# Cohort change in partisan sorting: report

Chapter 2.1 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Cohort change in partisan sorting
- Chapter: 2.1 (Part II, Change and partisan feeling; Labels, sorting and partisan feeling)
- Question: Did the share of cross-pressured partisans fall within birth cohorts, and how much of the fall could cohort replacement account for?
- Dek: Among ANES partisans who place themselves on the ideology scale, conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans fell from 19.6% in 1972 to 6.3% in 2024.
- Grain: individuals
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-09-30
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - ANES Cumulative Data File. Cumulative Data File, study years 1972-2024 that carry the seven-point ideology item; years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight (VCF0009z)
  - ANES 2024 Time Series. 2024 Time Series, Census region of the sample location (V243007) for the 2024 panel and paper cases; years: 2024 (pre-election and post-election interviews); weights: none (a respondent attribute)
  - Cooperative Election Study. Cumulative file, even-year waves 2006-2024, party identification and five-point ideology, for the second-survey comparison; years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years); weights: weight of each wave (the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026howthesorthappened

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026howthesorthappened,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Cohort change in partisan sorting},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 | 19.6% | 95% CI 17.6% to 21.8% | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | cross_1972 |
| weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 | 6.3% | 95% CI 5.4% to 7.4% | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | cross_2024 |
| count of study years with placed partisans | ANES study years that carry the seven-point ideology item | 1972-2024 | 22 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_years |
| count of placed partisans over all study years | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972-2024 | 39,662 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_placed |

## Findings

In 1972, 19.6% of the Democrats and Republicans in the American National Election Studies (ANES) who placed themselves on the seven-point liberal-conservative scale were conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans, whom this chapter calls cross-pressured partisans. In 2024 the share was 6.3%. (Note: The word has another meaning in Planned, Partisans in the other party's territory (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/partisans-outvoted-at-home; planned), which is about partisans who live where their party loses. The correlation between party identification and ideology is the subject of Chapter 1.1, Party and ideology (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology), and Chapter 4.7, Sort dates by attitude (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude) dates the sort attitude by attitude. How tightly issue positions bundle inside each party is the subject of Planned, Constraint among issue positions (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/constraint-among-issue-positions; planned).) The ANES draws a new sample at each election, so it cannot follow the same people and cannot show that any individual switched. It can show whether the fall occurs within groups of people born in the same years, so every statement in this chapter is about birth cohorts.

Two accounts differ in where the fall occurs. Under replacement, each cohort keeps roughly the rate it had when it entered the electorate, and the national share falls as the older cohorts that held mixed positions leave the sample and younger cohorts with lower rates arrive. Under within-cohort change, the rate falls inside each cohort as the years pass. The fall appears inside the cohorts born 1927 to 1974, and the share of it that replacement accounts for depends on assumptions the data cannot test.

A placed partisan is a Democrat or Republican, with leaners counted with the party they lean toward, who gives a position on the scale. Positions on the liberal side are liberal, the midpoint is moderate and positions on the conservative side are conservative. A fully sorted partisan is a liberal Democrat or a conservative Republican, the pattern that party sorting produces. The chapter uses the 22 ANES study years since 1972 that carry the item, which gives 39,662 placed partisans, and every estimate uses the survey weights. (Note: Each interval is a confidence interval computed with the Wilson method [1] on the Kish effective sample size [2]. The intervals treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample and ignore clustering and stratification, which can raise or lower the variance. The last section says which verdicts a larger variance would change.)

### The cross-pressured share was level until 1990, then fell

Table 1 plots the yearly share. From 1972 to 1990 it stayed between 17.0% (95% CI 15.1% to 19.0%) in 1984 and 20.3% (95% CI 17.8% to 23.1%) in 1980. It was 19.7% (95% CI 17.5% to 22.0%) in 1990, 11.5% (95% CI 9.4% to 14.0%) in 2004 and 5.2% (95% CI 4.5% to 5.9%) in 2020, and the fall from 1972 to 2024 is 13.3 (95% CI 10.9 to 15.6) points. The share in 2024, 6.3% (95% CI 5.4% to 7.4%), differs from the 2020 share by +1.2 (95% CI −0.1 to 2.4) points, an interval that includes zero and runs up to 2.4 points, so the data cannot separate a plateau from a rise of up to that size. The 2024 sample mixes interview modes, and the notes to the figure give the estimate for each mode. The 2000 point comes from a study that put the item to a subsample of respondents, which the section on unplaced partisans describes.

Table 1. Cross-pressured partisans fell from 19.6% of placed partisans in 1972 to 6.3% in 2024

The fall appears in both parties (the By party tab of Table 1). Conservatives were 24.6% (95% CI 21.7% to 27.8%) of placed Democrats in 1972 and 8.2% (95% CI 6.7% to 10.0%) in 2024. Liberals were 13.1% (95% CI 10.6% to 16.1%) of placed Republicans in 1972 and 4.4% (95% CI 3.3% to 5.8%) in 2024. The 2024 share is 0.33 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.42) of the 1972 share among Democrats and 0.33 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.47) among Republicans, although conservative Democrats started higher and fell further in points. Over the same years the fully sorted share rose from 43.6% (95% CI 41.0% to 46.3%) to 69.3% (95% CI 67.3% to 71.2%) and the moderate share fell from 36.8% (95% CI 34.2% to 39.3%) to 24.4% (95% CI 22.6% to 26.2%) (the Sorted and moderate tab). This is the pattern in Levendusky's account of the partisan sort, in which liberals became Democrats and conservatives became Republicans [3].

### The fall appears in cohorts born 1927 to 1974

Table 2 traces one birth cohort per panel, and Table 3 gives each cohort's change from its first to its last plotted decade. The 1943 to 1958 cohort went from 17.6% (95% CI 15.7% to 19.6%) in the 1970s to 8.9% (95% CI 7.5% to 10.5%) in the 2010s and 5.0% (95% CI 4.0% to 6.1%) in the 2020s, a change of −12.6 (95% CI −14.9 to −10.4) points. The cohorts born 1927 to 1942 and 1959 to 1974 fell as well, with changes of −8.7 (95% CI −12.6 to −4.7) and −14.9 (95% CI −17.9 to −11.9) points, and the cohort born 1991 or later changed by −4.9 (95% CI −8.6 to −1.1) points between the 2010s and the 2020s. The two oldest cohorts have enough respondents only through the 1980s (born 1895 to 1910) and the 2000s (born 1911 to 1926), and their changes are −3.3 (95% CI −8.5 to 1.9) and −1.5 (95% CI −7.9 to 4.9) points; the change for the 1975 to 1990 cohort, whose first cell has 153 respondents, is −4.9 (95% CI −10.5 to 0.6) points. All three intervals include zero.

Table 2. Every cohort born 1927 to 1974 fell, mostly after 1990

Table 3. The changes for the two oldest cohorts and the 1975 to 1990 cohort include zero, and the other cohorts fell

#### What a cohort line contains

A cohort line follows a group of people born in the same years, and the group changes as the years pass. It mixes four things: individuals who changed party or ideology; loss, because some members of a cohort die or stop answering surveys; entry, because a cohort keeps arriving in the sample as its youngest members reach adulthood; and changes in who is a partisan and who places themselves on the scale. (Note: The 1943 to 1958 cohort was not fully adult in the 1970s. People born from 1955 on reached voting age during that decade, so its 1970s cell includes newcomers to the sample.)

A simple bound shows what loss alone would require. In the 1943 to 1958 cohort the odds of being cross-pressured in the 2020s are 0.24 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.32) times the odds in the 1970s. If loss alone produced that fall, the cross-pressured would have had to survive, and stay in the survey samples, at only that fraction of the rate of other partisans over the whole period. The bound covers one channel, loss, and gives no estimate of anyone's mortality or of the other three channels.

Studies that re-interview the same people find movement in both directions. A panel of the 1992 to 1996 elections found that people who saw party differences on an issue they cared about changed party to fit their views, and people who saw differences on an issue they did not care about changed their views to fit their party [4]. A panel that followed one cohort from 1973 to 1997 found that partisanship shaped issue orientations early and that issue orientations shaped partisanship later [5]. Work on the 1992 to 1994 ANES panel describes citizens choosing a party identification to match their policy preferences as the parties' positions became clearer [6]. A cohort line also mixes age and period, because a cohort ages a decade in each step and age, period and cohort effects cannot be separated without further assumptions [7]. Chapter 3.7, Age and generation (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/age-and-generation) takes up what repeated surveys can and cannot separate.

### The cohort-mix share of the fall depends on assumptions

Table 4 puts a number on replacement. The exercise takes the observed mix of birth cohorts among placed partisans in each decade and applies fixed cohort rates to it. The mix changed: 38.5% of placed partisans in the 1970s were born before 1927, and 73.9% of those in the 2020s were born after 1958.

The first version freezes every cohort at its 1970s rate. Cohorts without enough respondents in the 1970s, which are the cohorts born after 1958 and the oldest, take the mean 1970s cohort rate of 18.5%. This version predicts a 2020s share of 18.3% (95% CI 17.1% to 19.5%), against 5.6% (95% CI 5.0% to 6.3%) observed, and the change in the mix alone moves the share by +0.1 (95% CI −0.2 to 0.3) points, which is −0.4% (95% CI −2.2% to 1.4%) of the fall. That result is close to built in, because the assumption gives later cohorts the rate of the older ones.

The second version freezes every cohort at its entry rate, the rate it had in the first decade in which it has enough respondents. The older cohorts keep their 1970s rates, and the later ones take 21.4% for people born 1959 to 1974, 10.4% for 1975 to 1990 and 8.9% for 1991 or later. This version predicts 15.1% (95% CI 13.5% to 16.7%) for the 2020s. The mix alone then lowers the share by 3.2 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.0) points, which is 25.2% (95% CI 10.8% to 38.0%) of the fall in the observed share from the 1970s to the 2020s, 12.8 (95% CI 11.5 to 14.2) points. This version credits replacement with everything that distinguishes later cohorts when they arrive, including the part that comes from the years in which they arrived. It is the more generous of the two versions and is not an upper bound.

Table 4. Freezing cohort rates predicts a 2020s cross-pressured share of 15.1% to 18.3%, against 5.6% observed

Table 5 gives the mix effect under those two versions and three variations of the second: a stricter and a looser rule for a well-observed cell, and a limiting case that holds the cohorts born after 1958 at their own 2020s rates instead of their entry rates. The limiting case counts the fall inside those cohorts as a fixed cohort trait, so it is not a replacement counterfactual, and it shows that the answer depends on the rate given to a cohort before it is observed.

Table 5. The share of the fall due to the mix of cohorts ranges from −0.4% to 74.0% depending on the rates given to later cohorts

The parts sum to the fall. Under the second version the share falls by 9.6 (95% CI 7.9 to 11.4) points inside cohorts and by 3.2 points through the mix, together 12.8 points. Under the first version the inside-cohort part is 12.9 (95% CI 11.5 to 14.3) points and the mix moves the share by +0.1 points. The inside-cohort part is the observed fall minus the mix part, so it also contains a small residual that the notes to Table 4 give. Both versions are accounting statements. They hold cohort rates fixed by assumption and do not say why the rates fell.

### The education gap widened, then returned to its 1970s size

The change in the education mix accounts for 1.3 (95% CI 0.9 to 1.8) points, or 10.3% (95% CI 6.6% to 15.1%), of the fall of 12.7 (95% CI 11.4 to 13.9) points in this sample. College graduates went from 20.6% (95% CI 19.4% to 21.8%) of placed partisans in the 1970s to 41.3% (95% CI 40.0% to 42.6%) in the 2020s, and applying the 1970s education mix to the 2020s group rates gives a cross-pressured share of 7.0% (95% CI 6.1% to 8.1%) in the 2020s, against 5.7% (95% CI 5.1% to 6.4%) observed. The remainder of the fall occurs inside education groups.

Table 6 plots the cross-pressured share for each education group. The gap between partisans with a high school education or less and college graduates was 5.4 (95% CI 2.6 to 8.3) points in the 1970s, 11.3 (95% CI 9.2 to 13.5) in the 1990s, 11.0 (95% CI 8.1 to 14.0) in the 2000s and 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 6.9) in the 2020s. The 2020s interval excludes zero and overlaps the 1970s interval, so the gap returned to about its starting size and did not close.

Table 6. The education gap in the cross-pressured share was 5.4 points in the 1970s, 11.3 in the 1990s and 5.1 in the 2020s

College graduates fell first. Their share lies below its 1970s interval from the 1990s on, and the shares of partisans with some college and with a high school education or less lie below theirs from the 2010s on. The timing is descriptive, since the data hold no measure of exposure to elite messages.

### The South's gap in the Democratic share of conservatives closed

Table 7 compares the South with the rest of the country. In the 1970s 48.6% (95% CI 44.5% to 52.8%) of placed Southern conservatives were Democrats, against 30.6% (95% CI 27.9% to 33.3%) outside the South, a gap of 18.1 (95% CI 13.1 to 23.0) points. In the 2020s the shares were 9.3% (95% CI 7.7% to 11.2%) and 8.3% (95% CI 7.0% to 9.9%), and the gap of 1.0 (95% CI −1.3 to 3.3) points is within sampling error of zero. The cross-pressured share of all placed partisans fell in both regions, from 22.9% (95% CI 20.7% to 25.2%) to 6.9% (95% CI 5.9% to 8.1%) in the South and from 16.4% (95% CI 15.1% to 17.8%) to 4.9% (95% CI 4.2% to 5.6%) elsewhere, and a gap of 2.0 (95% CI 0.7 to 3.3) points remains, down from 6.5 (95% CI 3.9 to 9.1) points in the 1970s.

Table 7. Southern and other partisans converged as the Democratic share of conservatives fell from 48.6% to 9.3% in the South and 30.6% to 8.3% elsewhere

The rise of Southern Republicans has been traced through offices and elections [8], and the data here describe how respondents label themselves. The cumulative file has no region for the 2,049 placed partisans among the 2024 panel and paper cases, the same cases that have no mode weight. Their region comes from the sample location recorded in the 2024 Time Series file, which reproduces the cumulative-file flag for every 2024 respondent who has both. Planned, The South (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-south; planned) compares the region with the rest of the country on other gaps.

### The fall is smaller with unplaced partisans in the base

The base of every share so far is the placed partisans, and that base changed. The share of partisans who placed themselves was 59.7% (95% CI 57.7% to 61.7%) in 1972, between 65.2% and 81.2% in the study years from 1974 to 2008 other than 2000, between 77.1% and 92.5% from 2012 to 2024, and 85.8% (95% CI 84.3% to 87.1%) in 2024. The 2000 value, 35.6% (95% CI 33.1% to 38.3%), reflects the design of that study. 52.1% of the 2000 respondents have no recorded answer to the item, against at most 0.9% in 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2004, and among the respondents who have an answer the share choosing "don't know" is 22.3%, inside the 16.8% to 24.0% range of those years. That pattern fits an item put to a subsample of respondents. The 2000 point therefore rests on 603 placed partisans, and its low placement rate is not evidence that more partisans declined the scale. The design is inferred from the response pattern and has not been checked against the codebook.

Partisans who decline the scale are outside every share above, and many Americans do not describe their views with ideological labels [9]. Three checks ask whether the fall depends on who is in the base. The first reweights placed partisans, within each year, to the party, education, age group and race mix of all partisans in that year. The second divides cross-pressured partisans by everyone with a party identification and a placement, so pure independents stay in the denominator. The third divides by all partisans and counts those who did not place themselves as not cross-pressured; Table 8 leaves that series blank for 2000, when the item went to a subsample. The reweighted share goes from 19.9% (95% CI 17.8% to 22.2%) to 6.9% (95% CI 5.8% to 8.1%), a fall of 13.0 (95% CI 10.5 to 15.5) points, and the share with independents included from 17.4% (95% CI 15.6% to 19.4%) to 6.0% (95% CI 5.1% to 7.1%), a fall of 11.4 (95% CI 9.2 to 13.5) points, against 19.6% and 6.3% for the placed partisans. The share of all partisans goes from 11.7% (95% CI 10.5% to 13.1%) to 5.4% (95% CI 4.6% to 6.4%), a fall of 6.3 (95% CI 4.7 to 7.9) points against 13.3 points for the placed partisans, because the share of partisans who placed themselves rose from 59.7% to 85.8%.

Table 8. The fall is 11.4 to 13.3 points under three bases and 6.3 points when unplaced partisans count as not cross-pressured

The reweighting corrects for the traits it uses. The 13.3-point fall for placed partisans carries over to all partisans only if the partisans who place themselves resemble those who do not on those traits, an assumption the ANES cannot test. With no assumption about the unplaced, the 1972 share lies between 11.7% and 52.0% and the 2024 share between 5.4% and 19.6%. The two ranges overlap, so the data alone fix neither the direction nor the size of the change.

### A second survey follows a different path, 2008 to 2016

The Cooperative Election Study (CES) asks party identification and a five-point ideology item every year from 2006. It is an opt-in online sample, and its intervals, like the ANES intervals, describe sampling variation and leave out selection into the sample. This chapter uses the even-year waves, which are the main national waves, and leaves out the smaller odd-year waves. The series starts after most of the ANES fall, so it cannot show whether the fall happened. Within a survey the coding is held fixed, so a path needs no mapping between the scales. From 2008 to 2016 the ANES share fell by 4.1 (95% CI 1.8 to 6.4) points and the CES share rose by 3.0 (95% CI 2.5 to 3.4) points (Table 9). From 2008 to 2024 both fell, the ANES by 4.9 (95% CI 2.7 to 7.2) points and the CES by 1.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.2). The chapter takes from the CES only that both surveys read lower in 2024 than in 2008 and that the CES does not follow the ANES path from 2008 to 2016. It does not use the CES to corroborate the size of the ANES fall.

Table 9. From 2008 to 2016 the ANES cross-pressured share fell while the CES share rose

Levels are a different matter, because the two surveys use different scales and the level of the cross-pressured share depends on how the seven-point scale is mapped to the five-point one. Table 10 gives the CES-to-ANES ratio of the share under two mappings. When every point on each side of the midpoint counts as liberal or conservative, the ratio is 0.49 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.59) in 2008 and 0.58 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.70) in 2024, so the CES share is the lower one in both years. When only the two outer points on each side count, the ratio is 1.22 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.64) and 1.41 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.85), and its interval lies above one in every shared year except 2008. The sign of the level difference follows the mapping, and no mapping is correct by construction, so the chapter draws no conclusion about which survey reads higher.

Table 10. The CES share is above or below the ANES share depending on how the seven-point scale is mapped to the five-point one

### What these data cannot show

Repeated cross-sections cannot show that any person switched, and no panel is in this chapter's data. The chapter also cannot say which identity moved. A conservative Democrat who leaves the cross-pressured group may have changed party to match ideology or changed ideology to match party, and the share counts both the same way. Age, period and cohort are not separated. The accounting exercise rests on assumptions about the rates of cohorts that were not observed in the 1970s. The versions above put the share of the fall due to the mix of cohorts at −0.4% in the first version, at 25.2% in the second and at 74.0% in the limiting case, and the data do not choose among them.

The measure covers only people who place themselves on the scale. The reweighting handles differences in observed traits, and the ANES cannot show what people who decline the scale would have answered; with them in the base the fall is smaller. The scale may mean different things across decades and education groups, and the CES comparison shows that a comparison of levels across scales depends on the mapping. The ANES added an online sample in 2012, has no weights by interview mode for 2020, and gives a 2024 estimate that differs by mode within sampling error.

The intervals are model based and ignore clustering and stratification, which can raise or lower the variance, and the chapter runs no design-based check. As an illustration, if clustering made the sampling variance larger by a design effect (the ratio of the true sampling variance to the model-based variance) of 2, every interval would extend 41% further from its estimate on each side. Among the cohort changes, the cohort-mix effect, the regional and education gaps and the fall from 1972 to 2024, one verdict would change: the interval for the change in the cohort born 1991 or later would become −4.9 (95% CI −10.1 to 0.4) and include zero.

The data hold no measure of what parties and elites did. One account in the literature holds that party leaders clarified what the labels meant [3], and this chapter tests none of it. Chapter 4.7, Sort dates by attitude (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude) dates the sort issue by issue.

## Tables

### Table 1. Cross-pressured partisans fell from 19.6% of placed partisans in 1972 to 6.3% in 2024

Percent of placed partisans who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans, ANES 1972-2024, with 95% intervals

| Measure | Year | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents in the base |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1972 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 21.8 | 1,371 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1974 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 21.3 | 977 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1976 | 17.8 | 15.8 | 20.0 | 1,306 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1978 | 18.0 | 16.1 | 20.0 | 1,430 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1980 | 20.3 | 17.8 | 23.1 | 892 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1982 | 18.1 | 15.6 | 20.9 | 806 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1984 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 19.0 | 1,401 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1986 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 20.5 | 1,441 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1988 | 18.6 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 1,286 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1990 | 19.7 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 1,220 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1992 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 18.8 | 1,630 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1994 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 1,279 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1996 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 16.9 | 1,233 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1998 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 18.3 | 922 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2000 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 19.5 | 603 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2002 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 17.5 | 1,171 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2004 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 849 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2008 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 1,448 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2012 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 4,613 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2016 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2,949 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2020 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6,353 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2024 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 4,482 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1972 | 24.6 | 21.7 | 27.8 | 776 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1974 | 23.0 | 19.2 | 27.1 | 573 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1976 | 24.1 | 21.0 | 27.4 | 725 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1978 | 23.1 | 20.4 | 26.0 | 867 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1980 | 28.0 | 24.3 | 32.0 | 515 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1982 | 25.5 | 21.8 | 29.6 | 479 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1984 | 22.3 | 19.4 | 25.4 | 719 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1986 | 24.6 | 21.7 | 27.7 | 793 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1988 | 27.4 | 24.1 | 31.0 | 638 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1990 | 25.9 | 22.7 | 29.3 | 673 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1992 | 23.4 | 20.7 | 26.3 | 871 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1994 | 22.6 | 19.2 | 26.5 | 622 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1996 | 21.8 | 18.5 | 25.4 | 667 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 1998 | 21.5 | 17.9 | 25.6 | 515 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2000 | 22.3 | 17.6 | 27.7 | 319 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2002 | 21.1 | 17.3 | 25.6 | 568 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2004 | 16.1 | 12.7 | 20.2 | 438 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2008 | 16.6 | 13.7 | 19.9 | 894 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2012 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 16.4 | 2,709 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2016 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 1,467 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2020 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 3,277 |
| Conservative share of placed Democrats | 2024 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 2,310 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1972 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 16.1 | 595 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1974 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 15.4 | 404 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1976 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 12.5 | 581 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1978 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 12.9 | 563 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1980 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 13.2 | 377 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1982 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 10.7 | 327 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1984 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 14.0 | 682 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1986 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 13.6 | 648 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1988 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 12.4 | 648 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1990 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 15.1 | 547 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1992 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 759 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1994 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 657 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1996 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 566 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 1998 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 407 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2000 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 13.0 | 284 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2002 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 11.4 | 603 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2004 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 9.7 | 411 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2008 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 554 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2012 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 1,904 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2016 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1,482 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2020 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3,076 |
| Liberal share of placed Republicans | 2024 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 2,172 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1972 | 43.6 | 41.0 | 46.3 | 1,371 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1974 | 46.0 | 42.4 | 49.6 | 977 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1976 | 46.9 | 44.2 | 49.7 | 1,306 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1978 | 46.7 | 44.1 | 49.3 | 1,430 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1980 | 50.2 | 46.9 | 53.5 | 892 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1982 | 47.5 | 44.1 | 51.0 | 806 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1984 | 51.6 | 49.0 | 54.2 | 1,401 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1986 | 46.1 | 43.5 | 48.7 | 1,441 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1988 | 51.8 | 49.1 | 54.5 | 1,286 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1990 | 44.8 | 42.1 | 47.6 | 1,220 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1992 | 53.2 | 50.7 | 55.6 | 1,630 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1994 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 56.2 | 1,279 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1996 | 55.0 | 51.9 | 58.0 | 1,233 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 1998 | 50.2 | 46.7 | 53.7 | 922 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2000 | 54.2 | 49.7 | 58.5 | 603 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2002 | 57.7 | 54.3 | 61.1 | 1,171 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2004 | 57.0 | 53.3 | 60.6 | 849 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2008 | 63.1 | 60.0 | 66.1 | 1,448 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2012 | 60.6 | 58.7 | 62.5 | 4,613 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2016 | 68.8 | 66.8 | 70.7 | 2,949 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2020 | 71.7 | 70.2 | 73.1 | 6,353 |
| Fully sorted share of placed partisans | 2024 | 69.3 | 67.3 | 71.2 | 4,482 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1972 | 36.8 | 34.2 | 39.3 | 1,371 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1974 | 35.6 | 32.2 | 39.2 | 977 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1976 | 35.3 | 32.7 | 38.0 | 1,306 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1978 | 35.3 | 32.9 | 37.8 | 1,430 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1980 | 29.5 | 26.6 | 32.6 | 892 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1982 | 34.4 | 31.2 | 37.7 | 806 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1984 | 31.4 | 29.0 | 33.9 | 1,401 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1986 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 38.0 | 1,441 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1988 | 29.6 | 27.2 | 32.2 | 1,286 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1990 | 35.5 | 32.9 | 38.2 | 1,220 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1992 | 29.9 | 27.8 | 32.2 | 1,630 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1994 | 33.1 | 30.4 | 36.0 | 1,279 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1996 | 30.5 | 27.7 | 33.4 | 1,233 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 1998 | 34.2 | 31.0 | 37.6 | 922 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2000 | 29.9 | 26.0 | 34.1 | 603 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2002 | 27.4 | 24.4 | 30.6 | 1,171 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2004 | 31.5 | 28.2 | 35.0 | 849 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2008 | 25.6 | 22.9 | 28.5 | 1,448 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2012 | 29.6 | 27.9 | 31.4 | 4,613 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2016 | 24.0 | 22.2 | 25.9 | 2,949 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2020 | 23.2 | 21.8 | 24.6 | 6,353 |
| Moderate share of placed partisans | 2024 | 24.4 | 22.6 | 26.2 | 4,482 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1972 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 21.8 | 1,371 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1974 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 21.3 | 977 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1976 | 17.8 | 15.8 | 20.0 | 1,306 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1978 | 18.0 | 16.1 | 20.0 | 1,430 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1980 | 20.3 | 17.8 | 23.1 | 892 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1982 | 18.1 | 15.6 | 20.9 | 806 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1984 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 19.0 | 1,401 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1986 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 20.5 | 1,441 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1988 | 18.6 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 1,286 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1990 | 19.7 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 1,220 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1992 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 18.8 | 1,630 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1994 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 1,279 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1996 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 16.9 | 1,233 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 1998 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 18.3 | 922 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2000 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 19.5 | 603 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2002 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 17.5 | 1,171 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2004 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 849 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2008 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 1,448 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2012 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 4,613 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2016 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2,949 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2020 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6,353 |
| Cross-pressured share of placed partisans | 2024 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 4,482 |

Views: Cross-pressured share (view = overall); By party (view = party); Sorted and moderate (view = three).

Note: There was no ANES study in 2006, 2010 or 2014, so the line joins the neighboring study years.

Note: The 2000 point rests on 603 placed partisans, the fewest in any year. The seven-point item went to a subsample of respondents that year: 52.1% of respondents have no recorded answer, and 35.6% of partisans placed themselves.

Note: The ANES adds an online sample in 2012, and 2020 has no separate weights by interview mode. In 2024 the share is 7.2% in the face-to-face sample, 4.6% in the web sample and 7.1% among the 2,049 panel and paper cases (45.7% of the placed partisans in 2024), which have no separate weights by interview mode.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/cross_share.json

### Table 2. Every cohort born 1927 to 1974 fell, mostly after 1990

Cross-pressured share of placed partisans by birth cohort (solid) and for all placed partisans (dashed), ANES survey years pooled by decade, 1972-2024, with 95% intervals

| Panel | Series | Survey years pooled | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Placed partisans |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Born 1895-1910 | This cohort | 1972-1978 | 19.7 | 16.6 | 23.3 | 644 |
| Born 1895-1910 | This cohort | 1980-1988 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 20.9 | 328 |
| Born 1895-1910 | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1895-1910 | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1895-1910 | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1895-1910 | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1895-1910 | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1895-1910 | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |
| Born 1911-1926 | This cohort | 1972-1978 | 18.1 | 15.9 | 20.5 | 1,262 |
| Born 1911-1926 | This cohort | 1980-1988 | 18.5 | 16.3 | 21.0 | 1,053 |
| Born 1911-1926 | This cohort | 1990-1998 | 19.8 | 17.1 | 22.7 | 835 |
| Born 1911-1926 | This cohort | 2000-2008 | 16.6 | 11.5 | 23.4 | 201 |
| Born 1911-1926 | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1911-1926 | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1911-1926 | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1911-1926 | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1911-1926 | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1911-1926 | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |
| Born 1927-1942 | This cohort | 1972-1978 | 18.7 | 16.5 | 21.0 | 1,324 |
| Born 1927-1942 | This cohort | 1980-1988 | 18.3 | 16.2 | 20.5 | 1,276 |
| Born 1927-1942 | This cohort | 1990-1998 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 19.0 | 1,174 |
| Born 1927-1942 | This cohort | 2000-2008 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 15.5 | 678 |
| Born 1927-1942 | This cohort | 2012-2016 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 797 |
| Born 1927-1942 | This cohort | 2020-2024 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 13.7 | 625 |
| Born 1927-1942 | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1927-1942 | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1927-1942 | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1927-1942 | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1927-1942 | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1927-1942 | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |
| Born 1943-1958 | This cohort | 1972-1978 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 19.6 | 1,702 |
| Born 1943-1958 | This cohort | 1980-1988 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 19.1 | 2,279 |
| Born 1943-1958 | This cohort | 1990-1998 | 15.1 | 13.5 | 16.7 | 2,120 |
| Born 1943-1958 | This cohort | 2000-2008 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 15.8 | 1,263 |
| Born 1943-1958 | This cohort | 2012-2016 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 2,392 |
| Born 1943-1958 | This cohort | 2020-2024 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 2,910 |
| Born 1943-1958 | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1943-1958 | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1943-1958 | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1943-1958 | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1943-1958 | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1943-1958 | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |
| Born 1959-1974 | This cohort | 1980-1988 | 21.4 | 18.8 | 24.3 | 863 |
| Born 1959-1974 | This cohort | 1990-1998 | 16.5 | 14.8 | 18.3 | 1,881 |
| Born 1959-1974 | This cohort | 2000-2008 | 12.7 | 10.7 | 15.0 | 1,248 |
| Born 1959-1974 | This cohort | 2012-2016 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 2,037 |
| Born 1959-1974 | This cohort | 2020-2024 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 2,785 |
| Born 1959-1974 | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1959-1974 | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1959-1974 | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1959-1974 | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1959-1974 | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1959-1974 | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |
| Born 1975-1990 | This cohort | 1990-1998 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 17.1 | 153 |
| Born 1975-1990 | This cohort | 2000-2008 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 15.8 | 641 |
| Born 1975-1990 | This cohort | 2012-2016 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 1,758 |
| Born 1975-1990 | This cohort | 2020-2024 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 2,789 |
| Born 1975-1990 | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1975-1990 | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1975-1990 | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1975-1990 | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1975-1990 | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1975-1990 | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |
| Born 1991 or later | This cohort | 2012-2016 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 407 |
| Born 1991 or later | This cohort | 2020-2024 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 1,363 |
| Born 1991 or later | All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| Born 1991 or later | All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| Born 1991 or later | All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| Born 1991 or later | All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| Born 1991 or later | All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| Born 1991 or later | All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |

Note: A cell is plotted only when it has 100 or more placed partisans and an effective sample (the sample size after weighting) of 100 or more, the floor of this chapter, so a line starts and ends where the cohort is well observed. The two oldest cohorts are plotted for only two and four decades.

Note: The pooled 2020s combine 2020 and 2024, and 553 placed partisans with no birth cohort in the file are excluded from the cohort lines. The dashed line uses all placed partisans, including those with no birth cohort.

Note: Two cells below the floor are not plotted: the 1895-1910 cohort in the 1990s (13.1%, 105 respondents) and the 1911-1926 cohort in the 2010s (12.8%, 60 respondents).

Note: The 1927-1942 cohort is at 7.9% in the 2010s and 10.0% in the 2020s, a difference of +2.1 points that is within sampling error.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/cohort_panels.json

### Table 3. The changes for the two oldest cohorts and the 1975 to 1990 cohort include zero, and the other cohorts fell

Change in the cross-pressured share of placed partisans from a cohort's first to its last plotted decade, ANES 1972-2024, with 95% intervals

| Cohort | First plotted decade | Last plotted decade | Change (points) | Interval low | Interval high | Placed partisans in the two cells |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Born 1895-1910 | 1970s | 1980s | −3.3 | −8.5 | +1.9 | 972 |
| Born 1911-1926 | 1970s | 2000s | −1.5 | −7.9 | +4.9 | 1,463 |
| Born 1927-1942 | 1970s | 2020s | −8.7 | −12.6 | −4.7 | 1,949 |
| Born 1943-1958 | 1970s | 2020s | −12.6 | −14.9 | −10.4 | 4,612 |
| Born 1959-1974 | 1980s | 2020s | −14.9 | −17.9 | −11.9 | 3,648 |
| Born 1975-1990 | 1990s | 2020s | −4.9 | −10.5 | +0.6 | 2,942 |
| Born 1991 or later | 2010s | 2020s | −4.9 | −8.6 | −1.1 | 1,770 |

Note: Plotted decades by cohort: Born 1895-1910, 1970s to 1980s; Born 1911-1926, 1970s to 2000s; Born 1927-1942, 1970s to 2020s; Born 1943-1958, 1970s to 2020s; Born 1959-1974, 1980s to 2020s; Born 1975-1990, 1990s to 2020s; Born 1991 or later, 2010s to 2020s.

Note: The 1975-1990 cohort's first plotted cell has 153 placed partisans, close to the floor of 100.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/cohort_changes.json

### Table 4. Freezing cohort rates predicts a 2020s cross-pressured share of 15.1% to 18.3%, against 5.6% observed

Cross-pressured share of placed partisans, observed and under two frozen-rate counterfactuals, ANES survey years pooled by decade, 1972-2024, with 95% bootstrap intervals

| Series | Survey years pooled | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Placed partisans |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Observed | 1972-1978 | 18.5 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,059 |
| Observed | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.3 | 5,808 |
| Observed | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,268 |
| Observed | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,034 |
| Observed | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,451 |
| Observed | 2020-2024 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 10,489 |
| 1970s rates | 1972-1978 | 18.3 | 17.1 | 19.5 | 5,059 |
| 1970s rates | 1980-1988 | 18.2 | 16.9 | 19.4 | 5,808 |
| 1970s rates | 1990-1998 | 18.2 | 17.0 | 19.4 | 6,268 |
| 1970s rates | 2000-2008 | 18.3 | 17.0 | 19.5 | 4,034 |
| 1970s rates | 2012-2016 | 18.3 | 17.0 | 19.4 | 7,451 |
| 1970s rates | 2020-2024 | 18.3 | 17.1 | 19.5 | 10,489 |
| Entry rates | 1972-1978 | 18.3 | 17.1 | 19.5 | 5,059 |
| Entry rates | 1980-1988 | 18.6 | 17.5 | 19.7 | 5,808 |
| Entry rates | 1990-1998 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 20.0 | 6,268 |
| Entry rates | 2000-2008 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 19.1 | 4,034 |
| Entry rates | 2012-2016 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 17.9 | 7,451 |
| Entry rates | 2020-2024 | 15.1 | 13.5 | 16.7 | 10,489 |

Note: Placed partisans with no birth cohort in the file are left out of all three series so that the accounting is exact.

Note: Cohorts not observed with 100 or more placed partisans in the 1970s take the mean 1970s cohort rate of 18.5% in the first counterfactual.

Note: The within-cohort part of the fall is the observed fall minus the mix part, so it includes a baseline residual: the frozen rates applied to the 1970s mix predict a 1970s share 0.2 points (1970s rates) and 0.2 points (entry rates) below the observed one.

Note: The bootstrap re-draws respondents with replacement within each pooled decade many times and re-estimates every quantity each time; the intervals are the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles.

Note: Bands are drawn for the observed and entry-rate lines; the interval of the 1970s-rate line is in the data table. Differences are computed from unrounded values, so a printed difference can differ in the last digit from the difference of the printed shares.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included; intervals from a bootstrap over respondents within pooled decades (1,000 replicates, seed 12345)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/frozen_cohorts.json

### Table 5. The share of the fall due to the mix of cohorts ranges from −0.4% to 74.0% depending on the rates given to later cohorts

Change in the cross-pressured share of placed partisans from the 1970s to the 2020s that the mix of birth cohorts produces under five assumptions about cohort rates, with 95% bootstrap intervals

| Assumption about cohort rates | Change from the mix (points) | 95% interval low (points) | 95% interval high (points) | Share of the fall (%) | 95% interval low (%) | 95% interval high (%) |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Every cohort at its 1970s rate | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −2.2 | 1.4 |
| Every cohort at its entry rate | −3.2 | −5.0 | −1.3 | 25.2 | 10.8 | 38.0 |
| Entry rates, stricter rule for a well-observed cell | −2.8 | −4.4 | −1.1 | 21.4 | 9.0 | 32.6 |
| Entry rates, looser rule for a well-observed cell | −3.3 | −5.1 | −1.4 | 26.0 | 11.6 | 38.9 |
| Cohorts born after 1958 at their own 2020s rates (limiting case) | −9.5 | −10.7 | −8.4 | 74.0 | 70.6 | 77.8 |

Note: The change from the mix is the frozen-rate share in the 2020s minus the frozen-rate share in the 1970s, in percentage points; the share of the fall is that change divided by the observed change. Differences are computed from unrounded values, so a printed difference can differ in the last digit from the difference of the printed shares.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included; intervals from a bootstrap over respondents within pooled decades

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/mix_versions.json

### Table 6. The education gap in the cross-pressured share was 5.4 points in the 1970s, 11.3 in the 1990s and 5.1 in the 2020s

Cross-pressured share of placed partisans by highest education and for all placed partisans (dashed), ANES survey years pooled by decade, 1972-2024, with 95% intervals

| Series | Survey years pooled | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Placed partisans |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| College degree | 1972-1978 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 17.6 | 1,039 |
| College degree | 1980-1988 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 14.4 | 1,448 |
| College degree | 1990-1998 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 1,960 |
| College degree | 2000-2008 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 1,438 |
| College degree | 2012-2016 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 2,953 |
| College degree | 2020-2024 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 5,419 |
| Some college | 1972-1978 | 15.9 | 13.7 | 18.3 | 1,124 |
| Some college | 1980-1988 | 17.8 | 16.0 | 19.8 | 1,616 |
| Some college | 1990-1998 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 16.7 | 1,706 |
| Some college | 2000-2008 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 15.9 | 1,320 |
| Some college | 2012-2016 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 2,518 |
| Some college | 2020-2024 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 3,431 |
| High school or less | 1972-1978 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 22.2 | 2,906 |
| High school or less | 1980-1988 | 21.7 | 20.2 | 23.3 | 2,712 |
| High school or less | 1990-1998 | 21.1 | 19.5 | 22.8 | 2,513 |
| High school or less | 2000-2008 | 18.0 | 15.6 | 20.6 | 1,294 |
| High school or less | 2012-2016 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 15.3 | 2,011 |
| High school or less | 2020-2024 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 1,874 |
| All placed partisans | 1972-1978 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 5,084 |
| All placed partisans | 1980-1988 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 5,826 |
| All placed partisans | 1990-1998 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 6,284 |
| All placed partisans | 2000-2008 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 4,071 |
| All placed partisans | 2012-2016 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 7,562 |
| All placed partisans | 2020-2024 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 10,835 |

Note: Grade school and high school are combined because the grade-school cells fall below the floor of 100 respondents in the 2000s and 2010s.

Note: The pooled 2020s combine 2020 and 2024. The gap is the high school or less share minus the college share. Differences are computed from unrounded values, so a printed difference can differ in the last digit from the difference of the printed shares.

Note: Bands are drawn for the three education groups; the interval of the dashed line is in the data table.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/education_panels.json

### Table 7. Southern and other partisans converged as the Democratic share of conservatives fell from 48.6% to 9.3% in the South and 30.6% to 8.3% elsewhere

Two shares of placed partisans by region (Census South and the rest of the country), ANES survey years pooled by decade, 1972-2024, with 95% intervals

| Measure | Region | Survey years pooled | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Placed partisans |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | South | 1972-1978 | 22.9 | 20.7 | 25.2 | 1,591 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | South | 1980-1988 | 22.6 | 20.7 | 24.6 | 1,813 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | South | 1990-1998 | 18.6 | 16.8 | 20.4 | 2,024 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | South | 2000-2008 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 16.7 | 1,548 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | South | 2012-2016 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 2,847 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | South | 2020-2024 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 3,993 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | Non-South | 1972-1978 | 16.4 | 15.1 | 17.8 | 3,493 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | Non-South | 1980-1988 | 16.4 | 15.3 | 17.6 | 4,013 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | Non-South | 1990-1998 | 15.0 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 4,260 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | Non-South | 2000-2008 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 2,521 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | Non-South | 2012-2016 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 4,715 |
| Cross-pressured, % of placed partisans | Non-South | 2020-2024 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 6,842 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | South | 1972-1978 | 48.6 | 44.5 | 52.8 | 653 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | South | 1980-1988 | 40.9 | 37.6 | 44.4 | 799 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | South | 1990-1998 | 32.4 | 29.4 | 35.7 | 943 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | South | 2000-2008 | 22.7 | 19.3 | 26.5 | 735 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | South | 2012-2016 | 17.2 | 14.8 | 20.0 | 1,291 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | South | 2020-2024 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 1,910 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | Non-South | 1972-1978 | 30.6 | 27.9 | 33.3 | 1,299 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | Non-South | 1980-1988 | 27.5 | 25.4 | 29.7 | 1,705 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | Non-South | 1990-1998 | 26.8 | 24.7 | 29.1 | 1,744 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | Non-South | 2000-2008 | 21.5 | 18.7 | 24.7 | 999 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | Non-South | 2012-2016 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 17.0 | 1,825 |
| Democrats, % of placed conservatives | Non-South | 2020-2024 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 2,583 |

Note: The cumulative file has no region for the 2,049 placed partisans among the 2024 panel and paper cases; their region is the Census region of the sample location in the ANES 2024 Time Series, which reproduces the cumulative-file flag for every 2024 respondent who has both.

Note: Conservatives are placed partisans at points 5 to 7 of the seven-point scale. Differences are computed from unrounded values, so a printed difference can differ in the last digit from the difference of the printed shares.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included; region is the Census South as coded by the ANES, and for the 2024 panel and paper cases the Census region of the sample location in the ANES 2024 Time Series

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/region_panels.json

### Table 8. The fall is 11.4 to 13.3 points under three bases and 6.3 points when unplaced partisans count as not cross-pressured

Cross-pressured share under four bases, ANES study years 1972-2024, with 95% intervals for the Placed line

| Series | Year | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents in the base |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Placed | 1972 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 21.8 | 1,371 |
| Placed | 1974 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 21.3 | 977 |
| Placed | 1976 | 17.8 | 15.8 | 20.0 | 1,306 |
| Placed | 1978 | 18.0 | 16.1 | 20.0 | 1,430 |
| Placed | 1980 | 20.3 | 17.8 | 23.1 | 892 |
| Placed | 1982 | 18.1 | 15.6 | 20.9 | 806 |
| Placed | 1984 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 19.0 | 1,401 |
| Placed | 1986 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 20.5 | 1,441 |
| Placed | 1988 | 18.6 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 1,286 |
| Placed | 1990 | 19.7 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 1,220 |
| Placed | 1992 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 18.8 | 1,630 |
| Placed | 1994 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 1,279 |
| Placed | 1996 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 16.9 | 1,233 |
| Placed | 1998 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 18.3 | 922 |
| Placed | 2000 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 19.5 | 603 |
| Placed | 2002 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 17.5 | 1,171 |
| Placed | 2004 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 849 |
| Placed | 2008 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 1,448 |
| Placed | 2012 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 4,613 |
| Placed | 2016 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2,949 |
| Placed | 2020 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6,353 |
| Placed | 2024 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 4,482 |
| Reweighted | 1972 | 19.9 | 17.8 | 22.2 | 1,365 |
| Reweighted | 1974 | 19.5 | 16.7 | 22.6 | 958 |
| Reweighted | 1976 | 19.0 | 16.8 | 21.4 | 1,290 |
| Reweighted | 1978 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 20.9 | 1,420 |
| Reweighted | 1980 | 21.4 | 18.7 | 24.4 | 888 |
| Reweighted | 1982 | 20.6 | 17.7 | 23.8 | 803 |
| Reweighted | 1984 | 18.4 | 16.4 | 20.6 | 1,381 |
| Reweighted | 1986 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 21.0 | 1,426 |
| Reweighted | 1988 | 19.9 | 17.7 | 22.3 | 1,254 |
| Reweighted | 1990 | 20.7 | 18.4 | 23.2 | 1,197 |
| Reweighted | 1992 | 18.2 | 16.3 | 20.2 | 1,582 |
| Reweighted | 1994 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 17.8 | 1,217 |
| Reweighted | 1996 | 15.9 | 13.6 | 18.4 | 1,224 |
| Reweighted | 1998 | 17.4 | 14.7 | 20.4 | 901 |
| Reweighted | 2000 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 23.0 | 596 |
| Reweighted | 2002 | 16.0 | 13.4 | 18.9 | 1,152 |
| Reweighted | 2004 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 15.9 | 843 |
| Reweighted | 2008 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 15.3 | 1,402 |
| Reweighted | 2012 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 4,507 |
| Reweighted | 2016 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 2,846 |
| Reweighted | 2020 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6,036 |
| Reweighted | 2024 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 4,207 |
| With independents | 1972 | 17.4 | 15.6 | 19.4 | 1,545 |
| With independents | 1974 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 18.1 | 1,140 |
| With independents | 1976 | 15.4 | 13.7 | 17.4 | 1,497 |
| With independents | 1978 | 15.5 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 1,658 |
| With independents | 1980 | 18.0 | 15.8 | 20.5 | 1,004 |
| With independents | 1982 | 16.4 | 14.1 | 19.0 | 891 |
| With independents | 1984 | 15.4 | 13.7 | 17.3 | 1,546 |
| With independents | 1986 | 16.4 | 14.7 | 18.3 | 1,622 |
| With independents | 1988 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 18.9 | 1,419 |
| With independents | 1990 | 18.3 | 16.3 | 20.4 | 1,315 |
| With independents | 1992 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 16.9 | 1,819 |
| With independents | 1994 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 1,398 |
| With independents | 1996 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 15.7 | 1,326 |
| With independents | 1998 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 16.7 | 1,012 |
| With independents | 2000 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 17.6 | 669 |
| With independents | 2002 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 16.8 | 1,223 |
| With independents | 2004 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 13.1 | 913 |
| With independents | 2008 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 1,607 |
| With independents | 2012 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 5,288 |
| With independents | 2016 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 3,298 |
| With independents | 2020 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 7,041 |
| With independents | 2024 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4,716 |
| All partisans | 1972 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 2,295 |
| All partisans | 1974 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 15.9 | 1,305 |
| All partisans | 1976 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 13.9 | 1,879 |
| All partisans | 1978 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 1,898 |
| All partisans | 1980 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 15.1 | 1,369 |
| All partisans | 1982 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 13.9 | 1,220 |
| All partisans | 1984 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 13.7 | 1,948 |
| All partisans | 1986 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 15.9 | 1,863 |
| All partisans | 1988 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 15.1 | 1,783 |
| All partisans | 1990 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 15.6 | 1,729 |
| All partisans | 1992 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 2,155 |
| All partisans | 1994 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 1,589 |
| All partisans | 1996 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 13.1 | 1,549 |
| All partisans | 1998 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 14.7 | 1,124 |
| All partisans | 2000 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1,568 |
| All partisans | 2002 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 14.4 | 1,372 |
| All partisans | 2004 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 1,074 |
| All partisans | 2008 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 2,018 |
| All partisans | 2012 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 5,098 |
| All partisans | 2016 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 3,668 |
| All partisans | 2020 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 7,277 |
| All partisans | 2024 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 5,103 |

Note: The share of partisans who place themselves was 59.7% in 1972, 35.6% in 2000, 84.9% in 2020 and 85.8% in 2024.

Note: The All partisans line has no value for 2000: 52.1% of the 2000 respondents have no recorded answer to the item, so the share of partisans who place themselves reflects the design of that study and not the partisans.

Note: With no assumption about the unplaced, the 1972 share lies between 11.7% and 52.0% and the 2024 share between 5.4% and 19.6%.

Note: Intervals for the reweighted series use the effective sample size of the adjusted weights and ignore the estimation of the adjustment factors.

Note: Bands are drawn for the Placed line only; the intervals of the other lines are in the data table.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024; weighted (VCF0009z); placed partisans, leaners included; the reweighted series adjusts the weights within each year

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/denominators.json

### Table 9. From 2008 to 2016 the ANES cross-pressured share fell while the CES share rose

Cross-pressured share of placed partisans in the ANES (seven-point ideology scale) and the CES (five-point scale, even-year waves), 2004-2024, with 95% intervals

| Series | Year | Share (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Placed partisans |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| ANES | 2004 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 849 |
| ANES | 2008 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 1,448 |
| ANES | 2012 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 4,613 |
| ANES | 2016 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2,949 |
| ANES | 2020 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6,353 |
| ANES | 2024 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 4,482 |
| CES | 2006 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 30,222 |
| CES | 2008 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 27,354 |
| CES | 2010 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 46,430 |
| CES | 2012 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 43,847 |
| CES | 2014 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 42,901 |
| CES | 2016 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 50,082 |
| CES | 2018 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 47,245 |
| CES | 2020 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 48,071 |
| CES | 2022 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 47,741 |
| CES | 2024 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 49,320 |

Note: The CES is an opt-in online sample. Its intervals are narrow because it samples tens of thousands of respondents each wave; like the ANES intervals they are model based and do not reflect selection into the sample.

Note: Only the even-year CES waves are plotted. The CES also fields smaller odd-year waves, which are left out. The ANES line before 2004 is in the first figure of the chapter.

Note: CES partisans are pid7 points 1 to 3 and 5 to 7; conservatives are the two conservative points of the five-point scale and 'not sure' counts as not placed.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024, and Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, 2006-2024; weighted (VCF0009z in the ANES, the survey weight in each CES wave); placed partisans, leaners included

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/two_surveys.json

### Table 10. The CES share is above or below the ANES share depending on how the seven-point scale is mapped to the five-point one

Ratio of the CES cross-pressured share to the ANES share in the five shared study years under two mappings of the ANES scale, with 95% intervals; a ratio of one means equal shares

| Year | ANES points counted | ANES share (%) | CES share (%) | CES over ANES | 95% interval low | 95% interval high | ANES respondents | CES respondents |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2008 | Three points each side | 11.3 | 5.5 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.59 | 1,448 | 27,354 |
| 2008 | Two outer points each side | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1.22 | 0.90 | 1.64 | 1,448 | 27,354 |
| 2012 | Three points each side | 9.8 | 7.0 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.81 | 4,613 | 43,847 |
| 2012 | Two outer points each side | 3.9 | 7.0 | 1.80 | 1.47 | 2.19 | 4,613 | 43,847 |
| 2016 | Three points each side | 7.2 | 8.4 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 2,949 | 50,082 |
| 2016 | Two outer points each side | 2.6 | 8.4 | 3.23 | 2.48 | 4.22 | 2,949 | 50,082 |
| 2020 | Three points each side | 5.2 | 5.3 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 1.20 | 6,353 | 48,071 |
| 2020 | Two outer points each side | 1.9 | 5.3 | 2.83 | 2.22 | 3.61 | 6,353 | 48,071 |
| 2024 | Three points each side | 6.3 | 3.7 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 4,482 | 49,320 |
| 2024 | Two outer points each side | 2.6 | 3.7 | 1.41 | 1.07 | 1.85 | 4,482 | 49,320 |

Note: The CES asks a five-point item, so no mapping of the seven-point ANES item to it is correct by construction. The two shown are two natural readings of liberal and conservative on the seven-point scale.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1972-2024, and Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, 2006-2024; weighted (VCF0009z in the ANES, the survey weight in each CES wave); placed partisans, leaners included; intervals by the delta method

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/survey_ratio.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (139), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| adj_1972 | 19.9% | percent of placed partisans | cross-pressured share re-weighted to the party, education, age group and race mix of all partisans in the year (95% Wilson interval on the Kish effective n of the adjusted weights) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 | 95% CI 17.8% to 22.2% | 1,365 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| adj_2024 | 6.9% | percent of placed partisans | cross-pressured share re-weighted to the party, education, age group and race mix of all partisans in the year (95% Wilson interval on the Kish effective n of the adjusted weights) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 | 95% CI 5.8% to 8.1% | 4,207 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| adj_fall | 13.0 | percentage points | fall in the cross-pressured share re-weighted to the party, education, age group and race mix of all partisans, 2024 minus 1972 (sign dropped) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 to 2024 | 95% CI 10.5 to 15.5 | 5,572 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| allp_1972 | 11.7% | percent of partisans | cross-pressured partisans as a share of all partisans, unplaced partisans counted as not cross-pressured (lower bound; 95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 1972 | 95% CI 10.5% to 13.1% | 2,295 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| allp_2024 | 5.4% | percent of partisans | cross-pressured partisans as a share of all partisans, unplaced partisans counted as not cross-pressured (lower bound; 95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2024 | 95% CI 4.6% to 6.4% | 5,103 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| allp_fall | 6.3 | percentage points | fall in the cross-pressured share of all partisans (unplaced counted as not cross-pressured), 2024 minus 1972 (sign dropped) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 1972 to 2024 | 95% CI 4.7 to 7.9 | 7,398 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| anes_chg_0816 | 4.1 | percentage points | change in the ANES cross-pressured share, 2016 minus 2008 (sign dropped) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2008 to 2016 | 95% CI 1.8 to 6.4 | 4,397 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| anes_chg_0824 | 4.9 | percentage points | change in the ANES cross-pressured share, 2024 minus 2008 (sign dropped) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.7 to 7.2 | 5,930 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| avg70 | 18.5% | percent of placed partisans | unweighted mean of the 1970s rates of the four cohorts with 100 or more placed partisans, used for cohorts not observed then | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 pooled |   | 5,059 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1927_2010 | 7.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1927 to 1942 | 2012-2016 pooled | 95% CI 5.8% to 10.7% | 797 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1927_2020 | 10.0% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1927 to 1942 | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 7.3% to 13.7% | 625 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1943_1970 | 17.6% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1943 to 1958 | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 15.7% to 19.6% | 1,702 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1943_2010 | 8.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1943 to 1958 | 2012-2016 pooled | 95% CI 7.5% to 10.5% | 2,392 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1943_2020 | 5.0% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1943 to 1958 | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 4.0% to 6.1% | 2,910 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1959_1980 | 21.4% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1959 to 1974 | 1980-1988 pooled | 95% CI 18.8% to 24.3% | 863 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1975_1990 | 10.4% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1975 to 1990 | 1990-1998 pooled | 95% CI 6.2% to 17.1% | 153 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| c1991_2010 | 8.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the birth cohort and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1991 or later | 2012-2016 pooled | 95% CI 6.0% to 13.0% | 407 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1895 | −3.3 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1895 to 1910 | 1972-1978 to 1980-1988 | 95% CI −8.5 to 1.9 | 972 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1911 | −1.5 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1911 to 1926 | 1972-1978 to 2000-2008 | 95% CI −7.9 to 4.9 | 1,463 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1927 | −8.7 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1927 to 1942 | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −12.6 to −4.7 | 1,949 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1927_last | +2.1 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share between the last two plotted pooled periods | placed partisans born 1927 to 1942 | 2012-2016 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −2.0 to 6.1 | 1,422 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1943 | −12.6 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1943 to 1958 | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −14.9 to −10.4 | 4,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1959 | −14.9 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1959 to 1974 | 1980-1988 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −17.9 to −11.9 | 3,648 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1975 | −4.9 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1975 to 1990 | 1990-1998 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −10.5 to 0.6 | 2,942 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1991 | −4.9 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period | placed partisans born 1991 or later | 2012-2016 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −8.6 to −1.1 | 1,770 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cchg_1991_deff | −4.9 | percentage points | change in the cross-pressured share from the cohort's first to its last plotted pooled period, with the 95% interval widened by the factor sqrt(2) that a design effect of 2 implies | placed partisans born 1991 or later | 2012-2016 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −10.1 to 0.4 | 1,770 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ces_2006 | 4.3% | percent of placed CES partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans on the five-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | CES respondents who identify with a party (leaners included) and place themselves on the five-point ideology scale | 2006 | 95% CI 4.0% to 4.5% | 30,222 | weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_2016 | 8.4% | percent of placed CES partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans on the five-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | CES respondents who identify with a party (leaners included) and place themselves on the five-point ideology scale | 2016 | 95% CI 8.1% to 8.8% | 50,082 | weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_2024 | 3.7% | percent of placed CES partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans on the five-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | CES respondents who identify with a party (leaners included) and place themselves on the five-point ideology scale | 2024 | 95% CI 3.4% to 4.0% | 49,320 | weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_chg_0816 | 3.0 | percentage points | change in the CES cross-pressured share, 2016 minus 2008 (a rise) | CES respondents who identify with a party (leaners included) and place themselves on the five-point ideology scale | 2008 to 2016 | 95% CI 2.5 to 3.4 | 77,436 | weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study | Size of the rise. |
| ces_chg_0824 | 1.8 | percentage points | change in the CES cross-pressured share, 2024 minus 2008 (sign dropped) | CES respondents who identify with a party (leaners included) and place themselves on the five-point ideology scale | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.4 to 2.2 | 76,674 | weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| cfa_2020 | 18.3% | percent of placed partisans | cross-pressured share with every cohort held at its 1970s rate, bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 17.1% to 19.5% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cfb_2020 | 15.1% | percent of placed partisans | cross-pressured share with every cohort held at its entry rate, bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 13.5% to 16.7% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| comp_a | +0.1 | percentage points | change in the share from the cohort mix alone, cohorts frozen at 1970s rates; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −0.2 to 0.3 | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| comp_b | 3.2 | percentage points | fall in the share from the cohort mix alone, cohorts frozen at entry rates (sign dropped); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 1.3 to 5.0 | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| consdem_1972 | 24.6% | percent of placed Democrats | weighted share of placed Democrats who are conservative (95% Wilson interval) | placed Democrats (leaners included) | 1972 | 95% CI 21.7% to 27.8% | 776 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| consdem_2024 | 8.2% | percent of placed Democrats | weighted share of placed Democrats who are conservative (95% Wilson interval) | placed Democrats (leaners included) | 2024 | 95% CI 6.7% to 10.0% | 2,310 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| consdem_ratio | 0.33 | ratio of the 2024 share to the 1972 share | conservative share of placed Democrats in 2024 divided by the same share in 1972, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed Democrats (leaners included) | 2024 over 1972 | 95% CI 0.26 to 0.42 | 3,086 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_1972 | 19.6% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 | 95% CI 17.6% to 21.8% | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_1990 | 19.7% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1990 | 95% CI 17.5% to 22.0% | 1,220 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_2004 | 11.5% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2004 | 95% CI 9.4% to 14.0% | 849 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_2020 | 5.2% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2020 | 95% CI 4.5% to 5.9% | 6,353 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_2024 | 6.3% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 | 95% CI 5.4% to 7.4% | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_2024_ftf | 7.2% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured in the face-to-face sample (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans interviewed in 2024 by face-to-face | 2024 | 95% CI 5.1% to 10.1% | 834 | weight_ftf (mode-specific ANES weight) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_2024_other | 7.1% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured among the 2024 cases with no mode weight (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans interviewed in 2024 who are in neither the face-to-face nor the web sample (panel and paper cases) | 2024 | 95% CI 5.7% to 8.8% | 2,049 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cross_2024_web | 4.6% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured in the web sample (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans interviewed in 2024 by web | 2024 | 95% CI 3.4% to 6.1% | 1,599 | weight_web (mode-specific ANES weight) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| decline_cf | 12.8 | percentage points | fall in the observed share (sign dropped); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 11.5 to 14.2 | 15,548 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| deff | 2 | ratio of variances | assumed ratio of the true sampling variance to the model-based variance, used only to show which verdicts are close to zero | illustrative design effect | all periods |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deff_width | 41% | percent | percent by which every half-width of an interval grows when the sampling variance is multiplied by the assumed design effect | illustrative design effect | all periods |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dk_2000 | 22.3% | percent of respondents with a recorded answer (unweighted) | share of respondents with a recorded answer who chose don't know | 2000 ANES respondents with a recorded answer to the item | 2000 |   | 866 | none (unweighted counts of respondents) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dk_other_max | 24.0% | percent of respondents with a recorded answer (unweighted) | highest yearly share who chose don't know among respondents with a recorded answer | ANES respondents with a recorded answer in 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2004 | 1996, 1998, 2002, 2004 |   | 5,700 | none (unweighted counts of respondents) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dk_other_min | 16.8% | percent of respondents with a recorded answer (unweighted) | lowest yearly share who chose don't know among respondents with a recorded answer | ANES respondents with a recorded answer in 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2004 | 1996, 1998, 2002, 2004 |   | 5,700 | none (unweighted counts of respondents) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_col_1970 | 15.1% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the education group and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with college degree | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 12.9% to 17.6% | 1,039 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_col_2000 | 6.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the education group and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with college degree | 2000-2008 pooled | 95% CI 5.5% to 8.7% | 1,438 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_col_2020 | 3.6% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the education group and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with college degree | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 3.0% to 4.3% | 5,419 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_fall | 12.7 | percentage points | observed fall in the cross-pressured share (sign dropped); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within the two pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known education level | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 11.4 to 13.9 | 15,793 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| edu_gap_1970 | 5.4 | percentage points | cross-pressured share of partisans with a high school education or less minus that of college graduates | placed partisans with a high school education or less, and college graduates | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 2.6 to 8.3 | 3,945 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_gap_1990 | 11.3 | percentage points | cross-pressured share of partisans with a high school education or less minus that of college graduates | placed partisans with a high school education or less, and college graduates | 1990-1998 pooled | 95% CI 9.2 to 13.5 | 4,473 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_gap_2000 | 11.0 | percentage points | cross-pressured share of partisans with a high school education or less minus that of college graduates | placed partisans with a high school education or less, and college graduates | 2000-2008 pooled | 95% CI 8.1 to 14.0 | 2,732 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_gap_2020 | 5.1 | percentage points | cross-pressured share of partisans with a high school education or less minus that of college graduates | placed partisans with a high school education or less, and college graduates | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 3.4 to 6.9 | 7,293 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_hs_2000 | 18.0% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the education group and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with high school or less | 2000-2008 pooled | 95% CI 15.6% to 20.6% | 1,294 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_hs_2020 | 8.7% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the education group and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with high school or less | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 7.2% to 10.5% | 1,874 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_mix | 1.3 | percentage points | cross-pressured share at the 1970s education mix minus the observed 2020s share, 2020s group rates; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within the two pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known education level | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.9 to 1.8 | 10,724 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_mix_share | 10.3% | percent of the fall | education-mix effect as a share of the observed fall; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within the two pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known education level | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 6.6% to 15.1% | 15,793 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_obs_2020 | 5.7% | percent of placed partisans | observed cross-pressured share; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within the two pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known education level | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 5.1% to 6.4% | 10,724 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_share_1970 | 20.6% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share with a college degree (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with a known education level | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 19.4% to 21.8% | 5,069 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_share_2020 | 41.3% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share with a college degree (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans with a known education level | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 40.0% to 42.6% | 10,724 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| edu_std_2020 | 7.0% | percent of placed partisans | cross-pressured share with the 2020s rates of the three education groups and the 1970s education mix; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within the two pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known education level | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 6.1% to 8.1% | 10,724 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| fall_7224 | 13.3 | percentage points | fall in the cross-pressured share, 2024 minus 1972 (sign dropped) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 to 2024 | 95% CI 10.9 to 15.6 | 5,853 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| flat_high | 20.3% | percent of placed partisans | highest yearly cross-pressured share from 1972 to 1990 | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1980 | 95% CI 17.8% to 23.1% | 892 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| flat_low | 17.0% | percent of placed partisans | lowest yearly cross-pressured share from 1972 to 1990 | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1984 | 95% CI 15.1% to 19.0% | 1,401 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| floor_n | 100 | respondents (and Kish effective sample size) | minimum number of placed partisans, and minimum effective sample size, for a subgroup cell to be shown | cells of the figures and tables | all periods |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ind_1972 | 17.4% | percent of respondents with a party identification and an ideology placement | cross-pressured partisans as a share of everyone who reports a party identification and places themselves, independents in the denominator (95% Wilson interval) | respondents with a party identification and an ideology placement | 1972 | 95% CI 15.6% to 19.4% | 1,545 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ind_2024 | 6.0% | percent of respondents with a party identification and an ideology placement | cross-pressured partisans as a share of everyone who reports a party identification and places themselves, independents in the denominator (95% Wilson interval) | respondents with a party identification and an ideology placement | 2024 | 95% CI 5.1% to 7.1% | 4,716 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ind_fall | 11.4 | percentage points | fall in the cross-pressured share with pure independents in the denominator, 2024 minus 1972 (sign dropped) | respondents with a party identification and an ideology placement | 1972 to 2024 | 95% CI 9.2 to 13.5 | 6,261 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the fall; the change is negative. |
| librep_1972 | 13.1% | percent of placed Republicans | weighted share of placed Republicans who are liberal (95% Wilson interval) | placed Republicans (leaners included) | 1972 | 95% CI 10.6% to 16.1% | 595 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| librep_2024 | 4.4% | percent of placed Republicans | weighted share of placed Republicans who are liberal (95% Wilson interval) | placed Republicans (leaners included) | 2024 | 95% CI 3.3% to 5.8% | 2,172 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| librep_ratio | 0.33 | ratio of the 2024 share to the 1972 share | liberal share of placed Republicans in 2024 divided by the same share in 1972, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed Republicans (leaners included) | 2024 over 1972 | 95% CI 0.23 to 0.47 | 2,767 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| moderate_1972 | 36.8% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who place themselves at the midpoint of the scale (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 | 95% CI 34.2% to 39.3% | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| moderate_2024 | 24.4% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who place themselves at the midpoint of the scale (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 | 95% CI 22.6% to 26.2% | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mort_ratio | 0.24 | ratio of survival odds | odds ratio of the cross-pressured share (2020s over 1970s), read as the survival of the cross-pressured relative to other partisans if the fall were all differential loss | placed partisans born 1943 to 1958 | 1972-1978 versus 2020-2024 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.32 | 4,612 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_2000 | 603 | respondents | count of placed partisans in the smallest study year | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2000 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_c1975_1990 | 153 | respondents | count of placed partisans in the first plotted cell of the cohort | placed partisans born 1975 to 1990 | 1990-1998 pooled |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_missing_cohort | 553 | respondents | count | placed partisans with no birth cohort in the file | 1972-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_other_2024 | 2,049 | respondents | count of 2024 placed partisans with no mode weight; the same respondents have no region in the cumulative file | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_placed | 39,662 | respondents | count of placed partisans over all study years | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_sub_1895_1990 | 105 | respondents | count of placed partisans in a cell below the floor, not plotted | placed partisans born 1895 to 1910 | 1990-1998 pooled |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_sub_1911_2010 | 60 | respondents | count of placed partisans in a cell below the floor, not plotted | placed partisans born 1911 to 1926 | 2012-2016 pooled |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_years | 22 | survey years | count of study years with placed partisans | ANES study years that carry the seven-point ideology item | 1972-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| noanswer_2000 | 52.1% | percent of respondents (unweighted) | share of respondents with no recorded answer to the seven-point liberal-conservative item | all 2000 ANES respondents | 2000 |   | 1,807 | none (unweighted counts of respondents) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| noanswer_other_max | 0.9% | percent of respondents (unweighted) | highest share of respondents with no recorded answer to the item in the four neighboring study years | ANES respondents in 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2004 | 1996, 1998, 2002, 2004 |   | 5,718 | none (unweighted counts of respondents) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| non_cross_1970 | 16.4% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the region and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans outside the Census South | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 15.1% to 17.8% | 3,493 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| non_cross_2020 | 4.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the region and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans outside the Census South | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 4.2% to 5.6% | 6,842 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| non_dem_1970 | 30.6% | percent of placed conservative partisans | weighted share of placed conservative partisans who are Democrats (95% Wilson interval) | placed conservative partisans outside the Census South | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 27.9% to 33.3% | 1,299 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| non_dem_2020 | 8.3% | percent of placed conservative partisans | weighted share of placed conservative partisans who are Democrats (95% Wilson interval) | placed conservative partisans outside the Census South | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 7.0% to 9.9% | 2,583 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| obs_1970 | 18.5% | percent of placed partisans | observed cross-pressured share, bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 17.3% to 19.6% | 5,059 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| obs_2020 | 5.6% | percent of placed partisans | observed cross-pressured share, bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 5.0% to 6.3% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_1972 | 59.7% | percent of partisans | weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 1972 | 95% CI 57.7% to 61.7% | 2,295 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_2000 | 35.6% | percent of partisans | weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2000 | 95% CI 33.1% to 38.3% | 1,568 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_2020 | 84.9% | percent of partisans | weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2020 | 95% CI 83.8% to 86.0% | 7,277 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_2024 | 85.8% | percent of partisans | weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale (95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2024 | 95% CI 84.3% to 87.1% | 5,103 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_early_max | 81.2% | percent of partisans | highest yearly placement rate (weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 1974 to 2008 except 2000 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_early_min | 65.2% | percent of partisans | lowest yearly placement rate (weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 1974 to 2008 except 2000 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_late_max | 92.5% | percent of partisans | highest yearly placement rate (weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2012 to 2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| placed_late_min | 77.1% | percent of partisans | lowest yearly placement rate (weighted share who place themselves on the seven-point scale) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2012 to 2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ratio_b_2008 | 0.49 | ratio of the CES share to the ANES share | CES cross-pressured share divided by the ANES share, ANES conservatives and liberals defined as points 1-3 and 5-7 of the seven-point scale, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed partisans in each survey | 2008 | 95% CI 0.40 to 0.59 | 28,802 | weight (VCF0009z); weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ratio_b_2016 | 1.17 | ratio of the CES share to the ANES share | CES cross-pressured share divided by the ANES share, ANES conservatives and liberals defined as points 1-3 and 5-7 of the seven-point scale, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed partisans in each survey | 2016 | 95% CI 1.00 to 1.38 | 53,031 | weight (VCF0009z); weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ratio_b_2024 | 0.58 | ratio of the CES share to the ANES share | CES cross-pressured share divided by the ANES share, ANES conservatives and liberals defined as points 1-3 and 5-7 of the seven-point scale, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed partisans in each survey | 2024 | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.70 | 53,802 | weight (VCF0009z); weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ratio_s_2008 | 1.22 | ratio of the CES share to the ANES share | CES cross-pressured share divided by the ANES share, ANES conservatives and liberals defined as points 1-2 and 6-7 of the seven-point scale, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed partisans in each survey | 2008 | 95% CI 0.90 to 1.64 | 28,802 | weight (VCF0009z); weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ratio_s_2016 | 3.23 | ratio of the CES share to the ANES share | CES cross-pressured share divided by the ANES share, ANES conservatives and liberals defined as points 1-2 and 6-7 of the seven-point scale, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed partisans in each survey | 2016 | 95% CI 2.48 to 4.22 | 53,031 | weight (VCF0009z); weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ratio_s_2024 | 1.41 | ratio of the CES share to the ANES share | CES cross-pressured share divided by the ANES share, ANES conservatives and liberals defined as points 1-2 and 6-7 of the seven-point scale, 95% interval by the delta method (normal-theory standard errors) | placed partisans in each survey | 2024 | 95% CI 1.07 to 1.85 | 53,802 | weight (VCF0009z); weight (one wave; the cumulative weight gives the same within-year shares) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| reg_dem_gap_1970 | 18.1 | percentage points | Democratic share of placed conservatives in the South minus that outside the South | placed conservative partisans | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 13.1 to 23.0 | 1,952 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| reg_dem_gap_2020 | 1.0 | percentage points | Democratic share of placed conservatives in the South minus that outside the South | placed conservative partisans | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI −1.3 to 3.3 | 4,493 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| reg_gap_1970 | 6.5 | percentage points | cross-pressured share in the South minus that outside the South | placed partisans | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 3.9 to 9.1 | 5,084 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| reg_gap_2020 | 2.0 | percentage points | cross-pressured share in the South minus that outside the South | placed partisans | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 0.7 to 3.3 | 10,835 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| resid_a | 0.2 | percentage points | observed 1970s share minus the share that the cohort mix of the 1970s gives at the fixed cohort rates, cohorts frozen at 1970s rates; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 0.0 to 0.4 | 5,059 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the baseline residual; the frozen rates predict a 1970s share below the observed one. |
| resid_b | 0.2 | percentage points | observed 1970s share minus the share that the cohort mix of the 1970s gives at the fixed cohort rates, cohorts frozen at entry rates; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI −0.1 to 0.4 | 5,059 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the baseline residual; the frozen rates predict a 1970s share below the observed one. |
| share_2024_other | 45.7% | percent of placed partisans (unweighted count) | share of the 2024 placed partisans with no mode weight (panel and paper cases) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 |   | 4,482 | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_a | −0.4% | percent of the fall | cohort-mix change with cohorts frozen at 1970s rates as a share of the observed fall (negative when the mix alone raises the share); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI −2.2% to 1.4% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_b | 25.2% | percent of the fall | cohort-mix change with cohorts frozen at entry rates as a share of the observed fall; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 10.8% to 38.0% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_bl | 26.0% | percent of the fall | cohort-mix change as a share of the observed fall, cohorts frozen at entry rates with a looser rule for a well-observed cell (50 placed partisans and an effective sample of 50); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 11.6% to 38.9% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_bs | 21.4% | percent of the fall | cohort-mix change as a share of the observed fall, cohorts frozen at entry rates with a stricter rule for a well-observed cell (200 placed partisans and an effective sample of 150); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 9.0% to 32.6% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_c | 74.0% | percent of the fall | cohort-mix change as a share of the observed fall, with the cohorts born after 1958 held at their own 2020s rates instead of their entry rates; bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 70.6% to 77.8% | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_new_2020 | 73.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share of placed partisans born after 1958 | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 2020-2024 pooled |   | 10,489 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| share_old_1970 | 38.5% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share of placed partisans born before 1927 | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 pooled |   | 5,059 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sorted_1972 | 43.6% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 1972 | 95% CI 41.0% to 46.3% | 1,371 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sorted_2024 | 69.3% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share who are liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 | 95% CI 67.3% to 71.2% | 4,482 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| south_cross_1970 | 22.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the region and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans in the Census South | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 20.7% to 25.2% | 1,591 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| south_cross_2020 | 6.9% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured within the region and pooled period (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans in the Census South | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 5.9% to 8.1% | 3,993 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| south_dem_1970 | 48.6% | percent of placed conservative partisans | weighted share of placed conservative partisans who are Democrats (95% Wilson interval) | placed conservative partisans in the Census South | 1972-1978 pooled | 95% CI 44.5% to 52.8% | 653 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| south_dem_2020 | 9.3% | percent of placed conservative partisans | weighted share of placed conservative partisans who are Democrats (95% Wilson interval) | placed conservative partisans in the Census South | 2020-2024 pooled | 95% CI 7.7% to 11.2% | 1,910 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sub_1895_1990 | 13.1% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured in a cell below the floor of 100 placed partisans and an effective sample of 100, not plotted (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1895 to 1910 | 1990-1998 pooled | 95% CI 7.8% to 21.2% | 105 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Below the chapter's floor; reported only to show that the cell gives no support for a level line. |
| sub_1911_2010 | 12.8% | percent of placed partisans | weighted share cross-pressured in a cell below the floor of 100 placed partisans and an effective sample of 100, not plotted (95% Wilson interval) | placed partisans born 1911 to 1926 | 2012-2016 pooled | 95% CI 5.5% to 27.0% | 60 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Below the chapter's floor; reported only to show that the cell gives no support for a level line. |
| ub_1972 | 52.0% | percent of partisans | cross-pressured or unplaced partisans as a share of all partisans, unplaced partisans counted as cross-pressured (upper bound; 95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 1972 | 95% CI 49.9% to 54.0% | 2,295 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ub_2024 | 19.6% | percent of partisans | cross-pressured or unplaced partisans as a share of all partisans, unplaced partisans counted as cross-pressured (upper bound; 95% Wilson interval) | partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included) | 2024 | 95% CI 18.1% to 21.3% | 5,103 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| uptick_diff | +1.2 | percentage points | difference in the cross-pressured share between 2024 and 2020 (independent samples, normal-theory interval) | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 minus 2020 | 95% CI −0.1 to 2.4 | 10,835 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| uptick_hi | 2.4 | percentage points | upper end of the 95% interval of the difference in the cross-pressured share between 2024 and 2020 | placed partisans (Democrats and Republicans, leaners included, who place themselves on the seven-point ideology scale) | 2024 minus 2020 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| within_a | 12.9 | percentage points | observed fall minus the cohort-mix part, cohorts frozen at 1970s rates (sign dropped); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 11.5 to 14.3 | 15,548 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the within-cohort part; the parts sum to the observed fall. |
| within_b | 9.6 | percentage points | observed fall minus the cohort-mix part, cohorts frozen at entry rates (sign dropped); bootstrap 95% percentile interval (1,000 replicates over respondents within pooled periods, seed 12345) | placed partisans with a known birth cohort | 1972-1978 to 2020-2024 | 95% CI 7.9 to 11.4 | 15,548 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | Size of the within-cohort part; the parts sum to the observed fall. |

## Definitions

- Cohort: People born in the same period, such as the same decade. Comparing cohorts shows whether a difference comes from when people were born, as distinct from their age or the year they were surveyed.
- Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.
- Party sorting: The alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits.
- Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
- Confidence interval: A range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.
- Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
- Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
- Survey mode: How respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.
- Clustered standard errors: Standard errors that allow answers within the same group, such as the same county or the same week, to be related. They are wider than ordinary errors when members of a group resemble each other.

## Methods

Sample: 50,884 Democrats and Republicans (leaners counted with the party they lean toward: pid_7pt 1 to 3 and 5 to 7) interviewed in the 22 ANES study years from 1972 to 2024 that carry the seven-point liberal-conservative item; 39,662 of them place themselves on the scale and are the placed partisans on whom every share is based. Coding fixed in advance from the item wording (1 = liberal, 7 = conservative): liberal 1 to 3, moderate 4, conservative 5 to 7. Cross-pressured means a conservative Democrat or a liberal Republican; fully sorted means a liberal Democrat or a conservative Republican. Decades pool study years (1972-1978, 1980-1988, 1990-1998, 2000-2008, 2012-2016, 2020-2024) and are plotted at the midpoint of the years pooled. Birth cohort is the ANES cohort variable; it is missing for 553 placed partisans, who are left out of the cohort lines and of the accounting exercise. Education has three levels (high school or less, some college, college degree). Region is the Census South as coded by the ANES. The cumulative file has no region for the 2,049 placed partisans among the 2024 panel and paper cases (the same cases that have no mode weight); their region is the Census region of the sample location in the ANES 2024 Time Series file (V243007, matched on the respondent identifier), which reproduces the cumulative-file South flag for every 2024 respondent who has both. Estimand: the weighted share within each cell. Weights: the ANES full-sample weight (VCF0009z); mode-specific weights (weight_ftf, weight_web) are used only for the 2024 face-to-face and web comparison, and the 2024 panel and paper cases, which have no mode weight, take the full-sample weight. Intervals: 95% Wilson intervals on the Kish effective sample size, which are model based and ignore clustering and stratification, which can raise or lower the variance, and no design-based interval was computed; differences between two independent estimates combine their standard errors in quadrature. A design effect of 2 is used only to show which verdicts are close to zero: every half-width is multiplied by the square root of 2. Suppression: a yearly cell needs at least 150 placed partisans and an effective sample of 100 or more, and a subgroup-by-decade cell needs at least 100 and an effective sample of 100 or more. Two cohort-by-decade cells that fail the floor are reported in a note to the cohort figure with their sample sizes and are not plotted. Placement in 2000: 52% of the 2000 respondents have no recorded answer to the seven-point item, against at most 1% in 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2004, and among those with an answer the share who chose don't know is in the range of those years, which fits an item put to a subsample of respondents; the 2000 placement rate is not read as partisans declining the scale. The design was inferred from the response pattern and not checked against the codebook, and the all-partisans series is left blank for 2000. Accounting exercise: the observed mix of cohorts in each decade is combined with fixed cohort rates (version A, the 1970s rate; version B, the rate in the cohort's first well-observed decade; a stricter rule (200 placed partisans and an effective sample of 150) and a looser rule (50 and 50) for a well-observed cell; and a limiting case that holds the cohorts born after 1958 at their 2020s rates). The within-cohort part is the observed fall minus the mix part. Intervals are percentile intervals from 1,000 bootstrap replicates that resample respondents within decades (seed 12345). Education mix: the 2020s rates of the three education groups are combined with the 1970s education mix, with bootstrap intervals of the same kind. Bases: within each year the placed partisans are weighted to the party, education, age-group and race mix of all partisans; pure independents are put back in the denominator; and all partisans are the base with the unplaced counted as not cross-pressured (lower bound) or as cross-pressured (upper bound). Second survey: the Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, even-year waves 2006 to 2024, with party identification (pid7 1 to 3 and 5 to 7) and the five-point ideology item (liberal 1 to 2, moderate 3, conservative 4 to 5; 'not sure' is not placed) and the survey weight of each wave; the ratio of the CES share to the ANES share is shown under two mappings of the seven-point scale (points 1-3 and 5-7, and points 1-2 and 6-7) with 95% delta-method intervals, and no verdict on the level is drawn. Mode: the ANES adds an online sample in 2012, has mode weights for 2012, 2016 and 2024 only, and none for 2020. Displayed differences are computed from unrounded values, so a printed difference can differ in the last digit from the difference of the printed shares.

## What these data cannot show

- Repeated cross-sections cannot show that any person switched, and no panel is in this chapter's data.
- The chapter also cannot say which identity moved.
- A conservative Democrat who leaves the cross-pressured group may have changed party to match ideology or changed ideology to match party, and the share counts both the same way.
- Age, period and cohort are not separated.
- The accounting exercise rests on assumptions about the rates of cohorts that were not observed in the 1970s.
- The versions above put the share of the fall due to the mix of cohorts at −0.4% in the first version, at 25.2% in the second and at 74.0% in the limiting case, and the data do not choose among them.
- The measure covers only people who place themselves on the scale.
- The reweighting handles differences in observed traits, and the ANES cannot show what people who decline the scale would have answered; with them in the base the fall is smaller.
- The scale may mean different things across decades and education groups, and the CES comparison shows that a comparison of levels across scales depends on the mapping.
- The ANES added an online sample in 2012, has no weights by interview mode for 2020, and gives a 2024 estimate that differs by mode within sampling error.
- The intervals are model based and ignore clustering and stratification, which can raise or lower the variance, and the chapter runs no design-based check.
- As an illustration, if clustering made the sampling variance larger by a design effect (the ratio of the true sampling variance to the model-based variance) of 2, every interval would extend 41% further from its estimate on each side.
- Among the cohort changes, the cohort-mix effect, the regional and education gaps and the fall from 1972 to 2024, one verdict would change: the interval for the change in the cohort born 1991 or later would become −4.9 (95% CI −10.1 to 0.4) and include zero.
- The data hold no measure of what parties and elites did.
- One account in the literature holds that party leaders clarified what the labels meant [3], and this chapter tests none of it.
- Chapter 4.7, Sort dates by attitude (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude) dates the sort issue by issue.

## References

1. Wilson, Edwin B. (1927). Probable Inference, the Law of Succession, and Statistical Inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 22(158): 209-212. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1927.10502953
2. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
3. Levendusky, Matthew (2009). The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. University of Chicago Press.
4. Carsey, Thomas M.; Layman, Geoffrey C. (2006). Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate. American Journal of Political Science 50(2): 464-477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00196.x
5. Highton, Benjamin; Kam, Cindy D. (2011). The Long-Term Dynamics of Partisanship and Issue Orientations. Journal of Politics 73(1): 202-215.
6. Abramowitz, Alan I.; Saunders, Kyle L. (1998). Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate. Journal of Politics 60(3): 634-652. https://doi.org/10.2307/2647642
7. Glenn, Norval D. (1976). Cohort Analysts' Futile Quest: Statistical Attempts to Separate Age, Period and Cohort Effects. American Sociological Review 41(5): 900-904. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094738
8. Black, Earl; Black, Merle (2002). The Rise of Southern Republicans. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674012486
9. Kinder, Donald R.; Kalmoe, Nathan P. (2017). Neither Liberal nor Conservative: Ideological Innocence in the American Public. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/N/bo25841664.html

## Provenance

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- Built on: 2026-09-30
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## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened/report
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- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "cross_share" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/cross_share.json
- Table 2, figure "cohort_panels" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/cohort_panels.json
- Table 3, figure "cohort_changes" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/cohort_changes.json
- Table 4, figure "frozen_cohorts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/frozen_cohorts.json
- Table 5, figure "mix_versions" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/mix_versions.json
- Table 6, figure "education_panels" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/education_panels.json
- Table 7, figure "region_panels" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/region_panels.json
- Table 8, figure "denominators" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/denominators.json
- Table 9, figure "two_surveys" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/two_surveys.json
- Table 10, figure "survey_ratio" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/how-the-sort-happened/figures/survey_ratio.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt