -0.1, "votes": 8973 }, { "college": 53.9, "county": "Dane, WI", "hispanic": 7.2, "rel": 5, "votes": 359449 }, { "college": 19.2, "county": "Dodge, WI", "hispanic": 5.9, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 49585 }, { "college": 36.1, "county": "Door, WI", "hispanic": 3.7, "rel": 6.9, "votes": 20664 }, { "college": 27.1, "county": "Douglas, WI", "hispanic": 1.8, "rel": 2, "votes": 24805 }, { "college": 29.6, "county": "Dunn, WI", "hispanic": 2.2, "rel": 4.2, "votes": 25369 }, { "college": 35, "county": "Eau Claire, WI", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 5.8, "votes": 62128 }, { "college": 23.2, "county": "Florence, WI", "hispanic": 0.4, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 3139 }, { "college": 23.1, "county": "Fond Du Lac, WI", "hispanic": 6.1, "rel": 4, "votes": 57767 }, { "college": 15.7, "county": "Forest, WI", "hispanic": 2.5, "rel": 3.7, "votes": 5063 }, { "college": 24.4, "county": "Grant, WI", "hispanic": 2.2, "rel": 0.2, "votes": 26888 }, { "college": 25.5, "county": "Green, WI", "hispanic": 3.7, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 21746 }, { "college": 21.9, "county": "Green Lake, WI", "hispanic": 5.4, "rel": 5.7, "votes": 10907 }, { "college": 26.8, "county": "Iowa, WI", "hispanic": 2.1, "rel": -0.1, "votes": 14381 }, { "college": 23.9, "county": "Iron, WI", "hispanic": 1.5, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 4044 }, { "college": 15.8, "county": "Jackson, WI", "hispanic": 3.7, "rel": 1.6, "votes": 10361 }, { "college": 27.6, "county": "Jefferson, WI", "hispanic": 7.9, "rel": 5, "votes": 49345 }, { "college": 15.9, "county": "Juneau, WI", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 14379 }, { "college": 29.5, "county": "Kenosha, WI", "hispanic": 14.3, "rel": 3, "votes": 89304 }, { "college": 20.9, "county": "Kewaunee, WI", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": 5.2, "votes": 12326 }, { "college": 36.3, "county": "La Crosse, WI", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 1.8, "votes": 71255 }, { "college": 21, "county": "Lafayette, WI", "hispanic": 5.6, "rel": -0.5, "votes": 8725 }, { "college": 16.8, "county": "Langlade, WI", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 3.9, "votes": 11528 }, { "college": 19.1, "county": "Lincoln, WI", "hispanic": 2.1, "rel": 3.6, "votes": 16939 }, { "college": 22.3, "county": "Manitowoc, WI", "hispanic": 4.9, "rel": 6, "votes": 45599 }, { "college": 27.2, "county": "Marathon, WI", "hispanic": 3.2, "rel": 5.5, "votes": 77742 }, { "college": 18.1, "county": "Marinette, WI", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 24085 }, { "college": 15.2, "county": "Marquette, WI", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": 3.8, "votes": 9293 }, { "college": 17.6, "county": "Menominee, WI", "hispanic": 6.2, "rel": 3.4, "votes": 1562 }, { "college": 33, "county": "Milwaukee, WI", "hispanic": 16.2, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 454314 }, { "college": 21.3, "county": "Monroe, WI", "hispanic": 5.3, "rel": 3.7, "votes": 23039 }, { "college": 18, "county": "Oconto, WI", "hispanic": 2.1, "rel": 4.1, "votes": 24642 }, { "college": 27.5, "county": "Oneida, WI", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 3.3, "votes": 24535 }, { "college": 31.4, "county": "Outagamie, WI", "hispanic": 4.9, "rel": 5.9, "votes": 110265 }, { "college": 50.4, "county": "Ozaukee, WI", "hispanic": 3.4, "rel": 7.7, "votes": 62378 }, { "college": 21.5, "county": "Pepin, WI", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 3.5, "votes": 4321 }, { "college": 31.7, "county": "Pierce, WI", "hispanic": 2.7, "rel": 2.2, "votes": 24588 }, { "college": 23.5, "county": "Polk, WI", "hispanic": 2.1, "rel": 2.6, "votes": 27863 }, { "college": 33.7, "county": "Portage, WI", "hispanic": 3.8, "rel": 4.5, "votes": 42490 }, { "college": 17.4, "county": "Price, WI", "hispanic": 1.8, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 8768 }, { "college": 27.1, "county": "Racine, WI", "hispanic": 14.4, "rel": 4, "votes": 106068 }, { "college": 20.5, "county": "Richland, WI", "hispanic": 2.9, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 9192 }, { "college": 24.7, "county": "Rock, WI", "hispanic": 9.6, "rel": 2.1, "votes": 86860 }, { "college": 16.9, "county": "Rusk, WI", "hispanic": 2, "rel": 2.9, "votes": 8176 }, { "college": 38.1, "county": "St. Croix, WI", "hispanic": 2.8, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 59407 }, { "college": 25.6, "county": "Sauk, WI", "hispanic": 6.1, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 36970 }, { "college": 26.1, "county": "Sawyer, WI", "hispanic": 2.6, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 11021 }, { "college": 17.7, "county": "Shawano, WI", "hispanic": 3.1, "rel": 5.4, "votes": 23186 }, { "college": 26.6, "county": "Sheboygan, WI", "hispanic": 7.2, "rel": 5.8, "votes": 66498 }, { "college": 16.6, "county": "Taylor, WI", "hispanic": 2.6, "rel": 5.2, "votes": 11032 }, { "college": 19.9, "county": "Trempealeau, WI", "hispanic": 10.9, "rel": 1.3, "votes": 15880 }, { "college": 23.9, "county": "Vernon, WI", "hispanic": 1.7, "rel": 3, "votes": 16321 }, { "college": 29.3, "county": "Vilas, WI", "hispanic": 2.4, "rel": 4.9, "votes": 15956 }, { "college": 30.9, "county": "Walworth, WI", "hispanic": 11.7, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 59764 }, { "college": 24.1, "county": "Washburn, WI", "hispanic": 2, "rel": 1.7, "votes": 10829 }, { "college": 34.1, "county": "Washington, WI", "hispanic": 3.5, "rel": 8, "votes": 90108 }, { "college": 46.8, "county": "Waukesha, WI", "hispanic": 5.3, "rel": 7.2, "votes": 271246 }, { "college": 20.7, "county": "Waupaca, WI", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": 4.6, "votes": 30040 }, { "college": 17.1, "county": "Waushara, WI", "hispanic": 6.7, "rel": 5, "votes": 14196 }, { "college": 30.1, "county": "Winnebago, WI", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 5.3, "votes": 93839 }, { "college": 21, "county": "Wood, WI", "hispanic": 3.5, "rel": 5.4, "votes": 41596 }, { "college": 55.1, "county": "Albany, WY", "hispanic": 10.1, "rel": 0, "votes": 17301 }, { "college": 21.5, "county": "Big Horn, WY", "hispanic": 9.4, "rel": 4.4, "votes": 5609 }, { "college": 21.5, "county": "Campbell, WY", "hispanic": 9.1, "rel": 7.9, "votes": 18010 }, { "college": 22.4, "county": "Carbon, WY", "hispanic": 18.3, "rel": 2.7, "votes": 6226 }, { "college": 22.3, "county": "Converse, WY", "hispanic": 8.2, "rel": 6.3, "votes": 6601 }, { "college": 24.3, "county": "Crook, WY", "hispanic": 2.3, "rel": 8.2, "votes": 4248 }, { "college": 25.7, "county": "Fremont, WY", "hispanic": 7.1, "rel": 5, "votes": 16731 }, { "college": 24.3, "county": "Goshen, WY", "hispanic": 10.5, "rel": 4.8, "votes": 6049 }, { "college": 25.1, "county": "Hot Springs, WY", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": 5.2, "votes": 2570 }, { "college": 31.7, "county": "Johnson, WY", "hispanic": 4.6, "rel": 4, "votes": 4783 }, { "college": 31.6, "county": "Laramie, WY", "hispanic": 15.5, "rel": 2.5, "votes": 42216 }, { "college": 24.2, "county": "Lincoln, WY", "hispanic": 5.1, "rel": 7, "votes": 10580 }, { "college": 25.6, "county": "Natrona, WY", "hispanic": 9.1, "rel": 6.1, "votes": 33008 }, { "college": 18.3, "county": "Niobrara, WY", "hispanic": 5.9, "rel": 0.1, "votes": 1220 }, { "college": 35.4, "county": "Park, WY", "hispanic": 5.8, "rel": 3.9, "votes": 16343 }, { "college": 20, "county": "Platte, WY", "hispanic": 8.6, "rel": 2.4, "votes": 4654 }, { "college": 30.9, "county": "Sheridan, WY", "hispanic": 4.7, "rel": 4.3, "votes": 15961 }, { "college": 30.5, "county": "Sublette, WY", "hispanic": 7.3, "rel": 7.8, "votes": 4825 }, { "college": 21.1, "county": "Sweetwater, WY", "hispanic": 16.4, "rel": 4.3, "votes": 16272 }, { "college": 58.1, "county": "Teton, WY", "hispanic": 15, "rel": 3.1, "votes": 12882 }, { "college": 21, "county": "Uinta, WY", "hispanic": 9.8, "rel": 6.4, "votes": 8843 }, { "college": 23.7, "county": "Washakie, WY", "hispanic": 14.2, "rel": 7.4, "votes": 3781 }, { "college": 18.6, "county": "Weston, WY", "hispanic": 3.6, "rel": 7.3, "votes": 3447 } ], "id": "swing_by_share", "notes": [ "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The number of counties in each group is in the tooltip.", "Counties without 2020 characteristics (the eight Connecticut counties) and Jackson County, Missouri are left out. Points are shown for all remaining counties." ], "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the later election or county-equal, as stated", "spec": { "highlight": [ "Starr, TX", "Miami-Dade, FL" ], "label": "county", "overlays": [ { "hi": "hi", "kind": "line", "label": "Group mean, vote-weighted", "lo": "lo", "rows": [ { "hi": 3.88, "lo": 2.75, "n": 2285, "x": 3.3, "y": 3.33 }, { "hi": 3.41, "lo": 0.3, "n": 503, "x": 14.7, "y": 1.66 }, { "hi": -0.3, "lo": -3.6, "n": 211, "x": 33, "y": -1.88 }, { "hi": -5.32, "lo": -12.18, "n": 103, "x": 62.5, "y": -7.59 } ], "x": "x", "y": "y" }, { "hi": "hi", "kind": "line", "label": "Group mean, county-equal", "lo": "lo", "rows": [ { "hi": 3.54, "lo": 2.64, "n": 2285, "x": 3.3, "y": 3.08 }, { "hi": 3.73, "lo": 2.14, "n": 503, "x": 14.7, "y": 2.95 }, { "hi": 1.88, "lo": -0.66, "n": 211, "x": 33, "y": 1.04 }, { "hi": -2.92, "lo": -7.47, "n": 103, "x": 62.5, "y": -3.91 } ], "x": "x", "y": "y" } ], "size": "votes", "sizeFormat": { "digits": 0, "thousands": true }, "sizeLabel": "Two-party votes, 2024", "x": "hispanic", "xDomain": [ 0, 100 ], "xFormat": { "digits": 0 }, "xLabel": "Hispanic share of residents, 2020 (%)", "y": "rel", "yDomain": [ -25, 20 ], "yFormat": { "digits": 1, "signed": true }, "yLabel": "County swing minus national swing, 2020 to 2024 (points)" }, "subtitle": "Each dot is a county with characteristics for 2020; the vertical axis is its swing in the Democratic minus Republican margin between 2020 and 2024, minus the national swing, in percentage points", "table": { "columns": [ { "key": "county", "label": "County" }, { "format": { "digits": 1 }, "key": "hispanic", "label": "Hispanic share, 2020 (%)" }, { "format": { "digits": 1 }, "key": "college", "label": "College share, 2020 (%)" }, { "format": { "digits": 1, "signed": true }, "key": "rel", "label": "Swing minus national swing (points)" }, { "format": { "digits": 0, "thousands": true }, "key": "votes", "label": "Two-party votes, 2024" } ] }, "title": "County swing relative to the nation fell with Hispanic share in 2020 to 2024, and fell faster at higher shares", "type": "scatter", "views": [ { "id": "hispanic", "label": "Hispanic share" }, { "caption": "The vote-weighted group means stay within a narrow range from the lowest to the highest college share, and the county-equal means rise from the lowest group and level off. The groups are counties under {fact:g_cut20ba} college, {fact:g_cut20ba} to under {fact:g_cut40ba} and {fact:g_cut40ba} or more, each mean drawn at its group's median share; whiskers are 95% intervals from resampling states, and dot area is two-party votes in 2024.", "id": "college", "label": "College share", "spec": { "highlight": [], "overlays": [ { "hi": "hi", "kind": "line", "label": "Group mean, vote-weighted", "lo": "lo", "rows": [ { "hi": 2.51, "lo": 0.25, "n": 1346, "x": 16.1, "y": 1.43 }, { "hi": 2.83, "lo": -0.25, "n": 1528, "x": 25.4, "y": 1.08 }, { "hi": 3.31, "lo": 0.43, "n": 228, "x": 46.7, "y": 1.69 } ], "x": "x", "y": "y" }, { "hi": "hi", "kind": "line", "label": "Group mean, county-equal", "lo": "lo", "rows": [ { "hi": 2.49, "lo": 1.37, "n": 1346, "x": 16.1, "y": 1.91 }, { "hi": 3.83, "lo": 2.74, "n": 1528, "x": 25.4, "y": 3.3 }, { "hi": 4.28, "lo": 2.11, "n": 228, "x": 46.7, "y": 3.18 } ], "x": "x", "y": "y" } ], "x": "college", "xDomain": [ 0, 80 ], "xLabel": "Adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, 2020 (%)" }, "title": "Swing relative to the nation shows little slope with college share in 2020 to 2024" } ], "width": "wide" }