{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row per birth cohort. The ring shows the cohort's Democratic vote lead over other voters in its first well-observed election and the dot shows its lead in the last. For the 1943 to 1958 cohort the lead falls from {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_first} to {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_last} points, and for the 1975 to 1990 cohort from {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_first} to {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_last}. Leads for the 1911 to 1926 cohort are {fact:fl_anes_vote_1911_1926_first} and {fact:fl_anes_vote_1911_1926_last}. Other views show the CES and party identification.",
  "caption": "The ring is a cohort's lead in the first election with enough voters and the dot is its lead in the last. The lead of the 1943 to 1958 cohort changed by {fact:fl_anes_vote_1943_1958_chg} points and that of the cohort born 1911 to 1926 by {fact:fl_anes_vote_1911_1926_chg}, an interval that includes zero. Each end is the difference of two weighted shares, and whiskers are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "change": 11.6821,
      "change_high": 23.6712,
      "change_low": -0.306922,
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910 (1952 to 1980)",
      "first": -4.63168,
      "first_high": 1.40647,
      "first_low": -10.6698,
      "last": 7.05045,
      "last_high": 17.408,
      "last_low": -3.30707,
      "n_first": 373,
      "n_last": 102,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -1.35803,
      "change_high": 9.21848,
      "change_low": -11.9345,
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926 (1952 to 1996)",
      "first": 7.80893,
      "first_high": 13.6394,
      "first_low": 1.97848,
      "last": 6.45091,
      "last_high": 15.2752,
      "last_low": -2.3734,
      "n_first": 453,
      "n_last": 163,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": 2.45421,
      "change_high": 15.1216,
      "change_low": -10.2132,
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942 (1956 to 2024)",
      "first": 2.15356,
      "first_high": 9.99923,
      "first_low": -5.69211,
      "last": 4.60777,
      "last_high": 14.553,
      "last_low": -5.33748,
      "n_first": 178,
      "n_last": 204,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -12.8971,
      "change_high": -5.53767,
      "change_low": -20.2566,
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958 (1972 to 2024)",
      "first": 15.6188,
      "first_high": 21.1782,
      "first_low": 10.0595,
      "last": 2.72169,
      "last_high": 7.5441,
      "last_low": -2.10071,
      "n_first": 403,
      "n_last": 1155,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -6.11696,
      "change_high": 3.64053,
      "change_low": -15.8744,
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974 (1984 to 2024)",
      "first": 0.634931,
      "first_high": 9.01666,
      "first_low": -7.74679,
      "last": -5.48203,
      "last_high": -0.486505,
      "last_low": -10.4775,
      "n_first": 151,
      "n_last": 1061,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -18.2075,
      "change_high": -7.31495,
      "change_low": -29.1,
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990 (2004 to 2024)",
      "first": 19.6632,
      "first_high": 29.2763,
      "first_low": 10.0501,
      "last": 1.45573,
      "last_high": 6.57781,
      "last_low": -3.66636,
      "n_first": 137,
      "n_last": 964,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -10.5281,
      "change_high": 0.621679,
      "change_low": -21.6779,
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later (2016 to 2024)",
      "first": 11.1827,
      "first_high": 20.2255,
      "first_low": 2.13983,
      "last": 0.654564,
      "last_high": 7.1772,
      "last_low": -5.86807,
      "n_first": 177,
      "n_last": 452,
      "panel": "anes_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -0.0780493,
      "change_high": 4.1098,
      "change_low": -4.2659,
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942 (2008 to 2024)",
      "first": -13.7933,
      "first_high": -11.7444,
      "first_low": -15.8422,
      "last": -13.8714,
      "last_high": -10.2189,
      "last_low": -17.5238,
      "n_first": 3830,
      "n_last": 1150,
      "panel": "ces_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": 0.769832,
      "change_high": 3.00954,
      "change_low": -1.46988,
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958 (2008 to 2024)",
      "first": -4.30972,
      "first_high": -2.69043,
      "first_low": -5.92901,
      "last": -3.53989,
      "last_high": -1.99257,
      "last_low": -5.08721,
      "n_first": 7691,
      "n_last": 12790,
      "panel": "ces_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -7.31652,
      "change_high": -5.0699,
      "change_low": -9.56313,
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974 (2008 to 2024)",
      "first": -1.69135,
      "first_high": -0.0498421,
      "first_low": -3.33287,
      "last": -9.00787,
      "last_high": -7.47402,
      "last_low": -10.5417,
      "n_first": 7281,
      "n_last": 15336,
      "panel": "ces_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": -9.11734,
      "change_high": -6.52078,
      "change_low": -11.7139,
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990 (2008 to 2024)",
      "first": 16.5975,
      "first_high": 18.4874,
      "first_low": 14.7077,
      "last": 7.4802,
      "last_high": 9.26077,
      "last_low": 5.69963,
      "n_first": 4555,
      "n_last": 8460,
      "panel": "ces_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": 5.88974,
      "change_high": 11.6627,
      "change_low": 0.116783,
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later (2012 to 2024)",
      "first": 6.04207,
      "first_high": 11.167,
      "first_low": 0.917141,
      "last": 11.9318,
      "last_high": 14.5893,
      "last_low": 9.27435,
      "n_first": 758,
      "n_last": 4272,
      "panel": "ces_vote"
    },
    {
      "change": 1.1899,
      "change_high": 12.5627,
      "change_low": -10.1829,
      "cohort": "Born 1895 to 1910 (1952 to 1988)",
      "first": -1.66997,
      "first_high": 3.52557,
      "first_low": -6.86551,
      "last": -0.480071,
      "last_high": 9.63655,
      "last_low": -10.5967,
      "n_first": 484,
      "n_last": 100,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": 4.58323,
      "change_high": 14.8043,
      "change_low": -5.63781,
      "cohort": "Born 1911 to 1926 (1952 to 2000)",
      "first": 6.66417,
      "first_high": 11.4937,
      "first_low": 1.83465,
      "last": 11.2474,
      "last_high": 20.2555,
      "last_low": 2.23932,
      "n_first": 625,
      "n_last": 141,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -1.25374,
      "change_high": 11.2375,
      "change_low": -13.745,
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942 (1952 to 2024)",
      "first": 5.88426,
      "first_high": 14.2019,
      "first_low": -2.43335,
      "last": 4.63052,
      "last_high": 13.9498,
      "last_low": -4.68873,
      "n_first": 134,
      "n_last": 240,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -3.43587,
      "change_high": 6.48034,
      "change_low": -13.3521,
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958 (1968 to 2024)",
      "first": 4.59299,
      "first_high": 13.4306,
      "first_low": -4.24457,
      "last": 1.15712,
      "last_high": 5.65476,
      "last_low": -3.34052,
      "n_first": 121,
      "n_last": 1339,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -5.72762,
      "change_high": 1.99766,
      "change_low": -13.4529,
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974 (1984 to 2024)",
      "first": -0.209288,
      "first_high": 6.06405,
      "first_low": -6.48263,
      "last": -5.9369,
      "last_high": -1.42856,
      "last_low": -10.4452,
      "n_first": 285,
      "n_last": 1324,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -8.82969,
      "change_high": 1.60489,
      "change_low": -19.2643,
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990 (2000 to 2024)",
      "first": 8.55987,
      "first_high": 17.9539,
      "first_low": -0.83417,
      "last": -0.269819,
      "last_high": 4.27247,
      "last_low": -4.81211,
      "n_first": 135,
      "n_last": 1301,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -5.95344,
      "change_high": 4.84023,
      "change_low": -16.7471,
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later (2012 to 2024)",
      "first": 10.1537,
      "first_high": 19.6105,
      "first_low": 0.69697,
      "last": 4.20029,
      "last_high": 9.40345,
      "last_low": -1.00287,
      "n_first": 189,
      "n_last": 765,
      "panel": "anes_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -9.56978,
      "change_high": -5.5593,
      "change_low": -13.5802,
      "cohort": "Born 1927 to 1942 (2006 to 2024)",
      "first": -6.18749,
      "first_high": -4.66861,
      "first_low": -7.70636,
      "last": -15.7573,
      "last_high": -12.0455,
      "last_low": -19.469,
      "n_first": 5626,
      "n_last": 1178,
      "panel": "ces_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -1.74349,
      "change_high": 0.296767,
      "change_low": -3.78375,
      "cohort": "Born 1943 to 1958 (2006 to 2024)",
      "first": -3.41423,
      "first_high": -2.1167,
      "first_low": -4.71175,
      "last": -5.15772,
      "last_high": -3.58321,
      "last_low": -6.73223,
      "n_first": 11395,
      "n_last": 13339,
      "panel": "ces_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -7.18724,
      "change_high": -5.18016,
      "change_low": -9.19432,
      "cohort": "Born 1959 to 1974 (2006 to 2024)",
      "first": -2.57764,
      "first_high": -1.27708,
      "first_low": -3.87819,
      "last": -9.76488,
      "last_high": -8.23617,
      "last_low": -11.2936,
      "n_first": 9611,
      "n_last": 16895,
      "panel": "ces_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -4.80938,
      "change_high": -2.42378,
      "change_low": -7.19499,
      "cohort": "Born 1975 to 1990 (2006 to 2024)",
      "first": 12.0893,
      "first_high": 13.7169,
      "first_low": 10.4616,
      "last": 7.27987,
      "last_high": 9.02393,
      "last_low": 5.5358,
      "n_first": 4631,
      "n_last": 10549,
      "panel": "ces_pid"
    },
    {
      "change": -7.31142,
      "change_high": -0.673424,
      "change_low": -13.9494,
      "cohort": "Born 1991 or later (2010 to 2024)",
      "first": 18.6907,
      "first_high": 24.9572,
      "first_low": 12.4242,
      "last": 11.3793,
      "last_high": 13.5688,
      "last_low": 9.18979,
      "n_first": 302,
      "n_last": 8886,
      "panel": "ces_pid"
    }
  ],
  "id": "cohort_first_last",
  "notes": [
    "A cohort's first cell holds only the members old enough to vote at that election, and the first cell of an older cohort is often long after it entered the electorate. The row label gives the years of the two cells.",
    "The two ends of a row are different respondents, and the interval of the change combines their standard errors. Intervals are model based: they treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore clustering and stratification."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, presidential elections 1952-2024; weighted (post-election weight where the file has one, otherwise VCF0009z); two-party presidential voters; other views: CES and party identification as named on the buttons",
  "spec": {
    "hi1": "first_high",
    "hi2": "last_high",
    "label1": "First cell",
    "label2": "Last cell",
    "lo1": "first_low",
    "lo2": "last_low",
    "n1": "n_first",
    "n2": "n_last",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "Same as other voters",
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "first",
    "x2": "last",
    "xDomain": [
      -30,
      35
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Lead over other voters (percentage points)",
    "y": "cohort"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of a cohort's two-party voters minus the share among voters born in other years, first and last cell with enough voters; ANES presidential elections 1952 to 2024; 95% intervals; the buttons switch survey and measure",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "panel",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "cohort",
        "label": "Birth cohort and cells"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "first",
        "label": "Lead in first cell (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "first_low",
        "label": "95% interval low (first)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "first_high",
        "label": "95% interval high (first)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "last",
        "label": "Lead in last cell (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "last_low",
        "label": "95% interval low (last)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "last_high",
        "label": "95% interval high (last)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change",
        "label": "Change (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_first",
        "label": "Respondents, first cell"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_last",
        "label": "Respondents, last cell"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The vote lead of the 1975 to 1990 cohort over other voters changed by {fact:fl_anes_vote_1975_1990_chg} points in the ANES between 2004 and 2024 and by {fact:fl_ces_vote_1975_1990_chg} in the CES between 2008 and 2024",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "anes_vote"
      },
      "id": "anes_vote",
      "label": "ANES vote"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The CES gives each cohort a first cell in 2008 (2012 for the cohort born 1991 or later) and a last cell in 2024. The cohort born 1991 or later is the only cohort whose lead rises by more than sampling error, and its first cell holds only voters aged eighteen to twenty-one. Whiskers are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "ces_vote"
      },
      "id": "ces_vote",
      "label": "CES vote",
      "title": "In the CES the vote lead of the 1959 to 1974 cohort changed by {fact:fl_ces_vote_1959_1974_chg} points between 2008 and 2024 and that of the 1943 to 1958 cohort changed by {fact:fl_ces_vote_1943_1958_chg}"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each interval for the change between a cohort's first and last cell includes zero. The ANES party-identification cells are larger than its vote cells, and the intervals are still wide. Whiskers are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "anes_pid"
      },
      "id": "anes_pid",
      "label": "ANES party identification",
      "title": "In ANES party identification no cohort's lead over other identifiers changed by more than sampling error"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The 1975 to 1990 cohort changed by {fact:fl_ces_pid_1975_1990_chg} points between 2006 and 2024, and the interval for the cohort born 1943 to 1958 includes zero. The CES party-identification waves start in 2006, so the cohort born 1975 to 1990 is observed from ages eighteen to thirty-one. The lead is the cohort's Democratic share of identifiers minus the share among identifiers born in other years. Whiskers are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "panel": "ces_pid"
      },
      "id": "ces_pid",
      "label": "CES party identification",
      "title": "In CES party identification the leads of {fact:n_ces_pid_cohort_sig} of the {fact:n_ces_pid_cohorts} cohorts changed by more than sampling error between their first and last waves"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}