# Party and ideology: report

Chapter 1.1 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Party and ideology
- Chapter: 1.1 (Part I, Labels and beliefs; Labels, sorting and partisan feeling)
- Question: How much more closely did party identification and ideological self-placement come to line up, and did the change happen inside every group?
- Dek: Among ANES respondents, the correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement rose from +0.32 in 1972 to +0.72 in 2024.
- Grain: individuals
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-09-30
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - ANES Cumulative Data File. ANES Time Series Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024: seven-point party identification and seven-point liberal-conservative scale; interview mode from the mode weights (2008, 2012, 2016, 2024); years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for interview mode
  - General Social Survey. General Social Survey, 1974-2024: partyid and polviews; interview mode joined from the raw file (from 2004); years: 1972-2024 (35 study years); weights: weight_use
  - Cooperative Election Study. Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, 2006-2024: pid7 and ideo5; years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years); weights: weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled waves)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026partyandideology

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026partyandideology,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Party and ideology},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1972 | +0.32 | 95% CI 0.27 to 0.36 | 1,545 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | anes_r_1972 |
| weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | +0.72 | 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74 | 4,716 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | anes_r_2024 |
| weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1974 | +0.17 | 95% CI 0.12 to 0.23 | 1,345 | weight_use | General Social Survey | gss_r_1974 |
| weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | +0.63 | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.66 | 3,062 | weight_use | General Social Survey | gss_r_2024 |

## Findings

Among respondents to the American National Election Studies (ANES) who answered both questions, the correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement rose from +0.32 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.36) in 1972 to +0.72 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.74) in 2024. A correlation measures linear association, how closely self-placement rises along a straight line as party identification moves from strong Democrat to strong Republican. A value near zero means that no straight line links the two answers, and a value near one means that the party scale nearly fixes the placement along that line. In the General Social Survey (GSS) the correlation rose from +0.17 in 1974 to +0.63 in 2024.

Party identification is a seven-point scale from strong Democrat to strong Republican, and leaners keep their own points on it. Self-placement runs from extremely liberal to extremely conservative on a seven-point scale in the ANES and the GSS and on a five-point scale in the Cooperative Election Study (CES), which starts in 2006. Every correlation, difference and share is weighted (survey weights) and carries a confidence interval, shown in parentheses or in the popover on the number.

Researchers call the movement of liberals into the Democratic Party and of conservatives into the Republican Party the partisan sort [1], and the wider alignment of party with traits such as religion, race and place party sorting. Early survey research found that most Americans' answers to separate political questions were only loosely tied together [2], and work on the ANES of the 1970s to 1990s found party identification realigning along ideological lines [3].

Both measures here are labels. Agreement between the party label and the ideology label is not agreement on issues. Planned, Constraint among issue positions (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/constraint-among-issue-positions; planned) asks whether issue positions are more tightly bundled than they were in the 1980s, and Chapter 1.2, Economic and cultural dimensions (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions) asks whether economic and cultural conservatism form one dimension or two. This chapter measures how far the two labels merged, whether the three surveys agree on the size of the change, and whether the change appears inside every group. Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened) describes the change by birth cohort, which cannot show whether individuals changed, and Chapter 4.7, Sort dates by attitude (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude) dates the point at which particular attitudes became divided by party.

### The correlation over time on three surveys

Table 1 plots the correlation for each survey year. (Note: Each interval is computed on the Fisher z transformation of the correlation, which makes its sampling error close to normal [4], with the Kish effective sample size [5] in place of the number of respondents. It treats the weighted sample as a simple random sample, so it does not follow the sampling design, which selects respondents in clusters within sampled areas; the section on interview mode reports the design-based check that was possible. A difference between two surveys combines their two standard errors, because the surveys share no respondents.) The CES, which starts in 2006, goes from +0.66 in that year to +0.72 in 2024, so all three surveys end higher than they start, at different levels. The ANES correlation stayed between +0.32 and +0.41 in every survey year from 1972 through 1990. Every ANES estimate from 1992 on is higher than the 1982 estimate, the highest before 1992. The highest GSS estimate before 1993 is +0.31 in 1986, and every GSS estimate from 1993 on is higher.

Table 1. The party-ideology correlation ended higher than it began on all three surveys

Both series also rose earlier, and the ANES estimate for 1992 and the GSS estimate for 1993 do not differ detectably from the earlier peaks, so neither series dates the step to a single year. (Note: The ANES correlation went from +0.32 in 1972 to +0.41 in 1982, a change of +0.09 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.16), and the GSS correlation went from +0.14 in 1980 to +0.31 in 1986, a change of +0.17 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.25). The 1992 ANES estimate minus the 1982 estimate is +0.02 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.09), and the 1993 GSS estimate minus the 1986 estimate is +0.02 (95% CI −0.05 to 0.10).)

The chapter compares two windows, 1980 to 1988 and 2020 to 2024, each estimated from all respondents in its survey years together (pooled). In the ANES the pooled correlation is +0.39 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.41) for 1980 to 1988 and +0.73 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.74) for 2020 to 2024, a change of +0.34 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.36). The 2020 estimate is +0.74 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.75), and the 2024 minus 2020 difference is −0.01 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.01), an interval that includes zero, so the ANES shows no further rise between 2020 and 2024. The GSS goes from +0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29) pooled over 1980 to 1988 to +0.63 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.65) pooled over 2021, 2022 and 2024, a change of +0.37 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.40).

The CES has no reading before 2006, when its correlation of +0.66 was already above the ANES and GSS readings of that period, and it is +0.69 pooled over 2020 to 2024. Its 2024 minus 2006 difference is +0.06 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.07), but the path in between is not steady. The CES correlation falls from +0.68 in 2008 to +0.59 in 2016, a change of −0.09 (95% CI −0.10 to −0.08), while the ANES 2016 minus 2008 difference is +0.08 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.13).

#### The surveys sit at different levels

The three lines end higher than they start and do not coincide. The differences view of Table 1 subtracts the GSS correlation from the ANES correlation in each of the 19 years in which both surveys ran. The ANES correlation is the higher of the two in all 19 of them, and the interval of the difference is above zero in 17 and includes zero in the other 2. The mean of the yearly differences is +0.14 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.15), and the difference ranges from +0.05 (95% CI −0.02 to 0.12) in 1990 to +0.24 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.33) in 1980. It is present in both windows: +0.13 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.16) pooled over 1980 to 1988 and +0.10 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.12) pooled over 2020 to 2024. The ANES figure for the 1980s therefore describes the ANES and does not stand in for the GSS.

The CES does not sit on the ANES path either. The ANES minus CES difference is −0.06 (95% CI −0.10 to −0.03) in 2008 and +0.11 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.13) in 2016, and it averages +0.02 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.03) over the years in which both surveys ran. In the pooled 2020 to 2024 window the ANES minus CES difference is +0.04 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.05) and the CES minus GSS difference is +0.05 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.07), so no two of the three surveys give the same level in that window.

The surveys differ in sampling frame, interview mode, the number of points on the ideology scale and the way a respondent who declines to place themselves is recorded. These data do not identify which of those differences produces the level differences. The chapter therefore reports each survey at its own level and compares changes within each survey.

### Interview mode and the level difference

Both the ANES and the GSS added web interviews, and a change in survey mode can move a correlation without any change in the public. The files identify mode for some years only: the ANES mode weights cover 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024, and the GSS records mode from 2004. Table 2 splits the GSS estimates by mode. The in-person view of Table 1 uses the recorded mode where there is one. For earlier years it keeps all respondents, on the ground that those studies were mainly in person, and it leaves out the ANES studies of 1998, 2000 and 2002, which used telephone interviews wholly or in part.

Table 2. In the GSS, web respondents show a higher correlation than in-person respondents

In the GSS the web minus in-person difference is +0.11 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.17) in 2022 and +0.14 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.21) in 2024. The 2021 GSS was mostly web and has no in-person estimate. Among in-person respondents the GSS correlation is +0.55 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.59) in 2018 and +0.56 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.61) in 2024, two readings whose intervals overlap, while the estimate over all interviews goes from +0.56 to +0.63. Pooled over 2022 and 2024, the in-person correlation is +0.58 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.62), against +0.63 for all interviews pooled over 2021, 2022 and 2024. The GSS rise of the 2020s therefore combines any change among Americans with a change in how the GSS interviewed them, and these data cannot separate the two.

Standard errors that follow the sampling design leave these results in place. The web minus in-person difference is +0.11 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.18) in 2022 and +0.14 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.24) in 2024, with intervals above zero, and the in-person estimate for 2024 minus the one for 2018 is 0.00 (95% CI −0.09 to 0.10), an interval that includes zero. (Note: The GSS files carry the stratum and the primary sampling unit of each respondent. A jackknife that leaves out one primary sampling unit at a time within its stratum gives design-based standard errors for the 7 GSS year-and-mode cells quoted in this section. They are 1.13 to 1.68 times the model-based standard errors, which treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample. The same check was not made for the ANES or the CES.)

In the ANES, the web minus face-to-face difference is −0.02 (95% CI −0.07 to 0.03) in 2012, +0.04 (95% CI −0.01 to 0.09) in 2016 and +0.03 (95% CI −0.02 to 0.08) in 2024, and each interval includes zero. The face-to-face ANES estimate for 2024 is +0.72 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.77), against +0.72 for all interviews.

Mode does not remove the level difference between the ANES and the GSS. The in-person line of the differences view of Table 1 compares face-to-face ANES respondents with in-person GSS respondents. The mean of the ANES minus GSS differences is +0.16 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.19) over the 4 years in which both files identify in-person interviews, and the 2024 difference is +0.16 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.24). Among web respondents in 2024 the ANES minus GSS difference is +0.05 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.09).

### Distance between the party averages

The correlation measures how well one answer predicts the other. A second measure asks how far apart the parties' supporters sit on the ideology scale. For each survey year, take the mean placement of Republican identifiers, leaners included, and subtract the mean placement of Democratic identifiers. In the ANES that difference was 0.9 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.0) points on the seven-point scale in 1972 and 2.4 (95% CI 2.3 to 2.5) points in 2024.

Table 3 divides the difference by a standard deviation of placements, so that surveys with different scales can be compared. Dividing by the ANES standard deviation across all years, 1.48 scale points, gives 0.58 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.67) in 1972 and 1.60 (95% CI 1.53 to 1.67) in 2024. The 2024 value means that the average Republican identifier places themselves 1.60 standard deviations to the right of the average Democratic identifier, where a standard deviation is the ANES figure above. The unit is fixed across years, so a change in the value is a change in the distance between two averages. The value says nothing about how spread out the electorate is on either side of the middle.

Dividing instead by the standard deviation of the same year gives 0.68 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.78) in 1972 and 1.43 (95% CI 1.37 to 1.50) in 2024. The rise is smaller under this scaling because the spread of ANES placements within a year also grew, from 1.28 scale points in 1972 to 1.66 in 2024.

The GSS series goes from 0.39 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.50) in 1974 to 1.50 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.60) in 2024 and the CES series from 1.32 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.34) in 2006 to 1.60 (95% CI 1.58 to 1.62) in 2024. The ANES series is higher than the GSS series in 19 of the 19 years that both ran, with each survey in its own standard deviations, and the interval of the difference lies above zero in 15 of them. In 2024 the ANES minus GSS difference is +0.10 (95% CI −0.02 to 0.23), an interval that includes zero. The CES series begins above the GSS series.

Table 3. The two parties' average placements moved further apart on all three surveys

### The rise inside every group

Table 4 re-estimates the ANES correlation by year inside three birth cohorts, three education groups and two regions. In each of the 8 groups the line ends above where it starts. Table 5 compares the pooled 1980 to 1988 window with the pooled 2020 to 2024 window. Of the 7 groups with a reading in both windows, which is every group except the youngest cohort, 7 rose by an amount whose interval lies above zero.

Table 4. The correlation rose inside every cohort, education and region group in the ANES

The groups started at different levels. In 1980 to 1988 the correlation was +0.26 among people with a high school education or less and +0.61 among college graduates, and it was +0.31 in the South against +0.44 in the rest of the country. College graduates rose less than either of the other two education groups. The change among college graduates minus the change among people with a high school education or less is −0.17 (95% CI −0.23 to −0.11), and minus the change among people with some college it is −0.12 (95% CI −0.18 to −0.07). A correlation cannot pass one, so a group that starts at +0.61 has less room to rise than a group that starts at +0.26.

The differences between groups are smaller in 2020 to 2024. The three education groups stand at +0.62 to +0.80, against +0.26 to +0.61 in 1980 to 1988, and the South, at +0.71, is still below the rest of the country, at +0.75, by less than in 1980 to 1988.

Table 5. The correlation rose in every group, and less among college graduates than among other education groups

Respondents born before 1943 went from +0.41 to +0.67, a change of +0.25 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.32). Respondents born in 1975 or later, who were too young for the earlier window, stand at +0.74 in the 2020s. The two smallest changes of the 7 groups belong to college graduates and to people born before 1943. The chapter does not compare those two changes with an interval, because a college graduate can also be born before 1943 and the two groups overlap; changes are compared only between groups of one classification.

The GSS gives the same result for the groups it can define: among in-person respondents in 2020 to 2024, 3 of the 3 groups with a reading in both windows rose by an amount whose interval lies above zero.

A cohort is not a fixed set of people. The group born before 1943 in the 2020s consists of its oldest surviving members who agreed to be interviewed, so a rise inside a cohort does not show that the same people changed. Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened) follows the cohorts and states what that comparison cannot show.

### Partisans and their camps

Table 6 counts the party's identifiers, leaners included, who place themselves left of the middle, at the middle or right of the middle. On the seven-point scales, left and right of the middle include slightly liberal and slightly conservative. In the ANES the liberal share of Democrats who placed themselves rose from 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) in 1972 to 62% (95% CI 59% to 65%) in 2024, and the conservative share of Republicans rose from 53% (95% CI 49% to 57%) to 77% (95% CI 75% to 80%). The opposite camps shrank: conservative Democrats went from 25% to 8%, and liberal Republicans from 13% to 4%. The GSS shows the same direction, with liberal Democrats going from 36% in 1974 to 59% in 2024 and conservative Republicans from 42% to 71%. In the CES, which starts in 2006, the liberal share of Democrats rose and the conservative share of Republicans did not change detectably.

Table 6. Larger shares of Democrats are liberal and of Republicans conservative than in the 1970s

These shares describe people who placed themselves. In the ANES the share of respondents with a party answer who placed themselves was 57% (95% CI 55% to 59%) in 1972 and 84% (95% CI 82% to 85%) in 2024, so the 1972 correlation describes a smaller share of respondents than the 2024 correlation. (Note: In 2000 only 34% of ANES respondents with a party answer have a placement, and in 2002 only 48% of GSS respondents do; the GSS pattern repeats in 1983 and 2004. Those years carry smaller samples, and the placement rates quoted here come from other years.) The GSS placement rate was 96% in 1974 and 96% in 2024, and its correlation rose over that span from +0.17 to +0.63, so a change in who places themselves cannot be the only source of the rise.

### What these data cannot show

The data are repeated cross-sections, so they show that party and self-placement became more tightly linked and do not show which of the two changed. A panel study that followed the same people found movement in both directions: some changed party identification to match their issue positions, and others changed issue positions to match their party [6]. A study of issue attitudes over 1972 to 2004 found that attitudes came to line up with party more than they lined up with each other [7]. The rise in the correlation here is a rise in the link between two labels and is silent on which label moved first.

Self-placement is a label. Its meaning for respondents draws partly on their feelings toward the groups and symbols tied to each label [8], and the public is more likely to call itself conservative than liberal while favoring more government action on many problems [9]. A rise in the correlation between party and label is not a rise in the correlation between party and any set of policy positions. The correlation also says nothing about extremity, and the distance between party averages in scale points is a separate measure.

The three surveys give different levels, and these data cannot say which is closer to the level in the population. The GSS reading of the 2020s mixes web and in-person interviews that give different correlations, and the ANES mode weights are missing for 2020, so mode is identified in only some years. Every estimate describes respondents who placed themselves, and the share who did so differs between ANES years. The intervals are model based and do not follow the sampling design. Where the design could be checked, in the GSS cells behind the mode comparison, the design-based standard errors were 1.13 to 1.68 times the model-based ones. The ANES and CES intervals were not checked that way, and the CES intervals rest on the weighting of an online panel of volunteers to population totals.

The data hold no measure of what party leaders did. They cannot say whether the electorate moved toward parties that had moved apart or the parties moved apart because the electorate had. Planned, Polarization in Congress (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/polarization-in-congress; planned) takes up how far apart the parties are in Congress.

## Tables

### Table 1. The party-ideology correlation ended higher than it began on all three surveys

Weighted correlation between party identification (seven-point scale, leaners kept) and liberal-conservative self-placement, respondents who answered both, ANES 1972 to 2024, GSS 1974 to 2024, CES 2006 to 2024, with 95% intervals; the differences view plots the ANES value minus each other survey's value in the same year

| Survey | Respondents included | Year | Estimate | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| ANES | All interviews | 1972 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.36 | 1,545 | 1,545 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1974 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.39 | 1,140 | 857 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1976 | +0.38 | +0.33 | +0.42 | 1,497 | 1,441 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1978 | +0.35 | +0.31 | +0.39 | 1,658 | 1,658 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1980 | +0.39 | +0.33 | +0.44 | 1,004 | 1,004 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1982 | +0.41 | +0.36 | +0.47 | 891 | 891 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1984 | +0.41 | +0.37 | +0.45 | 1,546 | 1,546 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1986 | +0.36 | +0.32 | +0.41 | 1,622 | 1,622 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1988 | +0.40 | +0.36 | +0.45 | 1,419 | 1,419 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1990 | +0.34 | +0.29 | +0.39 | 1,315 | 1,315 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1992 | +0.44 | +0.40 | +0.47 | 1,819 | 1,812 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1994 | +0.51 | +0.46 | +0.55 | 1,398 | 1,144 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1996 | +0.54 | +0.50 | +0.58 | 1,326 | 1,070 |
| ANES | All interviews | 1998 | +0.44 | +0.39 | +0.49 | 1,012 | 858 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2000 | +0.47 | +0.40 | +0.53 | 669 | 546 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2002 | +0.52 | +0.47 | +0.57 | 1,223 | 828 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2004 | +0.58 | +0.53 | +0.63 | 913 | 766 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2008 | +0.61 | +0.57 | +0.65 | 1,607 | 1,053 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2012 | +0.61 | +0.59 | +0.63 | 5,288 | 2,970 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2016 | +0.70 | +0.68 | +0.72 | 3,298 | 2,332 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2020 | +0.74 | +0.72 | +0.75 | 7,041 | 3,929 |
| ANES | All interviews | 2024 | +0.72 | +0.70 | +0.74 | 4,716 | 2,228 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1974 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.23 | 1,345 | 1,122 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1975 | +0.23 | +0.18 | +0.29 | 1,384 | 1,136 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1976 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.27 | 1,393 | 1,137 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1977 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.27 | 1,440 | 1,160 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1978 | +0.16 | +0.09 | +0.22 | 1,422 | 885 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1980 | +0.14 | +0.08 | +0.21 | 1,418 | 941 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1982 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.30 | 1,723 | 1,032 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1983 | +0.28 | +0.20 | +0.36 | 763 | 482 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1984 | +0.26 | +0.20 | +0.32 | 1,386 | 889 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1985 | +0.28 | +0.22 | +0.34 | 1,444 | 919 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1986 | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.36 | 1,390 | 1,132 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1987 | +0.31 | +0.25 | +0.36 | 1,666 | 1,126 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1988 | +0.30 | +0.24 | +0.35 | 1,411 | 1,139 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1989 | +0.27 | +0.21 | +0.32 | 1,429 | 1,127 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1990 | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.35 | 1,301 | 1,023 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1991 | +0.26 | +0.20 | +0.31 | 1,443 | 1,105 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1993 | +0.34 | +0.28 | +0.38 | 1,528 | 1,196 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1994 | +0.37 | +0.34 | +0.41 | 2,806 | 2,204 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1996 | +0.38 | +0.35 | +0.42 | 2,702 | 2,168 |
| GSS | All interviews | 1998 | +0.36 | +0.32 | +0.40 | 2,622 | 2,033 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2000 | +0.34 | +0.30 | +0.38 | 2,593 | 2,038 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2002 | +0.37 | +0.31 | +0.42 | 1,299 | 944 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2004 | +0.43 | +0.38 | +0.48 | 1,289 | 937 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2006 | +0.47 | +0.44 | +0.50 | 4,253 | 2,952 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2008 | +0.48 | +0.44 | +0.52 | 1,890 | 1,324 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2010 | +0.50 | +0.46 | +0.54 | 1,914 | 1,231 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2012 | +0.47 | +0.42 | +0.51 | 1,815 | 1,153 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2014 | +0.50 | +0.46 | +0.53 | 2,368 | 1,734 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2016 | +0.50 | +0.46 | +0.53 | 2,668 | 1,782 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2018 | +0.56 | +0.52 | +0.60 | 2,149 | 1,285 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2021 | +0.64 | +0.62 | +0.67 | 3,833 | 2,501 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2022 | +0.63 | +0.59 | +0.66 | 3,303 | 1,304 |
| GSS | All interviews | 2024 | +0.63 | +0.60 | +0.66 | 3,062 | 1,557 |
| CES | All interviews | 2006 | +0.66 | +0.65 | +0.67 | 33,755 | 26,295 |
| CES | All interviews | 2007 | +0.68 | +0.67 | +0.70 | 8,787 | 4,593 |
| CES | All interviews | 2008 | +0.68 | +0.67 | +0.68 | 29,939 | 20,888 |
| CES | All interviews | 2009 | +0.66 | +0.64 | +0.67 | 12,229 | 9,223 |
| CES | All interviews | 2010 | +0.66 | +0.65 | +0.66 | 51,574 | 20,318 |
| CES | All interviews | 2011 | +0.60 | +0.58 | +0.61 | 18,329 | 8,715 |
| CES | All interviews | 2012 | +0.63 | +0.62 | +0.64 | 48,972 | 21,136 |
| CES | All interviews | 2013 | +0.60 | +0.58 | +0.61 | 14,712 | 7,302 |
| CES | All interviews | 2014 | +0.62 | +0.61 | +0.63 | 49,876 | 21,741 |
| CES | All interviews | 2015 | +0.63 | +0.61 | +0.64 | 12,807 | 6,907 |
| CES | All interviews | 2016 | +0.59 | +0.58 | +0.60 | 58,788 | 30,529 |
| CES | All interviews | 2017 | +0.63 | +0.62 | +0.65 | 16,356 | 7,800 |
| CES | All interviews | 2018 | +0.68 | +0.68 | +0.69 | 54,063 | 25,503 |
| CES | All interviews | 2019 | +0.69 | +0.68 | +0.70 | 16,478 | 9,481 |
| CES | All interviews | 2020 | +0.69 | +0.68 | +0.69 | 55,395 | 27,431 |
| CES | All interviews | 2021 | +0.69 | +0.68 | +0.70 | 23,450 | 13,577 |
| CES | All interviews | 2022 | +0.70 | +0.69 | +0.70 | 54,964 | 24,917 |
| CES | All interviews | 2023 | +0.65 | +0.64 | +0.66 | 22,029 | 12,323 |
| CES | All interviews | 2024 | +0.72 | +0.71 | +0.73 | 55,835 | 18,536 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1972 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.36 | 1,545 | 1,545 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1974 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.39 | 1,140 | 857 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1976 | +0.38 | +0.33 | +0.42 | 1,497 | 1,441 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1978 | +0.35 | +0.31 | +0.39 | 1,658 | 1,658 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1980 | +0.39 | +0.33 | +0.44 | 1,004 | 1,004 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1982 | +0.41 | +0.36 | +0.47 | 891 | 891 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1984 | +0.41 | +0.37 | +0.45 | 1,546 | 1,546 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1986 | +0.36 | +0.32 | +0.41 | 1,622 | 1,622 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1988 | +0.40 | +0.36 | +0.45 | 1,419 | 1,419 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1990 | +0.34 | +0.29 | +0.39 | 1,315 | 1,315 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1992 | +0.44 | +0.40 | +0.47 | 1,819 | 1,812 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1994 | +0.51 | +0.46 | +0.55 | 1,398 | 1,144 |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 1996 | +0.54 | +0.50 | +0.58 | 1,326 | 1,070 |
| ANES | Left out: telephone or mixed-mode study | 1998 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ANES | Left out: telephone or mixed-mode study | 2000 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ANES | Left out: telephone or mixed-mode study | 2002 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ANES | All respondents (mode not recorded before 2008) | 2004 | +0.58 | +0.53 | +0.63 | 913 | 766 |
| ANES | Face-to-face respondents | 2008 | +0.61 | +0.57 | +0.65 | 1,607 | 1,053 |
| ANES | Face-to-face respondents | 2012 | +0.63 | +0.59 | +0.67 | 1,454 | 794 |
| ANES | Face-to-face respondents | 2016 | +0.67 | +0.62 | +0.71 | 903 | 598 |
| ANES | Face-to-face respondents | 2024 | +0.72 | +0.68 | +0.77 | 868 | 442 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1974 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.23 | 1,345 | 1,122 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1975 | +0.23 | +0.18 | +0.29 | 1,384 | 1,136 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1976 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.27 | 1,393 | 1,137 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1977 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.27 | 1,440 | 1,160 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1978 | +0.16 | +0.09 | +0.22 | 1,422 | 885 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1980 | +0.14 | +0.08 | +0.21 | 1,418 | 941 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1982 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.30 | 1,723 | 1,032 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1983 | +0.28 | +0.20 | +0.36 | 763 | 482 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1984 | +0.26 | +0.20 | +0.32 | 1,386 | 889 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1985 | +0.28 | +0.22 | +0.34 | 1,444 | 919 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1986 | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.36 | 1,390 | 1,132 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1987 | +0.31 | +0.25 | +0.36 | 1,666 | 1,126 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1988 | +0.30 | +0.24 | +0.35 | 1,411 | 1,139 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1989 | +0.27 | +0.21 | +0.32 | 1,429 | 1,127 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1990 | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.35 | 1,301 | 1,023 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1991 | +0.26 | +0.20 | +0.31 | 1,443 | 1,105 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1993 | +0.34 | +0.28 | +0.38 | 1,528 | 1,196 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1994 | +0.37 | +0.34 | +0.41 | 2,806 | 2,204 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1996 | +0.38 | +0.35 | +0.42 | 2,702 | 2,168 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 1998 | +0.36 | +0.32 | +0.40 | 2,622 | 2,033 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 2000 | +0.34 | +0.30 | +0.38 | 2,593 | 2,038 |
| GSS | All respondents (no mode variable before 2004) | 2002 | +0.37 | +0.31 | +0.42 | 1,299 | 944 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2004 | +0.44 | +0.38 | +0.50 | 1,025 | 761 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2006 | +0.47 | +0.44 | +0.49 | 3,972 | 2,812 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2008 | +0.46 | +0.42 | +0.51 | 1,667 | 1,180 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2010 | +0.49 | +0.45 | +0.54 | 1,706 | 1,100 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2012 | +0.47 | +0.42 | +0.52 | 1,579 | 1,016 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2014 | +0.48 | +0.44 | +0.52 | 2,054 | 1,503 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2016 | +0.51 | +0.47 | +0.54 | 2,487 | 1,651 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2018 | +0.55 | +0.51 | +0.59 | 1,920 | 1,177 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2022 | +0.59 | +0.53 | +0.64 | 1,424 | 566 |
| GSS | In-person respondents | 2024 | +0.56 | +0.50 | +0.61 | 1,029 | 536 |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1974 | +0.15 | +0.07 | +0.24 | 2,485 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1976 | +0.16 | +0.09 | +0.23 | 2,890 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1978 | +0.19 | +0.12 | +0.27 | 3,080 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1980 | +0.24 | +0.16 | +0.33 | 2,422 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1982 | +0.17 | +0.09 | +0.25 | 2,614 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1984 | +0.15 | +0.07 | +0.22 | 2,932 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1986 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.12 | 3,012 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1988 | +0.11 | +0.04 | +0.18 | 2,830 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1990 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.12 | 2,616 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1994 | +0.13 | +0.08 | +0.19 | 4,204 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1996 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.21 | 4,028 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 1998 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.15 | 3,634 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2000 | +0.12 | +0.05 | +0.20 | 3,262 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2002 | +0.15 | +0.07 | +0.22 | 2,522 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2004 | +0.15 | +0.08 | +0.22 | 2,202 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2008 | +0.13 | +0.07 | +0.19 | 3,497 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2012 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.19 | 7,103 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2016 | +0.20 | +0.16 | +0.24 | 5,966 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | All interviews in both surveys | 2024 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.13 | 7,778 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | ANES face-to-face and GSS in-person respondents | 2008 | +0.15 | +0.09 | +0.21 | 3,274 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | ANES face-to-face and GSS in-person respondents | 2012 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.22 | 3,033 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | ANES face-to-face and GSS in-person respondents | 2016 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.22 | 3,390 | n/a |
| ANES minus GSS | ANES face-to-face and GSS in-person respondents | 2024 | +0.16 | +0.09 | +0.24 | 1,897 | n/a |
| ANES minus CES | All interviews in both surveys | 2008 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | 31,546 | n/a |
| ANES minus CES | All interviews in both surveys | 2012 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | 54,260 | n/a |
| ANES minus CES | All interviews in both surveys | 2016 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.13 | 62,086 | n/a |
| ANES minus CES | All interviews in both surveys | 2020 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.07 | 62,436 | n/a |
| ANES minus CES | All interviews in both surveys | 2024 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | 60,551 | n/a |

Views: All interviews (view_id = all); In person only (view_id = inperson); Differences between surveys (view_id = diff).

Note: The in-person view keeps all respondents in the years before the file records interview mode; the methods note gives its rules.

Note: In the all-interviews view, rings mark ANES 2000 and GSS 1983, 2002 and 2004. The label is the share of respondents with a party answer who placed themselves on the ideology scale, fewer than in the years around them, so each ringed point rests on fewer respondents.

Note: A year is drawn only when it has at least 150 respondents who answered both questions and passes a second size condition given in the methods note. A difference needs both surveys to pass.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024 (weight VCF0009z; weight_ftf for the in-person view); GSS, 1974-2024 (weight_use); CES cumulative file, 2006-2024 (weight); all estimates weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/staircase.json

### Table 2. In the GSS, web respondents show a higher correlation than in-person respondents

Weighted party-ideology correlation by interview mode among GSS respondents who answered both questions, 2004 to 2024; bands are 95% intervals for the in-person and web lines

| Interview mode | Year | Estimate | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| All interviews | 2004 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 1,289 | 937 |
| All interviews | 2006 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 4,253 | 2,952 |
| All interviews | 2008 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 1,890 | 1,324 |
| All interviews | 2010 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 1,914 | 1,231 |
| All interviews | 2012 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 1,815 | 1,153 |
| All interviews | 2014 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.53 | 2,368 | 1,734 |
| All interviews | 2016 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.53 | 2,668 | 1,782 |
| All interviews | 2018 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 2,149 | 1,285 |
| All interviews | 2021 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 3,833 | 2,501 |
| All interviews | 2022 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 3,303 | 1,304 |
| All interviews | 2024 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 3,062 | 1,557 |
| In person | 2004 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 1,025 | 761 |
| In person | 2006 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 3,972 | 2,812 |
| In person | 2008 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 1,667 | 1,180 |
| In person | 2010 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 1,706 | 1,100 |
| In person | 2012 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 1,579 | 1,016 |
| In person | 2014 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 2,054 | 1,503 |
| In person | 2016 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 2,487 | 1,651 |
| In person | 2018 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 1,920 | 1,177 |
| In person | 2022 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 1,424 | 566 |
| In person | 2024 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 1,029 | 536 |
| Web | 2021 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 3,370 | 2,198 |
| Web | 2022 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.73 | 1,561 | 650 |
| Web | 2024 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 1,683 | 843 |

Note: Telephone and other GSS interviews are in the all-interviews line and in neither of the other two. The all-interviews line has no band; its intervals are in the data table.

Source: GSS, 2004-2024 (weight_use, interview mode from the raw file); all estimates weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/mode.json

### Table 3. The two parties' average placements moved further apart on all three surveys

Mean liberal-conservative self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers (leaners included, pure independents left out), in standard deviations (SD) of placement, with 95% intervals

| Survey | Year | Estimate | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| ANES | 1972 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1,371 | 595 |
| ANES | 1974 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 977 | 303 |
| ANES | 1976 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.81 | 1,306 | 558 |
| ANES | 1978 | 0.74 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 1,430 | 563 |
| ANES | 1980 | 0.78 | 0.66 | 0.89 | 892 | 377 |
| ANES | 1982 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.88 | 806 | 327 |
| ANES | 1984 | 0.79 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 1,401 | 682 |
| ANES | 1986 | 0.64 | 0.56 | 0.72 | 1,441 | 648 |
| ANES | 1988 | 0.75 | 0.66 | 0.85 | 1,286 | 638 |
| ANES | 1990 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 1,220 | 547 |
| ANES | 1992 | 0.89 | 0.80 | 0.97 | 1,630 | 756 |
| ANES | 1994 | 0.92 | 0.82 | 1.02 | 1,279 | 500 |
| ANES | 1996 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 1.08 | 1,233 | 461 |
| ANES | 1998 | 0.80 | 0.68 | 0.91 | 922 | 345 |
| ANES | 2000 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 1.09 | 603 | 240 |
| ANES | 2002 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 1.18 | 1,171 | 372 |
| ANES | 2004 | 1.13 | 1.01 | 1.25 | 849 | 351 |
| ANES | 2008 | 1.31 | 1.21 | 1.41 | 1,448 | 409 |
| ANES | 2012 | 1.26 | 1.19 | 1.32 | 4,613 | 1,161 |
| ANES | 2016 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 1.61 | 2,949 | 1,021 |
| ANES | 2020 | 1.71 | 1.65 | 1.76 | 6,353 | 1,745 |
| ANES | 2024 | 1.60 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 4,482 | 1,035 |
| GSS | 1974 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 1,208 | 360 |
| GSS | 1975 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.65 | 1,196 | 360 |
| GSS | 1976 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 1,195 | 336 |
| GSS | 1977 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 1,290 | 374 |
| GSS | 1978 | 0.36 | 0.23 | 0.49 | 1,225 | 288 |
| GSS | 1980 | 0.30 | 0.17 | 0.42 | 1,189 | 315 |
| GSS | 1982 | 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.67 | 1,528 | 315 |
| GSS | 1983 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.70 | 678 | 174 |
| GSS | 1984 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 1,244 | 322 |
| GSS | 1985 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 1,316 | 394 |
| GSS | 1986 | 0.57 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 1,221 | 427 |
| GSS | 1987 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0.71 | 1,502 | 397 |
| GSS | 1988 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0.71 | 1,248 | 450 |
| GSS | 1989 | 0.58 | 0.46 | 0.70 | 1,278 | 497 |
| GSS | 1990 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.66 | 1,162 | 455 |
| GSS | 1991 | 0.53 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 1,279 | 510 |
| GSS | 1993 | 0.64 | 0.53 | 0.75 | 1,347 | 492 |
| GSS | 1994 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 0.85 | 2,471 | 869 |
| GSS | 1996 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 2,312 | 870 |
| GSS | 1998 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.86 | 2,211 | 766 |
| GSS | 2000 | 0.75 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 2,113 | 756 |
| GSS | 2002 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.92 | 1,061 | 356 |
| GSS | 2004 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1,092 | 377 |
| GSS | 2006 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 1.10 | 3,365 | 1,044 |
| GSS | 2008 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 1.15 | 1,611 | 471 |
| GSS | 2010 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1,583 | 445 |
| GSS | 2012 | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 1,487 | 360 |
| GSS | 2014 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 1.16 | 1,922 | 590 |
| GSS | 2016 | 1.15 | 1.06 | 1.25 | 2,245 | 652 |
| GSS | 2018 | 1.22 | 1.10 | 1.33 | 1,790 | 435 |
| GSS | 2021 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.61 | 3,046 | 846 |
| GSS | 2022 | 1.52 | 1.41 | 1.63 | 2,522 | 422 |
| GSS | 2024 | 1.50 | 1.39 | 1.60 | 2,304 | 580 |
| CES | 2006 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.34 | 30,222 | 11,342 |
| CES | 2007 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.44 | 8,001 | 1,983 |
| CES | 2008 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 27,354 | 9,277 |
| CES | 2009 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 10,859 | 3,973 |
| CES | 2010 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 46,430 | 8,965 |
| CES | 2011 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 16,020 | 3,710 |
| CES | 2012 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 43,847 | 8,888 |
| CES | 2013 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.24 | 12,250 | 2,683 |
| CES | 2014 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 42,901 | 8,687 |
| CES | 2015 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.30 | 11,025 | 2,725 |
| CES | 2016 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.16 | 50,082 | 11,665 |
| CES | 2017 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 13,724 | 2,859 |
| CES | 2018 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.62 | 47,245 | 10,926 |
| CES | 2019 | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.74 | 14,276 | 4,090 |
| CES | 2020 | 1.59 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 48,071 | 11,264 |
| CES | 2021 | 1.64 | 1.61 | 1.67 | 19,863 | 5,244 |
| CES | 2022 | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.63 | 47,741 | 9,659 |
| CES | 2023 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.55 | 18,941 | 5,124 |
| CES | 2024 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.62 | 49,320 | 7,984 |

Note: Standard deviations are of the seven-point placement in the ANES and GSS and of the five-point placement in the CES, so one unit is not the same number of scale points across surveys.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024 (weight VCF0009z); GSS, 1974-2024 (weight_use); CES cumulative file, 2006-2024 (weight_cumulative); all estimates weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/gap.json

### Table 4. The correlation rose inside every cohort, education and region group in the ANES

Weighted party-ideology correlation by year within each group (solid lines) and among all ANES respondents (dashed line), 1972 to 2024

| Grouping | Line | Year | Estimate | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1972 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 1,071 | 1,071 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1974 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 818 | 616 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1976 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.45 | 920 | 883 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1978 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 913 | 913 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1980 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 554 | 554 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1982 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.47 | 436 | 436 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1984 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 0.47 | 675 | 675 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1986 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 649 | 649 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1988 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 565 | 565 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1990 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 467 | 467 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1992 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.48 | 625 | 622 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1994 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 485 | 407 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1996 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.53 | 432 | 369 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 1998 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 265 | 217 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2000 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.65 | 163 | 136 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2002 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 328 | 228 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2004 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 0.68 | 195 | 163 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2008 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 249 | 173 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2012 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 641 | 377 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2016 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.79 | 297 | 196 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2020 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 467 | 251 |
| cohort | Born before 1943 | 2024 | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.72 | 217 | 105 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1972 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 469 | 469 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1974 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.37 | 312 | 250 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1976 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 570 | 555 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1978 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 738 | 738 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1980 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 448 | 448 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1982 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 454 | 454 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1984 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 858 | 858 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1986 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 972 | 972 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1988 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 852 | 852 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1990 | 0.35 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 848 | 848 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1992 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 1,188 | 1,184 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1994 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 883 | 731 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1996 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 853 | 698 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 1998 | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 636 | 548 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2000 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 451 | 380 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2002 | 0.54 | 0.48 | 0.60 | 804 | 614 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2004 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 543 | 462 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2008 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 928 | 614 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2012 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 3,241 | 1,859 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2016 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 1,790 | 1,306 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2020 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.77 | 3,657 | 2,172 |
| cohort | Born 1943 to 1974 | 2024 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 2,436 | 1,163 |
| cohort | Born 1975 or later | 2004 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.65 | 175 | 144 |
| cohort | Born 1975 or later | 2008 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.67 | 404 | 254 |
| cohort | Born 1975 or later | 2012 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 1,364 | 782 |
| cohort | Born 1975 or later | 2016 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 1,121 | 778 |
| cohort | Born 1975 or later | 2020 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.76 | 2,640 | 1,428 |
| cohort | Born 1975 or later | 2024 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 1,937 | 961 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1972 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1,545 | 1,545 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1974 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 1,140 | 857 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1976 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 1,497 | 1,441 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1978 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 1,658 | 1,658 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1980 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 1,004 | 1,004 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1982 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 891 | 891 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1984 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 1,546 | 1,546 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1986 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 1,622 | 1,622 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1988 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 1,419 | 1,419 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1990 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 1,315 | 1,315 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1992 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1,819 | 1,812 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1994 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 1,398 | 1,144 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1996 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 1,326 | 1,070 |
| cohort | All respondents | 1998 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 1,012 | 858 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2000 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 669 | 546 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2002 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 1,223 | 828 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2004 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 913 | 766 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2008 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 1,607 | 1,053 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2012 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 5,288 | 2,970 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2016 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 3,298 | 2,332 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2020 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 7,041 | 3,929 |
| cohort | All respondents | 2024 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 4,716 | 2,228 |
| education | High school or less | 1972 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 950 | 950 |
| education | High school or less | 1974 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 689 | 517 |
| education | High school or less | 1976 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 822 | 791 |
| education | High school or less | 1978 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 926 | 926 |
| education | High school or less | 1980 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 522 | 522 |
| education | High school or less | 1982 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 401 | 401 |
| education | High school or less | 1984 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 744 | 744 |
| education | High school or less | 1986 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 785 | 785 |
| education | High school or less | 1988 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 654 | 654 |
| education | High school or less | 1990 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 633 | 633 |
| education | High school or less | 1992 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 769 | 765 |
| education | High school or less | 1994 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 552 | 461 |
| education | High school or less | 1996 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.47 | 490 | 394 |
| education | High school or less | 1998 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 363 | 313 |
| education | High school or less | 2000 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.47 | 179 | 146 |
| education | High school or less | 2002 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.51 | 342 | 250 |
| education | High school or less | 2004 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 290 | 242 |
| education | High school or less | 2008 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 634 | 398 |
| education | High school or less | 2012 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 1,708 | 987 |
| education | High school or less | 2016 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 648 | 480 |
| education | High school or less | 2020 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.68 | 1,209 | 722 |
| education | High school or less | 2024 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 878 | 522 |
| education | Some college | 1972 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.46 | 320 | 320 |
| education | Some college | 1974 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.56 | 240 | 181 |
| education | Some college | 1976 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 348 | 336 |
| education | Some college | 1978 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 392 | 392 |
| education | Some college | 1980 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.51 | 255 | 255 |
| education | Some college | 1982 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 256 | 256 |
| education | Some college | 1984 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 455 | 455 |
| education | Some college | 1986 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 419 | 419 |
| education | Some college | 1988 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.49 | 376 | 376 |
| education | Some college | 1990 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.48 | 308 | 308 |
| education | Some college | 1992 | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.56 | 460 | 459 |
| education | Some college | 1994 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 390 | 317 |
| education | Some college | 1996 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 391 | 319 |
| education | Some college | 1998 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 307 | 267 |
| education | Some college | 2000 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 227 | 188 |
| education | Some college | 2002 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 385 | 264 |
| education | Some college | 2004 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.61 | 292 | 260 |
| education | Some college | 2008 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 522 | 351 |
| education | Some college | 2012 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 1,746 | 961 |
| education | Some college | 2016 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 1,132 | 842 |
| education | Some college | 2020 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.76 | 2,320 | 1,349 |
| education | Some college | 2024 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.76 | 1,461 | 667 |
| education | College graduate | 1972 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 0.59 | 274 | 274 |
| education | College graduate | 1974 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 202 | 153 |
| education | College graduate | 1976 | 0.56 | 0.48 | 0.63 | 322 | 310 |
| education | College graduate | 1978 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 338 | 338 |
| education | College graduate | 1980 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.66 | 225 | 225 |
| education | College graduate | 1982 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.70 | 233 | 233 |
| education | College graduate | 1984 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 341 | 341 |
| education | College graduate | 1986 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.66 | 403 | 403 |
| education | College graduate | 1988 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 358 | 358 |
| education | College graduate | 1990 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 349 | 349 |
| education | College graduate | 1992 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 540 | 539 |
| education | College graduate | 1994 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.81 | 422 | 358 |
| education | College graduate | 1996 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 443 | 385 |
| education | College graduate | 1998 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.71 | 337 | 292 |
| education | College graduate | 2000 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 262 | 232 |
| education | College graduate | 2002 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 487 | 390 |
| education | College graduate | 2004 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 331 | 288 |
| education | College graduate | 2008 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 441 | 313 |
| education | College graduate | 2012 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.79 | 1,771 | 1,019 |
| education | College graduate | 2016 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 1,490 | 1,169 |
| education | College graduate | 2020 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 3,417 | 2,240 |
| education | College graduate | 2024 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 2,342 | 1,111 |
| education | All respondents | 1972 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1,545 | 1,545 |
| education | All respondents | 1974 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 1,140 | 857 |
| education | All respondents | 1976 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 1,497 | 1,441 |
| education | All respondents | 1978 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 1,658 | 1,658 |
| education | All respondents | 1980 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 1,004 | 1,004 |
| education | All respondents | 1982 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 891 | 891 |
| education | All respondents | 1984 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 1,546 | 1,546 |
| education | All respondents | 1986 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 1,622 | 1,622 |
| education | All respondents | 1988 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 1,419 | 1,419 |
| education | All respondents | 1990 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 1,315 | 1,315 |
| education | All respondents | 1992 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1,819 | 1,812 |
| education | All respondents | 1994 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 1,398 | 1,144 |
| education | All respondents | 1996 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 1,326 | 1,070 |
| education | All respondents | 1998 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 1,012 | 858 |
| education | All respondents | 2000 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 669 | 546 |
| education | All respondents | 2002 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 1,223 | 828 |
| education | All respondents | 2004 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 913 | 766 |
| education | All respondents | 2008 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 1,607 | 1,053 |
| education | All respondents | 2012 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 5,288 | 2,970 |
| education | All respondents | 2016 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 3,298 | 2,332 |
| education | All respondents | 2020 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 7,041 | 3,929 |
| education | All respondents | 2024 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 4,716 | 2,228 |
| region | South | 1972 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 473 | 473 |
| region | South | 1974 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 363 | 273 |
| region | South | 1976 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 414 | 398 |
| region | South | 1978 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.38 | 574 | 574 |
| region | South | 1980 | 0.36 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 336 | 336 |
| region | South | 1982 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 290 | 290 |
| region | South | 1984 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 447 | 447 |
| region | South | 1986 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 523 | 523 |
| region | South | 1988 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 431 | 431 |
| region | South | 1990 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 376 | 376 |
| region | South | 1992 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 561 | 559 |
| region | South | 1994 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 475 | 387 |
| region | South | 1996 | 0.56 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 458 | 361 |
| region | South | 1998 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 348 | 298 |
| region | South | 2000 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 0.51 | 226 | 181 |
| region | South | 2002 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 424 | 290 |
| region | South | 2004 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.58 | 295 | 246 |
| region | South | 2008 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 746 | 471 |
| region | South | 2012 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 2,012 | 1,102 |
| region | South | 2016 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 1,215 | 887 |
| region | South | 2020 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 2,567 | 1,461 |
| region | South | 2024 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 958 | 482 |
| region | Outside the South | 1972 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 1,072 | 1,072 |
| region | Outside the South | 1974 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 777 | 584 |
| region | Outside the South | 1976 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 1,083 | 1,043 |
| region | Outside the South | 1978 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 1,084 | 1,084 |
| region | Outside the South | 1980 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 0.47 | 668 | 668 |
| region | Outside the South | 1982 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 601 | 601 |
| region | Outside the South | 1984 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 1,099 | 1,099 |
| region | Outside the South | 1986 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 1,099 | 1,099 |
| region | Outside the South | 1988 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 988 | 988 |
| region | Outside the South | 1990 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 939 | 939 |
| region | Outside the South | 1992 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 1,258 | 1,254 |
| region | Outside the South | 1994 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 923 | 758 |
| region | Outside the South | 1996 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.58 | 868 | 709 |
| region | Outside the South | 1998 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 664 | 560 |
| region | Outside the South | 2000 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 441 | 363 |
| region | Outside the South | 2002 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 799 | 539 |
| region | Outside the South | 2004 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 618 | 520 |
| region | Outside the South | 2008 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 861 | 583 |
| region | Outside the South | 2012 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.66 | 3,276 | 1,868 |
| region | Outside the South | 2016 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 2,083 | 1,450 |
| region | Outside the South | 2020 | 0.76 | 0.74 | 0.77 | 4,474 | 2,468 |
| region | Outside the South | 2024 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 1,629 | 801 |
| region | All respondents | 1972 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1,545 | 1,545 |
| region | All respondents | 1974 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 1,140 | 857 |
| region | All respondents | 1976 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 1,497 | 1,441 |
| region | All respondents | 1978 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 1,658 | 1,658 |
| region | All respondents | 1980 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 1,004 | 1,004 |
| region | All respondents | 1982 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 891 | 891 |
| region | All respondents | 1984 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 1,546 | 1,546 |
| region | All respondents | 1986 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 1,622 | 1,622 |
| region | All respondents | 1988 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 1,419 | 1,419 |
| region | All respondents | 1990 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 1,315 | 1,315 |
| region | All respondents | 1992 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1,819 | 1,812 |
| region | All respondents | 1994 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 1,398 | 1,144 |
| region | All respondents | 1996 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 1,326 | 1,070 |
| region | All respondents | 1998 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 1,012 | 858 |
| region | All respondents | 2000 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 669 | 546 |
| region | All respondents | 2002 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 1,223 | 828 |
| region | All respondents | 2004 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 913 | 766 |
| region | All respondents | 2008 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 1,607 | 1,053 |
| region | All respondents | 2012 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 5,288 | 2,970 |
| region | All respondents | 2016 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 3,298 | 2,332 |
| region | All respondents | 2020 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 7,041 | 3,929 |
| region | All respondents | 2024 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 4,716 | 2,228 |

Views: Birth cohort (lens = cohort); Education (lens = education); Region (lens = region).

Note: A year is drawn only when it has at least 150 respondents who answered both questions and passes a second size condition given in the methods note.

Note: The chart draws no interval bands, so that the lines stay readable; every yearly estimate has a 95% interval in the data table.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024 (weight VCF0009z); all estimates weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/groups.json

### Table 5. The correlation rose in every group, and less among college graduates than among other education groups

Weighted party-ideology correlation estimated from all respondents in 1980 to 1988 together and in 2020 to 2024 together, by group, with 95% intervals; rows run by classification and, within each, by the size of the change

| Survey | Group | 1980 to 1988 | Low | High | Respondents | 2020 to 2024 | Low | High | Respondents | Change |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| ANES | Everyone | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 6,482 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 11,757 | +0.34 |
| ANES | Born 1943 to 1974 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 3,584 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 6,093 | +0.35 |
| ANES | Born before 1943 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 2,879 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.72 | 684 | +0.25 |
| ANES | High school or less | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 3,106 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.65 | 2,087 | +0.35 |
| ANES | Some college | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 1,761 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 3,781 | +0.31 |
| ANES | College graduate | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 1,560 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 5,759 | +0.19 |
| ANES | South | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 2,027 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 3,525 | +0.40 |
| ANES | Outside the South | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 4,455 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 6,103 | +0.31 |
| GSS | Everyone | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 11,201 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 2,453 | +0.31 |
| GSS | Born 1943 to 1974 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 5,860 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 1,153 | +0.32 |
| GSS | No bachelor's degree | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 9,220 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 1,751 | +0.29 |
| GSS | Bachelor's degree or more | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 1,961 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 702 | +0.21 |

Views: ANES, all interviews (survey = ANES); GSS, in-person interviews (survey = GSS).

Note: Americans born 1975 or later have no 1980 to 1988 reading, so they are not in the comparison. Their 2020 to 2024 correlation is +0.74.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1980-1988 and 2020-2024 (weight VCF0009z); GSS, 1980-1988 and 2020-2024 in-person interviews (weight_use); all estimates weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/eras.json

### Table 6. Larger shares of Democrats are liberal and of Republicans conservative than in the 1970s

Share of each party's identifiers (leaners included) who place themselves as liberal, moderate or conservative, among identifiers who placed themselves, with 95% intervals; liberal and conservative include slightly liberal and slightly conservative on the seven-point scales of the ANES and GSS

| Survey | Party | Camp | Year | Share | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1972 | 36.1% | 32.8% | 39.5% | 776 | 776 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1974 | 39.3% | 34.8% | 44.0% | 573 | 431 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1976 | 36.6% | 33.1% | 40.2% | 725 | 699 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1978 | 37.1% | 34.0% | 40.4% | 867 | 867 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1980 | 37.9% | 33.8% | 42.1% | 515 | 515 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1982 | 34.2% | 30.1% | 38.6% | 479 | 479 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1984 | 40.5% | 36.9% | 44.1% | 719 | 719 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1986 | 35.7% | 32.4% | 39.1% | 793 | 793 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1988 | 38.1% | 34.4% | 41.9% | 638 | 638 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1990 | 36.7% | 33.1% | 40.4% | 673 | 673 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1992 | 44.1% | 40.8% | 47.4% | 871 | 868 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1994 | 35.5% | 31.4% | 39.8% | 622 | 500 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1996 | 40.9% | 36.8% | 45.1% | 667 | 537 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 1998 | 38.1% | 33.7% | 42.7% | 515 | 437 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2000 | 44.1% | 38.1% | 50.2% | 319 | 255 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2002 | 46.5% | 41.5% | 51.6% | 568 | 372 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2004 | 44.2% | 39.2% | 49.4% | 438 | 363 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2008 | 51.7% | 47.5% | 55.9% | 894 | 547 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2012 | 49.0% | 46.4% | 51.6% | 2,709 | 1,417 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2016 | 61.2% | 58.2% | 64.2% | 1,467 | 1,021 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2020 | 65.1% | 62.9% | 67.3% | 3,277 | 1,745 |
| ANES | Democrats | Liberal | 2024 | 61.7% | 58.8% | 64.5% | 2,310 | 1,087 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1972 | 39.3% | 35.9% | 42.8% | 776 | 776 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1974 | 37.7% | 33.3% | 42.4% | 573 | 431 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1976 | 39.4% | 35.8% | 43.0% | 725 | 699 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1978 | 39.8% | 36.6% | 43.1% | 867 | 867 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1980 | 34.2% | 30.2% | 38.4% | 515 | 515 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1982 | 40.3% | 36.0% | 44.7% | 479 | 479 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1984 | 37.3% | 33.8% | 40.9% | 719 | 719 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1986 | 39.7% | 36.4% | 43.2% | 793 | 793 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1988 | 34.5% | 30.9% | 38.3% | 638 | 638 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1990 | 37.4% | 33.9% | 41.2% | 673 | 673 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1992 | 32.6% | 29.5% | 35.8% | 871 | 868 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1994 | 41.9% | 37.6% | 46.2% | 622 | 500 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1996 | 37.3% | 33.3% | 41.5% | 667 | 537 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 1998 | 40.4% | 35.9% | 45.1% | 515 | 437 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2000 | 33.7% | 28.2% | 39.7% | 319 | 255 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2002 | 32.4% | 27.8% | 37.3% | 568 | 372 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2004 | 39.7% | 34.8% | 44.8% | 438 | 363 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2008 | 31.7% | 28.0% | 35.8% | 894 | 547 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2012 | 36.6% | 34.1% | 39.1% | 2,709 | 1,417 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2016 | 28.5% | 25.8% | 31.3% | 1,467 | 1,021 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2020 | 28.3% | 26.2% | 30.5% | 3,277 | 1,745 |
| ANES | Democrats | Moderate | 2024 | 30.1% | 27.5% | 32.9% | 2,310 | 1,087 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1972 | 24.6% | 21.7% | 27.8% | 776 | 776 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1974 | 23.0% | 19.2% | 27.1% | 573 | 431 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1976 | 24.1% | 21.0% | 27.4% | 725 | 699 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1978 | 23.1% | 20.4% | 26.0% | 867 | 867 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1980 | 28.0% | 24.3% | 32.0% | 515 | 515 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1982 | 25.5% | 21.8% | 29.6% | 479 | 479 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1984 | 22.3% | 19.4% | 25.4% | 719 | 719 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1986 | 24.6% | 21.7% | 27.7% | 793 | 793 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1988 | 27.4% | 24.1% | 31.0% | 638 | 638 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1990 | 25.9% | 22.7% | 29.3% | 673 | 673 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1992 | 23.4% | 20.7% | 26.3% | 871 | 868 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1994 | 22.6% | 19.2% | 26.5% | 622 | 500 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1996 | 21.8% | 18.5% | 25.4% | 667 | 537 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 1998 | 21.5% | 17.9% | 25.6% | 515 | 437 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2000 | 22.3% | 17.6% | 27.7% | 319 | 255 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2002 | 21.1% | 17.3% | 25.6% | 568 | 372 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2004 | 16.1% | 12.7% | 20.2% | 438 | 363 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2008 | 16.6% | 13.7% | 19.9% | 894 | 547 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2012 | 14.5% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 2,709 | 1,417 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2016 | 10.3% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 1,467 | 1,021 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2020 | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 3,277 | 1,745 |
| ANES | Democrats | Conservative | 2024 | 8.2% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 2,310 | 1,087 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1972 | 13.1% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 595 | 595 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1974 | 11.4% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 404 | 303 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1976 | 9.8% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 581 | 558 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1978 | 10.1% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 563 | 563 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1980 | 9.8% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 377 | 377 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1982 | 7.3% | 5.0% | 10.7% | 327 | 327 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1984 | 11.4% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 682 | 682 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1986 | 11.0% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 648 | 648 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1988 | 9.9% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 648 | 648 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1990 | 12.1% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 547 | 547 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1992 | 9.5% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 759 | 756 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1994 | 5.1% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 657 | 547 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1996 | 6.1% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 566 | 461 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 1998 | 8.3% | 5.9% | 11.7% | 407 | 345 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2000 | 8.7% | 5.8% | 13.0% | 284 | 240 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2002 | 8.4% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 603 | 427 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2004 | 6.6% | 4.4% | 9.7% | 411 | 351 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2008 | 5.2% | 3.5% | 7.8% | 554 | 409 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2012 | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 1,904 | 1,161 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2016 | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 1,482 | 1,063 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2020 | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3,076 | 1,816 |
| ANES | Republicans | Liberal | 2024 | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 2,172 | 1,035 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1972 | 33.4% | 29.8% | 37.3% | 595 | 595 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1974 | 32.4% | 27.4% | 37.9% | 404 | 303 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1976 | 30.0% | 26.4% | 34.0% | 581 | 558 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1978 | 28.4% | 24.8% | 32.3% | 563 | 563 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1980 | 23.1% | 19.1% | 27.6% | 377 | 377 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1982 | 25.7% | 21.3% | 30.7% | 327 | 327 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1984 | 25.2% | 22.1% | 28.6% | 682 | 682 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1986 | 30.2% | 26.8% | 33.9% | 648 | 648 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1988 | 24.8% | 21.7% | 28.3% | 648 | 648 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1990 | 33.1% | 29.3% | 37.1% | 547 | 547 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1992 | 26.9% | 23.9% | 30.2% | 759 | 756 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1994 | 24.9% | 21.4% | 28.6% | 657 | 547 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1996 | 22.6% | 19.0% | 26.6% | 566 | 461 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 1998 | 26.5% | 22.2% | 31.4% | 407 | 345 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2000 | 25.5% | 20.4% | 31.4% | 284 | 240 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2002 | 22.3% | 18.6% | 26.5% | 603 | 427 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2004 | 22.8% | 18.7% | 27.5% | 411 | 351 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2008 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 22.7% | 554 | 409 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2012 | 21.7% | 19.4% | 24.2% | 1,904 | 1,161 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2016 | 19.5% | 17.2% | 22.0% | 1,482 | 1,063 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2020 | 18.0% | 16.3% | 19.8% | 3,076 | 1,816 |
| ANES | Republicans | Moderate | 2024 | 18.3% | 16.0% | 20.7% | 2,172 | 1,035 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1972 | 53.4% | 49.4% | 57.4% | 595 | 595 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1974 | 56.2% | 50.6% | 61.7% | 404 | 303 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1976 | 60.2% | 56.0% | 64.1% | 581 | 558 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1978 | 61.5% | 57.4% | 65.4% | 563 | 563 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1980 | 67.1% | 62.2% | 71.7% | 377 | 377 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1982 | 67.0% | 61.7% | 71.8% | 327 | 327 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1984 | 63.3% | 59.7% | 66.9% | 682 | 682 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1986 | 58.8% | 55.0% | 62.5% | 648 | 648 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1988 | 65.3% | 61.5% | 68.8% | 648 | 648 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1990 | 54.8% | 50.7% | 59.0% | 547 | 547 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1992 | 63.6% | 60.1% | 67.0% | 759 | 756 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1994 | 70.0% | 66.1% | 73.7% | 657 | 547 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1996 | 71.3% | 67.0% | 75.2% | 566 | 461 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 1998 | 65.1% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 407 | 345 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2000 | 65.7% | 59.5% | 71.5% | 284 | 240 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2002 | 69.3% | 64.8% | 73.5% | 603 | 427 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2004 | 70.6% | 65.7% | 75.2% | 411 | 351 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2008 | 76.1% | 71.7% | 80.0% | 554 | 409 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2012 | 73.7% | 71.1% | 76.2% | 1,904 | 1,161 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2016 | 76.5% | 73.8% | 78.9% | 1,482 | 1,063 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2020 | 78.3% | 76.4% | 80.1% | 3,076 | 1,816 |
| ANES | Republicans | Conservative | 2024 | 77.4% | 74.7% | 79.8% | 2,172 | 1,035 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1974 | 36.0% | 32.4% | 39.7% | 789 | 653 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1975 | 38.2% | 34.5% | 42.1% | 766 | 623 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1976 | 33.4% | 29.8% | 37.1% | 791 | 641 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1977 | 35.9% | 32.3% | 39.6% | 841 | 664 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1978 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 38.2% | 756 | 479 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1980 | 28.2% | 24.4% | 32.3% | 741 | 486 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1982 | 34.1% | 30.4% | 38.0% | 1,041 | 594 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1983 | 30.0% | 24.8% | 35.7% | 420 | 269 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1984 | 31.8% | 27.7% | 36.1% | 724 | 466 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1985 | 34.8% | 30.6% | 39.4% | 719 | 448 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1986 | 31.4% | 27.7% | 35.3% | 703 | 570 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1987 | 38.4% | 34.6% | 42.3% | 961 | 615 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1988 | 39.4% | 35.4% | 43.5% | 697 | 559 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1989 | 41.1% | 36.9% | 45.5% | 666 | 504 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1990 | 38.1% | 33.8% | 42.6% | 590 | 461 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1991 | 39.1% | 34.9% | 43.4% | 655 | 510 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1993 | 40.8% | 36.8% | 44.9% | 725 | 567 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1994 | 39.2% | 36.4% | 42.2% | 1,370 | 1,074 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1996 | 36.8% | 33.8% | 39.8% | 1,272 | 997 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 1998 | 38.8% | 35.8% | 41.8% | 1,274 | 986 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2000 | 36.0% | 32.9% | 39.2% | 1,189 | 914 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2002 | 37.4% | 32.9% | 42.1% | 596 | 425 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2004 | 39.8% | 35.2% | 44.6% | 588 | 411 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2006 | 42.7% | 40.0% | 45.4% | 1,918 | 1,312 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2008 | 41.7% | 38.0% | 45.5% | 954 | 653 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2010 | 46.9% | 42.9% | 51.0% | 932 | 569 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2012 | 43.2% | 39.3% | 47.2% | 902 | 605 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2014 | 41.5% | 38.2% | 44.9% | 1,143 | 818 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2016 | 48.7% | 45.4% | 52.1% | 1,334 | 865 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2018 | 52.2% | 48.3% | 56.0% | 1,013 | 636 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2021 | 58.3% | 55.4% | 61.1% | 1,818 | 1,138 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2022 | 59.8% | 55.8% | 63.7% | 1,416 | 592 |
| GSS | Democrats | Liberal | 2024 | 58.9% | 54.9% | 62.7% | 1,215 | 603 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1974 | 39.5% | 35.8% | 43.3% | 789 | 653 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1975 | 40.6% | 36.8% | 44.5% | 766 | 623 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1976 | 42.4% | 38.7% | 46.3% | 791 | 641 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1977 | 40.8% | 37.1% | 44.6% | 841 | 664 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1978 | 39.4% | 35.1% | 43.9% | 756 | 479 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1980 | 45.0% | 40.6% | 49.4% | 741 | 486 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1982 | 40.9% | 37.0% | 44.9% | 1,041 | 594 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1983 | 45.0% | 39.2% | 51.0% | 420 | 269 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1984 | 40.9% | 36.5% | 45.4% | 724 | 466 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1985 | 40.3% | 35.9% | 44.9% | 719 | 448 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1986 | 43.3% | 39.3% | 47.4% | 703 | 570 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1987 | 40.3% | 36.5% | 44.2% | 961 | 615 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1988 | 36.7% | 32.8% | 40.8% | 697 | 559 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1989 | 38.4% | 34.2% | 42.7% | 666 | 504 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1990 | 37.1% | 32.8% | 41.6% | 590 | 461 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1991 | 38.5% | 34.4% | 42.8% | 655 | 510 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1993 | 35.0% | 31.2% | 39.1% | 725 | 567 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1994 | 38.0% | 35.1% | 40.9% | 1,370 | 1,074 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1996 | 38.7% | 35.8% | 41.8% | 1,272 | 997 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 1998 | 38.9% | 35.9% | 41.9% | 1,274 | 986 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2000 | 43.6% | 40.4% | 46.8% | 1,189 | 914 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2002 | 43.2% | 38.5% | 47.9% | 596 | 425 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2004 | 39.0% | 34.4% | 43.8% | 588 | 411 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2006 | 39.6% | 37.0% | 42.3% | 1,918 | 1,312 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2008 | 40.9% | 37.2% | 44.7% | 954 | 653 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2010 | 37.2% | 33.3% | 41.3% | 932 | 569 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2012 | 39.4% | 35.6% | 43.3% | 902 | 605 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2014 | 42.0% | 38.7% | 45.4% | 1,143 | 818 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2016 | 35.2% | 32.1% | 38.5% | 1,334 | 865 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2018 | 35.5% | 31.9% | 39.3% | 1,013 | 636 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2021 | 32.4% | 29.7% | 35.2% | 1,818 | 1,138 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2022 | 30.1% | 26.5% | 33.9% | 1,416 | 592 |
| GSS | Democrats | Moderate | 2024 | 29.7% | 26.2% | 33.5% | 1,215 | 603 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1974 | 24.6% | 21.4% | 28.0% | 789 | 653 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1975 | 21.2% | 18.2% | 24.6% | 766 | 623 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1976 | 24.2% | 21.1% | 27.7% | 791 | 641 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1977 | 23.3% | 20.3% | 26.7% | 841 | 664 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1978 | 26.8% | 23.0% | 30.9% | 756 | 479 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1980 | 26.8% | 23.1% | 30.9% | 741 | 486 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1982 | 25.0% | 21.7% | 28.7% | 1,041 | 594 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1983 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 30.5% | 420 | 269 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1984 | 27.4% | 23.5% | 31.6% | 724 | 466 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1985 | 24.8% | 21.0% | 29.0% | 719 | 448 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1986 | 25.3% | 21.9% | 29.0% | 703 | 570 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1987 | 21.3% | 18.2% | 24.7% | 961 | 615 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1988 | 23.9% | 20.6% | 27.6% | 697 | 559 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1989 | 20.5% | 17.2% | 24.2% | 666 | 504 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1990 | 24.8% | 21.1% | 29.0% | 590 | 461 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1991 | 22.4% | 19.0% | 26.3% | 655 | 510 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1993 | 24.2% | 20.9% | 27.9% | 725 | 567 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1994 | 22.8% | 20.4% | 25.4% | 1,370 | 1,074 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1996 | 24.5% | 21.9% | 27.3% | 1,272 | 997 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 1998 | 22.4% | 19.9% | 25.1% | 1,274 | 986 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2000 | 20.4% | 18.0% | 23.2% | 1,189 | 914 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2002 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 23.5% | 596 | 425 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2004 | 21.2% | 17.5% | 25.4% | 588 | 411 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2006 | 17.7% | 15.7% | 19.9% | 1,918 | 1,312 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2008 | 17.4% | 14.7% | 20.5% | 954 | 653 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2010 | 15.9% | 13.1% | 19.1% | 932 | 569 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2012 | 17.4% | 14.6% | 20.6% | 902 | 605 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2014 | 16.5% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 1,143 | 818 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2016 | 16.0% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 1,334 | 865 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2018 | 12.4% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 1,013 | 636 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2021 | 9.3% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 1,818 | 1,138 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2022 | 10.1% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 1,416 | 592 |
| GSS | Democrats | Conservative | 2024 | 11.4% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 1,215 | 603 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1974 | 19.0% | 15.3% | 23.4% | 419 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1975 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 22.8% | 430 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1976 | 18.7% | 14.9% | 23.3% | 404 | 336 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1977 | 21.2% | 17.3% | 25.6% | 449 | 374 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1978 | 20.2% | 16.0% | 25.2% | 469 | 288 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1980 | 20.7% | 16.6% | 25.5% | 448 | 315 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1982 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 18.4% | 487 | 315 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1983 | 14.5% | 10.1% | 20.5% | 258 | 174 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1984 | 12.5% | 9.3% | 16.6% | 520 | 322 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1985 | 14.6% | 11.5% | 18.5% | 597 | 394 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1986 | 14.5% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 518 | 427 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1987 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 21.1% | 541 | 397 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1988 | 16.0% | 12.9% | 19.6% | 551 | 450 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1989 | 16.8% | 13.8% | 20.4% | 612 | 497 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1990 | 19.0% | 15.6% | 22.8% | 572 | 455 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1991 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 21.6% | 624 | 513 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1993 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 622 | 492 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1994 | 14.8% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 1,101 | 869 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1996 | 11.3% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 1,040 | 870 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 1998 | 13.0% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 937 | 766 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2000 | 13.0% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 924 | 756 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2002 | 10.6% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 465 | 356 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2004 | 10.3% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 504 | 377 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2006 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 1,447 | 1,044 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2008 | 6.0% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 657 | 471 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2010 | 10.3% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 651 | 445 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2012 | 8.2% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 585 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2014 | 7.4% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 779 | 590 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2016 | 6.8% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 911 | 652 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2018 | 8.7% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 777 | 435 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2021 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 1,228 | 846 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2022 | 4.2% | 2.7% | 6.6% | 1,106 | 422 |
| GSS | Republicans | Liberal | 2024 | 5.7% | 4.1% | 7.9% | 1,089 | 580 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1974 | 39.1% | 34.2% | 44.2% | 419 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1975 | 37.0% | 32.2% | 42.1% | 430 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1976 | 32.9% | 28.1% | 38.1% | 404 | 336 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1977 | 33.0% | 28.5% | 37.9% | 449 | 374 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1978 | 32.4% | 27.2% | 38.0% | 469 | 288 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1980 | 32.2% | 27.3% | 37.6% | 448 | 315 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1982 | 36.8% | 31.6% | 42.2% | 487 | 315 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1983 | 31.2% | 24.8% | 38.4% | 258 | 174 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1984 | 35.9% | 30.8% | 41.3% | 520 | 322 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1985 | 37.4% | 32.8% | 42.3% | 597 | 394 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1986 | 33.3% | 29.0% | 37.9% | 518 | 427 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1987 | 34.6% | 30.1% | 39.4% | 541 | 397 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1988 | 32.7% | 28.6% | 37.2% | 551 | 450 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1989 | 36.3% | 32.1% | 40.6% | 612 | 497 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1990 | 31.0% | 26.9% | 35.4% | 572 | 455 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1991 | 37.0% | 32.9% | 41.3% | 624 | 513 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1993 | 34.1% | 30.1% | 38.4% | 622 | 492 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1994 | 28.6% | 25.7% | 31.7% | 1,101 | 869 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1996 | 32.6% | 29.6% | 35.8% | 1,040 | 870 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 1998 | 29.7% | 26.6% | 33.1% | 937 | 766 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2000 | 30.4% | 27.2% | 33.8% | 924 | 756 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2002 | 29.3% | 24.8% | 34.3% | 465 | 356 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2004 | 31.6% | 27.1% | 36.4% | 504 | 377 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2006 | 28.7% | 26.0% | 31.5% | 1,447 | 1,044 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2008 | 29.1% | 25.2% | 33.3% | 657 | 471 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2010 | 27.2% | 23.3% | 31.5% | 651 | 445 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2012 | 26.2% | 21.9% | 31.0% | 585 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2014 | 28.6% | 25.1% | 32.4% | 779 | 590 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2016 | 29.0% | 25.7% | 32.6% | 911 | 652 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2018 | 31.3% | 27.1% | 35.8% | 777 | 435 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2021 | 24.7% | 21.9% | 27.7% | 1,228 | 846 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2022 | 25.4% | 21.4% | 29.7% | 1,106 | 422 |
| GSS | Republicans | Moderate | 2024 | 23.4% | 20.1% | 27.0% | 1,089 | 580 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1974 | 41.9% | 36.9% | 47.0% | 419 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1975 | 44.5% | 39.5% | 49.7% | 430 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1976 | 48.4% | 43.1% | 53.7% | 404 | 336 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1977 | 45.8% | 40.8% | 50.9% | 449 | 374 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1978 | 47.4% | 41.7% | 53.2% | 469 | 288 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1980 | 47.1% | 41.6% | 52.6% | 448 | 315 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1982 | 49.1% | 43.7% | 54.6% | 487 | 315 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1983 | 54.3% | 46.9% | 61.5% | 258 | 174 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1984 | 51.6% | 46.1% | 57.0% | 520 | 322 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1985 | 47.9% | 43.0% | 52.9% | 597 | 394 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1986 | 52.3% | 47.5% | 57.0% | 518 | 427 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1987 | 48.3% | 43.4% | 53.2% | 541 | 397 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1988 | 51.3% | 46.7% | 55.9% | 551 | 450 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1989 | 46.9% | 42.6% | 51.3% | 612 | 497 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1990 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 54.6% | 572 | 455 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1991 | 44.9% | 40.7% | 49.3% | 624 | 513 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1993 | 52.5% | 48.1% | 56.9% | 622 | 492 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1994 | 56.6% | 53.3% | 59.9% | 1,101 | 869 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1996 | 56.1% | 52.8% | 59.4% | 1,040 | 870 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 1998 | 57.3% | 53.7% | 60.7% | 937 | 766 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2000 | 56.6% | 53.0% | 60.1% | 924 | 756 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2002 | 60.0% | 54.9% | 65.0% | 465 | 356 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2004 | 58.2% | 53.1% | 63.0% | 504 | 377 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2006 | 62.3% | 59.3% | 65.2% | 1,447 | 1,044 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2008 | 64.9% | 60.5% | 69.1% | 657 | 471 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2010 | 62.6% | 58.0% | 66.9% | 651 | 445 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2012 | 65.6% | 60.6% | 70.3% | 585 | 360 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2014 | 64.0% | 60.0% | 67.8% | 779 | 590 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2016 | 64.2% | 60.5% | 67.8% | 911 | 652 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2018 | 60.1% | 55.4% | 64.5% | 777 | 435 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2021 | 71.6% | 68.5% | 74.5% | 1,228 | 846 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2022 | 70.4% | 65.9% | 74.6% | 1,106 | 422 |
| GSS | Republicans | Conservative | 2024 | 70.9% | 67.0% | 74.4% | 1,089 | 580 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2006 | 47.1% | 46.2% | 48.0% | 15,560 | 12,187 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2007 | 51.3% | 49.2% | 53.4% | 4,281 | 2,226 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2008 | 50.9% | 49.9% | 52.0% | 13,793 | 9,277 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2009 | 49.7% | 48.2% | 51.3% | 5,581 | 3,973 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2010 | 48.9% | 47.8% | 49.9% | 23,352 | 9,329 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2011 | 36.1% | 34.7% | 37.6% | 8,870 | 4,108 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2012 | 46.7% | 45.7% | 47.7% | 23,773 | 9,916 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2013 | 47.9% | 46.3% | 49.6% | 7,103 | 3,435 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2014 | 44.8% | 43.9% | 45.8% | 24,367 | 10,280 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2015 | 47.8% | 46.1% | 49.5% | 6,299 | 3,272 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2016 | 45.1% | 44.3% | 45.9% | 29,784 | 14,600 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2017 | 49.3% | 47.7% | 50.9% | 8,105 | 3,795 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2018 | 59.6% | 58.7% | 60.5% | 26,268 | 12,043 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2019 | 62.4% | 60.9% | 63.8% | 7,963 | 4,354 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2020 | 58.6% | 57.7% | 59.4% | 28,303 | 13,342 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2021 | 60.4% | 59.2% | 61.6% | 11,987 | 6,476 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2022 | 60.2% | 59.3% | 61.0% | 28,102 | 12,736 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2023 | 56.6% | 55.3% | 57.9% | 10,391 | 5,748 |
| CES | Democrats | Liberal | 2024 | 59.9% | 58.9% | 60.9% | 28,559 | 8,993 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2006 | 46.9% | 46.0% | 47.8% | 15,560 | 12,187 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2007 | 41.5% | 39.4% | 43.5% | 4,281 | 2,226 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2008 | 41.4% | 40.4% | 42.4% | 13,793 | 9,277 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2009 | 42.2% | 40.7% | 43.8% | 5,581 | 3,973 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2010 | 42.0% | 41.0% | 43.0% | 23,352 | 9,329 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2011 | 51.7% | 50.2% | 53.2% | 8,870 | 4,108 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2012 | 42.7% | 41.8% | 43.7% | 23,773 | 9,916 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2013 | 40.0% | 38.4% | 41.7% | 7,103 | 3,435 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2014 | 42.9% | 41.9% | 43.8% | 24,367 | 10,280 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2015 | 41.0% | 39.3% | 42.7% | 6,299 | 3,272 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2016 | 41.6% | 40.8% | 42.4% | 29,784 | 14,600 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2017 | 40.0% | 38.5% | 41.6% | 8,105 | 3,795 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2018 | 31.8% | 31.0% | 32.6% | 26,268 | 12,043 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2019 | 30.6% | 29.3% | 32.0% | 7,963 | 4,354 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2020 | 34.2% | 33.4% | 35.0% | 28,303 | 13,342 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2021 | 33.0% | 31.9% | 34.2% | 11,987 | 6,476 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2022 | 33.7% | 32.9% | 34.6% | 28,102 | 12,736 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2023 | 36.0% | 34.7% | 37.2% | 10,391 | 5,748 |
| CES | Democrats | Moderate | 2024 | 35.1% | 34.2% | 36.1% | 28,559 | 8,993 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2006 | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 15,560 | 12,187 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2007 | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 4,281 | 2,226 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2008 | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 13,793 | 9,277 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2009 | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5,581 | 3,973 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2010 | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 23,352 | 9,329 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2011 | 12.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 8,870 | 4,108 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2012 | 10.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 23,773 | 9,916 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2013 | 12.0% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 7,103 | 3,435 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2014 | 12.3% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 24,367 | 10,280 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2015 | 11.2% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 6,299 | 3,272 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2016 | 13.2% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 29,784 | 14,600 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2017 | 10.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 8,105 | 3,795 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2018 | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 26,268 | 12,043 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2019 | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7,963 | 4,354 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2020 | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 28,303 | 13,342 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2021 | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 11,987 | 6,476 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2022 | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 28,102 | 12,736 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2023 | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10,391 | 5,748 |
| CES | Democrats | Conservative | 2024 | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 28,559 | 8,993 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2006 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 14,662 | 11,342 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2007 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3,720 | 1,983 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2008 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 13,561 | 10,315 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2009 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5,278 | 4,289 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2010 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 23,078 | 8,965 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2011 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 7,150 | 3,710 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2012 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 20,074 | 8,888 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2013 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5,147 | 2,683 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2014 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 18,534 | 8,687 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2015 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4,726 | 2,725 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2016 | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 20,298 | 11,665 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2017 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 5,619 | 2,859 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2018 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 20,977 | 10,926 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2019 | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6,313 | 4,090 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2020 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 19,768 | 11,264 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2021 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 7,876 | 5,244 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2022 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 19,639 | 9,659 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2023 | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 8,550 | 5,124 |
| CES | Republicans | Liberal | 2024 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 20,761 | 7,984 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2006 | 24.8% | 24.0% | 25.6% | 14,662 | 11,342 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2007 | 22.5% | 20.7% | 24.4% | 3,720 | 1,983 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2008 | 21.2% | 20.5% | 22.0% | 13,561 | 10,315 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2009 | 21.2% | 20.0% | 22.5% | 5,278 | 4,289 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2010 | 19.9% | 19.1% | 20.8% | 23,078 | 8,965 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2011 | 22.6% | 21.3% | 24.0% | 7,150 | 3,710 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2012 | 20.3% | 19.5% | 21.2% | 20,074 | 8,888 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2013 | 22.1% | 20.6% | 23.7% | 5,147 | 2,683 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2014 | 22.8% | 22.0% | 23.7% | 18,534 | 8,687 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2015 | 23.9% | 22.3% | 25.5% | 4,726 | 2,725 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2016 | 24.8% | 24.0% | 25.6% | 20,298 | 11,665 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2017 | 22.0% | 20.5% | 23.6% | 5,619 | 2,859 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2018 | 21.0% | 20.2% | 21.8% | 20,977 | 10,926 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2019 | 20.2% | 19.0% | 21.5% | 6,313 | 4,090 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2020 | 22.3% | 21.6% | 23.1% | 19,768 | 11,264 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2021 | 22.1% | 21.0% | 23.3% | 7,876 | 5,244 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2022 | 23.3% | 22.5% | 24.2% | 19,639 | 9,659 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2023 | 25.4% | 24.2% | 26.6% | 8,550 | 5,124 |
| CES | Republicans | Moderate | 2024 | 24.5% | 23.5% | 25.4% | 20,761 | 7,984 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2006 | 72.8% | 72.0% | 73.7% | 14,662 | 11,342 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2007 | 75.4% | 73.5% | 77.3% | 3,720 | 1,983 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2008 | 76.0% | 75.1% | 76.8% | 13,561 | 10,315 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2009 | 76.6% | 75.3% | 77.8% | 5,278 | 4,289 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2010 | 77.7% | 76.8% | 78.6% | 23,078 | 8,965 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2011 | 75.4% | 74.0% | 76.8% | 7,150 | 3,710 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2012 | 77.5% | 76.6% | 78.3% | 20,074 | 8,888 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2013 | 75.4% | 73.7% | 77.0% | 5,147 | 2,683 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2014 | 74.9% | 74.0% | 75.8% | 18,534 | 8,687 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2015 | 73.8% | 72.1% | 75.4% | 4,726 | 2,725 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2016 | 72.7% | 71.9% | 73.5% | 20,298 | 11,665 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2017 | 76.1% | 74.5% | 77.6% | 5,619 | 2,859 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2018 | 76.1% | 75.3% | 76.9% | 20,977 | 10,926 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2019 | 76.0% | 74.6% | 77.3% | 6,313 | 4,090 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2020 | 74.4% | 73.6% | 75.2% | 19,768 | 11,264 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2021 | 75.1% | 73.9% | 76.3% | 7,876 | 5,244 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2022 | 74.0% | 73.1% | 74.9% | 19,639 | 9,659 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2023 | 71.2% | 69.9% | 72.4% | 8,550 | 5,124 |
| CES | Republicans | Conservative | 2024 | 73.2% | 72.2% | 74.2% | 20,761 | 7,984 |

Views: ANES (survey = ANES); GSS (survey = GSS); CES (survey = CES).

Note: Respondents who did not place themselves are left out of every share, and the share who placed themselves is reported in the text.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024 (weight VCF0009z); GSS, 1974-2024 (weight_use); CES cumulative file, 2006-2024 (weight); all estimates weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/camps.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (124), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| anes_chg | +0.34 | difference in correlation coefficients | change in the pooled ANES correlation between the two windows; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980-1988 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.31 to 0.36 | 18,239 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_d_1972_1982 | +0.09 | difference in correlation coefficients | 1982 minus 1972 ANES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1972 and 1982 | 95% CI 0.02 to 0.16 | 2,436 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_d_1982_1992 | +0.02 | difference in correlation coefficients | 1992 minus 1982 ANES correlation (1982 is the highest estimate before 1992); standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1982 and 1992 | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.09 | 2,710 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_d_2008_2016 | +0.08 | difference in correlation coefficients | 2016 minus 2008 ANES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2008 and 2016 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.13 | 4,905 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_d_2020_2024 | −0.01 | difference in correlation coefficients | 2024 minus 2020 ANES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2020 and 2024 | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.01 | 11,757 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_dem_con_1972 | 25% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | ANES Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 1972 | 95% CI 22% to 28% | 776 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_dem_con_2024 | 8% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | ANES Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 7% to 10% | 2,310 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_dem_lib_1972 | 36% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | ANES Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 1972 | 95% CI 33% to 40% | 776 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_dem_lib_2024 | 62% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | ANES Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 59% to 65% | 2,310 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_ftf_2024 | +0.72 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024, face-to-face interviews | 95% CI 0.68 to 0.77 | 868 | weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_gap_1972 | 0.58 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | ANES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 1972 | 95% CI 0.50 to 0.67 | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_gap_1972_year | 0.68 | standard deviations of self-placement in the same year | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the same-year standard deviation of placements | ANES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 1972 | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.78 | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_gap_2024 | 1.60 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | ANES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2024 | 95% CI 1.53 to 1.67 | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_gap_2024_year | 1.43 | standard deviations of self-placement in the same year | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the same-year standard deviation of placements | ANES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2024 | 95% CI 1.37 to 1.50 | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_gap_pts_1972 | 0.9 | points on the seven-point liberal-conservative scale | weighted mean self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers | ANES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 1972 | 95% CI 0.7 to 1.0 | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_gap_pts_2024 | 2.4 | points on the seven-point liberal-conservative scale | weighted mean self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers | ANES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2024 | 95% CI 2.3 to 2.5 | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_placed_1972 | 57% | percent of respondents with a party identification | weighted share who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale, Wilson interval | ANES respondents with a party identification (other party and not sure excluded) | 1972 | 95% CI 55% to 59% | 2,695 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_placed_2000 | 34% | percent of respondents with a party identification | weighted share who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale, Wilson interval | ANES respondents with a party identification (other party and not sure excluded) | 2000 | 95% CI 32% to 37% | 1,792 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_placed_2024 | 84% | percent of respondents with a party identification | weighted share who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale, Wilson interval | ANES respondents with a party identification (other party and not sure excluded) | 2024 | 95% CI 82% to 85% | 5,483 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_r_1972 | +0.32 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1972 | 95% CI 0.27 to 0.36 | 1,545 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_r_1982 | +0.41 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1982 | 95% CI 0.36 to 0.47 | 891 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_r_2020 | +0.74 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2020 | 95% CI 0.72 to 0.75 | 7,041 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_r_2020s | +0.73 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.72 to 0.74 | 11,757 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_r_2024 | +0.72 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74 | 4,716 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_r_reagan | +0.39 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.37 to 0.41 | 6,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_rep_con_1972 | 53% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | ANES Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 1972 | 95% CI 49% to 57% | 595 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_rep_con_2024 | 77% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | ANES Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 75% to 80% | 2,172 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_rep_lib_1972 | 13% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | ANES Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 1972 | 95% CI 11% to 16% | 595 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_rep_lib_2024 | 4% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | ANES Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 3% to 6% | 2,172 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_sd | 1.48 | points on the seven-point liberal-conservative scale | weighted standard deviation of liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents who placed themselves, all survey years 1972-2024 pooled | 1972-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_sd_1972 | 1.28 | points on the seven-point liberal-conservative scale | weighted standard deviation of liberal-conservative self-placement within the year | ANES respondents who placed themselves that year | 1972 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_sd_2024 | 1.66 | points on the seven-point liberal-conservative scale | weighted standard deviation of liberal-conservative self-placement within the year | ANES respondents who placed themselves that year | 2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ces_d_2006_2024 | +0.06 | difference in correlation coefficients | 2024 minus 2006 CES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2006 and 2024 | 95% CI 0.05 to 0.07 | 89,590 | weight | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_d_2008_2016 | −0.09 | difference in correlation coefficients | 2016 minus 2008 CES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2008 and 2016 | 95% CI −0.10 to −0.08 | 88,727 | weight | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_dem_lib_2006 | 47% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | CES Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2006 | 95% CI 46% to 48% | 15,560 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_dem_lib_2024 | 60% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | CES Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 59% to 61% | 28,559 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_gap_2006 | 1.32 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | CES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2006 | 95% CI 1.30 to 1.34 | 30,222 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_gap_2008 | 1.47 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | CES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2008 | 95% CI 1.44 to 1.49 | 27,354 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_gap_2016 | 1.14 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | CES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2016 | 95% CI 1.12 to 1.16 | 50,082 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_gap_2024 | 1.60 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | CES identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2024 | 95% CI 1.58 to 1.62 | 49,320 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_r_2006 | +0.66 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2006 | 95% CI 0.65 to 0.67 | 33,755 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_r_2008 | +0.68 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2008 | 95% CI 0.67 to 0.68 | 29,939 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_r_2016 | +0.59 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2016 | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.60 | 58,788 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_r_2020s | +0.69 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2020-2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.69 to 0.69 | 211,673 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_r_2024 | +0.72 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2024 | 95% CI 0.71 to 0.73 | 55,835 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_rep_con_2006 | 73% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | CES Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2006 | 95% CI 72% to 74% | 14,662 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_rep_con_2024 | 73% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | CES Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 72% to 74% | 20,761 | weight (single wave); weight_cumulative (pooled years) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| college_r_2020s | +0.80 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'College graduate' with both answers | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.78 to 0.81 | 5,759 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| college_r_reagan | +0.61 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'College graduate' with both answers | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.64 | 1,560 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| college_vs_hs_chg | −0.17 | difference in changes of correlation coefficients | change in the pooled ANES correlation among college graduates minus the change among respondents with high school or less; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES college graduates and respondents with high school or less (disjoint education groups) | 1980-1988 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −0.23 to −0.11 | 12,512 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| college_vs_some_chg | −0.12 | difference in changes of correlation coefficients | change in the pooled ANES correlation among college graduates minus the change among respondents with some college; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES college graduates and respondents with some college (disjoint education groups) | 1980-1988 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −0.18 to −0.07 | 12,861 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| d_anes_ces_2020s | +0.04 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus CES pooled correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.03 to 0.05 | 223,430 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| d_anes_gss_2020s | +0.10 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus GSS pooled correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.08 to 0.12 | 21,955 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| d_anes_gss_reagan | +0.13 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus GSS pooled correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980-1988 | 95% CI 0.10 to 0.16 | 17,683 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| d_ces_gss_2020s | +0.05 | difference in correlation coefficients | CES minus GSS pooled correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | CES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, not sure excluded) and an ideology answer (not sure excluded) | 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.07 | 221,871 | weight_cumulative; weight_use | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| design_ratio_max | 1.68 | ratio of standard errors | largest ratio of the jackknife standard error over primary sampling units within strata to the model-based standard error of the correlation | GSS respondents with both answers in the 7 year-and-mode cells behind the interview-mode comparison | 2018, 2022 and 2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| design_ratio_min | 1.13 | ratio of standard errors | smallest ratio of the jackknife standard error over primary sampling units within strata to the model-based standard error of the correlation | GSS respondents with both answers in the 7 year-and-mode cells behind the interview-mode comparison | 2018, 2022 and 2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gap_off_2024 | +0.10 | difference in standard deviations of self-placement (each survey in its own survey-wide standard deviation) | ANES minus GSS distance between the party centers; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES and GSS identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2024 | 95% CI −0.02 to 0.23 | 6,786 | weight (VCF0009z); weight_use | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_off_pos | 19 | survey years | count of matched years in which the ANES distance between the party centers exceeds the GSS distance (each in its own standard deviations) | years in which both the ANES and the GSS asked both questions | 1974-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_off_sig | 15 | survey years | count of matched years in which the interval of the ANES minus GSS distance lies above zero (each in its own standard deviations) | years in which both the ANES and the GSS asked both questions | 1974-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gss_chg | +0.37 | difference in correlation coefficients | change in the pooled GSS correlation between the two windows; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980-1988 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.34 to 0.40 | 21,399 | weight_use | General Social Survey | The 2020-2024 window includes web interviews. |
| gss_d_1980_1986 | +0.17 | difference in correlation coefficients | 1986 minus 1980 GSS correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980 and 1986 | 95% CI 0.08 to 0.25 | 2,808 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_d_1986_1993 | +0.02 | difference in correlation coefficients | 1993 minus 1986 GSS correlation (1986 is the highest estimate before 1993); standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1986 and 1993 | 95% CI −0.05 to 0.10 | 2,918 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_dem_lib_1974 | 36% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | GSS Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 1974 | 95% CI 32% to 40% | 789 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_dem_lib_2024 | 59% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the liberal camp, Wilson interval | GSS Democrat identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 55% to 63% | 1,215 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_gap_1974 | 0.39 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | GSS identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 1974 | 95% CI 0.27 to 0.50 | 1,208 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_gap_2024 | 1.50 | standard deviations of self-placement (survey-wide, all years pooled) | weighted mean ideological self-placement of Republican identifiers minus that of Democratic identifiers, divided by the survey-wide standard deviation of placements | GSS identifiers (leaners included; pure independents excluded) who placed themselves | 2024 | 95% CI 1.39 to 1.60 | 2,304 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_ip_2018 | +0.55 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2018, in-person interviews | 95% CI 0.51 to 0.59 | 1,920 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_ip_2024 | +0.56 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024, in-person interviews | 95% CI 0.50 to 0.61 | 1,029 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_ip_d_2018_2024_design | 0.00 | difference in correlation coefficients | 2024 minus 2018 GSS correlation among in-person respondents; jackknife standard error over primary sampling units within strata, normal interval | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2018 and 2024 | 95% CI −0.09 to 0.10 | 2,949 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_placed_1974 | 96% | percent of respondents with a party identification | weighted share who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale, Wilson interval | GSS respondents with a party identification (other party and not sure excluded) | 1974 | 95% CI 95% to 97% | 1,402 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_placed_2002 | 48% | percent of respondents with a party identification | weighted share who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale, Wilson interval | GSS respondents with a party identification (other party and not sure excluded) | 2002 | 95% CI 46% to 51% | 2,681 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_placed_2024 | 96% | percent of respondents with a party identification | weighted share who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale, Wilson interval | GSS respondents with a party identification (other party and not sure excluded) | 2024 | 95% CI 94% to 96% | 3,185 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_1974 | +0.17 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1974 | 95% CI 0.12 to 0.23 | 1,345 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_1980 | +0.14 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980 | 95% CI 0.08 to 0.21 | 1,418 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_1986 | +0.31 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1986 | 95% CI 0.26 to 0.36 | 1,390 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_2018 | +0.56 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2018 | 95% CI 0.52 to 0.60 | 2,149 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_2020s | +0.63 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2021, 2022 and 2024, waves pooled; web and in-person interviews | 95% CI 0.62 to 0.65 | 10,198 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_2020s_inperson | +0.58 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2022 and 2024, waves pooled; in-person interviews only | 95% CI 0.53 to 0.62 | 2,453 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_2024 | +0.63 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.66 | 3,062 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_r_reagan | +0.27 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.24 to 0.29 | 11,201 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_rep_con_1974 | 42% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | GSS Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 1974 | 95% CI 37% to 47% | 419 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_rep_con_2024 | 71% | percent of the party's identifiers who placed themselves | weighted share in the conservative camp, Wilson interval | GSS Republican identifiers (leaners included) who placed themselves on the liberal-conservative scale | 2024 | 95% CI 67% to 74% | 1,089 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_web_2021 | +0.65 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2021, web interviews | 95% CI 0.62 to 0.67 | 3,370 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| hs_r_2020s | +0.62 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'High school or less' with both answers | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.65 | 2,087 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| hs_r_reagan | +0.26 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'High school or less' with both answers | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.23 to 0.30 | 3,106 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_anes_2012 | −0.02 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus face-to-face ANES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2012 | 95% CI −0.07 to 0.03 | 5,288 | weight_web; weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_anes_2016 | +0.04 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus face-to-face ANES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2016 | 95% CI −0.01 to 0.09 | 3,298 | weight_web; weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_anes_2024 | +0.03 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus face-to-face ANES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI −0.02 to 0.08 | 2,587 | weight_web; weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_gss_2022 | +0.11 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus in-person GSS correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2022 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.17 | 2,985 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| mode_gss_2022_design | +0.11 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus in-person GSS correlation; jackknife standard error over primary sampling units within strata, normal interval | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2022 | 95% CI 0.03 to 0.18 | 2,985 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| mode_gss_2024 | +0.14 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus in-person GSS correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI 0.07 to 0.21 | 2,712 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| mode_gss_2024_design | +0.14 | difference in correlation coefficients | web minus in-person GSS correlation; jackknife standard error over primary sampling units within strata, normal interval | GSS respondents with a party identification (leaners kept, other party excluded) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.24 | 2,712 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| n_design_cells | 7 | year-and-mode cells | count of GSS year and interview-mode cells whose correlation was re-estimated with a design-based standard error | GSS cells behind the interview-mode comparison (2018, 2022, 2024) | 2018-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | General Social Survey |   |
| n_groups | 7 | groups | count of groups compared across the two windows | ANES cohort, education and region groups with a reading in both windows | 1980-1988 and 2020-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_groups_rose | 7 | groups | count of groups whose change between the windows has an interval above zero | ANES cohort, education and region groups with a reading in both windows | 1980-1988 and 2020-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_gss_groups | 3 | groups | count of groups compared across the two windows | GSS cohort and education groups with a reading in both windows (in-person interviews) | 1980-1988 and 2020-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | General Social Survey |   |
| n_gss_groups_rose | 3 | groups | count of groups whose change between the windows has an interval above zero | GSS cohort and education groups with a reading in both windows (in-person interviews) | 1980-1988 and 2020-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | General Social Survey |   |
| n_lens_groups | 8 | groups | count of groups with a yearly correlation line | ANES birth-cohort, education and region groups | 1972-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nonsouth_r_2020s | +0.75 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'Outside the South' with both answers | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76 | 6,103 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nonsouth_r_reagan | +0.44 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'Outside the South' with both answers | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.41 to 0.46 | 4,455 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_ces_max | +0.11 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus CES correlation in the year of the largest difference; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2016 | 95% CI 0.09 to 0.13 | 62,086 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_ces_mean | +0.02 | difference in correlation coefficients | mean over matched years of the ANES minus CES correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.03 | 270,879 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Mean of yearly differences between two independent surveys. |
| off_ces_min | −0.06 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus CES correlation in the year of the smallest difference; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2008 | 95% CI −0.10 to −0.03 | 31,546 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_gss_k | 19 | survey years | count of matched survey years | years in which both the ANES and the GSS asked both questions | 1974-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_gss_max | +0.24 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus GSS correlation in the year of the largest difference; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1980 | 95% CI 0.16 to 0.33 | 2,422 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Year 1980. |
| off_gss_mean | +0.14 | difference in correlation coefficients | mean over matched years of the ANES minus GSS correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1974-2024, 19 matched survey years | 95% CI 0.12 to 0.15 | 69,077 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Mean of yearly differences between two independent surveys. |
| off_gss_min | +0.05 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES minus GSS correlation in the year of the smallest difference; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 1990 | 95% CI −0.02 to 0.12 | 2,616 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Year 1990. |
| off_gss_ns | 2 | survey years | count of matched years in which the interval of the ANES minus GSS difference includes zero | matched ANES and GSS survey years | 1974-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_gss_pos | 19 | survey years | count of matched years in which the ANES correlation exceeds the GSS correlation | matched ANES and GSS survey years | 1974-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_gss_sig | 17 | survey years | count of matched years in which the interval of the ANES minus GSS difference lies above zero | matched ANES and GSS survey years | 1974-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_inperson_2024 | +0.16 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES face-to-face minus GSS in-person correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI 0.09 to 0.24 | 1,897 | weight_ftf; weight_use | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_inperson_k | 4 | survey years | count of matched years with mode information in both surveys | years in which both the ANES and the GSS identify in-person interviews | 2008-2024 |   |   | count of yearly estimates, each weighted | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_inperson_mean | +0.16 | difference in correlation coefficients | mean over matched years of the ANES face-to-face minus GSS in-person correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024 | 95% CI 0.13 to 0.19 | 11,594 | weight_ftf; weight_use | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| off_web_2024 | +0.05 | difference in correlation coefficients | ANES web minus GSS web correlation; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents with a party identification (leaners kept) and a liberal-conservative self-placement | 2024 | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09 | 3,402 | weight_web; weight_use | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| old_chg | +0.25 | difference in correlation coefficients | change in the pooled ANES correlation among respondents born before 1943; standard errors of independent estimates combined in quadrature | ANES respondents born before 1943 with both answers | 1980-1988 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.32 | 3,563 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| old_neff_2024 | 104 | effective respondents (Kish effective sample size) | Kish effective sample size of the weighted 2024 sample behind the yearly correlation | ANES respondents born before 1943 with both answers | 2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| old_r_2016 | +0.73 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents born before 1943 with both answers | 2016, yearly estimate | 95% CI 0.66 to 0.79 | 297 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| old_r_2020s | +0.67 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'Born before 1943' with both answers | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.72 | 684 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| old_r_2024 | +0.61 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents born before 1943 with both answers | 2024, yearly estimate | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.72 | 217 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| old_r_reagan | +0.41 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'Born before 1943' with both answers | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.38 to 0.44 | 2,879 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| south_r_2020s | +0.71 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'South' with both answers | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.69 to 0.73 | 3,525 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| south_r_reagan | +0.31 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'South' with both answers | 1980-1988, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.27 to 0.35 | 2,027 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| young_r_2020s | +0.74 | correlation coefficient, minus 1 to plus 1 | weighted Pearson correlation between party identification and liberal-conservative self-placement | ANES respondents in the group 'Born 1975 or later' with both answers | 2020 and 2024, waves pooled | 95% CI 0.72 to 0.76 | 4,577 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |

## Definitions

- Correlation: A number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other.
- Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.
- Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
- Confidence interval: A range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.
- Party sorting: The alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits.
- Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
- Survey mode: How respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.
- Cohort: People born in the same period, such as the same decade. Comparing cohorts shows whether a difference comes from when people were born, as distinct from their age or the year they were surveyed.

## Methods

Sample: respondents who answered both the party-identification question and the liberal-conservative self-placement question: 43,947 ANES respondents in 22 survey years from 1972 to 2024, 64,452 GSS respondents in 33 survey years from 1974 to 2024 and 638,338 CES respondents in 19 survey years from 2006 to 2024. The three surveys share no respondents, and every estimate is computed inside one survey; surveys are compared, never pooled. Measures: party identification is the seven-point scale (ANES pid_7pt; GSS partyid 0 to 6 with the other-party code dropped; CES pid7 with not sure dropped), which gives leaners their own points. Ideology is the seven-point liberal-conservative scale in the ANES (lib_con_7pt) and the GSS (polviews) and the five-point scale in the CES (ideo5, not sure dropped). Every scale runs from Democratic or liberal to Republican or conservative by its codebook, so a positive correlation means that conservatives sit with Republicans; the sign is never chosen from a result. Respondents who do not place themselves on the ideology scale are missing on that item and are left out, so every estimate describes people who placed themselves. Estimators: the survey-weighted Pearson correlation of the party scale and the ideology scale within a survey and year; for pooled windows (1980 to 1988 and 2020 to 2024) the respondents of all survey years of one survey in the window are estimated together with its weight. The distance between the party centers is the weighted mean placement of Republican identifiers (leaners included) minus that of Democratic identifiers (leaners included), divided by the weighted standard deviation of placements among all placers in the survey over all years (first view) or in the same year (second view); pure independents are left out of the distance. Shares of ideological camps are weighted shares among identifiers who placed themselves. Weights: ANES weight (VCF0009z); interview-mode estimates use weight_ftf for face-to-face respondents and weight_web for web respondents, which exist for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024 only; GSS weight_use, with interview mode joined from the raw file (recorded from 2004); CES weight within a survey year and weight_cumulative for pooled windows. In-person view of Figure 1: it uses the recorded mode where the file has one (ANES face-to-face from 2008, GSS in person from 2004) and all respondents in the earlier years, which were interviewed mainly in person, except that it leaves out the ANES studies of 1998, 2000 and 2002, which used telephone interviews wholly or in part. It leaves out the CES, which is online only, and draws no line across a year with no in-person estimate. In the interview-mode figure, telephone and other GSS interviews are in the all-interviews line and in neither of the other two; in the ANES the 2024 face-to-face and web estimates leave out the panel and paper respondents. Intervals: 95% intervals from Fisher z on the Kish effective sample size for correlations, a normal interval on the effective sample size for means, and a Wilson interval for shares. A difference between two independent estimates combines their standard errors in quadrature, and the standard error of a correlation r is taken as (1 minus r squared) divided by the square root of the effective sample size minus 3. The mean of yearly differences treats years as independent samples. Differences in changes are formed only between disjoint groups. All intervals are model based: they treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and do not follow the sampling design (stratification and clustering of respondents within sampled areas). For the seven GSS year-and-interview-mode cells behind the interview-mode comparison (2018, 2022 and 2024) the chapter also reports a design-based check: the stratified delete-one-primary-sampling-unit jackknife on the GSS variables vstrat and vpsu (two primary sampling units in every stratum of those years), with the same estimator and weights. Its standard errors are 1.13 to 1.68 times the model-based ones, and the web minus in-person differences and the 2018 to 2024 in-person difference use it. Design-based intervals were not computed for the ANES (its variance-estimation variables take only one or two values a year from 1972 to 1990) or the CES (an online panel of volunteers, weighted to match population totals). Suppression: a survey-year or group-year cell is drawn only with at least 150 respondents and a Kish effective sample of at least 100; a pooled group cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of at least 100 in each window. Groups: birth cohort is the ANES cohort code grouped into born before 1943, 1943 to 1974 and 1975 or later (GSS: year minus age); education groups grade school with high school (GSS: no bachelor's degree against bachelor's degree or more, because the GSS degree item cannot separate some college from a high school diploma); region is the census South against the other census regions. The GSS comparison of the two windows uses in-person interviews only in 2020 to 2024. Coverage: among ANES respondents with a party answer, 34 percent have an ideology placement in 2000, against 57 to 91 percent in the other years (1972 to 2024); among GSS respondents, 48, 48 and 46 percent have one in 1983, 2002 and 2004, against 93 percent or more in the other years. The share who placed themselves is reported only from years outside those exceptions. The ANES 2020 wave has no mode weights. Item order, wording and response options differ across the three surveys, and this chapter does not adjust for those differences.

## What these data cannot show

- The data are repeated cross-sections, so they show that party and self-placement became more tightly linked and do not show which of the two changed.
- A panel study that followed the same people found movement in both directions: some changed party identification to match their issue positions, and others changed issue positions to match their party [6].
- A study of issue attitudes over 1972 to 2004 found that attitudes came to line up with party more than they lined up with each other [7].
- The rise in the correlation here is a rise in the link between two labels and is silent on which label moved first.
- Self-placement is a label.
- Its meaning for respondents draws partly on their feelings toward the groups and symbols tied to each label [8], and the public is more likely to call itself conservative than liberal while favoring more government action on many problems [9].
- A rise in the correlation between party and label is not a rise in the correlation between party and any set of policy positions.
- The correlation also says nothing about extremity, and the distance between party averages in scale points is a separate measure.
- The three surveys give different levels, and these data cannot say which is closer to the level in the population.
- The GSS reading of the 2020s mixes web and in-person interviews that give different correlations, and the ANES mode weights are missing for 2020, so mode is identified in only some years.
- Every estimate describes respondents who placed themselves, and the share who did so differs between ANES years.
- The intervals are model based and do not follow the sampling design.
- Where the design could be checked, in the GSS cells behind the mode comparison, the design-based standard errors were 1.13 to 1.68 times the model-based ones.
- The ANES and CES intervals were not checked that way, and the CES intervals rest on the weighting of an online panel of volunteers to population totals.
- The data hold no measure of what party leaders did.
- They cannot say whether the electorate moved toward parties that had moved apart or the parties moved apart because the electorate had.
- Planned, Polarization in Congress (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/polarization-in-congress; planned) takes up how far apart the parties are in Congress.

## References

1. Levendusky, Matthew (2009). The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. University of Chicago Press.
2. Converse, Philip E. (1964). The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. In David E. Apter (ed.), Ideology and Discontent. New York: Free Press, pp. 206-261.
3. Abramowitz, Alan I.; Saunders, Kyle L. (1998). Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate. Journal of Politics 60(3): 634-652. https://doi.org/10.2307/2647642
4. Fisher, Ronald A. (1921). On the Probable Error of a Coefficient of Correlation Deduced from a Small Sample. Metron 1(4): 3-32.
5. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
6. Carsey, Thomas M.; Layman, Geoffrey C. (2006). Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate. American Journal of Political Science 50(2): 464-477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00196.x
7. Baldassarri, Delia; Gelman, Andrew (2008). Partisans without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion. American Journal of Sociology 114(2): 408-446. https://doi.org/10.1086/590649
8. Conover, Pamela Johnston; Feldman, Stanley (1981). The Origins and Meaning of Liberal/Conservative Self-Identifications. American Journal of Political Science 25(4): 617-645. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2110756
9. Ellis, Christopher; Stimson, James A. (2012). Ideology in America. Cambridge University Press.

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/party-and-ideology/build.py (sha256 e3da33bb0c0e3fa63b5b246b4cb4e290c77a5708d798b6b775fff2831e798618)
- Built on: 2026-09-30
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

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## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "staircase" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/staircase.json
- Table 2, figure "mode" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/mode.json
- Table 3, figure "gap" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/gap.json
- Table 4, figure "groups" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/groups.json
- Table 5, figure "eras" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/eras.json
- Table 6, figure "camps" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/party-and-ideology/figures/camps.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt