{
  "alt": "Line chart of the Democratic share of the two-party vote for five age bands in the CES presidential elections of 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, with confidence bands. The five point estimates are ordered from the youngest band at the top to the oldest at the bottom in every election through 2020, and the three oldest bands are separated by their intervals. In 2024 the two oldest bands are close and the difference between them is {fact:ces_45_65_2024} points. The second view shows matched respondents with the validated-voter weight for 2020 and 2024 only.",
  "caption": "The three oldest lines keep their order in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020, and the intervals for the two differences between neighboring bands exclude zero. The two youngest bands are not always separated from their neighbors: in 2012 the difference between the two youngest is {fact:ces_band_1824_2529_2012} points and between the second and third bands {fact:ces_band_2529_3044_2012}. In 2024 the band aged forty-five to sixty-four differs from the band sixty-five and older by {fact:ces_45_65_2024} points, an interval that reaches zero, so the order of those two bands is not settled. The two youngest bands differ by {fact:ces_split_min} to {fact:ces_split_max} points across the five elections. Each line is the weighted Democratic share among two-party voters in one age band, and the bands are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 72.056,
      "conf_low": 66.4897,
      "estimate": 69.2729,
      "n": 1641,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 65.58,
      "conf_low": 58.7836,
      "estimate": 62.1818,
      "n": 1633,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 70.668,
      "conf_low": 64.7697,
      "estimate": 67.7189,
      "n": 1569,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 73.4263,
      "conf_low": 67.6187,
      "estimate": 70.5225,
      "n": 1795,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 68.1869,
      "conf_low": 58.6967,
      "estimate": 63.4418,
      "n": 1478,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 67.045,
      "conf_low": 61.6537,
      "estimate": 64.3494,
      "n": 1686,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 65.0052,
      "conf_low": 58.407,
      "estimate": 61.7061,
      "n": 1919,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 66.5645,
      "conf_low": 61.5176,
      "estimate": 64.0411,
      "n": 2449,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 68.465,
      "conf_low": 63.426,
      "estimate": 65.9455,
      "n": 2565,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 62.3724,
      "conf_low": 54.5318,
      "estimate": 58.4521,
      "n": 1604,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 57.9248,
      "conf_low": 54.8948,
      "estimate": 56.4098,
      "n": 5702,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 60.695,
      "conf_low": 56.9477,
      "estimate": 58.8213,
      "n": 4370,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 58.857,
      "conf_low": 56.1594,
      "estimate": 57.5082,
      "n": 8868,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 62.714,
      "conf_low": 60.2453,
      "estimate": 61.4796,
      "n": 9870,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 56.8184,
      "conf_low": 53.4639,
      "estimate": 55.1411,
      "n": 7073,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 51.7136,
      "conf_low": 49.4215,
      "estimate": 50.5676,
      "n": 10079,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 52.2143,
      "conf_low": 50.343,
      "estimate": 51.2786,
      "n": 18715,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 48.3096,
      "conf_low": 46.4814,
      "estimate": 47.3955,
      "n": 18133,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 50.1617,
      "conf_low": 48.28,
      "estimate": 49.2208,
      "n": 17747,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 45.0864,
      "conf_low": 42.7668,
      "estimate": 43.9266,
      "n": 16848,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 44.4722,
      "conf_low": 41.0028,
      "estimate": 42.7375,
      "n": 4477,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 44.5514,
      "conf_low": 41.897,
      "estimate": 43.2242,
      "n": 11152,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 44.3215,
      "conf_low": 41.3211,
      "estimate": 42.8213,
      "n": 9872,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 46.8433,
      "conf_low": 44.3883,
      "estimate": 45.6158,
      "n": 11895,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 46.6834,
      "conf_low": 44.4085,
      "estimate": 45.5459,
      "n": 15005,
      "weight": "standard",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 73.9343,
      "conf_low": 66.961,
      "estimate": 70.4477,
      "n": 1180,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "18 to 24",
      "conf_high": 74.6152,
      "conf_low": 62.8717,
      "estimate": 68.7435,
      "n": 530,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 70.9213,
      "conf_low": 64.8294,
      "estimate": 67.8754,
      "n": 1736,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "25 to 29",
      "conf_high": 67.0488,
      "conf_low": 57.5283,
      "estimate": 62.2885,
      "n": 873,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 64.1242,
      "conf_low": 61.4152,
      "estimate": 62.7697,
      "n": 7532,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "30 to 44",
      "conf_high": 58.7367,
      "conf_low": 55.2334,
      "estimate": 56.9851,
      "n": 5208,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 49.7169,
      "conf_low": 47.7363,
      "estimate": 48.7266,
      "n": 14897,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "45 to 64",
      "conf_high": 46.9701,
      "conf_low": 44.7663,
      "estimate": 45.8682,
      "n": 13637,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 47.3869,
      "conf_low": 44.7836,
      "estimate": 46.0852,
      "n": 10401,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "band": "65 and over",
      "conf_high": 42.8579,
      "conf_low": 40.358,
      "estimate": 41.608,
      "n": 12700,
      "weight": "validated",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_by_age_ces",
  "notes": [
    "The CES holds far more young voters than the ANES, so no cell falls below the floor. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel.",
    "Intervals are model based: they treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore clustering and stratification."
  ],
  "source": "CES Cumulative File, presidential elections 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "Even split",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 50
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "18 to 24": "cat4",
      "25 to 29": "cat3",
      "30 to 44": "cat2",
      "45 to 64": "cat1",
      "65 and over": "highlight"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "band",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      2008,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Presidential election year",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      35,
      75
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Democratic share of two-party vote (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote by age band (18 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 64 and 65 and over), CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "weight",
        "label": "Weight"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "band",
        "label": "Age band"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Democratic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In every CES election from 2008 to 2020 the Democratic share was lower among voters forty-five to sixty-four than among voters thirty to forty-four, and lower again among voters sixty-five and older",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "weight": "standard"
      },
      "id": "standard",
      "label": "Standard weight, all voters"
    },
    {
      "caption": "With the validated-voter weight on voters whose registration was matched to voter-file records, the five estimates keep their order in 2020 and in 2024. The weight exists for 2020 and 2024 in these elections, and in 2020 it is a constant multiple of the standard weight. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "weight": "validated"
      },
      "id": "validated",
      "label": "Validated-voter weight, matched voters",
      "spec": {
        "xDomain": [
          2020,
          2024
        ],
        "xTicks": [
          2020,
          2024
        ]
      },
      "title": "Among matched CES voters the point estimates fall with each older band in 2020 and in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}