{
  "alt": "Line chart with one line per birth cohort showing each cohort's Democratic vote share minus the share among other voters, by presidential election from 1952 to 2024. The 1943 to 1958 cohort starts at {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_first} points in 1972 and ends at {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_last} in 2024. The 1975 to 1990 cohort starts at {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_first} in 2004 and ends at {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_last}. The 1927 to 1942 cohort is below the other voters in every election from 2008 to 2020. Other views show levels and the CES.",
  "caption": "The 1943 to 1958 cohort led other voters by {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_first} points in 1972 and by {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_last} in 2024, and the 1975 to 1990 cohort by {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_first} points in 2004 and {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_last} in 2024. The cohort born 1911 to 1926 has a lead of similar size in its first cell, in 1952, and its last, in 1996. A cohort's first points include only its members old enough to vote. A line is drawn from the first election in which the cohort has enough voters, and bands are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 43.8276,
      "conf_low": 33.9204,
      "diff": -4.63168,
      "diff_high": 1.40647,
      "diff_low": -10.6698,
      "estimate": 38.874,
      "n": 373,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 44.3598,
      "conf_low": 34.1712,
      "diff": -1.42953,
      "diff_high": 4.60015,
      "diff_low": -7.45921,
      "estimate": 39.2655,
      "n": 354,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 56.6038,
      "conf_low": 42.3705,
      "diff": 0.408615,
      "diff_high": 8.8714,
      "diff_low": -8.05417,
      "estimate": 49.4872,
      "n": 261,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 71.6625,
      "conf_low": 60.1383,
      "diff": -2.06193,
      "diff_high": 4.50048,
      "diff_low": -8.62433,
      "estimate": 65.9004,
      "n": 261,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 53.1609,
      "conf_low": 38.9857,
      "diff": -0.230746,
      "diff_high": 7.74255,
      "diff_low": -8.20404,
      "estimate": 46.0733,
      "n": 191,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 37.776,
      "conf_low": 26.2557,
      "diff": -4.45744,
      "diff_high": 1.85856,
      "diff_low": -10.7734,
      "estimate": 32.0158,
      "n": 253,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 59.3116,
      "conf_low": 45.2151,
      "diff": 1.35626,
      "diff_high": 9.01546,
      "diff_low": -6.30293,
      "estimate": 52.2634,
      "n": 202,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910",
      "conf_high": 59.7512,
      "conf_low": 40.2488,
      "diff": 7.05045,
      "diff_high": 17.408,
      "diff_low": -3.30707,
      "estimate": 50,
      "n": 102,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 51.3991,
      "conf_low": 42.1991,
      "diff": 7.80893,
      "diff_high": 13.6394,
      "diff_low": 1.97848,
      "estimate": 46.7991,
      "n": 453,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 45.3344,
      "conf_low": 36.8361,
      "diff": 1.35924,
      "diff_high": 6.89753,
      "diff_low": -4.17904,
      "estimate": 41.0853,
      "n": 516,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 57.115,
      "conf_low": 45.2023,
      "diff": 3.25167,
      "diff_high": 11.0555,
      "diff_low": -4.55215,
      "estimate": 51.1586,
      "n": 372,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 73.1277,
      "conf_low": 64.0295,
      "diff": 1.72383,
      "diff_high": 7.44374,
      "diff_low": -3.99608,
      "estimate": 68.5786,
      "n": 401,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 48.6264,
      "conf_low": 37.6355,
      "diff": -4.76817,
      "diff_high": 2.03912,
      "diff_low": -11.5755,
      "estimate": 43.131,
      "n": 313,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 33.9405,
      "conf_low": 25.3187,
      "diff": -8.43657,
      "diff_high": -3.29073,
      "diff_low": -13.5824,
      "estimate": 29.6296,
      "n": 432,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 58.3646,
      "conf_low": 47.8709,
      "diff": 2.739,
      "diff_high": 8.90609,
      "diff_low": -3.4281,
      "estimate": 53.1178,
      "n": 363,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 53.4246,
      "conf_low": 40.3254,
      "diff": 4.17147,
      "diff_high": 11.745,
      "diff_low": -3.40202,
      "estimate": 46.875,
      "n": 224,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 50.2462,
      "conf_low": 38.4811,
      "diff": 3.18717,
      "diff_high": 9.75712,
      "diff_low": -3.38279,
      "estimate": 44.3636,
      "n": 275,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 50.7602,
      "conf_low": 37.8363,
      "diff": -3.47838,
      "diff_high": 3.7104,
      "diff_low": -10.6672,
      "estimate": 44.2982,
      "n": 228,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 68.0951,
      "conf_low": 55.6672,
      "diff": 4.10382,
      "diff_high": 10.9605,
      "diff_low": -2.7529,
      "estimate": 61.8811,
      "n": 237,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926",
      "conf_high": 72.0216,
      "conf_low": 55.972,
      "diff": 6.45091,
      "diff_high": 15.2752,
      "diff_low": -2.3734,
      "estimate": 63.9968,
      "n": 163,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 49.4091,
      "conf_low": 34.8605,
      "diff": 2.15356,
      "diff_high": 9.99923,
      "diff_low": -5.69211,
      "estimate": 42.1348,
      "n": 178,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "diff": null,
      "diff_high": null,
      "diff_low": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "n": null,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 75.3097,
      "conf_low": 65.626,
      "diff": 4.322,
      "diff_high": 10.2092,
      "diff_low": -1.56521,
      "estimate": 70.4678,
      "n": 342,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 56.1774,
      "conf_low": 44.5269,
      "diff": 5.96109,
      "diff_high": 12.9721,
      "diff_low": -1.04995,
      "estimate": 50.3521,
      "n": 284,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 39.1777,
      "conf_low": 30.3291,
      "diff": -1.40184,
      "diff_high": 3.83275,
      "diff_low": -6.63643,
      "estimate": 34.7534,
      "n": 446,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 52.5702,
      "conf_low": 41.8938,
      "diff": -5.25438,
      "diff_high": 0.978424,
      "diff_low": -11.4872,
      "estimate": 47.232,
      "n": 351,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 44.776,
      "conf_low": 32.0097,
      "diff": -7.22926,
      "diff_high": 0.214287,
      "diff_low": -14.6728,
      "estimate": 38.3929,
      "n": 224,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 45.8329,
      "conf_low": 35.0448,
      "diff": -1.80251,
      "diff_high": 4.36854,
      "diff_low": -7.97356,
      "estimate": 40.4389,
      "n": 319,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 54.8212,
      "conf_low": 43.0049,
      "diff": 2.34068,
      "diff_high": 9.07256,
      "diff_low": -4.3912,
      "estimate": 48.913,
      "n": 276,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 61.7557,
      "conf_low": 50.2697,
      "diff": -3.15511,
      "diff_high": 3.30339,
      "diff_low": -9.61362,
      "estimate": 56.0127,
      "n": 289,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 62.8538,
      "conf_low": 49.0211,
      "diff": -3.10135,
      "diff_high": 4.80373,
      "diff_low": -11.0064,
      "estimate": 55.9374,
      "n": 230,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 55.6178,
      "conf_low": 41.1836,
      "diff": -4.66186,
      "diff_high": 3.42754,
      "diff_low": -12.7512,
      "estimate": 48.4007,
      "n": 226,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 58.764,
      "conf_low": 42.2529,
      "diff": 0.852223,
      "diff_high": 10.1253,
      "diff_low": -8.42086,
      "estimate": 50.5085,
      "n": 170,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 49.1802,
      "conf_low": 33.126,
      "diff": -16.4231,
      "diff_high": -7.71724,
      "diff_low": -25.1289,
      "estimate": 41.1531,
      "n": 224,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 49.3962,
      "conf_low": 38.1139,
      "diff": -11.227,
      "diff_high": -5.17412,
      "diff_low": -17.2798,
      "estimate": 43.755,
      "n": 520,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 48.3429,
      "conf_low": 33.3819,
      "diff": -13.2621,
      "diff_high": -5.38267,
      "diff_low": -21.1415,
      "estimate": 40.8624,
      "n": 256,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 54.1588,
      "conf_low": 40.8523,
      "diff": -9.18879,
      "diff_high": -2.28081,
      "diff_low": -16.0968,
      "estimate": 47.5055,
      "n": 415,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 68.6275,
      "conf_low": 49.2905,
      "diff": 4.60777,
      "diff_high": 14.553,
      "diff_low": -5.33748,
      "estimate": 58.959,
      "n": 204,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 52.2756,
      "conf_low": 42.5135,
      "diff": 15.6188,
      "diff_high": 21.1782,
      "diff_low": 10.0595,
      "estimate": 47.3945,
      "n": 403,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 58.0872,
      "conf_low": 47.8425,
      "diff": 2.67555,
      "diff_high": 8.75226,
      "diff_low": -3.40116,
      "estimate": 52.9648,
      "n": 378,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 47.1238,
      "conf_low": 35.4849,
      "diff": -3.60383,
      "diff_high": 3.45018,
      "diff_low": -10.6578,
      "estimate": 41.3043,
      "n": 276,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 45.2163,
      "conf_low": 36.8253,
      "diff": -1.30535,
      "diff_high": 4.06676,
      "diff_low": -6.67745,
      "estimate": 41.0208,
      "n": 529,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 51.6149,
      "conf_low": 42.3717,
      "diff": -0.191668,
      "diff_high": 5.65719,
      "diff_low": -6.04053,
      "estimate": 46.9933,
      "n": 449,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 63.0057,
      "conf_low": 53.9119,
      "diff": -0.0651737,
      "diff_high": 5.50689,
      "diff_low": -5.63724,
      "estimate": 58.4588,
      "n": 453,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 63.8845,
      "conf_low": 52.1943,
      "diff": -0.527557,
      "diff_high": 6.61381,
      "diff_low": -7.66892,
      "estimate": 58.0394,
      "n": 336,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 58.7509,
      "conf_low": 47.7598,
      "diff": 1.5617,
      "diff_high": 8.38328,
      "diff_low": -5.25988,
      "estimate": 53.2554,
      "n": 380,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 50.7357,
      "conf_low": 37.3244,
      "diff": -8.30906,
      "diff_high": -0.21432,
      "diff_low": -16.4038,
      "estimate": 44.03,
      "n": 259,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 59.2801,
      "conf_low": 47.7993,
      "diff": -2.15663,
      "diff_high": 4.68578,
      "diff_low": -8.99905,
      "estimate": 53.5397,
      "n": 451,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 54.0523,
      "conf_low": 47.2037,
      "diff": -4.27343,
      "diff_high": -0.00971764,
      "diff_low": -8.53715,
      "estimate": 50.628,
      "n": 1481,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 52.1573,
      "conf_low": 43.9525,
      "diff": -6.79915,
      "diff_high": -1.80213,
      "diff_low": -11.7962,
      "estimate": 48.0549,
      "n": 802,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 57.0764,
      "conf_low": 50.6924,
      "diff": -3.08626,
      "diff_high": 0.755191,
      "diff_low": -6.92772,
      "estimate": 53.8844,
      "n": 1835,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 60.6994,
      "conf_low": 52.6704,
      "diff": 2.72169,
      "diff_high": 7.5441,
      "diff_low": -2.10071,
      "estimate": 56.6849,
      "n": 1155,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 50.2923,
      "conf_low": 34.476,
      "diff": 0.634931,
      "diff_high": 9.01666,
      "diff_low": -7.74679,
      "estimate": 42.3841,
      "n": 151,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 55.6991,
      "conf_low": 40.8918,
      "diff": 1.38672,
      "diff_high": 9.39996,
      "diff_low": -6.62652,
      "estimate": 48.2955,
      "n": 176,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 63.7907,
      "conf_low": 53.1232,
      "diff": -0.0602085,
      "diff_high": 6.06942,
      "diff_low": -6.18984,
      "estimate": 58.4569,
      "n": 330,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 64.2203,
      "conf_low": 50.9819,
      "diff": -1.11791,
      "diff_high": 6.55694,
      "diff_low": -8.79275,
      "estimate": 57.6011,
      "n": 263,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 52.3768,
      "conf_low": 40.586,
      "diff": -8.1578,
      "diff_high": -1.08629,
      "diff_low": -15.2293,
      "estimate": 46.4814,
      "n": 328,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 52.433,
      "conf_low": 38.0201,
      "diff": -6.45245,
      "diff_high": 1.99364,
      "diff_low": -14.8985,
      "estimate": 45.2266,
      "n": 211,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 61.3044,
      "conf_low": 50.027,
      "diff": 0.794103,
      "diff_high": 7.57126,
      "diff_low": -5.98306,
      "estimate": 55.6657,
      "n": 462,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 57.653,
      "conf_low": 50.0671,
      "diff": 0.397962,
      "diff_high": 4.90607,
      "diff_low": -4.11014,
      "estimate": 53.86,
      "n": 1171,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 54.2342,
      "conf_low": 45.3178,
      "diff": -4.44162,
      "diff_high": 0.809338,
      "diff_low": -9.69259,
      "estimate": 49.776,
      "n": 664,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 53.6261,
      "conf_low": 46.8655,
      "diff": -8.45703,
      "diff_high": -4.46965,
      "diff_low": -12.4444,
      "estimate": 50.2458,
      "n": 1561,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 54.8174,
      "conf_low": 46.3951,
      "diff": -5.48203,
      "diff_high": -0.486505,
      "diff_low": -10.4775,
      "estimate": 50.6063,
      "n": 1061,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 74.6932,
      "conf_low": 57.3235,
      "diff": 19.6632,
      "diff_high": 29.2763,
      "diff_low": 10.0501,
      "estimate": 66.0083,
      "n": 137,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 71.3664,
      "conf_low": 58.5096,
      "diff": 13.0877,
      "diff_high": 20.4272,
      "diff_low": 5.74833,
      "estimate": 64.938,
      "n": 337,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 64.5875,
      "conf_low": 55.5052,
      "diff": 8.45926,
      "diff_high": 13.5402,
      "diff_low": 3.37835,
      "estimate": 60.0464,
      "n": 827,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 67.3682,
      "conf_low": 58.1618,
      "diff": 12.7279,
      "diff_high": 18.0732,
      "diff_low": 7.38267,
      "estimate": 62.765,
      "n": 604,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 61.7694,
      "conf_low": 55.0624,
      "diff": 2.93537,
      "diff_high": 6.90523,
      "diff_low": -1.03449,
      "estimate": 58.4159,
      "n": 1454,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 60.0208,
      "conf_low": 51.2526,
      "diff": 1.45573,
      "diff_high": 6.57781,
      "diff_low": -3.66636,
      "estimate": 55.6367,
      "n": 964,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 71.6316,
      "conf_low": 54.2012,
      "diff": 11.1827,
      "diff_high": 20.2255,
      "diff_low": 2.13983,
      "estimate": 62.9164,
      "n": 177,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 74.8575,
      "conf_low": 64.3263,
      "diff": 15.9345,
      "diff_high": 21.5172,
      "diff_low": 10.3517,
      "estimate": 69.5919,
      "n": 573,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 61.1381,
      "conf_low": 48.9899,
      "diff": 0.654564,
      "diff_high": 7.1772,
      "diff_low": -5.86807,
      "estimate": 55.064,
      "n": 452,
      "panel": "anes",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 44.041,
      "conf_low": 40.3039,
      "diff": -13.7933,
      "diff_high": -11.7444,
      "diff_low": -15.8422,
      "estimate": 42.1725,
      "n": 3830,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 42.4506,
      "conf_low": 38.8998,
      "diff": -13.8036,
      "diff_high": -11.8498,
      "diff_low": -15.7574,
      "estimate": 40.6752,
      "n": 5912,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 40.5281,
      "conf_low": 35.5656,
      "diff": -14.139,
      "diff_high": -11.5673,
      "diff_low": -16.7106,
      "estimate": 38.0468,
      "n": 3561,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 39.4492,
      "conf_low": 34.2417,
      "diff": -16.6353,
      "diff_high": -13.9556,
      "diff_low": -19.315,
      "estimate": 36.8454,
      "n": 2320,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942",
      "conf_high": 38.9825,
      "conf_low": 31.841,
      "diff": -13.8714,
      "diff_high": -10.2189,
      "diff_low": -17.5238,
      "estimate": 35.4118,
      "n": 1150,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 52.1465,
      "conf_low": 49.5126,
      "diff": -4.30972,
      "diff_high": -2.69043,
      "diff_low": -5.92901,
      "estimate": 50.8295,
      "n": 7691,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 50.2322,
      "conf_low": 48.2418,
      "diff": -5.86187,
      "diff_high": -4.43147,
      "diff_low": -7.29227,
      "estimate": 49.237,
      "n": 17779,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 47.4904,
      "conf_low": 45.225,
      "diff": -6.89521,
      "diff_high": -5.5075,
      "diff_low": -8.28291,
      "estimate": 46.3577,
      "n": 13874,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 49.2884,
      "conf_low": 46.9488,
      "diff": -6.40761,
      "diff_high": -5.0329,
      "diff_low": -7.78232,
      "estimate": 48.1186,
      "n": 12855,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958",
      "conf_high": 47.56,
      "conf_low": 45.0697,
      "diff": -3.53989,
      "diff_high": -1.99257,
      "diff_low": -5.08721,
      "estimate": 46.3149,
      "n": 12790,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 54.0503,
      "conf_low": 51.3555,
      "diff": -1.69135,
      "diff_high": -0.0498421,
      "diff_low": -3.33287,
      "estimate": 52.7029,
      "n": 7281,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 54.8152,
      "conf_low": 51.9034,
      "diff": 0.394637,
      "diff_high": 2.09868,
      "diff_low": -1.3094,
      "estimate": 53.3593,
      "n": 8300,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 49.3156,
      "conf_low": 47.0377,
      "diff": -3.9023,
      "diff_high": -2.51341,
      "diff_low": -5.29119,
      "estimate": 48.1767,
      "n": 12150,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 49.9259,
      "conf_low": 47.8028,
      "diff": -5.30996,
      "diff_high": -4.00676,
      "diff_low": -6.61316,
      "estimate": 48.8644,
      "n": 13938,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974",
      "conf_high": 44.0591,
      "conf_low": 41.6551,
      "diff": -9.00787,
      "diff_high": -7.47402,
      "diff_low": -10.5417,
      "estimate": 42.8571,
      "n": 15336,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 67.9819,
      "conf_low": 64.5951,
      "diff": 16.5975,
      "diff_high": 18.4874,
      "diff_low": 14.7077,
      "estimate": 66.2885,
      "n": 4555,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 64.3612,
      "conf_low": 60.591,
      "diff": 12.3888,
      "diff_high": 14.4308,
      "diff_low": 10.3469,
      "estimate": 62.4761,
      "n": 4875,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 61.6368,
      "conf_low": 59.015,
      "diff": 12.2228,
      "diff_high": 13.7339,
      "diff_low": 10.7117,
      "estimate": 60.3259,
      "n": 9329,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 62.5106,
      "conf_low": 60.0825,
      "diff": 11.3185,
      "diff_high": 12.7255,
      "diff_low": 9.91158,
      "estimate": 61.2966,
      "n": 10393,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990",
      "conf_high": 56.1588,
      "conf_low": 53.0411,
      "diff": 7.4802,
      "diff_high": 9.26077,
      "diff_low": 5.69963,
      "estimate": 54.6,
      "n": 8460,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 63.9094,
      "conf_low": 53.7713,
      "diff": 6.04207,
      "diff_high": 11.167,
      "diff_low": 0.917141,
      "estimate": 58.8404,
      "n": 758,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 70.4451,
      "conf_low": 65.0168,
      "diff": 18.031,
      "diff_high": 20.8267,
      "diff_low": 15.2353,
      "estimate": 67.731,
      "n": 1925,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 69.7017,
      "conf_low": 65.8881,
      "diff": 16.8642,
      "diff_high": 18.8783,
      "diff_low": 14.85,
      "estimate": 67.7949,
      "n": 4360,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later",
      "conf_high": 61.5859,
      "conf_low": 56.4904,
      "diff": 11.9318,
      "diff_high": 14.5893,
      "diff_low": 9.27435,
      "estimate": 59.0381,
      "n": 4272,
      "panel": "ces",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "cohort_lines",
  "notes": [
    "Cohorts are the 16-year birth groups of the ANES cumulative file, and the CES uses the same groups from reported birth year. Cohort cells include every voter with a known cohort, whether or not the age is known. A cell is plotted only when it has {fact:floor_n} or more respondents and a Kish effective sample size (the sample size after weighting) of {fact:floor_n} or more, the floor of this chapter. A blank cell leaves a gap in the line.",
    "The comparison group is every other voter in the same election with a known cohort, so the cohort and the comparison group are different respondents. The measure removes anything that moves all voters together in an election, and it does not remove the effect of age or the changing make-up of the comparison group. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, presidential elections 1952-2024; weighted (post-election weight where the file has one, otherwise VCF0009z); two-party presidential voters; CES view: CES Cumulative File, presidential elections 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "Same as other voters",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Born 1895 to 1910": "cat7",
      "Born 1911 to 1926": "cat6",
      "Born 1927 to 1942": "cat5",
      "Born 1943 to 1958": "cat1",
      "Born 1959 to 1974": "cat2",
      "Born 1975 to 1990": "cat3",
      "Born 1991 or later": "cat4"
    },
    "hi": "diff_high",
    "lo": "diff_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "cohort",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1952,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Presidential election year",
    "y": "diff",
    "yDomain": [
      -25,
      30
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Lead over other voters (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote among voters in each birth cohort minus the share among voters born in other years, points, ANES 1952 to 2024; 95% intervals; the buttons switch survey and measure",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "panel",
        "label": "Survey"
      },
      {
        "key": "cohort",
        "label": "Birth cohort"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Democratic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "diff",
        "label": "Lead over other voters (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "diff_low",
        "label": "95% interval low (lead)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "diff_high",
        "label": "95% interval high (lead)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The cohorts born 1943 to 1958 and 1975 to 1990 began with a Democratic lead over other voters in the ANES and held a smaller one in 2024",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "anes"
      },
      "id": "anes_diff",
      "label": "ANES, lead over other voters"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each line follows one birth cohort through the elections in which the ANES has enough voters from it. From 2004 to 2020 the 1975 to 1990 cohort is above every older cohort in every election and falls toward the other lines by 2024. Every line moves with the election it is in, which is why the second view subtracts the share among other voters. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "anes"
      },
      "id": "anes",
      "label": "ANES, Democratic share",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "label": "Even split",
            "type": "y-rule",
            "y": 50
          }
        ],
        "hi": "conf_high",
        "lo": "conf_low",
        "y": "estimate",
        "yDomain": [
          25,
          80
        ],
        "yLabel": "Democratic share of two-party vote (%)"
      },
      "title": "From 2004 to 2020 the Democratic share of the 1975 to 1990 cohort in the ANES was above the share of every older cohort in each election"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The CES covers five elections, so each cohort has at most five points, and the first points of the cohort born 1991 or later include only its voters aged eighteen to twenty-one in 2012. The lead is the cohort's Democratic share minus the share among voters born in other years in the same election. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "ces"
      },
      "id": "ces_diff",
      "label": "CES, lead over other voters",
      "spec": {
        "xDomain": [
          2008,
          2024
        ],
        "xTicks": "data",
        "yDomain": [
          -25,
          25
        ]
      },
      "title": "In the CES the vote lead of the 1975 to 1990 cohort over other voters fell from {fact:fl_ces_vote_1975_1990_first} in 2008 to {fact:fl_ces_vote_1975_1990_last} in 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each line is one birth cohort's weighted Democratic share among two-party voters in the CES. Every cohort's share is lower in 2024 than in 2020, by the least for the two oldest cohorts. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "ces"
      },
      "id": "ces",
      "label": "CES, Democratic share",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "label": "Even split",
            "type": "y-rule",
            "y": 50
          }
        ],
        "hi": "conf_high",
        "lo": "conf_low",
        "xDomain": [
          2008,
          2024
        ],
        "xTicks": "data",
        "y": "estimate",
        "yDomain": [
          30,
          75
        ],
        "yLabel": "Democratic share of two-party vote (%)"
      },
      "title": "The Democratic share of the 1975 to 1990 cohort in the CES fell from {fact:fs_ces_vote_1975_1990_first} in 2008 to {fact:fs_ces_vote_1975_1990_last} in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}