{
  "alt": "Dot chart with one row per training size. The classifier's share of money-back complaints caught rises with each larger size and passes the vertical line marking Jev in the middle of the range.",
  "caption": "Read down the rows: each dot is the mean of refits on that many past complaints, and its whisker runs from the lowest to the highest refit, which is not a confidence interval. Each count includes the fifth held out for calibration. The vertical line is Jev, which uses none of them.",
  "data": [
    {
      "caught": 34,
      "conf_high": 51.9,
      "conf_low": 11.2,
      "labels": "100 complaints"
    },
    {
      "caught": 49.3,
      "conf_high": 59.5,
      "conf_low": 30.5,
      "labels": "300 complaints"
    },
    {
      "caught": 58.8,
      "conf_high": 65.3,
      "conf_low": 53.1,
      "labels": "1,000 complaints"
    },
    {
      "caught": 66.4,
      "conf_high": 69.1,
      "conf_low": 63.6,
      "labels": "3,000 complaints"
    },
    {
      "caught": 69.9,
      "conf_high": 72.9,
      "conf_low": 66.6,
      "labels": "10,000 complaints"
    },
    {
      "caught": 74.9,
      "conf_high": 75.9,
      "conf_low": 74.2,
      "labels": "30,000 complaints"
    }
  ],
  "id": "outcomes-to-catch-up",
  "source": "CFPB Consumer Complaint Database, 2025 distinct narratives with narratives of at most 3,000 characters; 10,000 sampled, weighted; engine calls October 2026; ten refits per size, three at the largest",
  "spec": {
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "reference": 58.2,
    "referenceLabel": "Jev, no outcomes",
    "sort": "data",
    "valueLabels": true,
    "x": "caught",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      100
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Money-back complaints caught (%)",
    "y": "labels"
  },
  "subtitle": "Money-back complaints caught in the top tenth, percent, against past complaints used to train the classifier, weighted",
  "title": "For money back, the classifier matches Jev with about a thousand past complaints",
  "type": "dot"
}