{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with four rows, one per county characteristic, and an open and a filled dot per row, in four views (two pairs of elections, each vote-weighted and county-equal). In the default view, 2020 to 2024 vote-weighted, college share is {fact:r_college_2024_w} alone and {fact:b_college_2024_w} with the other shares held fixed; Hispanic share is {fact:r_hispanic_2024_w} alone and {fact:b_hispanic_2024_w} with the others held fixed; foreign-born share is {fact:r_foreign_2024_w} and {fact:b_foreign_2024_w}; Black share is {fact:r_black_2024_w} and {fact:b_black_2024_w}.",
  "caption": "In 2020 to 2024, vote-weighted, college share goes from {fact:r_college_2024_w} alone to {fact:b_college_2024_w} with the other three held fixed, and Hispanic share from {fact:r_hispanic_2024_w} to {fact:b_hispanic_2024_w}; foreign-born share is {fact:r_foreign_2024_w} alone and {fact:b_foreign_2024_w} with the others held fixed. The open dot is the correlation of a characteristic with the county swing by itself, and the filled dot is its standardized coefficient when all four are in one regression; the last column is the filled dot minus the open dot. Intervals are 95% intervals: bootstrap over states for correlations, errors clustered by state for coefficients.",
  "data": [
    {
      "alone": 0.510954,
      "alone_high": 0.59665,
      "alone_low": 0.454163,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": 0.50799,
      "together_high": 0.58613,
      "together_low": 0.42985,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.300653,
      "alone_high": 0.101291,
      "alone_low": -0.509639,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": -0.296275,
      "together_high": 0.00798377,
      "together_low": -0.600534,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.0324695,
      "alone_high": 0.22288,
      "alone_low": -0.198848,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": -0.0215086,
      "together_high": 0.151804,
      "together_low": -0.194822,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.117895,
      "alone_high": -0.0154279,
      "alone_low": -0.261989,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": -0.103123,
      "together_high": -0.0363596,
      "together_low": -0.169887,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": 0.156232,
      "alone_high": 0.244384,
      "alone_low": 0.0658647,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": 0.244199,
      "together_high": 0.337305,
      "together_low": 0.151093,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.386415,
      "alone_high": -0.158511,
      "alone_low": -0.508134,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": -0.219946,
      "together_high": -0.0780772,
      "together_low": -0.361814,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.343837,
      "alone_high": -0.138974,
      "alone_low": -0.465832,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": -0.290078,
      "together_high": -0.10295,
      "together_low": -0.477207,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.240237,
      "alone_high": -0.138999,
      "alone_low": -0.361738,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": -0.241597,
      "together_high": -0.129082,
      "together_low": -0.354113,
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "alone": 0.245831,
      "alone_high": 0.407697,
      "alone_low": 0.106679,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": 0.556996,
      "together_high": 0.649991,
      "together_low": 0.464001,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.4765,
      "alone_high": -0.199125,
      "alone_low": -0.62103,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": 0.0763724,
      "together_high": 0.313236,
      "together_low": -0.160491,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.500309,
      "alone_high": -0.104306,
      "alone_low": -0.668835,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": -0.772573,
      "together_high": -0.552391,
      "together_low": -0.992754,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.126159,
      "alone_high": -0.00153312,
      "alone_low": -0.290126,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "n": 3113,
      "pair": "2016–20",
      "together": -0.0880578,
      "together_high": -0.0132166,
      "together_low": -0.162899,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": 0.0214416,
      "alone_high": 0.134211,
      "alone_low": -0.0801583,
      "characteristic": "College share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": 0.307432,
      "together_high": 0.37512,
      "together_low": 0.239745,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.659362,
      "alone_high": -0.459424,
      "alone_low": -0.758387,
      "characteristic": "Hispanic share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": -0.180565,
      "together_high": -0.0132909,
      "together_low": -0.347838,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.688242,
      "alone_high": -0.486996,
      "alone_low": -0.772058,
      "characteristic": "Foreign-born share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": -0.686738,
      "together_high": -0.440332,
      "together_low": -0.933145,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "alone": -0.0715494,
      "alone_high": 0.0873311,
      "alone_low": -0.247633,
      "characteristic": "Black share",
      "n": 3102,
      "pair": "2020–24",
      "together": -0.044947,
      "together_high": 0.0734904,
      "together_low": -0.163384,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    }
  ],
  "id": "correlation_and_model",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods.",
    "Each characteristic is standardized with the weighted mean and standard deviation of the weighting shown, so a coefficient from a regression on one characteristic equals its correlation. The four characteristics are correlated across counties, so a coefficient depends on which others are in the regression. Non-Hispanic white share is not in the regression."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the later election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "hi1": "alone_high",
    "hi2": "together_high",
    "label1": "Correlation, characteristic alone",
    "label2": "Coefficient with all four characteristics",
    "lo1": "alone_low",
    "lo2": "together_low",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "alone",
    "x2": "together",
    "xDomain": [
      -1,
      1
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Correlation or standardized coefficient",
    "y": "characteristic"
  },
  "subtitle": "Correlation of each characteristic with the county swing, alone and as a standardized coefficient in one regression on the four characteristics; two pairs of elections and two weightings",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "characteristic",
        "label": "Characteristic"
      },
      {
        "key": "pair",
        "label": "Pair"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "alone",
        "label": "Correlation alone"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "alone_low",
        "label": "Alone, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "alone_high",
        "label": "Alone, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "together",
        "label": "Coefficient, all four"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "together_low",
        "label": "Together, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "together_high",
        "label": "Together, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "With the other three shares held fixed, college share tracks the 2020 to 2024 swing although its vote-weighted correlation alone is near zero",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "views": [
    {
      "caption": "In 2020 to 2024, vote-weighted, college share goes from {fact:r_college_2024_w} alone to {fact:b_college_2024_w} with the other three held fixed, and Hispanic share from {fact:r_hispanic_2024_w} to {fact:b_hispanic_2024_w}; foreign-born share is {fact:r_foreign_2024_w} alone and {fact:b_foreign_2024_w} with the others held fixed. The open dot is the correlation of a characteristic with the county swing by itself, and the filled dot is its standardized coefficient when all four are in one regression; the last column is the filled dot minus the open dot. Intervals are 95% intervals: bootstrap over states for correlations, errors clustered by state for coefficients.",
      "filter": {
        "pair": "2020–24",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "2020_24_vote_weighted",
      "label": "2020–24, vote-weighted",
      "title": "With the other three shares held fixed, college share tracks the 2020 to 2024 swing although its vote-weighted correlation alone is near zero"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once in 2020 to 2024, Hispanic share goes from {fact:r_hispanic_2024_u} alone to {fact:b_hispanic_2024_u} with the others fixed, and Black share from {fact:r_black_2024_u} to {fact:b_black_2024_u}. The open dot is the correlation of a characteristic with the county swing by itself, and the filled dot is its standardized coefficient when all four are in one regression; the last column is the filled dot minus the open dot. Intervals are 95% intervals: bootstrap over states for correlations, errors clustered by state for coefficients.",
      "filter": {
        "pair": "2020–24",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "2020_24_county_equal",
      "label": "2020–24, county-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, the 2020 to 2024 Hispanic coefficient is smaller in size than its correlation and the Black coefficient is unchanged"
    },
    {
      "caption": "In 2016 to 2020, vote-weighted, college share goes from {fact:r_college_1620_w} alone to {fact:b_college_1620_w} and Hispanic share from {fact:r_hispanic_1620_w} to {fact:b_hispanic_1620_w}. The open dot is the correlation of a characteristic with the county swing by itself, and the filled dot is its standardized coefficient when all four are in one regression; the last column is the filled dot minus the open dot. Intervals are 95% intervals: bootstrap over states for correlations, errors clustered by state for coefficients.",
      "filter": {
        "pair": "2016–20",
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "2016_20_vote_weighted",
      "label": "2016–20, vote-weighted",
      "title": "In 2016 to 2020, vote-weighted, the college coefficient is larger than its correlation and the Hispanic coefficient is near zero"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once in 2016 to 2020, college share goes from {fact:r_college_1620_u} alone to {fact:b_college_1620_u} and Hispanic share from {fact:r_hispanic_1620_u} to {fact:b_hispanic_1620_u}. The open dot is the correlation of a characteristic with the county swing by itself, and the filled dot is its standardized coefficient when all four are in one regression; the last column is the filled dot minus the open dot. Intervals are 95% intervals: bootstrap over states for correlations, errors clustered by state for coefficients.",
      "filter": {
        "pair": "2016–20",
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "2016_20_county_equal",
      "label": "2016–20, county-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, the 2016 to 2020 coefficients are close to the correlations"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}