{"breakdowns":[{"categories":[{"key":"No HS","label":"No high school diploma"},{"key":"High School","label":"High school graduate"},{"key":"Some College","label":"Some college"},{"key":"2-Year","label":"2-year degree"},{"key":"4-Year","label":"4-year degree"},{"key":"Post-Grad","label":"Postgraduate degree"}],"key":"education","label":"Education"},{"categories":[{"key":"<30k","label":"Under $30,000"},{"key":"30-60k","label":"$30,000 to $60,000"},{"key":"60-100k","label":"$60,000 to $100,000"},{"key":"100-150k","label":"$100,000 to $150,000"},{"key":"150k+","label":"$150,000 or more"}],"key":"income","label":"Family income"},{"categories":[{"key":"White","label":"White, not Hispanic"},{"key":"Black","label":"Black"},{"key":"Hispanic","label":"Hispanic"},{"key":"Asian","label":"Asian"},{"key":"Other","label":"Other or mixed"}],"key":"race","label":"Race and ethnicity"},{"categories":[{"key":"18-24","label":"18 to 24"},{"key":"25-34","label":"25 to 34"},{"key":"35-49","label":"35 to 49"},{"key":"50-64","label":"50 to 64"},{"key":"65+","label":"65 and older"}],"key":"age","label":"Age"},{"categories":[{"key":"Protestant","label":"Protestant"},{"key":"Catholic","label":"Catholic"},{"key":"Other religion","label":"Other religion"},{"key":"Jewish","label":"Jewish"},{"key":"None","label":"No religion"}],"key":"religion","label":"Religion"},{"categories":[{"key":"Liberal","label":"Liberal"},{"key":"Moderate","label":"Moderate"},{"key":"Conservative","label":"Conservative"}],"key":"ideology","label":"Ideology"}],"built":"2026-09-30","cannot_show":["These are opinions of respondents to an opt-in online panel, weighted to national benchmarks. State and county values are raw weighted means and inherit the panel's sampling error, which the intervals describe only under a simple-random-sample assumption.","The cumulative file harmonizes items across years, and the wording of an item can differ by wave; the 2018 fuel-efficiency item, for example, asked the opposite proposal, and is excluded. A share supporting a proposal does not measure how much respondents care about it.","State coefficients describe associations within a state at the ages, incomes and education levels of its respondents. They do not show that a trait changes opinion, and each carries its own sampling error, so differences between states are noisier than the point estimates suggest.","Nothing here covers 2022 onward: the policy battery ends in 2021."],"checks":{"guide_2018_items_tied_out":16,"item_years_checked":125,"sign_check_flagged_after_fixes":{},"sign_check_flagged_before_fixes":{"climate_fueleff 2018":-15.63,"health_aca_repeal 2014":69.08},"state_returns":{"2004":{"dem_total":59028079,"democrat":"KERRY","max_relative_difference_from_official":0.0002,"rep_total":62028285,"republican":"BUSH"},"2008":{"dem_total":69498459,"democrat":"OBAMA","max_relative_difference_from_official":0,"rep_total":59948283,"republican":"MCCAIN"},"2012":{"dem_total":65899660,"democrat":"OBAMA","max_relative_difference_from_official":0.00024,"rep_total":60932152,"republican":"ROMNEY"},"2016":{"dem_total":65853581,"democrat":"CLINTON","max_relative_difference_from_official":0,"rep_total":62985062,"republican":"TRUMP"},"2020":{"dem_total":81268908,"democrat":"BIDEN","max_relative_difference_from_official":0.00018,"rep_total":74216146,"republican":"TRUMP"},"2024":{"dem_total":75017613,"democrat":"HARRIS","max_relative_difference_from_official":0,"rep_total":77302580,"republican":"TRUMP"}}},"description":"Twenty CES policy questions: party gaps over time, demographic gradients, state and county estimates.","estimands":{"breakdown":"Weighted percentage within each group, one dimension at a time, pooled over all years fielded and in the latest year fielded.","county":"Weighted percentage in each county, all years fielded pooled, cumulative weight, raw mean with no smoothing; counties below the floor are omitted.","fit":"Precision-weighted regression of the state coefficients on the state Democratic margin, slope in percentage points of coefficient per 10 points of margin.","gap":"Democratic share minus Republican share in each year, in percentage points; the two standard errors combine in quadrature.","regression":"Coefficient of a trait in a within-state weighted linear probability model, percentage points of support per national standard deviation.","state":"Weighted percentage in each state, all years fielded pooled, cumulative weight; states below the floor are omitted.","trend":"Weighted percentage of respondents in each survey year who take the supporting side of the item, by party; year weight; 95% interval on the effective sample size."},"file_pattern":"{key}.json","floors":{"county":150,"national_all":{"min_n":150,"min_neff":100},"national_cell":{"min_n":100,"min_neff":100},"state":300,"thin_state_year":30},"issues":[{"excluded_years":[],"file":"abortion_legal.json","hero":{"all":59.42,"dem":84.27,"gap":54.9,"gap_conf_high":56.61,"gap_conf_low":53.19,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":29.37,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Always allow abortion","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support always allowing abortion","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"abortion_always","variable":"support_abortion_always"},"key":"abortion_legal","label":"Always allow abortion","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support always allowing abortion","n_counties":444,"n_states":51,"n_total":316999,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"abortion","years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2014-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"abortion_ban20.json","hero":{"all":56.71,"dem":36.81,"gap":-43.38,"gap_conf_high":-41.59,"gap_conf_low":-45.17,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":80.2,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Ban abortion after 20 weeks","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support banning abortion after 20 weeks","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"abortion_20weeks","variable":"support_ban_abortion_20wk"},"key":"abortion_ban20","label":"Ban abortion after 20 weeks","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support banning abortion after the 20th week of pregnancy","n_counties":444,"n_states":51,"n_total":316766,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"abortion","years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2014-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"abortion_defund.json","hero":{"all":46.83,"dem":21.7,"gap":-55.16,"gap_conf_high":-53.97,"gap_conf_low":-56.35,"n_partisans":37965,"rep":76.86,"year":2020},"item":{"codebook_label":"Prohibit expenditures for abortion","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support prohibiting govt expenditures for abortion","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"abortion_expenditures","variable":"support_prohibit_abort_funds"},"key":"abortion_defund","label":"Bar public funds for abortion","latest_year":2020,"measure":"Share who support prohibiting government expenditures for abortion","n_counties":413,"n_states":51,"n_total":291147,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"abortion","years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020],"years_text":"2014-2020"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"guns_assault_ban.json","hero":{"all":57.94,"dem":87.28,"gap":54.76,"gap_conf_high":56.46,"gap_conf_low":53.06,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":32.52,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Ban assault rifles","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support banning assault rifles","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"guns_assaultban","variable":"support_assault_weap_ban"},"key":"guns_assault_ban","label":"Ban assault rifles","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support banning assault rifles","n_counties":461,"n_states":51,"n_total":332651,"notes":["The 2018 guide asks whether the respondent is for or against each proposal; the cumulative file labels the answers Support and Oppose."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"guns","years":[2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2013-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"guns_bg_checks.json","hero":{"all":87.91,"dem":95.79,"gap":13.17,"gap_conf_high":14.46,"gap_conf_low":11.88,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":82.61,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Background checks for guns for all sales","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support background checks for all gun sales","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"guns_bgchecks","variable":"support_bg_checks"},"key":"guns_bg_checks","label":"Background checks on all gun sales","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support background checks for all gun sales","n_counties":389,"n_states":51,"n_total":272442,"notes":["The 2018 guide asks whether the respondent is for or against each proposal; the cumulative file labels the answers Support and Oppose."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"guns","years":[2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2021],"years_text":"2013-2019, 2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"guns_conceal.json","hero":{"all":39.14,"dem":17.5,"gap":-42.13,"gap_conf_high":-40.31,"gap_conf_low":-43.96,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":59.63,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Ease ability to obtain concealed-carry permits","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support easing concealed-carry permits","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"guns_permits","variable":"support_ease_concealed"},"key":"guns_conceal","label":"Ease concealed-carry permits","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support making concealed-carry permits easier to obtain","n_counties":460,"n_states":51,"n_total":332943,"notes":["The 2018 guide asks whether the respondent is for or against each proposal; the cumulative file labels the answers Support and Oppose."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"guns","years":[2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2013-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"immig_deport.json","hero":{"all":39.94,"dem":18.36,"gap":-47.53,"gap_conf_high":-45.1,"gap_conf_low":-49.96,"n_partisans":11004,"rep":65.89,"year":2017},"item":{"codebook_label":"Identify and deport illegal immigrants","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support identifying and deporting illegal immigrants","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"immig_deport","variable":"support_deport_illegal"},"key":"immig_deport","label":"Identify and deport undocumented immigrants","latest_year":2017,"measure":"Share who support identifying and deporting undocumented immigrants","n_counties":233,"n_states":49,"n_total":153250,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"immigration","years":[2014,2015,2016,2017],"years_text":"2014-2017"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"immig_legalize.json","hero":{"all":65.03,"dem":87.43,"gap":47.31,"gap_conf_high":49.07,"gap_conf_low":45.56,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":40.12,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Grant conditional legal status to undocumented","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support conditional legal status for undocumented","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"immig_legalize","variable":"support_legalize_undoc"},"key":"immig_legalize","label":"Conditional legal status for undocumented immigrants","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support granting conditional legal status to undocumented immigrants","n_counties":538,"n_states":51,"n_total":414144,"notes":["The item asks about conditional legal status, not unconditional legal status."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"immigration","years":[2007,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2007, 2010-2017, 2019-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"immig_wall.json","hero":{"all":46.52,"dem":16.35,"gap":-69.91,"gap_conf_high":-68.45,"gap_conf_low":-71.36,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":86.26,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Increase spending on border security, including building a wall","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support increased border spending including wall","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"immig_wall","variable":"support_border_wall"},"key":"immig_wall","label":"More border security spending, including a wall","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support increased border security spending, including building a wall","n_counties":251,"n_states":49,"n_total":164531,"notes":["The item asks about increased border security spending that includes building a wall, not about a wall alone."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"immigration","years":[2017,2018,2020,2021],"years_text":"2017-2018, 2020-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"immig_cut_legal.json","hero":{"all":41.52,"dem":21.4,"gap":-45.51,"gap_conf_high":-44.24,"gap_conf_low":-46.77,"n_partisans":37919,"rep":66.91,"year":2020},"item":{"codebook_label":"Reduce legal immigration by 50 percent","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support reducing legal immigration by 50%","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"immig_reduce","variable":"support_reduce_legal_immig"},"key":"immig_cut_legal","label":"Cut legal immigration","latest_year":2020,"measure":"Share who support reducing legal immigration","n_counties":207,"n_states":49,"n_total":137439,"notes":["The 2018 wave describes the policy as eliminating the visa lottery and ending family-based migration, while the cumulative label reads reduce legal immigration by 50 percent. The wording of 2019 and 2020 was not checked against their guides, so the three waves are one item only as far as the cumulative file harmonizes them."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"immigration","years":[2018,2019,2020],"years_text":"2018-2020"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"climate_epa_co2.json","hero":{"all":62.72,"dem":90.1,"gap":55.2,"gap_conf_high":56.88,"gap_conf_low":53.53,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":34.89,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Allow EPA to regulate carbon dioxide emissions","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support allowing EPA to regulate CO2","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"enviro_carbon","variable":"support_epa_carbon"},"key":"climate_epa_co2","label":"Let the EPA regulate carbon dioxide","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support allowing the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide emissions","n_counties":434,"n_states":51,"n_total":308291,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"climate","years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2014-2021"},{"excluded_years":[2018],"file":"climate_fueleff.json","hero":{"all":63.82,"dem":83.07,"gap":37.46,"gap_conf_high":39.3,"gap_conf_low":35.63,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":45.61,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Raise average fuel efficiency","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support raising average fuel efficiency","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"enviro_mpg_raise","variable":"support_raise_fuel_eff"},"key":"climate_fueleff","label":"Raise fuel-efficiency standards","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support raising the required average fuel efficiency","n_counties":346,"n_states":51,"n_total":238909,"notes":["The 2018 wave asked the opposite proposal (lower the required fuel efficiency of the average automobile from 35 to 25 miles per gallon), and the cumulative file keeps the raw code, so support in 2018 means support for lowering. Its Democratic minus Republican gap has the wrong sign. The wording differs from the other waves, so 1 minus the value would not make the wave comparable and 2018 is left out."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"climate","years":[2014,2015,2016,2017,2020,2021],"years_text":"2014-2017, 2020-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"health_aca_repeal.json","hero":{"all":45.73,"dem":21.29,"gap":-52.44,"gap_conf_high":-50.69,"gap_conf_low":-54.19,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":73.73,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Repeal the Affordable Care Act","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support repealing the ACA","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"healthcare_aca","variable":"support_aca_repeal"},"key":"health_aca_repeal","label":"Repeal the Affordable Care Act","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support repealing the Affordable Care Act","n_counties":519,"n_states":51,"n_total":384762,"notes":["The 2014 wave is reverse-coded in the cumulative file: before the fix Democrats look more supportive of repeal than Republicans, the only wave with that sign. The build recodes 2014 as 1 minus the value."],"recoded_years":[2014],"theme":"health","years":[2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2012-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"health_m4a.json","hero":{"all":63.16,"dem":88.33,"gap":56.7,"gap_conf_high":58.38,"gap_conf_low":55.03,"n_partisans":16003,"rep":31.63,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Provide Medicare for all Americans","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support Medicare for all","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"healthcare_medicare","variable":"support_medicare_for_all"},"key":"health_m4a","label":"Medicare for all","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support Medicare for all Americans","n_counties":250,"n_states":49,"n_total":164360,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"health","years":[2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2018-2021"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"lgbt_marriage.json","hero":{"all":61.64,"dem":76.07,"gap":37.7,"gap_conf_high":38.96,"gap_conf_low":36.43,"n_partisans":39943,"rep":38.38,"year":2016},"item":{"codebook_label":"Support for legalizing gay marriage","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support legalizing gay marriage","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"gaymarriage_legalize","variable":"support_legalize_gay_marr"},"key":"lgbt_marriage","label":"Legalize same-sex marriage","latest_year":2016,"measure":"Share who support legalizing same-sex marriage","n_counties":296,"n_states":51,"n_total":204001,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"lgbt","years":[2012,2013,2014,2015,2016],"years_text":"2012-2016"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"spend_education.json","hero":{"all":63.2,"dem":83.25,"gap":36.99,"gap_conf_high":38.29,"gap_conf_low":35.68,"n_partisans":33040,"rep":46.27,"year":2020},"item":{"codebook_label":"Spending preferences on education (1 = Increase, 3 = Maintain, 5 = Decrease)","coding":"1 = Greatly increase or Slightly increase, 0 = Maintain, Slightly decrease or Greatly decrease; the published share is the weighted percentage who want spending increased. Maintain counts as not wanting an increase.","dictionary_label":"Education spending preference (1=support increase, 0=else)","options":["Greatly increase","Slightly increase","Maintain","Slightly decrease","Greatly decrease"],"source_variable":"spending_education","variable":"spending_education_inc"},"key":"spend_education","label":"Increase education spending","latest_year":2020,"measure":"Share who want education spending increased","n_counties":301,"n_states":51,"n_total":204526,"notes":["The 2018 guide words these items as how the respondent's state legislature should spend money. Earlier waves were not checked against their guides."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"spending","years":[2014,2016,2018,2020],"years_text":"2014, 2016, 2018, 2020"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"spend_welfare.json","hero":{"all":36.08,"dem":59.08,"gap":44.21,"gap_conf_high":45.46,"gap_conf_low":42.96,"n_partisans":33041,"rep":14.87,"year":2020},"item":{"codebook_label":"Spending preferences on welfare (1 = Increase, 3 = Maintain, 5 = Decrease)","coding":"1 = Greatly increase or Slightly increase, 0 = Maintain, Slightly decrease or Greatly decrease; the published share is the weighted percentage who want spending increased. Maintain counts as not wanting an increase.","dictionary_label":"Welfare spending preference (1=support increase, 0=else)","options":["Greatly increase","Slightly increase","Maintain","Slightly decrease","Greatly decrease"],"source_variable":"spending_welfare","variable":"spending_welfare_inc"},"key":"spend_welfare","label":"Increase welfare spending","latest_year":2020,"measure":"Share who want welfare spending increased","n_counties":301,"n_states":51,"n_total":204644,"notes":["The 2018 guide words these items as how the respondent's state legislature should spend money. Earlier waves were not checked against their guides."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"spending","years":[2014,2016,2018,2020],"years_text":"2014, 2016, 2018, 2020"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"spend_health.json","hero":{"all":62.65,"dem":87.17,"gap":47.01,"gap_conf_high":48.26,"gap_conf_low":45.76,"n_partisans":33041,"rep":40.16,"year":2020},"item":{"codebook_label":"Spending preferences on health care (1 = Increase, 3 = Maintain, 5 = Decrease)","coding":"1 = Greatly increase or Slightly increase, 0 = Maintain, Slightly decrease or Greatly decrease; the published share is the weighted percentage who want spending increased. Maintain counts as not wanting an increase.","dictionary_label":"Healthcare spending preference (1=support increase, 0=else)","options":["Greatly increase","Slightly increase","Maintain","Slightly decrease","Greatly decrease"],"source_variable":"spending_healthcare","variable":"spending_healthcare_inc"},"key":"spend_health","label":"Increase health care spending","latest_year":2020,"measure":"Share who want health care spending increased","n_counties":301,"n_states":51,"n_total":204597,"notes":["The 2018 guide words these items as how the respondent's state legislature should spend money. Earlier waves were not checked against their guides."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"spending","years":[2014,2016,2018,2020],"years_text":"2014, 2016, 2018, 2020"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"spend_police.json","hero":{"all":48.14,"dem":32.24,"gap":-39.24,"gap_conf_high":-37.89,"gap_conf_low":-40.59,"n_partisans":33042,"rep":71.48,"year":2020},"item":{"codebook_label":"Spending preferences on law enforcement (1 = Increase, 3 = Maintain, 5 = Decrease)","coding":"1 = Greatly increase or Slightly increase, 0 = Maintain, Slightly decrease or Greatly decrease; the published share is the weighted percentage who want spending increased. Maintain counts as not wanting an increase.","dictionary_label":"Law enforcement spending preference (1=support increase, 0=else)","options":["Greatly increase","Slightly increase","Maintain","Slightly decrease","Greatly decrease"],"source_variable":"spending_police","variable":"spending_police_inc"},"key":"spend_police","label":"Increase police spending","latest_year":2020,"measure":"Share who want law enforcement spending increased","n_counties":300,"n_states":51,"n_total":204411,"notes":["The 2018 guide words these items as how the respondent's state legislature should spend money. Earlier waves were not checked against their guides."],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"spending","years":[2014,2016,2018,2020],"years_text":"2014, 2016, 2018, 2020"},{"excluded_years":[],"file":"trade_tariff_china.json","hero":{"all":62.85,"dem":56.6,"gap":-19.38,"gap_conf_high":-17.5,"gap_conf_low":-21.26,"n_partisans":15993,"rep":75.97,"year":2021},"item":{"codebook_label":"Tariffs on goods imported from China","coding":"1 = Support, 0 = Oppose; the published share is the weighted percentage answering Support.","dictionary_label":"Support tariffs on Chinese goods","options":["Support","Oppose"],"source_variable":"trade_china","variable":"support_tariff_china"},"key":"trade_tariff_china","label":"Tariffs on goods from China","latest_year":2021,"measure":"Share who support tariffs on goods imported from China","n_counties":250,"n_states":49,"n_total":163690,"notes":[],"recoded_years":[],"theme":"trade","years":[2018,2019,2020,2021],"years_text":"2018-2021"}],"item_text_note":"Wording is the item label in the CES dictionary (the harmonized label of the Cumulative Policy Preferences file), not the survey question text. The 2018 guide, https://sda.berkeley.edu/sdaweb/docs/cces2018/DOC/CCES+Guide+2018.pdf, gives the exact question text for that wave.","methods":["Data: the Cooperative Election Study (CES) cumulative file, with the Cumulative Policy Preferences items merged onto the common content. Twenty items, each with a declared party direction that the coding check uses. The policy battery runs 2007 to 2021 and ends there; the 2022 to 2024 rows carry none of these items.","Weights: single-year estimates (the trend, the party gap and the latest-year breakdown) use the year weight. Within every year it is proportional to the cumulative weight, so the choice changes no single-year number. Pooled estimates (states, counties, the pooled breakdown and the regressions) use the cumulative weight, which gives every survey year the same total weight, so a pooled estimate averages the waves equally whatever their sizes.","Intervals: 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size with a normal approximation. They treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample of an opt-in panel, so they are model-based and ignore any design effect beyond the weights.","Party: self-identified Democrat, Republican or Independent from the three-category party question; leaners are not separated, and respondents answering Other or Not sure are in the all-respondent line only.","Floors: 300 respondents for a state estimate and a state regression, 150 respondents for a county estimate. National cells need at least 100 respondents and an effective sample of 100 (150 and 100 for the all-respondent line of a year). Cells below a floor are left out, not shown as zero.","State estimates and county estimates are weighted shares pooled over every year an item was fielded. County estimates are raw means with a standard error, not model-based estimates.","State coefficients: each state gets a weighted linear probability model of support on education, family income, age, female, non-White and born-again or evangelical, all standardized with the national weighted mean and standard deviation of the issue's pooled sample, plus year effects. The scatter against state Democratic margin is a precision-weighted regression of the coefficients on the margin, with robust intervals and a precision-weighted correlation.","State Democratic margin: the two-party Democratic margin in the presidential election before each year fielded (2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 or 2020, the mapping CES uses), from the certified state returns, averaged over the years fielded with every year counting equally."],"notes":["support_aca_repeal is reverse-coded in 2014 in the cumulative file and is recoded as 1 minus the value.","The 2018 wave of the fuel-efficiency item asked the opposite proposal and is excluded from every estimate.","County values are pooled raw means with a standard error and n; counties below the floor are not shown.","The regressions are weighted, all six traits are standardized on the same national scale, and every coefficient has an interval.","State Democratic margin comes from the certified returns, not from respondents."],"parties":[{"color":"dem","key":"dem","pid3":"Democrat","series":"Democrats"},{"color":"rep","key":"rep","pid3":"Republican","series":"Republicans"},{"color":"ind","key":"ind","pid3":"Independent","series":"Independents"},{"color":"total","key":"all","pid3":null,"series":"All respondents"}],"series_colors":{"All respondents":"total","Democrats":"dem","Independents":"ind","Republicans":"rep"},"source":{"dataset":"ces","name":"Cooperative Election Study, cumulative file","respondents":"Respondents to the items; see each issue for its count","url":"https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/","years":"Policy items 2007-2021 (the file spans 2006-2024)"},"sources":[{"dataset":"ces","detail":"Cumulative common content 2006-2024 with the Cumulative Policy Preferences items, policy items 2007-2021","weights":"weight (single year), weight_cumulative (pooled years)"},{"dataset":"state-returns","detail":"MEDSL state presidential returns, 2004 to 2024 elections","weights":"none (full counts)"}],"state_margins":{"columns":["state","2004","2008","2012","2016","2020","2024"],"elections":[2004,2008,2012,2016,2020,2024],"rows":[["AK",-26.5,-22.1,-14.6,-16.8,-10.5,-13.7],["AL",-25.8,-21.8,-22.4,-28.7,-25.8,-30.9],["AR",-9.9,-20.3,-24.3,-28.6,-28.4,-31.3],["AZ",-10.6,-8.6,-9.2,-3.8,0.3,-5.6],["CA",10.1,24.6,23.7,32.3,29.8,20.8],["CO",-4.7,9.1,5.5,5.4,13.9,11.3],["CT",10.5,22.6,17.5,14.3,20.4,14.8],["DC",81,86.8,85.2,91.4,88.9,86.6],["DE",7.7,25.3,18.9,12,19.3,15],["FL",-5,2.8,0.9,-1.2,-3.4,-13.2],["GA",-16.7,-5.3,-7.9,-5.3,0.2,-2.2],["HI",8.8,46,43.4,34.9,30.1,23.6],["IA",-0.7,9.7,5.9,-10.1,-8.4,-13.4],["ID",-38.6,-26,-32.8,-36.6,-31.8,-37.5],["IL",10.4,25.5,17.2,18,17.3,11.1],["IN",-20.8,1,-10.4,-20.2,-16.4,-19.3],["KS",-25.7,-15.2,-22.2,-22.2,-15,-16.4],["KY",-20,-16.5,-23.1,-31.3,-26.4,-31],["LA",-14.7,-18.9,-17.5,-20.3,-18.9,-22.4],["MA",25.5,26.4,23.6,29.3,34.2,25.9],["MD",13.1,25.9,26.6,28,34.1,29.5],["ME",9.2,17.7,15.7,3.2,9.3,7.1],["MI",3.5,16.7,9.6,-0.2,2.8,-1.4],["MN",3.5,10.5,7.9,1.7,7.3,4.3],["MO",-7.2,-0.1,-9.6,-19.6,-15.7,-18.7],["MS",-19,-13.3,-11.6,-18.2,-16.8,-23.1],["MT",-21,-2.3,-14.1,-22.2,-16.8,-20.6],["NC",-12.5,0.3,-2.1,-3.8,-1.4,-3.3],["ND",-27.8,-8.8,-20.2,-39.6,-34.4,-37.4],["NE",-33.7,-15.2,-22.3,-27.1,-19.6,-20.8],["NH",1.4,9.7,5.7,0.4,7.5,2.8],["NJ",6.7,15.7,17.9,14.6,16.1,6],["NM",-0.8,15.3,10.6,9.3,11,6.1],["NV",-2.6,12.8,6.8,2.6,2.4,-3.2],["NY",18.6,27.2,28.6,23.5,23.4,12.7],["OH",-2.1,4.7,3,-8.5,-8.2,-11.3],["OK",-31.1,-31.3,-33.5,-38.6,-33.9,-34.9],["OR",4.2,16.8,12.5,12.3,16.6,14.9],["PA",2.5,10.5,5.5,-0.8,1.2,-1.7],["RI",21.2,28.4,28,16.6,21.2,14.2],["SC",-17.3,-9.1,-10.6,-14.9,-11.9,-18.1],["SD",-21.8,-8.6,-18.4,-31.9,-26.9,-29.9],["TN",-14.4,-15.3,-20.7,-27.2,-23.7,-30.1],["TX",-23,-11.9,-16,-9.4,-5.7,-13.9],["UT",-46.7,-29.1,-49.3,-24.8,-21.4,-22.2],["VA",-8.3,6.4,3.9,5.7,10.3,5.9],["VT",20.6,37.8,36.5,30.4,36.6,32.8],["WA",7.3,17.5,15.3,17.6,19.9,18.9],["WI",0.4,14.1,6.9,-0.8,0.6,-0.9],["WV",-13,-13.3,-27.3,-44.3,-39.6,-42.7],["WY",-40.6,-33.1,-42.3,-51.4,-45,-47]]},"states":[{"fips":"02","name":"Alaska","region":"West","state":"AK"},{"fips":"01","name":"Alabama","region":"South","state":"AL"},{"fips":"05","name":"Arkansas","region":"South","state":"AR"},{"fips":"04","name":"Arizona","region":"West","state":"AZ"},{"fips":"06","name":"California","region":"West","state":"CA"},{"fips":"08","name":"Colorado","region":"West","state":"CO"},{"fips":"09","name":"Connecticut","region":"Northeast","state":"CT"},{"fips":"11","name":"District of Columbia","region":"South","state":"DC"},{"fips":"10","name":"Delaware","region":"South","state":"DE"},{"fips":"12","name":"Florida","region":"South","state":"FL"},{"fips":"13","name":"Georgia","region":"South","state":"GA"},{"fips":"15","name":"Hawaii","region":"West","state":"HI"},{"fips":"19","name":"Iowa","region":"Midwest","state":"IA"},{"fips":"16","name":"Idaho","region":"West","state":"ID"},{"fips":"17","name":"Illinois","region":"Midwest","state":"IL"},{"fips":"18","name":"Indiana","region":"Midwest","state":"IN"},{"fips":"20","name":"Kansas","region":"Midwest","state":"KS"},{"fips":"21","name":"Kentucky","region":"South","state":"KY"},{"fips":"22","name":"Louisiana","region":"South","state":"LA"},{"fips":"25","name":"Massachusetts","region":"Northeast","state":"MA"},{"fips":"24","name":"Maryland","region":"South","state":"MD"},{"fips":"23","name":"Maine","region":"Northeast","state":"ME"},{"fips":"26","name":"Michigan","region":"Midwest","state":"MI"},{"fips":"27","name":"Minnesota","region":"Midwest","state":"MN"},{"fips":"29","name":"Missouri","region":"Midwest","state":"MO"},{"fips":"28","name":"Mississippi","region":"South","state":"MS"},{"fips":"30","name":"Montana","region":"West","state":"MT"},{"fips":"37","name":"North Carolina","region":"South","state":"NC"},{"fips":"38","name":"North Dakota","region":"Midwest","state":"ND"},{"fips":"31","name":"Nebraska","region":"Midwest","state":"NE"},{"fips":"33","name":"New Hampshire","region":"Northeast","state":"NH"},{"fips":"34","name":"New Jersey","region":"Northeast","state":"NJ"},{"fips":"35","name":"New Mexico","region":"West","state":"NM"},{"fips":"32","name":"Nevada","region":"West","state":"NV"},{"fips":"36","name":"New York","region":"Northeast","state":"NY"},{"fips":"39","name":"Ohio","region":"Midwest","state":"OH"},{"fips":"40","name":"Oklahoma","region":"South","state":"OK"},{"fips":"41","name":"Oregon","region":"West","state":"OR"},{"fips":"42","name":"Pennsylvania","region":"Northeast","state":"PA"},{"fips":"44","name":"Rhode Island","region":"Northeast","state":"RI"},{"fips":"45","name":"South Carolina","region":"South","state":"SC"},{"fips":"46","name":"South Dakota","region":"Midwest","state":"SD"},{"fips":"47","name":"Tennessee","region":"South","state":"TN"},{"fips":"48","name":"Texas","region":"South","state":"TX"},{"fips":"49","name":"Utah","region":"West","state":"UT"},{"fips":"51","name":"Virginia","region":"South","state":"VA"},{"fips":"50","name":"Vermont","region":"Northeast","state":"VT"},{"fips":"53","name":"Washington","region":"West","state":"WA"},{"fips":"55","name":"Wisconsin","region":"Midwest","state":"WI"},{"fips":"54","name":"West Virginia","region":"South","state":"WV"},{"fips":"56","name":"Wyoming","region":"West","state":"WY"}],"themes":[{"issues":["abortion_legal","abortion_ban20","abortion_defund"],"key":"abortion","label":"Abortion"},{"issues":["guns_assault_ban","guns_bg_checks","guns_conceal"],"key":"guns","label":"Guns"},{"issues":["immig_deport","immig_legalize","immig_wall","immig_cut_legal"],"key":"immigration","label":"Immigration"},{"issues":["climate_epa_co2","climate_fueleff"],"key":"climate","label":"Climate"},{"issues":["health_aca_repeal","health_m4a"],"key":"health","label":"Health care"},{"issues":["lgbt_marriage"],"key":"lgbt","label":"LGBT"},{"issues":["spend_education","spend_welfare","spend_health","spend_police"],"key":"spending","label":"Spending"},{"issues":["trade_tariff_china"],"key":"trade","label":"Trade"}],"title":"Issues","traits":[{"key":"education","kind":"ordinal","label":"Education","short":"Education level","unit":"one education level (six levels, no high school to postgraduate degree)"},{"key":"income","kind":"ordinal","label":"Family income","short":"Family income bracket","unit":"one income bracket (five brackets, under $30,000 to $150,000 or more)"},{"key":"age","kind":"numeric","label":"Age","short":"Age","unit":"one year of age"},{"key":"female","kind":"binary","label":"Female","short":"Female (against male)","unit":"female against male"},{"key":"nonwhite","kind":"binary","label":"Non-White","short":"Not White non-Hispanic","unit":"Black, Hispanic, Asian or other race against White non-Hispanic"},{"key":"born_again","kind":"binary","label":"Born-again or evangelical","short":"Born-again or evangelical","unit":"born-again or evangelical Christian against all others"}],"version":1,"weights":{"note":"weight and weight_cumulative are proportional within every year of the policy battery; weight_cumulative gives every year the same total weight.","pooled":"weight_cumulative","single_year":"weight"}}