# Five axes of the county vote: report

Chapter 8.1 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Five axes of the county vote
- Chapter: 8.1 (Part VIII, Places and the people in them; Votes, giving and places)
- Question: How do education, income, race and ethnicity, age and rurality rank as correlates of the county vote?
- Dek: In 2024, college share had the largest correlation with the county two-party margin among five county characteristics, +0.66 vote-weighted, and it is not separated from rural share's −0.65.
- Grain: places
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-10-03
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - County election returns. County presidential returns, 2000-2024: Algara and Amlani (2000-2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired file; years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024; weights: none (full counts of votes); statistics weighted by two-party votes in the election, or county-equal
  - County demographics panel. County demographics panel, 2000-2024: education, income, race and ethnicity, age and rural share, with the rural-urban continuum code and its edition; years: 2000-2024 (election years, interpolated between census and survey anchors); weights: none (census and American Community Survey estimates, interpolated to election years; sampling error not carried)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026fiveaxesofthecountyvote

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026fiveaxesofthecountyvote,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Five axes of the county vote},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | +0.66 | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.72 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r_edu_2024_w |
| correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | −0.65 | 95% CI −0.74 to −0.56 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r_rural_2024_w |
| correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | −0.57 | 95% CI −0.71 to −0.44 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r_race_2024_w |
| absolute correlation of the first-ranked axis minus that of the second-ranked axis | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | +0.01 | 95% CI −0.05 to 0.09 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | gap_2024_w |
| share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2024 presidential election | 60% |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | first_edu_2024_w |
| share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2024 presidential election | 38% |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | first_rural_2024_w |
| correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | −0.52 | 95% CI −0.68 to −0.36 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r_race_2000_w |
| correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | −0.46 | 95% CI −0.56 to −0.36 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r_rural_2000_w |
| correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | +0.28 | 95% CI 0.18 to 0.38 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r_edu_2000_w |
| share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2000 presidential election | 87% |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | first_race_2000_w |
| R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 41% | 95% CI 30% to 56% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r2_2000_w |
| R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 69% | 95% CI 63% to 78% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r2_2024_w |
| R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 20% | 95% CI 11% to 33% | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | r2_2000_u |
| R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 59% | 95% CI 49% to 71% | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | r2_2024_u |
| R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 74% | 95% CI 65% to 82% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r2fe_2000_w |
| R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 87% | 95% CI 84% to 90% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | r2fe_2024_w |
| change between the two elections in the weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | +10.3 | 95% CI 7.0 to 13.8 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | chs_explained_2000_2024_w |
| change between the two elections in the weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | −2.0 | 95% CI −3.6 to −0.7 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | chs_resid_2000_2024_w |
| smallest number of counties in an election's sample | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 3,103 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_min |
| largest number of counties in an election's sample | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 3,113 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_max |
| number of bootstrap replicates | resamples of states | 2000 to 2024 | 2,000 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_reps |
| share of two-party votes cast in the Connecticut counties left out for a missing census measure | two-party votes in counties with returns, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 1.16% |   | 8 | none (full counts) | County election returns | ct_votes_2020 |
| share of two-party votes cast in the Connecticut counties left out for a missing census measure | two-party votes in counties with returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 1.14% |   | 8 | none (full counts) | County election returns | ct_votes_2024 |

## Findings

In 2024, college share, rural share and the non-Hispanic white share had the three largest correlations with the county two-party margin among five county characteristics. Vote-weighted, the correlations were +0.66 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.72) for college share, −0.65 for rural share and −0.57 for the white share. The first two are not separated. Their absolute correlations differ by +0.01 (95% CI −0.05 to 0.09), an interval that includes zero, and college share has the largest absolute correlation in 60% of resamples of states, against 38% for rural share. In 2000 the white share led, at −0.52 against −0.46 for rural share and +0.28 for college share, in 87% of resamples. Which axis ranks first depends on the election, on the weighting and on whether the other axes are held fixed, and in several elections the data do not separate the leading axes.

Together the five characteristics reproduce 41% (95% CI 30% to 56%) of the variance of the county margin in 2000 and 69% (95% CI 63% to 78%) in 2024, vote-weighted. These shares are in-sample fits of a linear regression, estimated and scored on the same counties, and not forecasts. Counting every county once, the shares are 20% (95% CI 11% to 33%) and 59% (95% CI 49% to 71%), and with a baseline margin for each state the vote-weighted shares are 74% (95% CI 65% to 82%) and 87% (95% CI 84% to 90%). The rise combines a wider fitted part of the margin and a narrower left-over part, by +10.3 (95% CI 7.0 to 13.8) and −2.0 (95% CI −3.6 to −0.7) points of standard deviation, vote-weighted.

This chapter is the common baseline for the county chapters of its part. It ranks five axes, education, income, race and ethnicity, age and rurality, as correlates of the county margin, in three steps. The first is the correlation of each axis alone with the margin, a raw association. The second is the coefficient of each axis when all five are held together, a conditional association. The third is the share of the variance of county margins that the five together reproduce, the fitted variance. Every statement describes an association among counties and not an effect on voters.

Each axis is one measure: the share of adults with a bachelor's degree or more (education), median household income in 2024 dollars (income), the non-Hispanic white share of residents (race and ethnicity), median age (age) and the share of residents living in rural areas as the Census Bureau defines them (rurality). The margin is the Democratic minus the Republican votes over their sum, so a positive correlation means that counties with more of a characteristic voted more Democratic. A vote-weighted statistic counts each county in proportion to its two-party votes in the election, and a county-equal statistic counts each county once. Both are shown throughout, because the largest counties dominate the first and the many small counties the second.

Each election uses 3,103 to 3,113 counties, those with returns and every census measure, and Table 1 lists which comparisons use the same counties, the same weights and the same other variables. (Note: Intervals on correlations and coefficients are 95% intervals with standard errors clustered by state [1]. Intervals on R-squared, on spreads, on differences between statistics and on the share of resamples in which an axis leads come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states (2,000 replicates). Returns are full counts, so the intervals say how much a number depends on which states are in the set. The census measures are interpolated between survey years and carry sampling error that no interval includes.) Alaska is not in the sample, because it reports returns by election district. Kansas City is added to Jackson County, Missouri in 2024, as it already is in earlier years, so that the unit matches its census measures. The Connecticut counties lack census measures in 2020 and 2024 and are left out, with 1.16% and 1.14% of the two-party votes.

Table 1. Every comparison in the chapter uses the same outcome and the same counties within an election, and differs in what it holds fixed

### Alone, the white share led through 2016; the leader since is unsettled

Table 2 plots the correlation of each axis with the margin in each election from 2000 to 2024. Through 2016 the white share has the largest absolute correlation in every election and both weightings in the point estimates, from −0.52 in 2000 to −0.68 in 2016 vote-weighted. It leads in 76% to 93% of resamples of states vote-weighted (79% in 2016) and in 70% to 98% county-equal (85% in 2016). In 2020 no axis leads clearly. Vote-weighted, rural share (−0.67) leads in 60% of resamples, the white share (−0.63) in 23% and college share (+0.64) in 17%. Counting each county once, college share (+0.53) and the white share (−0.53) are level in the point estimates. The white share leads in 52% of resamples, college share in 34% and rural share in 14%. In 2024 college share has the largest absolute correlation in both weightings, ahead of rural share by +0.01 (95% CI −0.05 to 0.09) vote-weighted and +0.03 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.10) county-equal. Both intervals include zero, and college share leads in 60% and 59% of resamples. The white share, the smallest of the three, exceeds income by +0.18 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.34) vote-weighted, so income and age are separated from the three largest axes.

Table 2. Vote-weighted, the correlation of college share with the county margin rose from +0.28 in 2000 to +0.66 in 2024, while the white share's moved from −0.52 to −0.57

The new order comes from college share rising. Vote-weighted, college share's correlation changed by +0.38 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.47) between 2000 and 2024, rural share's by −0.19 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.11) and the white share's by −0.05 (95% CI −0.13 to 0.03), an interval that includes zero. Income's correlation went from +0.10 to +0.40 and median age's from −0.08 to −0.31. Zingher [2] documents the rise of the education divide after 2000 in surveys and in aggregate alignment, and Companion 8.1a, The diploma map (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map) follows the education gradient across counties in detail. Planned, Income and the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/income-and-the-county-vote; planned) takes up income and Planned, Rural counties (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/rural-counties; planned) takes up rurality. Scala and Johnson [3] found that Democratic candidates did well in densely populated counties and poorly on the rural side of the urban-rural interface in 2000 to 2016, which matches the sign of rural share's correlation here.

### Held together, college share leads in 2024 and income changes sign

The five axes overlap across counties, so a correlation mixes an axis with the others. Table 3 compares each correlation with the coefficient of the same axis in one regression on all five, in standard deviations of the margin per standard deviation of the axis. A fixed effect for each state gives every state its own baseline margin, so a regression with state baselines compares counties within the same state.

Vote-weighted in 2024, college share goes from +0.66 alone to +0.71 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.79) with the other four axes held fixed, and the white share from −0.57 to −0.43 (95% CI −0.57 to −0.29). College share has the largest coefficient in 100% of resamples vote-weighted and 77% county-equal. Rural share goes from −0.65 to −0.12 (95% CI −0.25 to 0.01), an interval that includes zero. Income changes sign, from +0.40 alone to −0.26 (95% CI −0.40 to −0.11). Among counties with the same college share, white share, median age and rural share, those with higher median household income voted more Republican. Median age goes from −0.31 to +0.04 (95% CI −0.13 to 0.21). In points of margin, one vote-weighted standard deviation of college share (11.8 points of college share) goes with +23.4 (95% CI 20.7 to 26.1) points of margin in the joint model, against +6.7 (95% CI 3.0 to 10.5) in 2000. One standard deviation of the white share (21.1 points of white share) goes with −14.1 (95% CI −18.7 to −9.6) points of margin, against −13.4 (95% CI −17.4 to −9.4) in 2000.

Table 3. Held together, college share's coefficient is +0.71 against a correlation of +0.66, and income's is −0.26 against +0.40, vote-weighted in 2024

The sign of income describes a regression among counties and not households. Counties with higher median incomes also have higher college shares, and the coefficient on income is what remains once college share, the white share, age and rurality are fixed. Gelman and colleagues [4] found that income relates to Republican voting more strongly in poor states than in rich states, and Chapter 3.5, The income ladder (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-income-ladder) reports the income profile of individual voters.

Adding a baseline for each state keeps the order of the point estimates in 2024 and changes some sizes. Vote-weighted, college share is +0.73 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.80), the white share −0.62 (95% CI −0.76 to −0.48), income −0.40 (95% CI −0.48 to −0.33), rural share −0.09 (95% CI −0.14 to −0.04) and median age +0.08 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.13). In 2000 the white share's coefficient is −0.77 with state baselines against −0.50 without them, and it is the largest in 100% of resamples with baselines. In 2024 college share has the largest coefficient with baselines in 90% of resamples vote-weighted. Counting each county once, with state baselines, the white share's coefficient is −0.68 in 2000 and −0.73 in 2024, the largest in 98% of resamples in 2024. College share's is +0.54.

Which coefficient is largest is often unsettled (Table 4). Vote-weighted, college share has the largest coefficient in 65% of resamples in 2016 and 100% in 2024, but in 51% in 2004 and 55% in 2008, when the white share has 49% and 45%. The white share leads in 97% of resamples in 2000 and 73% in 2012. Counting each county once, the white share has the largest coefficient in the point estimates through 2016 and college share from 2020, with college share first in 56% of resamples in 2020 and 77% in 2024. College share's county-equal coefficient rose from +0.03 in 2000 to +0.56 in 2024, and income's is −0.14 in 2024.

Table 4. Held together, college share's coefficient rose from +0.25 in 2000 to +0.71 in 2024 and income's was below zero in every election, vote-weighted

Dropping an axis from the five-axis regression lowers the vote-weighted R-squared in 2024 by 16.9 (95% CI 12.1 to 22.8) points of variance for college share and 11.0 (95% CI 5.1 to 17.5) for the white share, against 2.7 for income, 0.7 for rural share and 0.1 for age. In 2000 the largest loss was the white share's, 15.1 points, and college share's was 2.4. Counting each county once, the white share's loss in 2024 (17.6) exceeds college share's (12.8) in the point estimates, the reverse of the order of the coefficients. The loss also depends on how much of an axis's variation the other axes already contain.

### The five axes reproduce more of the county margin than in 2000

The R-squared of a regression is the share of the variance of county margins that its fitted values reproduce. It is an in-sample fit, estimated and scored on the same counties, and not a forecast. Table 5 plots it by election. Vote-weighted, the five axes reproduce 41% (95% CI 30% to 56%) in 2000, 52% in 2012 and 72% (95% CI 67% to 79%) in 2016, then 72% in 2020 and 69% (95% CI 63% to 78%) in 2024. The rise from 2000 to 2016 is +31.3 (95% CI 22.0 to 39.1) points of variance, and the change from 2016 to 2024 is −3.6 (95% CI −7.1 to 1.5), an interval that includes zero. Most of the rise falls between 2012 and 2016, +19.9 (95% CI 15.3 to 23.6) points. Counting each county once the shares are 20% (95% CI 11% to 33%) in 2000, 33% in 2012, 58% in 2016 and 59% (95% CI 49% to 71%) in 2024.

State baselines alone reproduce 34% (95% CI 24% to 43%) of the variance in 2000 and 27% (95% CI 19% to 34%) in 2024, a change of −6.7 (95% CI −16.8 to 4.2) points whose interval includes zero. Adding the five axes to state baselines raises the share to 74% (95% CI 65% to 82%) in 2000 and 87% (95% CI 84% to 90%) in 2024. The share of the variance within states that the five axes reproduce rises from 61% (95% CI 50% to 72%) to 82% (95% CI 77% to 88%). Counting each county once, the five axes with state baselines reproduce 61% in 2000 and 82% in 2024. Nine measures, which add the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share to the five axes, reproduce 49% in 2000 and 71% in 2024 vote-weighted, so the extra measures add more in 2000 than in 2024.

Table 5. Vote-weighted, the five axes reproduce 41% of the variance of the county margin in 2000 and 69% in 2024, and 87% in 2024 with state baselines

A higher R-squared can come from a wider fitted part of the margin or from a narrower left-over part. Table 6 separates them. Vote-weighted, the standard deviation of county margins rose from 26.5 points in 2000 to 35.9 in 2016 and was 32.8 in 2024. The fitted part went from 16.9 (95% CI 13.4 to 20.9) to 27.2 (95% CI 24.7 to 30.4), a change of +10.3 (95% CI 7.0 to 13.8) points. The left-over part went from 20.4 (95% CI 18.0 to 21.9) to 18.4 (95% CI 15.5 to 19.7), a change of −2.0 (95% CI −3.6 to −0.7) points. Holding the left-over part at its 2000 value would put the 2024 share at 61% (95% CI 53% to 71%) instead of 69%, so the narrower left-over part accounts for 7.2 (95% CI 2.5 to 13.3) of the +27.8 (95% CI 18.9 to 37.3) points of the rise. With state baselines added, the left-over part went from 13.5 to 12.0. Counting each county once, the standard deviation of margins rose from 24.5 to 31.7, the fitted part went from 10.9 to 24.3 and the left-over part from 22.0 to 20.4.

Table 6. Vote-weighted, the part of the county margin that the five axes leave over narrowed from 20.4 to 18.4 points while the part they fit widened from 16.9 to 27.2

The census measures are interpolated, which could change the early R-squared if the early measures are noisier. The last four views of Table 5 hold the measures of one year fixed for every election. With the 2024 measures, the vote-weighted five-axis share is 35% in 2000, 71% in 2016 and 69% in 2024, and with the 2000 measures it is 41%, 72% and 68%. Counting each county once the shares are 18% in 2000 and 59% in 2024 with the 2024 measures, and 20% and 58% with the 2000 measures. The rise from 2012 to 2016 holds under each choice, at +19.9 points with the measures of the year, +20.9 with the 2024 measures and +19.3 with the 2000 measures. Small differences do not hold. The change from 2016 to 2024 is −3.6 points, −2.0 and −4.5 under the three choices. The census definition of rural also changes with the 2020 census, and the county-equal mean rural share goes from 59.6% in 2012 to 64.0% in 2020, while the population-weighted mean goes from 19.4% to 20.0%.

Chapter 6.1, Nationalization of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/nationalization-of-the-county-vote) measures the spread of county swings and Chapter 6.2, Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024 (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county) the distance of counties from the national margin, which are different quantities from the spread of margins here. Planned, Composition and behavior in county change (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/composition-and-behavior-in-county-change; planned) separates change in composition from change in behavior.

### Weighting changes the level of the correlations and the likeliest 2020 leader

Table 7 compares the vote-weighted and county-equal correlations for 2000 and 2024. In 2000 the vote-weighted correlation of college share exceeds the county-equal one by +0.18 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.26), and that of rural share is more negative by −0.19 (95% CI −0.26 to −0.12). In 2024 the differences are +0.11 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.20) and −0.13 (95% CI −0.20 to −0.05), and the white share's is −0.08 (95% CI −0.17 to 0.04), an interval that includes zero. For income the difference goes from +0.08 (95% CI −0.05 to 0.19) to +0.09 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.22) and for median age from +0.09 (95% CI −0.03 to 0.20) to −0.11 (95% CI −0.20 to −0.01). The R-squared of the five axes is higher vote-weighted in every election, by +21.2 (95% CI 9.5 to 31.9) points in 2000 and +9.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 18.5) in 2024, and by +13.4 (95% CI 5.3 to 20.9) and +4.7 (95% CI 1.2 to 8.6) points with state baselines.

Table 7. The vote-weighted correlation of college share exceeds the county-equal one by +0.18 in 2000 and by +0.11 in 2024

A vote-weighted statistic describes the counties where the votes are, and a county-equal statistic describes the typical county. The 135 counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes cast 46% of the votes in 2024 and 76 such counties cast 35% in 2000, so the vote-weighted figures describe the large counties more than the county-equal ones do. Solon, Haider and Wooldridge [5] discuss the reasons for weighting a regression aimed at causal effects and find that each sometimes does not apply where practitioners assume it does. The regressions here are descriptive, and the chapter reports both weightings and does not choose between them. They agree on the sign of every correlation in every election. They differ in the leader of the point estimates in 2020, where rural share leads vote-weighted and college share and the white share are level county-equal. They also differ in the share of the margin that the five axes reproduce in the early elections.

### Each axis is several measures

Table 8 replaces the single measure of each axis with alternatives, for 2024 and the same counties. Within education, the share of adults with a bachelor's degree has a vote-weighted correlation of +0.66 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.72) and the share without a high school diploma has −0.03 (95% CI −0.20 to 0.14), an interval that includes zero, so the education axis here is the top of the schooling distribution. Within income, median household income has +0.40 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.50), per capita income +0.55 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.64) and the poverty rate −0.03 (95% CI −0.14 to 0.09), an interval that includes zero. Within age, median age has −0.31, the share aged 65 or older −0.34 and the share under 30 +0.12 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.25).

Table 8. The correlation depends on the measure within an axis in 2024, from −0.03 for the share without a high school diploma to +0.66 for college share, vote-weighted

Race and ethnicity is measured by five shares here. The white share has −0.57 (95% CI −0.71 to −0.44), and the Black, Hispanic, Asian and foreign-born shares have +0.39, +0.24 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.38), +0.52 and +0.54. Counting each county once, the Hispanic share's correlation is +0.11 (95% CI −0.09 to 0.30), an interval that includes zero. Per capita income (+0.55), the Asian share (+0.52) and the foreign-born share (+0.54) have correlations about the size of the white share's. The ranking of the five axes in the first figure is therefore a ranking of five chosen measures, and a different measure of an axis can change it. Chapter 3.3, Hispanic, Black and Asian voters (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/hispanic-black-and-asian-voters; planned) and Chapter 8.2, Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024 (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/education-ethnicity-and-the-county-shift) follow the group shares, and Chapter 3.7, Age and generation (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/age-and-generation) takes up age.

The rural-urban continuum code is the other common measure of rurality. Its 2013 edition covers the elections through 2016 and its 2023 edition covers 2020 and 2024. Vote-weighted, its correlation with the margin is −0.51 in 2016 and −0.52 in 2020, and that of rural share is −0.65 and −0.67, so the change of edition leaves both series without a break. The code's correlation in 2024 is −0.51 (95% CI −0.58 to −0.44), smaller in size than rural share's −0.65 (95% CI −0.74 to −0.56).

### The gaps from the fit run by region

Table 9 maps the gap between each county's margin and the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression, estimated separately for 2000 and 2024. A negative gap means the county voted more Republican than the five axes fit. The standard deviation of the gap is 20.4 points in 2000 and 18.4 in 2024, and counties more than 20 points from the fit cast 35% of the votes in 2000 and 25% in 2024.

Table 9. In 2024 the mean gap between a county's margin and the five-axis fit is −10.8 points in the Census South and +6.7 points in the rest of the country, vote-weighted

The gaps run by region. In 2024 the vote-weighted mean gap is −10.8 points in the Census South, the Census Bureau's South region, and +6.7 in the rest of the country, against −11.5 and +6.0 in 2000. By state, Texas is −21.7 and Vermont +42.6 in 2024. State baselines absorb the state-level part of these gaps, and the vote-weighted five-axis R-squared goes from 69% to 87% in 2024 when they are added. Among counties with 100,000 or more two-party votes, the three largest gaps above the fit in 2024 are Clayton County, Georgia (+52.2), Sonoma County, California (+48.2) and Prince George's County, Maryland (+48.1). The three largest below are Forsyth County, Georgia (−52.9), Williamson County, Tennessee (−52.1) and Shelby County, Alabama (−47.4). Miami-Dade County, Florida, is fitted at +35.3 and voted −11.5, a gap of −46.8 points.

A gap compares votes with the characteristics of residents, so it can reflect candidates, campaigns, turnout and characteristics the five axes omit as well as place. Chapter 8.3, Party and place (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-place) compares partisans in counties with different margins, and Chapter 8.2, Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024 (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/education-ethnicity-and-the-county-shift) follows the high-Hispanic counties across 2016 to 2024.

### What these data cannot show

Every statistic above is a property of counties. A pattern across places can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them, a limit known as ecological inference. Robinson [6] showed that a correlation across areas can have the opposite sign from the correlation across individuals. The characteristics describe residents, including residents who are not citizens or not of voting age, and the margin describes voters. A sign such as income's negative coefficient is a feature of one regression among counties and says nothing about how households of different incomes voted.

The five axes are five chosen measures. The ranking changes with the measure within an axis (Table 8), and the axes omit religion, occupation, density, the age of housing and every characteristic that is not in the county panel. A standardized coefficient depends on the spread of the axis across counties, which differs between the weightings and between elections, so a coefficient that rises can reflect a change in spread as well as a steeper slope. The R-squared values are in-sample fits of linear regressions and not forecasts. State baselines absorb every difference between states, including differences in composition that sit at the state level, so the within-state results describe counties compared inside states and not the effect of removing state context.

The census measures are decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years. Only 2000 and 2024 are close to a direct measurement, and the elections between are blends of adjacent releases, so the measures for those years carry sampling error and interpolation error that no interval includes. Rural share is anchored to the decennial censuses and has one value for 2020 and 2024. The county set is not harmonized across boundary changes, a few small counties lack measures in some years, and the counties are the units of the returns and not of any community.

The intervals show dependence on which states are in the set. They are not sampling error of the vote, which is a full count, and the bootstrap intervals for differences between statistics treat the states as the only source of variation. The chapter has no data on turnout by group, on candidates or on campaigns, so it cannot say why the order of the axes changed after 2016 or why the fit improved.

## Tables

### Table 1. Every comparison in the chapter uses the same outcome and the same counties within an election, and differs in what it holds fixed

The outcome, sample, period, weights and other variables of each comparison; the outcome is the county two-party margin, Democratic minus Republican

| Comparison | Counties | Elections | Weights | Other variables held fixed |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Correlation of one axis with the margin | Counties with returns and every census measure; the same counties for every comparison in an election | Each presidential election, 2000 to 2024 | Vote-weighted and county-equal | Nothing else |
| Regression of the margin on the five axes | Same counties | Each election, 2000 to 2024 | Vote-weighted and county-equal | The other four axes |
| The same regression with state baselines | Same counties | Each election, 2000 to 2024 | Vote-weighted and county-equal | The other four axes and a baseline margin for each state |
| Share of the variance of the margin reproduced (R-squared) | Same counties | Each election, 2000 to 2024 | Vote-weighted and county-equal | Five axes; five axes with state baselines; state baselines alone; nine measures |
| Checks with fixed census measures | Counties that also have the fixed measures, a few fewer | Each election, 2000 to 2024 | Vote-weighted and county-equal | The 2024 census measures, or the 2000 census measures, used for every election |
| Alternative measures within each axis | The 2024 counties of the main sample | 2024 | Vote-weighted and county-equal | Nothing else |
| Map of the gap between margin and fit | The 2000 and 2024 counties of the main sample | 2000 and 2024 | Fit weighted by two-party votes | The five axes |

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes; county demographics panel (census and American Community Survey); both weightings reported

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/comparisons.json

### Table 2. Vote-weighted, the correlation of college share with the county margin rose from +0.28 in 2000 to +0.66 in 2024, while the white share's moved from −0.52 to −0.57

Correlation between a county characteristic and the county two-party margin in the same presidential election, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes

| Election | Axis | Measure | Weighting | Correlation | Interval low | Interval high | Share of resamples with the largest absolute correlation (%) | Counties |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2000 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.28 | +0.18 | +0.38 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.38 | +0.28 | +0.47 | 2 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.43 | +0.34 | +0.51 | 1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.41 | +0.34 | +0.49 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.58 | +0.51 | +0.64 | 1 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.64 | +0.58 | +0.70 | 17 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Education | College share | Vote-weighted | +0.66 | +0.60 | +0.72 | 60 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.20 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.23 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.17 | +0.05 | +0.28 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.16 | +0.04 | +0.27 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.32 | +0.19 | +0.44 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.39 | +0.29 | +0.49 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.50 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.52 | −0.68 | −0.36 | 87 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.50 | −0.65 | −0.35 | 77 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.55 | −0.67 | −0.42 | 76 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.59 | −0.72 | −0.47 | 93 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.68 | −0.79 | −0.57 | 79 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.63 | −0.75 | −0.51 | 23 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.57 | −0.71 | −0.44 | 2 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.04 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.22 | −0.32 | −0.12 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.24 | −0.35 | −0.13 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.36 | −0.46 | −0.26 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.24 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.31 | −0.41 | −0.21 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.46 | −0.56 | −0.36 | 13 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.46 | −0.55 | −0.38 | 22 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.52 | −0.60 | −0.43 | 24 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.52 | −0.61 | −0.44 | 7 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.56 | 20 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.67 | −0.76 | −0.58 | 60 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.56 | 38 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.20 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.21 | +0.13 | +0.29 | 2 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.31 | +0.24 | +0.37 | 12 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.30 | +0.23 | +0.38 | 1 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.46 | +0.38 | +0.55 | 6 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.53 | +0.45 | +0.61 | 34 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Education | College share | County-equal | +0.56 | +0.47 | +0.64 | 59 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.14 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.14 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.22 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.21 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.19 | +0.05 | +0.33 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.28 | +0.14 | +0.41 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.30 | +0.17 | +0.43 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.40 | −0.54 | −0.26 | 98 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.36 | −0.52 | −0.20 | 92 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.36 | −0.51 | −0.21 | 70 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.44 | −0.61 | −0.28 | 88 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.57 | −0.73 | −0.41 | 85 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.53 | −0.73 | −0.33 | 52 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.50 | −0.71 | −0.28 | 30 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.05 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.14 | −0.25 | −0.03 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.16 | −0.26 | −0.07 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.18 | −0.27 | −0.08 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.18 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.15 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.20 | −0.27 | −0.12 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.27 | −0.36 | −0.18 | 2 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.26 | −0.34 | −0.18 | 6 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.33 | −0.40 | −0.26 | 19 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.35 | −0.42 | −0.29 | 11 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.49 | −0.56 | −0.42 | 9 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.52 | −0.59 | −0.45 | 14 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.46 | 11 | 3,103 |

Views: Vote-weighted (weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (weighting = County-equal); Education, both weightings (axis = Education); Share of resamples in which an axis leads, vote-weighted (weighting = Vote-weighted); Share of resamples in which an axis leads, county-equal (weighting = County-equal).

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: Each county's measures are those of the election year, interpolated between census and survey years; see Methods.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/corr_by_year.json

### Table 3. Held together, college share's coefficient is +0.71 against a correlation of +0.66, and income's is −0.26 against +0.40, vote-weighted in 2024

Standardized coefficients for the county two-party margin in 2024: each axis alone, all five axes together, and all five with a baseline for each state; two weightings

| Election | Weighting | Axis | Model | Coefficient | Interval low | Interval high | Counties |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Education | Each axis alone | +0.66 | +0.60 | +0.72 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Education | Each axis alone | +0.28 | +0.18 | +0.38 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Income | Each axis alone | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.50 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Income | Each axis alone | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.20 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Race and ethnicity | Each axis alone | −0.57 | −0.71 | −0.44 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Race and ethnicity | Each axis alone | −0.52 | −0.68 | −0.36 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Age | Each axis alone | −0.31 | −0.41 | −0.21 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Age | Each axis alone | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.04 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Rurality | Each axis alone | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.56 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Rurality | Each axis alone | −0.46 | −0.56 | −0.36 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Education | Each axis alone | +0.56 | +0.47 | +0.64 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Education | Each axis alone | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.20 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Income | Each axis alone | +0.30 | +0.17 | +0.43 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Income | Each axis alone | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.14 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Race and ethnicity | Each axis alone | −0.50 | −0.71 | −0.28 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Race and ethnicity | Each axis alone | −0.40 | −0.54 | −0.26 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Age | Each axis alone | −0.20 | −0.27 | −0.12 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Age | Each axis alone | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.05 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Rurality | Each axis alone | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.46 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Rurality | Each axis alone | −0.27 | −0.36 | −0.18 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Education | All five together | +0.71 | +0.63 | +0.80 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Education | All five together | +0.25 | +0.11 | +0.39 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Income | All five together | −0.26 | −0.40 | −0.11 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Income | All five together | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.06 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Race and ethnicity | All five together | −0.43 | −0.57 | −0.29 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Race and ethnicity | All five together | −0.50 | −0.66 | −0.35 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Age | All five together | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.21 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Age | All five together | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.49 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Rurality | All five together | −0.12 | −0.25 | +0.01 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Rurality | All five together | −0.25 | −0.38 | −0.11 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Education | All five together | +0.56 | +0.48 | +0.64 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Education | All five together | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.14 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Income | All five together | −0.14 | −0.23 | −0.06 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Income | All five together | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.10 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Race and ethnicity | All five together | −0.47 | −0.67 | −0.28 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Race and ethnicity | All five together | −0.39 | −0.55 | −0.22 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Age | All five together | +0.13 | +0.07 | +0.20 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Age | All five together | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.20 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Rurality | All five together | −0.20 | −0.30 | −0.10 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Rurality | All five together | −0.20 | −0.28 | −0.12 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Education | All five with state baselines | +0.73 | +0.65 | +0.80 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Education | All five with state baselines | +0.26 | +0.14 | +0.38 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Income | All five with state baselines | −0.41 | −0.48 | −0.33 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Income | All five with state baselines | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.17 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Race and ethnicity | All five with state baselines | −0.62 | −0.76 | −0.48 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Race and ethnicity | All five with state baselines | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.64 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Age | All five with state baselines | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.14 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Age | All five with state baselines | +0.22 | +0.11 | +0.33 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Rurality | All five with state baselines | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.04 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Rurality | All five with state baselines | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Education | All five with state baselines | +0.54 | +0.47 | +0.60 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Education | All five with state baselines | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.24 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Income | All five with state baselines | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.13 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Income | All five with state baselines | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.08 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Race and ethnicity | All five with state baselines | −0.73 | −0.84 | −0.61 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Race and ethnicity | All five with state baselines | −0.68 | −0.76 | −0.60 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Age | All five with state baselines | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.15 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Age | All five with state baselines | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.17 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Rurality | All five with state baselines | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.06 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Rurality | All five with state baselines | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.05 | 3,113 |

Views: 2024 (year = 2024); 2000 (year = 2000).

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: Standardization uses the weighted mean and standard deviation of the weighting shown, in the election shown.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/rank_ladder.json

### Table 4. Held together, college share's coefficient rose from +0.25 in 2000 to +0.71 in 2024 and income's was below zero in every election, vote-weighted

Standardized coefficients from a regression of the county two-party margin on all five axes, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes

| Election | Weighting | Model | Axis | Coefficient | Interval low | Interval high | Share of resamples with the largest absolute coefficient (%) | Counties |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.25 | +0.11 | +0.39 | 1 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.49 | +0.35 | +0.62 | 51 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.51 | +0.40 | +0.62 | 55 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.51 | +0.40 | +0.63 | 27 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.62 | +0.54 | +0.71 | 65 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.66 | +0.58 | +0.74 | 99 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Education | +0.71 | +0.63 | +0.80 | 100 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.06 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.31 | −0.42 | −0.20 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.29 | −0.41 | −0.17 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.30 | −0.43 | −0.17 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.25 | −0.37 | −0.13 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.23 | −0.36 | −0.10 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Income | −0.26 | −0.40 | −0.11 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.50 | −0.66 | −0.35 | 97 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.47 | −0.61 | −0.33 | 49 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.49 | −0.62 | −0.36 | 45 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.56 | −0.69 | −0.42 | 73 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.48 | 35 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.51 | −0.63 | −0.39 | 1 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.43 | −0.57 | −0.29 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.49 | 1 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.28 | +0.09 | +0.47 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.20 | +0.02 | +0.38 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.40 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.24 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.22 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Age | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.21 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.25 | −0.38 | −0.11 | 2 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.18 | −0.33 | −0.03 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.18 | −0.31 | −0.04 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.14 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.11 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.13 | −0.24 | −0.01 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five together | Rurality | −0.12 | −0.25 | +0.01 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.14 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.26 | +0.14 | +0.38 | 19 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.34 | +0.23 | +0.46 | 41 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.36 | +0.24 | +0.48 | 18 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.51 | +0.41 | +0.60 | 23 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.55 | +0.46 | +0.64 | 56 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five together | Education | +0.56 | +0.48 | +0.64 | 77 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.10 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.15 | −0.25 | −0.05 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.02 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.17 | −0.31 | −0.03 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.05 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.04 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five together | Income | −0.14 | −0.23 | −0.06 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.39 | −0.55 | −0.22 | 99 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.35 | −0.53 | −0.17 | 80 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.36 | −0.53 | −0.19 | 59 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.45 | −0.63 | −0.27 | 81 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.57 | −0.72 | −0.42 | 77 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.52 | −0.70 | −0.35 | 45 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five together | Race and ethnicity | −0.47 | −0.67 | −0.28 | 23 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.20 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.23 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.14 | +0.04 | +0.23 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.17 | +0.08 | +0.26 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.16 | +0.09 | +0.22 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.14 | +0.08 | +0.21 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five together | Age | +0.13 | +0.07 | +0.20 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.20 | −0.28 | −0.12 | 1 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.15 | −0.24 | −0.06 | 1 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.08 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.19 | −0.30 | −0.09 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.19 | −0.29 | −0.10 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.20 | −0.30 | −0.10 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five together | Rurality | −0.20 | −0.30 | −0.10 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.26 | +0.14 | +0.38 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.47 | +0.33 | +0.62 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.49 | +0.36 | +0.62 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.47 | +0.34 | +0.60 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.62 | +0.53 | +0.70 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.67 | +0.60 | +0.74 | 40 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.73 | +0.65 | +0.80 | 90 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.17 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.31 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.38 | −0.44 | −0.32 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.39 | −0.45 | −0.33 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.35 | −0.40 | −0.29 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.37 | −0.43 | −0.30 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.41 | −0.48 | −0.33 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.64 | 100 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.77 | −0.89 | −0.66 | 100 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.76 | −0.88 | −0.65 | 100 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.81 | −0.91 | −0.70 | 100 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.79 | −0.88 | −0.71 | 100 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.69 | −0.81 | −0.58 | 60 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.62 | −0.76 | −0.48 | 10 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.22 | +0.11 | +0.33 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.23 | +0.11 | +0.35 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.15 | +0.05 | +0.25 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.14 | +0.05 | +0.23 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.10 | +0.04 | +0.16 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.14 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.14 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.04 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.02 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.03 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.03 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.04 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.24 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.33 | +0.23 | +0.43 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.35 | +0.26 | +0.44 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.34 | +0.26 | +0.42 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.49 | +0.43 | +0.56 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.53 | +0.47 | +0.58 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Education | +0.54 | +0.47 | +0.60 | 2 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.08 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.24 | −0.31 | −0.18 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.23 | −0.28 | −0.17 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.23 | −0.28 | −0.17 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.15 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.14 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Income | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.13 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.68 | −0.76 | −0.60 | 100 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.70 | −0.79 | −0.61 | 100 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.75 | −0.85 | −0.66 | 100 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.80 | −0.89 | −0.71 | 100 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.83 | −0.91 | −0.75 | 100 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.77 | −0.86 | −0.68 | 100 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Race and ethnicity | −0.73 | −0.84 | −0.61 | 98 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.17 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.13 | +0.07 | +0.20 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.17 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.13 | +0.08 | +0.18 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.16 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.15 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Age | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.15 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.05 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.02 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | 0 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.02 | 0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.03 | 0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.05 | 0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | All five with state baselines | Rurality | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.06 | 0 | 3,103 |

Views: Vote-weighted (model = All five together, weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (model = All five together, weighting = County-equal); Vote-weighted, with state baselines (model = All five with state baselines, weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal, with state baselines (model = All five with state baselines, weighting = County-equal).

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: Standardization uses the weighted mean and standard deviation of the weighting shown, in the election shown.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/joint_by_year.json

### Table 5. Vote-weighted, the five axes reproduce 41% of the variance of the county margin in 2000 and 69% in 2024, and 87% in 2024 with state baselines

Share of the variance of the county two-party margin reproduced by regressions on county characteristics, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes

| Election | Weighting | Census measures | Regression | R-squared (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Counties |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 40.8 | 29.6 | 56.0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 43.5 | 34.6 | 56.7 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 48.2 | 39.6 | 59.8 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 52.3 | 44.3 | 63.2 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 72.2 | 67.0 | 79.3 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 72.0 | 67.1 | 79.5 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 68.6 | 63.1 | 78.1 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 74.1 | 64.8 | 82.0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 74.7 | 67.9 | 81.9 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 79.9 | 74.6 | 85.4 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 81.9 | 77.1 | 86.8 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 88.9 | 86.6 | 91.7 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 88.3 | 85.6 | 91.4 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 86.6 | 83.6 | 90.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 34.2 | 24.3 | 42.7 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 29.5 | 21.1 | 37.7 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 31.6 | 24.1 | 38.2 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 31.4 | 23.2 | 38.6 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 28.9 | 18.5 | 37.2 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 28.9 | 19.2 | 36.7 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 27.4 | 19.0 | 34.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 49.2 | 38.6 | 62.8 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 50.1 | 41.8 | 61.5 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 52.1 | 44.6 | 62.6 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 56.4 | 49.3 | 66.5 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 73.8 | 69.1 | 80.8 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 73.4 | 69.8 | 80.5 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 71.1 | 67.2 | 79.2 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 19.6 | 11.4 | 33.3 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 19.8 | 11.7 | 34.3 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 25.5 | 17.4 | 39.9 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 33.1 | 23.9 | 48.8 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 57.8 | 49.1 | 70.2 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 59.7 | 50.6 | 71.9 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes | 58.7 | 49.4 | 71.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 60.7 | 53.9 | 66.8 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 63.0 | 56.6 | 68.4 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 70.9 | 65.4 | 75.3 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 74.0 | 68.9 | 78.1 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 81.9 | 78.9 | 84.8 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 83.4 | 80.8 | 86.0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Five axes and state baselines | 82.0 | 79.2 | 84.9 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 33.7 | 23.4 | 42.6 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 33.1 | 22.8 | 41.5 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 35.5 | 26.2 | 43.3 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 35.8 | 26.9 | 43.6 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 33.0 | 24.3 | 41.5 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 34.8 | 26.7 | 42.4 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | State baselines alone | 34.6 | 26.7 | 41.6 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 26.6 | 19.6 | 38.2 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 27.7 | 21.0 | 39.0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 30.5 | 23.1 | 43.1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 38.8 | 29.8 | 52.0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 62.2 | 54.0 | 72.2 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 65.7 | 58.7 | 74.1 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Election-year census measures | Nine measures | 66.0 | 59.0 | 74.3 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 35.1 | 26.7 | 48.1 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 39.6 | 32.8 | 51.4 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 45.2 | 37.9 | 56.5 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 49.7 | 42.2 | 61.0 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 70.5 | 65.0 | 78.2 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 71.5 | 66.6 | 79.4 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 68.6 | 63.1 | 78.1 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 68.8 | 59.8 | 77.1 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 70.9 | 62.8 | 79.3 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 77.8 | 71.7 | 84.2 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 80.3 | 74.6 | 85.9 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 88.4 | 85.9 | 91.2 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 88.3 | 85.6 | 91.4 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 86.6 | 83.6 | 90.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 33.8 | 23.2 | 42.9 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 29.4 | 20.9 | 37.9 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 31.4 | 23.7 | 37.6 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 31.2 | 22.6 | 37.6 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 28.8 | 18.3 | 37.2 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 28.9 | 19.2 | 36.7 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 27.4 | 19.0 | 34.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 43.5 | 34.8 | 57.0 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 45.9 | 39.5 | 57.1 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 49.1 | 42.5 | 59.6 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 53.9 | 47.1 | 64.4 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 72.2 | 67.4 | 79.4 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 73.0 | 69.2 | 80.5 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 71.1 | 67.2 | 79.2 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 17.8 | 11.4 | 29.5 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 19.6 | 13.1 | 31.9 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 24.3 | 16.7 | 37.5 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 31.2 | 21.7 | 47.0 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 55.5 | 45.9 | 68.3 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 58.7 | 49.3 | 71.2 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes | 58.7 | 49.4 | 71.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 55.1 | 48.3 | 61.7 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 58.6 | 52.1 | 64.5 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 67.7 | 62.5 | 72.1 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 71.4 | 67.0 | 75.4 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 79.9 | 76.6 | 83.0 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 82.5 | 79.7 | 85.3 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 82.0 | 79.2 | 84.9 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 33.7 | 23.5 | 42.8 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 33.1 | 22.5 | 41.5 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 35.4 | 26.2 | 43.1 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 35.6 | 26.8 | 43.4 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 32.6 | 24.2 | 40.7 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 34.8 | 26.6 | 42.4 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 34.6 | 26.7 | 41.6 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 26.2 | 19.8 | 36.6 | 3,102 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 28.1 | 21.9 | 38.3 | 3,103 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 29.7 | 22.3 | 41.2 | 3,103 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 37.5 | 28.0 | 50.5 | 3,103 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 60.6 | 52.0 | 70.6 | 3,104 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 65.1 | 57.8 | 73.7 | 3,104 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2024 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 66.0 | 59.0 | 74.3 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 40.8 | 29.6 | 56.0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 43.1 | 33.3 | 56.5 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 47.9 | 38.0 | 60.2 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 52.8 | 43.4 | 64.5 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 72.0 | 64.9 | 79.7 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 71.5 | 65.4 | 79.0 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 67.6 | 61.1 | 76.6 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 74.1 | 64.8 | 82.0 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 74.5 | 67.5 | 82.0 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 79.2 | 73.7 | 85.1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 81.2 | 76.4 | 86.4 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 88.0 | 85.3 | 90.8 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 86.4 | 83.2 | 89.8 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 84.0 | 80.7 | 88.1 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 34.2 | 24.3 | 42.7 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 29.5 | 21.1 | 37.7 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 31.6 | 24.1 | 38.2 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 31.3 | 23.2 | 38.6 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 28.9 | 18.4 | 37.2 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 29.0 | 19.3 | 36.8 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 27.6 | 19.2 | 35.1 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 49.2 | 38.6 | 62.8 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 49.8 | 41.1 | 61.3 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 52.2 | 43.7 | 62.8 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 57.4 | 49.1 | 67.5 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 74.3 | 68.2 | 81.0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 73.6 | 68.6 | 80.5 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 70.8 | 65.8 | 78.6 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 19.6 | 11.4 | 33.3 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 19.5 | 10.8 | 34.2 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 25.5 | 16.7 | 40.3 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 33.0 | 22.5 | 49.6 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 57.4 | 47.3 | 70.6 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 59.1 | 48.7 | 72.5 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes | 58.4 | 47.8 | 71.8 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 60.7 | 53.9 | 66.8 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 63.1 | 56.7 | 68.6 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 71.2 | 66.0 | 75.4 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 74.7 | 69.9 | 78.5 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 82.5 | 79.9 | 85.1 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 83.5 | 81.2 | 86.1 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Five axes and state baselines | 82.5 | 80.1 | 85.2 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 33.7 | 23.4 | 42.6 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 33.1 | 22.8 | 41.5 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 35.5 | 26.2 | 43.3 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 35.6 | 26.7 | 43.4 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 32.9 | 24.3 | 41.5 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 35.2 | 26.8 | 43.2 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | State baselines alone | 35.1 | 26.9 | 42.4 | 3,110 |
| 2000 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 26.6 | 19.6 | 38.2 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 26.8 | 19.7 | 38.7 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 29.6 | 21.8 | 43.1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 37.7 | 27.8 | 52.1 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 61.2 | 52.1 | 72.1 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 64.2 | 56.3 | 73.9 | 3,111 |
| 2024 | County-equal | 2000 census measures for every election | Nine measures | 64.3 | 56.7 | 73.6 | 3,110 |

Views: Vote-weighted (measures = Election-year census measures, weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (measures = Election-year census measures, weighting = County-equal); Vote-weighted, 2024 census measures (measures = 2024 census measures for every election, weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal, 2024 census measures (measures = 2024 census measures for every election, weighting = County-equal); Vote-weighted, 2000 census measures (measures = 2000 census measures for every election, weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal, 2000 census measures (measures = 2000 census measures for every election, weighting = County-equal).

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: In the last four views the counties that lack the fixed census measures are dropped from every election.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/r2_by_year.json

### Table 6. Vote-weighted, the part of the county margin that the five axes leave over narrowed from 20.4 to 18.4 points while the part they fit widened from 16.9 to 27.2

Standard deviation across counties of the two-party margin, the margin fitted by the five axes and the margin left over, 2000 to 2024, counties weighted by two-party votes

| Election | Weighting | Part of the margin | Standard deviation (points) | Interval low | Interval high | Counties |
| ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 26.5 | 24.0 | 28.6 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 27.4 | 25.2 | 29.1 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 28.8 | 26.5 | 30.7 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 31.1 | 28.7 | 33.1 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 35.9 | 33.3 | 37.9 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 34.1 | 31.8 | 36.1 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Margin | 32.8 | 30.6 | 35.0 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 16.9 | 13.4 | 20.9 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 18.0 | 15.0 | 21.4 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 20.0 | 17.0 | 23.1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 22.5 | 19.5 | 25.7 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 30.5 | 27.7 | 33.3 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 28.9 | 26.4 | 31.8 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Fitted by the five axes | 27.2 | 24.7 | 30.4 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 20.4 | 18.0 | 21.9 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 20.6 | 18.4 | 21.7 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 20.7 | 18.1 | 22.2 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 21.5 | 18.8 | 23.0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 18.9 | 16.5 | 20.3 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 18.0 | 15.5 | 19.3 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes | 18.4 | 15.5 | 19.7 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 13.5 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 13.8 | 11.9 | 14.9 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 12.9 | 11.3 | 13.9 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 13.2 | 11.5 | 14.3 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 12.0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 11.7 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | Vote-weighted | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 12.0 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Margin | 24.5 | 22.3 | 26.3 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Margin | 25.4 | 23.2 | 27.1 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Margin | 28.1 | 25.7 | 30.1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Margin | 30.1 | 27.4 | 32.3 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Margin | 32.3 | 29.8 | 34.5 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Margin | 32.6 | 30.3 | 34.8 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Margin | 31.7 | 29.5 | 33.7 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 10.8 | 8.2 | 14.3 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 11.3 | 8.6 | 14.9 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 14.2 | 11.7 | 17.7 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 17.3 | 14.6 | 21.0 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 24.6 | 21.8 | 27.9 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 25.2 | 22.4 | 28.8 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Fitted by the five axes | 24.3 | 21.3 | 27.8 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 22.0 | 19.2 | 23.9 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 22.7 | 19.8 | 24.5 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 24.3 | 20.9 | 26.5 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 24.6 | 20.8 | 27.1 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 21.0 | 17.6 | 23.2 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 20.7 | 17.1 | 23.0 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes | 20.4 | 16.9 | 22.6 | 3,103 |
| 2000 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 15.4 | 14.0 | 16.4 | 3,113 |
| 2004 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 15.4 | 14.2 | 16.4 | 3,113 |
| 2008 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 15.2 | 14.0 | 16.1 | 3,113 |
| 2012 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 15.3 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 3,112 |
| 2016 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 13.7 | 12.5 | 14.7 | 3,111 |
| 2020 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 13.3 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 3,103 |
| 2024 | County-equal | Left over after the five axes and state baselines | 13.4 | 12.1 | 14.4 | 3,103 |

Views: Vote-weighted (weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (weighting = County-equal).

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/spread_by_year.json

### Table 7. The vote-weighted correlation of college share exceeds the county-equal one by +0.18 in 2000 and by +0.11 in 2024

Correlation of each axis with the county two-party margin when counties are weighted by two-party votes and when each county counts once, 2000 and 2024

| axis | ce_high | ce_low | county_equal | election | n_units | vote_weighted | vw_high | vw_low |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Education | 0.195 | 0.005 | 0.100 | 2000 | 3,113 | 0.282 | 0.381 | 0.182 |
| Income | 0.137 | −0.101 | 0.018 | 2000 | 3,113 | 0.096 | 0.198 | −0.005 |
| Race and ethnicity | −0.259 | −0.541 | −0.400 | 2000 | 3,113 | −0.519 | −0.357 | −0.681 |
| Age | −0.054 | −0.283 | −0.169 | 2000 | 3,113 | −0.076 | 0.036 | −0.187 |
| Rurality | −0.180 | −0.357 | −0.269 | 2000 | 3,113 | −0.461 | −0.357 | −0.565 |
| Education | 0.638 | 0.474 | 0.556 | 2024 | 3,103 | 0.663 | 0.722 | 0.604 |
| Income | 0.434 | 0.173 | 0.304 | 2024 | 3,103 | 0.397 | 0.504 | 0.290 |
| Race and ethnicity | −0.285 | −0.707 | −0.496 | 2024 | 3,103 | −0.574 | −0.440 | −0.707 |
| Age | −0.118 | −0.272 | −0.195 | 2024 | 3,103 | −0.310 | −0.214 | −0.406 |
| Rurality | −0.462 | −0.592 | −0.527 | 2024 | 3,103 | −0.653 | −0.564 | −0.741 |

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: The difference in the last column is its own estimate; its 95% interval from a bootstrap over states is in the text.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/weighting_gap.json

### Table 8. The correlation depends on the measure within an axis in 2024, from −0.03 for the share without a high school diploma to +0.66 for college share, vote-weighted

Correlation of fifteen county measures, grouped by the five axes, with the county two-party margin in 2024, vote-weighted and county-equal

| Axis | Measure | Weighting | Correlation | Interval low | Interval high | Counties |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Education | Bachelor's degree or more | Vote-weighted | +0.66 | +0.60 | +0.72 | 3,103 |
| Education | Bachelor's degree or more | County-equal | +0.56 | +0.47 | +0.64 | 3,103 |
| Education | No high school diploma | Vote-weighted | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.14 | 3,103 |
| Education | No high school diploma | County-equal | −0.15 | −0.26 | −0.04 | 3,103 |
| Income | Median household income | Vote-weighted | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.50 | 3,103 |
| Income | Median household income | County-equal | +0.30 | +0.17 | +0.43 | 3,103 |
| Income | Per capita income | Vote-weighted | +0.55 | +0.47 | +0.64 | 3,103 |
| Income | Per capita income | County-equal | +0.39 | +0.27 | +0.51 | 3,103 |
| Income | Poverty rate | Vote-weighted | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.09 | 3,103 |
| Income | Poverty rate | County-equal | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.20 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | Vote-weighted | −0.57 | −0.71 | −0.44 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic white share | County-equal | −0.50 | −0.71 | −0.28 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic Black share | Vote-weighted | +0.39 | +0.24 | +0.54 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic Black share | County-equal | +0.44 | +0.35 | +0.52 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Hispanic share | Vote-weighted | +0.24 | +0.10 | +0.38 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Hispanic share | County-equal | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.30 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic Asian share | Vote-weighted | +0.53 | +0.36 | +0.69 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Non-Hispanic Asian share | County-equal | +0.45 | +0.31 | +0.58 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Foreign-born share | Vote-weighted | +0.54 | +0.36 | +0.72 | 3,103 |
| Race and ethnicity | Foreign-born share | County-equal | +0.37 | +0.22 | +0.53 | 3,103 |
| Age | Median age | Vote-weighted | −0.31 | −0.41 | −0.21 | 3,103 |
| Age | Median age | County-equal | −0.20 | −0.27 | −0.12 | 3,103 |
| Age | Share aged 65 and over | Vote-weighted | −0.34 | −0.45 | −0.23 | 3,103 |
| Age | Share aged 65 and over | County-equal | −0.20 | −0.28 | −0.12 | 3,103 |
| Age | Share under 30 | Vote-weighted | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.25 | 3,103 |
| Age | Share under 30 | County-equal | +0.13 | +0.05 | +0.21 | 3,103 |
| Rurality | Rural share | Vote-weighted | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.56 | 3,103 |
| Rurality | Rural share | County-equal | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.46 | 3,103 |
| Rurality | Rural-urban continuum code | Vote-weighted | −0.51 | −0.58 | −0.44 | 3,103 |
| Rurality | Rural-urban continuum code | County-equal | −0.41 | −0.49 | −0.34 | 3,103 |

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals use errors clustered by state, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county characteristics, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: Poverty rate is listed with income because it measures the same dimension from the other end; the chapters on hardship take it up. The rural-urban continuum code runs from the most urban class to the most rural class, in the 2023 edition.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020; MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), full counts of votes; county characteristics from the decennial census and American Community Survey, interpolated to election years; estimates weighted by two-party votes or counting each county once, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/measures_2024.json

### Table 9. In 2024 the mean gap between a county's margin and the five-axis fit is −10.8 points in the Census South and +6.7 points in the rest of the country, vote-weighted

County two-party margin minus the margin fitted by a regression on the five axes weighted by two-party votes, 2000 and 2024, in percentage points of margin

| Election | Position | County | Margin minus fit (points) | Margin (points) | Fitted margin (points) | Two-party votes |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Forsyth, GA | −52.9 | −33.5 | +19.4 | 136,790 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Williamson, TN | −52.1 | −32.9 | +19.2 | 142,257 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Shelby, AL | −47.4 | −41.3 | +6.1 | 112,753 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Comal, TX | −46.8 | −46.0 | +0.9 | 102,436 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Miami-Dade, FL | −46.8 | −11.5 | +35.3 | 1,085,945 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Lubbock, TX | −46.2 | −39.9 | +6.2 | 123,695 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Montgomery, TX | −45.2 | −45.9 | −0.8 | 304,241 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps below the fit | Collin, TX | −45.0 | −11.4 | +33.5 | 501,649 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Clayton, GA | +52.2 | +69.6 | +17.4 | 111,080 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Sonoma, CA | +48.2 | +47.8 | −0.4 | 243,026 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Prince George's, MD | +48.1 | +77.0 | +29.0 | 392,046 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Santa Cruz, CA | +46.8 | +56.6 | +9.8 | 128,976 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Baltimore City, MD | +42.7 | +74.9 | +32.2 | 223,093 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Multnomah, OR | +42.5 | +64.3 | +21.8 | 396,686 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | Marin, CA | +40.1 | +65.7 | +25.6 | 140,206 |
| 2024 | Largest gaps above the fit | St. Louis, MN | +36.8 | +14.0 | −22.8 | 116,400 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Collin, TX | −49.0 | −49.9 | −0.9 | 171,063 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Montgomery, TX | −40.5 | −55.2 | −14.7 | 103,886 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Utah, UT | −39.5 | −71.3 | −31.8 | 114,700 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Greenville, SC | −37.0 | −35.8 | +1.2 | 136,524 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Sarasota, FL | −36.9 | −6.6 | +30.4 | 155,986 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Fort Bend, TX | −36.9 | −21.5 | +15.4 | 121,136 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Lee, FL | −35.9 | −18.1 | +17.7 | 179,722 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps below the fit | Denton, TX | −35.7 | −43.6 | −7.9 | 142,315 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Bristol, MA | +45.7 | +36.9 | −8.8 | 199,173 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Bronx, NY | +42.9 | +76.0 | +33.1 | 302,046 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Philadelphia, PA | +40.6 | +63.3 | +22.7 | 550,141 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Kings, NY | +40.0 | +67.5 | +27.5 | 594,122 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Suffolk, MA | +38.3 | +55.4 | +17.1 | 199,329 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Baltimore City, MD | +37.5 | +70.8 | +33.3 | 185,915 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | District Of Columbia , DC | +36.8 | +81.0 | +44.2 | 189,996 |
| 2000 | Largest gaps above the fit | Providence, RI | +36.6 | +39.8 | +3.1 | 203,847 |

The map draws every unit from https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/residual_map.json; the rows above are the subset the figure file carries.

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so the map draws no intervals. The map is drawn on 2020 county boundaries and a county with no fit draws as no data. Alaska is not in the sample, because it reports returns by election district; the Connecticut counties draw in 2000 and not in 2024, because they lack 2024 census measures; Kansas City is added to Jackson County, Missouri in 2024.

Note: The data table lists the eight counties at each end of the gap for each year, among counties above the vote cut named in the caption, not the whole map.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000 and 2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes; fitted values from a regression weighted by two-party votes on county characteristics from the census and American Community Survey

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/residual_map.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (219), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| age_old_cut | 65 | years of age | age at which the older-adult share starts | residents | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| age_young_cut | 30 | years of age | age below which the younger share counts | residents | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| b_age_2000_w | +0.29 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median age in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 0.10 to 0.49 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_age_2024_w | +0.04 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median age in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.13 to 0.21 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_edu_2000_u | +0.03 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.09 to 0.14 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_edu_2000_w | +0.25 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 0.11 to 0.39 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_edu_2024_u | +0.56 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.64 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_edu_2024_w | +0.71 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.63 to 0.79 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_inc_2000_w | −0.17 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.28 to −0.06 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_inc_2024_u | −0.14 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.23 to −0.06 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_inc_2024_w | −0.26 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.40 to −0.11 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_race_2000_w | −0.50 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.65 to −0.35 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_race_2016_w | −0.59 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI −0.70 to −0.48 | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_race_2024_w | −0.43 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.57 to −0.29 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_rural_2000_w | −0.25 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on rural share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.38 to −0.11 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| b_rural_2024_w | −0.12 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on rural share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.25 to 0.01 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_age_2024_w | +0.08 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median age in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_edu_2024_u | +0.54 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.60 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_edu_2024_w | +0.73 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.65 to 0.80 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_inc_2024_w | −0.40 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on median household income in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.48 to −0.33 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_race_2000_u | −0.68 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.76 to −0.60 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_race_2000_w | −0.77 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.90 to −0.64 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_race_2024_u | −0.73 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.84 to −0.61 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_race_2024_w | −0.62 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.76 to −0.48 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| bfe_rural_2024_w | −0.09 | standardized regression coefficient, standard deviations of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on rural share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.14 to −0.04 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| big_cut | 250,000 | two-party votes | vote cut for a large county | counties | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| big_n_2000 | 76 | counties | count of counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| big_n_2024 | 135 | counties | count of counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| big_share_2000 | 35% | share of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| big_share_2024 | 46% | share of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties with 250,000 or more two-party votes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| chr_edu_2000_2024_w | +0.38 | change in correlation | change between the two elections in the correlation of the county margin with college share (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.31 to 0.47 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chr_race_2000_2024_w | −0.05 | change in correlation | change between the two elections in the correlation of the county margin with non-Hispanic white share (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.13 to 0.03 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chr_rural_2000_2024_w | −0.19 | change in correlation | change between the two elections in the correlation of the county margin with rural share (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.27 to −0.11 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chs_explained_2000_2024_w | +10.3 | percentage points of margin | change between the two elections in the weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 7.0 to 13.8 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chs_resid_2000_2024_w | −2.0 | percentage points of margin | change between the two elections in the weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −3.6 to −0.7 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chv_five_2000_2016_w | +31.3 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2016 | 95% CI 22.0 to 39.1 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chv_five_2000_2024_w | +27.8 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 18.9 to 37.3 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chv_five_2012_2016_w | +19.9 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 | 95% CI 15.3 to 23.6 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chv_five_2016_2024_w | −3.6 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change between the two elections in the R-squared of the five-axis regression (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | 95% CI −7.1 to 1.5 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| chv_state_2000_2024_w | −6.7 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change between the two elections in the R-squared of a baseline for each state alone (the same states are drawn for both elections) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −16.8 to 4.2 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| ct_votes_2020 | 1.16% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in the Connecticut counties left out for a missing census measure | two-party votes in counties with returns, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election |   | 8 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| ct_votes_2024 | 1.14% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in the Connecticut counties left out for a missing census measure | two-party votes in counties with returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 8 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| first_edu_2020_u | 34% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_edu_2020_w | 17% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_edu_2024_u | 59% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_edu_2024_w | 60% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_2000_w | 87% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2000 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_2016_u | 85% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2016 presidential election |   | 3,111 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_2016_w | 79% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2016 presidential election |   | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_2020_u | 52% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_2020_w | 23% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_hi_u | 98% | share of resamples | highest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation | resamples of states | 2000 to 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_hi_w | 93% | share of resamples | highest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation | resamples of states | 2000 to 2016 |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_lo_u | 70% | share of resamples | lowest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation | resamples of states | 2000 to 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_race_lo_w | 76% | share of resamples | lowest over the elections of 2000 to 2016 of the share of resamples in which the white share has the largest absolute correlation | resamples of states | 2000 to 2016 |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_rural_2020_u | 14% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| first_rural_2020_w | 60% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| first_rural_2024_w | 38% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which rural share has the largest absolute correlation with the county margin of the five axes | 2,000 resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| gap_2024_u | +0.03 | difference in absolute correlation | absolute correlation of the first-ranked axis minus that of the second-ranked axis | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.10 |   | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| gap_2024_w | +0.01 | difference in absolute correlation | absolute correlation of the first-ranked axis minus that of the second-ranked axis | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.05 to 0.09 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| jffirst_edu_2024_w | 90% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression with state baselines | resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jffirst_race_2000_w | 100% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression with state baselines | resamples of states | 2000 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jffirst_race_2024_u | 98% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression with state baselines | resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_edu_2004_w | 51% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2004 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_edu_2008_w | 55% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2008 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_edu_2016_w | 65% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2016 presidential election |   | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_edu_2020_u | 56% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_edu_2024_u | 77% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_edu_2024_w | 100% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which college share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_race_2000_w | 97% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2000 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_race_2004_w | 49% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2004 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_race_2008_w | 45% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2008 presidential election |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| jfirst_race_2012_w | 73% | share of resamples | share of resamples in which non-Hispanic white share has the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression | resamples of states | 2012 presidential election |   | 3,112 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| m_age29_w | +0.12 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with share under 30 | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.00 to 0.25 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_age65_w | −0.34 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with share aged 65 and over | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.45 to −0.23 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_age_w | −0.31 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with median age | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.41 to −0.21 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_asian_w | +0.52 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic Asian share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.36 to 0.69 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_ba_w | +0.66 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with bachelor's degree or more | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.72 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_black_w | +0.39 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic Black share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.24 to 0.54 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_foreign_w | +0.54 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with foreign-born share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.37 to 0.72 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_hisp_u | +0.11 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with hispanic share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.09 to 0.30 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_hisp_w | +0.24 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with hispanic share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.10 to 0.38 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_inc_w | +0.40 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with median household income | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.29 to 0.50 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_lesshs_w | −0.03 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with no high school diploma | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.20 to 0.14 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_pci_w | +0.55 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with per capita income | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.47 to 0.64 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_pov_w | −0.03 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with poverty rate | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.14 to 0.09 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_rucc_w | −0.51 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural-urban continuum code | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.58 to −0.44 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_rural_w | −0.65 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.74 to −0.56 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| m_white_w | −0.57 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.71 to −0.44 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| n_max | 3,113 | counties | largest number of counties in an election's sample | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_min | 3,103 | counties | smallest number of counties in an election's sample | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_reps | 2,000 | bootstrap replicates | number of bootstrap replicates | resamples of states | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pg_race_inc_2024_w | +0.18 | difference in absolute correlation | absolute correlation of non-Hispanic white share minus that of median household income | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.05 to 0.34 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| pts_edu_2000_w | +6.7 | percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 3.0 to 10.5 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| pts_edu_2024_w | +23.4 | percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on college share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 20.7 to 26.1 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| pts_race_2000_w | −13.4 | percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −17.4 to −9.4 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| pts_race_2024_w | −14.1 | percentage points of margin per standard deviation of the axis | coefficient on non-Hispanic white share in a regression of the county margin on the five axes, in points of margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −18.7 to −9.6 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r2_2000_u | 20% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 11% to 33% | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2000_w | 41% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 30% to 56% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2012_u | 33% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 presidential election | 95% CI 24% to 49% | 3,112 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2012_w | 52% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 presidential election | 95% CI 44% to 63% | 3,112 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2016_u | 58% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI 49% to 70% | 3,111 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2016_w | 72% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI 67% to 79% | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2020_w | 72% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 95% CI 67% to 80% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2024_u | 59% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 49% to 71% | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2_2024_w | 69% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 63% to 78% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2cf_2024_w | 61% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared in 2024 if the left-over spread of the five-axis regression stayed at its 2000 value | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 53% to 71% |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2cfgap_2024_w | 7.2 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | part of the 2000 to 2024 rise in R-squared that comes from the narrower left-over spread | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.5 to 13.3 |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2d_2000 | +21.2 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression minus the county-equal R-squared | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 9.5 to 31.9 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2d_2024 | +9.9 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression minus the county-equal R-squared | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.8 to 18.5 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2dfe_2000 | +13.4 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression with state baselines minus the county-equal R-squared | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 5.3 to 20.9 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2dfe_2024 | +4.7 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | vote-weighted R-squared of the five-axis regression with state baselines minus the county-equal R-squared | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 1.2 to 8.6 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2fe_2000_u | 61% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 54% to 67% | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2fe_2000_w | 74% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 65% to 82% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2fe_2024_u | 82% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 79% to 85% | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2fe_2024_w | 87% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 84% to 90% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2fu_2000_w | 49% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes plus the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share (nine measures) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 39% to 63% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2fu_2024_w | 71% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes plus the Black, Hispanic and Asian shares and the foreign-born share (nine measures) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 67% to 79% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2st_2000_w | 34% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on a baseline for each state alone | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 24% to 43% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2st_2024_w | 27% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on a baseline for each state alone | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 19% to 34% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2wi_2000_w | 61% | share of the within-state variance of the county margin | share of the within-state variance of the county margin that the five axes reproduce | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 50% to 72% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r2wi_2024_w | 82% | share of the within-state variance of the county margin | share of the within-state variance of the county margin that the five axes reproduce | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 77% to 88% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| r_age_2000_w | −0.08 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with median age | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.19 to 0.04 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_age_2024_w | −0.31 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with median age | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.41 to −0.21 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_edu_2000_u | +0.10 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.19 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_edu_2000_w | +0.28 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 0.18 to 0.38 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_edu_2020_u | +0.53 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 95% CI 0.45 to 0.61 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_edu_2020_w | +0.64 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.70 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_edu_2024_u | +0.56 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.47 to 0.64 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_edu_2024_w | +0.66 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with college share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.72 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_inc_2000_w | +0.10 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with median household income | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.01 to 0.20 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_inc_2024_w | +0.40 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with median household income | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.29 to 0.50 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_race_2000_w | −0.52 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.68 to −0.36 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_race_2016_w | −0.68 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI −0.79 to −0.57 | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_race_2020_u | −0.53 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 95% CI −0.73 to −0.33 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_race_2020_w | −0.63 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 95% CI −0.75 to −0.51 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_race_2024_w | −0.57 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with non-Hispanic white share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.71 to −0.44 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_rural_2000_u | −0.27 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.36 to −0.18 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_rural_2000_w | −0.46 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.56 to −0.36 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_rural_2020_w | −0.67 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election | 95% CI −0.76 to −0.58 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| r_rural_2024_w | −0.65 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.74 to −0.56 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% normal interval with errors clustered by state. |
| rc_rucc_2016_w | −0.51 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with the rural-urban continuum code (edition 2013) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election |   | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rc_rucc_2020_w | −0.52 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with the rural-urban continuum code (edition 2023) | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rc_rural_2016_w | −0.65 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share of residents | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election |   | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rc_rural_2020_w | −0.67 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | correlation of the county two-party margin with rural share of residents | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcm_12086_2024 | −11.5 | percentage points of margin | county two-party margin, Democratic positive | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| rcp_12086_2024 | +35.3 | percentage points of margin | county margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_01117_2024 | −47.4 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_06097_2024 | +48.2 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_12086_2024 | −46.8 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_13063_2024 | +52.2 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_13117_2024 | −52.9 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_24033_2024 | +48.1 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rcr_47187_2024 | −52.1 | percentage points of margin | county margin minus the margin fitted by the vote-weighted five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_band | 20 | percentage points of margin | distance from the fitted margin used to flag a county | counties | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| res_big_2000 | 35% | share of two-party votes | share of two-party votes in counties whose margin is more than 20 points from the five-axis fit | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_big_2024 | 25% | share of two-party votes | share of two-party votes in counties whose margin is more than 20 points from the five-axis fit | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_cut | 100,000 | two-party votes | vote cut for naming counties | counties | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| res_rest_2000 | +6.0 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties outside the Census South | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election |   | 1,690 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_rest_2024 | +6.7 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties outside the Census South | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 1,681 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_sd_2000 | 20.4 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted standard deviation of the five-axis residual | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_sd_2024 | 18.4 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted standard deviation of the five-axis residual | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_south_2000 | −11.5 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties in the Census South | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election |   | 1,423 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_south_2024 | −10.8 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression among counties in the Census South | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 1,422 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_tx_2024 | −21.7 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression in TX counties | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| res_vt_2024 | +42.6 | percentage points of margin | vote-weighted mean residual of the five-axis regression in VT counties | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| rural_mean_p_2012 | 19.4% | percent of residents | mean rural share of residents across counties, weighted by county population | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 presidential election |   | 3,112 | county population | County demographics panel |   |
| rural_mean_p_2020 | 20.0% | percent of residents | mean rural share of residents across counties, weighted by county population | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | county population | County demographics panel |   |
| rural_mean_u_2012 | 59.6% | percent of residents | mean rural share of residents across counties, each county counted once | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 presidential election |   | 3,112 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| rural_mean_u_2020 | 64.0% | percent of residents | mean rural share of residents across counties, each county counted once | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2020 presidential election |   | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel |   |
| sde_2000_u | 10.9 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 8.2 to 14.3 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sde_2000_w | 16.9 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 13.4 to 20.9 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sde_2024_u | 24.3 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 21.3 to 27.8 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sde_2024_w | 27.2 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin fitted by the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 24.7 to 30.4 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdr_2000_u | 22.0 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 19.2 to 23.9 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdr_2000_w | 20.4 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 18.0 to 21.9 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdr_2024_u | 20.4 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 16.9 to 22.6 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdr_2024_w | 18.4 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 15.5 to 19.7 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdrf_2000_w | 13.5 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 11.7 to 14.7 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdrf_2024_w | 12.0 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the margin left over after the five axes and a baseline for each state | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 10.4 to 12.9 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdt_2000_u | 24.5 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the county margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 22.3 to 26.3 | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdt_2000_w | 26.5 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the county margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 24.0 to 28.6 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdt_2016_w | 35.9 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the county margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI 33.3 to 37.9 | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdt_2024_u | 31.7 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the county margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 29.5 to 33.7 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdt_2024_w | 32.8 | percentage points of margin | weighted standard deviation of the county margin | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 30.6 to 35.0 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sdx_edu_2024_w | 11.8 | percentage points of adults | vote-weighted standard deviation of college share across counties | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| sdx_race_2024_w | 21.1 | percentage points of residents | vote-weighted standard deviation of non-Hispanic white share across counties | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| uniq_age_2024_w | 0.1 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when median age is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.0 to 2.6 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_edu_2000_w | 2.4 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when college share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 0.5 to 5.4 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_edu_2024_u | 12.8 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when college share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 8.6 to 16.9 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_edu_2024_w | 16.9 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when college share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 12.1 to 22.8 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_inc_2024_w | 2.7 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when median household income is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.8 to 6.9 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_race_2000_w | 15.1 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when non-Hispanic white share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 6.9 to 23.8 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_race_2024_u | 17.6 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when non-Hispanic white share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 8.0 to 31.2 | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_race_2024_w | 11.0 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when non-Hispanic white share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 5.1 to 17.5 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| uniq_rural_2024_w | 0.7 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | drop in R-squared when rural share is removed from the five-axis regression | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.0 to 2.8 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v00chg_2012_2016_w | +19.3 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 |   | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| v00chg_2016_2024_w | −4.5 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   | 3,110 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| v00r2_2000_u | 20% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 11% to 33% | 3,113 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v00r2_2000_w | 41% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 30% to 56% | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v00r2_2016_w | 72% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI 65% to 80% | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v00r2_2024_u | 58% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 48% to 72% | 3,110 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v00r2_2024_w | 68% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2000 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 61% to 77% | 3,110 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v24chg_2012_2016_w | +20.9 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 |   | 3,104 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| v24chg_2016_2024_w | −2.0 | percentage points of the variance of the county margin | change in the R-squared of the five-axis regression with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| v24r2_2000_u | 18% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 11% to 29% | 3,102 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v24r2_2000_w | 35% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 27% to 48% | 3,102 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v24r2_2016_w | 71% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2016 presidential election | 95% CI 65% to 78% | 3,104 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v24r2_2024_u | 59% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 49% to 71% | 3,103 | none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| v24r2_2024_w | 69% | share of the variance of the county margin | R-squared of the county margin on the five axes, with the 2024 census measures used for every election | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 63% to 78% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_age_2000 | +0.09 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of median age with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.03 to 0.20 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_age_2024 | −0.11 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of median age with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.20 to −0.01 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_edu_2000 | +0.18 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of college share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI 0.09 to 0.26 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_edu_2024 | +0.11 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of college share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI 0.02 to 0.20 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_inc_2000 | +0.08 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of median household income with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.05 to 0.19 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_inc_2024 | +0.09 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of median household income with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.22 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_race_2024 | −0.08 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of non-Hispanic white share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.17 to 0.04 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_rural_2000 | −0.19 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of rural share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2000 presidential election | 95% CI −0.26 to −0.12 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wd_rural_2024 | −0.13 | difference in correlation | vote-weighted correlation of rural share with the county margin minus the county-equal correlation | counties with returns and a complete set of census measures, Alaska excluded | 2024 presidential election | 95% CI −0.20 to −0.05 |   | two-party votes minus none (each county counts once) | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |

## Definitions

- County two-party margin: The Democratic vote minus the Republican vote, divided by the sum of the two, so a positive value is a Democratic lead. Votes for other candidates are left out.
- Clustered standard errors: Standard errors that allow answers within the same group, such as the same county or the same week, to be related. They are wider than ordinary errors when members of a group resemble each other.
- Fixed effects: Regression terms that give each group, such as each country or each year, its own baseline. The other coefficients then compare respondents within the same group.
- Ecological inference: Drawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.

## Methods

Sample: presidential returns for the 7 elections from 2000 to 2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), from the repaired county file whose 2024 totals are corrected for 173 counties in South Carolina, Wisconsin and West Virginia. The 41 Alaska rows (election districts) are dropped before any calculation; in these years no other row lacks a FIPS code, a vote count or two-party votes. Kansas City, Missouri is a separate row (FIPS 2938000) in 2024 only; its votes are added to Jackson County (29095), which holds them in 2000 to 2020 and whose census measures cover the whole county. The 2024 returns carry Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota, under its former code 46113, and it is recoded to 46102 to match the census panel. An election's sample is the set of counties with two-party votes and a complete set of the census measures below (3,103 to 3,113 counties); every comparison in an election uses that same set, and the sample is not harmonized across boundary changes. Counties that lack a census measure are left out: 10 county rows in 2020 and 9 in 2024. Among them are the eight old Connecticut counties, for which the census panel has no 2020 or 2024 values (it fills the new planning-region rows only at the 2024 anchor); they hold 1.16% and 1.14% of the two-party votes in 2020 and 2024. The rest are single counties with a missing income or rural-urban code, among them Clifton Forge city, Virginia, in 2000 (no rural-urban code, which every county in the sample needs) and Oglala Lakota County in 2012 and 2016. Outcome: the county two-party margin, 100 times the Democratic votes minus the Republican votes over their sum, so a positive value favors the Democrats. Axes and measures: education is the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more; income is median household income in 2024 dollars; race and ethnicity is the non-Hispanic white share of residents; age is median age; rurality is the share of residents living in rural areas. The nine-measure model adds the non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian shares and the foreign-born share to the five axes. The 2024 comparison of measures adds the share without a high school diploma, per capita income, the poverty rate, the share aged 65 and over, the share under 30 and the rural-urban continuum code (1 most urban to 9 most rural). Census measures come from the county demographics panel, which interpolates between anchors: 2000 is the decennial census long form, 2004 and 2008 interpolate between it and the American Community Survey release for 2012, 2012, 2016 and 2020 are midpoints of adjacent releases, and 2024 is the 2024 release; so only 2000 and 2024 are close to a direct measurement and the other years carry interpolation and sampling error that no interval includes. Rural share is anchored to the decennial censuses and has one value for 2020 and 2024; the census definition of rural changed with the 2020 census, and the mean rural share in the sample (county-equal, and weighted by county population) is reported for 2012, 2016 and 2020. The rural-urban continuum code uses the 2013 edition through 2016 and the 2023 edition for 2020 and 2024. Weights: two-party votes in the election (vote-weighted) or one per county (county-equal); both are computed for every statistic. Coefficients: weighted least squares of the standardized margin on standardized axes, standardized with the weighted mean and standard deviation of the weighting used, so a one-variable coefficient equals the correlation; the joint regression uses the other four axes, and the state-baseline regression adds an indicator for each state and the District of Columbia. R-squared is the weighted share of the variance of the margin reproduced by the fitted values; the share within states is the R-squared with baselines minus that of baselines alone, over one minus the latter; the unique contribution of an axis is the R-squared of the five-axis regression minus that of the regression without the axis, in points of variance. Spreads are weighted standard deviations of the margin, of the five-axis fitted values and of the residual, with and without state baselines; the 2024 R-squared with the left-over spread held at its 2000 value is one minus the squared ratio of the 2000 left-over spread to the 2024 spread of the margin. Fixed-measure checks: the same statistics with the 2024 census measures, and with the 2000 census measures, used for every election, on the counties that have them. Ranks: the share of resamples in which an axis has the largest absolute correlation (alone), the largest absolute coefficient in the five-axis regression, or the largest absolute coefficient with state baselines; and the difference in absolute size between two axes, with its interval. Intervals: normal 95% intervals with errors clustered by state (49 to 50 clusters) for correlations and coefficients; 95% percentile intervals from a bootstrap over whole states for R-squared, spreads, unique contributions, differences between two statistics, rank shares and rank differences (2,000 replicates, seed 12345; a state drawn twice counts as two clusters; the weightings share draws; changes between elections draw the same states for both elections). Returns are full counts, so the intervals show dependence on which states are in the set and not sampling error of the vote, and they do not include the sampling error of the census measures. Map: the residual of the vote-weighted five-axis regression, estimated separately for 2000 and 2024, in points of margin; the Census South is the Census Bureau's South region (16 states and the District of Columbia). Suppression: none, since all figures are county-level counts or fits.

## What these data cannot show

- Every statistic above is a property of counties.
- A pattern across places can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them, a limit known as ecological inference.
- Robinson [6] showed that a correlation across areas can have the opposite sign from the correlation across individuals.
- The characteristics describe residents, including residents who are not citizens or not of voting age, and the margin describes voters.
- A sign such as income's negative coefficient is a feature of one regression among counties and says nothing about how households of different incomes voted.
- The five axes are five chosen measures.
- The ranking changes with the measure within an axis (Table 8), and the axes omit religion, occupation, density, the age of housing and every characteristic that is not in the county panel.
- A standardized coefficient depends on the spread of the axis across counties, which differs between the weightings and between elections, so a coefficient that rises can reflect a change in spread as well as a steeper slope.
- The R-squared values are in-sample fits of linear regressions and not forecasts.
- State baselines absorb every difference between states, including differences in composition that sit at the state level, so the within-state results describe counties compared inside states and not the effect of removing state context.
- The census measures are decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years.
- Only 2000 and 2024 are close to a direct measurement, and the elections between are blends of adjacent releases, so the measures for those years carry sampling error and interpolation error that no interval includes.
- Rural share is anchored to the decennial censuses and has one value for 2020 and 2024.
- The county set is not harmonized across boundary changes, a few small counties lack measures in some years, and the counties are the units of the returns and not of any community.
- The intervals show dependence on which states are in the set.
- They are not sampling error of the vote, which is a full count, and the bootstrap intervals for differences between statistics treat the states as the only source of variation.
- The chapter has no data on turnout by group, on candidates or on campaigns, so it cannot say why the order of the axes changed after 2016 or why the fit improved.

## References

1. Cameron, A. Colin; Miller, Douglas L. (2015). A Practitioner's Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference. Journal of Human Resources 50(2): 317-372. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317
2. Zingher, Joshua N. (2022). TRENDS: Diploma divide: Educational attainment and the realignment of the American electorate. Political Research Quarterly 75(2): 263-277. https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129221079862
3. Scala, Dante J.; Johnson, Kenneth M. (2017). Political Polarization along the Rural-Urban Continuum? The Geography of the Presidential Vote, 2000-2016. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 672(1): 162-184. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716217712696
4. Gelman, Andrew; Shor, Boris; Bafumi, Joseph; Park, David (2008). Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What's the Matter with Connecticut?. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 2(4): 345-367. https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00006026
5. Solon, Gary; Haider, Steven J.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2015). What Are We Weighting For?. Journal of Human Resources 50(2): 301-316. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.301
6. Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. https://doi.org/10.2307/2087176

## Provenance

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Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| data/county/county_demographics_2000_2024.parquet | 4,334,220 | 45cdaf63128da1aa0c12e1196d7e60835697d7432ab9bff1acd2f5559fdb5130 | 90293a64867bf37645b53eaf5ab343f3b284c0d2c3fc3b8e0f38d32f1649fee4 |
| data/county/pres_county_1868_2024.parquet | 6,295,675 | bec11c7a0cb5d4180bbd6809d048bc892dd00dfcdde527fa4da871b1dd3f835f | b2a4f000f2eea72d09af8939555289e924875cca40cd95ec8869104cd575bed7 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | f188c9446d53ad519e7bb0475cafb4d1392b5a78dd8075e8699990a74b5628b2 |
| figures/comparisons.json | 64f3089e242b2c3341345e1ca1abc59171d7b7bb1c0c54111f555599d20ab549 |
| figures/corr_by_year.json | c23ab9dbf72458967c9d3ffab0dbab846065e9d8c19e92b6c44af6f040cb1149 |
| figures/joint_by_year.json | aa9afd12ad53565197c38df0bb691121767c94cefbcf3d22201b896fb203dbb2 |
| figures/measures_2024.json | d3db866cf5abcf04a66382a829e4698981112727db5c1c4c898ceefdc4418d2f |
| figures/r2_by_year.json | 9673228c9670b060bbad25be79ebcb8bc9cb6c796efb6dc0607d76b89613394f |
| figures/rank_ladder.json | f8ac8a627ca6a8b37f55eee2ea47e09c042f221402ff01a55f6ecc4281bbd239 |
| figures/residual_map.json | 1e24e02e6ca728a1d8d8e1fe47e6f709b004b5f692d017e47c2bc67c41da10f9 |
| figures/spread_by_year.json | 5326b48e0d17682547430250ec49c3d9c1b7c1a5b299fcd7eddce00212785564 |
| figures/weighting_gap.json | d8ad0c453435deb7ac01d692fe13f7dda059eac1790e3f465af94d8e60d4af23 |
| meta.json | 8fef78ae87a98f2efd4e40f93e789adfae85913c4c5de05efb5f55cecd351be1 |
| public/data/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/residual_map.json | 5ba456efc43f908dc8950083183153828480e3fc982246ef86932461b46c1dcf |
| refs.json | 349d51d4e94d916899b00d6795c91c84727e07a60072d34cddaff59dacebf031 |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "comparisons" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/comparisons.json
- Table 2, figure "corr_by_year" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/corr_by_year.json
- Table 3, figure "rank_ladder" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/rank_ladder.json
- Table 4, figure "joint_by_year" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/joint_by_year.json
- Table 5, figure "r2_by_year" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/r2_by_year.json
- Table 6, figure "spread_by_year" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/spread_by_year.json
- Table 7, figure "weighting_gap" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/weighting_gap.json
- Table 8, figure "measures_2024" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/measures_2024.json
- Table 9, figure "residual_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/figures/residual_map.json
- Payload of "residual_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/five-axes-of-the-county-vote/residual_map.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt