{
  "alt": "Grouped horizontal bar chart of each county type's mean swing relative to the all-county mean in 2020 to 2024, weighted by votes and counting each county once, with intervals. High-Hispanic counties are {fact:td_hisp_w} vote-weighted and {fact:td_hisp_u} county-equal, and both intervals are below zero. High-Black counties are {fact:td_black_w}, with an interval that includes zero, and {fact:td_black_u}, with an interval below zero. Affluent suburban counties are {fact:td_aff_w} and {fact:td_aff_u}, and both intervals include zero. All other counties are {fact:td_other_w} and {fact:td_other_u}.",
  "caption": "Bars to the left of zero moved further toward the Republicans than the average county did, and a whisker that crosses zero is a difference whose interval includes zero. Each bar is a group's mean swing minus the national swing, minus the mean over all counties in the same weighting, which is {fact:t_all_w} vote-weighted and {fact:t_all_u} county-equal. Whiskers are 95% intervals from resampling states.",
  "data": [
    {
      "all_mean": 1.30415,
      "conf_high": -1.15233,
      "conf_low": -4.76461,
      "county_type": "High-Hispanic",
      "diff_all": -4.24219,
      "diff_high": -3.02663,
      "diff_low": -6.16822,
      "estimate": -2.93804,
      "n": 314,
      "votes_millions": 36.6093,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 2.68895,
      "conf_high": 0.403682,
      "conf_low": -2.00663,
      "county_type": "High-Hispanic",
      "diff_all": -3.27355,
      "diff_high": -2.44529,
      "diff_low": -4.69052,
      "estimate": -0.584599,
      "n": 314,
      "votes_millions": 36.6093,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 1.30415,
      "conf_high": 3.38737,
      "conf_low": 0.603027,
      "county_type": "High-Black",
      "diff_all": 0.867098,
      "diff_high": 2.12421,
      "diff_low": -0.824301,
      "estimate": 2.17125,
      "n": 379,
      "votes_millions": 17.4561,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 2.68895,
      "conf_high": 1.70652,
      "conf_low": -0.178846,
      "county_type": "High-Black",
      "diff_all": -1.81595,
      "diff_high": -1.02751,
      "diff_low": -2.85146,
      "estimate": 0.873006,
      "n": 379,
      "votes_millions": 17.4561,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 1.30415,
      "conf_high": 3.67919,
      "conf_low": 0.728891,
      "county_type": "Affluent suburban",
      "diff_all": 0.792756,
      "diff_high": 1.73215,
      "diff_low": -0.105414,
      "estimate": 2.09691,
      "n": 152,
      "votes_millions": 36.2147,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 2.68895,
      "conf_high": 4.25204,
      "conf_low": 1.85835,
      "county_type": "Affluent suburban",
      "diff_all": 0.324753,
      "diff_high": 1.30911,
      "diff_low": -0.651701,
      "estimate": 3.01371,
      "n": 152,
      "votes_millions": 36.2147,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 1.30415,
      "conf_high": 3.783,
      "conf_low": 2.57073,
      "county_type": "All other",
      "diff_all": 1.86805,
      "diff_high": 2.71759,
      "diff_low": 0.793787,
      "estimate": 3.1722,
      "n": 2257,
      "votes_millions": 59.6657,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "all_mean": 2.68895,
      "conf_high": 3.86764,
      "conf_low": 2.99593,
      "county_type": "All other",
      "diff_all": 0.738492,
      "diff_high": 1.10097,
      "diff_low": 0.40633,
      "estimate": 3.42744,
      "n": 2257,
      "votes_millions": 59.6657,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    }
  ],
  "id": "county_types",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The groups are rules applied in the order given in the text, and each county is in one group; the thresholds are not fitted to the swing.",
    "Counties are assigned by their 2020 characteristics. Jackson County, Missouri and the eight Connecticut counties are left out. The data table also gives each group's mean minus the national swing, with its interval, and the all-county mean."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the later election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "category": "county_type",
    "colors": {
      "County-equal": "highlight",
      "Vote-weighted": "total"
    },
    "domain": [
      -7,
      3
    ],
    "format": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "group": "weighting",
    "hi": "diff_high",
    "lo": "diff_low",
    "orientation": "h",
    "sort": "data",
    "value": "diff_all",
    "valueLabel": "Mean county swing minus the all-county mean of the same weighting, 2020 to 2024 (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Mean county swing in the Democratic minus Republican margin minus the national swing, minus the mean over all counties of the same weighting, in percentage points, by county type, weighted by votes and counting each county once",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "county_type",
        "label": "County type"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "diff_all",
        "label": "Minus all-county mean (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "diff_low",
        "label": "Difference, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "diff_high",
        "label": "Difference, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Mean swing minus national swing (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "all_mean",
        "label": "All-county mean, same weighting (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Counties"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "votes_millions",
        "label": "Two-party votes, 2024 (millions)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "High-Hispanic counties swung {fact:td_hisp_w_abs} points further toward the Republicans than the average county, vote-weighted",
  "type": "bar",
  "width": "body"
}