{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row for each of six groups of voters, showing the age gap in the Democratic vote for the pooled elections of 2008 and 2012 and for the pooled elections of 2020 and 2024, with confidence intervals. The gap among white voters is {fact:grp_white_late} in the later period and above zero. The gap among Black voters is {fact:grp_black_late} and below zero. The gap among men falls from {fact:grp_men_early} to {fact:grp_men_late}, and among women it goes from {fact:grp_women_early} to {fact:grp_women_late}. Among Hispanic voters it falls from {fact:grp_hisp_early} to {fact:grp_hisp_late}.",
  "caption": "Black voters aged sixty-five and older were more Democratic than Black voters under thirty in 2020 and 2024, the reverse of the pattern among white voters. The gap among men changed by {fact:grp_men_chg} points and the change among women, {fact:grp_women_chg}, includes zero. The ring is 2008 and 2012 pooled and the dot is 2020 and 2024 pooled. Each end is the difference of two weighted shares, and whiskers are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "change": -3.49935,
      "change_high": -0.704561,
      "change_low": -6.29414,
      "early": 21.5886,
      "early_high": 23.4576,
      "early_low": 19.7197,
      "group": "All voters",
      "late": 18.0893,
      "late_high": 20.1673,
      "late_low": 16.0113,
      "n_early": 22508,
      "n_late": 34342
    },
    {
      "change": -1.25833,
      "change_high": 2.34131,
      "change_low": -4.85798,
      "early": 17.3127,
      "early_high": 19.7192,
      "early_low": 14.9063,
      "group": "Women",
      "late": 16.0544,
      "late_high": 18.7314,
      "late_low": 13.3773,
      "n_early": 11936,
      "n_late": 18877
    },
    {
      "change": -7.08244,
      "change_high": -2.75553,
      "change_low": -11.4093,
      "early": 26.9579,
      "early_high": 29.8256,
      "early_low": 24.0903,
      "group": "Men",
      "late": 19.8755,
      "late_high": 23.1157,
      "late_low": 16.6353,
      "n_early": 10572,
      "n_late": 15342
    },
    {
      "change": 2.14898,
      "change_high": 5.43621,
      "change_low": -1.13825,
      "early": 18.0246,
      "early_high": 20.1665,
      "early_low": 15.8826,
      "group": "White",
      "late": 20.1735,
      "late_high": 22.6671,
      "late_low": 17.68,
      "n_early": 19158,
      "n_late": 26464
    },
    {
      "change": -12.8927,
      "change_high": -6.47259,
      "change_low": -19.3128,
      "early": 0.608074,
      "early_high": 4.00199,
      "early_low": -2.78584,
      "group": "Black",
      "late": -12.2846,
      "late_high": -6.83493,
      "late_low": -17.7344,
      "n_early": 1153,
      "n_late": 3055
    },
    {
      "change": -16.7567,
      "change_high": -5.227,
      "change_low": -28.2864,
      "early": 22.0574,
      "early_high": 31.1835,
      "early_low": 12.9312,
      "group": "Hispanic",
      "late": 5.30066,
      "late_high": 12.3468,
      "late_low": -1.74544,
      "n_early": 1208,
      "n_late": 2555
    }
  ],
  "id": "age_gap_groups",
  "notes": [
    "Pooling two elections gives every cell the floor of {fact:floor_n} respondents and an effective sample of {fact:floor_n}. Asian voters fall below it in the earlier period and are left out. In 2020 and 2024 pooled their gap is {fact:grp_asian_late}.",
    "Race is the CES single-race category with Hispanic voters of any race as a separate group, and the groups overlap with the gender rows. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel. Intervals are model based: they treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore clustering and stratification."
  ],
  "source": "CES Cumulative File, presidential elections 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters; elections pooled in two groups",
  "spec": {
    "hi1": "early_high",
    "hi2": "late_high",
    "label1": "2008 and 2012",
    "label2": "2020 and 2024",
    "lo1": "early_low",
    "lo2": "late_low",
    "n1": "n_early",
    "n2": "n_late",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No difference",
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "early",
    "x2": "late",
    "xDomain": [
      -25,
      40
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Youngest minus oldest group (percentage points)",
    "y": "group"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of two-party voters aged 18 to 29 minus the share among voters aged 65 and over, by gender and race, CES 2008 and 2012 pooled and 2020 and 2024 pooled; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Voters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "early",
        "label": "Gap 2008 and 2012 (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "early_low",
        "label": "95% interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "early_high",
        "label": "95% interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_early",
        "label": "Respondents, early"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "late",
        "label": "Gap 2020 and 2024 (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "late_low",
        "label": "95% interval low (late)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "late_high",
        "label": "95% interval high (late)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_late",
        "label": "Respondents, late"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change",
        "label": "Change (points)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In 2020 and 2024 the age gap in the vote was {fact:grp_white_late} points among white voters and {fact:grp_black_late} among Black voters",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "width": "wide"
}