# Economic and cultural dimensions: report

Chapter 1.2 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Economic and cultural dimensions
- Chapter: 1.2 (Part I, Labels and beliefs; Labels, sorting and partisan feeling)
- Question: Are economic and cultural conservatism one dimension or two, and how has their correlation changed?
- Dek: Among American adults, the correlation between an index of economic conservatism and an index of cultural conservatism rose from +0.10 in the 1984 ANES to +0.51 in 2024.
- Grain: individuals
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-09-30
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - ANES Cumulative Data File. ANES Time Series Cumulative Data File, studies 1984 to 2024: jobs (VCF0809), services and spending (VCF0839), health insurance (VCF0806), abortion (VCF0838), gay and lesbian thermometer (VCF0232), traditional values (VCF0853), party identification (VCF0301), liberal-conservative self-placement (VCF0803); years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the interview-mode comparison
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026economicandculturaldimensions

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026economicandculturaldimensions,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Economic and cultural dimensions},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | +0.10 | 95% CI 0.05 to 0.15 | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | r_1984 |
| weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | +0.51 | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.55 | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | r_2024 |
| weighted least squares slope of the standardized cultural index on the standardized economic index, which equals the correlation (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 0.51 | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.55 | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | slope_2024 |
| weighted correlation net of seven-point party identification (Fisher z interval, effective n less six party dummies) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | +0.23 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.27 | 4,373 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | r7_2024 |
| count of studies | studies with both indices | 1984-2024 | 15 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_studies |
| count of respondents in the analysis sample | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984-2024 | 33,257 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_respondents |

## Findings

Among American adults, the correlation between an index of economic conservatism and an index of cultural conservatism was +0.10 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.15) in the 1984 American National Election Studies (ANES) and +0.51 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.55) in 2024. In a linear fit, adults one standard deviation more conservative on the economic index were on average 0.51 standard deviations more conservative on the cultural index in 2024. Part of the correlation is between the parties, and among adults with the same seven-point party identification it is +0.23 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.27) in 2024. Web interviewing began in 2012, and the rise after 2012 appears in both interview modes.

The ANES asked three economic and three cultural questions in most studies from 1984 to 2024, which gives 15 studies and 33,257 respondents with both indices. The indices are built in advance from fixed items, so the chapter measures how closely two given attitudes go together and not how many dimensions the public holds. This chapter follows the correlation across those studies, asks how much of it remains within party identification and after allowing for measurement error, compares how closely each index goes with liberal-conservative self-placement, and restates the correlation as the share of adults on opposite sides of the medians. The Chapter 1.3, Left and right across countries (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/left-and-right-across-countries) chapter asks a related question across countries.

### Earlier work on two dimensions

Studies of the American public describe a structure that differs from the one the parties offer. Feldman and Johnston found that economic and social ideology are the minimum needed to account for domestic policy preferences [1], and Treier and Hillygus found that many adults hold liberal preferences on one dimension and conservative preferences on the other [2]. Carmines, Ensley and Wagner report that the policy preferences of party elites lie on one dimension while those of citizens lie on two, and that adults whose preferences do not match either party's package are more likely to shift party allegiance [3]. Roll-call voting in Congress is described well by one main dimension [4]. A cross-national study of mass publics that includes the United States found that a positive correlation between cultural and economic conservatism was uncommon across nations and that a negative correlation was more common [5].

### How the indices are built

Each index averages up to three ANES answers. Every answer is converted to a z-score, its distance from the item's average in standard deviations, and oriented so that a higher value is more conservative. A respondent needs at least two of an index's three answers. Table 1 lists the items, their scales and the direction used, including a feeling thermometer rating of gays and lesbians. (Note: In the cleaned ANES file the thermometer's top category, which covers a range of degrees near the top of the scale, is stored as the top value. The methods note gives the detail.) The direction of each item is read from the value labels of the ANES Cumulative Data File, was not chosen from a correlation with self-placement or with the other index, and the two indices share no answers. The items were not asked in every study, and 4 studies have an index with only two components; those studies are shaded in the trend figures. (Note: An index is a respondent's average z-score over the items answered, and the correlation does not depend on its unit. The party means and the self-placement regression use the index re-standardized over all respondents in the analysis sample, and the cross-pressure band and the 2024 cells use the standard deviation of the index within one study. Each figure says which.)

Table 1. Each index averages three ANES items, and a higher value always marks the conservative end

### The correlation rose from 2008 to 2020

The correlation was +0.10 in 1984, in a study where the cultural index has only two components and its items agree less closely than in later studies (see the section on measurement error). From 1992 through 2008 the estimates stayed between +0.12 in 2000 and +0.23 in 2008. They then rose to +0.52 in 2020. The intervals for 2008 and 2012 overlap, and so do those for 2012 and 2016, so the rise is best read across the whole period from 2008 to 2020, without a claim about any single step. The 2020 interval lies above the 2008 interval. The 2024 estimate of +0.51 contains the 2020 value, so the series has not risen further since 2020. Table 2 shows every study. Correlation intervals in this chapter are 95% confidence intervals that treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample, which leaves out the ANES sampling design and can move an interval either way. (Note: Each interval uses Fisher's z transformation [6] on the Kish effective sample size [7].)

Table 2. The correlation between economic and cultural conservatism was at most +0.23 through 2008 and rose to +0.52 by 2020

Two checks support the rise. Adults who answered every item give +0.11 in 1988 and +0.56 in 2024, and the six-item view of the figure shows the same rise. Interview mode is the second check. Web interviews began in 2012, and the step from +0.23 in 2008 to +0.32 in 2012 appears only in the web sample (+0.24 face-to-face, +0.37 web). The step therefore cannot be told apart from the change of mode, and the rise is better dated from 2012. In each mode the 2024 correlation is above the 2012 correlation, so the rise after 2012 is present in both, and the pairs for 2016 and 2024 are in the caption of the mode view. The 2020 study has no mode weights, and the step from 2016 to 2020 cannot be split by mode.

### Part of the correlation is between the parties

Comparing adults with the same party identification removes differences between the parties. Both indices are compared within each of the seven ANES party categories, which run from strong Democrat to strong Republican and keep leaners apart from weak partisans. The correlation of what remains is +0.23 in 2024 against the observed +0.51. The same comparison gives +0.04 (95% CI −0.01 to 0.10) in 1984, an interval that includes zero, and +0.08 in 2008. A three-category control (Democrat, independent and Republican, with leaners counted as partisans) gives +0.24 in 2024, close to the seven-point figure. A correlation remains within party identification, and the estimate rose from 2008 to 2024.

Part of the observed correlation sits between the parties, which moved apart on both indices. Table 3 plots the mean of each index for Democrats and Republicans, with leaners counted with their party, and for all adults. The Republican minus Democratic gap on the economic index grew from +0.69 in 1984 to +1.29 in 2024, and on the cultural index from +0.30 to +1.27, in standard deviations of the index over all respondents from 1984 to 2024. The lines are group means for each study on one fixed scale, so they compare groups between studies and do not follow individuals.

The cultural panel is less steady in 1984, 1986 and 1990, the studies in which the cultural index has only two components. The item mix changes there (1984 has no traditional-values item, and 1986 and 1990 have no thermometer), and a two-item index is noisier. Built from abortion and the thermometer alone, the items asked in every study except 1986 and 1990, the cultural gap is +0.28 in 1984 and +1.11 in 2024. The Republican mean went from +0.61 to +0.31 and the Democratic mean from +0.33 to −0.81, so the widening and the fall in both party means do not depend on the third item.

Table 3. The Republican minus Democratic gap grew from +0.69 to +1.29 on the economic index and from +0.30 to +1.27 on the cultural index

The movement was mostly on the Democratic side. Democrats went from −0.24 to −0.80 on the economic index and from +0.33 to −0.93 on the cultural index. Republicans went from +0.45 to +0.49 on the economic index and from +0.63 to +0.33 on the cultural index, so the Republican mean on the cultural index also fell. The mean of all adults on the cultural index fell as well, from +0.48 to −0.33, so part of each party's cultural change is a shift of the whole sample and the gap measures the distance between the parties. When two groups differ on both indices, a correlation appears in the pooled sample even if the indices are unrelated inside each group. That is party sorting for these two indices, and the Chapter 1.1, Party and ideology (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology) chapter follows it for ideology more broadly. Comparing within party identification is a descriptive comparison. Adults may take positions from the party they support, or support the party that matches their positions, and these data cannot separate the two.

### Correcting for measurement error

Indices built from a few answers measure their topic with error, and error in either index lowers the observed correlation. The standard summary of how closely the items of one index agree is Cronbach's alpha [8], which runs from zero, when the items are unrelated, to one, when they agree perfectly. Table 4 gives alpha for each study. The economic index went from 0.60 in 1984 to a peak of 0.83 in 2020 and 0.79 in 2024, and the cultural index from 0.44 in 1988, the first study in which the cultural index has three components, to 0.69 in 2024. The cultural index has the lower alpha in 14 of the 15 studies, the exception being 1998, and each index has its lowest alpha in a study where it has only two components. Alpha is computed only on adults who answered every item of an index. The correlation also uses adults with two of three answers, who are measured less reliably than alpha suggests. On the economic index they are 58.3% of the 1984 sample, because the health-insurance item was answered by only part of that sample, and 15.4% of the 2024 sample.

Table 4. Items in each index agree more in recent studies, and the cultural items agree less than the economic items in 14 of 15 studies

Alpha rises when the items of an index measure the same thing with less noise, and it also rises when opinions on the items become more consistent across adults. A rise in alpha can therefore come from a fall in error, from a rise in the consistency of opinion, or from both, and the corrected series below inherits that mix.

If the two kinds of conservatism were one dimension measured without error, the correlation would be one. Dividing the observed correlation by the square root of the product of the two alphas gives the correlation the indices would show if their items were error-free, a correction proposed by Spearman [9]. In 2024 it gives +0.69, at which the two indices share 48.1% of their variance, against +0.35 in 2008 and +0.18 in 1988. The corrected view of Table 2 draws it only where both alphas are at least 0.4, which leaves out 1984, 1986 and 1990, studies in which the cultural index has only two components and a lower alpha. The corrected series rises as well and lies above the observed series in every study where it is drawn, and even the corrected indices leave the rest of the variation in each attitude unshared.

### Self-placement follows the economic and cultural indices about equally

The seven-point liberal-conservative scale, on which adults place themselves, is a label and not a bundle of positions. Regressing self-placement on both indices at once shows how closely each goes with the label when the other is held fixed. For 1984 to 1996, adults one standard deviation apart on the economic index differ by 0.50 points on the scale, and adults one standard deviation apart on the cultural index by 0.53 points, with the other index held fixed. For 2012 to 2024 the coefficients are 0.66 and 0.67. The cultural minus economic difference is +0.02 (95% CI −0.03 to 0.08) in the early period and +0.01 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.06) in the recent one, both intervals include zero, and neither extends beyond 0.08 points in either direction (Table 5). Both coefficients are larger in the recent period, and the intervals for the two periods do not overlap. The studies from 1998 to 2008 are left out so that the two periods do not touch. The data do not separate the two indices in how closely each goes with the label.

Two cautions apply to that reading. An index with lower alpha carries more measurement error, which lowers its coefficient, and the cultural index has the lower alpha. Equal coefficients are therefore consistent with a cultural attitude that goes with the label somewhat more closely than the economic attitude does. Alpha also rose for both indices between the two periods, so part of the rise in both coefficients may be less measurement error, as the section on measurement error describes. (Note: The regression includes a fixed effect for each study and uses HC3 robust standard errors.) The Planned, The conservative label (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-conservative-label; planned) chapter separates the label from policy preferences.

Table 5. Self-placed conservatism follows the economic and cultural indices about equally, and both coefficients grew

### Adults on opposite sides of the medians

A correlation can be restated as a count of people. Splitting each index at its weighted median within a study puts equal numbers of adults on each side of each index. An adult is cross-pressured when right of the median on one index and left of it on the other, that is, conservative on one index and liberal on the other. That share was 46.2% (95% CI 43.8% to 48.6%) in 1984 and 30.0% (95% CI 28.0% to 31.9%) in 2024 (Table 6), and it moves with the correlation.

For two bell-shaped indices with the observed correlation, the share on opposite sides of the medians would be 46.8% in 1984 and 32.8% in 2024. (Note: A bell-shaped (normal) pair with a given correlation is the reference case in which the correlation alone fixes how the two indices are spread jointly. The methods note gives the formula.) The observed share is within 3.3 points of the implied value in every study, so a median split gives little evidence beyond the correlation itself. The difference has the same sign from 2008. The observed share is 2.1 to 3.3 points below the implied share in each study from 2008, and in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 the implied share lies above the observed 95% interval. More adults sit on the same side of both medians than the correlation implies, which is the same feature as the excess in the corner cells shown below.

Table 6. The share of adults on opposite sides of the medians fell from 46.2% to 30.0% and stays within 3.3 points of the share the correlation implies

A median split also counts as cross-pressured an adult who is barely across a median, which overstates how many hold strong views in opposite directions. A stricter definition puts a tolerance band around each median: an adult is strongly cross-pressured when the adult is at least 0.5 standard deviations right of the median on one index and at least that far left of it on the other. That share was 18.2% in 1984 and 6.6% in 2024, and a narrower band and a wider band give the same fall (see the notes under the figure). In 2024 70.0% of adults are on the same side of both medians. A median split also makes the two split groups equal in size, and the two consistent groups equal in size, so shares from the split cannot show whether cross-pressure runs more toward economic left with cultural right or the reverse.

#### In 2024, more adults sit in the corners than expected

Table 7 divides the 4,387 adults with both indices in 2024 into cells 0.5 standard deviations wide on each index, measured from each index's median, with open-ended outer bins that collect every adult beyond 1.0 standard deviations. The corner cell for adults more than 1.0 standard deviations left of the median on both indices holds 8.2% of adults, and the corner cell for adults at least that far right on both holds 8.5%. Two bell-shaped indices with the observed correlation would put 6.4% of adults in each corner, and the 95% intervals of both observed corners lie above that reference. The reference uses the same open bins, so the bin width does not explain the difference.

Table 7. In 2024 the two corner cells with both indices far left or far right hold more adults than the correlation implies

The off-diagonal corners hold adults far to opposite sides of the two medians. The corner for economic left and cultural right holds 1.4% of adults, against 0.3% in the normal reference. 2 cells have fewer than 30 respondents and are left blank, and both lie where the cultural index is far left and the economic index is right of the median. Together they hold 0.5% of adults, less than the economic-left, cultural-right corner alone, so adults far to opposite sides are more often economic left with cultural right than the reverse in 2024.

The normal reference does not separate the way the two indices go together from the shape of each index. The indices average a few bounded, discrete answers, so their own distributions are not exactly bell-shaped, and the excess in the corners may come from that shape as much as from the joint pattern. The excess describes one study and is not evidence of polarization. The Planned, Class, church and the two axes (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/class-church-and-the-two-axes; planned) chapter takes up how income, education and church attendance sort the two axes.

### What these data cannot show

The correlation is between two indices built in advance from a fixed set of items, so these data cannot show how many dimensions the public holds. A factor model or an item-response model fitted to a wider set of questions could find a different number, and a different choice of items would change the level of the correlation. The chapter also leaves out issues that fall outside both indices, such as immigration and race, which may form a third dimension.

The corrected correlation assumes that the errors in the two indices are unrelated to each other and that alpha measures reliability, which holds only if the items of an index measure the same attitude. It is an upper bound for the correlation between the underlying attitudes only if errors are also unrelated across the items of one index. A shared response format or response style would raise alpha, make the correction too small and remove the bound, and the corrected series inherits the ambiguity in what a rise in alpha means. The interval for the corrected value, +0.69 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.74) in 2024, comes from resampling respondents within a study and is wide in the early studies, where the indices have two components and low alpha.

Each study interviews different adults, so the series cannot show whether individuals' attitudes moved together or whether the population changed as cohorts replaced one another. The comparison within party identification uses party identification measured in the same interview and shaped by the same attitudes, so it does not measure an effect of party. Interview mode changed over the period, and the interview-mode comparison covers only 4 studies. The intervals are model based and ignore the ANES clustering and stratification. The 2002 study has no cultural index, and 4 studies have two components in one or both indices.

A comparison with the Cooperative Election Study is not included. Its economic index contains only health-care questions and its cultural index mixes abortion, guns, immigration and the environment, so a higher correlation there would confound item content with survey. A matched comparison needs an index built from the same kinds of questions in both surveys.

A rising correlation fits an account in which the public has moved toward the alignment that the parties present, and the party gaps in Table 3 are consistent with it, but nothing in these data tests that account.

## Tables

### Table 1. Each index averages three ANES items, and a higher value always marks the conservative end

Items in the economic and cultural conservatism indices: ANES variable, scale as fielded, direction used and studies that asked the item, 1984 to 2024

| Index | Item | ANES variable | Scale as fielded | Direction used | Studies asking it | Not asked in |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- |
| Economic | Government guarantee of jobs and a good standard of living | VCF0809 | 1 = government sees to jobs and living standards; 7 = each person on their own | Kept: a higher code is economic right | 15 | none |
| Economic | Government services and spending | VCF0839 | 1 = many fewer services, reduce spending; 7 = many more services, increase spending | Reversed: a lower code (fewer services) is economic right | 15 | none |
| Economic | Government or private health insurance | VCF0806 | 1 = government insurance plan; 7 = private insurance plan | Kept: a higher code is economic right | 12 | 1986, 1990, 1998 |
| Cultural | Legal status of abortion | VCF0838 | 1 = never permitted by law; 4 = always a matter of personal choice | Reversed: a lower code (more restriction) is cultural right | 15 | none |
| Cultural | Feeling thermometer toward gays and lesbians | VCF0232 | 0 = coldest feeling; 100 = warmest feeling | Reversed: a lower code (colder) is cultural right | 13 | 1986, 1990 |
| Cultural | Should be more emphasis on traditional values (variable label in the Cumulative Data File) | VCF0853 | 1 = agree strongly; 5 = disagree strongly | Reversed: a lower code (agreement) is cultural right | 14 | 1984 |

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1984 to 2024; item wording and coding only, no weights needed

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/items_coding.json

### Table 2. The correlation between economic and cultural conservatism was at most +0.23 through 2008 and rose to +0.52 by 2020

Weighted correlation between the economic and cultural conservatism indices by ANES study, 1984 to 2024, adults with at least two of three items on each index; 95% intervals

| Study | Series | Correlation | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n | Economic items | Cultural items |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1984 | As observed | 0.102 | 0.052 | 0.152 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 3 | 2 |
| 1986 | As observed | 0.069 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 914 | 914 | 2 | 2 |
| 1988 | As observed | 0.095 | 0.045 | 0.144 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | As observed | 0.033 | −0.040 | 0.105 | 729 | 729 | 2 | 2 |
| 1992 | As observed | 0.156 | 0.113 | 0.198 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | As observed | 0.198 | 0.146 | 0.248 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | As observed | 0.193 | 0.136 | 0.248 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | As observed | 0.162 | 0.097 | 0.225 | 1,055 | 892 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | As observed | 0.117 | 0.041 | 0.192 | 811 | 652 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | As observed | 0.180 | 0.113 | 0.244 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | As observed | 0.228 | 0.152 | 0.301 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | As observed | 0.325 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | As observed | 0.391 | 0.356 | 0.425 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | As observed | 0.517 | 0.493 | 0.540 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | As observed | 0.514 | 0.482 | 0.546 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 | 3 |
| 1984 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.045 | −0.006 | 0.095 | 1,499 | 1,499 | 3 | 2 |
| 1986 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.075 | 0.010 | 0.140 | 907 | 907 | 2 | 2 |
| 1988 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.034 | −0.016 | 0.084 | 1,542 | 1,542 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | Same party ID (7-pt) | −0.011 | −0.084 | 0.062 | 727 | 727 | 2 | 2 |
| 1992 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.066 | 0.022 | 0.110 | 1,997 | 1,988 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.107 | 0.054 | 0.159 | 1,652 | 1,352 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.072 | 0.014 | 0.130 | 1,408 | 1,135 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.090 | 0.024 | 0.155 | 1,047 | 886 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.031 | −0.046 | 0.109 | 806 | 648 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.030 | −0.039 | 0.098 | 993 | 822 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.082 | 0.002 | 0.160 | 944 | 615 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.106 | 0.069 | 0.142 | 5,189 | 2,872 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.155 | 0.115 | 0.195 | 3,314 | 2,288 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.227 | 0.197 | 0.258 | 6,725 | 3,689 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | Same party ID (7-pt) | 0.227 | 0.186 | 0.268 | 4,373 | 2,051 | 3 | 3 |
| 1984 | As observed | 0.102 | 0.052 | 0.152 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 3 | 2 |
| 1986 | As observed | 0.069 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 914 | 914 | 2 | 2 |
| 1988 | As observed | 0.095 | 0.045 | 0.144 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | As observed | 0.033 | −0.040 | 0.105 | 729 | 729 | 2 | 2 |
| 1992 | As observed | 0.156 | 0.113 | 0.198 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | As observed | 0.198 | 0.146 | 0.248 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | As observed | 0.193 | 0.136 | 0.248 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | As observed | 0.162 | 0.097 | 0.225 | 1,055 | 892 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | As observed | 0.117 | 0.041 | 0.192 | 811 | 652 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | As observed | 0.180 | 0.113 | 0.244 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | As observed | 0.228 | 0.152 | 0.301 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | As observed | 0.325 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | As observed | 0.391 | 0.356 | 0.425 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | As observed | 0.517 | 0.493 | 0.540 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | As observed | 0.514 | 0.482 | 0.546 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 | 3 |
| 1984 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.051 | 0.000 | 0.101 | 1,499 | 1,499 | 3 | 2 |
| 1986 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.068 | 0.003 | 0.133 | 907 | 907 | 2 | 2 |
| 1988 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.099 | 1,542 | 1,542 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.003 | −0.070 | 0.076 | 727 | 727 | 2 | 2 |
| 1992 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.070 | 0.026 | 0.114 | 1,997 | 1,988 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.126 | 0.073 | 0.178 | 1,652 | 1,352 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.094 | 0.036 | 0.151 | 1,408 | 1,135 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.101 | 0.036 | 0.166 | 1,047 | 886 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.039 | −0.038 | 0.116 | 806 | 648 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.050 | −0.019 | 0.118 | 993 | 822 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.104 | 0.025 | 0.181 | 944 | 615 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.127 | 0.091 | 0.163 | 5,189 | 2,872 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.180 | 0.140 | 0.219 | 3,314 | 2,288 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.241 | 0.211 | 0.272 | 6,725 | 3,689 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | Same party ID (3 cat.) | 0.242 | 0.201 | 0.282 | 4,373 | 2,051 | 3 | 3 |
| 1984 | As observed | 0.102 | 0.052 | 0.152 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 3 | 2 |
| 1986 | As observed | 0.069 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 914 | 914 | 2 | 2 |
| 1988 | As observed | 0.095 | 0.045 | 0.144 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | As observed | 0.033 | −0.040 | 0.105 | 729 | 729 | 2 | 2 |
| 1992 | As observed | 0.156 | 0.113 | 0.198 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | As observed | 0.198 | 0.146 | 0.248 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | As observed | 0.193 | 0.136 | 0.248 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | As observed | 0.162 | 0.097 | 0.225 | 1,055 | 892 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | As observed | 0.117 | 0.041 | 0.192 | 811 | 652 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | As observed | 0.180 | 0.113 | 0.244 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | As observed | 0.228 | 0.152 | 0.301 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | As observed | 0.325 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | As observed | 0.391 | 0.356 | 0.425 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | As observed | 0.517 | 0.493 | 0.540 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | As observed | 0.514 | 0.482 | 0.546 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 | 3 |
| 1988 | Reliability-corrected | 0.181 | 0.083 | 0.277 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 | 3 |
| 1992 | Reliability-corrected | 0.273 | 0.201 | 0.349 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | Reliability-corrected | 0.332 | 0.253 | 0.415 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | Reliability-corrected | 0.316 | 0.229 | 0.408 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | Reliability-corrected | 0.317 | 0.191 | 0.454 | 1,055 | 892 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | Reliability-corrected | 0.213 | 0.062 | 0.364 | 811 | 652 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | Reliability-corrected | 0.276 | 0.180 | 0.371 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | Reliability-corrected | 0.349 | 0.241 | 0.461 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Reliability-corrected | 0.471 | 0.427 | 0.516 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | Reliability-corrected | 0.550 | 0.496 | 0.602 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | Reliability-corrected | 0.680 | 0.648 | 0.710 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | Reliability-corrected | 0.693 | 0.653 | 0.738 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 | 3 |
| 1984 | As observed | 0.102 | 0.052 | 0.152 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 3 | 2 |
| 1986 | As observed | 0.069 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 914 | 914 | 2 | 2 |
| 1988 | As observed | 0.095 | 0.045 | 0.144 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | As observed | 0.033 | −0.040 | 0.105 | 729 | 729 | 2 | 2 |
| 1992 | As observed | 0.156 | 0.113 | 0.198 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | As observed | 0.198 | 0.146 | 0.248 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | As observed | 0.193 | 0.136 | 0.248 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 | As observed | 0.162 | 0.097 | 0.225 | 1,055 | 892 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | As observed | 0.117 | 0.041 | 0.192 | 811 | 652 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | As observed | 0.180 | 0.113 | 0.244 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | As observed | 0.228 | 0.152 | 0.301 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | As observed | 0.325 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | As observed | 0.391 | 0.356 | 0.425 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | As observed | 0.517 | 0.493 | 0.540 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | As observed | 0.514 | 0.482 | 0.546 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 | 3 |
| 1988 | All six items answered | 0.111 | 0.052 | 0.169 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 3 | 3 |
| 1992 | All six items answered | 0.203 | 0.154 | 0.251 | 1,513 | 1,507 | 3 | 3 |
| 1994 | All six items answered | 0.243 | 0.187 | 0.297 | 1,384 | 1,132 | 3 | 3 |
| 1996 | All six items answered | 0.221 | 0.158 | 0.281 | 1,132 | 923 | 3 | 3 |
| 2000 | All six items answered | 0.154 | 0.068 | 0.237 | 634 | 512 | 3 | 3 |
| 2004 | All six items answered | 0.209 | 0.135 | 0.280 | 803 | 664 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | All six items answered | 0.261 | 0.176 | 0.342 | 740 | 488 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | All six items answered | 0.370 | 0.335 | 0.403 | 4,422 | 2,472 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | All six items answered | 0.435 | 0.398 | 0.471 | 2,719 | 1,894 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | All six items answered | 0.563 | 0.538 | 0.587 | 5,374 | 2,991 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | All six items answered | 0.560 | 0.526 | 0.592 | 3,516 | 1,635 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | All respondents | 0.228 | 0.152 | 0.301 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | All respondents | 0.325 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | All respondents | 0.391 | 0.356 | 0.425 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | All respondents | 0.514 | 0.482 | 0.546 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 | 3 |
| 2008 | Face-to-face | 0.228 | 0.152 | 0.301 | 954 | 620 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Face-to-face | 0.236 | 0.174 | 0.296 | 1,769 | 926 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | Face-to-face | 0.385 | 0.317 | 0.448 | 988 | 649 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | Face-to-face | 0.542 | 0.473 | 0.605 | 874 | 443 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Web | 0.368 | 0.329 | 0.406 | 3,434 | 1,963 | 3 | 3 |
| 2016 | Web | 0.396 | 0.354 | 0.436 | 2,337 | 1,648 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | Web | 0.473 | 0.421 | 0.523 | 1,589 | 895 | 3 | 3 |

Views: Observed and same 7-point party ID (basis = party7); Same 3-category party ID (basis = party3); Corrected for error (basis = corrected); Six items answered (basis = six); By interview mode (basis = mode).

Note: Shaded studies have only two items on one or both indices: the cultural index in 1984, both indices in 1986 and 1990, and the economic index in 1998.

Note: The 2002 study has no cultural index, since only the gay and lesbian thermometer was asked, and is omitted.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1984 to 2024; weighted (VCF0009z), and weight_ftf and weight_web in the mode view; intervals are model based

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/corr_trend.json

### Table 3. The Republican minus Democratic gap grew from +0.69 to +1.29 on the economic index and from +0.30 to +1.27 on the cultural index

Mean of each index by party identification, leaners counted with their party, and for all adults, in standard deviations of the pooled 1984 to 2024 sample, by ANES study; 95% intervals

| Study | Index | Group | Mean | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents | Effective n | Items in the index |
| ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1984 | Economic index | All adults | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 3 |
| 1986 | Economic index | All adults | 0.01 | −0.05 | 0.07 | 914 | 914 | 2 |
| 1988 | Economic index | All adults | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 |
| 1990 | Economic index | All adults | −0.05 | −0.12 | 0.01 | 729 | 729 | 2 |
| 1992 | Economic index | All adults | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 |
| 1994 | Economic index | All adults | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 |
| 1996 | Economic index | All adults | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 |
| 1998 | Economic index | All adults | −0.07 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 1,055 | 892 | 2 |
| 2000 | Economic index | All adults | 0.01 | −0.06 | 0.07 | 811 | 652 | 3 |
| 2004 | Economic index | All adults | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.05 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 |
| 2008 | Economic index | All adults | −0.06 | −0.14 | 0.01 | 954 | 620 | 3 |
| 2012 | Economic index | All adults | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 |
| 2016 | Economic index | All adults | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 |
| 2020 | Economic index | All adults | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.08 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 |
| 2024 | Economic index | All adults | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.16 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 |
| 1984 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.24 | −0.30 | −0.18 | 699 | 699 | 3 |
| 1986 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.26 | −0.34 | −0.17 | 459 | 459 | 2 |
| 1988 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.26 | −0.32 | −0.19 | 731 | 731 | 3 |
| 1990 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.32 | −0.41 | −0.22 | 368 | 368 | 2 |
| 1992 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.35 | −0.40 | −0.31 | 975 | 971 | 3 |
| 1994 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.15 | 768 | 621 | 3 |
| 1996 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.20 | −0.26 | −0.14 | 734 | 593 | 3 |
| 1998 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.33 | −0.42 | −0.25 | 544 | 464 | 2 |
| 2000 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.27 | −0.36 | −0.19 | 414 | 331 | 3 |
| 2004 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.50 | −0.58 | −0.43 | 476 | 389 | 3 |
| 2008 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.51 | −0.59 | −0.42 | 553 | 338 | 3 |
| 2012 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.30 | 2,722 | 1,397 | 3 |
| 2016 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.45 | −0.50 | −0.40 | 1,540 | 1,039 | 3 |
| 2020 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.85 | −0.89 | −0.81 | 3,209 | 1,672 | 3 |
| 2024 | Economic index | Democrats | −0.80 | −0.85 | −0.75 | 2,196 | 1,022 | 3 |
| 1984 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 633 | 633 | 3 |
| 1986 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.49 | 334 | 334 | 2 |
| 1988 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.43 | 0.37 | 0.49 | 664 | 664 | 3 |
| 1990 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 291 | 291 | 2 |
| 1992 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 790 | 787 | 3 |
| 1994 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 726 | 605 | 3 |
| 1996 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.64 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 561 | 454 | 3 |
| 1998 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 395 | 333 | 2 |
| 2000 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 304 | 254 | 3 |
| 2004 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.44 | 425 | 361 | 3 |
| 2008 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 282 | 214 | 3 |
| 2012 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.90 | 1,802 | 1,097 | 3 |
| 2016 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 1,389 | 983 | 3 |
| 2020 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.76 | 2,813 | 1,642 | 3 |
| 2024 | Economic index | Republicans | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.55 | 1,942 | 920 | 3 |
| 1984 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.53 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 2 |
| 1986 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 914 | 914 | 2 |
| 1988 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 3 |
| 1990 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 729 | 729 | 2 |
| 1992 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 2,005 | 1,996 | 3 |
| 1994 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 1,659 | 1,358 | 3 |
| 1996 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 1,413 | 1,139 | 3 |
| 1998 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 1,055 | 892 | 3 |
| 2000 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.36 | 811 | 652 | 3 |
| 2004 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 1,006 | 834 | 3 |
| 2008 | Cultural index | All adults | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 954 | 620 | 3 |
| 2012 | Cultural index | All adults | −0.01 | −0.05 | 0.02 | 5,203 | 2,880 | 3 |
| 2016 | Cultural index | All adults | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.19 | 3,325 | 2,297 | 3 |
| 2020 | Cultural index | All adults | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.29 | 6,737 | 3,696 | 3 |
| 2024 | Cultural index | All adults | −0.33 | −0.38 | −0.29 | 4,387 | 2,059 | 3 |
| 1984 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 699 | 699 | 2 |
| 1986 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 459 | 459 | 2 |
| 1988 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 731 | 731 | 3 |
| 1990 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 368 | 368 | 2 |
| 1992 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 975 | 971 | 3 |
| 1994 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 768 | 621 | 3 |
| 1996 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 734 | 593 | 3 |
| 1998 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.03 | −0.05 | 0.12 | 544 | 464 | 3 |
| 2000 | Cultural index | Democrats | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 414 | 331 | 3 |
| 2004 | Cultural index | Democrats | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | 476 | 389 | 3 |
| 2008 | Cultural index | Democrats | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.07 | 553 | 338 | 3 |
| 2012 | Cultural index | Democrats | −0.41 | −0.46 | −0.37 | 2,722 | 1,397 | 3 |
| 2016 | Cultural index | Democrats | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.63 | 1,540 | 1,039 | 3 |
| 2020 | Cultural index | Democrats | −0.89 | −0.93 | −0.85 | 3,209 | 1,672 | 3 |
| 2024 | Cultural index | Democrats | −0.93 | −0.99 | −0.88 | 2,196 | 1,022 | 3 |
| 1984 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 633 | 633 | 2 |
| 1986 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 334 | 334 | 2 |
| 1988 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 664 | 664 | 3 |
| 1990 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 291 | 291 | 2 |
| 1992 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 790 | 787 | 3 |
| 1994 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 726 | 605 | 3 |
| 1996 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 561 | 454 | 3 |
| 1998 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 395 | 333 | 3 |
| 2000 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 304 | 254 | 3 |
| 2004 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 425 | 361 | 3 |
| 2008 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 282 | 214 | 3 |
| 2012 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 1,802 | 1,097 | 3 |
| 2016 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 1,389 | 983 | 3 |
| 2020 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.30 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 2,813 | 1,642 | 3 |
| 2024 | Cultural index | Republicans | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1,942 | 920 | 3 |

Note: A party-by-study cell needs at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of 100; pure independents fall below that in most studies and are counted only in the line for all adults.

Note: Shaded studies have only two items on one or both indices: the cultural index in 1984, both indices in 1986 and 1990, and the economic index in 1998. The cultural panel is noisier in those studies because an index of two items has lower alpha.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1984 to 2024; weighted (VCF0009z); intervals are model based

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/party_positions.json

### Table 4. Items in each index agree more in recent studies, and the cultural items agree less than the economic items in 14 of 15 studies

Standardized Cronbach alpha of each index by ANES study, adults who answered every item of the index that year, 1984 to 2024; 95% intervals from resampling respondents

| Study | Index | Alpha | Interval low | Interval high | Respondents with every item | Items in the index |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1984 | Economic index | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.66 | 629 | 3 |
| 1986 | Economic index | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 914 | 2 |
| 1988 | Economic index | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 1,171 | 3 |
| 1990 | Economic index | 0.47 | 0.37 | 0.56 | 729 | 2 |
| 1992 | Economic index | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 1,588 | 3 |
| 1994 | Economic index | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 1,451 | 3 |
| 1996 | Economic index | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 1,185 | 3 |
| 1998 | Economic index | 0.47 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 1,055 | 2 |
| 2000 | Economic index | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.66 | 675 | 3 |
| 2004 | Economic index | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 832 | 3 |
| 2008 | Economic index | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.77 | 765 | 3 |
| 2012 | Economic index | 0.76 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 4,486 | 3 |
| 2016 | Economic index | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 2,772 | 3 |
| 2020 | Economic index | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 5,691 | 3 |
| 2024 | Economic index | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 3,743 | 3 |
| 1984 | Cultural index | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.41 | 1,508 | 2 |
| 1986 | Cultural index | 0.37 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 914 | 2 |
| 1988 | Cultural index | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 1,462 | 3 |
| 1990 | Cultural index | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 729 | 2 |
| 1992 | Cultural index | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 1,900 | 3 |
| 1994 | Cultural index | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 1,582 | 3 |
| 1996 | Cultural index | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 1,346 | 3 |
| 1998 | Cultural index | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 989 | 3 |
| 2000 | Cultural index | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 759 | 3 |
| 2004 | Cultural index | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 971 | 3 |
| 2008 | Cultural index | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 924 | 3 |
| 2012 | Cultural index | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.65 | 5,118 | 3 |
| 2016 | Cultural index | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 3,251 | 3 |
| 2020 | Cultural index | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 6,354 | 3 |
| 2024 | Cultural index | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 4,109 | 3 |

Note: Alpha uses adults who answered every item of the index that year.

Note: Shaded studies have only two items on one or both indices: the cultural index in 1984, both indices in 1986 and 1990, and the economic index in 1998.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1984 to 2024; weighted (VCF0009z); intervals are model based

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/reliability.json

### Table 5. Self-placed conservatism follows the economic and cultural indices about equally, and both coefficients grew

Coefficient on each index in a regression of 7-point liberal-conservative self-placement on both indices (in pooled standard deviations) with study fixed effects, 1984 to 1996 and 2012 to 2024; 95% intervals

| early | early_hi | early_lo | index | n_early | n_recent | recent | recent_hi | recent_lo |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0.502 | 0.536 | 0.467 | Economic index | 7,815 | 17,452 | 0.664 | 0.690 | 0.638 |
| 0.526 | 0.558 | 0.495 | Cultural index | 7,815 | 17,452 | 0.673 | 0.698 | 0.647 |

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1984 to 1996 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (VCF0009z); HC3 intervals

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/selfplacement.json

### Table 6. The share of adults on opposite sides of the medians fell from 46.2% to 30.0% and stays within 3.3 points of the share the correlation implies

Weighted share of adults by ANES study, 1984 to 2024; 95% intervals

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n | series | year |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 48.62 | 43.82 | 46.22 | 1,508 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1984 |
| 50.19 | 44.14 | 47.17 | 914 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1986 |
| 49.48 | 44.54 | 47.01 | 1,551 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1988 |
| 54.07 | 47.22 | 50.65 | 729 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1990 |
| 46.19 | 41.84 | 44.01 | 2,005 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1992 |
| 45.58 | 40.36 | 42.97 | 1,659 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1994 |
| 45.85 | 40.11 | 42.98 | 1,413 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1996 |
| 51.25 | 44.80 | 48.02 | 1,055 | Opposite sides of the medians | 1998 |
| 51.60 | 44.00 | 47.80 | 811 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2000 |
| 48.17 | 41.47 | 44.82 | 1,006 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2004 |
| 44.43 | 36.75 | 40.59 | 954 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2008 |
| 38.80 | 35.35 | 37.08 | 5,203 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2012 |
| 36.76 | 32.92 | 34.84 | 3,325 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2016 |
| 30.84 | 27.95 | 29.39 | 6,737 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2020 |
| 31.92 | 28.00 | 29.96 | 4,387 | Opposite sides of the medians | 2024 |
| 20.12 | 16.22 | 18.17 | 1,508 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1984 |
| 19.74 | 14.83 | 17.29 | 914 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1986 |
| 19.77 | 15.95 | 17.86 | 1,551 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1988 |
| 22.21 | 16.47 | 19.34 | 729 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1990 |
| 18.40 | 15.13 | 16.77 | 2,005 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1992 |
| 16.09 | 12.37 | 14.23 | 1,659 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1994 |
| 15.96 | 11.93 | 13.95 | 1,413 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1996 |
| 16.74 | 12.12 | 14.43 | 1,055 | Strongly cross-pressured | 1998 |
| 19.30 | 13.60 | 16.45 | 811 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2000 |
| 19.11 | 14.06 | 16.58 | 1,006 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2004 |
| 17.02 | 11.51 | 14.27 | 954 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2008 |
| 13.10 | 10.73 | 11.92 | 5,203 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2012 |
| 11.09 | 8.65 | 9.87 | 3,325 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2016 |
| 7.35 | 5.75 | 6.55 | 6,737 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2020 |
| 7.69 | 5.54 | 6.62 | 4,387 | Strongly cross-pressured | 2024 |
| n/a | n/a | 46.75 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1984 |
| n/a | n/a | 47.79 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1986 |
| n/a | n/a | 46.99 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1988 |
| n/a | n/a | 48.96 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1990 |
| n/a | n/a | 45.02 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1992 |
| n/a | n/a | 43.66 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1994 |
| n/a | n/a | 43.83 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1996 |
| n/a | n/a | 44.83 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 1998 |
| n/a | n/a | 46.26 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2000 |
| n/a | n/a | 44.25 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2004 |
| n/a | n/a | 42.69 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2008 |
| n/a | n/a | 39.47 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2012 |
| n/a | n/a | 37.21 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2016 |
| n/a | n/a | 32.71 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2020 |
| n/a | n/a | 32.80 | n/a | Implied by the correlation | 2024 |

Note: Each index is split at its weighted median within the study, so each index divides adults into two equal groups. The implied share is the value for two normally distributed (bell-shaped) indices with the observed correlation. It has no interval because it is a function of the correlation.

Note: Strongly cross-pressured means at least 0.5 standard deviations right of the median on one index and at least that far left of it on the other, in standard deviations of the index within the study. A band of 0.25 gives 27.5% in 1984 and 15.9% in 2024, and a band of 0.75 gives 10.3% and 3.2%.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1984 to 2024; weighted (VCF0009z); intervals are model based

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/cross_pressure.json

### Table 7. In 2024 the two corner cells with both indices far left or far right hold more adults than the correlation implies

Share of adults in each cell (columns: economic index; rows: cultural index), in standard deviations from each index's 2024 median, ANES 2024; 95% intervals

| Cultural index (SD from median) | Economic index (SD from median) | Share of adults (%) | Interval low | Interval high | Normal reference (%) | Observed minus reference (points) | Respondents |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| below −1 | below −1 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | +1.8 | 353 |
| below −1 | −1 to −0.5 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | +1.9 | 244 |
| below −1 | −0.5 to 0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | +0.6 | 148 |
| below −1 | 0 to 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 106 |
| −1 to −0.5 | below −1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | −0.8 | 102 |
| −1 to −0.5 | −1 to −0.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.8 | 112 |
| −1 to −0.5 | −0.5 to 0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 3.4 | −1.3 | 91 |
| −1 to −0.5 | 0 to 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | −0.2 | 121 |
| −1 to −0.5 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | −0.6 | 35 |
| −1 to −0.5 | above 1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | −0.1 | 31 |
| −0.5 to 0 | below −1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | +0.1 | 127 |
| −0.5 to 0 | −1 to −0.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | −0.9 | 105 |
| −0.5 to 0 | −0.5 to 0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | −1.0 | 150 |
| −0.5 to 0 | 0 to 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | −0.6 | 155 |
| −0.5 to 0 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | −0.9 | 71 |
| −0.5 to 0 | above 1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 78 |
| 0 to 0.5 | below −1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +0.4 | 96 |
| 0 to 0.5 | −1 to −0.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 118 |
| 0 to 0.5 | −0.5 to 0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 | −0.7 | 141 |
| 0 to 0.5 | 0 to 0.5 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | +0.5 | 205 |
| 0 to 0.5 | 0.5 to 1 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.4 | +0.7 | 158 |
| 0 to 0.5 | above 1 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +1.1 | 200 |
| 0.5 to 1 | below −1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | +0.1 | 37 |
| 0.5 to 1 | −1 to −0.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | −0.2 | 49 |
| 0.5 to 1 | −0.5 to 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | −0.9 | 64 |
| 0.5 to 1 | 0 to 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.4 | −0.1 | 114 |
| 0.5 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | −1.1 | 93 |
| 0.5 to 1 | above 1 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 213 |
| above 1 | below −1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | +1.1 | 47 |
| above 1 | −1 to −0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 39 |
| above 1 | −0.5 to 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | +0.1 | 70 |
| above 1 | 0 to 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | −0.5 | 116 |
| above 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | +0.1 | 144 |
| above 1 | above 1 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.4 | +2.1 | 416 |

Views: Share of adults, percent; Observed minus normal reference, percentage points.

Note: Columns run from the most liberal economic bin on the left to the most conservative on the right, and rows from the most conservative cultural bin at the top to the most liberal at the bottom. The middle cut of each axis is the median. The outer bins are open-ended and collect every adult beyond 1.0 standard deviations, so they are larger than the interior bins, which are 0.5 standard deviations wide. The normal reference uses the same bins.

Note: Cells with fewer than 30 respondents are left blank: 2 cells, holding 0.5% of adults. Both are in the bottom-right corner region, where the cultural index is far left and the economic index is right of the median.

Note: Bins are measured from the 2024 weighted median of each index, in units of that index's 2024 standard deviation.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 2024; weighted (VCF0009z); intervals are model based

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/joint_2024.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (95), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| all_cult_1984 | +0.48 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index | all adults in the analysis sample, independents without a lean included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.44 to 0.53 | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| all_cult_2024 | −0.33 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index | all adults in the analysis sample, independents without a lean included | 2024 | 95% CI −0.38 to −0.29 | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| alpha_cult_1988 | 0.44 | standardized Cronbach alpha, from 0 to 1 (higher is more consistent) | standardized alpha from the weighted mean inter-item correlation (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults who answered every item of the cultural index | 1988 | 95% CI 0.38 to 0.49 | 1,462 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| alpha_cult_2024 | 0.69 | standardized Cronbach alpha, from 0 to 1 (higher is more consistent) | standardized alpha from the weighted mean inter-item correlation (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults who answered every item of the cultural index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.67 to 0.72 | 4,109 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| alpha_econ_1984 | 0.60 | standardized Cronbach alpha, from 0 to 1 (higher is more consistent) | standardized alpha from the weighted mean inter-item correlation (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults who answered every item of the economic index | 1984 | 95% CI 0.53 to 0.66 | 629 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| alpha_econ_2020 | 0.83 | standardized Cronbach alpha, from 0 to 1 (higher is more consistent) | standardized alpha from the weighted mean inter-item correlation (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults who answered every item of the economic index | 2020 | 95% CI 0.82 to 0.84 | 5,691 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| alpha_econ_2024 | 0.79 | standardized Cronbach alpha, from 0 to 1 (higher is more consistent) | standardized alpha from the weighted mean inter-item correlation (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults who answered every item of the economic index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.77 to 0.81 | 3,743 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| alpha_floor | 0.4 | standardized Cronbach alpha, from 0 to 1 (higher is more consistent) | smallest alpha at which the corrected correlation is shown | indices whose correlation is corrected | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| band_narrow_sd | 0.25 | standard deviations of the index within one study | half-width of the narrow tolerance band used as a sensitivity check | alternative tolerance band around each median | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| band_sd | 0.5 | standard deviations of the index within one study | half-width of the tolerance band | tolerance band around each median | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| band_wide_sd | 0.75 | standard deviations of the index within one study | half-width of the wide tolerance band used as a sensitivity check | alternative tolerance band around each median | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| blank_share | 0.5% | percent of adults | weighted share of adults in the blank cells | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_left_2024 | 8.2% | percent of adults | weighted share of adults in one cell of the joint distribution (Wilson interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 7.1% to 9.5% | 353 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_offdiag_2024 | 1.4% | percent of adults | weighted share of adults below the economic median by more than one standard deviation and above the cultural median by at least one (Wilson interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 1.0% to 2.0% | 47 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| cell_right_2024 | 8.5% | percent of adults | weighted share of adults in one cell of the joint distribution (Wilson interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 7.3% to 9.8% | 416 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| consistent_2024 | 70.0% | percent of adults | weighted share on the same side of both medians | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 68.1% to 72.0% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dem_cult_1984 | +0.33 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index | Democrats, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.27 to 0.40 | 699 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dem_cult_2024 | −0.93 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index | Democrats, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI −0.99 to −0.88 | 2,196 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dem_cult_common_1984 | +0.33 | pooled standard deviations of the two-item cultural index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index built from abortion and the gay and lesbian thermometer only, standardized over 1984-2024 | Democrats, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.27 to 0.40 | 699 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dem_cult_common_2024 | −0.81 | pooled standard deviations of the two-item cultural index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index built from abortion and the gay and lesbian thermometer only, standardized over 1984-2024 | Democrats, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI −0.85 to −0.76 | 2,094 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dem_econ_1984 | −0.24 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the economic index | Democrats, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI −0.30 to −0.18 | 699 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| dem_econ_2024 | −0.80 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the economic index | Democrats, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI −0.85 to −0.75 | 2,196 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| diff_left_2024 | +1.8 | percentage points | weighted share in the corner beyond one standard deviation left of both medians minus the share for two normally distributed indices with the observed correlation (Wilson interval of the observed share less the reference) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.7 to 3.1 | 353 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| diff_offdiag_2024 | +1.1 | percentage points | weighted share in the corner far left on the economic index and far right on the cultural index minus the share for two normally distributed indices with the observed correlation (Wilson interval of the observed share less the reference) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.6 to 1.7 | 47 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| diff_right_2024 | +2.1 | percentage points | weighted share in the corner at least one standard deviation right of both medians minus the share for two normally distributed indices with the observed correlation (Wilson interval of the observed share less the reference) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 1.0 to 3.4 | 416 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_two_items_1984 | 58.3% | percent of adults | weighted share whose economic index averages two answers instead of three | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI 55.8% to 60.8% | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_two_items_2024 | 15.4% | percent of adults | weighted share whose economic index averages two answers instead of three | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 13.8% to 16.9% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_cult_1984 | +0.30 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | difference in weighted means of the cultural index | Republicans minus Democrats, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.20 to 0.40 | 1,332 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_cult_2024 | +1.27 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | difference in weighted means of the cultural index | Republicans minus Democrats, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 1.20 to 1.34 | 4,138 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_cult_common_1984 | +0.28 | pooled standard deviations of the two-item cultural index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | difference in weighted means of the cultural index built from abortion and the gay and lesbian thermometer only, standardized over 1984-2024 | Republicans minus Democrats, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.37 | 1,332 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_cult_common_2024 | +1.11 | pooled standard deviations of the two-item cultural index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | difference in weighted means of the cultural index built from abortion and the gay and lesbian thermometer only, standardized over 1984-2024 | Republicans minus Democrats, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 1.04 to 1.18 | 3,903 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_econ_1984 | +0.69 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | difference in weighted means of the economic index | Republicans minus Democrats, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.78 | 1,332 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gap_econ_2024 | +1.29 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | difference in weighted means of the economic index | Republicans minus Democrats, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 1.21 to 1.36 | 4,138 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_1984 | 46.8% | percent of adults | share on opposite sides of the medians implied by the correlation if the two indices were bivariate normal | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_2024 | 32.8% | percent of adults | share on opposite sides of the medians implied by the correlation if the two indices were bivariate normal | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_below_max | 3.3 | percentage points | largest amount by which the observed split share falls below the share implied by the correlation, over the studies from 2008 | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2008-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_below_min | 2.1 | percentage points | smallest amount by which the observed split share falls below the share implied by the correlation, over the studies from 2008 | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2008-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_corner_2024 | 6.4% | percent of adults | share in each corner cell (both indices beyond one standard deviation on the same side) for two normally distributed indices centred at the medians with the observed correlation | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_gap_max | 3.3 | percentage points | largest absolute difference between the observed split share and the share implied by the correlation, over all studies | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| implied_offdiag_2024 | 0.3% | percent of adults | share in each off-diagonal corner cell (beyond one standard deviation on opposite sides) for two normally distributed indices centred at the medians with the observed correlation | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| min_cell | 30 | respondents | smallest cell that is shown | cells of the 2024 joint distribution | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_2024 | 4,387 | respondents | count of respondents | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_cells_blank | 2 | cells | count of cells left blank for fewer than 30 respondents | cells of the 2024 joint distribution | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_cult_lower | 14 | ANES studies | count of studies in which the cultural index has the lower alpha | studies with both indices | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_mode_studies | 4 | ANES studies | count of studies with weight_ftf and weight_web | studies with mode-specific weights (face-to-face and web) | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_respondents | 33,257 | respondents | count of respondents in the analysis sample | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_studies | 15 | ANES studies | count of studies | studies with both indices | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_two_component_studies | 4 | ANES studies | count of studies in which the economic or the cultural index has only two items | studies in which an index has two components, not three | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| outer_sd | 1.0 | standard deviations of the index within one study | distance from the median at which the open outer bins begin | outermost bins of the 2024 joint distribution | 2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r3_2024 | +0.24 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation net of three-category party identification (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.20 to 0.28 | 4,373 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r6_1988 | +0.11 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation among respondents with every item | adults who answered all six items | 1988 | 95% CI 0.05 to 0.17 | 1,107 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r6_2024 | +0.56 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation among respondents with every item | adults who answered all six items | 2024 | 95% CI 0.53 to 0.59 | 3,516 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r7_1984 | +0.04 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation net of seven-point party identification (Fisher z interval, effective n less six party dummies) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI −0.01 to 0.10 | 1,499 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r7_2008 | +0.08 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation net of seven-point party identification (Fisher z interval, effective n less six party dummies) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2008 | 95% CI 0.00 to 0.16 | 944 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r7_2024 | +0.23 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation net of seven-point party identification (Fisher z interval, effective n less six party dummies) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.27 | 4,373 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_1984 | +0.10 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI 0.05 to 0.15 | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_2000 | +0.12 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2000 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.19 | 811 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_2008 | +0.23 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2008 | 95% CI 0.15 to 0.30 | 954 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_2012 | +0.32 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2012 | 95% CI 0.29 to 0.36 | 5,203 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_2020 | +0.52 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2020 | 95% CI 0.49 to 0.54 | 6,737 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_2024 | +0.51 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted Pearson correlation of the economic and cultural conservatism indices (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.55 | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_ftf_2012 | +0.24 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation with the mode-specific weight | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index, interviewed face-to-face | 2012 | 95% CI 0.17 to 0.30 | 1,769 | weight_ftf or weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_ftf_2016 | +0.38 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation with the mode-specific weight | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index, interviewed face-to-face | 2016 | 95% CI 0.32 to 0.45 | 988 | weight_ftf or weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_ftf_2024 | +0.54 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation with the mode-specific weight | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index, interviewed face-to-face | 2024 | 95% CI 0.47 to 0.60 | 874 | weight_ftf or weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_web_2012 | +0.37 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation with the mode-specific weight | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index, interviewed on the web | 2012 | 95% CI 0.33 to 0.41 | 3,434 | weight_ftf or weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_web_2016 | +0.40 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation with the mode-specific weight | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index, interviewed on the web | 2016 | 95% CI 0.35 to 0.44 | 2,337 | weight_ftf or weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| r_web_2024 | +0.47 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | weighted correlation with the mode-specific weight | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index, interviewed on the web | 2024 | 95% CI 0.42 to 0.52 | 1,589 | weight_ftf or weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rc2_2024 | 48.1% | percent of adults (share of variance) | square of the corrected correlation: the share of variance the two error-free indices would have in common | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 42.7% to 54.5% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rc_1988 | +0.18 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | observed correlation divided by the square root of the product of the two alphas (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1988 | 95% CI 0.08 to 0.28 | 1,551 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rc_2008 | +0.35 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | observed correlation divided by the square root of the product of the two alphas (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2008 | 95% CI 0.24 to 0.46 | 954 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rc_2024 | +0.69 | correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1 | observed correlation divided by the square root of the product of the two alphas (bootstrap percentile interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.65 to 0.74 | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rep_cult_1984 | +0.63 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index | Republicans, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.56 to 0.71 | 633 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rep_cult_2024 | +0.33 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index | Republicans, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.28 to 0.38 | 1,942 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rep_cult_common_1984 | +0.61 | pooled standard deviations of the two-item cultural index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index built from abortion and the gay and lesbian thermometer only, standardized over 1984-2024 | Republicans, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.55 to 0.68 | 633 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rep_cult_common_2024 | +0.31 | pooled standard deviations of the two-item cultural index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the cultural index built from abortion and the gay and lesbian thermometer only, standardized over 1984-2024 | Republicans, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.25 to 0.36 | 1,809 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rep_econ_1984 | +0.45 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the economic index | Republicans, leaners included | 1984 | 95% CI 0.39 to 0.51 | 633 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rep_econ_2024 | +0.49 | pooled standard deviations of the index (0 is the mean of all 1984-2024 respondents) | weighted mean of the economic index | Republicans, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.43 to 0.55 | 1,942 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| slope_2024 | 0.51 | standard deviations of the cultural index per standard deviation of the economic index | weighted least squares slope of the standardized cultural index on the standardized economic index, which equals the correlation (Fisher z interval) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.55 | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_cult_early | 0.53 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | weighted least squares coefficient on the cultural index with study fixed effects (HC3 interval) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 1984-1996 | 95% CI 0.49 to 0.56 | 7,815 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_cult_recent | 0.67 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | weighted least squares coefficient on the cultural index with study fixed effects (HC3 interval) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 2012-2024 | 95% CI 0.65 to 0.70 | 17,452 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_cult_rise | 0.15 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | recent minus early weighted least squares coefficient on the cultural index (normal interval from the two HC3 standard errors, independent periods) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 1984-1996 and 2012-2024 | 95% CI 0.11 to 0.19 | 17,452 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_diff_bound | 0.08 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | largest absolute end of the two intervals for the cultural minus economic coefficient | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 1984-1996 and 2012-2024 |   |   | none (count or constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_diff_early | +0.02 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | cultural coefficient minus economic coefficient (HC3 interval) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 1984-1996 | 95% CI −0.03 to 0.08 | 7,815 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_diff_recent | +0.01 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | cultural coefficient minus economic coefficient (HC3 interval) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 2012-2024 | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.06 | 17,452 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_econ_early | 0.50 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | weighted least squares coefficient on the economic index with study fixed effects (HC3 interval) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 1984-1996 | 95% CI 0.47 to 0.54 | 7,815 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_econ_recent | 0.66 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | weighted least squares coefficient on the economic index with study fixed effects (HC3 interval) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 2012-2024 | 95% CI 0.64 to 0.69 | 17,452 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| sp_econ_rise | 0.16 | points on the 1 to 7 self-placement scale per pooled standard deviation of the index | recent minus early weighted least squares coefficient on the economic index (normal interval from the two HC3 standard errors, independent periods) | adults with both indices and a 7-point self-placement | 1984-1996 and 2012-2024 | 95% CI 0.12 to 0.21 | 17,452 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| strong_1984 | 18.2% | percent of adults | weighted share at least 0.5 standard deviations from the median on both indices and on opposite sides | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI 16.2% to 20.1% | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| strong_2024 | 6.6% | percent of adults | weighted share at least 0.5 standard deviations from the median on both indices and on opposite sides | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 5.5% to 7.7% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| strong_narrow_1984 | 27.5% | percent of adults | weighted share at least 0.25 standard deviations from the median on both indices and on opposite sides | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI 25.3% to 29.8% | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| strong_narrow_2024 | 15.9% | percent of adults | weighted share at least 0.25 standard deviations from the median on both indices and on opposite sides | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 14.3% to 17.5% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| strong_wide_1984 | 10.3% | percent of adults | weighted share at least 0.75 standard deviations from the median on both indices and on opposite sides | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI 8.8% to 11.9% | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| strong_wide_2024 | 3.2% | percent of adults | weighted share at least 0.75 standard deviations from the median on both indices and on opposite sides | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 2.5% to 4.0% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| xp_1984 | 46.2% | percent of adults | weighted share on opposite sides of the two weighted medians (economic right and cultural left, or the reverse) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 1984 | 95% CI 43.8% to 48.6% | 1,508 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| xp_2024 | 30.0% | percent of adults | weighted share on opposite sides of the two weighted medians (economic right and cultural left, or the reverse) | adults with at least two of three items answered on each index | 2024 | 95% CI 28.0% to 31.9% | 4,387 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |

## Definitions

- Correlation: A number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other.
- Standard deviation: A measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out.
- Feeling thermometer: A 0 to 100 rating of a group or person, where 0 is the coldest feeling and 100 the warmest. The American National Election Studies ask respondents to rate parties, candidates and social groups this way.
- Confidence interval: A range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.
- Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
- Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
- Survey mode: How respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.
- Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.
- Party sorting: The alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits.
- Fixed effects: Regression terms that give each group, such as each country or each year, its own baseline. The other coefficients then compare respondents within the same group.
- HC3 robust standard errors: A way of computing standard errors that stays valid when the spread of the outcome differs across respondents, with a correction for small samples. The book uses it for regressions that have no clusters.

## Methods

Sample: respondents in the ANES Cumulative Data File with a positive weight and at least two of three items on each index, 15 studies from 1984 to 2024 (33,257 respondents). The 2002 study has no cultural index, since only the gay and lesbian thermometer was asked. Indices: each item is oriented so that a higher value is more conservative (the direction comes from the value labels of the Cumulative Data File, see the items table, never from a correlation), converted to a z-score with the weighted mean and standard deviation over all ANES years in which it was asked, and averaged over the items the respondent answered (the share of adults whose index averages two answers is the weighted share of a study's respondents who answered two of the three items). The economic index uses guaranteed jobs (VCF0809), services and spending (VCF0839) and health insurance (VCF0806); the cultural index uses abortion (VCF0838), the gay and lesbian thermometer (VCF0232) and the traditional-values item (VCF0853). The cleaned ANES file stores the Cumulative Data File thermometer code 97 (97 to 100 degrees) as 100. An index is the mean of the standardized items a respondent answered; the correlation does not depend on its unit, and each figure names its own yardstick: the party means and the self-placement regression use the index re-standardized to mean 0 and standard deviation 1 over all respondents in the analysis sample, and the cross-pressure band and the 2024 joint distribution use the standard deviation of the index within the study. Estimand: the survey-weighted Pearson correlation of the two indices within each study, weight VCF0009z. Net of party: both indices are residualized on the party identification categories within the study (weighted group means; three categories, and seven points with leaners kept apart, VCF0301) and the residuals are correlated; the Fisher z interval uses the Kish effective sample size less the number of party dummies. Reliability: standardized Cronbach alpha from the weighted mean inter-item correlation among respondents who answered every item of the index in that study (respondents with two of three items enter the correlation but not alpha, so alpha overstates their reliability); the corrected correlation divides the observed correlation by the square root of the product of the two alphas and is shown where both alphas are at least 0.4; intervals for alpha and the corrected correlation are 95% percentile intervals from 1000 bootstrap resamples of respondents within each study (each resample draws respondents with replacement and recomputes the estimate; seed 12345 plus the study year). Cross-pressure: an adult is cross-pressured when right of the median on one index and left of it on the other; each index is split at its weighted median within the study, respondents tied at the median are divided so that each side holds exactly half of the weighted population, and the tolerance band is 0.5 standard deviations of the index within the study around the median; the implied share is 50% minus arcsin(r) divided by pi, the value for two normally distributed (bell-shaped) indices with correlation r. Party means use party identification with leaners counted with their party and are expressed in standard deviations of the pooled analysis sample; the line for all adults is the weighted mean of every respondent in the analysis sample, independents without a lean included; the common-item check on the cultural party means and gap uses abortion and the thermometer only, which were asked in every study except 1986 and 1990. The reference for each cell of the 2024 joint distribution is the share of a bivariate normal distribution with the observed correlation, centred at the medians, inside the same bin; the second view of the figure subtracts it from the observed share and from both ends of the observed interval. Self-placement: weighted least squares of seven-point liberal-conservative self-placement (VCF0803) on both standardized indices with study fixed effects and HC3 errors, for 1984 to 1996 and 2012 to 2024; the rise in a coefficient between the two periods is the difference of the two coefficients with a normal interval from the two HC3 standard errors, treating the periods as independent samples. The slope of the standardized cultural index on the standardized economic index equals their correlation. Interview mode: face-to-face and web estimates use weight_ftf and weight_web, which exist for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024; web interviews began in 2012 and the 2020 study mixes modes without mode weights. Intervals: 95% Fisher z intervals on the Kish effective sample size, normal intervals for shares (Wilson intervals for cells of the joint distribution); all are model based and ignore clustering and stratification. Suppression: a study-level cell needs at least 150 respondents and an effective sample of 100; a party-by-study cell needs 100 and 100; a cell of the joint distribution needs 30 respondents.

## What these data cannot show

- The correlation is between two indices built in advance from a fixed set of items, so these data cannot show how many dimensions the public holds.
- A factor model or an item-response model fitted to a wider set of questions could find a different number, and a different choice of items would change the level of the correlation.
- The chapter also leaves out issues that fall outside both indices, such as immigration and race, which may form a third dimension.
- The corrected correlation assumes that the errors in the two indices are unrelated to each other and that alpha measures reliability, which holds only if the items of an index measure the same attitude.
- It is an upper bound for the correlation between the underlying attitudes only if errors are also unrelated across the items of one index.
- A shared response format or response style would raise alpha, make the correction too small and remove the bound, and the corrected series inherits the ambiguity in what a rise in alpha means.
- The interval for the corrected value, +0.69 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.74) in 2024, comes from resampling respondents within a study and is wide in the early studies, where the indices have two components and low alpha.
- Each study interviews different adults, so the series cannot show whether individuals' attitudes moved together or whether the population changed as cohorts replaced one another.
- The comparison within party identification uses party identification measured in the same interview and shaped by the same attitudes, so it does not measure an effect of party.
- Interview mode changed over the period, and the interview-mode comparison covers only 4 studies.
- The intervals are model based and ignore the ANES clustering and stratification.
- The 2002 study has no cultural index, and 4 studies have two components in one or both indices.
- A comparison with the Cooperative Election Study is not included.
- Its economic index contains only health-care questions and its cultural index mixes abortion, guns, immigration and the environment, so a higher correlation there would confound item content with survey.
- A matched comparison needs an index built from the same kinds of questions in both surveys.
- A rising correlation fits an account in which the public has moved toward the alignment that the parties present, and the party gaps in Table 3 are consistent with it, but nothing in these data tests that account.

## References

1. Feldman, Stanley; Johnston, Christopher (2014). Understanding the Determinants of Political Ideology: Implications of Structural Complexity. Political Psychology 35(3): 337-358. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12055
2. Treier, Shawn; Hillygus, D. Sunshine (2009). The Nature of Political Ideology in the Contemporary Electorate. Public Opinion Quarterly 73(4): 679-703. https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/73/4/679/1829142
3. Carmines, Edward G.; Ensley, Michael J.; Wagner, Michael W. (2012). Who Fits the Left-Right Divide? Partisan Polarization in the American Electorate. American Behavioral Scientist 56(12): 1631-1653. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764212463353
4. Poole, Keith T.; Rosenthal, Howard (2007). Ideology and Congress: A Political Economic History of Roll Call Voting. Transaction Publishers (second edition).
5. Malka, Ariel; Lelkes, Yphtach; Soto, Christopher J. (2019). Are Cultural and Economic Conservatism Positively Correlated? A Large-Scale Cross-National Test. British Journal of Political Science 49(3): 1045-1069. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/are-cultural-and-economic-conservatism-positively-correlated-a-largescale-crossnational-test/83AFEDEA5E004CF23631C5388E7C9F67
6. Fisher, Ronald A. (1921). On the Probable Error of a Coefficient of Correlation Deduced from a Small Sample. Metron 1(4): 3-32.
7. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
8. Cronbach, Lee J. (1951). Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests. Psychometrika 16(3): 297-334. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02310555
9. Spearman, Charles (1904). The Proof and Measurement of Association between Two Things. American Journal of Psychology 15(1): 72-101. https://doi.org/10.2307/1412159

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/build.py (sha256 3a2ec97e03051310d96aac2a142100947fce8484db3e34965ee689e56cd16e2b)
- Built on: 2026-09-30
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| data/anes/anes_cdf_clean.parquet | 15,640,720 | b3f0c2d8ae5673b2c40cf6df71318ea3f712cd845c4f1aad0460f28d1b022643 | 04f06dae56b65649291caf6cf77aab9767d9c92d0c2669c6d3655d9063970583 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 2951ffeac47b3a0909e6cf2b156c5681801216a36579844a0e6d0a3aee736495 |
| figures/corr_trend.json | b806a9e74fea23086d2057d1fa51cfc65bf0eec4819039cada7f809d0a75ccb9 |
| figures/cross_pressure.json | e6fa4acefcf1477ae31e9821d592007472f9d2a892f2ac15f5a2334fa13d0180 |
| figures/items_coding.json | 32d68b0c176b6c1a2218fa26a1de7a7b7989d16a04b2d1aadcecbd31b4e3664e |
| figures/joint_2024.json | 8b244abc7ed70e8dd6e4b735a2c895919b02f3dd8c04382696cd764ed4dc1a63 |
| figures/party_positions.json | cf6ce8c11f0da1c737a7cb61d9f34f951fd23295364d0fccb8b6e5598c19489b |
| figures/reliability.json | 068fc448d8cd6a334b7a03ca2445e803f262ca6fc3d92f5a4f7e155ee70bd6bb |
| figures/selfplacement.json | 759720fab597e9d01db783e13ae600127d4ba021bb7c49a59e4d082414f38ed7 |
| meta.json | e3dd1062472adccfb63de9399fbaa52e1c702e5096d18c1fd659146b3d81bf2b |
| refs.json | 498cdfce73433570710806a2c6ae0b097f8d13c6136220acbbe53f48f2c67454 |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "items_coding" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/items_coding.json
- Table 2, figure "corr_trend" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/corr_trend.json
- Table 3, figure "party_positions" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/party_positions.json
- Table 4, figure "reliability" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/reliability.json
- Table 5, figure "selfplacement" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/selfplacement.json
- Table 6, figure "cross_pressure" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/cross_pressure.json
- Table 7, figure "joint_2024" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/economic-and-cultural-dimensions/figures/joint_2024.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt