{
  "alt": "Line chart by ANES study from 1952 to 2024 with two lines. The Republican president and Democratic House line peaks at {fact:rdh_1972} in 1972 and falls to {fact:rdh_2024} in 2024. The Democratic president and Republican House line is {fact:drh_1972} in 1972, {fact:drh_1996} in 1996 and {fact:drh_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The Republican-president, Democratic-House line is above the other line in every study from 1972 to 1988 and below it in 1996, and from 1996 on the other line has the higher estimate in {fact:n_drh_larger} of {fact:n_post96} studies. The Democratic-president, Republican-House line was {fact:drh_1996} in 1996 and {fact:drh_2024} in 2024. Bands are 95% confidence intervals. The second view plots the net effect of the two kinds of split on the House vote.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 12.1842,
      "conf_low": 8.43022,
      "estimate": 10.3072,
      "n": 1009,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.4395,
      "conf_low": 11.4936,
      "estimate": 13.4666,
      "n": 1151,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.2502,
      "conf_low": 7.29484,
      "estimate": 9.77254,
      "n": 766,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.00575,
      "conf_low": 4.87704,
      "estimate": 6.44139,
      "n": 947,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.0121,
      "conf_low": 8.63734,
      "estimate": 10.8247,
      "n": 776,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.3412,
      "conf_low": 22.6202,
      "estimate": 24.9807,
      "n": 1293,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.7443,
      "conf_low": 13.2713,
      "estimate": 15.5078,
      "n": 1049,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.6484,
      "conf_low": 16.9842,
      "estimate": 19.8163,
      "n": 762,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.1016,
      "conf_low": 17.4781,
      "estimate": 19.7898,
      "n": 1142,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.6126,
      "conf_low": 15.8923,
      "estimate": 18.2524,
      "n": 1030,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1501,
      "conf_low": 10.3134,
      "estimate": 12.2317,
      "n": 1126,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.73955,
      "conf_low": 2.84447,
      "estimate": 4.29201,
      "n": 926,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.5405,
      "conf_low": 6.45566,
      "estimate": 8.49808,
      "n": 882,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.9867,
      "conf_low": 7.22874,
      "estimate": 9.60774,
      "n": 701,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.75045,
      "conf_low": 5.99713,
      "estimate": 7.87379,
      "n": 1222,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.91207,
      "conf_low": 3.15767,
      "estimate": 4.03487,
      "n": 3501,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.78344,
      "conf_low": 5.24707,
      "estimate": 6.51525,
      "n": 2138,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.36844,
      "conf_low": 3.76422,
      "estimate": 4.56633,
      "n": 5167,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.33265,
      "conf_low": 1.0997,
      "estimate": 1.71617,
      "n": 3515,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Republican for president, Democratic for House",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.20084,
      "conf_low": 1.35813,
      "estimate": 2.27948,
      "n": 1009,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.91097,
      "conf_low": 1.25931,
      "estimate": 2.08514,
      "n": 1151,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.88836,
      "conf_low": 2.53624,
      "estimate": 4.2123,
      "n": 766,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.451,
      "conf_low": 6.8668,
      "estimate": 8.65892,
      "n": 947,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.7502,
      "conf_low": 5.16733,
      "estimate": 6.95876,
      "n": 776,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.70093,
      "conf_low": 3.42514,
      "estimate": 4.56303,
      "n": 1293,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.0486,
      "conf_low": 7.46704,
      "estimate": 9.25781,
      "n": 1049,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.78759,
      "conf_low": 5.96044,
      "estimate": 7.87402,
      "n": 762,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.93876,
      "conf_low": 4.26964,
      "estimate": 5.6042,
      "n": 1142,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.65529,
      "conf_low": 5.51947,
      "estimate": 7.08738,
      "n": 1030,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.8732,
      "conf_low": 8.34346,
      "estimate": 10.1083,
      "n": 1126,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.8001,
      "conf_low": 10.9388,
      "estimate": 13.3695,
      "n": 926,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.0321,
      "conf_low": 7.66702,
      "estimate": 9.84957,
      "n": 882,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.28083,
      "conf_low": 5.10882,
      "estimate": 7.19483,
      "n": 701,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.8343,
      "conf_low": 6.87531,
      "estimate": 8.85482,
      "n": 1222,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.81885,
      "conf_low": 4.73847,
      "estimate": 5.77866,
      "n": 3501,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.2184,
      "conf_low": 7.31214,
      "estimate": 8.76529,
      "n": 2138,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.75242,
      "conf_low": 5.81966,
      "estimate": 6.78604,
      "n": 5167,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.78012,
      "conf_low": 2.16752,
      "estimate": 2.97382,
      "n": 3515,
      "panel": "direction",
      "series": "Democratic for president, Republican for House",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.1611,
      "conf_low": 5.8944,
      "estimate": 8.02775,
      "n": 1009,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.5637,
      "conf_low": 9.19916,
      "estimate": 11.3814,
      "n": 1151,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.64591,
      "conf_low": 2.47456,
      "estimate": 5.56024,
      "n": 766,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.254692,
      "conf_low": -4.68975,
      "estimate": -2.21753,
      "n": 947,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.82245,
      "conf_low": 0.909511,
      "estimate": 3.86598,
      "n": 776,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.1644,
      "conf_low": 17.6709,
      "estimate": 20.4176,
      "n": 1293,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.30037,
      "conf_low": 3.19963,
      "estimate": 6.25,
      "n": 1049,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.5834,
      "conf_low": 8.30112,
      "estimate": 11.9423,
      "n": 762,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.9914,
      "conf_low": 11.3799,
      "estimate": 14.1856,
      "n": 1142,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1641,
      "conf_low": 8.16597,
      "estimate": 11.165,
      "n": 1030,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.88793,
      "conf_low": -0.641122,
      "estimate": 2.12341,
      "n": 1126,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -6.14681,
      "conf_low": -12.0081,
      "estimate": -9.07747,
      "n": 926,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.78429,
      "conf_low": -4.48726,
      "estimate": -1.35149,
      "n": 882,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.71625,
      "conf_low": -0.890424,
      "estimate": 2.41291,
      "n": 701,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.86806,
      "conf_low": -3.83013,
      "estimate": -0.981033,
      "n": 1222,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.349464,
      "conf_low": -3.13811,
      "estimate": -1.74379,
      "n": 3501,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.244663,
      "conf_low": -4.25541,
      "estimate": -2.25004,
      "n": 2138,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.927898,
      "conf_low": -3.51152,
      "estimate": -2.21971,
      "n": 5167,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.231408,
      "conf_low": -2.28388,
      "estimate": -1.25765,
      "n": 3515,
      "panel": "net",
      "series": "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "split_direction",
  "notes": [
    "Net effect, second view: the weighted mean of the House Democratic vote minus the presidential Democratic vote among the same voters, in points. Zero means the two Democratic shares are equal even if many voters split in each direction."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2024; weighted (post-election weight where the file has one, VCF0009z elsewhere)",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Democratic for president, Republican for House": "cat2",
      "Republican for president, Democratic for House": "cat1"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1950,
      2026
    ],
    "xLabel": "Study year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      0,
      32
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0,
      "suffix": "%"
    },
    "yLabel": "Voters (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Share of voters with a major-party vote for president and for the House, by which party won each vote, ANES studies 1952 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "panel",
        "label": "View"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Study"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Estimate"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Voters who chose a Republican for president and a Democrat for the House were {fact:rdh_1972} in 1972 and {fact:rdh_2024} in 2024",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "direction"
      },
      "id": "direction",
      "label": "Which kind of split"
    },
    {
      "caption": "A positive value means the House vote was more Democratic than the presidential vote among the same voters, and a negative value means it was less Democratic. The line is above zero in every study from 1972 to 1988, below zero in 1996 and at {fact:net_2024} points in 2024. Bands are 95% confidence intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "net"
      },
      "id": "net",
      "label": "Net effect on the House vote",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "label": "Equal shares",
            "type": "y-rule",
            "y": 0
          }
        ],
        "colors": {
          "House Democratic share minus presidential Democratic share": "total"
        },
        "dashed": [],
        "yDomain": [
          -15,
          25
        ],
        "yFormat": {
          "digits": 0,
          "signed": true
        },
        "yLabel": "House minus president, Democratic share (points)"
      },
      "title": "Among these voters the House Democratic share minus the presidential Democratic share was {fact:net_1972} points in 1972 and {fact:net_2024} points in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}