# Counties where donors and voters diverge: report

Chapter 7.2 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Counties where donors and voters diverge
- Chapter: 7.2 (Part VII, Giving; Votes, giving and places)
- Question: In which counties does the donor pool lean the opposite way from the vote?
- Dek: In 570 of 2,839 counties, or 20.1%, the reliable donors of 1980 to 2024 lean opposite to the county's 2020 presidential vote, a count that depends on the definition of divergence.
- Grain: places
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-09-30
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - DIME. Stanford DIME public version 4.0, reliable individual donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; years: 1979-2024 (23 election cycles); weights: none (administrative records); counties counted once or weighted by 2020 two-party votes
  - County election returns. County presidential returns, 2020 and 2024 (repaired 1868-2024 file); years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024; weights: none (full counts); two-party votes as weights in the vote-weighted estimates
  - County demographics panel. County demographics panel, 2020 row (decennial population, ACS-based shares interpolated between 2020 and 2024); years: 2000-2024 (election years, interpolated between census and survey anchors); weights: none (full counts and interpolated estimates)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026countieswheredonorsandvotersdiverge

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026countieswheredonorsandvotersdiverge,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Counties where donors and voters diverge},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| count of counties on the two off-diagonal sides of the sign rule | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 570 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | n_div |
| count of counties in the frame | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 2,839 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | n_counties |
| share of counties whose donor lean and vote lean have opposite signs | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 20.1% |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | share_div |
| smallest count of divergent counties across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 112 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | def_div_lo |
| largest count of divergent counties across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 1,030 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | def_div_hi |
| smallest share of counties that are divergent across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 3.9% |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | def_share_lo |
| largest share of counties that are divergent across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 36.3% |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | def_share_hi |
| share of two-party votes cast in divergent counties | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 16.0% |   | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 | DIME | share_div_votes |
| share of reliable donors living in divergent counties | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 12.7% |   | 2,839 | reliable donors | DIME | share_div_donors |
| count of divergent counties | the 100 counties of the frame with the most two-party votes | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 9 |   | 100 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | n_big_div |
| size of the group compared | the counties of the frame with the most two-party votes | 2020 presidential vote | 100 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | big_k |
| correlation of county Democratic share and county donor lean | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | −0.85 | 95% CI −0.87 to −0.83 | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME | r_all_w |
| correlation of county Democratic share and county donor lean | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | −0.67 | 95% CI −0.70 to −0.65 | 2,839 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | r_all_eq |
| count of Democratic-voting counties with a right-leaning donor pool | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 98 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | n_dr |
| count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors that are at least 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 74 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | n_dr_black |
| definition of a group | counties grouped as at least 30% Black | 2020 | 30% |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | County demographics panel | black_cut |
| count of Republican-voting counties with a left-leaning donor pool | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 472 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | n_rl |

## Findings

In 570 of 2,839 counties, or 20.1%, the mean score of the reliable donors who gave from 1980 to 2024 leans opposite to the county's 2020 presidential vote. We call these counties divergent. The count depends on the definition, and Table 10 gives counts from 112 to 1,030 counties, or 3.9% to 36.3% of the counties under each definition.

A county's donor lean is the mean CFscore of its reliable donors, on a scale where negative is left and positive is right, and a county is divergent when it voted Democratic and its donor lean is right of zero, or voted Republican and its donor lean is left of zero. The donors are those whose most recent county in the DIME files is that county, so a county's pool spans giving from 1980 to 2024 while the vote is a single election. Divergent counties cast 16.0% of the two-party votes and hold 12.7% of the reliable donors, a smaller share than their 20.1% of counties, and 9 of the 100 counties with the most votes are divergent.

Donor lean and the vote move together across counties. Donor lean falls as the Democratic share rises, with a correlation of −0.85 (95% CI −0.87 to −0.83) when counties are weighted by their votes and −0.67 (95% CI −0.70 to −0.65) when each county counts once. The exceptions come in two groups. 98 Democratic-voting counties have right-leaning donors, and 74 of them are at least 30% Black. 472 Republican-voting counties have left-leaning donors, and they appear in every region. Zero is where the CFscore scale changes sign, and it is not the middle of the data; the next section returns to this.

Table 1. Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors cluster in the South; Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are in every region

### How donors and votes are measured

The donor data are the Stanford DIME files [1]. DIME gives each individual donor one CFscore, estimated from the recipients the donor gave to, and one most recent county. The file holds 36.4 million donors with a score and a county. This chapter keeps the 4.7 million of them (13.0%) who are reliable, meaning that they gave to at least 8 distinct recipients and that their score comes from their own giving. A county's pool is its reliable donors, and a county enters the analysis when its pool has at least 25 donors (the pool floor) and it has a 2020 return. That leaves 2,839 counties with 4.7 million reliable donors. The county vote is the Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote.

Zero is where the CFscore scale changes sign, and it is not the middle of the data. Reliable donors average −0.274 (95% CI −0.275 to −0.273) on the scale, so the pool as a whole leans left, while the average county has a donor lean of +0.18, because the counties with the most donors lean left. A county called left-leaning here can therefore sit to the right of the average donor, and 368 of the 472 Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors do. The standard deviation of reliable donors' scores is 1.01, which is the scale for reading a county lean such as the 0.25 cut used below.

Two weightings appear throughout. A count or share of counties counts each county once. A correlation or regression is reported under both weightings, counting each county once and weighting by 2020 two-party votes, because the two answer different questions: whether a pattern holds place by place, and whether it holds where voters live. (Note: Intervals on correlations are 95% confidence intervals from a bootstrap, which recomputes the correlation on many random resamples of the counties, drawn with a fixed seed, and reads the interval from the spread of the results. Counts and shares of counties are full counts and carry no interval. The mean of a single county's donors has a standard error, which the map tooltip, the named counties and the section on pool size use.) The distribution of donor scores over time is the subject of Chapter 7.1, The ideology of the donor pool (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-ideology-of-the-donor-pool), and where the donors live is the subject of Planned, The geography of donations (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-geography-of-donations; planned).

### Donor lean tracks the vote in most counties

Table 1 marks the divergent counties against the counties where donors and vote lean the same way. Among the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, 89 are in the South, 6 in the West, 3 in the Midwest and 0 in the Northeast. Mississippi alone has 16. The Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are spread across the Midwest (184), the South (139), the West (76) and the Northeast (73). The first group casts 4.5% of the two-party votes and the second 11.6%.

Table 2 puts the same two measures on axes. Divergent counties are the dots in the upper right and lower left quadrants, and many lie close to a cut point. Of the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, 38.8% have a Democratic share below 55% and 50.0% have a donor lean within 0.25 of zero. The same shares for Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are 19.9% (a Democratic share of 45% or more) and 73.1%. The tooltip of the map flags the counties that clear both cut points. They number 112. Of these, 27 are Democratic-voting counties with a Democratic share of 55% or more and a donor lean of 0.25 or more, 26 of them in the South. The Republican-voting counties among them, with a share below 45% and a donor lean below minus 0.25, number 85 and lie in all four regions. Together they are 3.9% of counties and cast 1.2% of the two-party votes.

Table 2. Donor lean falls as the Democratic share of the vote rises, and the divergent counties lie in the two quadrants where the two measures disagree

A straight line fitted through the county dots by least squares, which minimizes the squared vertical distances, crosses zero at a Democratic share of 45.9% when each county counts once and 44.5% when counties are weighted by their votes. A county at an even split of the vote is expected to have donors a little left of zero. 76 of the 472 Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors have a Democratic share at or above the first crossing. The median Democratic-voting county with right-leaning donors gave 57.6% of its two-party vote to the Democratic candidate.

### Democratic-voting exceptions are counties with large Black populations

74 of the 98 Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors are at least 30% Black. Among Democratic-voting counties at that Black share, 58.7% (74 of 126) have right-leaning donors, against 6.5% of the 372 others (Table 3). Pools are smaller in these counties, and a small pool gives a noisy mean. The median Democratic-voting county at least 30% Black has 170 reliable donors, against 3,193 in the others. The gap between the two groups of counties remains when small pools are dropped (Table 4). (Note: The Black share analyses use the 498 Democratic-voting counties that have a Black share, a college share and a median household income in the 2020 demographic file. The counties of Connecticut lack all three there and drop out of these analyses only. Regression standard errors are clustered on the 46 states in this set.)

Table 3. Right-leaning donors are more common in Democratic-voting counties that are at least 30% Black: 58.7% of them, against 6.5% of the rest

Table 4. At every pool floor, a larger share of Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black than of the rest have right-leaning donors

Among the 498 Democratic-voting counties with a Black share, the correlation between donor lean and Black share is +0.62 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.69) when each county counts once and +0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.37) when counties are weighted by their votes (Table 5). Both intervals lie above zero, and the weighted correlation is smaller. 9 of the 10 counties at least 30% Black with the most voters, among them Philadelphia, Prince George's County in Maryland and Fulton County in Georgia, have donors left of zero. The exception is Jefferson County in Alabama. The Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black with right-leaning donors have a median of 10,804 two-party votes, against 73,872 for those with left-leaning donors.

Table 5. Among Democratic-voting counties, donor lean rises with Black share, and less steeply when counties are weighted by votes

A regression of donor lean on Black share fits a straight line and reports how far donor lean moves for each 10 points of Black share (Table 6). With standard errors clustered by state, the coefficient stays above zero after adjusting for college share and median household income when each county counts once, and its interval includes zero when counties are weighted by their votes. A higher college share goes with a more left-leaning donor pool in both weightings.

Table 6. The adjusted Black share slope is above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by votes

Counties with a large Black share are not the only ones. 10 of the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors are at least 50% Hispanic and under 30% Black, 8 of them in Texas, mostly in South Texas. Of the other 14, 9 have a Democratic share below 55%, such as Tarrant County in Texas, which voted almost evenly and has a donor lean close to zero.

Table 7 names the counties at the two ends, among counties with at least 75 reliable donors. The Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors are mostly Mississippi counties, with counties in Georgia and Louisiana. Education and income gradients in the donor pool and in the vote are compared in Planned, The geography of donations (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-geography-of-donations; planned).

Table 7. Mississippi holds 7 of the 10 Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors

### Pool size moves the two sides in opposite directions

Table 8 groups counties by the number of reliable donors. The share of Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors falls from 78.6% in the smallest pools to 6.3% in the largest, and the share of Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors rises from 12.9% to 36.5%. The median county in the analysis has 229 reliable donors, and the median Democratic-voting county with right-leaning donors has 117. 45 of the 98 Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors have fewer than 100 reliable donors, so the average in those counties rests on few donors.

Table 8. Democratic-voting counties diverge mostly in small pools, Republican-voting counties in large ones

A small pool also gives a noisy mean. If each county's donors are a random draw from a larger set, the expected number of counties whose observed sign differs from the sign of the underlying mean is 138 (4.9%). Among the 570 divergent counties the expected number is 56 (9.8%). That benchmark uses only each county's own donors and is a lower bound. A version that shrinks each county mean toward a straight line fitted through the county dots gives 83 (14.5%), and the derivation of both is in the methods note. Noise of that size moves some counties across the line and leaves most divergent counties divergent. Noise is more likely to move the sign of a county in the group with a large Black share, where pools are smaller. The comparison of shares at pool floors of 100 and 500 donors in Table 4 is the check on this, and the gap remains.

### Republican-voting exceptions are the less Republican counties

With zero as the neutral point, the Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are a larger group than the Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors (472 against 98). The order reverses when the mean CFscore of all reliable donors is the neutral point (104 against 240). Their median county voted 38.4% Democratic, against 26.2% in the median Republican-voting county with right-leaning donors, and their median college share is 24.2%, against 19.6%. Table 9 shows that the share of Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors is highest in the Northeast and lowest in the South. Table 7 lists the 10 with the most left-leaning donors, in 7 states, and none is at least 30% Black. The size of this group depends on the donor definition and on the neutral point, as the next section shows.

Table 9. Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are 63.5% of Northeast counties and 12.5% of Southern ones

### The counts depend on the definition

Table 10 repeats the count under other definitions. Changing the donor pool, the vote year or the pool floor moves the Democratic-voting group between 62 and 188 counties and the Republican-voting group between 113 and 542. Moving the neutral point is a larger change. With the mean of all reliable donors (−0.274) the groups are 240 and 104, and with the median county (+0.19) they are 57 and 973, which makes 36.3% of counties divergent. Counting all donors with a score, which brings in donors with few recipients and donors whose score is inherited from a recipient, reverses the balance of the two groups, to 188 and 113 on a set of 3,105 counties.

Table 10. The number of divergent counties runs from 112 to 1,030 across the definitions tested

The Black share pattern survives the changes of donor definition when each county counts once. The correlation of donor lean with Black share among Democratic-voting counties is +0.60 with the stricter donor definition and +0.55 with all donors. The vote-weighted correlation with all donors is +0.06, close to zero. Both groups exist under every definition, and the number in each changes with the definition. The counts in this chapter therefore describe reliable donors with zero as the neutral point, and they should not be read as the number of counties where donors disagree with voters in general.

### The Black share gap appears in every donor cohort

A donor's CFscore is fixed, so donors who first gave in different election cycles form groups with different average scores. Reliable donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 average +0.228 (95% CI 0.225 to 0.230), those who first gave in 1998 to 2008 average −0.081, and those who first gave in 2010 to 2016 and in 2018 to 2024 average −0.467 and −0.457. Within each cohort, the difference in mean donor lean between Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black and other Democratic-voting counties is 0.19 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.28) CFscore units for donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 and 0.32 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.40) for 2018 to 2024. Every cohort's interval lies above zero (Table 11). A county needs at least 25 donors from the cohort to count, so the county set changes between cohorts. 59 of the 374 Democratic-voting counties with a pool in every cohort are at least 30% Black, and in that fixed set the difference runs from 0.16 to 0.31. (Note: Counting the counties whose cohort pool leans right mixes the gap with the difference between cohorts in where the whole pool sits. Among Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black, 86.8% have a right-leaning pool for donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 and 22.5% for 2018 to 2024. The data table of the cohort figure gives all four cohorts.)

Table 11. Counties at least 30% Black sit to the right of other Democratic-voting counties in every donor cohort

The level differs by cohort. In the oldest cohort both groups of counties average right of zero. In the two cohorts that first gave in 2010 or later both average left of zero, with the counties at least 30% Black further right than the others. The newer cohorts are larger (1.5 million donors for 2018 to 2024, against 0.4 million for 1980 to 1996). A cohort is defined by the first election cycle in which a donor appears, so a difference between cohorts is a difference in who gave. The gap also holds under a stricter rule for a reliable donor. With at least 15 distinct recipients it runs from 0.19 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.30) to 0.35 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.45) CFscore units across the four cohorts, and every interval lies above zero. The reliable rule keeps 19.3% of the donors who first gave in 1980 to 1996 and 9.6% of those who first gave in 2018 to 2024, so a cohort comparison inherits a rule that selects different shares of donors in different eras.

### What these data cannot show

A county's donor lean describes the donors in the county and not any resident, and a pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among people, the problem known as ecological inference [2]. DIME does not record the race, income or vote of a donor, so the Black share results say that donor leans differ between counties with different Black shares and cannot say who the donors in those counties are. Studies that observe donors directly find that Black and Latino donors supply smaller shares of contributions than of the population [3], and a study that merges survey responses to donation records compares donors with non-donors [4]. Those studies are about individuals and neither tests nor contradicts the county pattern here.

The files do not say which candidates a donor gave to. A CFscore is an estimate from the recipients' positions, and the chapter cannot separate a donor who gives to Republican candidates from one who gives to moderate Democrats. Geography is the most recent record, so a donor who moved is counted where the last gift came from, and a county's pool spans giving from 1980 to 2024 while the vote is a single election. The reliable-donor rule keeps the donors who gave to many recipients, and the counts in Table 10 change when it is relaxed. No threshold below 8 distinct recipients was tested. The divergence rule pivots on the sign of a mean at zero, which is not the middle of the county distribution, since the median county has a donor lean of +0.19.

The chapter also leaves out donor dollars, and it does not test any mechanism. Whether the donor lean of a county reflects who can give or who is asked cannot be separated with county means. How a county's stated ideology compares with its donors' is the subject of Planned, Stated and funded ideology (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/stated-and-funded-ideology; planned), and how donors who live in counties their side lost behave is the subject of Planned, Partisans in the other party's territory (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/partisans-outvoted-at-home; planned). A county with a small pool has a noisy mean, and the intervals on individual counties treat donors as independent draws, which understates the uncertainty if donors in a county resemble each other.

## Tables

### Table 1. Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors cluster in the South; Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are in every region

Counties classed by whether the 2020 two-party presidential vote and the mean CFscore of the county's reliable donors lean the same way (negative CFscore is left, positive is right)

No inline rows: the values of Table 1 are in https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/donor_vote_map.json.

Note: A county with too few reliable donors, and every county in Alaska and Hawaii, which have no donors in the county-matched donor file, is drawn as no data.

Note: Votes are full counts. The tooltip gives a county's donor lean with a 95% interval that treats its reliable donors as independent draws, and the number of reliable donors; a county with a small pool has a wide interval.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/donor_vote_map.json

### Table 2. Donor lean falls as the Democratic share of the vote rises, and the divergent counties lie in the two quadrants where the two measures disagree

Mean CFscore of reliable donors against the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, one dot per county (n = 2,839 counties), 2020 vote

| County | Democratic share (%) | Donor lean (mean CFscore) | Donor lean, 95% interval, low | Donor lean, 95% interval, high | Two-party votes | Reliable donors | Group |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Autauga, AL | 27.4 | +0.680 | +0.54 | +0.82 | 27,341 | 223 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baldwin, AL | 22.7 | +0.364 | +0.31 | +0.42 | 108,122 | 1,914 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Barbour, AL | 46.1 | +0.441 | +0.24 | +0.64 | 10,438 | 100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bibb, AL | 20.9 | +0.700 | +0.43 | +0.97 | 9,511 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Blount, AL | 9.7 | +0.468 | +0.29 | +0.64 | 27,351 | 158 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bullock, AL | 75.0 | +0.369 | +0.04 | +0.69 | 4,592 | 40 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Butler, AL | 42.1 | +0.759 | +0.53 | +0.98 | 9,423 | 61 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Calhoun, AL | 30.2 | +0.462 | +0.37 | +0.55 | 50,317 | 522 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chambers, AL | 42.1 | +0.485 | +0.25 | +0.72 | 15,118 | 83 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cherokee, AL | 13.3 | +0.572 | +0.37 | +0.78 | 12,207 | 121 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chilton, AL | 16.0 | +0.650 | +0.45 | +0.85 | 19,158 | 112 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clarke, AL | 44.0 | +0.584 | +0.35 | +0.82 | 13,079 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clay, AL | 18.4 | +0.740 | +0.50 | +0.98 | 6,868 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cleburne, AL | 9.4 | +0.852 | +0.54 | +1.16 | 7,159 | 35 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coffee, AL | 23.1 | +0.690 | +0.57 | +0.82 | 21,975 | 258 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Colbert, AL | 30.3 | +0.335 | +0.20 | +0.47 | 27,546 | 259 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Conecuh, AL | 46.3 | +0.734 | +0.41 | +1.06 | 6,408 | 32 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coosa, AL | 33.1 | +0.357 | −0.07 | +0.78 | 5,427 | 27 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Covington, AL | 15.7 | +0.421 | +0.24 | +0.61 | 17,307 | 140 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crenshaw, AL | 25.9 | +0.425 | +0.07 | +0.78 | 6,564 | 31 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cullman, AL | 10.8 | +0.516 | +0.40 | +0.63 | 41,358 | 355 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dale, AL | 26.5 | +0.590 | +0.43 | +0.75 | 19,473 | 184 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dallas, AL | 68.9 | +0.209 | +0.03 | +0.39 | 17,754 | 138 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| DeKalb, AL | 14.7 | +0.385 | +0.25 | +0.52 | 29,048 | 243 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Elmore, AL | 25.6 | +0.557 | +0.44 | +0.68 | 40,531 | 344 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Escambia, AL | 31.2 | +0.895 | +0.75 | +1.04 | 15,787 | 120 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Etowah, AL | 24.6 | +0.381 | +0.28 | +0.48 | 47,095 | 475 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fayette, AL | 16.0 | +0.727 | +0.46 | +0.99 | 8,695 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Franklin, AL | 16.7 | +0.546 | +0.34 | +0.75 | 12,462 | 88 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Geneva, AL | 12.8 | +0.967 | +0.76 | +1.18 | 12,443 | 68 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greene, AL | 81.6 | +0.066 | −0.29 | +0.42 | 4,759 | 29 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Hale, AL | 59.5 | +0.792 | +0.49 | +1.09 | 7,877 | 35 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Henry, AL | 28.3 | +0.755 | +0.47 | +1.04 | 9,213 | 53 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Houston, AL | 28.4 | +0.697 | +0.61 | +0.78 | 45,535 | 592 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, AL | 15.9 | +0.341 | +0.16 | +0.52 | 23,387 | 166 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, AL | 56.7 | +0.060 | +0.03 | +0.09 | 320,531 | 6,805 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Lamar, AL | 13.7 | +0.656 | +0.36 | +0.96 | 7,152 | 42 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lauderdale, AL | 27.3 | +0.219 | +0.13 | +0.31 | 43,636 | 574 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lawrence, AL | 22.4 | +0.357 | +0.10 | +0.61 | 15,884 | 78 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, AL | 39.8 | +0.137 | +0.07 | +0.20 | 70,081 | 1,117 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Limestone, AL | 28.3 | +0.348 | +0.24 | +0.45 | 48,312 | 490 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lowndes, AL | 73.0 | +0.581 | +0.22 | +0.94 | 6,808 | 32 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Macon, AL | 82.2 | −0.281 | −0.49 | −0.07 | 8,649 | 90 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madison, AL | 45.9 | +0.137 | +0.10 | +0.17 | 190,066 | 4,343 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marengo, AL | 50.7 | +0.433 | +0.17 | +0.70 | 10,831 | 64 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Marion, AL | 10.7 | +0.541 | +0.37 | +0.71 | 13,668 | 119 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marshall, AL | 15.2 | +0.619 | +0.52 | +0.72 | 39,134 | 433 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mobile, AL | 44.0 | +0.429 | +0.39 | +0.47 | 180,717 | 2,624 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, AL | 42.0 | +0.713 | +0.47 | +0.96 | 10,602 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montgomery, AL | 66.0 | +0.312 | +0.27 | +0.35 | 97,840 | 2,364 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Morgan, AL | 25.0 | +0.442 | +0.36 | +0.53 | 52,898 | 653 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pickens, AL | 41.8 | +0.589 | +0.34 | +0.84 | 9,616 | 54 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pike, AL | 41.2 | +0.653 | +0.50 | +0.81 | 13,678 | 145 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Randolph, AL | 20.5 | +0.591 | +0.32 | +0.87 | 10,762 | 58 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Russell, AL | 53.2 | −0.042 | −0.23 | +0.14 | 21,092 | 143 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Clair, AL | 17.6 | +0.481 | +0.35 | +0.61 | 43,910 | 309 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Shelby, AL | 29.4 | +0.373 | +0.32 | +0.43 | 112,968 | 1,769 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sumter, AL | 74.4 | +0.470 | +0.19 | +0.75 | 6,246 | 56 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Talladega, AL | 37.1 | +0.472 | +0.35 | +0.60 | 35,373 | 277 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tallapoosa, AL | 28.1 | +0.527 | +0.37 | +0.68 | 20,822 | 179 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tuscaloosa, AL | 42.5 | +0.137 | +0.08 | +0.20 | 88,882 | 1,319 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Walker, AL | 15.7 | +0.659 | +0.55 | +0.77 | 30,836 | 265 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, AL | 25.6 | +0.546 | +0.19 | +0.90 | 8,822 | 36 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilcox, AL | 68.8 | +0.643 | +0.34 | +0.95 | 5,881 | 36 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Winston, AL | 8.7 | +0.666 | +0.44 | +0.89 | 11,169 | 79 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Apache, AZ | 67.1 | +0.003 | −0.15 | +0.16 | 34,735 | 245 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Cochise, AZ | 40.0 | −0.097 | −0.15 | −0.04 | 59,289 | 1,742 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Coconino, AZ | 62.3 | −0.528 | −0.56 | −0.49 | 71,750 | 2,490 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gila, AZ | 32.7 | +0.207 | +0.11 | +0.30 | 27,320 | 610 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Graham, AZ | 27.3 | +0.370 | +0.19 | +0.55 | 14,783 | 166 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greenlee, AZ | 32.7 | +0.005 | −0.34 | +0.35 | 3,615 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| La Paz, AZ | 30.4 | +0.640 | +0.43 | +0.85 | 7,365 | 120 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Maricopa, AZ | 51.1 | −0.112 | −0.12 | −0.10 | 2,036,439 | 60,280 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mohave, AZ | 24.0 | +0.447 | +0.39 | +0.50 | 103,366 | 1,858 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Navajo, AZ | 45.8 | +0.232 | +0.14 | +0.32 | 51,040 | 729 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pima, AZ | 59.5 | −0.427 | −0.44 | −0.41 | 512,739 | 23,180 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pinal, AZ | 41.2 | −0.069 | −0.11 | −0.03 | 182,183 | 3,495 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Santa Cruz, AZ | 68.0 | −0.435 | −0.52 | −0.35 | 19,332 | 550 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yavapai, AZ | 35.1 | −0.070 | −0.10 | −0.04 | 141,129 | 5,698 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Yuma, AZ | 46.9 | +0.357 | +0.29 | +0.43 | 68,744 | 1,150 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Arkansas, AR | 29.7 | +0.309 | +0.18 | +0.44 | 6,122 | 129 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ashley, AR | 27.7 | +0.631 | +0.44 | +0.83 | 7,673 | 78 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baxter, AR | 22.6 | +0.355 | +0.24 | +0.47 | 20,471 | 365 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Benton, AR | 36.4 | +0.144 | +0.10 | +0.19 | 116,214 | 2,249 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boone, AR | 18.3 | +0.382 | +0.25 | +0.52 | 16,716 | 226 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bradley, AR | 34.2 | +0.305 | +0.09 | +0.52 | 3,549 | 53 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Carroll, AR | 35.1 | −0.496 | −0.60 | −0.39 | 11,447 | 327 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Chicot, AR | 56.3 | +0.532 | +0.31 | +0.75 | 4,012 | 55 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Clark, AR | 42.7 | −0.062 | −0.19 | +0.06 | 8,054 | 194 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Clay, AR | 19.1 | +0.206 | −0.03 | +0.44 | 5,048 | 55 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cleburne, AR | 16.1 | +0.530 | +0.39 | +0.67 | 12,316 | 206 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cleveland, AR | 18.5 | +0.745 | +0.49 | +1.00 | 3,518 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Columbia, AR | 33.8 | +0.553 | +0.42 | +0.69 | 8,314 | 163 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Conway, AR | 31.5 | +0.284 | +0.10 | +0.47 | 8,309 | 123 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Craighead, AR | 31.8 | +0.254 | +0.18 | +0.33 | 37,479 | 729 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crawford, AR | 21.0 | +0.366 | +0.22 | +0.51 | 23,566 | 222 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crittenden, AR | 53.7 | +0.298 | +0.15 | +0.44 | 15,847 | 204 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Cross, AR | 26.4 | +0.092 | −0.06 | +0.24 | 6,718 | 125 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Desha, AR | 51.2 | +0.270 | +0.08 | +0.46 | 3,937 | 61 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Drew, AR | 35.8 | +0.426 | +0.23 | +0.63 | 6,775 | 95 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Faulkner, AR | 34.8 | +0.105 | +0.04 | +0.17 | 52,768 | 860 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Franklin, AR | 18.6 | +0.355 | +0.11 | +0.60 | 6,977 | 70 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fulton, AR | 20.7 | +0.331 | 0.00 | +0.66 | 4,996 | 49 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Garland, AR | 32.6 | +0.085 | +0.02 | +0.15 | 43,114 | 1,070 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Grant, AR | 15.7 | +0.292 | +0.05 | +0.53 | 8,062 | 81 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greene, AR | 19.4 | +0.290 | +0.16 | +0.42 | 15,728 | 201 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hempstead, AR | 32.4 | +0.477 | +0.27 | +0.69 | 6,608 | 72 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hot Spring, AR | 25.1 | +0.262 | +0.06 | +0.47 | 12,284 | 116 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Howard, AR | 28.5 | +0.155 | −0.10 | +0.41 | 4,707 | 55 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Independence, AR | 20.0 | +0.221 | +0.10 | +0.34 | 14,056 | 252 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Izard, AR | 18.1 | +0.189 | −0.08 | +0.46 | 5,652 | 58 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, AR | 27.5 | +0.181 | +0.02 | +0.35 | 4,958 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, AR | 61.1 | +0.163 | +0.07 | +0.25 | 24,502 | 388 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Johnson, AR | 24.8 | +0.077 | −0.15 | +0.30 | 9,221 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lafayette, AR | 32.3 | +0.576 | +0.24 | +0.91 | 2,596 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lawrence, AR | 19.1 | +0.620 | +0.37 | +0.87 | 5,649 | 50 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, AR | 52.5 | +0.409 | +0.20 | +0.62 | 2,709 | 41 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Little River, AR | 24.8 | +0.536 | +0.15 | +0.92 | 4,941 | 31 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Logan, AR | 19.3 | +0.330 | +0.10 | +0.56 | 7,985 | 78 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lonoke, AR | 22.6 | +0.404 | +0.30 | +0.51 | 29,570 | 366 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madison, AR | 21.6 | +0.046 | −0.22 | +0.32 | 7,221 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marion, AR | 20.9 | +0.175 | −0.04 | +0.39 | 7,314 | 115 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Miller, AR | 26.3 | +0.414 | +0.26 | +0.56 | 16,165 | 174 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mississippi, AR | 38.5 | +0.358 | +0.23 | +0.49 | 11,854 | 168 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, AR | 42.6 | +0.596 | +0.31 | +0.88 | 2,692 | 35 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montgomery, AR | 19.4 | −0.025 | −0.46 | +0.41 | 3,777 | 27 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Nevada, AR | 33.5 | −0.148 | −0.43 | +0.13 | 3,209 | 32 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Newton, AR | 18.2 | −0.475 | −0.76 | −0.19 | 3,901 | 47 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Ouachita, AR | 43.0 | +0.482 | +0.31 | +0.66 | 9,289 | 131 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Perry, AR | 22.5 | +0.252 | −0.09 | +0.60 | 4,491 | 38 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Phillips, AR | 60.0 | −0.002 | −0.17 | +0.16 | 6,040 | 101 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pike, AR | 15.5 | +0.292 | −0.08 | +0.67 | 4,163 | 32 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Poinsett, AR | 19.4 | +0.341 | +0.14 | +0.54 | 7,342 | 80 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Polk, AR | 15.0 | +0.324 | +0.10 | +0.55 | 8,281 | 99 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pope, AR | 24.2 | +0.320 | +0.21 | +0.43 | 23,853 | 387 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Prairie, AR | 19.0 | +0.301 | 0.00 | +0.61 | 3,440 | 38 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pulaski, AR | 61.5 | −0.163 | −0.19 | −0.14 | 165,634 | 6,188 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Randolph, AR | 18.5 | +0.174 | −0.07 | +0.42 | 6,570 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Francis, AR | 52.6 | +0.051 | −0.12 | +0.23 | 6,846 | 101 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Saline, AR | 28.9 | +0.318 | +0.23 | +0.41 | 55,616 | 707 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Searcy, AR | 14.9 | +0.434 | +0.06 | +0.81 | 3,953 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sebastian, AR | 31.7 | +0.359 | +0.29 | +0.43 | 45,685 | 795 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sevier, AR | 22.3 | +0.219 | −0.07 | +0.51 | 5,000 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sharp, AR | 19.1 | +0.318 | +0.08 | +0.56 | 7,336 | 82 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Stone, AR | 20.4 | −0.072 | −0.31 | +0.16 | 5,796 | 86 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Union, AR | 34.8 | +0.616 | +0.53 | +0.71 | 16,062 | 328 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Van Buren, AR | 20.9 | +0.008 | −0.22 | +0.24 | 7,627 | 96 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, AR | 48.0 | −0.346 | −0.39 | −0.31 | 91,328 | 2,238 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| White, AR | 19.8 | +0.410 | +0.31 | +0.51 | 30,160 | 392 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Woodruff, AR | 35.7 | +0.129 | −0.14 | +0.40 | 2,399 | 36 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yell, AR | 19.7 | +0.370 | +0.12 | +0.61 | 6,510 | 67 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alameda, CA | 81.9 | −0.840 | −0.85 | −0.83 | 753,968 | 39,788 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alpine, CA | 66.1 | −0.565 | −0.86 | −0.27 | 720 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Amador, CA | 37.5 | −0.183 | −0.27 | −0.09 | 21,738 | 601 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Butte, CA | 50.9 | −0.425 | −0.46 | −0.39 | 99,156 | 3,195 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Calaveras, CA | 37.8 | −0.346 | −0.42 | −0.27 | 26,564 | 752 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Colusa, CA | 41.5 | +0.603 | +0.46 | +0.75 | 7,788 | 191 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Contra Costa, CA | 73.1 | −0.706 | −0.71 | −0.70 | 569,263 | 32,404 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Del Norte, CA | 42.0 | −0.404 | −0.52 | −0.28 | 11,138 | 296 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| El Dorado, CA | 45.5 | −0.318 | −0.35 | −0.28 | 113,459 | 3,482 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Fresno, CA | 54.0 | −0.054 | −0.08 | −0.03 | 357,489 | 6,335 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Glenn, CA | 36.1 | +0.410 | +0.26 | +0.56 | 11,058 | 222 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Humboldt, CA | 67.3 | −0.733 | −0.76 | −0.70 | 66,538 | 2,877 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Imperial, CA | 62.5 | +0.191 | +0.10 | +0.28 | 55,525 | 619 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Inyo, CA | 50.1 | −0.354 | −0.46 | −0.24 | 9,254 | 367 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Kern, CA | 44.8 | +0.166 | +0.13 | +0.20 | 297,850 | 4,703 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Kings, CA | 43.7 | +0.363 | +0.27 | +0.46 | 42,771 | 557 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lake, CA | 53.2 | −0.516 | −0.58 | −0.45 | 28,064 | 886 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lassen, CA | 23.8 | +0.236 | +0.06 | +0.41 | 11,769 | 190 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Los Angeles, CA | 72.6 | −0.592 | −0.60 | −0.59 | 4,174,415 | 163,108 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madera, CA | 44.1 | +0.063 | −0.01 | +0.13 | 52,546 | 1,085 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Marin, CA | 83.9 | −0.808 | −0.82 | −0.80 | 152,900 | 17,069 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mariposa, CA | 40.7 | −0.366 | −0.48 | −0.25 | 10,038 | 342 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Mendocino, CA | 68.4 | −0.787 | −0.82 | −0.76 | 42,049 | 2,280 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Merced, CA | 55.4 | +0.056 | 0.00 | +0.12 | 88,388 | 1,336 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Modoc, CA | 27.0 | −0.146 | −0.39 | +0.10 | 4,259 | 87 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Mono, CA | 61.5 | −0.672 | −0.78 | −0.57 | 6,526 | 246 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monterey, CA | 71.1 | −0.507 | −0.53 | −0.48 | 160,252 | 6,087 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Napa, CA | 70.7 | −0.604 | −0.63 | −0.58 | 70,493 | 3,603 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Nevada, CA | 57.6 | −0.640 | −0.67 | −0.61 | 63,138 | 3,193 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Orange, CA | 54.6 | −0.158 | −0.17 | −0.15 | 1,490,507 | 45,983 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Placer, CA | 46.6 | −0.292 | −0.32 | −0.27 | 229,357 | 6,860 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Plumas, CA | 41.4 | −0.339 | −0.45 | −0.23 | 11,006 | 365 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Riverside, CA | 54.1 | −0.289 | −0.30 | −0.27 | 976,647 | 21,059 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sacramento, CA | 63.0 | −0.518 | −0.53 | −0.51 | 700,213 | 21,776 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Benito, CA | 62.5 | −0.327 | −0.42 | −0.24 | 28,218 | 570 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Bernardino, CA | 55.4 | −0.093 | −0.11 | −0.07 | 822,116 | 12,800 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Diego, CA | 61.6 | −0.356 | −0.36 | −0.35 | 1,564,744 | 54,884 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Francisco, CA | 87.0 | −0.866 | −0.87 | −0.86 | 434,573 | 45,868 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Joaquin, CA | 57.1 | −0.110 | −0.14 | −0.08 | 282,235 | 4,837 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Luis Obispo, CA | 56.7 | −0.497 | −0.52 | −0.47 | 155,746 | 7,100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Mateo, CA | 79.4 | −0.680 | −0.69 | −0.67 | 366,973 | 24,189 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Santa Barbara, CA | 66.4 | −0.523 | −0.54 | −0.50 | 195,699 | 9,410 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Santa Clara, CA | 74.2 | −0.659 | −0.67 | −0.65 | 832,579 | 39,175 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Santa Cruz, CA | 80.9 | −0.829 | −0.84 | −0.82 | 141,183 | 9,842 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Shasta, CA | 33.0 | −0.025 | −0.08 | +0.03 | 90,789 | 2,004 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Sierra, CA | 39.0 | −0.589 | −0.83 | −0.35 | 1,872 | 59 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Siskiyou, CA | 41.9 | −0.376 | −0.45 | −0.30 | 22,883 | 748 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Solano, CA | 65.5 | −0.543 | −0.57 | −0.52 | 200,945 | 5,487 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sonoma, CA | 76.4 | −0.802 | −0.81 | −0.79 | 261,763 | 16,125 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Stanislaus, CA | 50.4 | −0.094 | −0.13 | −0.06 | 209,986 | 3,633 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sutter, CA | 41.6 | +0.353 | +0.28 | +0.43 | 41,742 | 761 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tehama, CA | 31.8 | +0.127 | +0.02 | +0.23 | 28,052 | 471 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Trinity, CA | 47.2 | −0.558 | −0.70 | −0.41 | 6,039 | 161 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Tulare, CA | 46.0 | +0.283 | +0.24 | +0.33 | 143,684 | 2,372 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tuolumne, CA | 40.4 | −0.327 | −0.40 | −0.25 | 29,667 | 904 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Ventura, CA | 60.8 | −0.369 | −0.39 | −0.35 | 413,595 | 13,838 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yolo, CA | 71.2 | −0.707 | −0.73 | −0.69 | 94,890 | 5,165 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yuba, CA | 38.9 | −0.024 | −0.13 | +0.08 | 28,906 | 444 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Adams, CO | 58.4 | −0.280 | −0.31 | −0.25 | 229,859 | 4,579 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alamosa, CO | 49.6 | −0.256 | −0.39 | −0.12 | 7,572 | 218 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Arapahoe, CO | 62.7 | −0.143 | −0.16 | −0.12 | 340,930 | 12,669 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Archuleta, CO | 41.9 | −0.133 | −0.25 | −0.02 | 8,927 | 390 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Baca, CO | 14.5 | +0.857 | +0.56 | +1.15 | 2,184 | 35 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bent, CO | 32.8 | +0.177 | −0.16 | +0.51 | 2,235 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boulder, CO | 78.9 | −0.722 | −0.73 | −0.71 | 201,590 | 16,281 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Broomfield, CO | 64.1 | −0.389 | −0.44 | −0.33 | 45,372 | 1,328 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chaffee, CO | 53.5 | −0.429 | −0.51 | −0.35 | 13,382 | 588 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clear Creek, CO | 56.7 | −0.287 | −0.41 | −0.16 | 6,358 | 280 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Conejos, CO | 46.1 | −0.252 | −0.47 | −0.03 | 4,245 | 73 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Costilla, CO | 63.9 | −0.388 | −0.65 | −0.13 | 2,052 | 54 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crowley, CO | 25.6 | +0.546 | +0.16 | +0.93 | 1,708 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Custer, CO | 31.0 | −0.008 | −0.20 | +0.18 | 3,586 | 150 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Delta, CO | 31.0 | −0.167 | −0.26 | −0.08 | 18,968 | 623 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Denver, CO | 81.4 | −0.617 | −0.63 | −0.61 | 384,911 | 23,946 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dolores, CO | 23.8 | −0.301 | −0.66 | +0.06 | 1,430 | 34 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Douglas, CO | 46.3 | +0.009 | −0.02 | +0.04 | 225,923 | 6,476 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Eagle, CO | 65.3 | −0.381 | −0.43 | −0.33 | 28,480 | 1,278 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Elbert, CO | 24.2 | +0.468 | +0.35 | +0.59 | 18,517 | 384 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| El Paso, CO | 44.4 | +0.075 | +0.05 | +0.10 | 364,769 | 9,653 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fremont, CO | 29.6 | +0.012 | −0.09 | +0.11 | 24,886 | 547 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Garfield, CO | 51.2 | −0.297 | −0.35 | −0.24 | 30,144 | 1,288 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gilpin, CO | 54.8 | −0.415 | −0.57 | −0.26 | 4,056 | 162 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Grand, CO | 49.1 | −0.170 | −0.29 | −0.05 | 9,593 | 321 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Gunnison, CO | 65.6 | −0.516 | −0.60 | −0.43 | 10,867 | 450 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hinsdale, CO | 41.9 | −0.526 | −0.87 | −0.18 | 608 | 28 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Huerfano, CO | 48.5 | −0.318 | −0.49 | −0.15 | 4,279 | 152 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Jefferson, CO | 59.5 | −0.256 | −0.27 | −0.24 | 366,813 | 15,446 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Kit Carson, CO | 17.4 | +0.885 | +0.69 | +1.08 | 3,806 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lake, CO | 60.6 | −0.395 | −0.60 | −0.19 | 3,800 | 96 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| La Plata, CO | 59.1 | −0.451 | −0.49 | −0.41 | 34,781 | 1,929 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Larimer, CO | 58.0 | −0.393 | −0.41 | −0.37 | 217,609 | 8,555 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Las Animas, CO | 44.9 | −0.059 | −0.23 | +0.11 | 7,781 | 178 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Lincoln, CO | 18.0 | +0.797 | +0.53 | +1.06 | 2,605 | 59 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Logan, CO | 21.5 | +0.716 | +0.58 | +0.86 | 10,305 | 214 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mesa, CO | 35.7 | +0.103 | +0.06 | +0.14 | 88,430 | 2,839 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mineral, CO | 42.6 | −0.297 | −0.70 | +0.11 | 744 | 29 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Moffat, CO | 17.5 | +0.549 | +0.35 | +0.74 | 6,873 | 123 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montezuma, CO | 38.5 | −0.171 | −0.27 | −0.07 | 15,142 | 512 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Montrose, CO | 31.4 | +0.061 | −0.02 | +0.14 | 24,457 | 733 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Morgan, CO | 28.8 | +0.367 | +0.20 | +0.53 | 13,469 | 198 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Otero, CO | 38.5 | +0.364 | +0.17 | +0.56 | 9,361 | 136 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ouray, CO | 60.0 | −0.439 | −0.56 | −0.32 | 3,942 | 279 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Park, CO | 41.2 | −0.178 | −0.31 | −0.04 | 11,894 | 281 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Phillips, CO | 19.9 | +0.995 | +0.77 | +1.22 | 2,444 | 57 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pitkin, CO | 76.4 | −0.479 | −0.53 | −0.43 | 11,769 | 1,134 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Prowers, CO | 26.7 | +0.456 | +0.23 | +0.68 | 5,466 | 98 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pueblo, CO | 50.9 | −0.090 | −0.13 | −0.04 | 86,024 | 2,174 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Rio Blanco, CO | 15.5 | +0.518 | +0.23 | +0.80 | 3,622 | 63 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Rio Grande, CO | 40.5 | +0.218 | +0.03 | +0.41 | 6,155 | 140 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Routt, CO | 64.1 | −0.390 | −0.46 | −0.32 | 16,507 | 824 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Saguache, CO | 57.1 | −0.539 | −0.68 | −0.39 | 3,297 | 161 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| San Miguel, CO | 77.5 | −0.701 | −0.77 | −0.63 | 5,060 | 380 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sedgwick, CO | 21.2 | +0.615 | +0.19 | +1.04 | 1,422 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Summit, CO | 70.4 | −0.455 | −0.52 | −0.39 | 17,953 | 818 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Teller, CO | 32.0 | +0.032 | −0.08 | +0.14 | 16,519 | 454 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, CO | 12.4 | +1.023 | +0.79 | +1.26 | 2,964 | 52 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Weld, CO | 40.7 | +0.127 | +0.09 | +0.17 | 162,205 | 3,242 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Yuma, CO | 16.0 | +0.768 | +0.62 | +0.92 | 4,892 | 160 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fairfield, CT | 63.8 | −0.250 | −0.26 | −0.24 | 466,544 | 30,979 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hartford, CT | 64.1 | −0.301 | −0.31 | −0.29 | 442,392 | 20,961 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Litchfield, CT | 47.4 | −0.317 | −0.34 | −0.29 | 105,765 | 5,480 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Middlesex, CT | 58.3 | −0.305 | −0.33 | −0.28 | 97,513 | 5,051 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| New Haven, CT | 58.8 | −0.365 | −0.38 | −0.35 | 412,521 | 17,560 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| New London, CT | 58.2 | −0.291 | −0.31 | −0.27 | 136,569 | 6,270 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tolland, CT | 55.8 | −0.308 | −0.34 | −0.28 | 78,825 | 3,558 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Windham, CT | 47.8 | −0.344 | −0.38 | −0.30 | 55,842 | 2,010 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Kent, DE | 52.1 | −0.135 | −0.18 | −0.09 | 85,561 | 1,752 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| New Castle, DE | 68.8 | −0.434 | −0.45 | −0.42 | 283,398 | 10,135 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sussex, DE | 44.3 | −0.304 | −0.33 | −0.27 | 127,912 | 4,390 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| District of Columbia, DC | 94.5 | −0.721 | −0.73 | −0.72 | 335,909 | 41,702 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Alachua, FL | 63.8 | −0.423 | −0.44 | −0.40 | 140,676 | 6,112 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baker, FL | 14.6 | +0.526 | +0.38 | +0.67 | 13,948 | 170 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bay, FL | 27.9 | +0.438 | +0.39 | +0.48 | 91,711 | 2,078 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bradford, FL | 23.4 | +0.307 | +0.13 | +0.49 | 13,494 | 142 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Brevard, FL | 41.7 | +0.070 | +0.05 | +0.09 | 356,432 | 8,999 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Broward, FL | 65.0 | −0.270 | −0.28 | −0.26 | 952,161 | 25,659 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Calhoun, FL | 18.6 | +0.478 | +0.26 | +0.70 | 6,483 | 69 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Charlotte, FL | 36.6 | +0.151 | +0.11 | +0.19 | 115,516 | 3,209 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Citrus, FL | 29.3 | +0.124 | +0.07 | +0.18 | 92,444 | 1,865 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clay, FL | 31.2 | +0.221 | +0.17 | +0.27 | 122,797 | 2,128 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Collier, FL | 37.6 | +0.267 | +0.24 | +0.29 | 206,571 | 8,751 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Columbia, FL | 27.2 | +0.343 | +0.25 | +0.43 | 32,750 | 513 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| DeSoto, FL | 33.9 | +0.402 | +0.25 | +0.56 | 12,572 | 185 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dixie, FL | 16.8 | +0.442 | +0.24 | +0.65 | 8,124 | 93 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Duval, FL | 51.9 | +0.069 | +0.05 | +0.09 | 486,318 | 10,369 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Escambia, FL | 42.3 | +0.203 | +0.17 | +0.24 | 167,603 | 3,450 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Flagler, FL | 39.5 | −0.017 | −0.07 | +0.04 | 71,204 | 1,769 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Franklin, FL | 31.2 | −0.284 | −0.42 | −0.14 | 6,795 | 183 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Gadsden, FL | 68.4 | −0.013 | −0.11 | +0.08 | 23,618 | 483 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gilchrist, FL | 17.7 | +0.239 | +0.05 | +0.43 | 9,595 | 119 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Glades, FL | 26.8 | +0.373 | +0.19 | +0.56 | 5,167 | 101 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gulf, FL | 24.5 | +0.463 | +0.29 | +0.64 | 8,098 | 135 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hamilton, FL | 34.0 | +0.446 | +0.20 | +0.70 | 5,778 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hardee, FL | 27.3 | +0.714 | +0.59 | +0.84 | 8,420 | 164 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hendry, FL | 38.4 | +0.509 | +0.41 | +0.60 | 12,835 | 306 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hernando, FL | 34.8 | +0.124 | +0.07 | +0.18 | 107,931 | 1,858 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Highlands, FL | 32.7 | +0.321 | +0.25 | +0.39 | 51,811 | 967 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hillsborough, FL | 53.5 | −0.074 | −0.09 | −0.06 | 703,765 | 18,101 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Holmes, FL | 10.3 | +0.746 | +0.50 | +0.99 | 9,004 | 58 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Indian River, FL | 39.1 | +0.246 | +0.21 | +0.28 | 96,716 | 3,511 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, FL | 30.4 | +0.352 | +0.24 | +0.46 | 22,254 | 322 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, FL | 46.5 | +0.070 | −0.06 | +0.20 | 8,376 | 227 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lafayette, FL | 14.0 | +0.374 | +0.14 | +0.61 | 3,638 | 56 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lake, FL | 39.9 | +0.099 | +0.06 | +0.13 | 209,364 | 4,216 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, FL | 40.3 | +0.109 | +0.09 | +0.13 | 390,942 | 10,970 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Leon, FL | 64.3 | −0.193 | −0.21 | −0.18 | 160,970 | 8,772 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Levy, FL | 27.0 | +0.152 | +0.04 | +0.26 | 22,954 | 370 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Liberty, FL | 19.6 | +0.541 | +0.27 | +0.81 | 3,540 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Madison, FL | 40.2 | +0.170 | −0.01 | +0.35 | 9,323 | 114 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Manatee, FL | 41.9 | −0.049 | −0.08 | −0.02 | 215,153 | 6,414 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Marion, FL | 36.9 | +0.143 | +0.11 | +0.18 | 202,684 | 4,176 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Martin, FL | 37.6 | +0.185 | +0.15 | +0.22 | 98,061 | 3,874 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Miami-Dade, FL | 53.7 | −0.211 | −0.22 | −0.20 | 1,150,697 | 32,297 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, FL | 46.0 | −0.146 | −0.19 | −0.10 | 47,574 | 2,331 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Nassau, FL | 26.8 | +0.165 | +0.11 | +0.22 | 58,130 | 1,562 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Okaloosa, FL | 30.0 | +0.471 | +0.43 | +0.52 | 114,046 | 2,325 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Okeechobee, FL | 27.7 | +0.428 | +0.29 | +0.56 | 15,860 | 213 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Orange, FL | 61.7 | −0.112 | −0.13 | −0.10 | 640,412 | 15,210 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Osceola, FL | 57.0 | −0.081 | −0.13 | −0.03 | 170,777 | 1,721 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Palm Beach, FL | 56.4 | −0.138 | −0.15 | −0.13 | 768,283 | 30,149 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pasco, FL | 39.9 | +0.041 | +0.01 | +0.07 | 298,694 | 4,933 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pinellas, FL | 50.1 | −0.165 | −0.18 | −0.15 | 553,659 | 17,100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Polk, FL | 42.7 | +0.222 | +0.19 | +0.25 | 339,635 | 5,874 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Putnam, FL | 29.2 | +0.128 | +0.04 | +0.21 | 36,041 | 655 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Johns, FL | 36.5 | +0.118 | +0.09 | +0.15 | 174,796 | 4,993 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| St. Lucie, FL | 49.2 | −0.028 | −0.07 | +0.01 | 170,968 | 3,325 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Santa Rosa, FL | 26.3 | +0.347 | +0.29 | +0.40 | 104,997 | 1,659 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sarasota, FL | 44.7 | −0.192 | −0.21 | −0.17 | 268,480 | 12,109 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Seminole, FL | 51.4 | −0.005 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 257,769 | 5,947 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sumter, FL | 31.9 | +0.149 | +0.10 | +0.19 | 92,102 | 2,913 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Suwannee, FL | 21.5 | +0.319 | +0.20 | +0.44 | 20,895 | 308 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Taylor, FL | 22.9 | +0.363 | +0.20 | +0.53 | 10,050 | 151 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Union, FL | 17.0 | +0.485 | +0.23 | +0.74 | 6,186 | 51 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Volusia, FL | 42.9 | +0.030 | +0.01 | +0.05 | 304,396 | 7,428 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wakulla, FL | 29.4 | −0.147 | −0.27 | −0.03 | 18,225 | 269 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Walton, FL | 23.9 | +0.292 | +0.22 | +0.36 | 43,285 | 993 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, FL | 19.2 | +0.529 | +0.39 | +0.67 | 12,223 | 173 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Appling, GA | 21.4 | +1.015 | +0.81 | +1.22 | 8,354 | 60 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Atkinson, GA | 26.4 | +0.801 | +0.42 | +1.18 | 3,125 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bacon, GA | 13.5 | +0.679 | +0.40 | +0.96 | 4,642 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Baldwin, GA | 50.7 | +0.295 | +0.17 | +0.42 | 18,043 | 304 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Banks, GA | 10.7 | +0.418 | +0.04 | +0.80 | 8,727 | 47 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Barrow, GA | 28.1 | +0.447 | +0.31 | +0.58 | 37,257 | 316 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bartow, GA | 24.3 | +0.503 | +0.40 | +0.60 | 49,763 | 515 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ben Hill, GA | 36.8 | +0.468 | +0.21 | +0.72 | 6,504 | 69 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Berrien, GA | 16.5 | +0.901 | +0.68 | +1.12 | 7,688 | 66 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bibb, GA | 62.0 | +0.229 | +0.18 | +0.28 | 69,967 | 1,508 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Bleckley, GA | 23.3 | +0.430 | +0.09 | +0.77 | 5,641 | 42 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Brantley, GA | 9.1 | +0.250 | −0.10 | +0.60 | 7,693 | 39 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Brooks, GA | 39.6 | +0.718 | +0.48 | +0.96 | 7,052 | 75 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bryan, GA | 32.1 | +0.295 | +0.15 | +0.44 | 20,978 | 268 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bulloch, GA | 38.0 | +0.347 | +0.25 | +0.44 | 29,635 | 482 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Burke, GA | 49.1 | +0.818 | +0.58 | +1.05 | 10,608 | 69 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Butts, GA | 28.0 | +0.868 | +0.68 | +1.06 | 11,680 | 104 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Camden, GA | 34.3 | +0.303 | +0.18 | +0.43 | 23,216 | 330 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Candler, GA | 28.8 | +0.353 | +0.12 | +0.59 | 4,402 | 91 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Carroll, GA | 30.2 | +0.397 | +0.31 | +0.48 | 53,712 | 696 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Catoosa, GA | 21.6 | +0.313 | +0.17 | +0.46 | 32,099 | 264 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Charlton, GA | 24.4 | +0.423 | +0.14 | +0.71 | 4,524 | 55 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chatham, GA | 59.5 | −0.017 | −0.05 | +0.02 | 131,479 | 3,489 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Chattooga, GA | 18.7 | +0.322 | +0.03 | +0.61 | 9,918 | 59 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cherokee, GA | 30.0 | +0.207 | +0.16 | +0.26 | 142,364 | 2,404 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clarke, GA | 71.4 | −0.431 | −0.47 | −0.39 | 50,505 | 2,075 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clayton, GA | 85.8 | −0.408 | −0.47 | −0.35 | 111,277 | 1,006 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Clinch, GA | 26.1 | +0.783 | +0.53 | +1.04 | 2,849 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cobb, GA | 57.3 | −0.002 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 387,283 | 9,997 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coffee, GA | 29.9 | +0.705 | +0.57 | +0.84 | 15,089 | 182 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Colquitt, GA | 26.2 | +0.942 | +0.85 | +1.04 | 15,967 | 240 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Columbia, GA | 36.9 | +0.332 | +0.26 | +0.40 | 79,245 | 1,093 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Cook, GA | 29.6 | +0.836 | +0.61 | +1.06 | 6,959 | 59 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Coweta, GA | 32.0 | +0.272 | +0.19 | +0.35 | 75,711 | 1,010 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crawford, GA | 26.7 | +0.840 | +0.56 | +1.12 | 6,043 | 42 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Crisp, GA | 37.4 | +0.759 | +0.60 | +0.92 | 7,967 | 118 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dade, GA | 17.2 | +0.486 | +0.23 | +0.74 | 7,327 | 86 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dawson, GA | 15.7 | +0.544 | +0.36 | +0.72 | 15,884 | 162 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Decatur, GA | 41.4 | +0.636 | +0.47 | +0.80 | 11,537 | 124 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| DeKalb, GA | 84.1 | −0.672 | −0.69 | −0.66 | 366,539 | 12,992 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dodge, GA | 27.1 | +0.681 | +0.48 | +0.88 | 8,015 | 79 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dooly, GA | 47.0 | +0.611 | +0.35 | +0.87 | 4,070 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Dougherty, GA | 70.2 | +0.364 | +0.28 | +0.45 | 35,009 | 504 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Douglas, GA | 62.7 | −0.042 | −0.12 | +0.04 | 68,268 | 835 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Early, GA | 47.5 | +0.634 | +0.32 | +0.95 | 5,160 | 33 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Effingham, GA | 24.8 | +0.411 | +0.25 | +0.57 | 31,079 | 220 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Elbert, GA | 31.6 | +0.369 | +0.16 | +0.58 | 9,105 | 108 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Emanuel, GA | 30.6 | +0.529 | +0.31 | +0.75 | 9,439 | 85 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Evans, GA | 31.4 | +0.712 | +0.45 | +0.98 | 4,212 | 50 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fannin, GA | 17.4 | +0.146 | 0.00 | +0.29 | 14,739 | 288 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fayette, GA | 46.6 | +0.001 | −0.06 | +0.06 | 71,018 | 1,629 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Floyd, GA | 29.2 | +0.419 | +0.33 | +0.50 | 40,823 | 703 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Forsyth, GA | 33.1 | +0.281 | +0.23 | +0.33 | 127,331 | 2,008 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Franklin, GA | 14.9 | +0.628 | +0.39 | +0.86 | 10,662 | 84 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Fulton, GA | 73.5 | −0.264 | −0.28 | −0.25 | 517,459 | 23,387 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gilmer, GA | 17.9 | +0.259 | +0.11 | +0.40 | 16,361 | 278 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Glynn, GA | 38.3 | +0.220 | +0.15 | +0.29 | 41,499 | 1,112 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gordon, GA | 18.4 | +0.631 | +0.49 | +0.77 | 23,789 | 264 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Grady, GA | 34.0 | +0.452 | +0.23 | +0.68 | 10,653 | 90 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Greene, GA | 36.6 | +0.638 | +0.49 | +0.79 | 11,153 | 195 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Gwinnett, GA | 59.3 | −0.099 | −0.13 | −0.07 | 408,394 | 6,263 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Habersham, GA | 17.6 | +0.360 | +0.23 | +0.49 | 20,199 | 296 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hall, GA | 28.1 | +0.481 | +0.42 | +0.54 | 89,216 | 1,599 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hancock, GA | 72.1 | −0.129 | −0.53 | +0.27 | 4,130 | 32 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Haralson, GA | 12.7 | +0.851 | +0.65 | +1.05 | 14,121 | 126 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Harris, GA | 27.6 | +0.407 | +0.27 | +0.55 | 19,776 | 272 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Hart, GA | 25.0 | +0.642 | +0.48 | +0.80 | 12,622 | 167 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Heard, GA | 15.4 | +0.764 | +0.33 | +1.20 | 5,343 | 27 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Henry, GA | 60.3 | −0.158 | −0.22 | −0.10 | 121,702 | 1,450 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Houston, GA | 43.7 | +0.442 | +0.37 | +0.51 | 73,779 | 1,040 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Irwin, GA | 24.3 | +0.964 | +0.75 | +1.18 | 4,142 | 46 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jackson, GA | 20.6 | +0.386 | +0.28 | +0.50 | 37,144 | 460 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jasper, GA | 23.2 | +0.697 | +0.44 | +0.95 | 7,583 | 67 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jeff Davis, GA | 18.0 | +0.571 | +0.17 | +0.97 | 5,723 | 29 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jefferson, GA | 53.4 | +0.538 | +0.23 | +0.84 | 7,595 | 47 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Jenkins, GA | 36.9 | +0.967 | +0.65 | +1.28 | 3,427 | 25 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Jones, GA | 32.9 | +0.316 | +0.12 | +0.51 | 14,822 | 136 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lamar, GA | 29.3 | +0.266 | +0.02 | +0.51 | 8,951 | 96 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lanier, GA | 28.9 | +0.307 | 0.00 | +0.61 | 3,528 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Laurens, GA | 35.8 | +0.670 | +0.55 | +0.79 | 22,567 | 274 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lee, GA | 27.5 | +0.552 | +0.37 | +0.74 | 16,565 | 130 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Liberty, GA | 62.2 | −0.023 | −0.16 | +0.12 | 21,063 | 230 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lincoln, GA | 31.1 | +0.570 | +0.17 | +0.97 | 4,605 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Long, GA | 36.6 | −0.332 | −0.72 | +0.05 | 5,562 | 29 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Lowndes, GA | 43.9 | +0.417 | +0.32 | +0.51 | 45,808 | 565 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Lumpkin, GA | 20.4 | −0.050 | −0.19 | +0.09 | 15,289 | 266 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| McDuffie, GA | 40.3 | +0.679 | +0.47 | +0.88 | 10,337 | 100 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| McIntosh, GA | 39.4 | +0.122 | −0.12 | +0.37 | 6,628 | 90 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Macon, GA | 61.6 | +0.760 | +0.45 | +1.07 | 4,641 | 40 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Madison, GA | 23.1 | +0.092 | −0.13 | +0.31 | 14,737 | 119 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Meriwether, GA | 39.7 | +0.555 | +0.27 | +0.84 | 10,811 | 73 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Mitchell, GA | 44.7 | +0.720 | +0.55 | +0.89 | 8,928 | 99 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Monroe, GA | 28.4 | +0.417 | +0.26 | +0.58 | 15,442 | 176 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Montgomery, GA | 24.9 | +0.893 | +0.66 | +1.13 | 3,940 | 44 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Morgan, GA | 28.9 | +0.372 | +0.21 | +0.53 | 11,584 | 195 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Murray, GA | 15.1 | +0.465 | +0.21 | +0.72 | 15,245 | 82 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Muscogee, GA | 62.2 | +0.156 | +0.10 | +0.21 | 79,553 | 1,535 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Newton, GA | 55.5 | +0.081 | −0.02 | +0.18 | 53,658 | 526 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Oconee, GA | 33.0 | +0.016 | −0.07 | +0.10 | 24,757 | 686 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Oglethorpe, GA | 30.4 | −0.147 | −0.41 | +0.11 | 8,031 | 77 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Paulding, GA | 35.3 | +0.186 | +0.10 | +0.27 | 84,212 | 798 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Peach, GA | 47.7 | +0.333 | +0.16 | +0.50 | 12,428 | 186 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pickens, GA | 16.7 | +0.305 | +0.16 | +0.45 | 16,934 | 285 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pierce, GA | 12.2 | +0.836 | +0.66 | +1.02 | 8,998 | 91 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pike, GA | 14.2 | +0.601 | +0.34 | +0.86 | 10,632 | 85 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Polk, GA | 21.2 | +0.611 | +0.42 | +0.80 | 17,244 | 136 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Pulaski, GA | 30.4 | +0.739 | +0.49 | +0.99 | 4,045 | 53 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Putnam, GA | 29.4 | +0.608 | +0.46 | +0.75 | 11,739 | 223 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Rabun, GA | 21.0 | +0.041 | −0.12 | +0.20 | 9,458 | 200 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Richmond, GA | 68.8 | +0.211 | +0.15 | +0.27 | 85,899 | 1,340 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Rockdale, GA | 70.6 | −0.295 | −0.40 | −0.19 | 44,251 | 477 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Screven, GA | 40.5 | +0.750 | +0.51 | +0.99 | 6,576 | 64 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Seminole, GA | 32.5 | +0.540 | +0.19 | +0.89 | 3,869 | 34 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Spalding, GA | 39.5 | +0.345 | +0.21 | +0.48 | 29,932 | 331 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Stephens, GA | 20.3 | +0.716 | +0.53 | +0.90 | 11,753 | 115 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Sumter, GA | 52.4 | +0.295 | +0.14 | +0.45 | 12,047 | 183 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Talbot, GA | 60.3 | +0.082 | −0.33 | +0.49 | 3,506 | 31 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Tattnall, GA | 25.4 | +0.881 | +0.71 | +1.05 | 8,116 | 82 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Taylor, GA | 36.4 | +0.567 | +0.26 | +0.87 | 3,808 | 29 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Telfair, GA | 34.5 | +0.674 | +0.32 | +1.02 | 4,313 | 29 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Terrell, GA | 54.2 | +0.656 | +0.37 | +0.94 | 4,380 | 42 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Thomas, GA | 40.2 | +0.598 | +0.50 | +0.70 | 21,677 | 402 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Tift, GA | 33.0 | +0.834 | +0.74 | +0.92 | 16,102 | 319 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Toombs, GA | 27.2 | +0.758 | +0.63 | +0.88 | 10,811 | 186 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Towns, GA | 19.5 | +0.241 | +0.07 | +0.42 | 7,934 | 183 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Troup, GA | 39.0 | +0.537 | +0.42 | +0.66 | 29,719 | 324 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Turner, GA | 37.5 | +0.496 | +0.17 | +0.82 | 3,758 | 39 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Twiggs, GA | 46.3 | +0.551 | +0.21 | +0.90 | 4,414 | 26 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Union, GA | 18.1 | +0.120 | −0.02 | +0.26 | 15,450 | 271 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Upson, GA | 32.8 | +0.586 | +0.37 | +0.80 | 12,809 | 102 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Walker, GA | 19.9 | +0.435 | +0.29 | +0.58 | 28,943 | 265 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Walton, GA | 25.1 | +0.524 | +0.41 | +0.63 | 50,522 | 481 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ware, GA | 29.6 | +0.631 | +0.51 | +0.75 | 14,072 | 231 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Washington, GA | 50.4 | +0.677 | +0.49 | +0.86 | 9,411 | 117 | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors |
| Wayne, GA | 21.2 | +0.674 | +0.50 | +0.85 | 12,675 | 127 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| White, GA | 16.5 | +0.145 | −0.01 | +0.30 | 14,633 | 232 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Whitfield, GA | 29.4 | +0.494 | +0.40 | +0.59 | 36,324 | 474 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilcox, GA | 26.4 | +0.962 | +0.64 | +1.28 | 3,263 | 25 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilkes, GA | 43.3 | +0.409 | +0.18 | +0.64 | 4,983 | 94 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Wilkinson, GA | 43.8 | +0.297 | −0.06 | +0.65 | 4,739 | 37 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Worth, GA | 26.0 | +0.880 | +0.70 | +1.06 | 9,225 | 99 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Ada, ID | 48.0 | −0.214 | −0.24 | −0.19 | 251,238 | 7,720 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Adams, ID | 23.3 | +0.221 | −0.10 | +0.55 | 2,532 | 56 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bannock, ID | 38.6 | −0.238 | −0.32 | −0.16 | 38,013 | 720 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Bear Lake, ID | 10.7 | +0.746 | +0.39 | +1.10 | 3,264 | 36 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Benewah, ID | 20.1 | +0.209 | −0.06 | +0.47 | 4,855 | 80 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bingham, ID | 21.2 | +0.483 | +0.32 | +0.65 | 19,419 | 187 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Blaine, ID | 68.9 | −0.475 | −0.53 | −0.42 | 12,950 | 1,017 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boise, ID | 25.7 | +0.125 | −0.10 | +0.35 | 4,689 | 110 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Bonner, ID | 31.1 | −0.076 | −0.16 | +0.01 | 26,679 | 758 | Republican vote, left-leaning donors |
| Bonneville, ID | 27.4 | +0.152 | +0.08 | +0.22 | 52,059 | 955 | Vote and donors lean the same way |
| Boundary, ID | 19.8 | +0.304 | +0.10 | +0.51 | 6,157 | 134 | Vote and donors lean the same way |

The first 500 of 2839 rows; every row is in https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/donor_vs_vote.json.

Note: Votes are full counts. The data table gives each county's 95% interval for its donor lean, which treats its reliable donors as independent draws; the tooltip gives n, the number of reliable donors, and a county with a small pool has a noisy donor lean. The intervals on the binned means are 95% intervals across the counties in each bin.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted, and county values, binned means and the fitted line count each county once

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/donor_vs_vote.json

### Table 3. Right-leaning donors are more common in Democratic-voting counties that are at least 30% Black: 58.7% of them, against 6.5% of the rest

Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by non-Hispanic Black share of residents, for Democratic-voting and Republican-voting counties, 2020 vote

| Black share of residents | Vote | Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way) | Divergent counties | Counties |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Under 5% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 6.9 | 14 | 202 |
| 5 to 15% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 2.8 | 3 | 108 |
| 15 to 30% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 11.3 | 7 | 62 |
| 30 to 50% Black | Democratic-voting counties | 43.9 | 25 | 57 |
| 50% or more Black | Democratic-voting counties | 71.0 | 49 | 69 |
| Under 5% Black | Republican-voting counties | 23.4 | 372 | 1,593 |
| 5 to 15% Black | Republican-voting counties | 20.6 | 81 | 393 |
| 15 to 30% Black | Republican-voting counties | 5.6 | 12 | 214 |
| 30 to 50% Black | Republican-voting counties | 3.8 | 5 | 131 |

Note: The counties of Connecticut, which have no Black share in the demographic file, are left out.

Note: Each bar is the share of the counties in the analysis in that band, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/who_diverges.json

### Table 4. At every pool floor, a larger share of Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black than of the rest have right-leaning donors

Share of Democratic-voting counties whose donor pool leans right, by whether the county is at least 30% Black, among counties with at least the stated number of reliable donors, 2020 vote

| Counties with at least | Group | Counties with right-leaning donors (%) | Counties with right-leaning donors | Counties |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 25 or more donors | Counties at least 30% Black | 58.7 | 74 | 126 |
| 25 or more donors | Other Democratic-voting counties | 6.5 | 24 | 372 |
| 100 or more donors | Counties at least 30% Black | 43.9 | 36 | 82 |
| 100 or more donors | Other Democratic-voting counties | 4.8 | 17 | 357 |
| 500 or more donors | Counties at least 30% Black | 30.2 | 13 | 43 |
| 500 or more donors | Other Democratic-voting counties | 4.1 | 13 | 320 |

Note: The counties of Connecticut, which have no Black share in the demographic file, are left out.

Note: Each bar is the share of the counties with at least that many reliable donors, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/black_pool_floor.json

### Table 5. Among Democratic-voting counties, donor lean rises with Black share, and less steeply when counties are weighted by votes

Mean CFscore of reliable donors against non-Hispanic Black share of residents, Democratic-voting counties (n = 498), 2020 vote and demographics

| County | Black share (%) | Donor lean (mean CFscore) | Donor lean, 95% interval, low | Donor lean, 95% interval, high | Two-party votes | Reliable donors | Group |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Bullock, AL | 69.0 | +0.369 | +0.04 | +0.69 | 4,592 | 40 | Donors lean right |
| Dallas, AL | 70.6 | +0.209 | +0.03 | +0.39 | 17,754 | 138 | Donors lean right |
| Greene, AL | 80.1 | +0.066 | −0.29 | +0.42 | 4,759 | 29 | Donors lean right |
| Hale, AL | 56.9 | +0.792 | +0.49 | +1.09 | 7,877 | 35 | Donors lean right |
| Jefferson, AL | 42.5 | +0.060 | +0.03 | +0.09 | 320,531 | 6,805 | Donors lean right |
| Lowndes, AL | 74.2 | +0.581 | +0.22 | +0.94 | 6,808 | 32 | Donors lean right |
| Macon, AL | 79.7 | −0.281 | −0.49 | −0.07 | 8,649 | 90 | Donors lean left |
| Marengo, AL | 51.3 | +0.433 | +0.17 | +0.70 | 10,831 | 64 | Donors lean right |
| Montgomery, AL | 58.3 | +0.312 | +0.27 | +0.35 | 97,840 | 2,364 | Donors lean right |
| Russell, AL | 44.7 | −0.042 | −0.23 | +0.14 | 21,092 | 143 | Donors lean left |
| Sumter, AL | 69.7 | +0.470 | +0.19 | +0.75 | 6,246 | 56 | Donors lean right |
| Wilcox, AL | 70.2 | +0.643 | +0.34 | +0.95 | 5,881 | 36 | Donors lean right |
| Apache, AZ | 0.9 | +0.003 | −0.15 | +0.16 | 34,735 | 245 | Donors lean right |
| Coconino, AZ | 1.3 | −0.528 | −0.56 | −0.49 | 71,750 | 2,490 | Donors lean left |
| Maricopa, AZ | 5.4 | −0.112 | −0.12 | −0.10 | 2,036,439 | 60,280 | Donors lean left |
| Pima, AZ | 3.3 | −0.427 | −0.44 | −0.41 | 512,739 | 23,180 | Donors lean left |
| Santa Cruz, AZ | 0.2 | −0.435 | −0.52 | −0.35 | 19,332 | 550 | Donors lean left |
| Chicot, AR | 53.5 | +0.532 | +0.31 | +0.75 | 4,012 | 55 | Donors lean right |
| Crittenden, AR | 49.6 | +0.298 | +0.15 | +0.44 | 15,847 | 204 | Donors lean right |
| Desha, AR | 48.2 | +0.270 | +0.08 | +0.46 | 3,937 | 61 | Donors lean right |
| Jefferson, AR | 56.0 | +0.163 | +0.07 | +0.25 | 24,502 | 388 | Donors lean right |
| Lee, AR | 55.0 | +0.409 | +0.20 | +0.62 | 2,709 | 41 | Donors lean right |
| Phillips, AR | 61.8 | −0.002 | −0.17 | +0.16 | 6,040 | 101 | Donors lean left |
| Pulaski, AR | 36.8 | −0.163 | −0.19 | −0.14 | 165,634 | 6,188 | Donors lean left |
| St. Francis, AR | 53.6 | +0.051 | −0.12 | +0.23 | 6,846 | 101 | Donors lean right |
| Alameda, CA | 9.7 | −0.840 | −0.85 | −0.83 | 753,968 | 39,788 | Donors lean left |
| Alpine, CA | 0.4 | −0.565 | −0.86 | −0.27 | 720 | 37 | Donors lean left |
| Butte, CA | 1.7 | −0.425 | −0.46 | −0.39 | 99,156 | 3,195 | Donors lean left |
| Contra Costa, CA | 8.1 | −0.706 | −0.71 | −0.70 | 569,263 | 32,404 | Donors lean left |
| Fresno, CA | 4.3 | −0.054 | −0.08 | −0.03 | 357,489 | 6,335 | Donors lean left |
| Humboldt, CA | 1.1 | −0.733 | −0.76 | −0.70 | 66,538 | 2,877 | Donors lean left |
| Imperial, CA | 2.2 | +0.191 | +0.10 | +0.28 | 55,525 | 619 | Donors lean right |
| Inyo, CA | 0.5 | −0.354 | −0.46 | −0.24 | 9,254 | 367 | Donors lean left |
| Lake, CA | 2.2 | −0.516 | −0.58 | −0.45 | 28,064 | 886 | Donors lean left |
| Los Angeles, CA | 7.6 | −0.592 | −0.60 | −0.59 | 4,174,415 | 163,108 | Donors lean left |
| Marin, CA | 2.1 | −0.808 | −0.82 | −0.80 | 152,900 | 17,069 | Donors lean left |
| Mendocino, CA | 0.5 | −0.787 | −0.82 | −0.76 | 42,049 | 2,280 | Donors lean left |
| Merced, CA | 2.7 | +0.056 | 0.00 | +0.12 | 88,388 | 1,336 | Donors lean right |
| Mono, CA | 0.1 | −0.672 | −0.78 | −0.57 | 6,526 | 246 | Donors lean left |
| Monterey, CA | 2.2 | −0.507 | −0.53 | −0.48 | 160,252 | 6,087 | Donors lean left |
| Napa, CA | 1.8 | −0.604 | −0.63 | −0.58 | 70,493 | 3,603 | Donors lean left |
| Nevada, CA | 0.3 | −0.640 | −0.67 | −0.61 | 63,138 | 3,193 | Donors lean left |
| Orange, CA | 1.5 | −0.158 | −0.17 | −0.15 | 1,490,507 | 45,983 | Donors lean left |
| Riverside, CA | 6.1 | −0.289 | −0.30 | −0.27 | 976,647 | 21,059 | Donors lean left |
| Sacramento, CA | 9.1 | −0.518 | −0.53 | −0.51 | 700,213 | 21,776 | Donors lean left |
| San Benito, CA | 0.8 | −0.327 | −0.42 | −0.24 | 28,218 | 570 | Donors lean left |
| San Bernardino, CA | 7.6 | −0.093 | −0.11 | −0.07 | 822,116 | 12,800 | Donors lean left |
| San Diego, CA | 4.5 | −0.356 | −0.36 | −0.35 | 1,564,744 | 54,884 | Donors lean left |
| San Francisco, CA | 4.8 | −0.866 | −0.87 | −0.86 | 434,573 | 45,868 | Donors lean left |
| San Joaquin, CA | 6.7 | −0.110 | −0.14 | −0.08 | 282,235 | 4,837 | Donors lean left |
| San Luis Obispo, CA | 1.3 | −0.497 | −0.52 | −0.47 | 155,746 | 7,100 | Donors lean left |
| San Mateo, CA | 2.1 | −0.680 | −0.69 | −0.67 | 366,973 | 24,189 | Donors lean left |
| Santa Barbara, CA | 1.6 | −0.523 | −0.54 | −0.50 | 195,699 | 9,410 | Donors lean left |
| Santa Clara, CA | 2.3 | −0.659 | −0.67 | −0.65 | 832,579 | 39,175 | Donors lean left |
| Santa Cruz, CA | 0.8 | −0.829 | −0.84 | −0.82 | 141,183 | 9,842 | Donors lean left |
| Solano, CA | 12.8 | −0.543 | −0.57 | −0.52 | 200,945 | 5,487 | Donors lean left |
| Sonoma, CA | 1.5 | −0.802 | −0.81 | −0.79 | 261,763 | 16,125 | Donors lean left |
| Stanislaus, CA | 2.7 | −0.094 | −0.13 | −0.06 | 209,986 | 3,633 | Donors lean left |
| Ventura, CA | 1.7 | −0.369 | −0.39 | −0.35 | 413,595 | 13,838 | Donors lean left |
| Yolo, CA | 2.4 | −0.707 | −0.73 | −0.69 | 94,890 | 5,165 | Donors lean left |
| Adams, CO | 3.3 | −0.280 | −0.31 | −0.25 | 229,859 | 4,579 | Donors lean left |
| Arapahoe, CO | 10.6 | −0.143 | −0.16 | −0.12 | 340,930 | 12,669 | Donors lean left |
| Boulder, CO | 0.8 | −0.722 | −0.73 | −0.71 | 201,590 | 16,281 | Donors lean left |
| Broomfield, CO | 1.2 | −0.389 | −0.44 | −0.33 | 45,372 | 1,328 | Donors lean left |
| Chaffee, CO | 1.6 | −0.429 | −0.51 | −0.35 | 13,382 | 588 | Donors lean left |
| Clear Creek, CO | 0.4 | −0.287 | −0.41 | −0.16 | 6,358 | 280 | Donors lean left |
| Costilla, CO | 1.1 | −0.388 | −0.65 | −0.13 | 2,052 | 54 | Donors lean left |
| Denver, CO | 8.7 | −0.617 | −0.63 | −0.61 | 384,911 | 23,946 | Donors lean left |
| Eagle, CO | 0.8 | −0.381 | −0.43 | −0.33 | 28,480 | 1,278 | Donors lean left |
| Garfield, CO | 0.6 | −0.297 | −0.35 | −0.24 | 30,144 | 1,288 | Donors lean left |
| Gilpin, CO | 1.6 | −0.415 | −0.57 | −0.26 | 4,056 | 162 | Donors lean left |
| Gunnison, CO | 0.3 | −0.516 | −0.60 | −0.43 | 10,867 | 450 | Donors lean left |
| Jefferson, CO | 1.1 | −0.256 | −0.27 | −0.24 | 366,813 | 15,446 | Donors lean left |
| Lake, CO | 0.1 | −0.395 | −0.60 | −0.19 | 3,800 | 96 | Donors lean left |
| La Plata, CO | 0.4 | −0.451 | −0.49 | −0.41 | 34,781 | 1,929 | Donors lean left |
| Larimer, CO | 1.0 | −0.393 | −0.41 | −0.37 | 217,609 | 8,555 | Donors lean left |
| Ouray, CO | 0.9 | −0.439 | −0.56 | −0.32 | 3,942 | 279 | Donors lean left |
| Pitkin, CO | 0.4 | −0.479 | −0.53 | −0.43 | 11,769 | 1,134 | Donors lean left |
| Pueblo, CO | 1.7 | −0.090 | −0.13 | −0.04 | 86,024 | 2,174 | Donors lean left |
| Routt, CO | 0.6 | −0.390 | −0.46 | −0.32 | 16,507 | 824 | Donors lean left |
| Saguache, CO | 0.5 | −0.539 | −0.68 | −0.39 | 3,297 | 161 | Donors lean left |
| San Miguel, CO | 0.5 | −0.701 | −0.77 | −0.63 | 5,060 | 380 | Donors lean left |
| Summit, CO | 0.3 | −0.455 | −0.52 | −0.39 | 17,953 | 818 | Donors lean left |
| Kent, DE | 25.7 | −0.135 | −0.18 | −0.09 | 85,561 | 1,752 | Donors lean left |
| New Castle, DE | 24.8 | −0.434 | −0.45 | −0.42 | 283,398 | 10,135 | Donors lean left |
| District of Columbia, DC | 43.1 | −0.721 | −0.73 | −0.72 | 335,909 | 41,702 | Donors lean left |
| Alachua, FL | 19.4 | −0.423 | −0.44 | −0.40 | 140,676 | 6,112 | Donors lean left |
| Broward, FL | 27.5 | −0.270 | −0.28 | −0.26 | 952,161 | 25,659 | Donors lean left |
| Duval, FL | 28.7 | +0.069 | +0.05 | +0.09 | 486,318 | 10,369 | Donors lean right |
| Gadsden, FL | 53.8 | −0.013 | −0.11 | +0.08 | 23,618 | 483 | Donors lean left |
| Hillsborough, FL | 15.4 | −0.074 | −0.09 | −0.06 | 703,765 | 18,101 | Donors lean left |
| Leon, FL | 30.5 | −0.193 | −0.21 | −0.18 | 160,970 | 8,772 | Donors lean left |
| Miami-Dade, FL | 14.8 | −0.211 | −0.22 | −0.20 | 1,150,697 | 32,297 | Donors lean left |
| Orange, FL | 19.4 | −0.112 | −0.13 | −0.10 | 640,412 | 15,210 | Donors lean left |
| Osceola, FL | 9.4 | −0.081 | −0.13 | −0.03 | 170,777 | 1,721 | Donors lean left |
| Palm Beach, FL | 18.1 | −0.138 | −0.15 | −0.13 | 768,283 | 30,149 | Donors lean left |
| Pinellas, FL | 9.7 | −0.165 | −0.18 | −0.15 | 553,659 | 17,100 | Donors lean left |
| Seminole, FL | 11.1 | −0.005 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 257,769 | 5,947 | Donors lean left |
| Baldwin, GA | 41.6 | +0.295 | +0.17 | +0.42 | 18,043 | 304 | Donors lean right |
| Bibb, GA | 54.4 | +0.229 | +0.18 | +0.28 | 69,967 | 1,508 | Donors lean right |
| Chatham, GA | 39.0 | −0.017 | −0.05 | +0.02 | 131,479 | 3,489 | Donors lean left |
| Clarke, GA | 26.8 | −0.431 | −0.47 | −0.39 | 50,505 | 2,075 | Donors lean left |
| Clayton, GA | 68.7 | −0.408 | −0.47 | −0.35 | 111,277 | 1,006 | Donors lean left |
| Cobb, GA | 26.6 | −0.002 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 387,283 | 9,997 | Donors lean left |
| DeKalb, GA | 51.6 | −0.672 | −0.69 | −0.66 | 366,539 | 12,992 | Donors lean left |
| Dougherty, GA | 69.8 | +0.364 | +0.28 | +0.45 | 35,009 | 504 | Donors lean right |
| Douglas, GA | 48.0 | −0.042 | −0.12 | +0.04 | 68,268 | 835 | Donors lean left |
| Fulton, GA | 42.6 | −0.264 | −0.28 | −0.25 | 517,459 | 23,387 | Donors lean left |
| Gwinnett, GA | 27.5 | −0.099 | −0.13 | −0.07 | 408,394 | 6,263 | Donors lean left |
| Hancock, GA | 70.9 | −0.129 | −0.53 | +0.27 | 4,130 | 32 | Donors lean left |
| Henry, GA | 48.1 | −0.158 | −0.22 | −0.10 | 121,702 | 1,450 | Donors lean left |
| Jefferson, GA | 52.8 | +0.538 | +0.23 | +0.84 | 7,595 | 47 | Donors lean right |
| Liberty, GA | 40.4 | −0.023 | −0.16 | +0.12 | 21,063 | 230 | Donors lean left |
| Macon, GA | 60.2 | +0.760 | +0.45 | +1.07 | 4,641 | 40 | Donors lean right |
| Muscogee, GA | 45.9 | +0.156 | +0.10 | +0.21 | 79,553 | 1,535 | Donors lean right |
| Newton, GA | 46.3 | +0.081 | −0.02 | +0.18 | 53,658 | 526 | Donors lean right |
| Richmond, GA | 55.7 | +0.211 | +0.15 | +0.27 | 85,899 | 1,340 | Donors lean right |
| Rockdale, GA | 56.2 | −0.295 | −0.40 | −0.19 | 44,251 | 477 | Donors lean left |
| Sumter, GA | 51.3 | +0.295 | +0.14 | +0.45 | 12,047 | 183 | Donors lean right |
| Talbot, GA | 55.2 | +0.082 | −0.33 | +0.49 | 3,506 | 31 | Donors lean right |
| Terrell, GA | 58.9 | +0.656 | +0.37 | +0.94 | 4,380 | 42 | Donors lean right |
| Washington, GA | 53.0 | +0.677 | +0.49 | +0.86 | 9,411 | 117 | Donors lean right |
| Blaine, ID | 0.5 | −0.475 | −0.53 | −0.42 | 12,950 | 1,017 | Donors lean left |
| Latah, ID | 1.1 | −0.521 | −0.59 | −0.46 | 19,708 | 763 | Donors lean left |
| Teton, ID | 0.0 | −0.606 | −0.73 | −0.48 | 6,176 | 204 | Donors lean left |
| Champaign, IL | 13.4 | −0.559 | −0.59 | −0.53 | 92,352 | 2,846 | Donors lean left |
| Cook, IL | 22.4 | −0.645 | −0.65 | −0.64 | 2,284,242 | 79,175 | Donors lean left |
| DeKalb, IL | 7.0 | −0.418 | −0.48 | −0.36 | 46,548 | 977 | Donors lean left |
| DuPage, IL | 4.8 | −0.268 | −0.28 | −0.25 | 474,833 | 13,593 | Donors lean left |
| Jackson, IL | 14.4 | −0.471 | −0.54 | −0.40 | 22,071 | 711 | Donors lean left |
| Kane, IL | 5.0 | −0.299 | −0.33 | −0.27 | 226,941 | 4,842 | Donors lean left |
| Kendall, IL | 7.5 | −0.211 | −0.29 | −0.13 | 62,660 | 778 | Donors lean left |
| Lake, IL | 6.4 | −0.351 | −0.37 | −0.33 | 327,626 | 11,440 | Donors lean left |
| McLean, IL | 8.3 | −0.147 | −0.20 | −0.10 | 84,435 | 1,893 | Donors lean left |
| Peoria, IL | 17.5 | +0.153 | +0.11 | +0.20 | 81,830 | 1,863 | Donors lean right |
| Rock Island, IL | 10.4 | −0.176 | −0.24 | −0.12 | 65,294 | 1,254 | Donors lean left |
| St. Clair, IL | 28.7 | −0.237 | −0.28 | −0.19 | 125,475 | 1,899 | Donors lean left |
| Will, IL | 11.3 | −0.254 | −0.28 | −0.22 | 339,031 | 4,794 | Donors lean left |
| Winnebago, IL | 12.2 | −0.093 | −0.14 | −0.05 | 124,917 | 2,120 | Donors lean left |
| Lake, IN | 23.1 | −0.180 | −0.22 | −0.14 | 216,630 | 3,215 | Donors lean left |
| Marion, IN | 27.5 | −0.087 | −0.10 | −0.07 | 381,947 | 12,551 | Donors lean left |
| Monroe, IN | 3.4 | −0.632 | −0.66 | −0.60 | 61,932 | 2,880 | Donors lean left |
| St. Joseph, IN | 12.4 | −0.263 | −0.30 | −0.23 | 113,060 | 2,944 | Donors lean left |
| Tippecanoe, IN | 5.8 | −0.210 | −0.26 | −0.16 | 69,598 | 1,822 | Donors lean left |
| Black Hawk, IA | 9.3 | −0.093 | −0.14 | −0.05 | 65,287 | 2,260 | Donors lean left |
| Johnson, IA | 7.6 | −0.642 | −0.66 | −0.62 | 82,102 | 4,678 | Donors lean left |
| Linn, IA | 5.7 | −0.149 | −0.18 | −0.12 | 124,238 | 4,110 | Donors lean left |
| Polk, IA | 7.0 | −0.254 | −0.27 | −0.24 | 253,050 | 10,474 | Donors lean left |
| Scott, IA | 7.2 | +0.055 | +0.02 | +0.09 | 90,609 | 2,850 | Donors lean right |
| Story, IA | 2.4 | −0.307 | −0.35 | −0.27 | 49,515 | 2,394 | Donors lean left |
| Douglas, KS | 4.1 | −0.652 | −0.68 | −0.62 | 56,173 | 2,444 | Donors lean left |
| Johnson, KS | 4.7 | −0.217 | −0.24 | −0.20 | 339,890 | 10,750 | Donors lean left |
| Riley, KS | 6.3 | −0.220 | −0.29 | −0.15 | 23,114 | 776 | Donors lean left |
| Shawnee, KS | 7.3 | −0.087 | −0.13 | −0.05 | 83,458 | 2,469 | Donors lean left |
| Wyandotte, KS | 19.5 | −0.372 | −0.44 | −0.30 | 54,078 | 762 | Donors lean left |
| Fayette, KY | 14.4 | −0.183 | −0.20 | −0.16 | 149,460 | 6,292 | Donors lean left |
| Jefferson, KY | 21.1 | −0.209 | −0.22 | −0.19 | 379,004 | 12,408 | Donors lean left |
| Caddo Parish, LA | 48.9 | +0.435 | +0.39 | +0.48 | 103,131 | 2,088 | Donors lean right |
| East Baton Rouge Parish, LA | 44.6 | +0.237 | +0.21 | +0.27 | 203,997 | 4,356 | Donors lean right |
| East Carroll Parish, LA | 66.4 | +0.918 | +0.73 | +1.11 | 2,980 | 39 | Donors lean right |
| Iberville Parish, LA | 45.8 | +0.460 | +0.32 | +0.60 | 16,407 | 170 | Donors lean right |
| Madison Parish, LA | 62.8 | +0.590 | +0.27 | +0.91 | 4,584 | 30 | Donors lean right |
| Orleans Parish, LA | 56.2 | −0.412 | −0.44 | −0.39 | 174,518 | 4,054 | Donors lean left |
| St. James Parish, LA | 48.4 | +0.386 | +0.15 | +0.62 | 12,464 | 65 | Donors lean right |
| St. John the Baptist Parish, LA | 56.8 | +0.029 | −0.15 | +0.21 | 21,120 | 141 | Donors lean right |
| Cumberland, ME | 3.2 | −0.636 | −0.65 | −0.62 | 188,343 | 9,080 | Donors lean left |
| Hancock, ME | 0.9 | −0.672 | −0.71 | −0.63 | 34,351 | 1,687 | Donors lean left |
| Kennebec, ME | 0.8 | −0.458 | −0.50 | −0.42 | 69,623 | 1,846 | Donors lean left |
| Knox, ME | 0.4 | −0.683 | −0.72 | −0.64 | 25,092 | 1,324 | Donors lean left |
| Lincoln, ME | 0.6 | −0.569 | −0.62 | −0.52 | 22,940 | 1,061 | Donors lean left |
| Sagadahoc, ME | 0.6 | −0.610 | −0.66 | −0.56 | 23,283 | 942 | Donors lean left |
| Waldo, ME | 0.4 | −0.725 | −0.78 | −0.68 | 23,541 | 827 | Donors lean left |
| York, ME | 1.0 | −0.520 | −0.55 | −0.49 | 126,006 | 3,277 | Donors lean left |
| Anne Arundel, MD | 17.0 | −0.101 | −0.12 | −0.08 | 300,644 | 12,835 | Donors lean left |
| Baltimore, MD | 29.5 | −0.192 | −0.21 | −0.18 | 404,611 | 16,353 | Donors lean left |
| Charles, MD | 47.6 | −0.299 | −0.34 | −0.26 | 87,750 | 1,989 | Donors lean left |
| Frederick, MD | 9.8 | −0.187 | −0.22 | −0.16 | 141,357 | 4,536 | Donors lean left |
| Howard, MD | 19.2 | −0.420 | −0.44 | −0.40 | 177,823 | 8,811 | Donors lean left |
| Kent, MD | 13.9 | −0.095 | −0.17 | −0.02 | 10,524 | 641 | Donors lean left |
| Montgomery, MD | 18.1 | −0.620 | −0.63 | −0.61 | 520,791 | 44,044 | Donors lean left |
| Prince George's, MD | 59.7 | −0.675 | −0.69 | −0.66 | 416,298 | 13,183 | Donors lean left |
| Talbot, MD | 11.4 | +0.036 | −0.02 | +0.09 | 22,008 | 1,400 | Donors lean right |
| Baltimore city, MD | 60.0 | −0.659 | −0.67 | −0.65 | 232,634 | 11,002 | Donors lean left |
| Barnstable, MA | 2.8 | −0.434 | −0.45 | −0.42 | 147,305 | 8,714 | Donors lean left |
| Berkshire, MA | 2.5 | −0.744 | −0.76 | −0.73 | 69,769 | 4,151 | Donors lean left |
| Bristol, MA | 3.9 | −0.336 | −0.35 | −0.32 | 273,249 | 7,640 | Donors lean left |
| Dukes, MA | 3.4 | −0.789 | −0.83 | −0.75 | 12,545 | 1,132 | Donors lean left |
| Essex, MA | 3.4 | −0.393 | −0.40 | −0.38 | 412,035 | 19,895 | Donors lean left |
| Franklin, MA | 1.1 | −0.815 | −0.84 | −0.79 | 41,231 | 2,730 | Donors lean left |
| Hampden, MA | 7.7 | −0.299 | −0.32 | −0.28 | 213,266 | 7,389 | Donors lean left |
| Hampshire, MA | 2.4 | −0.827 | −0.84 | −0.81 | 85,643 | 7,012 | Donors lean left |
| Middlesex, MA | 4.8 | −0.642 | −0.65 | −0.64 | 844,152 | 65,745 | Donors lean left |
| Nantucket, MA | 8.3 | −0.595 | −0.66 | −0.53 | 7,155 | 473 | Donors lean left |
| Norfolk, MA | 6.9 | −0.413 | −0.42 | −0.40 | 398,606 | 19,805 | Donors lean left |
| Plymouth, MA | 8.4 | −0.280 | −0.30 | −0.26 | 294,857 | 11,536 | Donors lean left |
| Suffolk, MA | 18.3 | −0.658 | −0.66 | −0.65 | 329,135 | 30,811 | Donors lean left |
| Worcester, MA | 4.6 | −0.325 | −0.34 | −0.31 | 420,456 | 16,172 | Donors lean left |
| Genesee, MI | 19.3 | −0.269 | −0.29 | −0.24 | 218,104 | 5,020 | Donors lean left |
| Ingham, MI | 11.1 | −0.330 | −0.35 | −0.31 | 141,851 | 9,117 | Donors lean left |
| Kalamazoo, MI | 10.7 | −0.321 | −0.35 | −0.30 | 140,509 | 5,418 | Donors lean left |
| Kent, MI | 9.2 | −0.058 | −0.08 | −0.04 | 353,656 | 10,227 | Donors lean left |
| Leelanau, MI | 0.5 | −0.378 | −0.43 | −0.32 | 16,711 | 1,155 | Donors lean left |
| Marquette, MI | 1.4 | −0.367 | −0.42 | −0.31 | 36,751 | 1,175 | Donors lean left |
| Muskegon, MI | 12.6 | −0.239 | −0.28 | −0.20 | 90,776 | 2,193 | Donors lean left |
| Oakland, MI | 12.9 | −0.218 | −0.23 | −0.21 | 760,119 | 33,789 | Donors lean left |
| Saginaw, MI | 18.2 | −0.026 | −0.06 | +0.01 | 101,873 | 2,611 | Donors lean left |
| Washtenaw, MI | 11.5 | −0.656 | −0.67 | −0.64 | 213,377 | 14,415 | Donors lean left |
| Wayne, MI | 37.3 | −0.318 | −0.33 | −0.31 | 861,723 | 22,501 | Donors lean left |
| Blue Earth, MN | 4.5 | −0.324 | −0.40 | −0.25 | 35,061 | 706 | Donors lean left |
| Carlton, MN | 2.4 | −0.326 | −0.46 | −0.19 | 19,889 | 266 | Donors lean left |
| Clay, MN | 4.2 | −0.234 | −0.33 | −0.14 | 31,400 | 575 | Donors lean left |
| Cook, MN | 0.7 | −0.742 | −0.84 | −0.64 | 3,699 | 190 | Donors lean left |
| Dakota, MN | 7.0 | −0.301 | −0.33 | −0.27 | 255,793 | 5,568 | Donors lean left |
| Hennepin, MN | 13.2 | −0.536 | −0.55 | −0.53 | 738,596 | 31,656 | Donors lean left |
| Lake, MN | 0.4 | −0.636 | −0.77 | −0.50 | 7,040 | 161 | Donors lean left |
| Nicollet, MN | 3.5 | −0.353 | −0.49 | −0.22 | 18,640 | 237 | Donors lean left |
| Olmsted, MN | 6.9 | −0.313 | −0.36 | −0.27 | 89,183 | 2,017 | Donors lean left |
| Ramsey, MN | 11.8 | −0.631 | −0.65 | −0.61 | 288,996 | 10,485 | Donors lean left |
| St. Louis, MN | 1.6 | −0.470 | −0.51 | −0.43 | 116,721 | 2,515 | Donors lean left |
| Washington, MN | 5.1 | −0.301 | −0.34 | −0.27 | 162,929 | 3,724 | Donors lean left |
| Winona, MN | 1.5 | −0.267 | −0.36 | −0.17 | 26,560 | 490 | Donors lean left |
| Adams, MS | 54.2 | +0.390 | +0.22 | +0.56 | 13,613 | 158 | Donors lean right |
| Bolivar, MS | 63.6 | +0.406 | +0.22 | +0.59 | 13,575 | 129 | Donors lean right |
| Clay, MS | 59.8 | +0.394 | +0.12 | +0.67 | 10,025 | 59 | Donors lean right |
| Coahoma, MS | 75.6 | +0.126 | −0.09 | +0.34 | 8,395 | 90 | Donors lean right |
| Copiah, MS | 51.2 | +0.373 | +0.09 | +0.66 | 12,720 | 54 | Donors lean right |
| Hinds, MS | 72.2 | +0.218 | +0.17 | +0.26 | 98,691 | 1,945 | Donors lean right |
| Holmes, MS | 82.4 | −0.087 | −0.52 | +0.35 | 7,957 | 28 | Donors lean left |
| Jasper, MS | 52.9 | +0.833 | +0.54 | +1.12 | 8,643 | 33 | Donors lean right |
| Leflore, MS | 74.5 | +0.547 | +0.35 | +0.74 | 10,777 | 110 | Donors lean right |
| Marshall, MS | 45.1 | +0.317 | +0.07 | +0.57 | 15,623 | 82 | Donors lean right |
| Noxubee, MS | 72.9 | +0.699 | +0.30 | +1.10 | 5,280 | 27 | Donors lean right |
| Oktibbeha, MS | 36.2 | −0.018 | −0.16 | +0.12 | 19,303 | 266 | Donors lean left |
| Pike, MS | 53.8 | +0.411 | +0.21 | +0.61 | 17,125 | 118 | Donors lean right |
| Sharkey, MS | 75.1 | +0.881 | +0.57 | +1.20 | 2,153 | 25 | Donors lean right |
| Sunflower, MS | 73.3 | +0.708 | +0.51 | +0.90 | 9,580 | 77 | Donors lean right |
| Warren, MS | 48.9 | +0.354 | +0.21 | +0.49 | 20,807 | 239 | Donors lean right |
| Washington, MS | 71.6 | +0.420 | +0.27 | +0.57 | 17,803 | 185 | Donors lean right |
| Yazoo, MS | 56.9 | +0.844 | +0.66 | +1.03 | 10,328 | 92 | Donors lean right |
| Boone, MO | 9.2 | −0.379 | −0.41 | −0.35 | 88,710 | 3,332 | Donors lean left |
| Jackson, MO | 22.5 | −0.448 | −0.47 | −0.43 | 326,377 | 8,537 | Donors lean left |
| St. Louis, MO | 24.1 | −0.266 | −0.28 | −0.25 | 527,644 | 18,470 | Donors lean left |
| St. Louis city, MO | 43.8 | −0.696 | −0.72 | −0.68 | 131,563 | 4,257 | Donors lean left |
| Big Horn, MT | 0.1 | +0.284 | +0.03 | +0.54 | 4,698 | 80 | Donors lean right |
| Blaine, MT | 0.4 | +0.375 | +0.17 | +0.58 | 3,058 | 106 | Donors lean right |
| Deer Lodge, MT | 0.9 | −0.402 | −0.52 | −0.28 | 4,748 | 184 | Donors lean left |
| Gallatin, MT | 0.4 | −0.194 | −0.23 | −0.16 | 68,740 | 3,697 | Donors lean left |
| Glacier, MT | 0.3 | +0.253 | +0.06 | +0.44 | 5,494 | 126 | Donors lean right |
| Missoula, MT | 0.5 | −0.476 | −0.50 | −0.45 | 69,704 | 4,316 | Donors lean left |
| Silver Bow, MT | 0.2 | −0.250 | −0.31 | −0.19 | 18,137 | 807 | Donors lean left |
| Douglas, NE | 10.5 | −0.137 | −0.16 | −0.11 | 269,509 | 5,980 | Donors lean left |
| Lancaster, NE | 3.7 | −0.336 | −0.37 | −0.30 | 152,385 | 3,366 | Donors lean left |
| Clark, NV | 11.5 | −0.086 | −0.10 | −0.07 | 952,782 | 21,629 | Donors lean left |
| Washoe, NV | 2.3 | −0.102 | −0.13 | −0.08 | 244,888 | 8,427 | Donors lean left |
| Carroll, NH | 0.6 | −0.307 | −0.36 | −0.25 | 32,799 | 1,231 | Donors lean left |
| Cheshire, NH | 0.7 | −0.607 | −0.65 | −0.57 | 43,398 | 1,681 | Donors lean left |
| Grafton, NH | 1.1 | −0.645 | −0.67 | −0.61 | 53,085 | 2,708 | Donors lean left |
| Hillsborough, NH | 2.2 | −0.336 | −0.36 | −0.31 | 226,969 | 7,210 | Donors lean left |
| Merrimack, NH | 1.5 | −0.505 | −0.53 | −0.48 | 88,244 | 3,264 | Donors lean left |
| Rockingham, NH | 0.7 | −0.319 | −0.34 | −0.29 | 195,922 | 6,331 | Donors lean left |
| Strafford, NH | 1.1 | −0.553 | −0.59 | −0.51 | 72,210 | 2,041 | Donors lean left |
| Sullivan, NH | 0.6 | −0.545 | −0.61 | −0.48 | 23,898 | 802 | Donors lean left |
| Atlantic, NJ | 13.1 | −0.245 | −0.28 | −0.21 | 138,246 | 2,337 | Donors lean left |
| Bergen, NJ | 5.3 | −0.393 | −0.41 | −0.38 | 490,384 | 14,359 | Donors lean left |
| Burlington, NJ | 15.9 | −0.435 | −0.46 | −0.41 | 257,940 | 5,675 | Donors lean left |
| Camden, NJ | 18.0 | −0.507 | −0.53 | −0.49 | 261,272 | 5,603 | Donors lean left |
| Cumberland, NJ | 17.5 | −0.078 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 61,694 | 735 | Donors lean left |
| Essex, NJ | 36.7 | −0.649 | −0.66 | −0.64 | 342,295 | 12,548 | Donors lean left |
| Gloucester, NJ | 10.1 | −0.350 | −0.39 | −0.31 | 170,042 | 2,108 | Donors lean left |
| Hudson, NJ | 10.6 | −0.722 | −0.74 | −0.70 | 247,150 | 6,251 | Donors lean left |
| Mercer, NJ | 18.8 | −0.561 | −0.58 | −0.54 | 174,173 | 7,770 | Donors lean left |
| Middlesex, NJ | 9.6 | −0.481 | −0.50 | −0.46 | 369,717 | 7,514 | Donors lean left |
| Morris, NJ | 3.0 | −0.273 | −0.29 | −0.25 | 295,015 | 9,213 | Donors lean left |
| Passaic, NJ | 10.0 | −0.324 | −0.36 | −0.29 | 221,106 | 3,427 | Donors lean left |
| Somerset, NJ | 9.3 | −0.347 | −0.37 | −0.32 | 183,169 | 6,234 | Donors lean left |
| Union, NJ | 19.6 | −0.438 | −0.46 | −0.42 | 250,247 | 6,564 | Donors lean left |
| Bernalillo, NM | 2.5 | −0.421 | −0.43 | −0.41 | 309,892 | 17,755 | Donors lean left |
| Cibola, NM | 1.6 | −0.129 | −0.31 | +0.05 | 8,720 | 144 | Donors lean left |
| Doña Ana, NM | 1.4 | −0.245 | −0.28 | −0.21 | 80,759 | 3,540 | Donors lean left |
| Grant, NM | 0.6 | −0.385 | −0.45 | −0.32 | 14,143 | 830 | Donors lean left |
| Guadalupe, NM | 1.8 | −0.239 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 2,151 | 56 | Donors lean left |
| Los Alamos, NM | 0.8 | −0.413 | −0.47 | −0.35 | 11,832 | 1,052 | Donors lean left |
| McKinley, NM | 0.5 | −0.399 | −0.49 | −0.30 | 25,830 | 380 | Donors lean left |
| Mora, NM | 0.0 | −0.273 | −0.51 | −0.04 | 2,648 | 71 | Donors lean left |
| Rio Arriba, NM | 0.5 | −0.615 | −0.68 | −0.55 | 16,398 | 552 | Donors lean left |
| Sandoval, NM | 2.1 | −0.424 | −0.46 | −0.39 | 74,762 | 3,193 | Donors lean left |
| San Miguel, NM | 1.2 | −0.622 | −0.69 | −0.56 | 11,309 | 498 | Donors lean left |
| Santa Fe, NM | 0.8 | −0.754 | −0.77 | −0.74 | 80,859 | 9,669 | Donors lean left |
| Socorro, NM | 0.5 | −0.165 | −0.27 | −0.06 | 6,977 | 359 | Donors lean left |
| Taos, NM | 0.3 | −0.841 | −0.87 | −0.81 | 16,836 | 1,249 | Donors lean left |
| Albany, NY | 11.5 | −0.437 | −0.45 | −0.42 | 150,555 | 6,876 | Donors lean left |
| Bronx, NY | 28.7 | −0.666 | −0.68 | −0.65 | 423,114 | 6,603 | Donors lean left |
| Broome, NY | 5.0 | −0.227 | −0.26 | −0.19 | 90,810 | 2,656 | Donors lean left |
| Clinton, NY | 3.4 | −0.376 | −0.44 | −0.32 | 34,878 | 913 | Donors lean left |
| Columbia, NY | 3.8 | −0.588 | −0.62 | −0.55 | 34,850 | 2,166 | Donors lean left |
| Dutchess, NY | 9.6 | −0.421 | −0.45 | −0.40 | 148,315 | 5,701 | Donors lean left |
| Erie, NY | 12.4 | −0.275 | −0.29 | −0.26 | 464,701 | 11,948 | Donors lean left |
| Essex, NY | 2.4 | −0.435 | −0.50 | −0.37 | 18,923 | 738 | Donors lean left |
| Kings, NY | 28.0 | −0.817 | −0.82 | −0.81 | 906,082 | 53,300 | Donors lean left |
| Monroe, NY | 13.8 | −0.466 | −0.48 | −0.45 | 371,407 | 9,948 | Donors lean left |
| Nassau, NY | 11.0 | −0.233 | −0.24 | −0.22 | 723,220 | 24,604 | Donors lean left |
| New York, NY | 12.4 | −0.722 | −0.73 | −0.72 | 688,225 | 82,833 | Donors lean left |
| Onondaga, NY | 10.4 | −0.357 | −0.38 | −0.34 | 229,513 | 6,799 | Donors lean left |
| Queens, NY | 16.7 | −0.575 | −0.58 | −0.56 | 781,703 | 21,248 | Donors lean left |
| Rensselaer, NY | 6.1 | −0.353 | −0.39 | −0.32 | 77,469 | 2,655 | Donors lean left |
| Rockland, NY | 10.7 | −0.380 | −0.40 | −0.36 | 148,988 | 5,111 | Donors lean left |
| Saratoga, NY | 1.6 | −0.368 | −0.40 | −0.34 | 129,776 | 4,033 | Donors lean left |
| Schenectady, NY | 9.7 | −0.353 | −0.39 | −0.32 | 73,206 | 2,225 | Donors lean left |
| Tompkins, NY | 3.7 | −0.902 | −0.92 | −0.89 | 44,715 | 3,703 | Donors lean left |
| Ulster, NY | 5.6 | −0.705 | −0.73 | −0.69 | 95,560 | 4,766 | Donors lean left |
| Westchester, NY | 13.0 | −0.524 | −0.53 | −0.52 | 457,084 | 28,687 | Donors lean left |
| Anson, NC | 46.4 | +0.095 | −0.11 | +0.30 | 11,110 | 95 | Donors lean right |
| Bertie, NC | 60.3 | +0.174 | −0.04 | +0.39 | 9,756 | 87 | Donors lean right |
| Buncombe, NC | 5.5 | −0.631 | −0.65 | −0.61 | 158,927 | 7,570 | Donors lean left |
| Chatham, NC | 10.6 | −0.577 | −0.61 | −0.54 | 47,973 | 2,423 | Donors lean left |
| Cumberland, NC | 36.5 | −0.020 | −0.06 | +0.02 | 144,501 | 2,442 | Donors lean left |
| Durham, NC | 33.5 | −0.720 | −0.74 | −0.70 | 177,147 | 7,257 | Donors lean left |
| Edgecombe, NC | 56.4 | +0.033 | −0.08 | +0.14 | 25,295 | 263 | Donors lean right |
| Forsyth, NC | 25.0 | −0.122 | −0.15 | −0.09 | 198,097 | 5,065 | Donors lean left |
| Guilford, NC | 33.7 | −0.202 | −0.23 | −0.18 | 280,380 | 6,703 | Donors lean left |
| Halifax, NC | 51.7 | −0.049 | −0.16 | +0.06 | 25,625 | 264 | Donors lean left |
| Hertford, NC | 57.7 | +0.149 | −0.04 | +0.34 | 10,576 | 91 | Donors lean right |
| Hoke, NC | 32.3 | −0.024 | −0.18 | +0.14 | 21,257 | 170 | Donors lean left |
| Mecklenburg, NC | 30.4 | −0.225 | −0.24 | −0.21 | 557,318 | 14,217 | Donors lean left |
| Nash, NC | 40.2 | +0.173 | +0.11 | +0.23 | 51,774 | 932 | Donors lean right |
| New Hanover, NC | 11.8 | −0.112 | −0.14 | −0.08 | 129,469 | 4,063 | Donors lean left |
| Northampton, NC | 54.9 | −0.144 | −0.33 | +0.04 | 10,058 | 102 | Donors lean left |
| Orange, NC | 10.5 | −0.790 | −0.80 | −0.78 | 83,770 | 6,374 | Donors lean left |
| Pasquotank, NC | 35.0 | +0.048 | −0.07 | +0.16 | 19,602 | 285 | Donors lean right |
| Pitt, NC | 34.7 | −0.011 | −0.06 | +0.04 | 86,234 | 1,596 | Donors lean left |
| Vance, NC | 48.2 | +0.067 | −0.04 | +0.18 | 20,822 | 263 | Donors lean right |
| Wake, NC | 19.1 | −0.345 | −0.36 | −0.33 | 619,533 | 19,577 | Donors lean left |
| Warren, NC | 48.6 | −0.064 | −0.25 | +0.13 | 10,152 | 131 | Donors lean left |
| Washington, NC | 48.1 | +0.253 | +0.01 | +0.50 | 6,177 | 71 | Donors lean right |
| Watauga, NC | 1.6 | −0.450 | −0.51 | −0.39 | 31,573 | 1,050 | Donors lean left |
| Wilson, NC | 39.0 | +0.154 | +0.08 | +0.23 | 40,335 | 655 | Donors lean right |
| Rolette, ND | 0.4 | −0.554 | −0.85 | −0.25 | 3,739 | 33 | Donors lean left |
| Athens, OH | 2.5 | −0.450 | −0.49 | −0.41 | 25,634 | 1,548 | Donors lean left |
| Cuyahoga, OH | 28.7 | −0.276 | −0.29 | −0.26 | 618,875 | 23,440 | Donors lean left |
| Franklin, OH | 22.8 | −0.242 | −0.25 | −0.23 | 620,381 | 24,733 | Donors lean left |
| Hamilton, OH | 24.7 | −0.064 | −0.08 | −0.05 | 424,152 | 16,160 | Donors lean left |
| Lucas, OH | 18.8 | −0.112 | −0.14 | −0.09 | 197,174 | 5,534 | Donors lean left |
| Montgomery, OH | 20.4 | −0.042 | −0.06 | −0.02 | 264,098 | 7,598 | Donors lean left |
| Summit, OH | 14.0 | −0.160 | −0.18 | −0.14 | 276,501 | 8,586 | Donors lean left |
| Benton, OR | 1.1 | −0.775 | −0.80 | −0.75 | 50,705 | 2,808 | Donors lean left |
| Clackamas, OR | 0.9 | −0.508 | −0.53 | −0.49 | 249,552 | 8,097 | Donors lean left |
| Clatsop, OR | 0.8 | −0.584 | −0.65 | −0.52 | 23,134 | 710 | Donors lean left |
| Deschutes, OR | 0.4 | −0.490 | −0.52 | −0.46 | 121,608 | 4,163 | Donors lean left |
| Hood River, OR | 0.7 | −0.595 | −0.66 | −0.53 | 12,719 | 611 | Donors lean left |
| Lane, OR | 1.0 | −0.713 | −0.73 | −0.70 | 214,702 | 8,764 | Donors lean left |
| Lincoln, OR | 0.3 | −0.692 | −0.74 | −0.64 | 29,845 | 1,091 | Donors lean left |
| Marion, OR | 1.1 | −0.388 | −0.42 | −0.36 | 159,874 | 4,011 | Donors lean left |
| Multnomah, OR | 5.3 | −0.832 | −0.84 | −0.82 | 450,244 | 27,726 | Donors lean left |
| Washington, OR | 2.1 | −0.624 | −0.64 | −0.61 | 309,013 | 10,104 | Donors lean left |
| Allegheny, PA | 12.6 | −0.360 | −0.37 | −0.35 | 713,672 | 22,455 | Donors lean left |
| Bucks, PA | 3.7 | −0.315 | −0.33 | −0.30 | 392,079 | 11,801 | Donors lean left |
| Centre, PA | 3.2 | −0.466 | −0.50 | −0.43 | 76,427 | 2,948 | Donors lean left |
| Chester, PA | 5.1 | −0.309 | −0.33 | −0.29 | 310,937 | 11,849 | Donors lean left |
| Dauphin, PA | 17.0 | −0.077 | −0.11 | −0.04 | 145,391 | 3,383 | Donors lean left |
| Delaware, PA | 21.6 | −0.342 | −0.36 | −0.32 | 324,955 | 10,870 | Donors lean left |
| Erie, PA | 6.9 | −0.137 | −0.18 | −0.10 | 135,155 | 2,515 | Donors lean left |
| Lackawanna, PA | 2.8 | −0.364 | −0.39 | −0.34 | 114,325 | 2,937 | Donors lean left |
| Lehigh, PA | 5.8 | −0.156 | −0.19 | −0.12 | 182,547 | 4,019 | Donors lean left |
| Monroe, PA | 12.9 | −0.154 | −0.20 | −0.10 | 82,786 | 1,720 | Donors lean left |
| Montgomery, PA | 9.1 | −0.424 | −0.44 | −0.41 | 504,971 | 19,994 | Donors lean left |
| Northampton, PA | 5.5 | −0.229 | −0.26 | −0.20 | 168,941 | 3,962 | Donors lean left |
| Philadelphia, PA | 39.2 | −0.708 | −0.72 | −0.70 | 736,530 | 22,171 | Donors lean left |
| Bristol, RI | 1.0 | −0.572 | −0.61 | −0.54 | 27,795 | 1,478 | Donors lean left |
| Kent, RI | 1.7 | −0.354 | −0.39 | −0.32 | 91,114 | 2,527 | Donors lean left |
| Newport, RI | 3.6 | −0.526 | −0.56 | −0.49 | 45,208 | 2,168 | Donors lean left |
| Providence, RI | 7.5 | −0.567 | −0.58 | −0.55 | 267,563 | 9,814 | Donors lean left |
| Washington, RI | 1.2 | −0.488 | −0.52 | −0.46 | 74,367 | 3,048 | Donors lean left |
| Allendale, SC | 69.7 | +0.462 | +0.11 | +0.81 | 3,553 | 30 | Donors lean right |
| Bamberg, SC | 59.2 | −0.137 | −0.37 | +0.10 | 6,427 | 58 | Donors lean left |
| Charleston, SC | 24.3 | −0.073 | −0.10 | −0.05 | 214,782 | 7,861 | Donors lean left |
| Fairfield, SC | 55.8 | +0.017 | −0.15 | +0.19 | 12,007 | 136 | Donors lean right |
| Hampton, SC | 52.2 | +0.276 | +0.03 | +0.52 | 9,229 | 63 | Donors lean right |
| Jasper, SC | 36.8 | +0.059 | −0.07 | +0.19 | 14,263 | 314 | Donors lean right |
| Lee, SC | 62.8 | +0.203 | −0.04 | +0.45 | 8,337 | 64 | Donors lean right |
| Marion, SC | 55.8 | −0.067 | −0.19 | +0.05 | 14,583 | 188 | Donors lean left |
| Marlboro, SC | 48.8 | −0.001 | −0.17 | +0.17 | 11,334 | 102 | Donors lean left |
| Orangeburg, SC | 61.0 | −0.075 | −0.16 | +0.01 | 40,898 | 485 | Donors lean left |
| Richland, SC | 46.9 | −0.065 | −0.09 | −0.04 | 190,883 | 6,257 | Donors lean left |
| Sumter, SC | 46.3 | +0.307 | +0.22 | +0.39 | 48,379 | 563 | Donors lean right |
| Williamsburg, SC | 63.6 | +0.169 | 0.00 | +0.34 | 15,821 | 133 | Donors lean right |
| Clay, SD | 1.8 | −0.449 | −0.59 | −0.30 | 5,539 | 161 | Donors lean left |
| Davidson, TN | 25.5 | −0.316 | −0.33 | −0.30 | 299,921 | 11,400 | Donors lean left |
| Haywood, TN | 49.8 | +0.424 | +0.15 | +0.70 | 7,355 | 62 | Donors lean right |
| Shelby, TN | 52.9 | −0.008 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 375,920 | 7,775 | Donors lean left |
| Bexar, TX | 7.2 | +0.015 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 757,070 | 21,728 | Donors lean right |
| Cameron, TX | 0.4 | +0.101 | +0.05 | +0.15 | 113,095 | 1,628 | Donors lean right |
| Dallas, TX | 22.2 | −0.098 | −0.11 | −0.09 | 905,652 | 34,865 | Donors lean left |
| Dimmit, TX | 0.6 | +0.734 | +0.44 | +1.03 | 3,648 | 39 | Donors lean right |
| Duval, TX | 1.0 | −0.111 | −0.45 | +0.23 | 5,018 | 42 | Donors lean left |
| El Paso, TX | 3.0 | −0.105 | −0.13 | −0.08 | 262,457 | 5,462 | Donors lean left |
| Fort Bend, TX | 20.2 | +0.076 | +0.05 | +0.10 | 353,270 | 7,548 | Donors lean right |
| Harris, TX | 18.6 | +0.031 | +0.02 | +0.04 | 1,618,823 | 52,471 | Donors lean right |
| Hays, TX | 3.8 | −0.294 | −0.33 | −0.26 | 107,204 | 3,889 | Donors lean left |
| Hidalgo, TX | 0.5 | −0.005 | −0.04 | +0.03 | 218,726 | 3,097 | Donors lean left |
| Jim Hogg, TX | 0.2 | +0.374 | −0.08 | +0.83 | 2,030 | 25 | Donors lean right |
| Maverick, TX | 0.3 | +0.158 | −0.04 | +0.36 | 15,213 | 95 | Donors lean right |
| Presidio, TX | 0.0 | −0.518 | −0.74 | −0.30 | 2,184 | 69 | Donors lean left |
| Starr, TX | 0.2 | +0.200 | +0.04 | +0.36 | 17,370 | 117 | Donors lean right |
| Tarrant, TX | 16.8 | +0.074 | +0.06 | +0.09 | 821,308 | 21,852 | Donors lean right |
| Travis, TX | 7.9 | −0.498 | −0.51 | −0.49 | 597,197 | 38,262 | Donors lean left |
| Webb, TX | 0.4 | −0.109 | −0.16 | −0.05 | 67,718 | 1,119 | Donors lean left |
| Willacy, TX | 1.1 | +0.660 | +0.41 | +0.91 | 5,549 | 69 | Donors lean right |
| Williamson, TX | 6.4 | −0.172 | −0.20 | −0.15 | 283,524 | 8,006 | Donors lean left |
| Zavala, TX | 0.8 | +0.301 | −0.10 | +0.70 | 4,354 | 32 | Donors lean right |
| Grand, UT | 0.2 | −0.683 | −0.79 | −0.58 | 5,054 | 241 | Donors lean left |
| Salt Lake, UT | 1.7 | −0.376 | −0.39 | −0.36 | 520,080 | 12,366 | Donors lean left |
| Summit, UT | 0.5 | −0.430 | −0.48 | −0.38 | 25,496 | 1,337 | Donors lean left |
| Addison, VT | 1.0 | −0.800 | −0.84 | −0.76 | 21,259 | 1,288 | Donors lean left |
| Bennington, VT | 1.0 | −0.692 | −0.74 | −0.64 | 19,819 | 905 | Donors lean left |
| Caledonia, VT | 0.7 | −0.723 | −0.78 | −0.66 | 15,562 | 557 | Donors lean left |
| Chittenden, VT | 2.4 | −0.808 | −0.82 | −0.79 | 95,978 | 5,183 | Donors lean left |
| Franklin, VT | 0.3 | −0.520 | −0.60 | −0.44 | 24,885 | 460 | Donors lean left |
| Grand Isle, VT | 0.6 | −0.762 | −0.86 | −0.66 | 4,715 | 207 | Donors lean left |
| Lamoille, VT | 0.9 | −0.639 | −0.70 | −0.57 | 14,403 | 603 | Donors lean left |
| Orange, VT | 0.4 | −0.841 | −0.88 | −0.80 | 16,491 | 889 | Donors lean left |
| Orleans, VT | 0.8 | −0.708 | −0.79 | −0.63 | 13,659 | 369 | Donors lean left |
| Rutland, VT | 0.7 | −0.634 | −0.69 | −0.58 | 32,902 | 935 | Donors lean left |
| Washington, VT | 0.8 | −0.818 | −0.84 | −0.79 | 34,119 | 2,172 | Donors lean left |
| Windham, VT | 0.9 | −0.899 | −0.92 | −0.88 | 25,207 | 1,819 | Donors lean left |
| Windsor, VT | 0.6 | −0.843 | −0.87 | −0.82 | 33,347 | 1,833 | Donors lean left |
| Albemarle, VA | 9.1 | −0.495 | −0.53 | −0.46 | 63,270 | 3,609 | Donors lean left |
| Arlington, VA | 9.1 | −0.552 | −0.57 | −0.54 | 127,662 | 12,157 | Donors lean left |
| Brunswick, VA | 52.8 | +0.117 | −0.19 | +0.42 | 7,909 | 57 | Donors lean right |
| Charles City, VA | 42.2 | +0.167 | −0.14 | +0.47 | 4,385 | 57 | Donors lean right |
| Chesterfield, VA | 22.7 | −0.121 | −0.16 | −0.09 | 200,261 | 3,855 | Donors lean left |
| Fairfax, VA | 9.5 | −0.335 | −0.35 | −0.33 | 588,344 | 35,920 | Donors lean left |
| Henrico, VA | 29.3 | −0.219 | −0.25 | −0.19 | 180,012 | 5,120 | Donors lean left |
| James City, VA | 12.4 | −0.127 | −0.18 | −0.07 | 48,706 | 1,743 | Donors lean left |
| Loudoun, VA | 7.5 | −0.284 | −0.31 | −0.26 | 220,460 | 6,211 | Donors lean left |
| Montgomery, VA | 4.0 | −0.532 | −0.58 | −0.48 | 43,847 | 1,221 | Donors lean left |
| Northampton, VA | 31.3 | −0.214 | −0.37 | −0.05 | 6,622 | 170 | Donors lean left |
| Prince Edward, VA | 30.5 | −0.102 | −0.29 | +0.08 | 9,407 | 138 | Donors lean left |
| Prince William, VA | 20.0 | −0.115 | −0.15 | −0.08 | 224,085 | 4,228 | Donors lean left |
| Stafford, VA | 18.5 | −0.038 | −0.10 | +0.02 | 77,881 | 1,393 | Donors lean left |
| Surry, VA | 41.1 | +0.111 | −0.26 | +0.48 | 4,422 | 42 | Donors lean right |
| Sussex, VA | 54.8 | −0.367 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 5,046 | 26 | Donors lean left |
| Alexandria city, VA | 21.1 | −0.412 | −0.43 | −0.39 | 80,784 | 5,491 | Donors lean left |
| Charlottesville city, VA | 17.0 | −0.809 | −0.84 | −0.78 | 23,790 | 1,437 | Donors lean left |
| Chesapeake city, VA | 28.8 | +0.021 | −0.04 | +0.08 | 124,557 | 1,616 | Donors lean right |
| Danville city, VA | 49.5 | +0.194 | +0.07 | +0.32 | 19,138 | 266 | Donors lean right |
| Fairfax city, VA | 5.7 | −0.353 | −0.42 | −0.29 | 13,181 | 793 | Donors lean left |
| Falls Church city, VA | 4.1 | −0.621 | −0.67 | −0.57 | 8,636 | 942 | Donors lean left |
| Franklin city, VA | 54.7 | +0.172 | −0.20 | +0.55 | 4,012 | 39 | Donors lean right |
| Fredericksburg city, VA | 18.9 | −0.265 | −0.35 | −0.18 | 12,554 | 502 | Donors lean left |
| Hampton city, VA | 48.7 | −0.359 | −0.42 | −0.30 | 64,650 | 1,126 | Donors lean left |
| Harrisonburg city, VA | 7.1 | −0.319 | −0.43 | −0.21 | 16,613 | 365 | Donors lean left |
| Hopewell city, VA | 41.9 | −0.190 | −0.48 | +0.10 | 9,450 | 50 | Donors lean left |
| Lexington city, VA | 6.0 | −0.540 | −0.66 | −0.42 | 2,697 | 192 | Donors lean left |
| Lynchburg city, VA | 27.6 | −0.084 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 35,145 | 747 | Donors lean left |
| Manassas city, VA | 12.2 | −0.158 | −0.26 | −0.06 | 16,612 | 483 | Donors lean left |
| Manassas Park city, VA | 13.8 | −0.109 | −0.32 | +0.10 | 5,971 | 108 | Donors lean left |
| Martinsville city, VA | 44.6 | +0.060 | −0.10 | +0.22 | 5,931 | 143 | Donors lean right |
| Newport News city, VA | 40.3 | −0.164 | −0.22 | −0.11 | 79,476 | 1,291 | Donors lean left |
| Norfolk city, VA | 39.5 | −0.358 | −0.40 | −0.32 | 87,883 | 2,173 | Donors lean left |
| Petersburg city, VA | 75.2 | −0.285 | −0.46 | −0.11 | 13,973 | 107 | Donors lean left |
| Portsmouth city, VA | 51.1 | −0.207 | −0.30 | −0.12 | 43,703 | 528 | Donors lean left |
| Radford city, VA | 9.5 | −0.325 | −0.50 | −0.15 | 6,144 | 136 | Donors lean left |
| Richmond city, VA | 43.2 | −0.371 | −0.40 | −0.34 | 108,778 | 3,714 | Donors lean left |
| Roanoke city, VA | 28.1 | −0.234 | −0.29 | −0.17 | 42,380 | 1,108 | Donors lean left |
| Staunton city, VA | 10.5 | −0.429 | −0.53 | −0.33 | 12,676 | 388 | Donors lean left |
| Suffolk city, VA | 41.1 | −0.099 | −0.18 | −0.02 | 48,758 | 662 | Donors lean left |
| Virginia Beach city, VA | 18.2 | +0.035 | 0.00 | +0.07 | 222,480 | 4,904 | Donors lean right |
| Williamsburg city, VA | 14.7 | −0.316 | −0.40 | −0.24 | 6,753 | 608 | Donors lean left |
| Winchester city, VA | 8.8 | −0.087 | −0.19 | +0.01 | 11,831 | 420 | Donors lean left |
| Clallam, WA | 0.9 | −0.296 | −0.34 | −0.25 | 47,783 | 2,417 | Donors lean left |
| Clark, WA | 1.9 | −0.357 | −0.38 | −0.34 | 266,627 | 8,984 | Donors lean left |
| Island, WA | 2.4 | −0.402 | −0.44 | −0.37 | 51,959 | 3,211 | Donors lean left |
| Jefferson, WA | 0.5 | −0.680 | −0.71 | −0.65 | 24,135 | 2,303 | Donors lean left |
| King, WA | 6.4 | −0.617 | −0.62 | −0.61 | 1,176,477 | 82,113 | Donors lean left |
| Kitsap, WA | 2.3 | −0.457 | −0.48 | −0.44 | 151,840 | 7,507 | Donors lean left |
| Pierce, WA | 6.8 | −0.234 | −0.25 | −0.22 | 447,236 | 13,942 | Donors lean left |
| San Juan, WA | 0.5 | −0.672 | −0.72 | −0.63 | 12,782 | 1,295 | Donors lean left |
| Skagit, WA | 0.7 | −0.335 | −0.37 | −0.30 | 71,014 | 3,117 | Donors lean left |
| Snohomish, WA | 3.4 | −0.344 | −0.36 | −0.33 | 423,156 | 13,697 | Donors lean left |
| Thurston, WA | 3.0 | −0.485 | −0.50 | −0.47 | 161,885 | 8,440 | Donors lean left |
| Whatcom, WA | 0.9 | −0.509 | −0.53 | −0.49 | 134,149 | 6,667 | Donors lean left |
| Whitman, WA | 1.6 | −0.151 | −0.22 | −0.08 | 20,251 | 832 | Donors lean left |
| Ashland, WI | 0.6 | −0.521 | −0.62 | −0.42 | 8,642 | 345 | Donors lean left |
| Bayfield, WI | 0.5 | −0.542 | −0.61 | −0.48 | 10,764 | 753 | Donors lean left |
| Dane, WI | 4.9 | −0.599 | −0.61 | −0.59 | 338,985 | 25,420 | Donors lean left |
| Door, WI | 0.2 | −0.193 | −0.26 | −0.13 | 19,796 | 1,177 | Donors lean left |
| Douglas, WI | 1.0 | −0.233 | −0.31 | −0.16 | 24,141 | 709 | Donors lean left |
| Eau Claire, WI | 1.2 | −0.142 | −0.18 | −0.10 | 56,961 | 3,014 | Donors lean left |
| Green, WI | 0.7 | −0.025 | −0.11 | +0.06 | 21,020 | 700 | Donors lean left |
| Iowa, WI | 0.8 | −0.271 | −0.35 | −0.20 | 13,737 | 726 | Donors lean left |
| La Crosse, WI | 1.6 | −0.220 | −0.26 | −0.18 | 66,530 | 3,429 | Donors lean left |
| Menominee, WI | 0.5 | +0.032 | −0.43 | +0.49 | 1,581 | 29 | Donors lean right |
| Milwaukee, WI | 25.7 | −0.462 | −0.47 | −0.45 | 451,627 | 23,734 | Donors lean left |
| Portage, WI | 0.7 | −0.195 | −0.24 | −0.15 | 39,727 | 1,715 | Donors lean left |
| Rock, WI | 4.6 | −0.052 | −0.09 | −0.01 | 83,796 | 2,935 | Donors lean left |
| Sauk, WI | 0.7 | −0.062 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 35,601 | 1,347 | Donors lean left |
| Albany, WY | 1.0 | −0.364 | −0.44 | −0.29 | 17,671 | 649 | Donors lean left |
| Teton, WY | 0.6 | −0.230 | −0.29 | −0.17 | 14,189 | 1,158 | Donors lean left |

Note: Votes are full counts. The data table gives each county's 95% interval for its donor lean, which treats its reliable donors as independent draws; the tooltip gives n, the number of reliable donors, and a county with a small pool has a noisy donor lean. The intervals on the binned means are 95% intervals across the counties in each bin.

Note: The counties of Connecticut, which have no college share or median income in the demographic file, are left out.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted, county values are counted once, and the second set of estimates is weighted by 2020 two-party votes

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/black_share_gradient.json

### Table 6. The adjusted Black share slope is above zero when each county counts once and includes zero when counties are weighted by votes

Regression coefficients of county donor lean, per 10 points of Black share or college share, Democratic-voting counties (n = 498), 95% intervals from standard errors clustered on state

| Measure | Weighting | Change in donor lean per 10 points | 95% interval, low | 95% interval, high | Counties |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Black share, alone | Each county counted once | +0.101 | +0.077 | +0.125 | 498 |
| Black share, alone | Weighted by two-party votes | +0.040 | +0.005 | +0.075 | 498 |
| Black share, adjusted | Each county counted once | +0.068 | +0.042 | +0.094 | 498 |
| Black share, adjusted | Weighted by two-party votes | +0.028 | −0.006 | +0.062 | 498 |
| College share, adjusted | Each county counted once | −0.120 | −0.156 | −0.085 | 498 |
| College share, adjusted | Weighted by two-party votes | −0.108 | −0.154 | −0.061 | 498 |

Note: Adjusted rows hold the other two measures fixed in one regression. Democratic-voting counties without a college share or median household income, which are in Connecticut, are left out.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; donors are not weighted; regression estimates count each county once or weight by 2020 two-party votes

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/black_slopes.json

### Table 7. Mississippi holds 7 of the 10 Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors

The 10 Democratic-voting counties with the highest mean CFscore of reliable donors and the 10 Republican-voting counties with the lowest, among counties with a pool large enough to rank, 2020 vote

| County | Group | Democratic share (%) | Donor lean (mean CFscore) | 95% interval, low | 95% interval, high | Reliable donors | Black share (%) |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Yazoo, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 53.2 | +0.84 | +0.66 | +1.03 | 92 | 56.9 |
| Sunflower, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 70.8 | +0.71 | +0.51 | +0.91 | 77 | 73.3 |
| Washington, GA | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 50.4 | +0.68 | +0.49 | +0.86 | 117 | 53.0 |
| Leflore, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 71.0 | +0.55 | +0.35 | +0.74 | 110 | 74.5 |
| Iberville Parish, LA | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 51.9 | +0.46 | +0.32 | +0.60 | 170 | 45.8 |
| Caddo Parish, LA | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 53.4 | +0.43 | +0.39 | +0.48 | 2,088 | 48.9 |
| Washington, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 70.2 | +0.42 | +0.27 | +0.57 | 185 | 71.6 |
| Pike, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 50.5 | +0.41 | +0.21 | +0.61 | 118 | 53.8 |
| Bolivar, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 65.6 | +0.41 | +0.22 | +0.59 | 129 | 63.6 |
| Adams, MS | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | 58.2 | +0.39 | +0.22 | +0.56 | 158 | 54.2 |
| Floyd, VA | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 32.5 | −0.65 | −0.77 | −0.53 | 192 | 2.1 |
| Schuyler, NY | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 41.0 | −0.61 | −0.71 | −0.50 | 232 | 0.9 |
| Jackson, OR | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 48.2 | −0.60 | −0.63 | −0.58 | 4,773 | 0.7 |
| Tillamook, OR | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 49.1 | −0.60 | −0.68 | −0.52 | 492 | 0.7 |
| Trinity, CA | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 47.2 | −0.56 | −0.70 | −0.41 | 161 | 0.8 |
| Nelson, VA | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 47.3 | −0.52 | −0.61 | −0.42 | 351 | 12.0 |
| Washington, ME | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 39.9 | −0.51 | −0.61 | −0.42 | 372 | 0.6 |
| Madison, NC | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 38.1 | −0.51 | −0.60 | −0.42 | 371 | 1.2 |
| Rice, MN | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 49.9 | −0.51 | −0.57 | −0.44 | 842 | 6.2 |
| St. Lawrence, NY | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | 44.0 | −0.50 | −0.57 | −0.44 | 865 | 2.2 |

Note: Counties are named only when their pool has enough donors to rank; the smallest pools are in the map and the scatter but not in this figure.

Note: Votes are full counts. The interval is the 95% interval of the county's donor mean and treats its donors as independent draws.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/named_counties.json

### Table 8. Democratic-voting counties diverge mostly in small pools, Republican-voting counties in large ones

Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by number of reliable donors in the county, for Democratic-voting and Republican-voting counties, 2020 vote

| Reliable donors in the county | Vote | Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way) | Divergent counties | Counties |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 25 to 49 donors | Democratic-voting counties | 78.6 | 22 | 28 |
| 50 to 99 donors | Democratic-voting counties | 74.2 | 23 | 31 |
| 100 to 199 donors | Democratic-voting counties | 45.9 | 17 | 37 |
| 200 to 499 donors | Democratic-voting counties | 25.6 | 10 | 39 |
| 500 to 999 donors | Democratic-voting counties | 11.8 | 6 | 51 |
| 1,000 or more donors | Democratic-voting counties | 6.3 | 20 | 318 |
| 25 to 49 donors | Republican-voting counties | 12.9 | 41 | 318 |
| 50 to 99 donors | Republican-voting counties | 12.6 | 59 | 468 |
| 100 to 199 donors | Republican-voting counties | 12.8 | 57 | 445 |
| 200 to 499 donors | Republican-voting counties | 21.6 | 117 | 542 |
| 500 to 999 donors | Republican-voting counties | 33.7 | 88 | 261 |
| 1,000 or more donors | Republican-voting counties | 36.5 | 110 | 301 |

Note: Each bar is the share of the counties in the analysis in that band, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/pool_size.json

### Table 9. Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors are 63.5% of Northeast counties and 12.5% of Southern ones

Share of counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote, by Census region, for Republican-voting and Democratic-voting counties, 2020 vote

| Region | Vote | Divergent counties (% of counties voting that way) | Divergent counties | Counties |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Northeast | Republican-voting counties | 63.5 | 73 | 115 |
| Northeast | Democratic-voting counties | 0.0 | 0 | 102 |
| West | Republican-voting counties | 27.8 | 76 | 273 |
| West | Democratic-voting counties | 5.1 | 6 | 117 |
| Midwest | Republican-voting counties | 22.1 | 184 | 832 |
| Midwest | Democratic-voting counties | 3.6 | 3 | 83 |
| South | Republican-voting counties | 12.5 | 139 | 1,115 |
| South | Democratic-voting counties | 44.1 | 89 | 202 |

Note: Each bar is the share of the counties in that region, so it carries no sampling interval; the tooltip gives the number of counties.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/regions.json

### Table 10. The number of divergent counties runs from 112 to 1,030 across the definitions tested

Counties whose donor pool leans opposite to the vote under the chapter's definition and under changes to the donor pool, the pool floor, the vote year, the neutral point of the donor scale and the divergence rule

| Definition | Divergent counties | Share of counties (%) | Democratic vote, right-leaning donors | Republican vote, left-leaning donors | Counties | Share of votes (%) |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Chapter definition | 570 | 20.1 | 98 | 472 | 2,839 | 16.0 |
| Donor pool: at least 15 distinct recipients | 617 | 25.4 | 75 | 542 | 2,432 | 18.3 |
| Donor pool: all donors with a CFscore | 301 | 9.7 | 188 | 113 | 3,105 | 18.3 |
| Vote year: 2024 | 590 | 20.8 | 68 | 522 | 2,835 | 22.6 |
| Pool floor: at least 75 donors per county | 462 | 20.9 | 62 | 400 | 2,212 | 16.0 |
| Neutral point: mean of all donors | 344 | 12.1 | 240 | 104 | 2,839 | 26.9 |
| Neutral point: median county | 1,030 | 36.3 | 57 | 973 | 2,839 | 24.5 |
| Divergence rule: both cut points cleared | 112 | 3.9 | 27 | 85 | 2,839 | 1.2 |

Note: The 2024 row leaves out four Missouri counties (Jackson, Clay, Platte and Cass) because the 2024 returns report Kansas City separately from them.

Note: Votes are full counts. Each row counts counties once, and the share of votes is weighted by 2020 two-party votes.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020 and 2024 (repaired file); donors are not weighted, counties are counted once, and the share of votes is weighted by two-party votes

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/definitions.json

### Table 11. Counties at least 30% Black sit to the right of other Democratic-voting counties in every donor cohort

Mean CFscore of reliable donors, or the difference between two groups of counties, by the election cycles in which donors first gave, Democratic-voting counties with a large Black share and other Democratic-voting counties, 2020 vote

| County set | Donor cohort | Group | Mean CFscore, or difference | 95% interval, low | 95% interval, high | Counties (donors for all) | Counties with a right-leaning pool | Counties with a right-leaning pool (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 1980-96 | Counties at least 30% Black | +0.395 | +0.308 | +0.482 | 68 | 59 | 86.8 |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 1980-96 | Other Democratic-voting counties | +0.205 | +0.168 | +0.242 | 317 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 1980-96 | All reliable donors | +0.228 | +0.225 | +0.230 | 422,794 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 1998-2008 | Counties at least 30% Black | +0.193 | +0.116 | +0.269 | 90 | 63 | 70.0 |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 1998-2008 | Other Democratic-voting counties | −0.176 | −0.207 | −0.145 | 363 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 1998-2008 | All reliable donors | −0.081 | −0.083 | −0.080 | 1,562,979 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 2010-16 | Counties at least 30% Black | −0.304 | −0.366 | −0.242 | 72 | 7 | 9.7 |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 2010-16 | Other Democratic-voting counties | −0.565 | −0.587 | −0.543 | 356 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 2010-16 | All reliable donors | −0.467 | −0.469 | −0.465 | 1,249,312 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 2018-24 | Counties at least 30% Black | −0.239 | −0.315 | −0.163 | 80 | 18 | 22.5 |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 2018-24 | Other Democratic-voting counties | −0.560 | −0.580 | −0.540 | 356 | n/a | n/a |
| Every county with a pool | First gave 2018-24 | All reliable donors | −0.457 | −0.459 | −0.455 | 1,482,136 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 1980-96 | Counties at least 30% Black | +0.363 | +0.272 | +0.454 | 59 | 50 | 84.7 |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 1980-96 | Other Democratic-voting counties | +0.204 | +0.167 | +0.241 | 315 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 1980-96 | All reliable donors | +0.228 | +0.225 | +0.230 | 422,794 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 1998-2008 | Counties at least 30% Black | +0.135 | +0.038 | +0.231 | 59 | 38 | 64.4 |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 1998-2008 | Other Democratic-voting counties | −0.180 | −0.212 | −0.147 | 315 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 1998-2008 | All reliable donors | −0.081 | −0.083 | −0.080 | 1,562,979 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 2010-16 | Counties at least 30% Black | −0.311 | −0.383 | −0.238 | 59 | 6 | 10.2 |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 2010-16 | Other Democratic-voting counties | −0.557 | −0.581 | −0.534 | 315 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 2010-16 | All reliable donors | −0.467 | −0.469 | −0.465 | 1,249,312 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 2018-24 | Counties at least 30% Black | −0.305 | −0.390 | −0.220 | 59 | 10 | 16.9 |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 2018-24 | Other Democratic-voting counties | −0.562 | −0.583 | −0.542 | 315 | n/a | n/a |
| Same counties in every cohort | First gave 2018-24 | All reliable donors | −0.457 | −0.459 | −0.455 | 1,482,136 | n/a | n/a |
| Gap between the two groups | First gave 1980-96 | Difference in mean donor lean | +0.190 | +0.095 | +0.285 | 385 | n/a | n/a |
| Gap between the two groups | First gave 1998-2008 | Difference in mean donor lean | +0.368 | +0.286 | +0.451 | 453 | n/a | n/a |
| Gap between the two groups | First gave 2010-16 | Difference in mean donor lean | +0.261 | +0.195 | +0.327 | 428 | n/a | n/a |
| Gap between the two groups | First gave 2018-24 | Difference in mean donor lean | +0.320 | +0.242 | +0.399 | 436 | n/a | n/a |

Views: Every county with a pool (set = Every county with a pool); Same counties in every cohort (set = Same counties in every cohort); Gap between the two groups (set = Gap between the two groups).

Note: A donor's CFscore is fixed, so a difference between cohorts is a difference in who gave, and a cohort is the set of donors whose first cycle falls in the window.

Note: The second view keeps only the counties that have a pool in every cohort; the third plots the difference between the two groups of counties.

Note: Intervals on county groups are 95% intervals from the spread of county means; the interval of the gray dot treats donors as independent draws.

Source: DIME public version 4.0, reliable donors by most recent county, 1980-2024; county presidential returns, 2020; county demographics, 2020; full counts of records, no weights

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/cohorts.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (158), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| bal_gap_max | 0.31 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties, largest across the four cohorts | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors in every cohort | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.21 to 0.42 | 374 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| bal_gap_min | 0.16 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties, smallest across the four cohorts | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors in every cohort | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.06 to 0.26 | 374 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| bal_k | 59 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black with a pool in every cohort | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 59 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| big_black_k | 10 | counties | size of the group compared | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, the ones with the most two-party votes | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| big_k | 100 | counties | size of the group compared | the counties of the frame with the most two-party votes | 2020 presidential vote |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| black_cut | 30% | percent of residents, non-Hispanic Black | definition of a group | counties grouped as at least 30% Black | 2020 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | County demographics panel |   |
| cell_floor | 10 | counties | minimum number of counties for a band to be plotted | a band on one side of the vote | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| college_net_eq | −0.120 | CFscore units per 10 points of college share | regression coefficient of county donor lean on college share, net of Black share and median income | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI −0.156 to −0.085 | 498 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | State-clustered standard errors (46 states). |
| college_net_w | −0.108 | CFscore units per 10 points of college share | regression coefficient of county donor lean on college share, net of Black share and median income | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI −0.154 to −0.061 | 498 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME | State-clustered standard errors (46 states). |
| college_rl | 24.2% | percent of adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree | median county college share | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 472 | none (full counts of counties) | County demographics panel |   |
| college_rr | 19.6% | percent of adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree | median county college share | Republican-voting counties with right-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 1,863 | none (full counts of counties) | County demographics panel |   |
| corr_black_all_eq | +0.55 | correlation coefficient | correlation of donor lean and Black share | Democratic-voting counties with a 2020 Black share and at least 25 reliable donors, all donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 528 | none (each county counted once) | DIME |   |
| corr_black_all_w | +0.06 | correlation coefficient | correlation of donor lean and Black share | Democratic-voting counties with a 2020 Black share and at least 25 reliable donors, all donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 528 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME |   |
| corr_black_eq | +0.62 | correlation coefficient | correlation of county donor lean and Black share | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.55 to 0.69 | 498 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | County bootstrap, 2000 replicates, seed 12345. |
| corr_black_strict_eq | +0.60 | correlation coefficient | correlation of donor lean and Black share | Democratic-voting counties with a 2020 Black share and at least 25 reliable donors, stricter donor definition | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 463 | none (each county counted once) | DIME |   |
| corr_black_w | +0.21 | correlation coefficient | correlation of county donor lean and Black share | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.07 to 0.37 | 498 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME | County bootstrap, 2000 replicates, seed 12345. |
| county_mean_lean | +0.18 | CFscore units (negative is left) | mean of the county donor lean, each county counted once | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| county_median_lean | +0.19 | CFscore units (negative is left) | median of the county donor lean, each county counted once | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| cross_eq | 45.9% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | vote share at which a least-squares line of donor lean crosses zero | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (each county counted once) | DIME |   |
| cross_w | 44.5% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | vote share at which a least-squares line of donor lean crosses zero | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME |   |
| def_div_hi | 1,030 | counties | largest count of divergent counties across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_div_lo | 112 | counties | smallest count of divergent counties across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_dr_hi | 188 | counties | largest count of Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors across the five rows | the five definitions of the donor pool, the vote year and the pool floor | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_dr_lo | 62 | counties | smallest count of Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors across the five rows | the five definitions of the donor pool, the vote year and the pool floor | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_rl_hi | 542 | counties | largest count of Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors across the five rows | the five definitions of the donor pool, the vote year and the pool floor | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_rl_lo | 113 | counties | smallest count of Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors across the five rows | the five definitions of the donor pool, the vote year and the pool floor | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_share_hi | 36.3% | percent of counties | largest share of counties that are divergent across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| def_share_lo | 3.9% | percent of counties | smallest share of counties that are divergent across the eight rows | counties under each of the eight definitions in the definitions table (the frame differs by row) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| dem_pool_large | 6.3% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties with 1,000 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 318 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| dem_pool_small | 78.6% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties with 25 to 49 reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 28 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| donor_sd | 1.01 | CFscore units | standard deviation of donor CFscores | reliable donors in the donor file | 1980-2024 |   | 4,717,221 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| dr_median_share | 57.6% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | median county Democratic share | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |
| gap_c1 | 0.19 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors who first gave in 1980-96 | 2020 vote; donors first active 1980-96 | 95% CI 0.10 to 0.28 | 385 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| gap_c2 | 0.37 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors who first gave in 1998-2008 | 2020 vote; donors first active 1998-2008 | 95% CI 0.29 to 0.45 | 453 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| gap_c3 | 0.26 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors who first gave in 2010-16 | 2020 vote; donors first active 2010-16 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.33 | 428 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| gap_c4 | 0.32 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors who first gave in 2018-24 | 2020 vote; donors first active 2018-24 | 95% CI 0.24 to 0.40 | 436 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| gap_strict_max | 0.35 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties, largest across the four cohorts, donors with at least 15 distinct recipients | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more donors of at least 15 distinct recipients who first gave in the cohort | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.26 to 0.45 | 410 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| gap_strict_min | 0.19 | CFscore units | difference in mean county donor lean, counties at least 30% Black minus other Democratic-voting counties, smallest across the four cohorts, donors with at least 15 distinct recipients | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more donors of at least 15 distinct recipients who first gave in the cohort | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.07 to 0.30 | 346 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | Normal interval from the spread of county means within each group. |
| hisp_cut | 50% | percent of residents, Hispanic | definition of a group | counties grouped as majority Hispanic | 2020 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | County demographics panel |   |
| lean_cut | 0.25 | CFscore units | definition of a map class | cut of the map on either side of zero | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| median_pool_all | 229 | reliable donors | median pool size | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| median_pool_black30 | 170 | reliable donors | median pool size | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 126 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| median_pool_dem_other | 3,193 | reliable donors | median pool size | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 372 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| median_pool_dr | 117 | reliable donors | median pool size | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| median_votes_bl_left | 73,872 | two-party votes | median county two-party votes | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, with left-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 52 | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |
| median_votes_bl_right | 10,804 | two-party votes | median county two-party votes | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, with right-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 74 | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |
| n_balanced | 374 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with 25 or more reliable donors in every cohort | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 374 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_big_black_left | 9 | counties | count with a left-leaning donor pool | the 10 counties at least 30% Black with the most two-party votes among Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 10 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_big_div | 9 | counties | count of divergent counties | the 100 counties of the frame with the most two-party votes | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 100 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_black30_p1 | 82 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, with 100 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 82 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_black30_p2 | 43 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, with 500 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 43 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_black_frame | 498 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 498 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_black_states | 46 | states | number of states, the clusters of the regressions | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 46 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_clear | 112 | counties | count of counties in the two corner classes of the map | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_clear_dr | 27 | counties | count of counties in the Democratic-vote, right-donor corner class of the map | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_clear_dr_south | 26 | counties | count of counties | counties in the Democratic-vote, right-donor corner class, in the South | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 27 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_clear_rl | 85 | counties | count of counties in the Republican-vote, left-donor corner class of the map | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_cohort_donors_c1 | 0.4 million | donors | count of donors | reliable donors who first gave in 1980-96 | donors first active 1980-96 |   | 422,794 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_cohort_donors_c4 | 1.5 million | donors | count of donors | reliable donors who first gave in 2018-24 | donors first active 2018-24 |   | 1,482,136 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_counties | 2,839 | counties | count of counties in the frame | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_counties_all | 3,105 | counties | count of counties | counties with a pool and a return under all donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 3,105 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dem_black30 | 126 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 126 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dem_black30_right | 74 | counties | count with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 126 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dem_other | 372 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 372 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_div | 570 | counties | count of counties on the two off-diagonal sides of the sign rule | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_donors_all | 4.7 million | donors | count of donors | reliable individual donors with a CFscore and a county | 1980-2024 |   | 4,717,221 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_donors_alldef | 36.4 million | donors | count of donors | all individual donors with a CFscore and a county, reliable or not | 1980-2024 |   | 36,402,792 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_donors_frame | 4.7 million | donors | count of donors | reliable donors in the counties of the frame | 1980-2024 |   | 4,713,191 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr | 98 | counties | count of Democratic-voting counties with a right-leaning donor pool | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_2024 | 68 | counties | count of Democratic-voting counties with a right-leaning pool | counties with a pool and a return under the 2024 vote | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,835 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_all | 188 | counties | count of Democratic-voting counties with a right-leaning pool | counties with a pool and a return under all donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 3,105 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_black | 74 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors that are at least 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_hisp | 10 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors that are under 30% Black and majority Hispanic | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_hisp_tx | 8 | counties | count of counties | those majority-Hispanic counties that are in Texas | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 10 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_midwest | 3 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, in the Midwest | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 3 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_ms | 16 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, in Mississippi | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 16 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_northeast | 0 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, in the Northeast | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 0 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_other | 14 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors that are neither | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_other_even | 9 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors that are neither, with a Democratic share below the upper cut | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 14 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_refmed | 57 | counties | count of Democratic-voting counties with donor lean above the reference | counties in the frame, with the donor lean measured from the median county | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_refpool | 240 | counties | count of Democratic-voting counties with donor lean above the reference | counties in the frame, with the donor lean measured from the mean of all reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_small | 45 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors and fewer than 100 reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_south | 89 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, in the South | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 89 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_strict | 75 | counties | count of Democratic-voting counties with a right-leaning pool | counties with a pool and a return under the stricter donor definition | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,432 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_dr_west | 6 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors, in the West | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 6 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_other_p1 | 357 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black, with 100 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 357 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_other_p2 | 320 | counties | count of counties | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black, with 500 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 320 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl | 472 | counties | count of Republican-voting counties with a left-leaning donor pool | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_2024 | 522 | counties | count of Republican-voting counties with a left-leaning pool | counties with a pool and a return under the 2024 vote | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,835 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_above_line | 76 | counties | count with a Democratic share at or above the point where the county-equal fitted line crosses zero, as printed (45.9%) | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 472 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_all | 113 | counties | count of Republican-voting counties with a left-leaning pool | counties with a pool and a return under all donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 3,105 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_midwest | 184 | counties | count of counties | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors, in the Midwest | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 184 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_northeast | 73 | counties | count of counties | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors, in the Northeast | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 73 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_refmed | 973 | counties | count of Republican-voting counties with donor lean below the reference | counties in the frame, with the donor lean measured from the median county | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_refpool | 104 | counties | count of Republican-voting counties with donor lean below the reference | counties in the frame, with the donor lean measured from the mean of all reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_right_of_pool | 368 | counties | count with a donor lean above the mean CFscore of all reliable donors | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 472 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_south | 139 | counties | count of counties | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors, in the South | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 139 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_strict | 542 | counties | count of Republican-voting counties with a left-leaning pool | counties with a pool and a return under the stricter donor definition | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,432 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_rl_west | 76 | counties | count of counties | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors, in the West | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 76 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_top | 10 | counties | length of the list | each list of named counties | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_top_black30 | 10 | counties | count at least 30% Black | the ten Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 10 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_top_ms | 7 | counties | count in Mississippi | the ten Democratic-voting counties with the most right-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 10 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| n_top_rl_states | 7 | states | number of states | the ten Republican-voting counties with the most left-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 10 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| named_floor | 75 | reliable donors | minimum pool for a county to be ranked | counties named in the table | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| nat_c1 | +0.228 | CFscore units (negative is left) | mean CFscore, each donor counted once | reliable donors who first gave in 1980-96 | donors first active 1980-96 | 95% CI 0.225 to 0.230 | 422,794 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| nat_c2 | −0.081 | CFscore units (negative is left) | mean CFscore, each donor counted once | reliable donors who first gave in 1998-2008 | donors first active 1998-2008 | 95% CI −0.083 to −0.080 | 1,562,979 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| nat_c3 | −0.467 | CFscore units (negative is left) | mean CFscore, each donor counted once | reliable donors who first gave in 2010-16 | donors first active 2010-16 | 95% CI −0.469 to −0.465 | 1,249,312 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| nat_c4 | −0.457 | CFscore units (negative is left) | mean CFscore, each donor counted once | reliable donors who first gave in 2018-24 | donors first active 2018-24 | 95% CI −0.459 to −0.455 | 1,482,136 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| noise_all_n | 138 | counties | expected number of counties whose observed donor sign differs from the sign of the underlying donor mean | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | Normal model with the county standard error sd over the square root of n; flat prior. |
| noise_all_share | 4.9% | percent of counties | expected share of counties whose observed donor sign differs from the underlying sign | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| noise_div_n | 56 | counties | expected number of divergent counties whose underlying donor sign is the aligned one | divergent counties in the frame | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 570 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | Normal model with the county standard error; flat prior. |
| noise_div_share | 9.8% | percent of divergent counties | expected share of divergent counties whose underlying donor sign is the aligned one | divergent counties in the frame | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 570 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| noise_eb_n | 83 | counties | expected number of divergent counties whose underlying donor sign is the aligned one, county means shrunk toward a line in the Democratic share | divergent counties in the frame | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 570 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | Normal model; underlying county means scatter around a least-squares line in the Democratic share with standard deviation 0.27 (method of moments). |
| noise_eb_share | 14.5% | percent of divergent counties | expected share of divergent counties whose underlying donor sign is the aligned one, county means shrunk toward a line in the Democratic share | divergent counties in the frame | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 570 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| pool_chk1 | 100 | reliable donors | minimum pool | pool floor of a check on the Black share comparison | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| pool_chk2 | 500 | reliable donors | minimum pool | pool floor of a check on the Black share comparison | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| pool_floor | 25 | reliable donors | definition of the frame (minimum pool) | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| pool_mean_all | −0.274 | CFscore units (negative is left) | mean CFscore, each donor counted once | reliable donors in the donor file | 1980-2024 | 95% CI −0.275 to −0.273 | 4,717,221 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME | Donors are administrative records, so the interval treats them as independent draws. |
| r_all_eq | −0.67 | correlation coefficient | correlation of county Democratic share and county donor lean | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI −0.70 to −0.65 | 2,839 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | County bootstrap, 2000 replicates, seed 12345. |
| r_all_w | −0.85 | correlation coefficient | correlation of county Democratic share and county donor lean | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI −0.87 to −0.83 | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME | County bootstrap, 2000 replicates, seed 12345. |
| recipients_min | 8 | distinct recipients | definition of a reliable donor | donors counted as reliable | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| recipients_strict | 15 | distinct recipients | definition of the stricter check | donors in the stricter check | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| rel_share_c1 | 19.3% | percent of donors | share of donors who are reliable | individual donors with a CFscore and a county who first gave in 1980-96 | donors first active 1980-96 |   | 2,195,412 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| rel_share_c4 | 9.6% | percent of donors | share of donors who are reliable | individual donors with a CFscore and a county who first gave in 2018-24 | donors first active 2018-24 |   | 15,418,884 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| rep_pool_large | 36.5% | percent of counties | share with a left-leaning donor pool | Republican-voting counties with 1,000 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 301 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| rep_pool_small | 12.9% | percent of counties | share with a left-leaning donor pool | Republican-voting counties with 25 to 49 reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 318 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| rl_median_share | 38.4% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | median county Democratic share | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 472 | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |
| rr_median_share | 26.2% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | median county Democratic share | Republican-voting counties with right-leaning donors | 2020 |   | 1,863 | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |
| share_black30_right_p1 | 43.9% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, with 100 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 82 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_black30_right_p2 | 30.2% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black, with 500 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 43 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_clear | 3.9% | percent of counties | share of counties in the two corner classes | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_clear_votes | 1.2% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in the two corner classes | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 | DIME |   |
| share_dem_black30_right | 58.7% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, at least 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 126 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_dem_other_right | 6.5% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 372 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_div | 20.1% | percent of counties | share of counties whose donor lean and vote lean have opposite signs | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_div_donors | 12.7% | percent of reliable donors | share of reliable donors living in divergent counties | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | reliable donors | DIME |   |
| share_div_refmed | 36.3% | percent of counties | share of divergent counties | counties in the frame, with the donor lean measured from the median county | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_div_votes | 16.0% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in divergent counties | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 | DIME |   |
| share_dr_near_even | 38.8% | percent of counties | share with a Democratic share below the upper cut | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_dr_near_zero | 50.0% | percent of counties | share with donor lean within the cut of zero | Democratic-voting counties with right-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 98 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_other_right_p1 | 4.8% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black, with 100 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 357 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_other_right_p2 | 4.1% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning donor pool | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income, under 30% Black, with 500 or more reliable donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 320 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_reliable | 13.0% | percent of donors | share of donors who are reliable | all individual donors with a CFscore and a county | 1980-2024 |   | 36,402,792 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_right_c1 | 86.8% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning cohort pool | Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black with 25 or more reliable donors who first gave in 1980-96 | 2020 vote; donors first active 1980-96 |   | 68 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_right_c4 | 22.5% | percent of counties | share with a right-leaning cohort pool | Democratic-voting counties at least 30% Black with 25 or more reliable donors who first gave in 2018-24 | 2020 vote; donors first active 2018-24 |   | 80 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_rl_near_even | 19.9% | percent of counties | share with a Democratic share at or above the lower cut | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 472 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_rl_near_zero | 73.1% | percent of counties | share with donor lean within the cut of zero | Republican-voting counties with left-leaning donors | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 472 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_rl_northeast | 63.5% | percent of counties | share with a left-leaning donor pool | Republican-voting counties in the Northeast | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 115 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_rl_south | 12.5% | percent of counties | share with a left-leaning donor pool | Republican-voting counties in the South | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 1,115 | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| share_votes_dr | 4.5% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in these counties | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 | DIME |   |
| share_votes_rl | 11.6% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in these counties | counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 two-party presidential return (the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii) | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   | 2,839 | two-party votes in 2020 | DIME |   |
| slope_net_eq | +0.068 | CFscore units per 10 points of Black share | regression coefficient of county donor lean net of college share and median income, ordinary least squares | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.042 to 0.094 | 498 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | State-clustered standard errors (46 states). |
| slope_net_w | +0.028 | CFscore units per 10 points of Black share | regression coefficient of county donor lean net of college share and median income, weighted least squares | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI −0.006 to 0.062 | 498 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME | State-clustered standard errors (46 states). |
| slope_raw_eq | +0.101 | CFscore units per 10 points of Black share | regression coefficient of county donor lean on Black share alone, ordinary least squares | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.077 to 0.125 | 498 | none (each county counted once) | DIME | State-clustered standard errors (46 states). |
| slope_raw_w | +0.040 | CFscore units per 10 points of Black share | regression coefficient of county donor lean on Black share alone, weighted least squares | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 | 95% CI 0.005 to 0.075 | 498 | two-party votes in 2020 (county-equal in the companion fact) | DIME | State-clustered standard errors (46 states). |
| slope_step | 10 points | percentage points of Black share or college share | scale of the regression coefficients | Democratic-voting counties in that frame with a Black share, a college share and a median income | 2020 presidential vote; donors 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | DIME |   |
| vote_hi | 55% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | definition of a map class | upper cut of the map | 2020 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |
| vote_lo | 45% | percent Democratic, two-party vote | definition of a map class | lower cut of the map | 2020 |   |   | none (full counts of counties) | County election returns |   |

## Definitions

- CFscore: A left-right position estimated from whom a donor gives to, or from who gives to a candidate. Negative values are left and positive values are right, and a donor keeps one score across all their giving.
- Correlation: A number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other.
- Standard deviation: A measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out.
- Confidence interval: A range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.
- Clustered standard errors: Standard errors that allow answers within the same group, such as the same county or the same week, to be related. They are wider than ordinary errors when members of a group resemble each other.
- Ecological inference: Drawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.

## Methods

Sample. 2,839 counties with at least 25 reliable donors and a 2020 presidential return, from the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. Alaska is dropped from the returns, and the county-matched donor file has no donors in Alaska or Hawaii (the DIME donor file has records in both states; the county match excluded Alaska by design and returned no Hawaii county). Two counties are recoded to their successors (Bedford city to Bedford County, Virginia; Shannon to Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota).

Donors. Individual donors in the Stanford DIME public version 4.0 with a CFscore and a most recent county, 36,402,792 in all, of whom 4,717,221 are reliable (at least 8 distinct recipients, and a score not inherited from a recipient).

Measures. The county donor lean is the mean CFscore of the county's reliable donors (positive is right, negative is left); the county vote is the Democratic share of the 2020 two-party presidential vote from the repaired county file. A county is divergent when it voted Democratic (share above 50%) and its donor lean is positive, or voted Republican and its donor lean is negative. Zero is the neutral point of the CFscore scale, and the definitions table repeats the count with the mean of all reliable donors and with the median county as the neutral point. A county clears both cut points when its Democratic share is 55% or more with a donor lean of 0.25 or more, or its share is below 45% with a lean below −0.25, assigned on unrounded values. Regions are the four Census Bureau regions.

Weights and intervals. Shares and counts count each county once; correlations and regressions are reported twice, counting each county once and weighting by 2020 two-party votes; donors are not weighted. Correlations across counties use a county bootstrap (2,000 replicates, seed 12345); regression coefficients use standard errors clustered on state (46 states); the fitted line in the scatter of donor lean on the Democratic share counts each county once and has a band from state-clustered standard errors; group means of counties use a normal interval from the spread of county means; a donor mean uses its standard error and treats donors as independent. County counts and shares are full counts and carry no interval.

Noise benchmark. The probability that a county's underlying donor mean has the other sign is the normal probability of a value beyond the county mean in units of its standard error, summed over counties; a second version shrinks each county mean toward a least-squares line in the Democratic share, with the variance of the true county means estimated by the method of moments, and gives the higher count.

Pool floors and cohorts. The Black share comparison is repeated for counties with at least 100 and at least 500 reliable donors. Cohorts group donors by the election cycle of their first record (1980 to 1996, 1998 to 2008, 2010 to 2016, 2018 to 2024); the cohort gaps are repeated with donors of at least 15 distinct recipients, and the share of donors who are reliable is reported by cohort.

Suppression. A county needs at least 25 reliable donors (and in a cohort view at least 25 donors who first gave in the cohort); counties are named only with at least 75; a band of a bar chart needs at least 10 counties on a side.

Missing data. Ten counties lack a college share or median income (the eight Connecticut counties, whose 2020 boundaries changed, De Baca, New Mexico, and Jeff Davis, Texas); the Democratic-voting ones, all in Connecticut, drop out of the Black share correlations and regressions only.

Vote-year check. 2024 returns from the repaired file, without four Missouri counties whose 2024 returns exclude Kansas City.

## What these data cannot show

- A county's donor lean describes the donors in the county and not any resident, and a pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among people, the problem known as ecological inference [2].
- DIME does not record the race, income or vote of a donor, so the Black share results say that donor leans differ between counties with different Black shares and cannot say who the donors in those counties are.
- Studies that observe donors directly find that Black and Latino donors supply smaller shares of contributions than of the population [3], and a study that merges survey responses to donation records compares donors with non-donors [4].
- Those studies are about individuals and neither tests nor contradicts the county pattern here.
- The files do not say which candidates a donor gave to.
- A CFscore is an estimate from the recipients' positions, and the chapter cannot separate a donor who gives to Republican candidates from one who gives to moderate Democrats.
- Geography is the most recent record, so a donor who moved is counted where the last gift came from, and a county's pool spans giving from 1980 to 2024 while the vote is a single election.
- The reliable-donor rule keeps the donors who gave to many recipients, and the counts in Table 10 change when it is relaxed.
- No threshold below 8 distinct recipients was tested.
- The divergence rule pivots on the sign of a mean at zero, which is not the middle of the county distribution, since the median county has a donor lean of +0.19.
- The chapter also leaves out donor dollars, and it does not test any mechanism.
- Whether the donor lean of a county reflects who can give or who is asked cannot be separated with county means.
- How a county's stated ideology compares with its donors' is the subject of Planned, Stated and funded ideology (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/stated-and-funded-ideology; planned), and how donors who live in counties their side lost behave is the subject of Planned, Partisans in the other party's territory (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/partisans-outvoted-at-home; planned).
- A county with a small pool has a noisy mean, and the intervals on individual counties treat donors as independent draws, which understates the uncertainty if donors in a county resemble each other.

## References

1. Bonica, Adam (2014). Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. American Journal of Political Science 58(2): 367-386. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12062
2. Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357. https://doi.org/10.2307/2087176
3. Grumbach, Jacob M.; Sahn, Alexander (2020). Race and Representation in Campaign Finance. American Political Science Review 114(1): 206-221. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000637
4. Hill, Seth J.; Huber, Gregory A. (2017). Representativeness and Motivations of the Contemporary Donorate: Results from Merged Survey and Administrative Records. Political Behavior 39(1): 3-29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-016-9343-y

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/build.py (sha256 0034dffb5087fc8654308e1dd799189e2965b167b7f2afaccc9287aadb62f4f8)
- Built on: 2026-09-30
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| data/county/county_demographics_2000_2024.parquet | 4,334,220 | 45cdaf63128da1aa0c12e1196d7e60835697d7432ab9bff1acd2f5559fdb5130 | 90293a64867bf37645b53eaf5ab343f3b284c0d2c3fc3b8e0f38d32f1649fee4 |
| data/county/pres_county_1868_2024.parquet | 6,295,675 | bec11c7a0cb5d4180bbd6809d048bc892dd00dfcdde527fa4da871b1dd3f835f | b2a4f000f2eea72d09af8939555289e924875cca40cd95ec8869104cd575bed7 |
| data/dime/proj/donor_geo.parquet | 454,097,716 | 431c728357416b580a013fa84a4a0c2bbbb60138df5107331b3defd67deef181 | 954449d38b21d1d754c6804e0736544b802ca2a2503acafbe0bd3ca67aab9f10 |
| C:/github/politics-book/lib/geo/us-counties-2020.v1.json | 193,748 | 6474d2da777fefee9adf1cc1827cb947987896aaa1183a223968430114e19009 | 6474d2da777fefee9adf1cc1827cb947987896aaa1183a223968430114e19009 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | e38d402e8fd3e85677d4421bf73c25cc2ec6008acd7f88662ecba724a1adc740 |
| figures/black_pool_floor.json | 732d732e891c116e26b28873f71746a5d49fec85a9c2ccd132b264b2fd908a91 |
| figures/black_share_gradient.json | 23cc152a6f56d32bc3be5f9cd78188c8352aeb27b997734baf3db513bc08dca9 |
| figures/black_slopes.json | b0af26f3198519f3b3e66b75c5d81ab37901afd3a17a014a79767318ad8d46ae |
| figures/cohorts.json | 12cb69f4de27f7c63779c0f814d0b0d2902e6e135c2d1e45293a9670a0660417 |
| figures/definitions.json | 6340f53784e56aa62043aa4e52353f491ed1d9cd0926ffc5268a6f2ba659ad50 |
| figures/donor_vote_map.json | 07261a7eb1e2ca870f3e265a5d8952d55b06aa322a1c88b67dbf639c88e2f29f |
| figures/donor_vs_vote.json | 3319c838a734f9443bb8f6bc30657f634dbb8fe0dfab5a605b4d80595ae41e3c |
| figures/named_counties.json | 329ed238858fa166bc9bedb66c6cf82ae8f5a5be10dfae149edca4ca441d9937 |
| figures/pool_size.json | f222733770db2046b5a37c48ab2981f83b7fc1bf4675185f50b759245d2201b1 |
| figures/regions.json | 36345d3838e65c29e0d22d42c57cc4abc8f14d0378be022177491625a1f80ae3 |
| figures/who_diverges.json | 2921e113570b41ea90a94352f288ebe47bf47758787d89d783f82697252e93fe |
| meta.json | b59165872cab3e3c8733b4f1187148ac505eaecae793c86d2dc19f1ad09da290 |
| public/data/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/donor_vote_map.json | b0a76b3e1c74723aeb2e0aa8c9137d77c10e1e00d8b122d4439a068ee10444df |
| refs.json | 5042fa39bf2af677f8a768f9f76c08ab600ba25c63a1a10516b8c62ca60c4290 |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "donor_vote_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/donor_vote_map.json
- Table 2, figure "donor_vs_vote" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/donor_vs_vote.json
- Table 3, figure "who_diverges" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/who_diverges.json
- Table 4, figure "black_pool_floor" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/black_pool_floor.json
- Table 5, figure "black_share_gradient" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/black_share_gradient.json
- Table 6, figure "black_slopes" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/black_slopes.json
- Table 7, figure "named_counties" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/named_counties.json
- Table 8, figure "pool_size" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/pool_size.json
- Table 9, figure "regions" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/regions.json
- Table 10, figure "definitions" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/definitions.json
- Table 11, figure "cohorts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/figures/cohorts.json
- Payload of "donor_vote_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/counties-where-donors-and-voters-diverge/donor_vote_map.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt