{
  "alt": "Dot chart with four rows, one per cohort of donors by first election cycle, from 1980 to 1996 through 2018 to 2024, and three dots per row. The mean CFscore of all reliable donors falls from {fact:nat_c1} for the oldest cohort to {fact:nat_c4} for the newest. In every row, the mean for Democratic-voting counties at least {fact:black_cut} Black lies to the right of the mean for other Democratic-voting counties, by {fact:gap_c1}, {fact:gap_c2}, {fact:gap_c3} and {fact:gap_c4} CFscore units from the oldest cohort to the newest.",
  "caption": "In every cohort the counties at least {fact:black_cut} Black are to the right of the other Democratic-voting counties, and both groups are left of zero in the two cohorts that first gave in 2010 or later. Each county dot is the mean of the county donor lean for donors in that cohort, counting each county once, with a 95% interval from the spread of county means; the gray dot is the mean of all reliable donors in the cohort. A county needs at least {fact:pool_floor} reliable donors in the cohort to count. Two more views keep the same counties in every cohort and plot the gap between the two groups.",
  "data": [
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.482,
      "conf_low": 0.308,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": 0.395,
      "n_right": 59,
      "n_units": 68,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": 86.8
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.242,
      "conf_low": 0.168,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": 0.205,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 317,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.23,
      "conf_low": 0.225,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": 0.228,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 422794,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": 0.269,
      "conf_low": 0.116,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": 0.193,
      "n_right": 63,
      "n_units": 90,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": 70
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": -0.145,
      "conf_low": -0.207,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": -0.176,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 363,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": -0.08,
      "conf_low": -0.083,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": -0.081,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 1562979,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": -0.242,
      "conf_low": -0.366,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": -0.304,
      "n_right": 7,
      "n_units": 72,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": 9.7
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": -0.543,
      "conf_low": -0.587,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": -0.565,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 356,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": -0.465,
      "conf_low": -0.469,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": -0.467,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 1249312,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": -0.163,
      "conf_low": -0.315,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": -0.239,
      "n_right": 18,
      "n_units": 80,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": 22.5
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": -0.54,
      "conf_low": -0.58,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": -0.56,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 356,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": -0.455,
      "conf_low": -0.459,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": -0.457,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 1482136,
      "set": "Every county with a pool",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.454,
      "conf_low": 0.272,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": 0.363,
      "n_right": 50,
      "n_units": 59,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": 84.7
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.241,
      "conf_low": 0.167,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": 0.204,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 315,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.23,
      "conf_low": 0.225,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": 0.228,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 422794,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": 0.231,
      "conf_low": 0.038,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": 0.135,
      "n_right": 38,
      "n_units": 59,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": 64.4
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": -0.147,
      "conf_low": -0.212,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": -0.18,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 315,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": -0.08,
      "conf_low": -0.083,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": -0.081,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 1562979,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": -0.238,
      "conf_low": -0.383,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": -0.311,
      "n_right": 6,
      "n_units": 59,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": 10.2
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": -0.534,
      "conf_low": -0.581,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": -0.557,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 315,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": -0.465,
      "conf_low": -0.469,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": -0.467,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 1249312,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": -0.22,
      "conf_low": -0.39,
      "group": "Counties at least 30% Black",
      "lean": -0.305,
      "n_right": 10,
      "n_units": 59,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": 16.9
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": -0.542,
      "conf_low": -0.583,
      "group": "Other Democratic-voting counties",
      "lean": -0.562,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 315,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": -0.455,
      "conf_low": -0.459,
      "group": "All reliable donors",
      "lean": -0.457,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 1482136,
      "set": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1980-96",
      "conf_high": 0.285,
      "conf_low": 0.095,
      "group": "Difference in mean donor lean",
      "lean": 0.19,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 385,
      "set": "Gap between the two groups",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 1998-2008",
      "conf_high": 0.451,
      "conf_low": 0.286,
      "group": "Difference in mean donor lean",
      "lean": 0.368,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 453,
      "set": "Gap between the two groups",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2010-16",
      "conf_high": 0.327,
      "conf_low": 0.195,
      "group": "Difference in mean donor lean",
      "lean": 0.261,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 428,
      "set": "Gap between the two groups",
      "share_right": null
    },
    {
      "cohort": "First gave 2018-24",
      "conf_high": 0.399,
      "conf_low": 0.242,
      "group": "Difference in mean donor lean",
      "lean": 0.32,
      "n_right": null,
      "n_units": 436,
      "set": "Gap between the two groups",
      "share_right": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "cohorts",
  "notes": [
    "A donor's CFscore is fixed, so a difference between cohorts is a difference in who gave, and a cohort is the set of donors whose first cycle falls in the window.",
    "The second view keeps only the counties that have a pool in every cohort; the third plots the difference between the two groups of counties.",
    "Intervals on county groups are 95% intervals from the spread of county means; the interval of the gray dot treats donors as independent draws."
  ],
  "source": "DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "All reliable donors": "muted",
      "Counties at least 30% Black": "cat4",
      "Other Democratic-voting counties": "cat2"
    },
    "group": "group",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "CFscore of zero",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "lean",
    "xDomain": [
      -0.8,
      0.6
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Mean CFscore of the pool (negative is left)",
    "y": "cohort"
  },
  "subtitle": "Mean CFscore of reliable donors, or the difference between two groups of counties, by the election cycles in which donors first gave, Democratic-voting counties with a large Black share and other Democratic-voting counties, 2020 vote",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "set",
        "label": "County set"
      },
      {
        "key": "cohort",
        "label": "Donor cohort"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "lean",
        "label": "Mean CFscore, or difference"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% interval, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% interval, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_units",
        "label": "Counties (donors for all)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_right",
        "label": "Counties with a right-leaning pool"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_right",
        "label": "Counties with a right-leaning pool (%)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Counties at least {fact:black_cut} Black sit to the right of other Democratic-voting counties in every donor cohort",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "set": "Every county with a pool"
      },
      "id": "available",
      "label": "Every county with a pool"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The counties at least {fact:black_cut} Black are to the right of the other Democratic-voting counties in every cohort. Each county dot is a mean over the counties with at least {fact:pool_floor} reliable donors in every cohort, counting each county once, with a 95% interval from the spread of county means; the gray dot is the mean of all reliable donors in the cohort, as in the first view.",
      "filter": {
        "set": "Same counties in every cohort"
      },
      "id": "balanced",
      "label": "Same counties in every cohort",
      "title": "With the same {fact:n_balanced} Democratic-voting counties in every cohort, the counties at least {fact:black_cut} Black stay to the right of the others by {fact:bal_gap_min} to {fact:bal_gap_max} CFscore units"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each dot is the mean donor lean of Democratic-voting counties at least {fact:black_cut} Black minus that of other Democratic-voting counties, for donors who first gave in each cohort, with a 95% interval from the spread of county means: {fact:gap_c1} for the oldest cohort, then {fact:gap_c2}, {fact:gap_c3} and {fact:gap_c4} for the newest.",
      "filter": {
        "set": "Gap between the two groups"
      },
      "id": "gap",
      "label": "Gap between the two groups",
      "spec": {
        "colors": {
          "Difference in mean donor lean": "total"
        },
        "referenceLabel": "No difference",
        "xDomain": [
          -0.1,
          0.6
        ],
        "xLabel": "Difference in mean donor lean (CFscore units)"
      },
      "title": "In every cohort the interval for the gap between the two groups of counties lies above zero"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}