{
  "alt": "Dot chart of regression coefficients with 95% intervals, in three measures and two weightings. Per {fact:slope_step} of Black share, donor lean rises by {fact:slope_raw_eq} CFscore units counting each county once and {fact:slope_raw_w} weighting by votes; after adjustment for college share and income the coefficients are {fact:slope_net_eq} and {fact:slope_net_w}, and the vote-weighted interval includes zero. Per {fact:slope_step} of college share the adjusted coefficients are {fact:college_net_eq} and {fact:college_net_w}, both below zero.",
  "caption": "Read each dot against the dashed line at zero. Black share alone has an interval above zero under both weightings; adjusted for the other two measures, the interval stays above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by their votes. Adjusted means that college share and median household income are held fixed for the Black share row, and Black share and median household income for the college share row. The dots are coefficients of a regression of county donor lean on the three measures, with standard errors clustered on the {fact:n_black_states} states.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 0.124891,
      "conf_low": 0.0769049,
      "estimate": 0.100898,
      "n": 498,
      "row": "Black share, alone, each county once",
      "term": "Black share, alone",
      "weighting": "Each county counted once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0752463,
      "conf_low": 0.00458549,
      "estimate": 0.0399159,
      "n": 498,
      "row": "Black share, alone, weighted by votes",
      "term": "Black share, alone",
      "weighting": "Weighted by two-party votes"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0940598,
      "conf_low": 0.0424655,
      "estimate": 0.0682627,
      "n": 498,
      "row": "Black share, adjusted, each county once",
      "term": "Black share, adjusted",
      "weighting": "Each county counted once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0617889,
      "conf_low": -0.00633066,
      "estimate": 0.0277291,
      "n": 498,
      "row": "Black share, adjusted, weighted by votes",
      "term": "Black share, adjusted",
      "weighting": "Weighted by two-party votes"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.0845967,
      "conf_low": -0.156324,
      "estimate": -0.12046,
      "n": 498,
      "row": "College share, adjusted, each county once",
      "term": "College share, adjusted",
      "weighting": "Each county counted once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.0612701,
      "conf_low": -0.154053,
      "estimate": -0.107662,
      "n": 498,
      "row": "College share, adjusted, weighted by votes",
      "term": "College share, adjusted",
      "weighting": "Weighted by two-party votes"
    }
  ],
  "id": "black_slopes",
  "notes": [
    "Adjusted rows hold the other two measures fixed in one regression. Democratic-voting counties without a college share or median household income, which are in Connecticut, are left out."
  ],
  "source": "DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted; regression estimates count each county once or weight by 2020 two-party votes",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Each county counted once": "total",
      "Weighted by two-party votes": "accent"
    },
    "group": "weighting",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No association",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -0.2,
      0.2
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Change in donor lean (CFscore units) per 10 points of the share",
    "y": "row"
  },
  "subtitle": "Regression coefficients of county donor lean, per 10 points of Black share or college share, Democratic-voting counties (n = {fact:n_black_frame}), 95% intervals from standard errors clustered on state",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "term",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Change in donor lean per 10 points"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% interval, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% interval, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The adjusted Black share slope is above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by votes",
  "type": "dot",
  "width": "wide"
}