{
  "alt": "Table with eight rows, four groups of counties in two pairs of elections, giving each group's college and foreign-born correlations with the county swing, mean college share and mean swing. In 2020 to 2024 the college correlation is {fact:sz_college_2024_big} among the large counties and {fact:sz_college_2024_small} among the other counties, against {fact:r_college_2024_w} across all counties, vote-weighted, and the large counties have a mean college share of {fact:sz_mean_college_2024_big}, against {fact:sz_mean_college_2024_small}.",
  "caption": "Read down the college column for 2020 to 2024: the two size groups have similar correlations, and the vote-weighted correlation across all counties is lower because the large counties have a higher college share and a lower swing. Large counties are those with {fact:big_cut} or more two-party votes in the later election. Inside a size group each county counts once; the all-county rows give both weightings.",
  "data": [
    {
      "college": 0.245831,
      "college_ci": "+0.11 to +0.41",
      "college_high": 0.407697,
      "college_low": 0.106679,
      "foreign": -0.500309,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.67 to −0.10",
      "foreign_high": -0.104306,
      "foreign_low": -0.668835,
      "group": "All counties, vote-weighted",
      "mean_college": 32.2101,
      "mean_swing": 2.53268,
      "n_counties": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "vote_share": 100
    },
    {
      "college": 0.510954,
      "college_ci": "+0.45 to +0.60",
      "college_high": 0.59665,
      "college_low": 0.454163,
      "foreign": -0.0324695,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.20 to +0.22",
      "foreign_high": 0.22288,
      "foreign_low": -0.198848,
      "group": "All counties, county-equal",
      "mean_college": 21.6987,
      "mean_swing": 1.13365,
      "n_counties": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "vote_share": 100
    },
    {
      "college": 0.213876,
      "college_ci": "+0.02 to +0.38",
      "college_high": 0.375065,
      "college_low": 0.0219034,
      "foreign": -0.646968,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.78 to −0.37",
      "foreign_high": -0.367455,
      "foreign_low": -0.778594,
      "group": "Large counties, county-equal",
      "mean_college": 37.5918,
      "mean_swing": 3.19186,
      "n_counties": 142,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "vote_share": 48.7592
    },
    {
      "college": 0.534135,
      "college_ci": "+0.48 to +0.63",
      "college_high": 0.625079,
      "college_low": 0.47733,
      "foreign": -0.0275892,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.24 to +0.26",
      "foreign_high": 0.264068,
      "foreign_low": -0.238282,
      "group": "Other counties, county-equal",
      "mean_college": 20.939,
      "mean_swing": 1.03528,
      "n_counties": 2971,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "vote_share": 51.2408
    },
    {
      "college": 0.0214416,
      "college_ci": "−0.08 to +0.13",
      "college_high": 0.134211,
      "college_low": -0.0801583,
      "foreign": -0.688242,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.77 to −0.49",
      "foreign_high": -0.486996,
      "foreign_low": -0.772058,
      "group": "All counties, vote-weighted",
      "mean_college": 34.6255,
      "mean_swing": -4.79256,
      "n_counties": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "vote_share": 100
    },
    {
      "college": 0.156232,
      "college_ci": "+0.07 to +0.24",
      "college_high": 0.244384,
      "college_low": 0.0658647,
      "foreign": -0.343837,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.47 to −0.14",
      "foreign_high": -0.138974,
      "foreign_low": -0.465832,
      "group": "All counties, county-equal",
      "mean_college": 23.6139,
      "mean_swing": -3.40776,
      "n_counties": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "vote_share": 100
    },
    {
      "college": 0.231728,
      "college_ci": "0.00 to +0.40",
      "college_high": 0.404439,
      "college_low": 3.96655e-05,
      "foreign": -0.697447,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.80 to −0.54",
      "foreign_high": -0.544544,
      "foreign_low": -0.802421,
      "group": "Large counties, county-equal",
      "mean_college": 40.6554,
      "mean_swing": -5.53471,
      "n_counties": 134,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "vote_share": 46.2886
    },
    {
      "college": 0.222924,
      "college_ci": "+0.15 to +0.29",
      "college_high": 0.289374,
      "college_low": 0.151271,
      "foreign": -0.27599,
      "foreign_ci": "−0.40 to −0.07",
      "foreign_high": -0.0718057,
      "foreign_low": -0.404023,
      "group": "Other counties, county-equal",
      "mean_college": 22.8445,
      "mean_swing": -3.31173,
      "n_counties": 2968,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "vote_share": 53.7114
    }
  ],
  "id": "size_classes",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. Intervals within a size group resample states from the counties of that group.",
    "Counties are those in the correlations for the pair; the eight Connecticut counties and, in 2020 to 2024, Jackson County, Missouri are left out."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the later election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Counties and weighting"
      },
      {
        "key": "pair",
        "label": "Pair of elections"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "college",
        "label": "College correlation"
      },
      {
        "key": "college_ci",
        "label": "95% interval"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "foreign",
        "label": "Foreign-born correlation"
      },
      {
        "key": "foreign_ci",
        "label": "95% interval"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "mean_college",
        "label": "Mean college share, start of pair (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "mean_swing",
        "label": "Mean swing (points)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Correlation of the college share and the foreign-born share with the county swing, with the mean college share and mean swing of each group of counties, for 2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2024",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Counties and weighting"
      },
      {
        "key": "pair",
        "label": "Pair of elections"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_counties",
        "label": "Counties"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "vote_share",
        "label": "Share of two-party votes (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "college",
        "label": "College correlation"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "college_low",
        "label": "College, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "college_high",
        "label": "College, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "foreign",
        "label": "Foreign-born correlation"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "foreign_low",
        "label": "Foreign-born, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "foreign_high",
        "label": "Foreign-born, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "mean_college",
        "label": "Mean college share, start of pair (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "mean_swing",
        "label": "Mean swing (points)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The 2020 to 2024 college correlation is similar in large and other counties and is near zero only across all counties weighted by votes",
  "type": "table",
  "width": "wide"
}