{
  "alt": "Line chart of the gap in the Democratic two-party vote between the youngest and oldest age groups for each presidential election, with confidence bands and a line at zero. The ANES line is close to zero in most elections before 2004, above zero in 1964, 1972 and from 2004 to 2020, and falls to {fact:anes_gap_2024} in 2024. The CES line runs from {fact:ces_gap_2008} in 2008 to {fact:ces_gap_2020} in 2020 and {fact:ces_gap_2024} in 2024. A third line for matched voters with the validated-voter weight has two points, {fact:ces_matched_gap_2020} in 2020 and {fact:ces_vv_gap_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The CES gap is above zero in every election and lower in 2024 than in 2020 among all voters. Among voters whose registration was matched to voter-file records the 2020 gap, {fact:ces_matched_gap_2020}, and the 2024 gap with the validated-voter weight, {fact:ces_vv_gap_2024}, are within sampling error of each other, and the change among all voters differs from the change among matched voters by {fact:diff_in_changes_std} points. The ANES gap is {fact:anes_gap_2020} in 2020 and {fact:anes_gap_2024} in 2024, from a 2024 sample that exceeds the certified count by {fact:anes_lean_2024} points. A gap above zero means the youngest group is more Democratic. Each point is the difference of two weighted shares, and the bands are 95% intervals. The other buttons show the CES by weight, split the ANES by interview mode and show party identification.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 16.2086,
      "conf_low": -4.92655,
      "estimate": 5.64103,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 332,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.0455,
      "conf_low": -12.6137,
      "estimate": -1.78409,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 326,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": null,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.274,
      "conf_low": 6.61245,
      "estimate": 16.9432,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 325,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.3166,
      "conf_low": -11.6576,
      "estimate": -0.170503,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 291,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.0656,
      "conf_low": 7.63196,
      "estimate": 15.3488,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 637,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.8931,
      "conf_low": -5.69382,
      "estimate": 3.09964,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 517,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.37624,
      "conf_low": -15.5947,
      "estimate": -5.10924,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 345,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.06898,
      "conf_low": -8.52456,
      "estimate": 0.272207,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 490,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.63938,
      "conf_low": -9.76148,
      "estimate": -0.0610501,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 416,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.7734,
      "conf_low": -5.91929,
      "estimate": 2.92705,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 488,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": null,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": null,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.3481,
      "conf_low": 1.43376,
      "estimate": 13.8909,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 283,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.0044,
      "conf_low": 12.1752,
      "estimate": 22.5898,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 516,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.8464,
      "conf_low": 8.58948,
      "estimate": 15.7179,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 1484,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.6896,
      "conf_low": 7.24602,
      "estimate": 15.4678,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 978,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.0758,
      "conf_low": 10.9582,
      "estimate": 17.017,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 2471,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.0901,
      "conf_low": -9.35665,
      "estimate": -1.13327,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 1675,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.0928,
      "conf_low": 21.827,
      "estimate": 24.4599,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 7804,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.4448,
      "conf_low": 16.0102,
      "estimate": 18.7275,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 14704,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.3269,
      "conf_low": 20.4469,
      "estimate": 22.8869,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 13890,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.4469,
      "conf_low": 19.9113,
      "estimate": 22.1791,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 16255,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.284,
      "conf_low": 11.8103,
      "estimate": 15.0471,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 18087,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.4262,
      "conf_low": 20.1359,
      "estimate": 22.781,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 13317,
      "series": "CES, matched voters, validated-voter weight",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.8919,
      "conf_low": 19.057,
      "estimate": 22.9745,
      "group": "vote",
      "n": 14103,
      "series": "CES, matched voters, validated-voter weight",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.0044,
      "conf_low": 12.1752,
      "estimate": 22.5898,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 516,
      "series": "ANES, all interviews",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.8464,
      "conf_low": 8.58948,
      "estimate": 15.7179,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 1484,
      "series": "ANES, all interviews",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.6896,
      "conf_low": 7.24602,
      "estimate": 15.4678,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 978,
      "series": "ANES, all interviews",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.0758,
      "conf_low": 10.9582,
      "estimate": 17.017,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 2471,
      "series": "ANES, all interviews",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.0901,
      "conf_low": -9.35665,
      "estimate": -1.13327,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 1675,
      "series": "ANES, all interviews",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.3119,
      "conf_low": 9.15864,
      "estimate": 21.7353,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 446,
      "series": "ANES, face to face",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.4692,
      "conf_low": 4.15314,
      "estimate": 12.8112,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 1038,
      "series": "ANES, web",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.6553,
      "conf_low": 10.0025,
      "estimate": 19.3289,
      "group": "mode",
      "n": 683,
      "series": "ANES, web",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.0928,
      "conf_low": 21.827,
      "estimate": 24.4599,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 7804,
      "series": "CES, standard weight",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.4448,
      "conf_low": 16.0102,
      "estimate": 18.7275,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 14704,
      "series": "CES, standard weight",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.3269,
      "conf_low": 20.4469,
      "estimate": 22.8869,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 13890,
      "series": "CES, standard weight",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.4469,
      "conf_low": 19.9113,
      "estimate": 22.1791,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 16255,
      "series": "CES, standard weight",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.284,
      "conf_low": 11.8103,
      "estimate": 15.0471,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 18087,
      "series": "CES, standard weight",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.5555,
      "conf_low": 17.2319,
      "estimate": 19.8937,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 14704,
      "series": "CES, post-election weight",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.0488,
      "conf_low": 19.69,
      "estimate": 22.3694,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 13890,
      "series": "CES, post-election weight",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.9015,
      "conf_low": 17.8529,
      "estimate": 20.3772,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 16254,
      "series": "CES, post-election weight",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.4262,
      "conf_low": 20.1359,
      "estimate": 22.781,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 13317,
      "series": "CES, matched voters, validated-voter weight",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.8919,
      "conf_low": 19.057,
      "estimate": 22.9745,
      "group": "weight",
      "n": 14103,
      "series": "CES, matched voters, validated-voter weight",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.0297,
      "conf_low": 1.35099,
      "estimate": 10.1904,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 486,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.9829,
      "conf_low": -0.93882,
      "estimate": 8.52204,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 438,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": null,
      "conf_low": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": null,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.3397,
      "conf_low": 8.97054,
      "estimate": 17.6551,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 472,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.05556,
      "conf_low": -8.58985,
      "estimate": 0.232854,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 469,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.8444,
      "conf_low": 1.19438,
      "estimate": 7.51937,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 973,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.929,
      "conf_low": 0.321037,
      "estimate": 7.12504,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 825,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.3646,
      "conf_low": -10.551,
      "estimate": -2.59318,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 588,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.6926,
      "conf_low": -2.11008,
      "estimate": 4.79126,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 815,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.12484,
      "conf_low": -12.6456,
      "estimate": -5.26039,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 704,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.687929,
      "conf_low": -12.8058,
      "estimate": -6.05894,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 832,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.76145,
      "conf_low": -8.55415,
      "estimate": 0.603649,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 548,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.1476,
      "conf_low": -7.83105,
      "estimate": 1.65825,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 505,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.6341,
      "conf_low": -1.8098,
      "estimate": 8.91213,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 393,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.9916,
      "conf_low": 4.12059,
      "estimate": 13.0561,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 711,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.1921,
      "conf_low": 0.882285,
      "estimate": 7.0372,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 1853,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.5867,
      "conf_low": 3.78477,
      "estimate": 10.1857,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 1395,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.8188,
      "conf_low": 9.17101,
      "estimate": 14.4949,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 2883,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.58879,
      "conf_low": -4.72152,
      "estimate": 1.93364,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 2110,
      "series": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.4163,
      "conf_low": 14.1643,
      "estimate": 16.2903,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 9392,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2006
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.2811,
      "conf_low": 17.5538,
      "estimate": 19.9174,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 9848,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.8888,
      "conf_low": 18.696,
      "estimate": 21.2924,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 15016,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2010
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.732,
      "conf_low": 15.1884,
      "estimate": 17.4602,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 17855,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.8547,
      "conf_low": 12.105,
      "estimate": 14.4798,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 17157,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2014
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.3628,
      "conf_low": 12.2649,
      "estimate": 14.3138,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 18625,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.2524,
      "conf_low": 15.1135,
      "estimate": 17.1829,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 20577,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.9847,
      "conf_low": 12.9044,
      "estimate": 14.9446,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 20364,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.2556,
      "conf_low": 19.0415,
      "estimate": 21.1485,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 20148,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.5346,
      "conf_low": 11.2416,
      "estimate": 13.8881,
      "group": "pid",
      "n": 22842,
      "series": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "age_gap",
  "notes": [
    "A cell is plotted only when it has {fact:floor_n} or more respondents and a Kish effective sample size (the sample size after weighting) of {fact:floor_n} or more, the floor of this chapter. A blank cell leaves a gap in the line. Three ANES elections (1960, 1996 and 2000) have too few voters under thirty for a published gap and show a break in the line.",
    "The matched-voter series uses voters with a validated-voter weight, the CES weight for voters whose registration was matched to voter-file records (validated registered voters), which exists for 2018 to 2024 in the file. In 2020 it is a constant multiple of the standard weight. The post-election weight exists for 2012, 2016 and 2020.",
    "In the mode view the face-to-face gap for 2016 and the face-to-face and web gaps for 2024 fall below the floor and are not drawn. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals describe sampling variation among panel members and leave out how respondents joined the panel."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, presidential elections 1952-2024; weighted (post-election weight where the file has one, otherwise VCF0009z); two-party presidential voters; CES weighted (weight_cumulative; vvweight for the matched-voter series)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No difference",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "ANES": "cat1",
      "CES": "cat2",
      "CES, matched voters, validated-voter weight": "cat3"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1952,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Presidential election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -20,
      40
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Youngest minus oldest group (percentage points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of two-party voters aged 18 to 29 minus the share among voters aged 65 and over, ANES 1952 to 2024 and CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Survey and weight"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Year"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% interval low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% interval high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents in the two groups"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Between 2020 and 2024 the CES age gap in the vote changed by {fact:ces_chg_2024} points among all voters and by {fact:ces_matched_std_chg}, an interval that includes zero, among matched voters",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "group": "vote"
      },
      "id": "vote",
      "label": "Vote"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The standard CES weight is proportional to the pre-election weight, and the vote is a post-election item. The post-election weight exists for 2012, 2016 and 2020 only and gives gaps within a few points of the standard weight. The change from 2020 with the post-election weight to 2024 with the standard weight is {fact:ces_post_chg_2024}, an interval that excludes zero. The matched-voter line uses the validated-voter weight. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "group": "weight"
      },
      "id": "weight",
      "label": "CES vote by weight",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "label": "No difference",
            "type": "y-rule",
            "y": 0
          }
        ],
        "colors": {
          "CES, matched voters, validated-voter weight": "cat3",
          "CES, post-election weight": "cat1",
          "CES, standard weight": "cat2"
        },
        "xDomain": [
          2008,
          2024
        ],
        "xTicks": "data",
        "yDomain": [
          0,
          35
        ]
      },
      "title": "With the post-election weight the CES age gap was {fact:ces_post_gap_2012} in 2012, {fact:ces_post_gap_2016} in 2016 and {fact:ces_post_gap_2020} in 2020"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Within the web sample the age gap in 2012 and 2016 is above zero, and the face-to-face sample has enough respondents under thirty only in 2012. In 2024 neither mode has a published cell for the youngest group, so the ANES cannot show whether the 2024 fall depends on interview mode. The lines for 2012, 2016 and 2024 are separate estimates, and the 2020 study has no mode weights. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "group": "mode"
      },
      "id": "mode",
      "label": "ANES vote by interview mode",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "label": "No difference",
            "type": "y-rule",
            "y": 0
          }
        ],
        "breaks": [
          2020
        ],
        "colors": {
          "ANES, all interviews": "total",
          "ANES, face to face": "cat1",
          "ANES, web": "cat2"
        },
        "xDomain": [
          2008,
          2024
        ],
        "xTicks": "data",
        "yDomain": [
          -20,
          40
        ]
      },
      "title": "In the ANES web sample the age gap was {fact:anes_web_gap_2012} in 2012 and {fact:anes_web_gap_2016} in 2016, and the 2024 samples are too small to split by mode"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The gap is the Democratic share among party identifiers aged eighteen to twenty-nine minus the share among identifiers sixty-five and older, leaners included. The ANES estimate for 2024 is {fact:anes_pid_gap_2024}, an interval that includes zero, and the CES estimate is {fact:ces_pid_gap_2024}. Bands are 95% intervals.",
      "filter": {
        "group": "pid"
      },
      "id": "pid",
      "label": "Party identification",
      "spec": {
        "colors": {
          "ANES": "cat1",
          "CES": "cat2"
        },
        "xDomain": [
          1952,
          2024
        ],
        "yDomain": [
          -20,
          40
        ]
      },
      "title": "The CES gap in party identification was between {fact:ces_pid_gap_min} and {fact:ces_pid_gap_max} points in every even year from 2006 to 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}