{
  "alt": "Line chart of four correlations across six pairs of elections, with confidence bands for college and Hispanic share, in three views: vote-weighted, county-equal, and college share in both weightings. College share is above zero in every pair in both weightings; the vote-weighted interval for 2020 to 2024 and the county-equal interval for 2008 to 2012 include zero. The vote-weighted college correlation falls from {fact:r_college_1216_w} in 2012 to 2016 to {fact:r_college_2024_w} in 2020 to 2024, and the county-equal one from {fact:r_college_1620_u} in 2016 to 2020 to {fact:r_college_2024_u}. Hispanic and foreign-born share are positive from 2004 to 2008 through 2012 to 2016 and negative afterward, reaching {fact:r_hispanic_2024_w} and {fact:r_foreign_2024_w} in 2020 to 2024, vote-weighted. Black share peaks at {fact:r_black_0812_w} in 2008 to 2012, is {fact:r_black_1216_w} in 2012 to 2016, and is {fact:r_black_1620_w} in 2016 to 2020 and {fact:r_black_2024_w} in 2020 to 2024; counting each county once it is {fact:r_black_2024_u} in 2020 to 2024.",
  "caption": "The vote-weighted Hispanic and foreign-born lines cross zero between 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020, from {fact:r_hispanic_1216_w} to {fact:r_hispanic_1620_w} and from {fact:r_foreign_1216_w} to {fact:r_foreign_1620_w}, while the college line stays above zero and falls. Points above zero mean that counties with more of the characteristic swung further toward the Democrats than other counties did in that pair, and points below zero mean they swung further toward the Republicans. Each point is a Pearson correlation across matched counties, weighted by two-party votes in the later election in the first view and counting each county once in the second. Bands are 95% intervals from resampling states, drawn for college and Hispanic share only.",
  "data": [
    {
      "band_high": 0.574785,
      "band_low": 0.307427,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.574785,
      "conf_low": 0.307427,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": 0.444264,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.381055,
      "band_low": 0.109119,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.381055,
      "conf_low": 0.109119,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.246727,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.179484,
      "band_low": 0.0168926,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.179484,
      "conf_low": 0.0168926,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.0980116,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.781074,
      "band_low": 0.620529,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.781074,
      "conf_low": 0.620529,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.687886,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.407697,
      "band_low": 0.106679,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.407697,
      "conf_low": 0.106679,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": 0.245831,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.134211,
      "band_low": -0.0801583,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.134211,
      "conf_low": -0.0801583,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": 0.0214416,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.0914961,
      "band_low": -0.152197,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.0914961,
      "conf_low": -0.152197,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": -0.0349845,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.403507,
      "band_low": 0.071603,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.403507,
      "conf_low": 0.071603,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.268087,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.461413,
      "band_low": 0.166304,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.461413,
      "conf_low": 0.166304,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.334411,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.530085,
      "band_low": 0.307227,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.530085,
      "conf_low": 0.307227,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.445563,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": -0.199125,
      "band_low": -0.62103,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": -0.199125,
      "conf_low": -0.62103,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": -0.4765,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": -0.459424,
      "band_low": -0.758387,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": -0.459424,
      "conf_low": -0.758387,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": -0.659362,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.238483,
      "conf_low": -0.176886,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": 0.00858342,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.347944,
      "conf_low": 0.0523275,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.212424,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.564292,
      "conf_low": 0.279885,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.453299,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.694411,
      "conf_low": 0.439226,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.575221,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": -0.104306,
      "conf_low": -0.668835,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": -0.500309,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": -0.486996,
      "conf_low": -0.772058,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": -0.688242,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.152038,
      "conf_low": -0.0594609,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": 0.0490446,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.163913,
      "conf_low": -0.0871327,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.0317307,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.53006,
      "conf_low": 0.338585,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.427808,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.313459,
      "conf_low": 0.0336823,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.16488,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": -0.00153312,
      "conf_low": -0.290126,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": -0.126159,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.0873311,
      "conf_low": -0.247633,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": -0.0715494,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.492596,
      "band_low": 0.304274,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.492596,
      "conf_low": 0.304274,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": 0.401699,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.413141,
      "band_low": 0.259755,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.413141,
      "conf_low": 0.259755,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.341239,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.198924,
      "band_low": -0.013037,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.198924,
      "conf_low": -0.013037,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.0940383,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.659772,
      "band_low": 0.486335,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.659772,
      "conf_low": 0.486335,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.567239,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.59665,
      "band_low": 0.454163,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.59665,
      "conf_low": 0.454163,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": 0.510954,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.244384,
      "band_low": 0.0658647,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "conf_high": 0.244384,
      "conf_low": 0.0658647,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": 0.156232,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.0651938,
      "band_low": -0.21169,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.0651938,
      "conf_low": -0.21169,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": -0.090671,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.293364,
      "band_low": 0.105564,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.293364,
      "conf_low": 0.105564,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.190023,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.296311,
      "band_low": 0.112018,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.296311,
      "conf_low": 0.112018,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.195642,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.416668,
      "band_low": 0.2484,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.416668,
      "conf_low": 0.2484,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.334632,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": 0.101291,
      "band_low": -0.509639,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": 0.101291,
      "conf_low": -0.509639,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": -0.300653,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": -0.158511,
      "band_low": -0.508134,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "conf_high": -0.158511,
      "conf_low": -0.508134,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": -0.386415,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.161538,
      "conf_low": -0.0493066,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": 0.053524,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.325627,
      "conf_low": 0.145809,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": 0.235522,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.354342,
      "conf_low": 0.169725,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.261403,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.579986,
      "conf_low": 0.444,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.51382,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": 0.22288,
      "conf_low": -0.198848,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": -0.0324695,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "conf_high": -0.138974,
      "conf_low": -0.465832,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": -0.343837,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.0410936,
      "conf_low": -0.209646,
      "election": 2004,
      "estimate": -0.0787814,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2000–04",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.0887066,
      "conf_low": -0.169658,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": -0.037068,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2004–08",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.58603,
      "conf_low": 0.360322,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": 0.487569,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2008–12",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": 0.377482,
      "conf_low": 0.204096,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 0.289903,
      "n": 3112,
      "pair": "2012–16",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": -0.0154279,
      "conf_low": -0.261989,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": -0.117895,
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "band_high": null,
      "band_low": null,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "conf_high": -0.138999,
      "conf_low": -0.361738,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": -0.240237,
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    }
  ],
  "id": "correlation_by_pair",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.",
    "The pair 2020 to 2024 leaves out the eight Connecticut counties, which have no county characteristics for 2020, and Jackson County, Missouri, whose swing is not its own."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the later election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "2000–04",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2004
      },
      {
        "label": "2004–08",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2008
      },
      {
        "label": "2008–12",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2012
      },
      {
        "label": "2012–16",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2016
      },
      {
        "label": "2016–20",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2020
      },
      {
        "label": "2020–24",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2024
      },
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Black share": "cat6",
      "College share": "cat1",
      "Foreign-born share": "cat3",
      "Hispanic share": "cat7"
    },
    "hi": "band_high",
    "lo": "band_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "characteristic",
    "x": "election",
    "xDomain": [
      2002,
      2026
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Later election of the pair (each dashed rule is labeled with its pair)",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -1,
      1
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "yLabel": "Correlation of the characteristic with county swing"
  },
  "subtitle": "Correlation between a county characteristic at the start of a pair of presidential elections and the county's swing in the two-party margin, {fact:n_pairs} pairs from 2000 to 2004 through 2020 to 2024",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "pair",
        "label": "Pair of elections"
      },
      {
        "key": "characteristic",
        "label": "Characteristic"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Correlation"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Vote-weighted, the college correlation fell after 2016 while the Hispanic and foreign-born correlations turned negative",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes",
      "label": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once, the college correlation holds through 2016 to 2020 and falls only in 2020 to 2024, from {fact:r_college_1620_u} to {fact:r_college_2024_u}. The Hispanic correlation still changes sign in 2016 to 2020, from {fact:r_hispanic_1216_u} to {fact:r_hispanic_1620_u}, and the foreign-born correlation is {fact:r_foreign_1620_u} in 2016 to 2020 and {fact:r_foreign_2024_u} in 2020 to 2024. Bands are 95% intervals from resampling states, drawn for college and Hispanic share only.",
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal",
      "label": "County-equal",
      "title": "With each county counted once, the college correlation falls in 2020 to 2024 and not in 2016 to 2020"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The vote-weighted line falls between 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020, and the county-equal line between 2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2024. College share only, with the solid line vote-weighted and the dashed line counting each county once; bands are 95% intervals from resampling states.",
      "filter": {
        "characteristic": "College share"
      },
      "id": "college",
      "label": "College share, both weightings",
      "spec": {
        "colors": {
          "County-equal": "highlight",
          "Vote-weighted": "total"
        },
        "dashed": [
          "County-equal"
        ],
        "series": "weighting"
      },
      "title": "The pair in which the college correlation falls depends on the weighting"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}