{
  "alt": "Dot chart with three panels, one for each pair of elections, and three rows in each panel for White, Black and Hispanic respondents, with intervals. In 2020 to 2024 the margin changed by {fact:ces_hispanic_2024} for Hispanic respondents, {fact:ces_black_2024} for Black respondents and {fact:ces_white_2024} for white respondents, whose interval includes zero; in 2012 to 2016 it changed by {fact:ces_white_1216} for white respondents and {fact:ces_black_1216} for Black respondents. In the second view, with other weights, the 2020 to 2024 changes are {fact:cesv_hispanic_2024} for Hispanic respondents and {fact:cesv_black_2024} for Black respondents.",
  "caption": "Dots to the left of zero are a fall in the Democratic margin. Among Hispanic respondents the margin changed by {fact:ces_hispanic_2024} points in 2020 to 2024, among Black respondents by {fact:ces_black_2024} and among white respondents by {fact:ces_white_2024}; in 2012 to 2016 it changed by {fact:ces_white_1216} among white respondents and {fact:ces_black_1216} among Black respondents. Each dot is the difference between two waves of the same survey, and the respondents in the two waves are different people. The default view uses the year-specific weight and the second view shows how much the estimates depend on the weight. Asian and other respondents are in the data table and not plotted, because their intervals are wide.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": -4.77951,
      "conf_low": -9.14503,
      "estimate": -6.96227,
      "n": 61083,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "White",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.06938,
      "conf_low": -9.94381,
      "estimate": -6.5066,
      "n": 6938,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Black",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.2621,
      "conf_low": -3.61047,
      "estimate": 4.32581,
      "n": 6340,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Hispanic",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.952,
      "conf_low": -3.03061,
      "estimate": 10.9607,
      "n": 1502,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Asian",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.65053,
      "conf_low": -17.8681,
      "estimate": -7.10881,
      "n": 2817,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Other",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.15613,
      "conf_low": 0.330247,
      "estimate": 2.24319,
      "n": 63584,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "White",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.40568,
      "conf_low": -6.13721,
      "estimate": -2.36577,
      "n": 7967,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Black",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.47863,
      "conf_low": -12.9344,
      "estimate": -5.72789,
      "n": 7866,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Hispanic",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.07169,
      "conf_low": -21.9664,
      "estimate": -12.5191,
      "n": 2208,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Asian",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.31004,
      "conf_low": -12.2631,
      "estimate": -2.47652,
      "n": 3138,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Other",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.197059,
      "conf_low": -3.97956,
      "estimate": -1.89125,
      "n": 64714,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "White",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -14.0178,
      "conf_low": -24.0596,
      "estimate": -19.0387,
      "n": 7822,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Black",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -15.507,
      "conf_low": -30.4997,
      "estimate": -23.0034,
      "n": 7642,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Hispanic",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.41711,
      "conf_low": -21.0999,
      "estimate": -9.84138,
      "n": 2210,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Asian",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.88107,
      "conf_low": -17.2476,
      "estimate": -6.68327,
      "n": 3492,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Other",
      "weights": "Year-specific weight",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.16749,
      "conf_low": -6.66534,
      "estimate": -4.41641,
      "n": 61083,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "White",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.04805,
      "conf_low": -10.4743,
      "estimate": -6.76117,
      "n": 6938,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Black",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.3457,
      "conf_low": 1.94177,
      "estimate": 10.1437,
      "n": 6340,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Hispanic",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.3537,
      "conf_low": -3.27717,
      "estimate": 11.0383,
      "n": 1502,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Asian",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.44079,
      "conf_low": -13.7166,
      "estimate": -2.63791,
      "n": 2817,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Other",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2012–16"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.68728,
      "conf_low": 1.50751,
      "estimate": 3.5974,
      "n": 63583,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "White",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0908243,
      "conf_low": -8.64651,
      "estimate": -4.27785,
      "n": 7967,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Black",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.95929,
      "conf_low": -12.2781,
      "estimate": -4.65939,
      "n": 7866,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Hispanic",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.02227,
      "conf_low": -22.0485,
      "estimate": -11.5354,
      "n": 2208,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Asian",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.8259,
      "conf_low": -6.52196,
      "estimate": 4.65195,
      "n": 3138,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Other",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2016–20"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.93325,
      "conf_low": -6.24015,
      "estimate": -4.0867,
      "n": 53387,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "White",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.31999,
      "conf_low": -19.4665,
      "estimate": -13.8932,
      "n": 5828,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Black",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.61337,
      "conf_low": -24.1282,
      "estimate": -14.8708,
      "n": 5294,
      "plotted": true,
      "race": "Hispanic",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.41607,
      "conf_low": -15.6101,
      "estimate": -3.09701,
      "n": 1408,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Asian",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2020–24"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.1577,
      "conf_low": -3.99515,
      "estimate": 8.08129,
      "n": 2777,
      "plotted": false,
      "race": "Other",
      "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024",
      "window": "2020–24"
    }
  ],
  "id": "ces_by_race",
  "notes": [
    "The Cooperative Election Study is an opt-in online panel with post-stratification weights, so the intervals use the Kish effective sample size and assume a weighted simple random sample. They describe sampling variation among its respondents and leave out how those respondents came to join the panel. The year-specific weight is the pre-election weight, applied here to a post-election vote question, and it is the only weight present in all four waves.",
    "Respondents are those who reported voting for the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate, so people who did not vote and people who voted for others are left out. Race is self-reported. A dot compares two separate samples of respondents, so it does not follow the same people over time."
  ],
  "source": "Cooperative Election Study, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 waves; weighted by the year-specific weight, and in the second view by the post-election weight (2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020) or the validated-voter weight (2020 to 2024)",
  "spec": {
    "facet": "window",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No change",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -35,
      20
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Change in Democratic minus Republican margin (points)",
    "y": "race"
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the Democratic minus Republican margin among White, Black and Hispanic respondents who reported a major-party presidential vote, in percentage points, with one panel for each pair of elections",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "race",
        "label": "Race"
      },
      {
        "key": "window",
        "label": "Pair of elections"
      },
      {
        "key": "weights",
        "label": "Weight"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Change in margin (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents, both waves combined"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The Democratic margin fell among Hispanic and Black respondents in 2020 to 2024 and among white and Black respondents in 2012 to 2016",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "plotted": true,
        "weights": "Year-specific weight"
      },
      "id": "main",
      "label": "Default weight"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The same changes with the post-election weight for 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020 and the validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024. In 2020 to 2024 the margin changed by {fact:cesv_hispanic_2024} points among Hispanic respondents, {fact:cesv_black_2024} among Black respondents and {fact:cesv_white_2024} among white respondents; in 2012 to 2016 it changed by {fact:cesv_white_1216} among white and {fact:cesv_black_1216} among Black respondents. The file has no post-election weight for 2024, and the validated-voter weight covers only respondents matched to a voter file.",
      "filter": {
        "plotted": true,
        "weights": "Post-election weight, validated-voter weight for 2020 to 2024"
      },
      "id": "alt",
      "label": "Other weights",
      "title": "With the post-election and validated-voter weights, the margin still fell among Hispanic and Black respondents in 2020 to 2024, by less"
    }
  ],
  "width": "body"
}