{
  "aff_ba_cut": {
    "display": "35%",
    "estimand": "definition of an affluent suburban county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "threshold for affluent suburban counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults 25 and older",
    "value": 35,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "aff_inc_cut": {
    "display": "75,000",
    "estimand": "definition of an affluent suburban county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "threshold for affluent suburban counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "dollars of median household income, 2024 prices",
    "value": 75000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "aff_rural_cut": {
    "display": "25%",
    "estimand": "definition of an affluent suburban county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "threshold for affluent suburban counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents in rural areas",
    "value": 25,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "atlanta_min_rel": {
    "display": "+3.4",
    "estimand": "smallest county swing minus national swing among the five counties",
    "n": 5,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett and Henry counties, Georgia",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 3.37608,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "b2_hispanic_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.42,
      -0.07
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.24",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Hispanic share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on Hispanic share and foreign-born share only",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.242451,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b2_hispanic_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.5,
      -0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.35",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Hispanic share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on Hispanic share and foreign-born share only",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.348742,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_black_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.35,
      -0.13
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.24",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Black share in a county-equal regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.241597,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "b_black_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.16,
      0.07
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.04",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Black share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.044947,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_college_1620_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.43,
      0.59
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.51",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a county-equal regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": 0.50799,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "b_college_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.46,
      0.65
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.56",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": 0.556996,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_college_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.15,
      0.34
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.24",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a county-equal regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": 0.244199,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "b_college_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.24,
      0.38
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.31",
    "estimand": "coefficient on college share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": 0.307432,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_foreign_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.99,
      -0.55
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.77",
    "estimand": "coefficient on foreign-born share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.772573,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_foreign_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.48,
      -0.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.29",
    "estimand": "coefficient on foreign-born share in a county-equal regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.290078,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "b_foreign_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.93,
      -0.44
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.69",
    "estimand": "coefficient on foreign-born share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.686738,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_hispanic_1620_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.6,
      0.01
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.30",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Hispanic share in a county-equal regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.296275,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "b_hispanic_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.16,
      0.31
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.08",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Hispanic share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": 0.0763724,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "b_hispanic_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.36,
      -0.08
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.22",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Hispanic share in a county-equal regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.219946,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "b_hispanic_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.35,
      -0.01
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.18",
    "estimand": "coefficient on Hispanic share in a vote-weighted regression of the county swing on the four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of swing per standard deviation of the characteristic",
    "value": -0.180565,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "band": {
    "display": "5",
    "estimand": "definition of near the national swing",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2024",
    "population": "half-width of the band around the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 5,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_cut": {
    "display": "250,000",
    "estimand": "definition of a large county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "threshold for a large county",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes in the later election",
    "value": 250000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_n_2024": {
    "display": "134",
    "estimand": "count of large counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 134,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "big_share_2024": {
    "display": "46.3%",
    "estimand": "share of the later election's two-party votes cast in large counties",
    "n": 134,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes",
    "value": 46.2886,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "black_cut": {
    "display": "25%",
    "estimand": "definition of a high-Black county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "threshold for high-Black counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 25,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "black_ex_atlanta": {
    "display": "+1.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 374,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties without Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett and Henry counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.78868,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "black_ex_kings": {
    "display": "+2.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 378,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties without Kings County",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.54012,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "black_ex_three": {
    "display": "+2.9",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 376,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties without Kings, Wayne and Essex counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.94071,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "black_top10_neg": {
    "display": "2",
    "estimand": "count with a swing below the national swing",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "the ten high-Black counties with the most votes",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 2,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ces_black_1216": {
    "ci": [
      -9.9,
      -3.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−6.5",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 6938,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "black respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -6.5066,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_black_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -24.1,
      -14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−19.0",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 7822,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "black respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -19.0387,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_black_m2020": {
    "display": "+82.9",
    "estimand": "weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 3898,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "black respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "Democratic minus Republican margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 82.8636,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_black_m2024": {
    "display": "+63.8",
    "estimand": "weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 4069,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "black respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "Democratic minus Republican margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 63.8249,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_hispanic_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -30.5,
      -15.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−23.0",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 7642,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "hispanic respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -23.0034,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_hispanic_m2020": {
    "display": "+32.5",
    "estimand": "weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 3788,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "hispanic respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "Democratic minus Republican margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 32.4735,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_hispanic_m2024": {
    "display": "+9.5",
    "estimand": "weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 4078,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "hispanic respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "Democratic minus Republican margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 9.47017,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_white_1216": {
    "ci": [
      -9.1,
      -4.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−7.0",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 61083,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "white respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -6.96227,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_white_1620": {
    "ci": [
      0.3,
      4.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.2",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 63584,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "white respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.24319,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "ces_white_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -4,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−1.9",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 64714,
    "note": "Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "white respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -1.89125,
    "weights": "CES year-specific weight"
  },
  "cesv_black_1216": {
    "ci": [
      -10.5,
      -3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−6.8",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 6938,
    "note": "Sensitivity to the weight. Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "black respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -6.76117,
    "weights": "CES post-election weight"
  },
  "cesv_black_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -19.5,
      -8.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−13.9",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 5828,
    "note": "Sensitivity to the weight. Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "black respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -13.8932,
    "weights": "CES validated-voter weight"
  },
  "cesv_hispanic_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -24.1,
      -5.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−14.9",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 5294,
    "note": "Sensitivity to the weight. Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "hispanic respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -14.8708,
    "weights": "CES validated-voter weight"
  },
  "cesv_white_1216": {
    "ci": [
      -6.7,
      -2.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−4.4",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 61083,
    "note": "Sensitivity to the weight. Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "white respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -4.41641,
    "weights": "CES post-election weight"
  },
  "cesv_white_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -6.2,
      -1.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−4.1",
    "estimand": "difference between two waves in the weighted Democratic minus Republican margin among presidential voters",
    "n": 53387,
    "note": "Sensitivity to the weight. Interval: 95% normal interval on the Kish effective sample size, model-based.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "white respondents who reported voting for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "change in the two-party Democratic margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -4.0867,
    "weights": "CES validated-voter weight"
  },
  "county_ba_mean": {
    "display": "21.7%",
    "estimand": "mean across counties of the bachelor's degree share in 2016",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "value": 21.6987,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "diff_cut": {
    "display": "0.2",
    "estimand": "definition of a large difference",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "cut-off for a large difference between weightings",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference between two correlations",
    "value": 0.2,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "essex_rel": {
    "display": "−4.2",
    "estimand": "county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "Essex County, New Jersey",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -4.2006,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_all_fb_min_2024": {
    "display": "9.0%",
    "estimand": "smallest foreign-born share among the ten counties",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "the ten counties furthest below the national swing, with no minimum on votes",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 9.03883,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_all_hisp_min_2024": {
    "display": "28.0%",
    "estimand": "smallest Hispanic share among the ten counties",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "the ten counties furthest below the national swing, with no minimum on votes",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 27.9513,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_high_georgia_2024": {
    "display": "5",
    "estimand": "count in Georgia",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "the ten counties with 50,000 or more votes furthest above the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 5,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_high_utva_2016": {
    "display": "7",
    "estimand": "count in Utah or Virginia",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "the ten counties with 50,000 or more votes furthest above the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 7,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_low_fb_min_2024": {
    "display": "22.9%",
    "estimand": "smallest foreign-born share among the ten counties",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "the ten counties with 50,000 or more votes furthest below the national swing",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 22.9006,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_low_hisp_min_2024": {
    "display": "28.0%",
    "estimand": "smallest Hispanic share among the ten counties",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "the ten counties with 50,000 or more votes furthest below the national swing",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 27.9513,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_low_rust_2016": {
    "display": "8",
    "estimand": "count in Pennsylvania, Ohio or Michigan",
    "n": 10,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "the ten counties with 50,000 or more votes furthest below the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 8,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_min_votes": {
    "display": "50,000",
    "estimand": "minimum size of a county in the ranking",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2024",
    "population": "counties named among the furthest above or below the national swing",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes in the later election",
    "value": 50000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "ext_n_2024": {
    "display": "584",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with 50,000 or more two-party votes in the later election",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 584,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_ba_20_40_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      2.7,
      3.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.3",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1528,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 20 to under 40 percent college in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 3.30497,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_ba_20_40_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      2.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.1",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1528,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 20 to under 40 percent college in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.08354,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_ba_40p_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      2.1,
      4.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.2",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 228,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 40 percent or more college in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 3.18305,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_ba_40p_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.4,
      3.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 228,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 40 percent or more college in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.6884,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_ba_lt20_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      1.4,
      2.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.9",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1346,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties under 20 percent college in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.90594,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_ba_lt20_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.2,
      2.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1346,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties under 20 percent college in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.43155,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_cut10": {
    "display": "10%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "Hispanic share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_cut15": {
    "display": "15%",
    "estimand": "definition of an alternative high-Hispanic county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "alternative Hispanic share cut-off for high-Hispanic counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 15,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_cut20ba": {
    "display": "20%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "college share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "value": 20,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_cut40ba": {
    "display": "40%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "college share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "value": 40,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_cut50": {
    "display": "50%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "Hispanic share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 50,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_hisp_10_25_n": {
    "display": "503",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 10 to under 25 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 503,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_hisp_10_25_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      2.1,
      3.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.9",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 503,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 10 to under 25 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.94931,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_hisp_10_25_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.3,
      3.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 503,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 10 to under 25 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.66198,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_hisp_25_50_n": {
    "display": "211",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 25 to under 50 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 211,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_hisp_25_50_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.7,
      1.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.0",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 211,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 25 to under 50 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.03892,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_hisp_25_50_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      -3.6,
      -0.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−1.9",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 211,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 25 to under 50 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -1.88449,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_hisp_50p_n": {
    "display": "103",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 50 percent or more Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 103,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_hisp_50p_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      -7.5,
      -2.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−3.9",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 50 percent or more Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -3.91045,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_hisp_50p_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      -12.2,
      -5.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−7.6",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 50 percent or more Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -7.58599,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_hisp_50p_swing_w": {
    "ci": [
      -18.3,
      -11.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−13.7",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the county swing",
    "n": 103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 50 percent or more Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -13.6827,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "g_hisp_lt10_n": {
    "display": "2,285",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties under 10 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 2285,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "g_hisp_lt10_rel_u": {
    "ci": [
      2.6,
      3.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.1",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 2285,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties under 10 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 3.08148,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "g_hisp_lt10_rel_w": {
    "ci": [
      2.8,
      3.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.3",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 2285,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties under 10 percent Hispanic in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 3.33208,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "henry_rel": {
    "display": "+15.2",
    "estimand": "county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "Henry County, Georgia",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 15.248,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "hisp_cut": {
    "display": "25%",
    "estimand": "definition of a high-Hispanic county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "threshold for high-Hispanic counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 25,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "kings_black": {
    "display": "28.0%",
    "estimand": "non-Hispanic Black share of residents",
    "n": 1,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "Kings County, New York",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 27.958,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "kings_rel": {
    "display": "−5.2",
    "estimand": "county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "Kings County, New York",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -5.16923,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "map_within_1216": {
    "display": "24.6%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of counties shown",
    "value": 24.5823,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "map_within_2024": {
    "display": "75.6%",
    "estimand": "share of counties whose swing is within the band of the national swing",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of counties shown",
    "value": 75.5949,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "max_diff": {
    "display": "0.47",
    "estimand": "largest absolute difference between the vote-weighted and county-equal correlation",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "four characteristics in six pairs",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "difference between two correlations",
    "value": 0.467839,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_aff_alts": {
    "display": "6",
    "estimand": "count of alternative sets",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "alternative college, income and rural cut-offs for affluent suburban counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "sets of cut-offs",
    "value": 6,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_analysis_2024": {
    "display": "3,102",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the correlations and regressions",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3102,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_black_alts": {
    "display": "6",
    "estimand": "count of alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "alternative non-Hispanic Black share cut-offs from 15 to 50 percent",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "cut-offs",
    "value": 6,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_cells": {
    "display": "24",
    "estimand": "count of pairs of vote-weighted and county-equal correlations",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "four characteristics in six pairs",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlations",
    "value": 24,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_diff_02": {
    "display": "4",
    "estimand": "count of characteristic-pair cells where the two weightings differ by more than 0.2",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "four characteristics in six pairs",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlations",
    "value": 4,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_matched_2024": {
    "display": "3,111",
    "estimand": "count of counties matched on FIPS",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3111,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_no_comp_2024": {
    "display": "8",
    "estimand": "matched counties with no 2020 county characteristics (the eight Connecticut counties)",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 8,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_opposite": {
    "display": "2",
    "estimand": "count of cells where the two weightings have opposite signs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "four characteristics in six pairs",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlations",
    "value": 2,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_pairs": {
    "display": "6",
    "estimand": "count of pairs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "elections from 2000 to 2024",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "pairs of consecutive presidential elections",
    "value": 6,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "nat_swing_2024": {
    "display": "−6.1",
    "estimand": "change in the summed two-party margin of the matched counties",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -6.09671,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "r2_all_1216_u": {
    "display": "58.3%",
    "estimand": "county-equal R-squared of the regression of the county swing on all four characteristics",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.583237,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r2_all_1216_w": {
    "display": "70.6%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the regression of the county swing on all four characteristics",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.706219,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r2_all_2024_u": {
    "display": "28.1%",
    "estimand": "county-equal R-squared of the regression of the county swing on all four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.280922,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r2_all_2024_w": {
    "display": "60.2%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the regression of the county swing on all four characteristics",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.601507,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r2_college_1216_u": {
    "display": "32.2%",
    "estimand": "county-equal R-squared of the regression of the county swing on college share alone",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.32176,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r2_college_1216_w": {
    "display": "47.3%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the regression of the county swing on college share alone",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.473188,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r2_college_2024_u": {
    "display": "2.4%",
    "estimand": "county-equal R-squared of the regression of the county swing on college share alone",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.0244085,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r2_college_2024_w": {
    "display": "0.0%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted R-squared of the regression of the county swing on college share alone",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "share of the variance of county swings",
    "value": 0.000459743,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_black_0812_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.34,
      0.53
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.43",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the non-Hispanic Black share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.427808,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_black_1216_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.03,
      0.31
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.16",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the non-Hispanic Black share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.16488,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_black_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.29,
      0
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.13",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the non-Hispanic Black share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.126159,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_black_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.36,
      -0.14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.24",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the non-Hispanic Black share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.240237,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_black_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.25,
      0.09
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.07",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the non-Hispanic Black share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.0715494,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_college_0812_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.01,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.09",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.0940383,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_college_1216_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.49,
      0.66
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.57",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.567239,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_college_1216_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.62,
      0.78
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.69",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.687886,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_college_1620_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.45,
      0.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.51",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.510954,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_college_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.11,
      0.41
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.25",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.245831,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_college_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.07,
      0.24
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.16",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.156232,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_college_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.08,
      0.13
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.02",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.0214416,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_foreign_1216_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.44,
      0.69
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.58",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the foreign-born share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.575221,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_foreign_1620_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      0.22
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.03",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the foreign-born share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.0324695,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_foreign_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.67,
      -0.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.50",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the foreign-born share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.500309,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_foreign_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.47,
      -0.14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.34",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the foreign-born share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.343837,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_foreign_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.77,
      -0.49
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.69",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the foreign-born share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.688242,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_hispanic_1216_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.25,
      0.42
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.33",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the Hispanic share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.334632,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_hispanic_1216_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.31,
      0.53
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.45",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the Hispanic share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.445563,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_hispanic_1620_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.51,
      0.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.30",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the Hispanic share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.300653,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_hispanic_1620_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.62,
      -0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.48",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the Hispanic share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.4765,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "r_hispanic_2024_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.51,
      -0.16
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.39",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the Hispanic share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.386415,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "r_hispanic_2024_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.76,
      -0.46
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.66",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the Hispanic share of residents at the start of the pair and the county swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.659362,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_1216": {
    "display": "10.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 10.81,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sd_w_2024": {
    "display": "4.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of county swings about their weighted mean",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns in both elections of the pair, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 4.46754,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sens_aff_max_du": {
    "display": "+0.6",
    "estimand": "highest of the county-equal differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties under the alternative college, income and rural cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.643986,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sens_aff_max_dw": {
    "display": "+1.0",
    "estimand": "highest of the vote-weighted differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties under the alternative college, income and rural cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.988032,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sens_aff_min_du": {
    "display": "−0.8",
    "estimand": "lowest of the county-equal differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties under the alternative college, income and rural cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -0.796316,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sens_aff_min_dw": {
    "display": "0.0",
    "estimand": "lowest of the vote-weighted differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties under the alternative college, income and rural cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.0106038,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sens_black_max_du": {
    "display": "−1.4",
    "estimand": "highest of the county-equal differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties under the alternative non-Hispanic Black share cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -1.41662,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sens_black_max_dw": {
    "display": "+1.9",
    "estimand": "highest of the vote-weighted differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties under the alternative non-Hispanic Black share cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.86368,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sens_black_min_du": {
    "display": "−2.0",
    "estimand": "lowest of the county-equal differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties under the alternative non-Hispanic Black share cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -1.96112,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sens_black_min_dw": {
    "display": "+0.8",
    "estimand": "lowest of the vote-weighted differences between the group mean of county swing minus national swing and the all-county mean, across the alternative cut-offs",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Black counties under the alternative non-Hispanic Black share cut-offs",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.818255,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sens_hisp15_du": {
    "ci": [
      -2.9,
      -1.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.1",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 555,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 15 percent Hispanic or more in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -2.0569,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sens_hisp15_dw": {
    "ci": [
      -4.2,
      -2.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−3.1",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 555,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties 15 percent Hispanic or more in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -3.09902,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "sz_college_2024_big": {
    "ci": [
      0,
      0.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.23",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more and the county swing within the group",
    "n": 134,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes in the later election, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.231728,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sz_college_2024_small": {
    "ci": [
      0.15,
      0.29
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.22",
    "estimand": "county-equal correlation between the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more and the county swing within the group",
    "n": 2968,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with fewer two-party votes than that in the later election, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.222924,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sz_mean_college_2024_big": {
    "display": "40.7%",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean college share",
    "n": 134,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "big counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "value": 40.6554,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sz_mean_college_2024_small": {
    "display": "22.8%",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean college share",
    "n": 2968,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "small counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "value": 22.8445,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sz_mean_swing_2024_big": {
    "display": "−5.5",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean county swing",
    "n": 134,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "big counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -5.53471,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sz_mean_swing_2024_small": {
    "display": "−3.3",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean county swing",
    "n": 2968,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "small counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "change in the two-party margin, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -3.31173,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "t_aff_n": {
    "display": "152",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 152,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "t_all_u": {
    "ci": [
      2.2,
      3.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.7",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the analysis",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.68895,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "t_all_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.2,
      2.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.3",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the analysis",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.30415,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "t_black_n": {
    "display": "379",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-black counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 379,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "t_black_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.6,
      3.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.2",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 379,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-black counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 2.17125,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "t_hisp_n": {
    "display": "314",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-hispanic counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 314,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "td_aff_u": {
    "ci": [
      -0.7,
      1.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.3",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 152,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.324753,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "td_aff_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.1,
      1.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.8",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 152,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "affluent suburban counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.792756,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "td_black_u": {
    "ci": [
      -2.9,
      -1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−1.8",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 379,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-black counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -1.81595,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "td_black_w": {
    "ci": [
      -0.8,
      2.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.9",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 379,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-black counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.867098,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "td_hisp_u": {
    "ci": [
      -4.7,
      -2.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−3.3",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 314,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-hispanic counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -3.27355,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "td_hisp_u_abs": {
    "ci": [
      2.4,
      4.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "3.3",
    "estimand": "absolute value of the county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 314,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Hispanic counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of the two-party margin below the all-county mean",
    "value": 3.27355,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "td_hisp_w": {
    "ci": [
      -6.2,
      -3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−4.2",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 314,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-hispanic counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -4.24219,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "td_hisp_w_abs": {
    "ci": [
      3,
      6.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "4.2",
    "estimand": "absolute value of the vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 314,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "high-Hispanic counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of the two-party margin below the all-county mean",
    "value": 4.24219,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "td_other_u": {
    "ci": [
      0.4,
      1.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.7",
    "estimand": "county-equal mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 2257,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "all other counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 0.738492,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "td_other_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.8,
      2.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.9",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of county swing minus national swing in the group, minus the same mean over all counties in the analysis",
    "n": 2257,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "all other counties in 2020",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "difference between the group mean and the all-county mean, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": 1.86805,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the later election"
  },
  "wayne_rel": {
    "display": "−2.5",
    "estimand": "county swing minus national swing",
    "n": 1,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "Wayne County, Michigan",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "county swing minus national swing, percentage points of the two-party margin",
    "value": -2.45339,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "z_black": {
    "ci": [
      -0.29,
      -0.11
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.18",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the Black share and the ZIP code area swing",
    "n": 29323,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas with more than 100 presidential votes in 2020, contiguous United States",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.182248,
    "weights": "presidential votes in 2020"
  },
  "z_college": {
    "ci": [
      0.42,
      0.55
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.47",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the college share (ZCTA atlas measure) and the ZIP code area swing",
    "n": 29323,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas with more than 100 presidential votes in 2020, contiguous United States",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.46885,
    "weights": "presidential votes in 2020"
  },
  "z_foreign": {
    "ci": [
      -0.61,
      -0.14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.46",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the foreign-born share and the ZIP code area swing",
    "n": 29323,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas with more than 100 presidential votes in 2020, contiguous United States",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.462225,
    "weights": "presidential votes in 2020"
  },
  "z_hispanic": {
    "ci": [
      -0.6,
      -0.29
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.50",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted correlation between the Hispanic share and the ZIP code area swing",
    "n": 29323,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas with more than 100 presidential votes in 2020, contiguous United States",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.498829,
    "weights": "presidential votes in 2020"
  },
  "zcta_college_mean": {
    "display": "54.7%",
    "estimand": "mean across areas of the atlas college-education share",
    "n": 29323,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas in the check",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent, atlas college measure",
    "value": 54.721,
    "weights": "none; each area counted once"
  },
  "zcta_n": {
    "display": "29,323",
    "estimand": "count of areas",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas with more than 100 presidential votes in 2020 and all four characteristics",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "ZIP code areas",
    "value": 29323,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "zcta_n_dropped": {
    "display": "14",
    "estimand": "count of areas dropped because the atlas codes a characteristic as missing (-1)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code areas with more than 100 presidential votes in 2020",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "ZIP code areas",
    "value": 14,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  }
}